We have already written about what the world may expect in the next 10-15 years, when self-driving cars become a reality, 3-D printing develops and the cost of solar energy production decreases. And that all this will lead to the fact that 70-80% of current jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

Of course, these are only forecasts, but they are supported by very real historical examples. Here are just a few professions that were very popular in the last century and disappeared without a trace thanks to the triumph of the industrial revolution.

Disappeared professions of the last century

1. Coachman

“The horse was, is and will be, but the automobile is just a fashionable fad,” - so in 1903 the president of the Michigan Savings Bank tried to dissuade lawyer Horace Rackham from investing in Henry Ford's enterprise.

Then the overwhelming majority of the population agreed with him, and certainly the coachmen themselves refused to believe that their profession could disappear almost overnight due to the spread of cars, and later public transport.

Along with coachmen, coachmen also disappeared - this profession has flourished in Russia since the 17th century. Coachmen were in public service, lived in special “Yamsk” settlements and received cash and gunpowder salaries from the treasury. They delivered mail, government cargo, transported officials and generally played an important role in the country's economy before the spread of railway transport.

2. Wheeler

Wheelwrights, the craftsmen who made wheels, carts and carriages, and also repaired vehicles that had become a thing of the past, also found themselves out of work. Now only last names and village names remind of this profession.

3. Telephone operator

The invention of automatic telephone exchanges first threatened and then completely destroyed the profession of telephone operator.

Representatives of this profession were mainly girls. Telephone operators sat at a special board, switching and connecting telephone lines to each other. The work was quite nervous - according to the standards, only eight seconds were allotted for a manual connection, the call could be interrupted. Telephone operators worked manually until the 1980s - this system continued to be used for international calls.

4. Ice Maker

The refrigerator, which appeared in the 40s of the twentieth century, caused the disappearance of another interesting profession - ice harvester.

It is now impossible to imagine life without a refrigerator, but less than a century ago food was stored in special cabinets with ice - glaciers (it’s scary to even imagine how people survived in the summer). The harvesters cut blocks of ice from frozen lakes and rivers and delivered them to homes.

5. Alarm Clock Man

The profession of an alarm clock man (in English he was called a knocker-up, which would be more correctly translated as “a person who wakes up by knocking”) existed in England and Ireland during the Industrial Revolution. The job of the “wake-up snitches” was to wake up workers before their shifts. In order to reach the windows of the second floors, they used long and light bamboo sticks. “Alarm clock workers” earned a few pence a week and this part-time job was great for women and older people who could not work in the factory. The profession went down in history only in the 20s of the last century.

6. Reader at the Factory

Another interesting product of the Industrial Revolution is the reader or lecturer, as he was sometimes called. This is not about education or scientific reports in lecture halls. The readers entertained the workers during the production process, since work in factories was very dull and monotonous. Readers were often hired by the workers themselves, raising money to pay for their labor on their own. Usually, newspapers or entertaining texts were read to workers, but at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, agitators began to actively use readers - instead of newspapers, left-wing political manifestos appeared in the hands of lecturers. Of course, factory owners did not like this, and in the 1920s, readers were replaced by radio in most countries.

But on Liberty Island, readers still exist. Last year, Cubans officially celebrated the 150th anniversary of the profession of “tobacco factory reader,” which is believed to have originated on December 21, 1865. In connection with the anniversary, the Cuban government even contacted UNESCO with a proposal to add this profession to the List of World Intangible Cultural Heritage.

Currently, more than 300 people work as professional readers in tobacco factories in Cuba - all of them are government employees. They devote only 90 minutes a day to reading texts, and devote the rest of the working day to preparing materials for the next reading and discussing what they read with workers.

7. Calculator

Before the invention of the computer, there was a profession called a computer. Calculators performed long and tedious calculations by hand and worked in teams. Each team member did his part of the work, so the team worked in parallel.

The work of computer scientists on the Manhattan Project (the code name for the US nuclear weapons program) was very important during World War II. It was performed by six female computer scientists. After the end of the war, computer scientists worked at NASA on projects related to flight. Later, the need for this profession disappeared due to the development of computers.

