Types and types of management decisions. Management decisions Practical implementation of management decisions using an example
Management decisions in an organization: concept and essence
In the course of an organization's work, a number of problems always arise that need to be solved. Top management bodies participate in decision making.
Definition 1
Making a decision is not easy; it requires the head of the organization to have certain skills, experience and knowledge. It is believed that the decision-making process is one of the most responsible in the organization, since the efficiency of the enterprise depends on it.
Each person makes several decisions throughout the day, from where to drink coffee at lunch to which country to go on vacation. But there is a significant difference between ordinary decisions and managerial ones.
A manager, like any other person, makes many decisions a day, personal and work, and so work management decisions are responsibility, risk and work.
The quality of the decision made largely determines the course of the organization’s activities; correctly made decisions develop the enterprise; incorrectly made decisions slow down and worsen the work of the enterprise.
Stages of making a management decision
The management decision-making process includes several stages:
- goal definition;
- consideration of the problem;
- calculation and justification of a decision and analysis of possible consequences;
- exploring several options for solving the problem;
- choosing a suitable solution to the problem;
- making management decisions;
- announcement of the decision to the executors;
- control over the implementation of the decision.
Examples of management decisions
Example 1
The organization has experienced a negative downward trend in profits over the past three years. Analysts argue that this is due to the fact that the company's sales are declining, the product on the market is losing competitiveness, costs are rising and there is a need to fire some staff in order to reduce the company's costs.
In this situation:
- The purpose of decision making is to increase the profit of the enterprise.
- The problem is a negative downward trend in profit indicators over three years.
The justification for the analysts’ decision is that if some of the staff are fired, then profit will be restored due to the reduction in costs. The head of the company must also understand that if a product loses its competitiveness in the market, then in the future the profit from the sale of such a product will only fall, and it will be necessary to fire not only part of the staff, but possibly most of the staff, but the problem will not disappear.
Other options for solving the problem are to conduct marketing research on why the product is losing its competitive properties, why sales are falling, what is wrong with the product, what the consumer wants to see from the product. The answers to these questions will allow the manager to find the right path to solving the root of the problem, avoiding mass layoffs.
Making a decision - to allocate funds from the enterprise’s profit to conduct marketing research, not to fire staff, to look for the essence of the problem elsewhere, to reorient production to produce a product in demand on the market that can satisfy
1. Classification of management decisions
Describe the presented classifications of management decisions:
Based on the basis of acceptance: intuitive, based on judgment, rational;
According to the degree of impact on the object: operational, tactical and strategic;
By order of adoption: individual, collective and collegial;
According to the criterion of novelty: routine, selective, adaptive and innovative;
According to the degree of regulation: directive, guiding and recommending;
According to the style of decision-making - according to the ratio of efforts at the stage of developing alternatives and their selection: inert, cautious, balanced, risky, impulsive.
Present and characterize three more approaches to the classification of management decisions (10 classifications in total).
Give examples of each listed classification of management decisions.
The classification of management decisions according to the degree of impact on the object is presented in Fig. 1.1.
Rice. 1.1 - Classification of management decisions according to the basis for adoption
Intuitive solutionsis a choice made only on the basis of the feeling that it is right. In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. A manager who relies solely on intuition, from a statistical point of view, has little chance of making the right choice without any application of logic.
Example:
When making a purely intuitive decision, people base it on their own feeling that their choice is correct. There is a “sixth sense” here, a kind of insight, usually visited by representatives of the highest echelon of power. Middle managers rely more on computer information and assistance. Despite the fact that intuition becomes sharper along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes hostage to chance, and from a statistical point of view, his chances of making the right choice are not very high.
Decisions Based on Judgmentis a choice based on knowledge or accumulated experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations previously to predict the outcome of alternative choices in an existing situation. However, we note that a leader who is overly committed to judgment and accumulated experience may consciously and unconsciously avoid interaction with new technologies and developments, which leads to irrational decision making.
Example:
A decision to give the competent secretary the authority to respond to all routine correspondence without external oversight. The manager's decision on where to build a warehouse for finished products.
Rational decisionis a decision that is based on the basis of the analytical process, and is often independent of previous experience.
Stages of making a rational decision: diagnosis of the problem, formulation of restrictions and criteria for decision-making, identification of alternatives, analysis and evaluation of alternatives, final selection of an alternative, implementation of the solution, feedback, evaluation of results.
Example:
Choosing (purchasing) a car. Selecting a product market based on marketing research.
The classification of management decisions according to the degree of impact on the object is presented in Fig. 1.2.
Rice. 1.2 - Classification of management decisions according to the degree of impact on the object
Strategic management decisions- these are decisions that are made at the highest level of management for the long-term development of the organization. Such decisions are followed by the development of: a strategic plan, the production program of the organization. Strategic decisions involve fundamental changes in the organization: changing the directions of financial flows into product groups or target segments, transforming the structure, entering new regional markets, expanding or reducing activities, changing assortment policy. Strategic management decisions are made at the level of directors, vice-presidents of the company, deputy. directors, heads of production departments and workshops. In a small business, all responsibility for making strategic decisions is concentrated in the hands of the manager and his team.
Strategic are directive acts that direct, organize and motivate the collective actions of people to achieve strategic goals. Strategic planning includes:
developing policies in various areas that determine the life of the organization;
development of programs and projects, forecasting and determination of socio-economic development.
Strategic management decisions are designed to ensure that the organization fulfills its mission and, due to this, its survival in a highly competitive environment.
Example:
A car manufacturing plant is deciding whether to produce any spare parts for the cars itself or find a supplier from which to purchase them.
Operational management decisionsperform a corrective role directly in the course of the production activities of the enterprise, solving suddenly arising problems that cannot be delayed.
Operational management decisions are made daily based on the conditions of production activity, resource availability, market demand, prices, social demands, events in the political, economic, social, and environmental environment. Feature: operational decisions are sensitive to emerging unforeseen situations, and therefore they are called situational.
Subject of operational decisions: organizational measures, urgent orders, replenishment of emerging losses, damages, replenishment of missing material, labor, financial resources, adjustment of planned, program activities, obtaining current benefits.
Programmed decisions have the greatest weight in the totality of operational management decisions, since operational decisions are fleeting, urgent, and require the fastest possible execution and immediate response to the situation.
Example:
Repairing a broken machine in the workshop. Repairing a computer in the office. Software installation.
Tactical management decisions, as a rule, are focused on the short and medium term and problems of a production and technical nature.
Tactical management decisions are associated with medium-term problems, the development of a line of action for a relatively short period of time in accordance with the developing situation in production and markets. Tactical decisions are a way of concretizing a strategy, translating it into specific measures to be implemented during a certain planning, program period.
Orientation of tactical management decisions: as a rule, such decisions are aimed at achieving intermediate goals, solving problems that contribute to promotion and general goals.
Example:
Decisions of the company (manager) on the conditions under which the enterprise will agree on the supply of necessary equipment (software).
Operational and tactical decisions are related to the implementation of current goals and objectives. In terms of time, they are designed for a period not exceeding a month.
The classification of management decisions according to the order of adoption is presented in Fig. 1.3.
Rice. 1.3 - Classification of management decisions by order of adoption
Collegial decisionis a decision made by a group of managers and specialists.
As a rule, decisions are made by the head of the organization in agreement with leading top managers and specialists, collectively. This happens in most companies. The manager delegates parallel powers or uses the technique of mandatory approval, which is stated in administrative documents as “agreed”. With mandatory approvals, responsibility for making significant decisions partially rests with the managers who assume such authority. Parallel powers increase the responsibility and rights of managers, and the decision becomes collective. For example, many companies use concurrent authorities to control financial expenditures, and large purchases require two or three executive signatures.
Collective decisions are usually made at business meetings and during the work of commissions by leading managers and specialists. At such meetings there is already a known balance of power, which significantly influences the management result, the decision.
Example:
The manager has engaged an external law firm to provide advice on any legal issues.
Collective (democratic) decisions- these are decisions made by the majority of the organization’s employees, jointly by the work collective or by a small group. Unlike collegial ones, democratic decisions are a clear expression of the will of the majority of members of the work collective, small or large. Such decisions are made through secret voting, using expert assessment methods, for example, nominal group technique, Japanese ring techniques. The use of such methods is possible with a high level of staff motivation, the use of a democratic leadership style, and a developed and transparent corporate culture.
Collective decisions are also made when significant problems and issues that affect the entire staff are raised.
Example:
Election of a manager by competition, introduction of a new remuneration system, etc.
Individual management solutionsThese are decisions that are made by the manager alone. Small business organizations have a small number of management levels and a high risk of losing competitive status. Such an organization is led by an entrepreneur who bears full responsibility for its further functioning in unstable market conditions. An entrepreneur is afraid to delegate authority on financial and other significant issues to his subordinates and makes decisions alone. The positive aspect of an individual solution is its creative, extraordinary nature.
The disadvantages of individual decisions appear when they acquire an authoritarian character. The manager usurps power, individually manages resources, determines the organization's personnel policy and puts pressure on subordinates. Decisions made by the manager alone allow the organization to remain in the market for some time and be successful. However, in the future, the leadership style used by the leader hinders the development of the organization. A leader must be able to maneuver and be flexible, use the art of delegating decision-making powers to other people in the organization.
Example:
The manager decided to prepare presentation material for the meeting on his own, without resorting to the help or cooperation of employees.
The classification of management decisions according to the criterion of novelty is presented in Fig. 1.4.
Rice. 1.4 - Classification of management decisions according to the criterion of novelty
Routine solutionsare taken in accordance with the existing program, the manager must identify the situation and take responsibility for initiating certain actions. Difficulties can arise here if the manager is incompetent, misinterprets existing indications of a particular situation, acts illogically, or shows indecisiveness. A leader who correctly perceives the situation, draws the right conclusions, acts intelligently and controls the consequences, achieves what is expected of him. At this level, no creativity is required since all procedures are pre-prescribed.
Example:
Where to place the computer on the desktop.
At selective solutionsa certain amount of initiative and freedom of action is required, but within certain limits. Selective decisions imply that the manager evaluates the merits of a whole range of possible solutions and tries to choose those actions that best suit the given problem and are the most effective and economical.
Effectiveness depends on the manager's ability to select the course of action with the highest probability and whether it turns out to be acceptable, economical and effective.
Example:
Selection (rather than development of a new) system of motivation and incentives for personnel.
Adaptive solutionscause difficulties, since here the manager is looking for a new solution to a known problem, must be able to abandon the usual, but already outdated approach to the problem and develop a creative solution. The success of a leader depends on his personal initiative and ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown. Such solutions provide an answer that could have existed before, but in a different form. A manager is looking for a new solution to a known problem.
Example:
Innovative solutionsare the most complex, the manager needs to find ways to understand completely unexpected problems, and solving such problems requires new ideas and methods, the ability to think in new ways, the ability to creatively solve the problem by discussing and using the creative ideas of other specialists.
A manager must be able to understand completely unexpected problems, the solution of which requires the manager to develop thinking in relation to changing conditions. It is possible that solving today's complex problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology.
Development of a new (innovative) approach to organizing and conducting conference calls, for example, via IP telephony or Skype.
Classification of management decisions by content in Fig. 1.5.
Rice. 1.5 - Classification of management decisions by content
Solutions with quantitative characteristics, are accepted on the basis of mathematical and statistical methods. The assessment of quality and efficiency in this case is simplified, since the achieved level is compared with the planned one.
Example:
Reduction of finished product defects by 5%.
Solutions that are not quantitative, are subjective in nature, as they are determined by the personality of the subject receiving them. Assessing their quality is complex and quite controversial, since it is also subjective.
Example:
Carrying out the procedure for rotation (rearrangement) of personnel of the enterprise
The classification of management decisions by degree of regulation is presented in Fig. 1.6.
Rice. 1.6 - Classification of management decisions by degree of regulation
Policy decisionsmust be carried out and do not imply any initiative. They establish a clear relationship between certain parameters and specific solution options.
Example:
Making a decision on the introduction of information and communication technologies in the sphere of municipal government will be directive for those responsible for its implementation.
Orienting solutionsdetermine possible options for employee activities when certain conditions occur.
Example:
The decision will be a guide for archive workers, as it tells them that soon the work of many of them will not be in demand. At the same time, it provides for the training of specialists to work with the municipal information system.
Example:
The same decision for different categories of performers can be directive, guiding and recommending.
The classification of management decisions by decision-making style is presented in Fig. 1.7.
Rice. 1.7 - Classification of management decisions by decision-making style
The nature of the development and implementation of management decisions strongly depends on the personal characteristics of a person.
Balanced Solutionsaccepted by managers who are attentive and critical to their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.
Example:
Despite the complaints of some members of the team against their immediate supervisor, the director does not apply sanctions against him, since the complaints turned out to be rumors spread on purpose.
Impulsive decisionsare accepted by managers who easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are unable to properly test, clarify and evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; they are made “at once”, “in jerks”.
Example:
Dismissal of a manager against whom there are unverified complaints from his subordinates.
Inert solutions- the result of a careful search. In them, control and clarifying actions predominate over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions. They weakly motivate staff to implement them.
Example:
Conducting an internal audit
Risky decisionsare accepted without careful justification of actions by a leader who is confident in his abilities. Typically, such managers have good support in the form of constantly supporting superior managers or subordinates. They may not be afraid of any dangers.
Example:
Careful decisionsare characterized by the manager’s thorough assessment of all options, a hypercritical approach to business, and a large number of approvals. Such management decisions are effective in resolving problems relating to human life and their environment.
Example:
The decision to increase travel expenses for the company's lawyer after conducting all possible comprehensive analysis of his presence and absence at preliminary hearings on various lawsuits and the consequences of these trips.
The classification of management decisions according to the content of the management process is presented in Fig. 1.8.
Rice. 1.8 - Classification of management decisions according to the content of the management process
Economic solutionsassociated with the management system, necessary for increasing the economic efficiency of the organization’s activities, profitability, payback and liquidity of assets. How best to manage resources, make the enterprise profitable, increase profits - these and other questions will confront the manager making economic decisions.
Economic management decisions are manifested in the fact that the development and implementation of any management decision requires financial, material and other costs. Therefore, every management decision has a real cost.
The implementation of an effective management decision should bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision or a decision misunderstood by subordinates leads to losses and sometimes to the cessation of the company's activities.
Example:
If a manager decides to fire a negligent employee, the latter may suffer greatly, and if he does not fire or take other measures, the entire organization may suffer.
Social solutions- These are decisions that affect the organization's social structure, personnel, corporate culture, climate and shared values. Social decisions can be related to optimizing the work of personnel, improving the system of motivation and social support for employees, the image of the organization in society, and the implementation of the mission.
Example:
Increasing wages, introducing environmentally friendly equipment, improving sanitary conditions, strengthening safety requirements, resolving conflicts.
Organizational decisions- these are decisions related to management methods, ways to achieve goals. Such decisions are an integral part of the management process.
The essence is that company personnel are involved in this work. To work effectively, it is necessary to form an efficient team, develop instructions and regulations, vest workers with powers, rights, duties and responsibilities, establish a control system, allocate the necessary resources, including information, provide workers with the necessary equipment and technology, and constantly coordinate their work.
Example:
Organize workers to complete the task, redistribute functions and powers, and hold a general meeting.
Technical solutions- these are operational decisions that are necessary to ensure labor and production processes, supply the necessary resources, materials, and information.
Example:
Install software in a department, replace a broken machine, pay travel expenses, send an employee to an important production area.
The classification of management decisions according to the method of fixing the management process is presented in Fig. 1.9.
Rice. 1.9 - Classification of management decisions according to the method of fixing the management process
Management decisions can be expressed in in writingas administrative documents in the form of orders and instructions. Managers provide written decisions for legal review and subsequently for execution.
Example:
Order for hiring a new employee
In extreme circumstances, the oral form is used. The disadvantage of this method is that performers sometimes distort the content, and not always consciously, and interpret the decision in their own way.
Verbal management decisionsalso have legal force, and they can be appealed in court if there are at least two people who heard these decisions.
Oral management decisions occur during meetings, conferences and business conversations. Meetings and deliberations are collective events (public or involving a wide range of participants); conversations are mostly conducted individually or with a small number of people gathered.
Example:
Verbal order to establish a work schedule on a day off
Electronic solutionsinvolves recording decisions on electronic media. This method allows you to use all the capabilities of information and communication technologies. After the adoption of Federal Law No. 149-FZ of July 27, 2006 “On information, information technologies and information protection,” the electronic method of recording decisions became widespread.
Example:
Providing documentation for negotiations by a manager to a subordinate via email
In the practice of enterprises, from the standpoint of legal registration of management decisions, the most common are written management decisions.
The classification of management decisions by information processing method is presented in Fig. 1.10.
Rice. 1.9 - Classification of management decisions by information processing method
Algorithmic solutionsinvolve strict formalization of the implementation of procedures and operations based on rules, algorithms, formulas, and statistical data.
Example:
Calculation of the economic efficiency of new production should be carried out using developed algorithms.
But in management, not everything can be measured quantitatively. Something is assessed qualitatively. You can process and evaluate information based on intuition, generalizations, ideas, experience, and associations. Through conversation, discussion, and asking leading questions, you can obtain new information from a client or partner. Such solutions are called heuristic.
Example:
Receiving information from a partner about discounts received on office paper from the same office supply supplier.
2. Target and processor technologies
management business processor
Target technologies
Provide examples of the use of each of the target technologies both in business and in the field of educational and extracurricular activities at the university. Provide at least two examples for each area.
Processor technologies
Provide at least two examples of the use of each processor technology.
Target technologies
Target technologies are technologies based on the priority of goals over situations. Target technologies focus decisions on achieving a goal, rather than eliminating disturbing influences.
The classification of target technologies is presented in Fig. 2.1.
Regulatory technologyconsists of issuing tasks (goals, tasks) for execution, indicating the means and their possible limitations, recommended methods and the estimated time for their implementation. The technology provides for strict control of the process of approaching the target.
The professionalism of completing a task is determined by the qualifications of the manager who issued the task and the performer. This implies strict control over the positive dynamics of the task completion process.
Regulatory technology can lead to two main results:
achieving tangible positive results from the process of achieving the goal;
lack of significant positive results within an acceptable time (treading water).
Regulatory technology involves the development by the manager of the ultimate management goal and strategies with the possible limitation of various resources (material, human, financial, etc.). In this case, the goal will definitely be achieved, but within a time frame that is difficult to determine in advance. Achieving the goal is guaranteed only with strict internal or external control of the progress of the process of realizing the set goals.
the time for completing the goal or its component tasks should not be precisely specified (the process of achieving the goal itself is important);
there may be a significant and unpredictable limitation of resources (financial, technological, raw materials, etc.);
innovative and long-term nature of developments;
The estimated time to achieve the goal is over 1 year.
This technology is based on statistical methods, fuzzy set theory, and the theory of developing solutions under conditions of uncertainty. The authorship of the program and the results obtained belongs to the director and performer.
Example:
Writing a book. Preparation and writing of student work (thesis project, course work, etc.).
Drawing up a business plan.
Initiative-target technologyis based on issuing tasks without specifying the means and methods for their implementation and is designed for an initiative and professional performer.
Initiative-target technology involves the development by the manager only of the final goal of the task for an employee or department, as well as the deadline for completion, without indicating the mechanism for achieving it. In this case, the goal may not be achieved for some reason, it may be achieved within the stipulated time frame or earlier, or it may be achieved outside the established period.
Initiative-target technology gives great scope for initiative decisions of subordinates.
Basic conditions for using this technology:
the staff of the organization or its division is no more than 10 people;
the time required to complete the assignment should not exceed one month from the date of its issuance;
high professionalism of the staff or great confidence in them on the part of the manager;
production of new goods, services, information or knowledge;
the presence of stable informal relationships in the team.
The professionalism of the task is determined by the qualifications of the task performer, and the qualifications of the manager play a secondary role. Technology does not guarantee achievement of the goal.
Example:
In the process of completing the task assigned by the manager to the employee, the specialist quit, which resulted in a significant reduction in the necessary resources.
To reduce occupational diseases, the company's management decided to purchase technology that does not use asbestos as fillers for building blocks, while they decided to “freeze” the construction of a new technological building.
Software-targeted technologyused most often in organizations. It consists of issuing tasks (goals, tasks) for execution, indicating the means, methods and time of their implementation; there are instructions on external or internal control of intermediate states of this implementation.
The professionalism of completing a task is determined by the qualifications of the manager who issued the task, and the qualifications of the performer play a secondary role. Software-targeted technology usually guarantees the achievement of the goal.
The use of software-targeted technology can lead to three main results:
achieving the goal within a given time frame with acceptable deviations from the given intermediate values;
achieving the goal within a given time frame with significant deviations from the specified intermediate values;
consistent failure to achieve a goal within a given time frame.
This technology involves the development by the manager of management goals, means and methods for their implementation, as well as the timing and states of intermediate process values. If any given intermediate value is not achieved, then additional resources are allocated for its implementation; if the given intermediate value exceeds the planned one, then part of the resources is transferred to other needs and the goal will be achieved within the stipulated time frame.
Program-target technology is based on modern knowledge, economic and mathematical methods and information technologies.
Basic conditions for using this technology:
certainty and availability of management and production resources;
clearly expressed separation of management and production;
a large volume of standard procedures, situations and solutions.
Example:
When developing a political platform for a political organization in which its leader is the ideologist and conductor of a set of activities. In this case, the qualifications of the performer play a secondary role, and the professionalism of the task is determined by the qualifications of the manager who issued the task.
Development and implementation, for example, of the Federal Target Program “State Border of the Russian Federation”
Processor technologies
For successful implementation, each target technology for developing management decisions has its own set of processor technologies that represent the mechanism for implementing the target technologies.
The processors include six control technologies (see Fig. 2.2).
Rice. 2.1 - Classification of target technologies
Results-based management technologybased on the priority of final results over planning and forecasting. The main function performed by managers is coordination (adjustment) of actions and decisions depending on the results obtained.
This technology is well implemented for medium and small organizations or divisions in which:
the time between decision-making and the result of their implementation is minimal (hours, several days);
there are no insurmountable difficulties in quickly acquiring the required resources or returning unclaimed ones;
the professionalism of the head of the organization or the project manager is quite high;
The nature of production is predominantly mechanized.
The basis of this technology is a business plan and developments for making management decisions under conditions of possible uncertainties. It is known that the most necessary factors for developing an effective management decision are either unknown or precisely indeterminable.
This technology is the cheapest among other technologies, since it does not require the development of detailed plans and the calculation of funds for the implementation of solutions.
Example:
1. solving and writing independent work for the exam.
Planning a report on the annual sales volume of products (services).
Management technology based on needs and interestsis based on the priority of interpersonal relationships over other means and methods for forming interaction between employees participating in the implementation of the goal.
Interaction between a manager and a subordinate when implementing this technology can only occur if the impact affects the needs and interests of both the manager and the subordinate. All other options lead to resistance from the subordinate.
This technology is effectively implemented in large and medium-sized organizations in small regions (cities, towns, etc.), where the organization’s activities significantly affect the municipal infrastructure.
The number of personnel involved in this technology is not limited. The main function performed by managers is planning and organizing interaction between participants in the labor process; a positive result is guaranteed.
Example:
Creation of an enterprise in cities and towns with a developed textile industry, where one large organization gives life to a number of smaller service enterprises.
Opening of a new city library in a place where there is no public transport
Control technology through constant checks and instructionsis based on the priority of control and strict personnel management over other means and methods for forming interaction between employees participating in the implementation of the goal. Control and strict management are justified by the fact that in this case a person better realizes his needs for self-expression, self-display, stability and order.
This technology is effectively implemented in small organizations in which the authority and professionalism of the manager is beyond doubt, especially in new knowledge-intensive organizations, educational institutions or in enterprises where consultant-managers work on a contractual basis.
Example:
1. Conducting testing, certification, exams, testing the knowledge of students by the teacher.
Choreography for the play. In this case, the group leader (choreographer) is the authority who regulates and controls every movement of the dancer (actor).
Control technology in exceptional casesis based on the priority of the professionalism of performers or proven and well-executed production technology over other means and methods for the successful completion of assigned or selected tasks.
This technology is effectively implemented in small organizations that work either using strictly regulated technology or in organizations with a trust (functional) management structure.
In this structure, the manager exercises linear influence in all areas of the production process in administrative functions, and in economic, technological and other functions he provides the required assistance to subordinates and colleagues. The leader is in a situation: an equal among equals. The contractor can also transfer part of his work to a lower level and act in relation to him as a line manager and as an adviser.
Example:
1. The accountant fulfills the instructions of the chief accountant to prepare and submit reports to the director of the enterprise.
The teacher assigns the student to conduct an open lesson.
Control technology based on “artificial intelligence”is based on the priority of proven practice, statistics and modern economic and mathematical methods, implemented in the form of knowledge bases or databases using modern information computer technologies.
This technology is especially effective for any organizations with a large volume of standard complex procedures.
Example:
Filtering email using a computer. In this case, the most important letters are first submitted for consideration to the head of the enterprise.
Maintaining logs of student progress in universities.
Management technology based on the activation of personnel activitiesis based on the priority of incentives and rewards for the employee over other means and methods for the successful completion of assigned or selected tasks. It is effective in predominantly manual production, when labor productivity and quality of products are mainly determined by the mood, psychology and health of the worker, as well as the socio-psychological climate in the team. The number of employees is unlimited. Technology requires a system for monitoring the effect of incentives and rewards on the activities of each employee or team.
This technology influences the satisfaction of the needs and interests of employees not directly from the manager, as in management technology based on needs and interests, but through the decisions of the employee himself. Technology requires a high level of professional training of HR specialists.
Example:
Incentivizing an employee by giving him a responsible task or paying remuneration in cash and (or) commodity forms.
Writing essays, independent study of educational literature as a student’s motivation to receive automatic final grades for the semester (year).
List of used literature
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Introduction: ………………………………………………………....................3 Chapter 1 “Theoretical fundamentals of making management decisions "……..6
1.1. The process of making managerial decisions. Stages and
principles.
1.2. Regulatory support of the regulatory system
management decisions
Chapter 2 “Management decisions as the basis for sustainable
functioning and development »………………………………….16
2.1. Forms and types of management decisions
2.2. Practical use of adoption technology
management decision using the example of Akantit LLC
Chapter 3 “Analysis of management decisions in conditions of variability”…..24
3.1. Problems arising when adopting management
decisions in conditions of variability
3.2. The role of the manager in the process of making management decisions
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………33
List of sources………………………………………………………...36
Glossary………………………………………………………………………………...38
Appendix……………………………………………………………....39 - 47
Introduction
.The relevance of research:
The changes that have occurred in the Russian economy in recent years have revealed a number of controversial and topical problems of a theoretical and applied nature. They are important for the sustainable functioning and development of the economy. Priority problems include issues of theory, methodology and practice of making management decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Scientific development of the problem:
At different times, decision-making problems; developing ideas for an effective management decision-making process; The role of management decisions in the activities of an organization under conditions of risk and uncertainty has been the subject of fundamental research by domestic and foreign scientists: J. Keynes, V.P. Afanasyev, Y. Germeier, L.G. Evlanov, K. Marx, A.V. Nelson, L. Plunkett, D. Allen, J. Anderson, P. Barry, V.A. Voznesensky, etc.
Theoretical basis of the work:
The fundamental concept presented in the works of domestic and foreign scientists, program and forecast developments of leading scientists, government authorities, Decrees of the President and decrees of the government of the Russian Federation, legislative, directive and regulatory acts are used.
Practical significance of the work:
The point is that theoretical conclusions, proposed methods and practical recommendations can be used by business structures when making management decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty, regardless of the form of ownership, production direction and location.
Object of study:
Limited Liability Company "Acantit".
Subject of study:
Management decisions at an enterprise, methods and forms of their adoption under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Purpose of the study:
Disclosure of the essence of the form of management decision-making, the process and procedure for making them under conditions of risk and uncertainty, allowing to ensure the sustainable functioning of business structures.
Research objectives:
Reveal the essence, content and structure of management decision making;
Explore the specifics of the essence of risk and uncertainty;
Consider, using the example of Akantit LLC, the form and stages of decision-making.
The regulatory framework of the work consists of:
The Constitution of the Russian Federation, federal laws, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation, regulations of the State Tax Service of the Russian Federation.
The source base for the study is:
Basic educational literature, fundamental theoretical works, results of practical research by domestic and foreign authors, articles and reviews in specialized and periodicals.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the work is formed by:
Modern theories and concepts of personnel management by domestic and foreign authors; systematic approach to the concept of "management". In-depth study of issues of designing management decisions at all levels.
Empirical basis of the study:
Materials of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, Ministries of the Russian Federation, regional bodies and management institutes, operational data, documents.
Research method:
Analysis of textbooks and Internet sites.
Chapter 1 “Theoretical foundations for the adoption of management
decisions."
1.1.The process of making management decisions. Stages and principles.
World and domestic science in the 20th century. a new area of knowledge has been developed - decision-making theory. Having arisen in solving military-strategic problems, it has spread to the area of economic management. Today there is a scientific basis for making quality management decisions.
Considering organization to be a management tool, many management theory specialists, starting with M. Weber, directly link its activities primarily with the preparation and implementation of management decisions. Management efficiency is largely determined by the quality of such decisions.
Goals, interests, connections and norms are refracted through them. The full cycle of management activities is presented in the form of two management elements: preparation and implementation of management decisions. That is why decisions are a central element of management and organization; they are the result of the manager’s specific management activities.
The interest of sociologists in this problem is due to the fact that the decisions record the entire set of relationships that arise in the process of labor activity and organization management.
Development and decision making is a creative process in the activities of managers at any level, including:
Developing and setting goals
Studying the problem based on the information received
Selection and justification of efficiency criteria and possible consequences
Discussion with specialists of various options for solving the problem
Selection and formulation of the optimal solution
Decision-making
Concretization of the solution for its implementers.
“Compromise always costs more than any of the alternatives.” 1
The activity of any organization consists of two inseparable processes: management process And controlled process. 2 An integral part of these processes is management decision making.
Management process is to implement the functions of planning, organizing activities, motivation and control.
Managed process is considered as a set of interrelated operations aimed at achieving the goals of the organization.
In fact, these processes “coexist” in parallel and are inseparable from one another; it is logically convenient to separate them, since they are carried out by different people and pursue different goals.
Control actions- these are the actions of managers that are aimed at changing the controllable factors of the external and internal environment of the organization ( quality of resources, methods And conditions for using resources) in order to ensure maximum or required efficiency of the controlled process. (Application scheme 1)
Quality of resources (human, material, financial and information) - the most important characteristic of the internal environment of an organization. For an organization to be effective, its resources must be suitable to achieve the set goals, i.e. possess a certain set of internal useful properties. (Appendix diagram 2).
Ways to use resources. The widest range is formed by management decisions related to the choice ways to use resources organizations.
Conditions for using resources. They include uncontrollable factors of the external and internal environment. However, some of them may be in the “zone of power” of the manager, who has the opportunity to consciously influence the values of these factors, creating favorable conditions for achieving the organization’s goals. Example shown in the diagram. See Appendix (Diagram 1)
Principles. The decision-making process for managing a company is based on four basic principles, complete or partial disregard of which can lead to erroneous decisions and unsatisfactory results. Compliance with these principles makes it possible to make quality decisions at all levels of the organization.
First principle is the principle of organizational compliance. The form of organization must be adapted to the smooth implementation of communications, which facilitates decision-making and control.
Second principle- the policy, strategy and goals must be clearly formulated so that they allow general decisions to be made regarding new activities that go beyond today's needs.
Third principle - requires a sufficient amount of reliable data about the changing environment, which is necessary to maintain effective communications between top-level managers and lower levels of the functioning units of the organization. It is extremely important to select the available data in such a way that managers have at their disposal only those facts that they really need and are not overloaded with irrelevant factual material.
The fourth principle is provides flexibility, without which countless opportunities may remain unexploited. Under ideal conditions (exact criteria, clear goals and complete information), the need for decision-making managers would be small. A computer could answer any question. But we do not live in an ideal world, and there is a constant need for qualified managers who determine the optimal directions for the organization's actions.
By their nature, the listed principles are universal and must be adhered to in management and business activities.
We know the effects of many causes, but we do not know the causes of many effects. 3
The process of making management decisions is influenced by a large number of factors. (Appendix Diagram 3) For example: personal assessments of the leader, level of risk, time and changing environment, information and behavioral limitations, negative consequences and interdependence of decisions. Let's take a closer look personal assessments of the leader - contain a subjective ranking of importance, quality or benefit. In relation to decision making, appraisals act as a compass, pointing a person in the desired direction when faced with a choice between action alternatives.
It is important to emphasize that all management decisions are built on the foundation of someone’s value system.
In terms of social responsibility and ethics, below are examples of decisions made by leaders that reflect the values of these people regarding right and wrong and integrity.
For example, 4 You may think that withholding information that could help a colleague improve the project he is working on is wrong. Even despite the fact that this employee may be your main competitor on the path to promotion. The value you place on loyalty and openness makes you decide to pass on information to a colleague.
On the other hand, you may decide to fire an employee who consistently performs poorly. Although you place great importance on loyalty, your idea of equality dictates that you should fire a bad employee because he does not contribute as much to the organization as others. Research confirms that value orientations influence the way decisions are made. One of the first studies on the values of American managers showed that in their value system there is a clear bias towards economics, politics and science, as opposed to social, religious and aesthetic aspects. According to research by George England, a manager who prioritizes profit maximization is less likely to invest in renovating the cafeteria and workers' break rooms. A leader for whom the main thing is compassion for people would rather agree to a fair increase in wages than to cut it for the sake of release funds to finance research projects.
Cultural differences are important, although, as one might expect, there are similarities in the value orientations of managers from different countries.
For example: 5
Australian managers prefer a "soft" approach to management and pay significant attention to their subordinates;
South Koreans place more importance on power and do not perceive the problems of others well;
The Japanese show respect for their superiors and are highly devoted to the company.
Some organizations use formal declarations. The example described below is about the system of rewarded values of the Apple Computer company. Organizations that have promulgated value statements communicate the expectations of such values through various forms of education.
Example: Apple's value system 6
Empathy for consumers(to users). We offer superior quality products that meet real needs and provide lasting value... We are genuinely interested in solving consumer problems and do not compromise our ethics for profit.
Achieving goals (aggressiveness). We set aggressive goals and force ourselves to achieve them. We recognize that we live in unique times and see our products as tools to change how people work and live. This is an adventure and we are in it together.
Positive social contribution. As a corporate citizen, the firm strives to be an economic, intellectual and social asset in the communities in which we operate. But first of all, we hope to make this world a more comfortable place to live. We create products that empower people, free people from drudgery, and help them achieve more than they could do alone.
Individual achievements. We expect everyone to be passionate and achieve at a level higher than the industry as a whole. Only in this way will we generate the profits we need to achieve our other corporate goals.
The spirit of collectivism. Working in teams is essential to Apple's success because it is beyond the capabilities of any one individual. We are about corporate values so that the decisions made by managers and the actions of all employees of the organization reflect the common value system. We welcome the interaction of employees with managers at any level, the exchange of ideas and proposals for the sake of increasing the company’s efficiency and quality of life. We support each other and enjoy victories and rewards together.
Quality (perfection). We care about what we produce. We build quality, performance and value into Apple products at a level that earns us the respect and loyalty of our customers.
Rewards. We recognize the contribution of each person and high performance results. We also recognize that rewards must be both moral and monetary, and we strive to create an environment in which everyone can feel a sense of adventure and joy in working for Apple.
Good management. The attitude of managers towards their employees is of paramount importance. Workers must have reason to trust the motives and integrity of their bosses. Management is responsible for creating a productive environment in which Apple's values flourish.
When choosing a management solution, the following requirements are imposed:
Validity of the decision
Optimal choice
Legality of the decision
Brevity and clarity
Specificity in time
Targeting to performers
Efficiency of execution
1.2.Regulatory support systems for regulating management decisions.
Organizing the process of developing a management decision involves streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees, which is carried out through regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, and responsibilities.
An essential feature of management decisions is their legal formalization. A managerial decision, as an act of will, has meaning only when it is “objectified” in the form of a law, by-law or regulatory legal instrument. In this case, it takes on the appropriate form, acquires a certain legal force and can be communicated to the performers through pre-established channels of information dissemination. At the level of enterprises and associations, the number of documented decisions reaches an average of three hundred per year, at higher levels there are much more.
Decision rules, or standards, are usually developed and adopted by organizations themselves to facilitate coordination between various units. They are divided into: operational – are formed in the form of instructions; strategic– are developed at the highest level of management and have no time restrictions; organizational– establish the rights and responsibilities of the owners and personnel of the organization in accordance with current legislation.
Legal regulation of management decisions. A management decision must meet the requirements of efficiency, be timely, justified and realistically feasible.
Regulate- means to organize, influence the regulated object in order to introduce it into a certain framework and ensure its activity in a certain legal field.
In the process of applying the law when developing and making management decisions, a legal worker:
Disseminates legal provisions
Determines (changes, consolidates, adjusts, etc.) the content of rights and obligations, the measure of legal responsibility.
The application of legal norms is a common type of management activity and is interpreted as a set of elements of the subjective human psyche (mental experience of people).
The most important is legal regulation, in which the order and sequence of the management process itself is standardized and recorded in the relevant legal acts: charter, regulations, job descriptions, rules, etc. By establishing, through prohibitions, regulations and permissions, the boundaries of the will of officials applying the law. And what is most significant: in the process of law enforcement, the law influences the details of the very content of the management decision.
Regulatory literature:
1. Constitution of the Russian Federation. M.; 1993. 59 p.
2. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On the general principles of organizing local self-government in the Russian Federation.” Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 1995. No. 35. Art. 3506; 1996. No. 17. Art. 1917; 1996. No. 49. Art. 5500; 1997. No. 12. Art. 1378; 2000. No. 32. Art. 3330.
3. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On the fundamentals of municipal service in the Russian Federation.” Commentary on the Federal Law “On the Fundamentals of Municipal Service in the Russian Federation” / Director. Auto. Col., rep. ed. prof. V.I. Shkatulla. – M.: INFRA-M, 2001. – 463 p.