8. Typist

Another popular female profession that has become a thing of the past with the advent of computers is typist, that is, typist of texts on a typewriter. Of course, the specialty “computer typist” appeared, but the popularity of these professions is incomparable - the copying function changed the world of text creators.

And since the conversation turned to information carriers, why not remember another profession that has sunk into oblivion - the scribe, which disappeared with the advent of printing. The scribe professionally copied books and documents by hand. Historically, scribes conducted the affairs of large landowners, kings, kept chronicles at temples and cities, and also copied various significant texts, including chronicles and sacred scriptures.

9. Lamplighter

Before the invention of electric lanterns, large cities were illuminated using candle or gas lanterns, which were lit by lamplighters. To climb onto the lantern, they used long ladders and lit it with matches or oil lamps. Their functions included: lighting and extinguishing lanterns, filling tanks with flammable liquids and repairing lanterns.

The profession partially disappeared with the advent of gas lamps, which were automatically lit at a certain time, without human intervention. The advent of electricity finally put an end to it, but completely new professions appeared - network engineers and electricians.

10. Radar Man

It's hard to imagine, but before radar was invented, radar functions were performed manually by human radar men, using acoustic mirrors and listening devices to detect the sound of approaching aircraft's engines. In the first half of the last century, the profession was considered to be in great demand. But they had one significant drawback: they picked up the frequencies of aircraft flying at low speed, and also could not distinguish a military vehicle from a civilian one.

11. Barge haulers

The advent of steamships contributed to the disappearance of the profession of barge haulers. Barge haulers were the name given to hired workers in Russia in the 16th and early 20th centuries, who, walking along the shore, pulled river boats against the current with the help of a tow. The work was seasonal: boats were pulled in spring and autumn. The work of barge haulers was very hard and monotonous. The speed of movement depended on the strength of the wind.

In the Russian Empire, the city of Rybinsk was called the “capital of barge haulers” from the beginning of the 19th century. During the summer navigation, a quarter of all Russian barge haulers passed through it.

12. Rafter

It was not easy for the timber raftsmen either, because they performed the functions of the current trucks that collect logs and deliver them for processing. Previously, the process of transporting timber looked like this: in winter, felled trees were piled on the frozen surface of the river, in spring the ice melted and the logs began to float downstream. Strong and strong men walked along the shore with long sticks, guiding the logs and removing various obstacles from their path. The profession disappeared in the early 20th century with the expansion of the railroad and the advent of portable sawmills.

13. Water carrier and water carrier

Before the advent of centralized water supply, water was delivered to homes by water carriers. They collected water from the source, poured it into containers and transported it or carried it home.

The invention of plumbing did not immediately destroy this profession. In St. Petersburg in the middle of the 19th century, there were 37 water pumps; From them water carriers carried water in buckets throughout the city. Because without water, as you know, “it’s neither here nor there.” Only in the 20th century did this profession finally disappear in Europe.

So

Should we be afraid of the coming total unemployment? For some reason we think not.

Judge for yourself. The eight-hour working day was introduced in the 19th century, during the industrial revolution in England - before that, factory workers worked 14-16 hours a day. More than 100 years have passed, technology has developed and workers in all industries have acquired the ability to produce a much larger volume of work in a short period of time. It would be logical to expect that this would lead to a shorter workday. And the invention of the computer should have left half the planet unemployed.

But this has not happened yet - there is more and more work, or rather “busyness”, and less and less time. This means that some other mechanisms are at work here - “universal employment” is beneficial to everyone. But that's a completely different conversation.

Which specialties have already become history forever, which are on the verge of extinction, and which are just emerging - this is what this article is about.

Why are some professions disappearing?

In the 21st century, society is developing rapidly. At the same time, the appearance of settlements changes, new cities emerge and existing ones grow rapidly, and a modern way of life is born. In huge production workshops, human labor has been replaced by automatic robots, some types of activities have been transformed beyond recognition compared to past centuries and even past decades, others are completely disappearing into oblivion. In this regard, the concept of “disappearing professions” appeared. We will talk about them in detail below.

Along with the changing reality, many profession names are consigned to history. Some simply transform their name into another designation, but there are also those that completely cease to exist. You can no longer meet their representatives on the street; information can be found in historical archives, and seen only in a movie or theater production.