4. Law of the Russian Federation “On the procedure for the appointment and dismissal of heads of a regional, regional, autonomous region, autonomous district, federal city, district, city, district in a city, town, rural administration” dated 04/01/1993 No. 4733 – 1 (as amended on August 28, 1995).
5. European Charter of Local Self-Government. Local government in the Russian Federation.
Conclusion:
When making many management decisions, you may be faced with unpredictability, the probabilistic nature of the result, which is influenced by many different factors: both internal and external. In order to reduce the level of unpredictability of results, it is necessary to increase the level of professionalism of the manager. I define professionalism as having sufficient knowledge in the field of organizational management, personnel management, sufficient skills in using methods of socio-psychological influence, technology for developing and making management decisions.
Chapter 2 “Management decisions as the basis for sustainable operation and development”
2.1. Forms and types of management decisions.
A bad decision is one that cannot be changed. 7 .
There are historically established forms of decision-making that are characteristic of a particular organization. In accordance with the material studied, I presented these forms in the form of a diagram (Appendix Diagram 4) and a table (Appendix Table 1).
In situations where the cost of a mistake is too high and the risk concerns people’s lives, authoritarian forms have an advantage (army, factories of the military-industrial complex, surgical departments of clinics, etc.)
In organizational structures, an integral part of which is the creative process, a group form of decision-making is preferable (creative organizations, scientific laboratories, higher educational institutions).
In organizational structures related to financial, economic and social problems, traditions of consultative and group forms of decision-making have developed.
The stage of development at which the organization is located will also determine the form of decision-making. At the formation stage, group forms of decision-making usually take place; later they are replaced by consultative or even authoritarian ones.
Many managers may be concerned about their personal situation and will therefore take rational decisions that are consistent with their own goals in the organization, but are rejected at the initial selection stage solely on non-economic considerations due to personal bias or general firm policy.
The question of the optimality or rationality of the choice of management decision depends, to a decisive extent, on the hierarchy of power within the organization.
In a manager's career, the second level of the hierarchy is critical. At the lowest level, the main thing is to ensure that subordinates do their jobs. At higher levels there are other tasks.
Managers have to abandon rigid management styles (decisive and hierarchical) in favor of more democratic ones (flexible and comprehensive). This is a very dangerous period. Many talented leaders fail simply because, out of inertia, they adhere to previously effective tactics.
The following factors have led to a sharp increase in the importance of strategic management:
Transformation and increasing uncertainty of the economic environment;
The emergence of unexpected opportunities for entrepreneurship through advances in science and technology;
The emergence of new requests and changes in the purchasing power of consumers;
Increasing variability and uncertainty of the external environment;
Development of global and local computer networks, making possible the rapid dissemination and receipt of information;
Wide availability of modern technologies.
The decision of enterprise managers to enter new markets is one of the strategic decisions and has all the inherent features: it is aimed at long-term goals related to future opportunities; there are several alternative options for implementing this solution (work with intermediaries or independently, with which intermediaries); this solution has quite a high risk; success in its implementation will largely depend on the high-quality elaboration of all interrelated issues. At the same time, it is not possible to objectively assess the feasibility of this decision before its implementation.
Essential decision making is nothing more than CHOICE. Making a decision means choosing a specific course of action from a set of options. Let's look at examples: you need to make a decision - should you go to the theater tonight? Here we have two choices: 1) go, 2) don’t go. When choosing an apartment or a car, everything is clear by itself. Here, as in the theater example, select one is the best option.
The process of making management decisions is characterized by two “end-to-end” forms of managerial behavior.
The first one is "exclusionary" behavior(eliminative). Its essence lies in the desire of the leader exclude from their activities, situations of choice, to avoid the very need to make decisions. This behavior is quite typical of many managers who view decision making as an “undesirable means” of management associated with risk and responsibility. Specific types of “exclusionary” behavior are very diverse, but in general they can be divided into adequate and inadequate. TO adequate, for example, includes predicting possible choice situations and preparing for them in advance by collecting the necessary information. TO inadequate include unjustified delay in making a decision, passive expectation that the problem will “solve itself,” etc.
The specificity of “exclusionary” behavior is that, on the one hand, it is aimed at excluding decision-making situations, but, on the other hand, such behavior itself is the result of the leader’s choice. In other words, refusal to choose is understood as a kind of decision not to make any decision. And this is also a conscious choice associated with risk.
Acceptance of similar decisions about decisions,(“meta-decisions”) constitutes the main content of “exclusionary” behavior, which is characteristic of all types of professional activity.
In particular, the characteristics of such behavior are briefly expressed in the so-called Falkland's law: “When there is no need to make a decision, it is necessary not to make it.” 8 However, some managers go even further - they try to avoid making decisions or shift them to other people, even in cases where they are required to make a choice.
It is very important that organizational leaders are confident that they are using truly correct methods, which must not only be carefully substantiated, but also constantly developed. If outdated techniques are used to make decisions in changed conditions, this can lead to undesirable or even catastrophic consequences.
Therefore, management decision-making procedures must be continuously improved and updated, taking into account the emergence of new factors and covering new possible situations.
2.2. Practical use of management decision-making technology using the example of Akantit LLC.
Look inside: let neither your own quality nor value escape you in any matter. 9 .
Think everything through in advance. 10
I would like to consider the example of AKANTIT LLC. 11 It is engaged in several types of activities: installation, repair and maintenance of heating boilers, as well as equipment for the production of building materials; rental of premises. At this enterprise at one time there arose a need to increase operational efficiency. To increase the profit received by the enterprise, it is necessary to reduce the cost of production of the enterprise, i.e., introduce effective control over costs.
The first step is to create a system for obtaining prompt, accurate, reliable information about the activities of the enterprise - a management reporting system. Management reporting is a problem for almost all business managers due to the lack of an appropriate system for recording, processing and presenting data.
Some managers simply do not know what types of information they need to more effectively control the work of subordinates and more productive work of the enterprise.
Often decisions are made based on the tax reporting system. In many enterprises, there are two parallel accounting systems - accounting and practical, that is, those that serve to ensure the fulfillment of the daily work tasks of employees and managers of the enterprise.
The consequence of this approach to the formation of a reporting system is that, as a rule, a conflict arises between the information that management wants to receive and the data that performers can provide.
The reason for this conflict is obvious: different levels of the enterprise hierarchy require different information, and when building a bottom-up reporting system, the basic principle of building an information system is violated - focus on the first person. Performers either have the wrong types of data that management needs, or the data they need is not with the same degree of reliability.
In order for the management of an enterprise to receive the data it needs to make management decisions, it is necessary to build a reporting system “from top to bottom”, formulating the needs of the upper level of management and projecting them onto the lower levels of execution. Only this approach ensures receipt. Fixing at the lowest executive level such primary data that, in a generalized form, can provide the management of the enterprise with the information it needs.
The most important requirements for the management reporting system are timeliness, uniformity, accuracy and regularity of information received by the management of the enterprise.
These requirements can be most fully realized using an automated system. The use of electronic accounting system technology promised serious advantages in terms of the speed of obtaining and processing information and the speed of making management decisions. The decision to create a reporting system was entrusted to the automation department.
There is a problem of misunderstanding on the part of management and a complete lack of ready-made solutions.
The automation department completed the first stage of making a management decision: all information related to this problem was collected, namely, the products available on the specialized software market, their disadvantages and advantages were studied.
Several versions of our own automated reporting system were developed.
As a result, several projects landed on the manager’s desk. He did not make a single decision, but gathered all the specialists from the departments working on this problem.
At a joint meeting, a solution acceptable to all was developed - one of the projects was selected, and the automation department developed the necessary software.
In this example, all three stages of making a management decision are clearly visible: understanding the problem, leaving a solution plan (developing alternative solutions) and implementing the decision.
Next example:
There is a classic case of “brainstorming” in a sixty-story hotel in New York. 12
Guests began to leave the hotel. Entrepreneurs began to suffer losses. An analysis of the “flight” from the hotel showed that the main reason is the long wait for elevators on the floors (Americans do not like to waste time).
Specialist engineers proposed increasing the number of elevators and installing expensive electronic equipment. All of these proposals were associated with high costs.
Then the hotel management decided to organize a “brainstorming” and invited service personnel (maids, clerks, bellboys, etc.) to it. When discussing the issue, one young man, who had been working as a courier at the hotel for only two months, suggested installing mirrors on all sides on all floors.
The logic of the proposal was as follows. What does a woman do when she finds herself in front of a mirror? He takes out lipstick, an eyebrow pencil and begins to make a “maraffe”. If a man is nearby, he can use a system of mirrors to examine the woman from all sides, not point-blank. Thus, everything is on point and time passes unnoticed.
The proposal was accepted and implemented at minimal cost. The situation has stabilized.
Conclusion:
In my opinion, the problem of making and implementing decisions is fundamental to management. Over the past 20 years, the Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded twice for work on improving the generally accepted concept of decision making - in 1978. G. Simon for research into the decision-making process (the main idea is to find solutions in economic organizations that are acceptable to everyone), in 1986. J. Buchanan for the development of the fundamentals of the theory of economic and political decision-making (the main idea is decision-making based on the interests of the persons participating in this process).
All methods for finding ways to bridge the gap between theory and practice are focused on making expedient decisions, and we cannot apply in practice those methods that are not able to reflect the expedient motivation of the person making the decision.
Chapter 3 Analysis of management decisions in conditions of variability.
3.1. Decision making environment.
Management decisions are always associated with changes in the organization; they are usually initiated by an official or relevant body who bears full responsibility for the consequences of controlled or implemented decisions. The boundaries of competence within which he makes decisions are clearly defined in the requirements of the formal structure. However, the number of persons involved in preparing the decision is significantly greater than the number of persons in power.
A sample analysis shows that a quarter of all decisions (up to 25%) could not be made due to their impracticability. This happens for a variety of reasons: the absurdity of goals, the complexity of control, the “streamlinedness” of the measures taken, the lack of deadlines, and the assignment of responsibility to specific individuals.
Weak government support, increasing instability of business conditions, and specific features objectively require taking into account risk factors and uncertainty in business activity.
For Russia, a manager’s ability to work with the external environment, ensuring the company’s adaptation to rapidly changing national economic conditions, is perhaps the most important thing.
When making management decisions, it is always important to consider risk. The term “risk” is not used here in the sense of danger. Risk rather refers to the level of certainty with which an outcome can be predicted. Essentially, decisions are made in different circumstances with respect to risk. These circumstances are traditionally classified as conditions certainty, risk or uncertainty. 13
An example of a specific solution could be investing excess cash in 10% certificates of deposit. The manager knows that, barring the extremely unlikely occurrence of an emergency whereby the federal government cannot meet its obligations, the organization will receive exactly 10% on its investment. Likewise, a manager can, at least in the short term, determine exactly what the costs of producing a particular product will be because rent, materials, and labor costs are known or can be calculated with high accuracy.
Relatively few organizational and personal decisions are made under conditions of certainty. However, they do occur and often elements of larger decisions can be seen as certain. Authors and researchers of economic and mathematical methods call situations with certainty deterministic. 14
Risk. To decisions made under conditions risk, are those whose results are not certain, but the probability of each result is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event occurring and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. In conditions of certainty, there is only one alternative.
The most desirable way to determine probability is objectivity. Probability objective, when it can be determined by mathematical methods or by statistical analysis of accumulated experience.
An example of objective probability is that a coin lands heads up 50% of the time.
Another example is the forecasting of population mortality rates by life insurance companies. Because the entire population serves as the basis of the experiment, insurance actuaries can predict with high accuracy what percentage of people of a certain age will die this year, the next, and so on. years. From this data, they determine how many premiums they must receive in order to pay claims and still make a profit.
Management must consider the level of risk as the most important factor. The probability will be determined objectively if enough information is available to make the prediction statistically reliable. The probability is reliable only as an average value and in the long term. The coin can come up heads 10.20 or more times in a series. So, if an insurance company with policies for 50 thousand cars is able to predict losses from accidents with high accuracy, based on statistical averages, the manager will not be able to do this.
In many cases, the organization does not have sufficient information to objectively assess the probability, however, the experience of management suggests what is most likely to happen with high confidence. In such a situation, the manager can use judgment about the possibility of achieving alternatives with one or another subjective or estimated probability.
Uncertainty. Decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is impossible to estimate the likelihood of potential outcomes. This should be the case when the factors to be taken into account are so new and complex that it is not possible to obtain sufficient relevant information about them. As a result, the likelihood of a particular outcome cannot be predicted with sufficient confidence. Uncertainty is characteristic of some decisions that must be made in rapidly changing circumstances. The socio-cultural, political and knowledge-intensive environment has the highest potential for uncertainty. However, in practice, very few management decisions have to be made under conditions of complete uncertainty.
A leader, when faced with uncertainty, can use two main options:
First, try to obtain additional relevant information and re-analyze the problem, thereby reducing the novelty and complexity of the problem. Ultimately, he combines this additional information and analysis with accumulated experience, judgment, or intuition to give a range of results a subjective or perceived probability.
Second, act in strict accordance with past experience, judgment, or intuition and make assumptions about the likelihood of events. This is necessary when there is not enough time to collect additional information or the costs are too high. Time and information constraints are of utmost importance when making management decisions.
When choosing a solution under conditions of risk and uncertainty, it is recommended to use the Bayes-Laplace, Hodge-Lehman, Minimax, Gambler, Savage, Neutral Player and Hurwitz criteria.
Time and changing environment. The passage of time usually causes the situation to change. If they are significant, the situation may change so much that the criteria for making a decision become invalid. Therefore, decisions should be made and implemented while the information and assumptions on which the decisions are based remain relevant and accurate. This is often difficult because the time between making a decision and taking action is long. Likewise, the likelihood of a decision being ahead of its time should be taken into account.
Information Support. Information is data sifted for specific people, problems, goals and situations. Information is necessary for rational problem solving. However, the information needed to make a good decision is not available or is too expensive.
Behavioral restrictions. Many of the factors that impede interpersonal and intraorganizational communications influence decision making. For example, managers often have different perceptions of the existence and severity of a problem. They may also perceive constraints and alternatives differently. This leads to disagreement and conflict in the decision-making process.
Managers may become so overwhelmed with information and work at hand that they fail to perceive opportunities. According to one study, managers define the same problem differently depending on the departments they lead. A manager may feel that a superior will be annoyed if he is told of an actual or potential problem.
A new management paradigm began to emerge as a result of liberal economic reforms starting in 1985. 15 Its main provisions were:
Decentralization of the management system based on a combination of market and state regulation of socio-economic processes. The state regulates supply and demand at the macro level and does not interfere in economic activity
Transfer of state powers to the regions and to the municipal level, which simplifies the country’s economic management system and increases the efficiency of decisions made
A combination of market and state management methods in relation to state-owned enterprises
Providing economic freedom to business entities of all forms of ownership
Formation of market infrastructure.
In modern conditions, in order to be sustainably competitive, business structures must make strategic and tactical decisions taking into account the risky nature of production. Studying the essence and content of the category of “risk” allows us to define it as the uncertainty of consequences, the occurrence of which will affect the results of decisions made, which can lead to both losses and gains.
The problem of legal registration of management decisions includes six sets of organizational issues related to perception(a complex psychophysiological process of recognition, understanding and comprehension of reality):
1. Dividing the decision-making process into periods of analytical justification, evaluation of alternatives, and selection of the optimal option
2. Availability of subjects authorized to make management decisions (managers)
3. Involvement of professional representatives of legal work (lawyers) in the preparation of options for management decisions
Combining legal and organizational capabilities in creating an optimal regime for preparing, making and implementing management decisions
Compliance with requirements for management decisions
6. Establishment of a system for identifying deviations in the process of implementing decisions (control).
3.2. The role of the manager in the process of making management decisions.
Never make decisions yourself if you can force someone else to decide. 16
In the decision process, the following main functions of a manager can be distinguished:
The manager must manage the decision-making process
The manager puts forward a problem for solution, participates in its specification and selection of evaluation criteria.
He does the hard work of making the decision itself.
The manager organizes the implementation of the decision, leading the work at the stage of implementation of the decision.
Influence of national-historical factors.
National features of organization management are important for a manager for the following reasons:
Currently, many organizations actively interact with foreign firms and companies
The experience of foreign companies can be useful in other cultures
The manager can find work abroad.
The works of Berdyaev, Gumilyov, Klyuchevsky, and Chaadaev introduced a certain systematization into the study and description of Russian culture. 17
Klyuchevsky gives the following list of national character traits of the Russian person: prudence, resourcefulness in minor difficulties, habit of patient struggle with adversity and deprivation; looking back more than looking forward; more caution than forethought; short-term stress (emergency situation); a whim of one’s own courage (maybe).
Delegansky points to such social attitudes of the modern Russian archetype as the ability for patience, spirituality, the priority of the spiritual over the material, the breadth of Russian nature, the ability to absorb foreign cultural formations, a predisposition to social utopia and the expectation of a miraculous and sudden transformation of life. A cultured Russian person is characterized by: reverence for power, a desire to participate in management, but not to take responsibility.
Having analyzed the factors on which the success and failure of managers depend, we can say that as a person climbs the hierarchical ladder, his manner of making decisions consistently changes. To understand what qualities and behavioral attitudes help people make fast careers, information about 120,000 managers was studied. It was found that among the most talented, the decision-making style evolves in a completely predictable manner.
Involvement of managers in analytical research of problems is an important factor for success. The participation of the manager in the formation of criteria, definition and ranking of goals has a decisive impact on the implementation of results. In 80% of cases, developments carried out with the involvement of a manager find practical application. This is twice the value of the implementation rate of developments without their participation.
Conclusion:
Two main types of workers should be involved in the process of preparing and making decisions: managers and systems analysts.
The task of a leader is to be able to correctly define and set a task in an extremely complex and contradictory situation; possess a systematic approach to decision making and have a general understanding of the methods and means used. The role of systems analysts is full mastery of modern analysis methods; and assisting the manager in identifying the goals of his activities - what they are and what they should be. The development of a solution is carried out jointly by the manager and the system analyst.
In Russia there are 2 main problems: the problem of power (since a leader in a system without power is not a leader), the problem of attitude to work. Unlike the West, in Russia, work in a group is poorly structured, the responsibilities and functions of each employee are poorly defined.
Market orientation increasingly requires business managers to be able to see prospects and make effective strategic management decisions in the current risky business conditions.
Conclusion
Analyzing the development of management, it is easy to notice that its theory is evolving towards the development of modern decision-making technologies. Decisions determine such areas of management as management based on control over execution, management through extrapolation of the past into the future, management through anticipation of changes, management through flexible emergency solutions.
The development of effective solutions is a fundamental prerequisite for ensuring the competitiveness of products and the company in the market, implementing correct personnel policies and work, regulating socio-psychological relations in the enterprise, and creating a positive image.
The most important stage in management activity is making a management decision. A decision is an act of management bodies or a manager in which not only a goal is set, but also a number of tasks are formed, performers are provided, resources are allocated (labor, material, financial), and responsibility is assigned.
A management decision is made when, for some reason, a problematic situation arises. This situation is being comprehensively studied: the causes of its occurrence, probable consequences, possible problems in its elimination.
The effectiveness of management depends on the integrated application of many factors, and not least on the procedure for making decisions and their practical implementation. But in order for a management decision to be effective and efficient, certain methodological principles must be observed.