Professions that don't exist

Disappearing professions cease to be relevant. Due to the rapid development of science and technology, some specialties are losing demand. Machines replace human hands and handle almost all crafts much faster and more efficiently. Automation of many processes significantly reduces the cost of production and at the same time increases the productivity of any process. Serious negative consequences of this include loss of jobs, increased unemployment, and, as a consequence, impoverishment of the population and increase in the world population. Therefore, today the state is making a lot of efforts to ensure that everyone can master a profession that is relevant to current reality. It is important for everyone to learn and gain skills in those areas that humanity needs.

An excursion into the past

Let's remember the old professions that lost their popularity and remained only on the pages of history. The names of some of them are known, others sound alien and completely unfamiliar.

TOP professions that have ceased to exist:

• Daguerreotypists. They created the first portrait photographs. There were no cameras then, but only silver plates on which the very first photographs were taken. They were replaced by photographers who clicked film. But this is a completely different type of work, therefore, we can safely say that daguerreotypists have already become part of history.
• Chimney sweeps. They regularly went out in search of dirty chimneys. Not a single family could do without their efforts and labor. The modern generation knows about this specialty only thanks to myths and fairy tales that have survived to this day. Chimney sweeps were held in high esteem because chimneys and fireplaces prevented fires.
• Pied Pipers. Surely many have never heard such profession names. But in fact, this was a very important and dangerous position; these people could be compared to superheroes. They saved entire cities from the invasion of rodents, which were real carriers of dirt and disease. It was rats that brought the plague, which in the 16th century destroyed half of Europe. Today, many countries strictly monitor order, preventing the spread of sewage and garbage. If necessary, clean public areas regularly using strong poisons and other pest control products. In the past, tens of thousands of rats were killed by hand.

Continuation of the list

• Stonebreakers. Hard labor during which people died. Workers crushed rocks used for construction around the clock. Nowadays, stone extraction is carried out by specialized equipment controlled by humans.
• Lamplighters. Every evening they went to work with long sticks, lit street lamps and kept the city illuminated. Of course, it is hard to imagine that electricity once did not exist.
• Telephone operators. They existed quite recently, but today, in the “world of the mobile phone,” such old professions have ceased to exist. And once upon a time, in order to hear the desired subscriber, it was necessary to contact the telephone operator, who redirected the signal to the desired point.
• Typists. Women in all printing establishments spent hours typing texts, hammering like a machine gun on the keys of a typewriter. It's hard to imagine that anyone today works on this outdated device.
• Counters. At the workplace of these women there were only abacus and paper with a pen for notes. In every company, the accountant had a lady reporting to her, who knew how to add up numbers on bone accounts in seconds. After all, just a few decades ago there was no calculator, and complex calculations were made on abacuses. Only women were hired, as they approached it more responsibly and were particularly persevering.
• Coachman- cab driver, drove a horse-drawn carriage. But with the advent of the automobile, people stopped moving in strollers and phaetons, which is why the need for this specialty disappeared.
• Profession shoe shiner was once in great demand. Dirty shoes are bad manners, so all high-ranking and simply neat men regularly stood at the chairs around which young boys with brushes and shoe polish were spinning.

Little-Known Vanished Professions

The list of disappeared professions includes those that are well known to many. And there were also little-known ones: beacon makers, balagols, coopers, komashniks.

In the 15th-18th centuries, the position of kisser was common. These people mainly monitored the replenishment of the treasury, the payment of capitation and quitrents by peasants (why not the tax inspectorate?), participated in trials and police supervision. Upon taking office, they swore an oath of honesty and kissed the cross.

Construction could not be done without digging, pouring, transporting and slabs. Today their work is performed by excavators, cranes and other equipment.

There were many other specialties without which it was difficult to imagine society in the past.

Professions that are disappearing

Experts regularly keep records of those on the verge of extinction. Vanishing professions are known to everyone today. The super-fast progress of technology and the development of the Internet are creating new jobs, but at the same time we have to say goodbye to the usual crafts.

Here are examples of professions that will cease to exist in the near future. These However, as a consolation to many, we can say that the old ones are being replaced by new activities, the list of which is constantly updated.