Decision making is inherent in any type of activity, and the performance of one person, a group of people or the entire people of a certain state may depend on it. From an economic and managerial point of view, decision making should be considered as a factor in increasing production efficiency. Production efficiency, naturally, in each specific case depends on the quality of the decision made by the manager.
In order to make a management decision, each manager must have a good understanding not only of the conceptual apparatus, but also be sufficiently skilled in applying it in practice.
A good decision imposes a large social burden on the manager and depends on the manager’s psychological preparedness, his experience, and personal qualities.
To find the right ways to solve a problem, a manager should not strive to immediately resolve it, and this is practically impossible, but must take appropriate measures to study the causes of the problem based on available internal and external information.
The importance of the legal factor in constructing management decisions also cannot be considered statically, in any one dimension. When managers and lawyers combine their efforts, most often there is a liberation of consciousness from established attitudes and stereotypes, which allows us to see options for eliminating the problem from a new perspective. This is a rather complex process of thinking about new ways and means of correcting the situation with a tendency towards a better solution. With the help of legal tools, it is possible to:
To differentiate and distribute the collection, processing and direction of the results of information analysis at different levels of preparation of materials for management decisions;
It is rational to construct a decision-making system and accurately correlate it with the responsibility system;
It is most appropriate to distribute in the decision-making system the relationship between expert assessment and the actions of officials responsible for the adoption and implementation of the management program adopted for execution;
Determine the formal (normative) boundaries of freedom in the process of an official making a management decision in order to prevent arbitrariness, on the one hand, and restrictions on initiative, on the other;
Ensure an accurate distribution of functional roles of management personnel, their rights and responsibilities, and create a system of interconnections of management relations.
List of used literature:
Educational literature and magazines
1. Pilyaeva V.V. Economic and legal categories of thinking. M., 2002. P. 22.
2. Sorokotyagin I.N. Psychology of jurisprudence. SPb., 2006. 449С
3. Barikhin A.B. Large legal encyclopedic dictionary. M.: Knizhny mir, 2004. P. 792.
4. Azoev G.L. Competition: analysis, strategy and practice. - M.: Center for Economics and Marketing, 2002. 292С
5. Vikhansky O. S. et al. Management: Person, strategy, organization, process: Textbook. - M.: Gardarika, 2004. 288 p.
6. Management in Russia and abroad No. 1 / 2003. 35С
7. Meskon M.H., Albert M., Khedouri F. . Fundamentals of management. - M.: Delo, 2002. 665С
8. S.E. Pivovarova, D.I. Barkana, L.S. Tarasevich, A.I. Maizel. Comparative management. St. Petersburg: Peter Publishing House, 2000. - 368 pp., ill.
9. Development of management decisions
Moscow Business School Leadership Energy. Solovyov Sergey Alexandrovich
10. G.A.Simon. Decision theory in economics and behavioral science. American Economic Review. (December 2002) 260С
11. T.V. Kornilova. Psychology of risk and decision making. Textbook for universities. Moscow: Aspect-Press, 2003. 286С
12. Kinarskaya S.V. Motivational conditions for the successful implementation of management decisions. Author's abstract. dissertation of candidate of psychological sciences. 73C
13. S. Chaudhuri, U. Dayal, V. Ganti. Database technology in decision support systems. Open systems. N 1. (January 2002)
14. Abchuk V. A. Management; UNION; St. Petersburg - 2002. 448С
15. Goncharov V.I. Management: textbook; Misanta; Mn. - 2003. 480С.
16. Karmin A. S., Culturology, St. Petersburg, “Lan”, 2006, p. 639.
17. Development of management decisions. R.F. Fatkhutdinov. M.; JSC "Intel-Sintez Business School" 1998. 271 p.
18. Fundamentals of management. A.K. Semenov, V.I. Nabokov. 5th ed., revised. And additional – M.; Publishing and trading corporation "Dashkov and co", 2008. - 556 p.
Web site:
19. Website of the Information and Analytical Bulletin of the Ural Academy ( http://chinovnik.uapa.ru/modern/article.php?id=676)
20.Community managers « HBR Russia".
http://www.executive.ru/partners/conferences/
21. Bank of pedagogical information. O.A. Kulagin. Decision making in an organization.
Regulatory literature:
21. Constitution of the Russian Federation. M.; 1993. 59p.
20. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On the general principles of organizing local self-government in the Russian Federation.” Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation. 1995. No. 35. Art. 3506; 1996. No. 17. Art. 1917; 1996. No. 49. St.5500; 1997. No. 12. Art. 1378; 2000. No. 32. Art. 3330.
22. Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On the fundamentals of municipal service in the Russian Federation.” Commentary on the Federal Law “On the Fundamentals of Municipal Service in the Russian Federation” / Director. Auto. Col., rep. Ed. prof. IN AND. Scatulla. – M.: INFRA-M, 2001. – 463 p.
23. Law of the Russian Federation “On the procedure for the appointment and dismissal of heads of a regional, regional, autonomous region, autonomous district, federal city, district, city, district in a city, town, rural administration” dated 04/01/1993. No. 4733 – 1 (as amended on August 28, 1995).
Glossary
Adhocratic organization received this name for its applicability to non-standard and rapidly changing structures, to power based on knowledge and competence, and not on position in the hierarchy.
Affect of inadequacy manifests itself in the fact that a person is in a stable and negative in nature emotional state, which arises in him in connection with failure in activity.
Utility maximization concept requires exploring the entire set of alternatives, evaluating them and selecting the best one, even if a satisfactory solution has already been found.
Randomization– artificial introduction of randomness into a situation where it is absent.
A synergistic alternative is a combination of ideas whose combined effect exceeds the simple sum of the effects of these ideas taken individually.
Transactionist This is an employee necessary only for the preparation of contracts, simple revision of prepared documents, and a legal consultant.
Application
Table 1 Types of management decisions.
|
Solution type |
Characteristic |
|
When the cost of a mistake is too high and the risk concerns people's lives |
|
|
Group solutions |
In organizational structures, an integral part of which is the creative process. |
|
Advisory and group solution |
In organizational structures related to financial, economic and social problems |
|
Customized solution |
can be taken intuitively, based on advice, as a result of experiment. |
|
Programmed Solutions |
Accepted using standard procedures and rules |
|
Non-programmed solutions |
Requires the development of new procedures and decision rules |
|
Intuitive solutions |
Based on the person’s feelings and perception that these decisions are correct |
|
Logical solutions |
Accepted on the basis of knowledge, experience of logical judgments |
|
Rational solutions |
Adopted on the basis of an objective analysis of problem situations using scientific methods and computer technologies |
|
Valid solutions |
Satisfy all objective constraints and can be implemented in practice |
|
Invalid solutions |
Unrealistic solutions that do not satisfy one or more constraints |
|
Unwise decisions |
Decisions that do not lead to achieving the management goal |
|
Satisfactory solutions |
Decisions leading to achieving the management goal |
|
Optimal solutions |
Solutions that ensure the maximum degree of achievement of the organization’s management goals |
|
Routine solutions |
Well-known methods of action to resolve the problem |
|
Selective solutions |
They assume the choice of one alternative (from a set of given ones) from a certain set of courses of action |
|
Adaptive solutions |
They are accepted in conditions when the situation changes and therefore some modification of the known options is required, taking into account the characteristics of the new situation. |
|
Innovative solutions |
Accepted in conditions where the problem cannot be solved using known methods of action or their modifications and requires the development of fundamentally new solutions that have not been used before. |
|
Situational solutions |
Associated with solving current problems of the organization and do not involve global changes |
|
Reorganization decisions |
Imply significant changes. For example, restructuring the organizational structure or choosing a new organizational strategy. |
|
Rutinized solutions |
Accepted in standard, repeating situations, practically independent of the personality of the manager |
|
Initiative solutions |
The influence of the manager’s personality on the content of the decision is obvious |
|
Strategic decisions |
Aimed at achieving long-term organizational action |
|
Tactical decisions |
Ensure the implementation of strategic and pursue the achievement of medium-term goals of the organization |
|
Operational solutions |
Accepted by managers on a daily basis to achieve short-term goals and perform current work in the organization |
|
Permissive solutions |
“Yes” management decisions that simply give the go-ahead to proposals to solve a problem. |
|
Prohibiting decisions |
“No” type management decisions that prohibit proposals to solve the problem. |
|
Constructive decisions |
Proposed by the manager independently and reflect his active position in relation to the problem being solved |
|
Participative solutions |
All members of the organization or group participate in the preparation of decisions |
|
Manufacturing Solutions |
Decisions related to the choice of production technology |
|
Marketing Solutions |
Market Segment Decisions |
|
Financial solutions |
Decisions related to the selection of the optimal securities portfolio |
|
HR solutions |
Decisions related to selection and placement of personnel |
|
Combined solutions |
All decisions made in organizations |
|
Marginal solutions |
When making a decision, the manager is forced to focus on the interests of two groups that are significant to him. These interests do not coincide and are strictly opposite |
|
Dictatorial decisions |
The leader's actions can be deliberately directed against the interests of the group |
|
Autonomous solutions |
Decisions are made by the leader autonomously, without the direct participation of subordinates, but under the influence of the interests of the group and factors of joint activity |
|
Joint Operational Solutions |
Decisions occupy a “middle position”; they are relatively important and reversible in their consequences. For example: business meetings, “operatives”, “flight meetings” |
|
Above-normative decisions |
Characterize an innovative style and creative approach to managing an organization |
|
Balanced Solutions |
Leaders who are critical of their actions accept hypotheses, subjecting them to careful testing. |
|
Impulsive decisions |
People who know how to perceive and generate new ideas, but do not have the technology to analyze them and construct predictive consequences, are prone to such decisions. |
|
Inert solutions |
The result of a careful search, in which control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, it is almost impossible to detect originality in such solutions |
|
Risky decisions |
Associated with the emergence of various types of threats, managers often ignore legal expertise, and in the decision-making process there is no justification for possible alternatives |
|
Deterministic solutions |
Accepted under conditions of certainty, in the presence of complete information |
|
Probabilistic solutions |
Accepted under conditions of probabilistic certainty (risk) |
|
Uncertain decisions |
Decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, in the absence of necessary information on the problem |
|
Single-purpose and multi-purpose solutions |
Classified based on the number of targets being considered |
|
Regulatory decisions |
Direct the activities of subordinates, excluding their independence. Only unconditional diligence is required from subordinates |
|
Orienting solutions |
The main points of activity are clearly determined; in resolving secondary issues, subordinates are allowed to exercise independence |
|
They outline the possibilities of activity of subordinates, providing a wide choice of specific paths and manifestations of initiative. |
|
|
Economic solutions |
Associated with increasing production efficiency, improving the activities of the enterprise |
|
Social solutions |
Aimed at improving working and rest conditions for members of the enterprise team. Diagram 1 The essence of management decisions Examples Decisions on hiring and firing employees, improving their qualifications, purchasing raw materials and supplies, purchasing new equipment, performing repair work, conducting marketing research to obtain reliable information about the market situation, etc. Decisions of managers about target market segments, sales channels and distribution of products, advertising campaigns (in order to influence consumer behavior), division of “spheres of influence” between competitors, choice of partners and suppliers, organizational culture and structure of the company, and others. Depending on the method of using resources: Decisions about the company's business plans, the appointment of employees to certain positions, the distribution of tasks and powers, the organization of interaction between departments, methods of motivating personnel, the distribution of material and financial resources, the use of information received, and others. Compromise– between the quality of the decision and the cost of resources for its adoption. Hema 4 Form of management decision making By degree of goal achievement: Unreasonable Satisfactory Optimal Based on innovativeness: Routine Selective Adaptive Innovative By the number of persons involved in decision making Individual (or administrative) Collective: Depending on the field of activity: Production Marketing Financial By personnel By degree of justification: Intuitive brain teaser Rational If possible: Acceptable Invalid By scale of changes: Situational 1 Quote.Murphy's Law. O.A. Kulagin. Decision making in organizations. Chapter 1 “The essence of management decisions.” Bank of pedagogical information. 2 Kinarskaya S.V. Motivational conditions for the successful implementation of management decisions. Abstract of the dissertation of a candidate of psychological sciences. 3 Quote by Ch. Colton. O.A. Kulagin. Decision making in organizations. Chapter 3 “Levels of organization of management decisions.” Bank of pedagogical information. 4 Semenov A.K., Nabokov V.I. Fundamentals of Management: Textbook. – 5th ed., revised. and additional - M.; Publishing and trading corporation "Dashkov and co", 2008. Chapter 1 5 Fundamentals of management Meskon M.H., Albert M., Khedouri F., M.: Delo 2002. chapter 1 6 Kulagin O.A. Decision making in organizations. Paragraph 3 “General characteristics of the decision-making process.” Bank of pedagogical information. 7 Vikhansky O. S. et al. Management: Person, strategy, organization, process: Textbook. - M.: Gardarika, 2004. Quote from Publications Sir solutions Management technology has the following mechanism: 1. General management acceptance solutions.2. Rules acceptance solutions.3. Plans in acceptance solutions.4. Adoption bilateral solutions ...Managerial accounting and its role in acceptance managerial solutionsCoursework >> Accounting and AuditingIN managerial and business activities. Self solution can take a number forms and represent: standard solution, at acceptance whom... Adoption managerial solutions processes and mechanismsAbstract >> ManagementRecognition of such values, through various forms learning, In addition to differences in personal assessments... is the environment in which solutions. Wednesday acceptance solutions. At acceptance managerial solutions It's always important to consider the risk... Managerial solutions and their characteristics. Wednesday acceptance managerial solutionsAbstract >> Management... Managerial solutions and their characteristics. Wednesday acceptance managerial solutions Contents Introduction 3 1.Characteristics managerial solutions 5 1.1. Essence, functions and environment acceptance 5 managerial solutions 5 1.2.Classification managerial solutions ... |
Introduction
The relevance of the topic is determined by the fact that the life process of each organization is associated with a process of continuous change and development. An organization can realize its goals only if its changes are adequate to the changes and requirements of the existing economic environment of market relations.
The current state of science is characterized by a transition to a global consideration of the degree of development of the problem of “Management decision-making technologies”; many works are devoted to research issues. Basically, the material presented in the educational literature is of a general nature, and numerous monographs on this topic examine narrower issues of the problem of “Management decision-making technology”. However, it is necessary to take into account modern conditions when studying the problems of the designated topic.
The high significance and insufficient practical development of the problem “Technology for adopting SD using the example of a trading enterprise” determine the undoubted novelty of this research. Further attention to the issue of “Technology for making sustainable development” is necessary in order to use modern technologies for making management decisions, which is important for a manager, one of whose main professional skills is the ability to make effective management decisions. And in intense competition, all other things being equal, those organizations that have taken advantage of the additional opportunities provided by management decision-making technologies achieve success, develop sustainably and survive.
The topic of this work is the technology of making management decisions using the example of the trading enterprise CJSC “Vneshtorgsib - M”
The object of the study is the activities of the wholesale and retail enterprise CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M.
The subject of the research is the development of management decisions at the enterprise.
The purpose of the thesis is to study and evaluate experience, develop effective technologies in the process of preparing, making and implementing management decisions, as well as developing recommendations for their improvement.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
1. Reveal the theoretical foundations for the development of management decisions.
2. Identify problems in developing management decisions.
3. Investigate the development of management decisions at ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M.
4. Suggest ways to improve the development of management decisions at ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M.
The thesis uses the following research methods: theoretical analysis of documentary and literary sources, document analysis, interview. The method of participant observation significantly supplemented the obtained research material.
Knowledge. Economists and practitioners I. Ansoff, H. Vissema, P. Drucker, M. Porter, G. Simon, A. Strickland, S. Fisher and others made a significant contribution to the study of problems of management effectiveness and organizational behavior in solving set goals. V.V. devoted his works to the study of the essence and content of management decisions. Glushchenko, A.G. Ivasenko, I.D. Ladanov, A.E. Saak, L.E. Sokolova and others. E.I. paid attention to the consideration of problems associated with making management decisions. Brazhko, E.P. Golubkov, O.S. Vikhansky, I.L. Kardanskaya, L.I. Lukicheva, R.A. Fatkhudinov, E.Yu. Khrustalev, L.P. Yanovsky et al.
Among the foreign authors who worked on the problem under study: T. Boydell, N. Winner, F. Kotler, R.D. Lewis, M.H. Meskon, M. Albert, F. Khedouri, F. Harrison and others. Practical significance. The methodology and results of the study can be useful for organizing types of service industries. The developed recommendations make it possible to improve and improve the management decision-making system at the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M.
The sources of information for writing the work on the topic “Technology for making managerial decisions” were basic accounting and reporting information for the enterprise CJSC “Vneshtorgsib - M” for 2004 – 2007.
The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that the developed recommendations make it possible to improve and improve the management decision-making system at the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M.
Work structure. The study consists of an introduction, three chapters and a conclusion and a bibliography. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the choice of topic, sets the goal and objectives of the research, characterizes research methods and sources of information.
Chapter one reveals general issues, reveals the historical aspects of the problem “Technology for making managerial decisions”. The basic concepts are defined and the relevance of the questions “Technology for making management decisions” is determined.
Chapter two examines in more detail the content and modern problems of “Technology for making managerial decisions.”
Chapter three is of a practical nature and, on the basis of individual data, an analysis of the current state is made, as well as an analysis of the prospects and development trends of “Management decision-making technology”.
Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for the development of management decisions
1.1 Essence and characteristic features of management decisions
There are many definitions and interpretations of the concept of “management decision”. Here are some of them:
1. A management decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of an alternative from a variety of options for achieving a specific goal of the management system.
2.Management decisions are, first of all, the creative and volitional influence of the subject of management, based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the managed system and analysis of management information about its condition, aimed at achieving the set goal.
3. A managerial decision is a choice that a manager must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities of his position. The global goal of developing and making any management decision is to provide a feasible and most effective option for moving towards the goals set for the organization.
4. A management decision is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating problems that have arisen in the object of management.
5. A management decision is a creative, mental act of a management subject, which, based on requirements, goals and emerging tasks and using data analysis and information about the object, determines the program for the subsequent activities of the team and individual employees.
6. A management decision is one of the necessary moments of volitional action, consisting in choosing the goal of an action and how to implement it.
7. A management decision is the result of a manager’s specific management activities. Decision making is the basis of management. Each management function is associated with several general, vital decisions that require implementation.
8. A management decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal of the management system.
9. A managerial decision is a deliberate conclusion to carry out some actions or, conversely, to refrain from them.
One of the main concepts and components of the actions of entrepreneurship and management is the concept of “decision”.
A decision is the choice of an alternative to a certain course of action to achieve a goal.
An alternative is one option for achieving a goal that excludes another option.
Management decision is the basis of the management process. To manage means to decide. The term “managerial decision” is used in two main meanings – as a process and as a phenomenon:
· management decision as a process is the search, grouping and analysis of the required information; development, approval and implementation of management decisions;
· a management decision as a phenomenon is an action plan, resolution, oral or written order, etc.
The essence of management decisions is related to the social, economic, organizational, legal and technological interests of the organization (Figure 1.1).
Rice. 1.1 The essence of management decisions
The economic essence of management decisions is manifested in the fact that the development and implementation of any decision requires financial, material and other resources. Therefore, every management decision has its own cost. The implementation of an effective management decision should bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision leads to losses and sometimes to the cessation of the company's activities.
The organizational essence of a management decision is that in order to develop and implement SD, the company must have the following capabilities, including:
Form an efficient team;
Develop instructions and regulations regulating the powers, rights, duties and responsibilities of employees;
Allocate the necessary resources, including financial and information;
Provide workers with the necessary equipment;
Establish a control system;
Constantly coordinate the process of development and implementation of SD.
The social essence of a management decision is embedded in the personnel management mechanism, which includes levers of influence on the employee in order to encourage him to be active in the team. These levers include:
Needs; - interests;
Motives of behavior; - installations;
Human values.
The legal essence of a management decision consists in strict compliance with regulatory legal acts, as well as the charter and other documents of the company itself. Violation of the law during the development of SD can lead to the cancellation of the decision and legal liability for its implementation.
The technological essence of a management decision is manifested in the ability to provide personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the development and implementation of SD. When planning the development and implementation of SD, the manager must simultaneously form a technological basis for it.
Through the decision, the purpose, types, scope of activity, rights and responsibilities are established, the actual state of phenomena, objects at a given point in time, etc. is recorded.
Accordingly, a management decision is reflected in the form of various types of documents; for each form of development of a management decision, its own set of implementation forms is used (Figure 1.2).
Rice. 1.2 Sharing forms of development and implementation of management decisions
Characterizing the reasons for the need to make decisions, it seems possible to highlight the following solutions:
1. logically determined by the process technology;
2. random, the need for which arises if the problem is generated by factors that may or may not appear when achieving goals.
It is customary to classify management decisions on the following grounds (Figure 1.3, 1.4).
1. Depending on the degree, management decisions that determine the need for development and adoption are divided into programmed and unprogrammed.
Highly structured, i.e. resulting from the implementation of a certain sequence of actions and steps;
Weakly structured (unprogrammed), required in situations that are to some extent new, internally unstructured or associated with unknown factors.
2. Based on the basis (nature of acceptance):
Intuitive decisions are choices made solely on the basis of a feeling that they are correct;
Based on judgment, adopted on the basis of knowledge and accumulated experience. They are based on a forecast of future results. The method guarantees the avoidance of gross errors.
The rational way of solving problems is called the best way. It involves formulating all possible alternatives and developing a system of the preferred option.
3. According to the degree of novelty:
Traditional decisions make up about 90% of decisions made in recurring situations. Mainly used at middle and lower management levels.
Decisions made in new situations to solve new problems are called original. They require the collection and analysis of additional information and the manifestation of innovative abilities of the manager.
4. By degree of certainty:
5. By character:
Strategic decisions are decisions regarding a set of actions aimed at achieving the goals of the organization through its adjustment (adaptation) to changes in the external environment.
Current decisions are decisions that develop and clarify promising solutions and are made within the framework of a subsystem or stage of one of its cycles, for example the development cycle.
Operational decisions - decisions covering production processes for the manufacture and supply of lower-level elements, bringing the planned task to specific performers in each department.
6. By functional focus:
Planning – based on a special study to form a conclusion about the possible development and results of any management process;
Organizational - provide for the formation of a new or improvement of the existing company management structure, as well as a set of administrative measures to organize the execution of the task;
Activating - to increase the efficiency of task completion, they form decisions to activate the activities of company employees through stimulation and mobilization;
Coordinating - in the event of unforeseen interfering influences, they are necessary to harmonize the company’s activities;
Controlling decisions are aimed at ensuring timely implementation of plans and planned development milestones;
Informing decisions are aimed at familiarizing the initiators and executors of the decision with the information they need, as well as with the intermediate and final results of the task.
7. For reasons:
Situational management decisions are caused by events that disrupt the planned course of events. Usually these are current, day-to-day decisions of the manager. A large number of them indicates an ineffective management process and the possibility of a crisis.
Management decisions by prescription are determined by the relevant regulations.
Program management decisions are long-term and universal in nature, determine the main directions of development, and are the basis for more detailed decisions designed to ensure the achievement of program objectives at each stage of its implementation within a certain time frame.
Initiative decisions are made by managers occupying a fairly high, dominant position.
8. According to the degree of regulation:
Regulatory decisions must be implemented and do not imply any initiative.
Guiding decisions determine possible options for employee activities when certain conditions occur.
9. By the number of criteria:
Single-criteria decisions allow you to evaluate alternatives based on one criterion (indicator), the degree of importance of which may depend on objective conditions or be determined subjectively by the decision-maker.
When assessing multicriteria solutions, a system of indicators is used. This creates the necessary difficulties, since it is necessary to select and evaluate their impact on the final result.
10. By organization:
The individual form of organization of management decision-making is characterized by the fact that the manager alone (individually) makes a decision and bears personal responsibility for it.
In the collective form, all team members participate in the decision-making process (based on voting or consensus).
The collegial form of decision-making means that the work of preparing and making a decision is carried out by a group of specialists authorized for this by a group of employees.
Decisions that have quantitative characteristics (budget approval, attracting investments, setting tariffs for land rental services).
Decisions that do not have quantitative characteristics (forming a corporate culture, resolving personnel issues, managing public relations) are subjective in nature, as they are determined by the personality of the subject making them.
12. In the direction:
Solutions for influencing the external environment of an enterprise concern the immediate environment, partners, clients, creditors;
Decisions to influence the internal environment of the enterprise are related to the managed system (for example, a change in staffing, which will entail the reduction of employees or the development of a new management structure, as a result of which a new top manager position will appear).
13. By scale:
General - affect the entire enterprise, its production and financial and economic activities. General management decisions determine fundamental changes in the enterprise, as well as further development of production (computerization of production and management processes, transition to the production of new products, reorganization of the enterprise, etc.);
Private - relate to any subsystems that affect current issues (for example, about discipline, about the dismissal of an employee, about changing the work schedule of a department, etc.).
14. According to the degree of alternativeness:
Certainty is the choice of an alternative in conditions when the results of each option are precisely known;
Uncertainty – choosing an alternative when it is impossible to assess the likelihood of potential outcomes;
Probabilistic certainty is the choice of an alternative in conditions of uncertainty of the results of the options.
15. By the nature of development and implementation (by style):
Balanced decisions imply that the decision maker's efforts to find and evaluate alternatives are distributed approximately equally. These solutions are effective for performers with high classification and high self-esteem;
Impulsive decisions mean that preparing alternative options takes much more time than evaluating them, and the decision is subjective and risky. To effectively implement impulsive decisions, the leader must have high personal and professional authority among his subordinates and his high charisma;
Inert decisions mean that the process of searching for different solutions is slow and uncertain. Such decisions are secondary, and the costs of justifying them significantly exceed the efforts spent on searching for options. They weakly motivate staff to implement decisions. Inert solutions are effective if there is an established process of management activity, good support from managers at all levels, and also with the opportunity to lobby their interests in the external environment.
Risky decisions are characterized by a higher intensity of work at the stage of searching for alternative options than at the stage of their evaluation. Such decisions are typical for gambling people – gamblers. These solutions are effective when there is a general positive attitude between the manager and the performers, when a possible failure does not significantly worsen the material and social condition of the team. Risky decisions usually involve insurance or other methods of reducing possible damage; Cautious decisions are characterized by the manager's careful collection of all options, a critical assessment of alternatives, and a large number of approvals. Such decisions are effective in resolving problems relating to human life and the state of his environment. For example, decisions related to personnel activities at nuclear, thermal and power plants
The composition, structure, content and form of management decisions are determined by the specified criteria and classification basis. So, with all their potential value, decisions will remain only good wishes if they are not translated into concrete actions. It is better not to start a business at all than to make unprofitable or even illegal decisions only on the grounds that they are well known, convenient or suit someone.
The main means of management activity that determine the technology for its implementation are information support, organizational management technology, conditions of management activity (organization of the workplace) and, naturally, professional - business, social - psychological and other personal qualities of the subject of the activity.
1.2 Basic elements of management decisions, basic requirements for them
The result of the manager's work is a management decision. The entire activity of the organization depends on what this decision will be, and whether the goal will be achieved or not. Therefore, making a decision by a manager always presents certain difficulties. This is due both to the responsibility that the manager assumes and to the uncertainty that is present when choosing one of the alternatives.
The main element of each management decision-making process is a problem, which is understood as the discrepancy between the actual state of the managed object (for example, in the provision of services) and the desired or specified one, i.e., the goal or result of the activity. Developing an action plan to correct the problem is the essence of the decision-making process.
The simplest, “ideal” decision-making scheme in Figure 1.5 assumes that the process is a straight-through movement from one stage to another; After identifying the problem and establishing the conditions and factors that led to its occurrence, solutions are developed, from which the best is selected.
Rice. 1.5 Stages of the decision-making process
A more detailed structuring of the decision-making process is presented in Figure 1.6, where within each stage (setting the decision-making problem, forming decisions, choosing and implementing a decision), the procedures necessary to implement the targets of each stage are highlighted.
Thus, the basis for setting a decision-making problem is the emergence of a situation that causes a problem to arise. The description of the problem situation provides an idea of the factors that need to be carefully analyzed and considered when making a decision. First of all, it is necessary to establish whether they are internal or external to a given organization, since the possibilities of influencing these two groups of factors are different.
The internal factors of the environment of wholesale and retail companies, to the greatest extent, include: goals and development strategy, production and management structure, financial and labor resources, purchasing and sourcing, marketing, inventory management. They form the enterprise as a system, the interconnection and interaction of the elements of which ensures the achievement of its goals. Therefore, a change in one or more factors simultaneously necessitates the adoption of management measures aimed at preserving the properties of the system as an integral entity.
The first group of external factors is practically uncontrollable by the organization's managers, but has an indirect (mediated) impact on its activities, which must be taken into account. It includes the state of the macroeconomic environment in which a specific industry operates. Usually these are economic, socio-demographic, political, legal and technological factors. For example, the economic state of a country (region) affects the work of an organization through such environmental parameters as the availability of capital and labor, price and inflation levels, labor productivity, customer income, government financial and tax policies, etc. Thus, inflation leads to a reduction in purchasing power capabilities and reduces the demand for products produced by the organization. An increase in the price level for products of related industries causes a corresponding increase in production costs in the organization, which results in an increase in prices for its products and can cause an “outflow” of a certain group of consumers. As their incomes decrease, buyers change the composition and structure of consumption, which can also affect demand. The level of scientific and technological development in the country has a strong impact on the structure of the economy, on the processes of automation of production and management, on the technology with which products are produced, on the composition and structure of personnel of organizations and, most importantly, on the competitiveness of products and technologies. Taking into account numerous and varied environmental factors, selecting the main ones among them and anticipating possible changes in their mutual influence is the most difficult task facing leaders and managers.
The second group of external factors are less susceptible to influence by the organization's managers. It includes the state of the microeconomic environment, which refers to aspects of the external environment that directly affect the organization due to its close interaction with the internal structures of the organization. This business environment includes competitors, suppliers, consumers, labor markets and financial institutions that initially shape the plans and activities of the company.
A necessary element (and parameter) of the management decision-making process is the assessment of the actions that are taken at its various stages.
Managerial is a decision made in the trading system and aimed at: managing the managed activity; marketing planning; financial planning; human resource management; interaction with the internal and external environment.
Thus, the decision-making process in retail trade must be carried out taking into account the characteristics of this area of the economy, as well as the influence of internal and external factors and restrictions. This will help improve the quality and validity of decisions at all levels of management.
At the first stage, a target setting is most often used as a criterion for recognizing a problem, by deviation from which the occurrence of a problem is judged.
The decision development stage begins with the collection and processing of information necessary to develop a course of action.
At the stage of selecting and implementing a solution to a problem, various criteria are applied to make it possible to select acceptable ones from a variety of project proposals, and from them, the most useful or preferable ones for solving the organization’s goals. The quality of management decisions depends on how well they are chosen, and this in turn determines the competitiveness of the organization, the speed of its adaptation to changes in the economic situation and, ultimately, efficiency and profitability.
Decision makers are called decision subjects. These may be individuals or groups of managers who have the authority to make decisions. In addition, experts - specialists in specific problems, procedures, and stages - can be involved in the development and decision-making process at all stages. Experts can provide significant assistance in formulating a problem and developing possible situations; they can formulate goals and set limits, develop solutions and assess their consequences, etc. Experts are responsible for their recommendations.
Management decisions developed and made in organizations affect the interests of many people. The manager must be able to explain to the performers and senior management why he made this or that decision. There are a number of requirements for a management decision (table 1.1).
Requirements for management decisions and conditions for achieving
| Requirements for SD and conditions for their preparation and implementation | Conditions for achieving requirements |
| 1. Compliance of the management system with current legislation and the company’s statutory documents | 1.Self-control 2.control by a lawyer, assistant |
| 2. Availability of official powers (rights and responsibilities) for managers for the PRSD | 1.Implementation of job descriptions 2. Availability of complete and reliable information about departments and services |
| 3. The presence in the text of the SD of a clear target orientation and targeting (performers should be clear what the solution being developed is aimed at and what means will be used) | 1. informing each performer of his role in management decisions 2.Formulation for each goal, deadlines, resources. |
| 4. Compliance of the form of the SD with its content | Control by a lawyer, assistant |
| 5. Achieving timeliness (no rush or late) | 1.Knowledge and intuition of the leader 2.Real assessment of the situation |
| 6. Absence in the text of the solution of contradictions to itself or previously implemented solutions | 1.Self-control 2.Control by a lawyer, assistant |
| 7. Possibility of technical, economic and organizational feasibility of SD | 1. Conclusion of specialists who understand the problem 2. Conclusion of the company’s experts |
| 8. Availability of parameters for external or internal control of SD implementation | 1. Operational control 2.Professional audit |
| 9. Taking into account possible negative consequences when implementing SD in economic, social, environmental and other areas | 1.Opinion of external experts, 2.Risk assessment |
10. Possibility of a justified positive result |
1. set (complex) of calculations for risky events 2. assessment of the true cost of this management decision 3. strategic forecasts for the company’s development when implementing this decision |
So, the presented diagram of the decision-making process reflects the logic of management activities, and not its complexity. In practice, this process is more complex and allows not only sequence, but also parallelism of a number of procedures, which can significantly reduce decision-making time. It helps to identify the important problems of a particular company, as well as the degree of uncertainty in which it operates. The effectiveness of this process largely depends on the methods that managers and executives operate in performing all the necessary types of management work.
1.3 Algorithm and methods for making management decisions
The most important organizational aspect of the development and implementation of management decisions is the organization of the sequence of work necessary to complete this process. Here, the type of management existing at the enterprise acquires special importance.
The theory of algorithms defines the concept of “algorithm” as a precise prescription that determines the process of transforming information. Algorithm for developing solutions - a logical sequence of operations for developing a management solution
Let's consider possible algorithms for the development and decision-making process for various types of management.
1. With traditional management:
Identifying the problem;
Collection of information;
Information analysis;
Identification of the problem with the previous one;
Forecasting by analogy;
Assessment and verification of solution options;
Adoption, registration, communication of the decision to the executors, its implementation, control of implementation.
Thus, decision-making under traditional management is based on the study of past experience in solving similar problems, as well as predicting consequences by analogy with previously observed consequences. These features leave their mark on the decision-making algorithm, which includes stages associated with identifying a similar problem and predicting results by analogy with those already obtained.
2. With system management:
Identifying the problem;
Collection of information;
Analysis of information about the system as a whole and the relationships of its elements;
Diagnosis of the problem;
Determining the goals of managing an element when solving a problem at the system level;
Development of criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the solution;
Developing options for possible actions on the subsystem that is the source of the problem;
Predicting these actions for the system as a whole;
Evaluation and verification of these actions;
Acceptance, registration, communication to performers, execution, control of execution.
Thus, in systems management, when understanding an organization as a set of interrelated elements, decision-making is based on the analysis of information about the system and its components, as well as predicting the consequences for the elements of the system and the system as a whole.
3. For situational management:
Identifying the problem;
Gathering information about the situation;
Analysis of information about the situation;
Diagnosis of the problem and situation;
Determining the goals of managing the situation when solving a problem;
A list of possible actions to resolve the situation, forecasts of their consequences;
Verification, evaluation of solution options;
Adoption, registration, communication to executors, execution, control of implementation of decisions.
The situational approach focuses on the fact that the suitability of various management methods is determined by the situation, therefore the decision-making algorithm includes the stages of collecting and analyzing information about the situation, determining the goals of managing the situation when solving a problem, and also predicting the consequences of control actions for the situation.
4. With social and ethical management:
Collection and analysis of information about the managed object (about problems and how they were solved);
Definition of the problem;
Determining the goals of solving the problem;
Development of criteria for evaluating an effective solution;
Forecasting consequences for various solution options;
Development of criteria for an optimal solution;
Verification of options;
Selecting the optimal solution;
Design, communication to performers, execution, control.
In social and ethical management, special attention when making decisions is paid to taking into account the permissible and unacceptable consequences of options for control actions according to various parameters
5. With stabilization management:
Identifying the problem;
Collection of information about parameter changes;
Information analysis;
Diagnosis of the problem;
Determining management goals when solving a problem;
Development of criteria for evaluating the solution;
Study of the dynamics of control object parameters;
Determining the time during which the object can still be stably controlled;
Distribution of available time for preparing and executing decisions to stabilize the managed object;
Development of solution options;
Forecast of the consequences of their use;
Assessment of the implementation of various options;
Choosing the optimal option;
Acceptance, registration, communication to performers, execution, control.
Naturally, to solve specific problems using one type of management or another, these algorithms can be changed in accordance with the specifics of a particular task.
In the process of developing and making management decisions, the decision maker can use various methods that directly or indirectly contribute to making decisions that are optimal according to various criteria.
In the literature on management and decision-making technology, there are various approaches to the classification of methods. In this work, a classification is adopted according to the degree of formalization: non-formalized, formalized and combined. The criterion for assignment to a particular group is the use of quantitative information methods.
Informalized (heuristic methods) of decision making are distinguished by a creative approach to the search for alternatives; they are based on the analytical abilities of the decision maker.
The advantage of informal methods is that they are applied quickly. Disadvantage: methods do not always guarantee the selection of error-free decisions; intuition can also fail a manager.
Figure 1.8 shows the characteristics of a sample of informal methods for developing management decisions.
Rice. 1.8. Informalized methods of making management decisions
Gordon's method. The essence of the method: the formation of a working group of non-specialists on the problem under consideration. Purpose and conditions of application of the method: to overcome established ideas in solving the problem under consideration. Features of the method: use non-traditional approaches to solve the problem.
Motivational research method. Essence: the most important type of marketing research (mainly qualitative), which consists of studying the motives for purchasing a certain product/service at the unconscious, subconscious and conscious levels of the buyer’s psyche. Purpose and conditions for using the method: to improve the company’s marketing policy in order to increase demand for goods/services.
Method of morphological analysis. The point: possible combinations of solutions to a problem are identified and then explored. A morphological matrix can be used, where solution options are located along the drains, and elements of the problem itself are located in the columns.
Consumer expectation model. The bottom line: the model is a forecast based on the results of a survey of the organization's clients. They are asked to evaluate their own needs in the future, as well as their new requirements. By collecting all the data obtained, the manager can accurately predict aggregate demand.