Vanishing professions:

• Packer. Enterprises will no longer need manual packaging; people will soon be replaced by robots. Machines don't require days off, they don't need sick days, and they don't argue with their bosses. Many companies and factories are already switching to full automation of production.
• Conductor. Modern public transport is equipped with a turnstile. It is installed in front of the entrance. To use the bus, you need to insert a card or insert the required bill. It turns out that there is no need for a person who catches “hares” and sells travel tickets.
• Postman, cashier.
• Librarian.
• Journalist. They will be replaced by numerous copywriters.
• Call center operator.
• Watchman, concierge, elevator operator, waiter.
• Logistician
• Miner.
• Seamstress, weaver, potter.
• Accountant, economist.
• Architect.

Reducing the list of village artisans

Many rural professions are disappearing. There are fewer and fewer mowers, field workers, fruit pickers, blacksmiths and shepherds. Their work is performed by combines, cultivators, and garden equipment. There are practically no horses on farms anymore, so there is no work for blacksmiths. And cows are increasingly seen only on large farms, so shepherds are disappearing. The process of reducing rural processes is especially pronounced in economically developed capitalist countries, while in developing countries manual labor in the fields is still in demand.

Simple and understandable specialties are closely intertwined with the world of high-tech technologies. Science and electronics are rapidly gaining momentum, and many countries simply cannot keep up with the progress. This is probably why in some parts of our country there are professions that have long since become history in Europe.

One of the consequences of the collapse of the USSR

Separately, it is worth noting the professions of the USSR that ceased to exist with the collapse of the country.

Everyone studied and strived to take their place in the party nomenklatura. Even the most outstanding instructor of the district committee of the CPSU sounded proud and respectable. Not to mention the secretaries of the district committee and others. The pioneer leaders who guided the pioneers on the right path and organized their leisure time also disappeared. Many professions in the USSR disappeared simultaneously with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics itself.

Indirect consequences of the disappearance of many professions

Just 50 years ago, careers were linear, calibrated and stable. In his youth, a person chose a profession to his liking, received the appropriate education, and spent his entire life doing one thing. Today the picture is completely different. In the age of hyper-fast technology, this model no longer works. A person has to study all his life, mastering new, usually narrow, specialties.

High competition, fear of unemployment and constant mental stress - all this negatively affects human health, his psyche, giving rise to neuroses, depression and mental disorders. As a result of constant employment, insufficient attention is paid to family and children, and simple human connections are lost. This, in turn, gives rise to juvenile crime, which very quickly develops into “adult” crime.

One of the consequences of the rapidly changing reality and the disappearance of many professions is an increase in unemployment, impoverishment of the population, and a drop in the birth rate, which in a chain reaction gives rise to social tension.

This is the kind of “black” relationship that a New York analytical agency has built.

Professions of the future

Dying professions will certainly be replaced by new ones that meet modern realities. Every year, leading educational institutions undergo certification to obtain permission to teach new crafts. And they are directly related to robots, nanotechnology and computers.

Here is a list of specialties that are likely to be needed in the future:

• Cyber ​​Janitor- will restore order on the Internet.
• City caretaker- Responsible for greening the city.
• Master Printer- 3D printing specialist.
• Personal Chronicler- will establish all your roots and create a family history.
• Microflora specialist.
• Drone operator.

Today these are just theoretical conclusions. But once upon a time, being an astronaut was considered a fantastic profession.

In 1903–14 capital banks very quickly subjugated provincial ones, turning them into their branches. The same process began in 1995, when after

After a short period of proliferation of peripheral banks in all cities and towns, the time had come for them to be absorbed by the capital's giants. The Central Bank of Russia has blocked lending channels. Reason: hundreds of false banks deceived the trust of several million Russians and, having collected decent funds from them, collapsed, and the leaders tried to hide abroad. According to statistics, due to the activities of financial pyramids and scammers of all stripes, our country suffered in the 90s. more than 82 million people.

– What do you know about this process? Please help, I searched the entire Internet and found nothing

Comrades, save us!

Here's the question: Find data in media materials on wages for workers in various sectors of the economy, as well as professions in the government and non-government sectors. State the reasons for the difference in their salaries.

Get acquainted with the thoughts of the German philosopher and sociologist (20th century) R. Dahrendorf on conflict management. 1.[...] Negotiations, i.e.