Round table method. The essence: in accordance with the method, a special commission that is part of this round table discusses relevant problems in order to harmonize opinions and develop a common opinion.
Inventory method. The essence: compiling a list of difficulties standing in the way of solving this problem, discussing options for eliminating or overcoming barriers to decision making and implementation.
Formalized methods for developing solutions are based on a scientific and practical approach that offers the choice of optimal solutions using EMMM and computers. This also includes statistical methods; they are based on the use of information about the past experience of an organization in any field of activity for development and implementation and are implemented through the collection, processing and analysis of statistical materials, both obtained as a result of real activities and those generated artificially through mathematical computer modeling.
Balance method. The essence: a method that allows you to make balance sheet comparisons and linkages. For example, income and expenses, costs and profits are compared and the most profitable option is selected.
Histogram method. The essence: an illustration of the frequency of occurrence of individual parameter values appears in the form of a histogram. It shows (horizontally) the number of corresponding cases or their share in the total number of cases for each parameter value (horizontally). The histogram shows the frequency of occurrence of average values. Different solutions may be chosen, but the most likely ones are chosen more often.
Game theory method. The essence of the method: assessing the impact of the decision on competitors. Purpose and conditions of application of the method: used to determine the most important factors that require consideration in a decision-making situation in a competitive environment. Features of the method: it is not used so often due to the complexity and dynamism of the external environment.
Factor analysis method. The bottom line: analysis allows for the greatest possible consideration of the totality of variables that characterize an object and the relationships between them. At the same time, the forecaster is forced to seek a compromise between the number of variables in the description, reflecting the completeness of the forecast, and its complexity and labor intensity
Method of functional cost analysis. The essence of the method: identifying areas of imbalance between the functions of the object and the costs for them. Purpose and conditions for using the method: used to select solutions and optimize costs for performing the functions of an object without compromising their quality. Features of the method: has high practical usefulness.
IDEF modeling method. The essence of the method: analysis and development of systems. Purpose and conditions for using the method: it is used for modeling and analyzing the activities of enterprises, as it provides a rich set of opportunities for reengineering business processes. Features of the method: the method is based on the technology of structured analysis and development.
Combined methods for developing management decisions combine elements of informal and formalized methods, shown in Figure 1.11.
SWOT analysis method. Essence: the SWOT analysis methodology involves identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the organization’s internal environment, as well as identifying opportunities and threats in its external environment. Establishing chains of connections between these parameters allows us to develop strategic directions (goals) for the development of the organization.
Delphi method. The essence: analysis of the situation by generating ideas, discussing them, evaluating and developing a collective point of view. Purpose and conditions for using the methods: used to discuss the problem that has arisen and establish the main factors that determine its further development. Features of the method: high requirements for the level of qualifications and competence of the leader heading the expert meeting.
Decision tree method. Gist: This is a schematic representation of a decision problem. Like the payoff matrix, the decision tree allows the manager to “consider different courses of action, relate financial results to them, adjust them according to the probability assigned to them, and then compare alternatives.” The concept of expected value is an integral part of the decision tree method.
Brainstorming method. Essence: This method is the most well known of all group methods for harnessing creativity. Brainstorming can be used to solve a very wide range of problems. However, it is particularly useful in diagnosing situations and coming up with alternatives. The main stages of using the brainstorming method:
1. For work, a small group is formed, preferably no more than eight people; 2. A chairman is selected to coordinate the activities of the group. The secretary's job is to ensure that all ideas put forward are recorded; 3. All group members become familiar with the situation; 4. The group leader gives a brief comment and states the purpose of the work; 5. As a result of individual work, group members put forward the maximum number of ideas in a limited time (usually half an hour); 6. All ideas must be registered; 7. Using (not copying) the ideas of other group members is encouraged; 8. Discussion or criticism of the ideas put forward is not allowed. This rule is especially important in brainstorming situations where it is very easy to show disapproval through verbal or nonverbal means; 9. After completing the stage of putting forward alternatives, they are discussed and evaluated. At the same time, it is possible to put forward new ideas, which can be combinations, generalizations of previously put forward ideas, or completely new ideas.
The method is nominally group. Essence It differs from other group methods in that the stage of evaluating individually put forward ideas is regulated in more detail. The nominal group method includes the following main steps.
1. Members create independent lists of ideas; 2. Each group member describes one of his ideas to the whole group; 3. Once all ideas are listed, they are discussed and evaluated by the group; 4. To reach the final decision, group members vote separately for each of the ideas put forward.
Multi-stage survey method. The bottom line: when using the multi-stage survey method, each expert should give a rating on a pre-specified scale in the interval or order objects by decreasing their value - ordinal ordering of any set of elements. To obtain a high-quality forecast, a number of requirements are imposed on the examination participants:
High level of general erudition;
Deep specialized knowledge;
The presence of scientific interest in the object under study in the absence of material interest in this area;
Availability of research experience in this area.
An important element is the anonymity of experts. It helps to avoid “pressure of authority”, the emergence of interpersonal conflicts based on differences in status or social coloring of opinions.
Method of forced connections. Essence: This method is based on the connection of ideas, but the degree of freedom is limited to the objects in question, which are usually chosen arbitrarily. Frequently, panelists will explore areas they have never considered before. The forced linkage method is particularly useful in situations where new uses for existing products or services are being sought.
Payment matrix method. The essence of the method: evaluation and comparison of alternatives according to several criteria. Purpose and conditions for using the method: when it is necessary to take into account several parameters when evaluating alternatives. Features of the method: the validity of the choice of criteria to achieve strategic goals is important.
So, the values of the decision will remain only good wishes if they are not translated into concrete actions. Methods can be universal, suitable for any problem, and can be specific. Which method to use depends on the real content of the problem, and not on the knowledge, desire and ability of the manager or employee. It is better not to start a business at all than to accept unprofitable or even illegal methods only on the grounds that they are well known, convenient or suit someone.
So, to successfully solve problems:
Firstly, timely notice and analyze the problem in order to find out what led to its occurrence and actually strive to solve it.
Secondly, do not waste time on unnecessary decisions that do not affect the efficiency of the company.
Thirdly, constantly evaluate the effectiveness of the decision-making process, and subsequently the implementation of the decision.
Fourth, do not make multiple decisions on the same issue.
Fifthly, involve employees related to them in the decision-making process at the earliest stages of work, taking into account the correspondence of their qualifications to the degree of complexity of the problem; train them as necessary and do not forget to reward them for success.
Decision-making technology is a set of scientific methods, models and techniques for developing and making management decisions.
Chapter 2. Experience in the adoption of management technologies using the example of the company ZAO VNESHTORGSIB-M
2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise and the mechanism for making management decisions at the enterprise ZAO "VNESHTORGSIB - M"
CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M has been operating on the Russian market since 1993. Since its founding, the company has focused on the supply and trade of imported goods.
The company "Vneshtorgsib - M" is the official representative of the German brand "PAPSTAR" - the only large-scale project in Russia of goods for a cozy interior, a festive table, cocktails and buffets, picnics and holidays, an aromatic line.
The goals of creating a company are: meeting the needs of individuals and legal entities for products (works, services) produced by the Company; Receiving a profit.
The mission of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M is to satisfy customer demand by providing them with high-quality and related products at affordable prices.
In CJSC “Vneshtorgsib-M” at this time there are the following divisions:
1.Wholesale base
2. Administration, located on the street. Kotovskogo 5
3. Gifts store on the street. Ordzhonikidze 27
4. Shop "Gifts" on the street. Kotovskogo 5
5. Shopping center "Podmoskovye" opened in July 2006, cash-and-carry shopping center format.
6 Specialized station where residential trailers of the “Hobby” brand, Germany and motorhomes of the “Hymer” brand are rented and sold,
Germany, tent trailers of the “Camp-Let” brand, Denmark, and also repairs them. Operating since June 2007.
Figure 2.12 shows the share of activities of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M in the total volume.
Figure 2.12 Share of activities of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M in the total volume
Positive advantages in relation to internal resources are the following:
The company has a high level of professionalism, which is important because the desire of consumers to have an unlimited choice in the goods and services presented to them.
A positive factor is the presence of a developed logistics infrastructure, which allows you to plan inventories and deliver on time.
The enterprise has implemented partially comprehensive automation of business processes, automation of business management operations in accounting departments and stores, which allows making operational management decisions and adequately responding to market changes, and has implemented a unified document flow that speeds up business operations.
The assortment of the enterprise under study is presented by the following product groups in Table 2.2:
Table 2.2 Assortment of goods presented in the divisions of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M
Quite a lot of attention is paid to the policy of assortment formation at the enterprise under study - a constant assessment of the completeness and sustainability of the assortment is carried out.
When forming the assortment, the financial director of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M is guided by the demand of end consumers of products. The company ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M strives to fully satisfy the needs of customers.
In order to activate and stimulate sales, the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M uses advertising and public relations. The limit on advertising costs is currently limited to 3% of revenue received.
The main goal that is recommended to be pursued by Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC when organizing its own work can be summarized as follows: to help ensure that the company’s advertising policy meets the consumer needs of potential buyers.
The organizational structure is presented in more detail in Appendix 1.
The functions of the head office consist of direction and control, the entire decision-making process is concentrated in the head office.
In accordance with the current functional structure of enterprise management, the following composition of the main functions and services that ensure their implementation is approved; more details can be found in Appendix 2:
· CEO
· involved specialists - lawyer, translator, technical personnel, security service.
· financial department – financial director, finance manager;
· accounting – chief accountant, bookkeeper, senior cashier;
· HR department – head of the HR department – clerk;
· trading department – commercial director; Deputy Commercial Director; wholesale manager, retail manager
· stores – department directors, section heads, senior salesperson, sales consultants
· wholesale base - director, merchandiser, sales consultant, driver, mechanics.
So, let's give a brief description of the functional responsibilities of employees of the enterprise and departments.
General Director - he is at the head of the company, without a power of attorney he represents on behalf of the Company; represents the interests of the Company in all Russian and foreign institutions, enterprises and organizations; concludes transactions on behalf of the company, with the exception of those the conclusion of which falls within the competence of the general meeting of shareholders, the Board of Directors and the board of the Company; concludes employment agreements (contracts) with the Company’s employees, with the exception of members of the Company’s board; issues powers of attorney; issues orders and instructions that are mandatory for execution by all employees of the Company.
The financial director is the right hand of the commercial director, develops the marketing policy for the enterprise based on an analysis of the consumer properties of the products sold and predicts market demand and market conditions.
The commercial director - this person, on the scale of this company, performs a large number of functions that were very interesting to me, as a future manager of the organization. Since the entire burden of the direct process of managing product distribution, drawing up primary documentation, working with personnel (managers), organizing and conducting meetings and presentations is placed on his shoulders. And also, drawing up commercial proposals, managing money spent on advertising campaigns, business correspondence, etc.
Table 2.3 Functional structure of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M
| Job title | Functions |
| Translator | Helps in negotiations with foreign companies, makes translations on goods. |
| Lawyer - consultant | Development of legal documents, legal assistance to structural divisions of the company (stores) in preparing responses when making claims. |
| Financial department | Carries out the development of financial policy at the enterprise based on an analysis of the consumer properties of products sold and predicts market demand and market conditions. The department organizes the development of a strategy for conducting advertising events in the media using outdoor, illuminated, electronic, postal, and transport advertising. |
| Accounting | The department ensures the organization's reporting, necessary both for internal management purposes and for presentation to external users. The accountant reports to the CEO on the annual report and presents a report on financial results. The director makes decisions on the results of the enterprise's activities, decides on the target distribution of profits, the size of funds and reserves. |
| Human Resources Department | Manages the work of staffing the enterprise with workers and employees of the required professions, specialties and qualifications in accordance with the goals, strategy, and profile of the organization, changing external and internal conditions of its activities. Ensures the preparation of documents on pension insurance, as well as documents necessary for the assignment of pensions employees of the company and their families. |
| Information and technical department | Competent and accurate writing of new codes and product names, processing of documents in a single database. Correspondence with foreign partners. |
| Sales Department | Carries out activities for the supply and sale of products in order to increase the profit of the enterprise; plans and analyzes sales, takes measures to increase turnover; develops and implements measures to compensate for the decline in sales for seasonal product groups. Draws up contractual relations, orders goods, monitors short deliveries and mis-grading of goods; promptly notifies suppliers about mis-grading and non-delivery of goods, requests certificates; makes an analysis of seasonal, calendar and other factors influencing fluctuations in demand. |
| Wholesale base | Carries out the activities of supplying products to retail departments of the organization. Works with large wholesalers, by bank transfer. |
| The shops | They carry out retail sales of goods and work with small wholesale buyers. |
So, at this enterprise there is a functional principle of construction and specialization of the management process according to the functional subsystems of the organization. The functions of the head office of Vneshtorgsib - M include direction and control, the entire decision-making process is concentrated in the head office. At Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC, the final result takes a back seat, due to the fact that each service does not work to obtain it, but to perform its “mechanical” duties.
To increase the competitiveness of the enterprise of Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC, it is important to have clearly defined goals and objectives set for execution, since it is a well-defined goal that will influence the efficiency of the enterprise. It is also necessary that each department of the enterprise set for itself a specific goal, which, together with others, will help achieve the common goal. To achieve the goals of the enterprise, each department performs the corresponding tasks; accordingly, the tasks also have a significant role in the internal structure of the enterprise.
The existing technology for making and executing decisions does not allow top-level tasks (profit, sales, resource savings) to be communicated to all lower-level units.
2.2 The process of making management decisions at the enterprise ZAO "VNESHTORGSIB - M"
Management decision making is based on certain documentation. All documents that are circulated in the document management system of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M are divided as follows and are presented in Appendix 3.
The decision-making process affects all aspects of management. Management activities in terms of the formation and implementation of decisions at the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M consists of the following stages:
1. Preparation of management decisions
2. Providing procedures for making and making management decisions
3.Implementation of management decisions
4.Planning management decisions
5. Monitoring the implementation of the decision
Table 2.4 Distribution of powers at the stages of decision-making technology at CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M
As can be seen from the stages of the process, management decision-making strongly depends on the personal factor, since in essence, decisions in the company are made by only one person, the general director.
Using the management matrix, you can illustrate the level of distribution of powers when making management decisions at the enterprise.
“1” indicates actual responsibility.
“2” is general guidance.
“3” - the need to consult.
“4” - “opportunity” to consult.
“5” - must be notified
Table. 2.5 Distribution of powers in decision making
| Director | Inform. Department | Fin. Department | Accounting | Dressing staff | Sales Department | Divisions | |
| Activity planning | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Conducting performance analysis | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Financial planning | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Accounting | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Marketing planning | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Supplying the company with goods | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Documentation of trade and technological operations | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Human Resource Management | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
We will assess the level of decision-making using a 5-point system (see Table 2.6).
Table 2.6 Assessment of the level of decision-making by enterprise personnel
| Decision maker | Assessing the quality of decision making | Explanations |
| Director | 3 | Too authoritarian decisions, rarely uses the opinions of other specialists |
| Chief Accountant | 3 | |
| Financial Director | 4 | |
| Commercial Director | 4 | There are attempts at a creative approach, limited by the authority of the director |
| Head of HR Department (Clerk) | 3 | The decisions are formulaic and based on the instructions of the CEO |
| Directors of divisions | 3 | The solutions are formulaic and do not consider other alternatives and possibilities. |
| Sales staff | 3 | They do not show independence and rely on the instructions of the general director and division directors |
So, as can be seen from the process of making management decisions, decision makers partially show attempts at a creative approach, but basically the entire process is implemented on the implementation of a specific decision set by the general director. The management decision-making process in the company ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M is authoritarian. Making management decisions strongly depends on the personal factor, since in essence, decisions in the company ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M are made by only one person - the general director
There is no information to staff about the current results of the enterprise’s activities; employees are informed about changes that occur after the fact.
2.3 Typical problems of the enterprise ZAO "VNESHTORGSIB - M"
The ineffectiveness of the existing decision-making mechanism at the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M is evidenced by the fact that the enterprise has an outdated management system.
Retail trade plays a big role in our lives. Consequently, trade and retail companies are commercial organizations that sell goods and services to consumers for personal and home consumption. Retailers provide goods and services only individually and their customers are end consumers who purchase goods and services for personal use and not for resale to third parties.
As a service industry, retail must rely on its employees to introduce stores to consumers, creating important touchpoints with them. Therefore, personnel costs should be one of the most important expenses in the industry. However, the retail industry has a poor reputation as a job creator. Retailers must provide services to people when those services are actually needed, increasing the length of the industry's workday and workweek.
Accordingly, one of the problems of Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC is the lack of qualified sales personnel. The company constantly has a turnover of sales consultants; after the new year, four sales people left at once.
During the work, an oral survey of employees of the organization under study was conducted. 26 of 36 employees were interviewed.
Let's analyze the information received.
Salary amount.
80% of respondents noted average satisfaction with the level of wages. It is necessary to increase material incentives for employees by increasing wages or organizing a system of bonuses and bonuses to increase the indicator.
Prospects for professional and career growth.
The survey showed that more than half of employees do not see prospects for growth in this organization.
Management should take a greater interest in the growth and progress of employees. This may be expressed in the fact that the employee will be assigned more complex work, or the employee can be delegated more responsibility for performing a certain job.
Relationships with the immediate supervisor.
80% of respondents responded that they were not satisfied with this indicator.
The importance and responsibility of the work performed.
Only 40% of surveyed workers are satisfied with this indicator. This is due to the small number of staff. It is important to understand that the failure of even one employee can affect the financial position of the company.
Relationships with work colleagues.
60% of respondents responded that they were quite satisfied with this indicator. In the future, the organization should implement activities aimed at maintaining good relationships between employees.
Opportunities to demonstrate independence and initiative at work.
All respondents responded that they were not satisfied with this indicator. The General Director of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M should be given more initiative in the duties performed by employees.
JSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" still manages to some extent to compete with large companies and federal operators, due to the ability to set low prices, being an official representative, due to the high quality of goods and stores located in the city center. And maintain your market niche.
Important for the formalization of expert information is the expert’s ability to compare and evaluate the possible values of the characteristics of the object of analysis by assigning a certain number to each characteristic. Depending on the scale on which these preferences are specified, expert assessments contain more or less information.
In general, it is assumed that the opinion of a group of experts is more reliable than the opinion of an individual, i.e. that two groups of equally competent experts are more likely to give similar answers to a set of questions than two individuals.
The experts were asked to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise. At the first stage of the analysis, experts assessed the weight of each of the listed parameters for the industry. The weight of a parameter characterizes its importance, priority, in the overall set of indicators.
Table 2.7 Analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M
Components of the internal environment |
Efficiency of environmental components | Importance | |||||||
| neutral | |||||||||
| Marketing: | |||||||||
| Reputation of the organization and products | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Market share | + | + | |||||||
| Product quality | + | – | – | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Production costs | – | – | – | + | – | – | – | – | |
| Distribution costs | – | – | – | + | – | – | + | ||
| Promotion efficiency | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Sales force efficiency | – | – | – | – | – | + | – | ||
| Finance: | – | ||||||||
| Financial stability | – | – | – | + | – | – | – | – | |
| Debt | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | ||
| Inventory level | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | ||
| Share price | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Level of innovation | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Financial Accounting | – | – | – | + | – | + | – | – | |
| Organization and personnel: | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Entrepreneurial orientation | - | - | + | – | – | + | + | – | |
| Level of management organization | – | – | + | – | – | - | + | – | |
| Management qualifications | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Personnel qualifications | – | – | – | + | – | + | – | – | |
| Rationality of distribution of rights and responsibilities | – | – | – | + | + | – | + | - | |
| System of values: | |||||||||
| Presence of traditions, symbols, rituals | – | – | + | – | – | + | – | – | |
| Motivation system | – | – | – | + | – | + | – | – | |
| Psychological climate in the team | – | – | – | + | + | – | – | ||
The external environment is of exceptionally great importance for trading enterprises. To present it, we will briefly characterize the main parameters of the external environment that also affect the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M (Table 2.8).
Table 2.8 External environment of the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M
| Macro environment |
The tax burden is high and does not allow business to actively develop High customs duties, market registration and licensing Inflation rates are increasing The political situation in the country has stabilized There are many unemployed in society, including in the industry Quality characteristics are constantly improving |
| Immediate environment |
Inability to maintain a matrix of goods imported from Europe due to constant changes in the assortment by manufacturers Buyers are sensitive to price changes Income growth of the population and firms The time schedule for delivery of goods is determined depending on the type of product and ranges from one to several months Entering the market of competitors with lower costs |
Using the “importance effectiveness” matrix on the table, based on the results of the analysis, we will compile the highest and lowest importance that is worth paying attention to (Table 2.9)
Table 2.9 Importance-effectiveness matrix
| Importance | Efficiency | |
| low | high | |
| high | Requires special attention Production costs; Distribution costs; Financial instability; Motivation system; Psychological climate in the team. |
Maintains a high level Product quality; Availability of exclusive products; Long-term contracts with key suppliers and exporters |
| low | Low priority Reducing the crime situation in the country; Customs legislation remains unchanged; Lack of managerial training of a number of managers. |
Excessive attention to unimportant factors Entrepreneurial orientation Changing customer needs and tastes |
So, the level of decision-making at the enterprise is low, this is reflected in its financial condition. It is necessary to improve financial results, increase market share and the efficiency of the management system as a whole. To do this, first of all, the enterprise needs to improve the system of development and decision-making.
Chapter 3. Ways to improve the technology of accepting management at CJSC "VNESHTORGSIB - M"
The Vneshtorgsib-M enterprise is recommended to: - introduce into management the decision-making algorithm for situational management described in clause 1.3; - distribute responsibility for collecting and analyzing information about the situation; - involve company employees in decision-making, giving them greater powers; - decision-making is carried out using various methods of management decision-making technology. We will illustrate the application of these measures by assessing the increase in the efficiency of financial accounting.
3.1 Efficiency of management decisions at CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M
Evaluation of the effectiveness of a management decision is determined not only by its validity, but also by the degree of its implementation in accordance with the requirements of the decision maker.
Effectiveness comes from the word effect, which means the impression someone makes on someone. This impression may have organizational, economic, psychological, legal, ethical, technological and social overtones. The effect can be observed or formed.
Management of the effectiveness of management decisions is implemented through a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators, norms and quality standards.
The efficiency of a trading enterprise is ensured by the successful implementation of services. The resources of the enterprise and the requirements for profitable operation to a certain extent limit maneuvering, both in the range of services and in their prices. But it is the focus on customer demand and its active formation that should determine the use of available resources.
The relationship between result and cost characterizes the effectiveness of any activity or phenomenon. It can be positive or negative. Thus, we can talk about organizational, economic and other efficiency.
In our case, we will talk about the effectiveness of financial results.
The trading activities of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M are divided into main and management and auxiliary. The main activity involves the sale of goods, works and services. Auxiliary, carries out repairs and reconstruction, construction of buildings and structures; repair of company vehicles, supply of materials necessary for the operation of the enterprise, etc. The manager performs regulatory and supervisory functions.
Let's pay attention to the main trading activities and consider the dynamics of changes in trade turnover in the table over the past four years.
Table 3.10 Changes in turnover of the company ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M
| Indicator, thousand rubles. | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Trade turnover | 111945 | 134577 | 162111 | 195395 |
| 1st quarter | 17962 | 47652 | 26979 | 25296 |
| special services station | - | - | - | 6659 |
| 2nd quarter | 26744 | 59911 | 43189 | 47200 |
| special services station | - | - | - | 9100 |
| 3rd quarter | 29784 | 13572 | 45374 | 41617 |
| special services station | - | - | - | 9600 |
| 4th quarter | 37456 | 44214 | 46570 | 45783 |
| special services station | - | - | - | 10140 |
| Costs including: | 109480 | 133494 | 162038 | 196143 |
| - cost of goods | 43423 | 51167 | 61400 | 74035 |
| - materials used in repairs | - | - | - | 12166 |
| - rent and utility payments | 6030 | 6210 | 6320 | 7125 |
| - administrative | 4250 | 7145 | 9560 | 8956 |
| - remuneration of employees | 29545 | 32457 | 34120 | 43652 |
| - taxes | 9548 | 9231 | 10250 | 12511 |
| - nutrition | 2103 | 2468 | 2576 | 2874 |
| - acquisition of fixed assets | 487 | 1644 | 3674 | 2548 |
| - communications, information services | 316 | 531 | 562 | 463 |
| -maintenance of vehicles | 1023 | 1455 | 1987 | 2145 |
| - general trade | 855 | 1520 | 1987 | 2650 |
| - technological costs | 1020 | 1999 | 2630 | 2880 |
| - transportation of goods | 3567 | 3658 | 5012 | 4950 |
| - general economic needs | 410 | 623 | 755 | 987 |
| - construction | 6903 | 13386 | 21205 | 18201 |
| Financial results | 2465 | 1083 | 73 | -748 |
Considering the sales dynamics, we note that the main demand for goods and services offered to consumers occurs in the second, third and fourth quarters of the year. The seasonality of demand for products is very important. Comparing four years, we note that every year there is an increase in trade turnover by approximately 20 percent. This is due to the opening of the Kotovsky store in 2005, the Moscow Region store in 2006, and a specialized station on Chasovaya in 2007. In 2004, the territory was purchased, where construction of a specialized station began and continues to this day. In this regard, in the next three years, the enterprise’s costs increased as much as possible for: maintaining additionally attracted workers; purchase of construction materials and inventory items; fixed assets. From the table you can see a stable increase in costs: in 2005 compared to 2004 they increased by 21.9%; in 2006 compared to 2005 by 21.4%; in 2007 by 21%, and compared to 2004 - by 79.2%. The diagram and graph of changes in income and expenses are shown in Figure 3.15, respectively.
Fig.3.15. Diagram of changes in income and expenses
Fig.3.16. Schedule of changes in income and expenses
The diagram is convenient for studying changes in income and expenses over four years. By studying the graph, you can immediately pay attention to the point of intersection of income and expense. At this point, the company is on the verge of profit or loss. In connection with the expansion of activities, there was a need to increase personnel, so from 2004 to 2007 the number of employees increased from 42 to 70 people, this led to an increase in the wage fund by 47.7 percent compared to 2004.
With the increase in trade turnover, the costs of transporting goods increased by 38.7%.
The construction of the station required significant funds. The company's own funds remaining from retained earnings were not enough; therefore, credit resources were attracted, the interest on which increased the “administrative expenses” item by almost 100 percent.
Administrative expenses also increased due to: costs for recruiting personnel, security services, legal services (document preparation).
Rent, utility bills, communications, information services, and general business needs have not changed significantly over four years.
Although trade turnover also increased compared to 2004 - by 74.5%, it can be concluded that the management personnel, led by the general, financial director and chief accountant, did not monitor the increase in costs and did not take measures to minimize them. This led to a disastrous result: by the beginning of 2007, profit gave way to loss (748 thousand rubles). Wage debts also increased by 12,132.
For further analysis and management of costs, it is advisable to classify them into variable and constant.
Variables:
Cost of goods;
Transportation of goods;
Materials used in repairs;
Payment to employees;
International negotiations;
Technological costs.
Permanent:
Rent and utility payments;
Administrative;
Nutrition;
Acquisition of fixed assets;
Communications, information services;
General economic needs.
So, assessing the effectiveness of decision implementation is the most difficult, labor-intensive and time-consuming stage of the decision-making process. At the same time, this is also the weakest link in the process of management activity, as evidenced by the delays in implementation and the insufficient effectiveness of implemented decisions observed in management practice.
In a company's activities, a necessary condition for effective functioning is the balance of interests of all business participants (owners, managers, staff, contractors, clients, etc.).
The enterprise is considered quite large in terms of turnover, but the organization of activities is at the level of a small enterprise and currently management accounting as such is not provided. In the next one, we will try to organize management accounting, primarily by identifying centers of financial responsibility and introducing budget management.
To implement the management accounting subsystem, it was necessary to conduct a business diagnostic (a kind of “inventory”) of the company. In the process of business diagnostics, the current state of the structure and management system of the company is assessed and the effectiveness of the existing financial planning and control system is analyzed in terms of completeness, reliability and efficiency of information provision. An assessment of the current state of the management system at ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M was carried out at the beginning of this chapter, on the basis of which the decision was made to introduce management accounting.
After the diagnostics, a concept for creating a financial system is developed. The goals, objectives and principles of its construction, the composition and structure of the system (centers of financial responsibility, forms of regulations) are determined. The processes of planning, control and analysis are described. Then the procedure for developing, implementing and maintaining the system is determined. The action plan for the implementation of management accounting is presented below. Action plan for the implementation of management accounting
Stage 1. Preliminary
a) Analysis of the financial condition of the organization to justify the need to introduce management accounting
b) Determination of goals, objectives and principles for constructing the structure of the management system
2) Stage. Organizational
a) Development of a policy for the introduction of management accounting
b) Formation of financial responsibility centers
c) Training events for department managers
3) Stage. Basic
a) Determination of deadlines for submitting budgets for review and approval
b) Development of forms and formation of budgets for cost and profit centers
c) Formation of consolidated and general budgets
d) Implementation of a budget management system based on the 1C program
4) Stage. Controlling
a) Implementation of a control system for the economic group over expenses incurred
b) Quarterly meetings based on the results of the reporting period
The implementation of the financial system is proceeding in two directions:
· the main budget of the company is developed, which is a system of comprehensive budget planning for all activities and depends on business processes;
· budgets of structural divisions and consolidated budgets are built, the composition of which depends on the organizational structure of the company.
At the end of the year, before December fifteenth, each division submits its budget for the next year, scheduled quarterly, for consideration by management. Until the 25th, a commission consisting of the general director, financial director, chief accountant and division directors approves the budget for the next reporting period.
When building a financial system, it is necessary to provide and build a system for monitoring the implementation of budgets. It consists not only in the timely submission of budget data and the creation of budgets, but also in the analysis of deviations of the actual values of budget items from the planned ones. Based on the analysis of deviations, appropriate management decisions are made.
Let's look at an example of analyzing actual results. Let the income be planned for the amount of 5000.00 rubles, expenses for 4500.00 rubles, then the profit is 500.00 rubles.
1) income – 4800.00, expense – 4200.00, profit – 600.00. In this case, the division manager did not fulfill the income plan by 4%, but reduced costs by 6.7%, thereby increasing profit by 100.00 rubles (20%). By and large, this option can satisfy higher management, with the condition that the manager will work to increase profits.
2) income – 5200.00, expense – 4800.00, profit – 400.00. The opposite situation is that income increased by 4% compared to the plan, and expenses increased by 6.7%, which led to a decrease in profit by 100.00 rubles. Conclusion - it is necessary to introduce measures to reduce costs.
3) income – 5200.00, expense – 4300.00, profit – 900.00. An ideal job for a manager, deserving of encouragement. By increasing revenue by 4%, he reduced costs by 4.4%. And the division's profit increased by 80%.
4) income – 4800.00, expense – 4900.00, loss – 100.00. In this case, the manager did not fulfill the income plan by 4%. An increase in costs by 9% led to a loss. The department needs to review the cost item to reduce them.
Control over the expenses incurred is carried out by the head of the department - the cost center, profit, and before the necessary expenses are paid, they must be endorsed by the financier, confirming that the payment went through the department's budget. Off-budget payments are made based on memos and budget adjustments.
The system for monitoring the execution of budgets involves holding meetings of the enterprise management and division directors at the end of each reporting period - quarter, where the following are discussed: the reasons for negative deviations of profits and costs from the budget; the need to carry out activities to increase sales and minimize costs. At the end of each quarter, based on positive results of budget execution, units that have fulfilled the plan are awarded bonuses in accordance with established bonus rates.
The budget management system can be implemented on the basis of the 1C program, which will make it possible to monitor budget execution on a daily basis, both by individual departments and for the enterprise as a whole.
The company uses its main working capital to pay for goods. In this regard, the problem of monitoring the timeliness of payment and compliance of terms with contractual terms is very important. To be able to control payments to suppliers, it is necessary to develop a form for planning payments, from which you will see not only the total debt, contractual payment terms, overdue debt and the cost of inventory, but also the turnover of the supplier. All this information will allow you to evaluate the effectiveness of working with a specific supplier, and provide automatic control over payment terms, which will lead to control over the cost of production. At ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M, an analysis of the dynamics of development of retail trade turnover for 2004-2007 was carried out on the basis of accounting data. allows us to draw the following conclusions:
· retail trade turnover of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M is increasing from year to year, its growth rate is high;
· an increase in trade turnover has been achieved for all product groups traded by the company;
· the increase in trade turnover was mainly achieved through the effective use of all types of resources: commodity, labor, etc.;
· in 2007, the company actively worked on additional purchases of goods from the manufacturer and other suppliers.
At the same time, the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M did not take advantage of all the opportunities for growth in trade turnover in 2004-2007. Thus, the volume of retail trade turnover could increase due to:
· improving the availability and efficiency of use of commodity resources;
· increasing: the efficiency of using labor resources;
increasing the efficiency of using the company’s material and technical base. The search for new suppliers and, as a result, an increase in the range of goods will allow Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC to reduce the influence of the seasonal factor on changes in trade turnover.
The calculation of seasonal fluctuations in the turnover of the enterprise under study is given in Table 3.11.
Table 3.11 Calculation of seasonal fluctuations in trade turnover of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M (thousand rubles)
| Year | Average turnover of the same months |
Seasonality index (gr. 6: total tr, 6) |
||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Total | |||
| January | 425 | 440 | 450 | 1315 | 438,3 | 0,95 |
| February | 420 | 460 | 470 | 1350 | 450 | 0,980 |
| March | 480 | 560 | 580 | 1620 | 540 | 1,172 |
| April | 460 | 530 | 540 | 1530 | 510 | 1,107 |
| May | 445 | 480 | 500 | 1425 | 475 | 1,031 |
| June | 420 | 425 | 430 | 1275 | 425 | 0,922 |
| July | 415 | 420 | 425 | 1260 | 420 | 0,911 |
| August | 415 | 405 | 425 | 1245 | 415 | 0,901 |
| September | 450 | 430 | 440 | 1320 | 440 | 0,955 |
| October | 460 | 440 | 470 | 1370 | 456,7 | 0,991 |
| November | 400 | 440 | 560 | 1400 | 466,7 | 1,013 |
| December | 430 | 450 | 600 | 1480 | 493,3 | 1,070 |
| Total | 5220 | 5480 | 5890 | 16 590 | 460,8 (16 590:36) | 1,000 |
The volume of trade turnover for the planned year by month is determined by multiplying the average monthly trade turnover plan by the seasonality index.
The enterprise's turnover plan for the year is set at 24 million rubles. The average monthly turnover is 2 million rubles. Using the table data, we calculate the store’s turnover plan for March. It will be: 2 million rubles. * 1.172 = 2344 thousand rubles.
The final stage of planning is to determine the commodity structure of trade turnover. The financial result of the enterprise’s activities largely depends on how well the range of goods sold meets the demand of the population. For traditional groups of goods, the economic-statistical method has proven itself in practice when, based on the existing rates of change in sales volumes of individual product groups, adjusted to take into account expected changes in the economic development of the enterprise in the coming period, a plan for their implementation is established.
Proposals for the further development of retail trade turnover of CJSC “Vneshtorgsib - M”: improve the company’s commodity supply and increase the efficiency and use of commodity resources. To this end, the commercial service of the enterprise should significantly expand the purchase and sale of related products (for example, the sale of decorative lamps), available in sufficient quantities from manufacturers and other suppliers, and pay more attention to concluding contracts with suppliers.
The increase in commodity resources will allow for an increase in trade turnover and an increase in the labor efficiency of sales workers.
For this purpose, it is advisable to hire people part-time, install modern cash registers, combine professions and positions, work to prevent absenteeism and reduce loss of working time due to illness and other reasons.
Improving the use of the material and technical base of the enterprise.
To this end, establish the optimal mode of operation of the enterprise, implement progressive forms of trade, reduce inventory and inspections to a minimum, the economic service of the enterprise develop forecasts for the development of retail trade turnover for the coming period and conduct operational monitoring of the progress of the forecasts;
This will allow the management of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M and its services to quickly resolve issues of ensuring and efficient use of all types of resources, to achieve rhythmic and uniform development of retail trade turnover by periods of the year and by departments of the enterprise.
Necessary:
· improve the system of material incentives for the labor of the company’s employees (increasing the number of goods sold, serving the largest number of customers, receiving income from the sale of goods, etc.);
· introduce a journal-order form of accounting at the enterprise, more quickly present data on retail sales for making management decisions;
· computerize management accounting at the enterprise, use a computer reference system for consultations, clarification, etc.
Thus, due to the developed management decision, the enterprise can actually achieve its goals and increase the overall efficiency indicator and reduce production costs.
So, improving the management decision-making process and, accordingly, increasing the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of a scientific approach, models and methods of decision-making.
Conclusion
Improving the management decision-making process and, accordingly, increasing the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of a scientific approach, models and methods of decision-making. The goals set in the introduction, in my opinion, are revealed in the work. To summarize, some conclusions can be noted.
A decision is a choice of an alternative. The need for decision making is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity, arises at all stages of the management process and forms part of any management function.
Decision-making (managerial) in organizations has a number of differences from the choice of an individual, since it is not an individual, but a group process.
The nature of the decisions made is greatly influenced by the degree of completeness and reliable information available to the manager. Depending on this, decisions can be made under conditions of certainty (deterministic decisions) and risk or uncertainty (probabilistic decisions).
The complex nature of the problems of modern management requires a comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of them, i.e. participation of a group of managers and specialists, which leads to the expansion of collegial forms of decision-making.
Decision making is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that has a certain duration and structure. The decision-making process is a cyclical sequence of actions of a management subject aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, selecting the best one and its implementation.
Decision making is the most important thing in a manager's job. Therefore, one must learn to make decisions during the learning process, and not when the fate of the enterprise already depends on the manager. Moreover, now you can learn not only from your own mistakes, but also from the experience of other people and organizations.
So, we have examined and characterized the decision-making process from a technological point of view. Let's summarize the results of the work:
1. A decision is a choice of an alternative, a conscious choice from available options for a course of action.
2. A decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the appearance of this product.
3. The choice of solution should be based on the characteristics of the problem situation.
4. Depending on the approach to the decision-making process, technologies for this process are distinguished. However, they all distinguish three main stages: identifying the problem, developing a solution, and executing the solution.