The creation of a body in which the conflicting parties meet regularly for the purpose of negotiating all sensitive topics related to the conflict and making decisions in established ways appropriate to the circumstances (majority, qualified majority, veto majority, unanimous). However, this possibility alone is rarely enough: negotiations may remain fruitless. In such a situation, it is recommended to involve a third party, i.e. persons or authorities not involved in the conflict. 2. The mildest form of third party participation is mediation, that is, the agreement of the parties to listen to the mediator from time to time and consider his proposals. Despite the seeming unnecessary

This course of action, mediation (for example, the UN Secretary-General, the Federal Chancellor, etc.) often turns out to be a highly effective regulatory tool. 3. However, it is often necessary to take the next step to arbitration, i.e., to the fact that either an appeal to a third party, or in the case of such an appeal, the execution of its decision is mandatory. This situation characterizes the position of legal institutions in some (in particular, international) conflicts. 4. If it is mandatory for participants to both contact a third party and accept their decision, requiredarbitration lies on the border between regulation and suppression of conflict.

This method may sometimes be necessary (to preserve the form of government, perhaps also to ensure peace in the international field), but when used, conflict management as a control of their forms remains doubtful.

It must be emphasized once again that conflicts do not disappear by regulating them. Where there is society, there are also conflicts. However, forms of regulation influence the violence of conflicts. Managed conflict is to a certain extent mitigated: although it continues and can be extremely intense, it occurs in forms compatible with the continuously changing social structure. Conflict may be the father of all things, that is, the driving force of change, but conflict should not be war and should not be civil war. Perhaps, the rational curbing of social conflicts is one of the central tasks of politics.

Questions and assignments to the source. 1) Which of the two positions in assessing social conflict does the author share? Support your opinion with words from the document. 2) What is the role of mediation in conflict resolution? Why does the author call it a soft form of third party participation? What is the difference between arbitration and mediation? 3) Why is compulsory arbitration seen as a form that straddles the line between conflict regulation and conflict suppression? 4) What do you think gives the author grounds to claim that conflicts do not disappear by regulating them? Do you agree with this statement? What is your point of view based on?

The lightning pace of the industrial and technological revolution can not only delight futurists with previously unavailable opportunities, but also directly influence the labor market. In addition to the fact that they will give rise to a lot of new, very, very exotic professions, they will also contribute to the disappearance of a number of professions that are quite relevant today into the past. Time is fleeting, and along with such obsolete professions as elevator operators, watchmen and stenographers, competencies that appeared quite recently, back in the 90s, will disappear into oblivion.

As sad as it may be, time takes its toll.

According to the calculations of specialists from Skolkovo, by 2030, the domestic labor market will get rid of 57 professions that exist quite successfully today, and will be replaced by 186 new specialties, the names of many of which may shock you. What is it worth, for example, a bioethicist, a startup mentor, or, in general, a trend watcher/foresighter?! So that you are prepared for the new reality of the labor market, Careerist.ru decided to figure out what is happening with professions, and who should choose a new specialty.

15 years of changes

The Atlas of New Professions is a directory prepared by Skolkovo specialists back in 2015, in which they tried to reflect promising and, conversely, dying industries and professions for the next 15-20 years. According to the authors, it should help to understand which industries will actively develop, what technologies and products will be born in them, what specialists will be required, and which will cease to be relevant. As for the latter, among them scientists have identified 57 professions. It is noteworthy that among them you can find both intellectual labor specialties and blue-collar professions. Among specialties based on complex pre-training, computers will primarily replace specialists in transcription, translation, document management, budgeting, archives, notary databases, analytical documents and other specialists whose work is related to data systematization.

It is noteworthy that these are far from the most difficult professions that are threatened by computers. Among them were also dispatchers and medical specialists in diagnosing diseases. As for real estate agents and travel agency workers, everything is natural here - the development of online services encourages people to order travel services and buy real estate on their own - after all, these are just intermediaries generating added value.