5. All responsibility for the decision made rests with the leader, manager. Currently, there are no practical, constructive methods or technologies for making group decisions or decisions in the face of opposition with many active participants. Many relatively simpler problems of individual decision-making are far from being satisfactorily solved. Thus, the processes occurring in the administrative apparatus are much more complex than those for which analytical approaches have already been developed. Thus, our hypothesis was confirmed. However, considering the problems that have arisen in a strict logical sequence makes it possible to fruitfully combine formal and heuristic methods in the process of preparing and making a decision and achieving higher quality.
6. The work of the consultant-analyst plays a huge role and is of primary importance. Reality requires him to combine many qualities: the art of analyzing situations, deep professional knowledge, techniques and methods of decision-making, the ability to present recommendations, professional skills in working with people.
In our opinion, in the coming decades, many so-called. behavioral sciences will certainly take a step forward. Then it will be possible to build much more effective decision-making technologies. But now it is necessary to consider the decision-making process as a procedure, the main participants of which are the manager and analysts. It is the human aspects, not the mathematical or machine aspects, that are central to the decision-making process. It is on these aspects that future criteria for testing the practical value of technologies and decision-making methods should be based.
Proposals for the further development of retail trade turnover of CJSC “Vneshtorgsib - M”: improve the company’s commodity supply and increase the efficiency of use of commodity resources.
To this end, the commercial service of the enterprise should significantly expand the purchase and sale of related products (for example, the sale of decorative lamps), available in sufficient quantities from manufacturers and other suppliers, and pay more attention to concluding contracts with suppliers. The search for new suppliers and, as a result, an increase in the range of goods will allow Vneshtorgsib-M CJSC to reduce the influence of the seasonal factor on changes in trade turnover.
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Annex 1
Organizational structure of CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M"
To make it easier to study the material, we divide the article on management decisions into topics:
In this regard, leading domestic and foreign economists point out that one of the most important reasons for such discrepancies is differences in the efficiency of enterprise management or, in other words, in the effectiveness of management decisions developed and implemented by managers.
In general terms, the effectiveness of enterprise management is understood as the effectiveness of managing the activities of an enterprise, which is a consequence of the ability of managers to develop effective management decisions and achieve their goals.
Many economists express the opinion that management efficiency is a function of two variables: the costs of developing management decisions and maintaining the management apparatus, on the one hand, and the results of management activities, reflected in changes in the values of indicators that assess the state of the management object. The level of economic efficiency is the most important characteristic of the management system and the quality of management decisions made.
When assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, it is necessary to ensure a synthesis of economic and social aspects of management. In accordance with this, a system of criteria for assessing effectiveness should be developed.
As performance criteria, indicators such as growth in profit, production volumes and sales of products, changes in capital investments, increased turnover of working capital, increased economic profitability, reduced costs of maintaining the management apparatus, etc. can be used.
Ultimately, almost all of them lead to an increase. Quantitative changes resulting from the implementation of a management decision are called the economic effect.
The planned values of indicators of financial and economic activity at an existing enterprise or similar enterprises for newly created firms are taken as the basis for determining the economic effect.
Everyone recognizes that the process of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions is not an end in itself, but acts as a lever for using reserves to increase the efficiency of social production. Assessing the effectiveness of a management decision is a measure of the feasibility of changes in the management system of an enterprise or company and, ultimately, should determine the nature and content of specific changes in the activities of the enterprise or organization.
The economic assessment of the effectiveness of a management decision cannot be considered in isolation from the assessment of production efficiency. But direct use of production performance measurement may be insensitive to changes in management. Therefore, it is necessary to look for more specific, narrow indicators of the effectiveness of management itself.
Principles for assessing the effectiveness of developing management decisions.
It is advisable to highlight some principles for assessing management decisions. These include:
1) the complexity of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions;
2) objectivity in assessing management decisions;
3) mandatory assessment of the effectiveness of management decisions;
4) compliance of the assessment method with the nature of the management object;
5) comparability of indicators for assessing various management decisions;
6) taking into account the individual characteristics of the enterprise and the management situation when constructing a model for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions.
Analysis of the problem of assessing the economic efficiency of management decisions allows us to identify the following elements of the content of effectiveness assessments:
1) criteria (as measures of goals) for economic evaluation of efficiency;
2) effects as descriptions of the consequences obtained as a result of the implementation of management decisions.
Methods for assessing effectiveness.
Depending on the nature, content and measure of expression of changes in the activities of the enterprise, one or another method for assessing the effectiveness of a management decision is selected.
From the point of view of the role of methods in the assessment process, they are divided into:
Methods for taking into account the relationship of social and political factors with the assessment of economic efficiency;
methods for selecting criteria for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions;
methods for selecting the effects of implementing management decisions;
methods for determining criteria values;
methods for calculating effects.
Based on the nature of the work performed, assessment methods can be divided into:
methods of selection and identification in the process of developing performance assessment;
calculation methods during the assessment process;
methods of descriptions in the assessment process.
From the point of view of the role of a person in the assessment process, methods are divided into formal and informal.
Based on the accuracy of the results achieved during the assessment process, a distinction is made between exact and approximate methods.
From a cost point of view, there are methods that require a significant investment of specialist time, complex computer equipment and financial resources, and methods that do not require significant costs.
Depending on the possibility of implementation, methods can be divided into complex and simple.
The variety of methods requires the inclusion of various specialists in the assessment team and coordination of methods used at different stages of the assessment.
The specialists included in the assessment team must be professionals in their field, have appropriate education and experience in this field. By constantly working as part of a group, specialists not only hone their existing knowledge and skills, expand their practical experience, but also master new methods for assessing effectiveness. Based on the functional nature of the stages of the performance assessment process and the content of the methods used at these stages, we can conclude that the group of assessment specialists must be comprehensive. This is consistent with the complex nature of the subject matter being assessed.
It seems appropriate to have the following composition of a group of assessment specialists: economists familiar with economic and mathematical methods, lawyers, psychologists, sociologists, specialists in general and production management, specialists in the methodology of systems analysis and mathematics, programmers.
Obviously, not every enterprise or association can provide such a composition. In this case, it is advisable to entrust the assessment of management effectiveness on a contractual basis to specialized research institutes, design institutes or consulting firms specializing in this area of business.
Determining the procedure and organization for assessing the economic efficiency of management decisions requires answering the following questions:
Where is the assessment made?
when the assessment is made, what is its process;
What technical and software tools are used to evaluate effectiveness?
Accounting for management decisions
In modern economic conditions, three accounting systems operate in the information field of an organization, the purpose of which is to satisfy the information needs of users of accounting information.The following reports are generated at the output of the organization's information system:
1) for external users of accounting information;
2) for the purposes of periodic planning and control;
3) for making decisions in non-standard situations and choosing the optimal policy of the organization.
Financial accounting performs the functions of system accounting, built in accordance with the principles and norms of international standards. The task of financial accounting is to compile information that can be used by both external and internal users. At the same time, external users of accounting information can be share owners and creditors (both real and potential), suppliers, buyers, representatives of tax services, etc.
Management accounting is a logical continuation of the development of accounting, its evolution. The increasing complexity of economic relations and mechanisms of market relations, the emergence of new market instruments, methods and means of managing economic and financial activities have created a need for additional information to ensure the successful functioning of the organization in these conditions. Significant changes have occurred in technology, technology and production organization. More varieties of the product, methods of its manufacture, and options for combining them have appeared. Costs (and in many ways the results of activities) now depend not so much on the individual efforts and skills of a person, but on the technical level of production, the productivity of the machines and equipment used. The number of options for solving emerging problems has increased, and the cost of an incorrect management decision has increased. It is obvious that internal (in-plant, intra-factory, etc.) management requires a new system for collecting information for analysis, selection and justification of such decisions. There was a need to reorient the main purpose of accounting to meet internal needs. Accounting is divided into financial, tax and management. The expansion of the range of activities has created a need for additional information.
Quality of management decisions
The quality of a management decision is a set of decision parameters that satisfy a specific consumer or consumers and ensure the possibility of its implementation. Necessary for making a decision. The input of the system is characterized by the parameters of the problem that need to be solved for specific markets (consumer requirements, segmentation results, quality of the object, delivery times, prices, etc.).The output of the system is a solution, expressed quantitatively or qualitatively, having a certain degree of adequacy and probability of implementation, the degree of risk of achieving the planned result. The components of the “external environment” of the system include factors of the macro- and microenvironment of the company and region that influence the quality of the management decision.
These factors include the international, political situation in the country, economy, technical condition, socio-demographic, natural-climatic, cultural and other factors, regional infrastructure factors (market infrastructure, environmental monitoring, social infrastructure, industry, transport, communications, etc. .), factors characterizing the specific connections of the company (decision maker) with other companies, organizations, intermediaries, competitors, etc.
Feedback characterizes various information coming from consumers to the person who made the decision (to the “process”), or to the person from whom information was received to solve the problem (to the input). The receipt of feedback information can also be caused by a low-quality solution, additional demands from consumers to clarify or refine the solution, the emergence of innovations, know-how and other factors.
The management decision-making process includes the following operations: preparation for work; identifying the problem and formulating goals; search for information; its processing; identification of resource provision opportunities; ranking of goals; formulation of tasks; preparation of necessary documents; implementation of tasks. The use of a systematic approach to the process of making management decisions allows us to determine the structure of the problem, the system for solving it, the interconnections of the system components and the order of their improvement.
It is necessary to clearly formulate what should be obtained, what parameters the solution should have. The quality parameters of a management decision include:
An indicator of entropy, that is, the quantitative uncertainty of a problem. If the problem is formulated only qualitatively, without quantitative indicators, then the entropy indicator approaches zero. If all indicators of the problem are expressed quantitatively, the entropy indicator approaches one.
degree of investment risk;
the likelihood of implementing the decision in terms of quality, costs and timing;
the degree of adequacy (or degree of forecast accuracy, approximation coefficient) of a theoretical model to the actual data on the basis of which it was developed.
Risk of management decisions
(SD) is a set of knowledge and skills that allow, subject to the implementation of the budget and project schedule, to plan and implement actions to respond to negative or positive events that, with some degree of probability, may occur during the implementation of the project.Based on the definition of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK PMI), management consists of four main components: identifying risks, assessing risks, developing risk responses, and controlling risks. Risk identification is a process that is carried out first and then accompanies project management until its very end. To implement it, PMBOK and other project management manuals recommend using a variety of group work methods (brainstorming, nominal group, Delphi), as well as analysis of similar projects from similar areas with the participation of external or internal company experts. However, the logic of integrated project management teaches us that to identify risks we need to use mechanisms related to other areas of PM. Such a mechanism is a project work breakdown structure (WBS), or WBS. Formally, it relates to managing the scope and boundaries of a project, but in fact it is actively used in almost all other areas of PM knowledge and has become a kind of “calling card” of PM methodology. Indeed, in what even more logical way can one determine with maximum accuracy all possible project activities associated with the occurrence of certain risk events? As you know, at the end of project planning, all project work defined using the WBS must describe 95% of the scope and scope of the project. This gives us a chance to identify all potential “risk points” with a high degree of probability. However, a WBS is not just a diagram on paper. This is a virtual representation of a series of meetings involving project stakeholders who have some form of expert knowledge about the scope and scope of the project. Thus, in the process of discussing and developing a WBS, we can successfully obtain a large amount of expertly confirmed information regarding project risks. Finally, the very logical structure of the WBS gives us the opportunity to organize and gradually review all the components of the project for the potential risks it contains.
Requirements for management decisions
What are the requirements to ensure a high quality solution? We can name the following characteristics: proactive development of a solution, targeted programming, complexity of content, validity of planned measures, legality, logic, clarity of presentation, flexibility of requirements for performers, timely implementation of the solution, efficiency of achieving the result. All of them are closely interconnected, and therefore a violation of any of them leads to a sharp decrease in the quality of the solution and serious difficulties in achieving the goal.Proactive solution development. The expression “to lead means to foresee” means the ability to begin developing decisions in advance, when there is time to think deeply about them and prepare sufficient means for implementation. Any successful decision made quickly is always the fruit of preliminary deliberation and thorough preparation.
Unfortunately, foresight and foresight are not always demonstrated in our country. Most often, decisions are delayed and are made in the context of events that have already begun, leaving no time for reflection and preparation for implementation. Therefore, a vital and priority management principle should be the rule to act proactively based on forecasting the development of the situation and continuous planning of actions taken, avoiding the aggravation of existing problems.
Being late in developing a solution leads to the fact that a well-founded program of action is not available at the right time, so you have to act in the wrong way.
It's important to start working on big decisions early. This requires mandatory foresight, anticipation of events, so that the development of the situation does not get out of control and does not take you by surprise. The work should be organized in such a way that the thinking and preparation of the decision takes place in advance, the decision is made on the eve of the events, and the implementation begins immediately with the onset of the events.
Target programming of solutions. The high quality of a decision is determined by the clarity of its content, when the goal is precisely defined, the available means are planned for effective use, and a sequence of actions taken to achieve it is drawn up. In management, the most complete expression of a decision is a target program that well guides performers in upcoming activities.
One of the fundamental vices of Soviet-era management was a formal, ostentatious attitude to the preparation of important decisions. The option for achieving the goal was usually not thought out to the end, until there was a clear definition of the sequence and relationship of the actions taken, the final results and their possible consequences. Insufficient attention was paid to taking into account the effects of unfavorable conditions, providing for additional costs and planning the necessary measures to overcome them.
Programming management decisions overcomes this dispersion of forces and actions of performers, focuses attention on the mechanism for achieving the common final result, the program goal - ensuring a high population.
Complexity of the content of the decision. A characteristic feature of many decisions made in management practice is the fragmentation of the planned activities and the unrelatedness of the actions taken. When working on major decisions, a systematic approach is required, considering the solution as a system, i.e. a set of interconnected elements that form a single whole.
In any system, close connections develop between its constituent elements, which give rise to additional system-wide properties. The systematic nature of the content of the decision gives rise to properties that significantly increase its reliability, as well as the timeliness and efficiency of the implementation of the plan.
Thus, to achieve the goal of ensuring a high quality of life for the population, there are five subgoals (subprograms) that determine the strategic directions of the activities of state and municipal bodies:
Economic direction: production, logistics, financial and other activities, and most importantly - ensuring the solvency of the population as a domestic investor;
social direction: environmental and production and welfare measures, as well as decent wages, provision of social guarantees, etc.;
political and managerial direction: political and organizational measures, rationalization of management processes, training and selection of professionally trained managers, etc.;
legal direction: providing legal guarantees to citizens;
intellectual direction: development of science, informational, explanatory, educational, scientific and methodological activities, etc.
Moreover, each subprogram contains a set of tasks and a system of practical measures to achieve the overall goal. In turn, the activities in the program are divided into sequential, interconnected and diverse operations and actions, expressed in specific tasks to specific performers (having various professions and specialties) with assigned responsibilities, rights, powers and resources (organizational, personnel, logistical and financial).
Thus, the complex content of the decision is not just a set of multidirectional activities, but their integral unity and interaction with the selection of leading ones and the ranking of others. In production, for example, a comprehensive solution covers the work of not only the main workshops, but also supporting departments. Thus, for a reliable solution to the problem of public transport, one should take care not only of increasing the rolling stock, but also of the condition of the repair base and traffic routes, of the social problems of the enterprise related to the daily concerns of workers, of the training of highly qualified personnel, etc.
Management decisions, due to their high complexity and responsibility, versatility of content and high cost of implementation, require preliminary strength testing using justification procedures.
Validity of decisions. Justification of a decision involves defining and indicating that it is based on true knowledge of urgent (and not far-fetched) needs, is based on necessary and sufficient means, takes into account the current conditions of the situation and the possible dynamics of their changes, provides for the use of the best option of action, and has the necessary reserves. It ensures that it is useful, feasible and effective in getting the desired result. Thus, the justification of the decision guarantees its actual necessity and feasibility, and prevents its cancellation, non-fulfillment or incomplete implementation.
Deep validity of decisions also implies the provision of the necessary risk when the result is not guaranteed. True, any risk must be well calculated and provided with the necessary reserves in advance. The risk analysis methodology makes it possible, when making decisions, to consider decision options taking into account their benefits, effectiveness, implementation costs, and degree of risk.
Logical content of decisions. The logical content of the decision presupposes its internal and external interconnection, consistency with previously made decisions along the vertical and horizontal management.
Internal coherence means that all points of the decision are related to each other, follow from each other, and do not contradict each other. This ensures compliance with the proportions of the content of the decision, when all its components correspond to each other in their weight and target orientation. The means provided for in the solution must fully correspond to the cost of the problem being solved and the conditions of the existing situation, and the methods and sequence of actions used must be proportionate to meeting this need.
External coherence means that the solution is consistent with the previous ones and does not contradict them. If such a contradiction exists, it must be specified, indicating those previously made decisions that must be cancelled.
Unfortunately, many contradictions are inherent even in federal laws, when many of them do not correspond to each other. Moreover, one law contains mutually exclusive theses. The consequences of such a marriage result in confusion and arbitrariness in the interpretation of laws.
Clarity of expression in decisions. Closely related to the logic of the decision is the clarity of its presentation, which makes it possible to avoid discrepancies and different interpretations of the same points.
Vague formulations and reticence indicate either the ill-conceived decision or the incompetence of the person who made it. It cannot be allowed that, according to existing regulations, the same human actions can be interpreted in completely different ways.
It is especially important to use precise and unambiguous concepts, give clear definitions to complex concepts and establish semantic connections between words, avoid homonyms if possible or stipulate their understanding, since they have the same spelling, but differ greatly in meaning, which can mislead performers.
Flexibility of requirements for performers. The solution presupposes elasticity of content, an optimal combination of rigidity and flexibility to achieve the goal, providing performers, within certain limits, with the necessary scope for initiative and independence in the face of current changes in the situation, the ability to adjust some aspects of the decision while strictly observing the timeliness and accuracy of its implementation. The mere rigidity of the decision means the requirement for performers to act only in one way and in no other way, which completely ties their hands and does not provide the opportunity for the manifestation of creative initiative and resourcefulness. Only the goal contained in the decision should be rigid (if changes are made to the goal, then the decision itself changes), but the process of achieving the goal should be flexible enough, taking into account changes in the situation, specific possibilities for using the means and the potential of the performers.
Timely implementation of decisions. The timely implementation of a decision means the exact choice of the moment of its adoption and the start of implementation - without delays or getting ahead of ourselves.
Looking ahead makes the implementation of a decision premature and therefore impracticable when the need for its implementation has not yet arisen and the appropriate conditions have not yet matured. Late implementation of a decision makes it erroneous, and therefore unnecessary, no longer relevant, and even harmful.
The most complete compliance with the requirements for management decisions leads them to a high level of socio-economic efficiency.
Efficiency of decisions. The effectiveness of a decision means choosing an option that leads to reliable, timely and complete achievement of the intended result at lower costs or to obtaining the maximum result at a given cost. Here, the ratio of the intended useful result and the planned costs, the completeness of return from the resources used, the high degree of use of the capabilities of the means to obtain the intended result with a minimum of negative consequences that reduce its value are taken into account.
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