Except them, The number of unclaimed professionals by 2030 will include economists, accountants, lawyers and managers. Already today, there is an oversupply of managers and lawyers in the labor market, especially among the junior level - ambitious young people who want to get a prestigious profession enroll en masse in specialized humanitarian universities, after which they successfully join the ranks of the unemployed. Soon, lawyers will become irrelevant in general – today. A similar fate awaits accountants - there are more than 1.1 million of them in the civil service alone, and they cost 1 trillion rubles. In this regard, replacing them with new document management programs. Already today they are the most popular among Moscow's unemployed.

In addition to these professions, scientists from Skolkovo identify logisticians, system administrators, credit managers, bank employees, set installers and other specialists whose work today requires, first of all, intellectual work.

"Scribblers" are under threat

Serious controversy, especially in the media, was caused by the fact that the specialties of journalist and reporter were added to the endangered professions. According to the compilers of the Atlas of Occupations, which has been actively discussed by the US Department of Labor since 2007, media employees should replace regular social networks. The fact is that today news is spread by ordinary users, and the previously working model, configured to hunt for sensations, will gradually become a thing of the past. And with it, the need for reporters and journalists who will report from the scene will disappear. In the future, in order not to end up “without a hole,” the “shark of the pen” must be a universal soldier of journalism - he must not only be able to write, but conduct radio broadcasts, be able to make original films, write good books, and create other media products - otherwise it will simply not be in demand.

A similar fate awaits proofreaders - as software and artificial intelligence develop, they will be replaced by text editors that will edit the text with high quality. It is worth paying special attention to commercial advertising writers – copywriters. Once in-demand specialists are increasingly complaining about the market being overcrowded with poorly educated, self-taught scribblers, as a result of which the quality of texts, and therefore fees, are falling. In Skolkovo, for example, they are sure that today it is easier to train secretaries in this craft than to keep an expensive specialist in writing articles on staff.

Among other “dying” professions are consultants - the development of the Internet makes it possible to abandon consultants on specific issues, replacing them with online assistants. The development of navigation systems will make it possible to do away with navigators, although now they are used exclusively in motor sports. New software will also replace testers, and web-based graphics technology will replace doubles and stuntmen in films. Museum staff will also be under threat - Skolkovo experts have classified exhibit curators, ticket takers, and tour guides as endangered professions. They, like representatives of many other blue-collar professions, will have to be replaced by robots. By the way, about working professions.

"Dying" blue-collar professions

Despite the fact that blue-collar professions are traditionally in demand on the labor market, 25 of them were included by Skolkovo scientists on the list of those that will disappear in the next 15 years. And if the watchman, elevator operator and postman do not raise any special questions, then there are positions that, it would seem, have never been threatened. For example, call center operators. Apparently, scientists predict the automation of the process of communication with clients, which will be performed by robotic chat bots. No less doubtful is the disappearance of seamstresses. Of course, today there are automated sewing workshops where machines do the work, but it is quite difficult to believe that people will completely abandon individual designer items.

On the contrary, what has long been dictated by practice is the abandonment of traffic police inspectors.

Yes, cameras programmed to catch violators often make many mistakes, but they do not take bribes or try to attribute a dubious traffic violation. And if they try, it is with good intentions, and not in order to receive a bribe! In addition to them, the Atlas of New Professions predicts “aging” for janitors, concrete mixer workers, foremen, dry cleaners and even machinists. There are also those professions where the use of robotics will protect people’s lives. For example, miners, drillers and miners will disappear, which, however, will not only save employers from hundreds of casualties in production, but will also reduce the cost of the mining process.

Among others are security guards, porters, trainers, waiters, parking attendants, couriers, cooks and representatives of other professions whose work, or at least part of it, can be automated by machines. Of course, there is no need to be afraid of this. Technology will not yet be able to fully replace humans. Flexibility of mind, creativity, ingenuity, originality of ideas, artistry and other human prerogatives will remain a priority for people in the labor market for the next 15-20 years - machines are still capable of performing only automatic functions, such as swinging a shovel or forging and stamping.

In the end, even if machines can replace creativity, the individual human touch will always remain valuable. A striking example of this is souvenirs made with human warmth or clothes with the inscription Hand made. There is no doubt that The more functions we transfer to machines, the more we will be able to value human labor, be it food production, determining a diagnosis, drawing up a statement of claim or writing an opinion article. Another question is that there is no need to expect mass demand for such services.