Monitoring, diagnostics and management of the residual life of a complex of high-voltage power equipment. Machinery and equipment resource management system NPP equipment resource management

The safety of nuclear power plants is largely determined by the reliable operation of the steam generation system and the external cooling system, consisting of steam turbine condensers and a regeneration system.

The safe operation of NPP power units and measures to extend the service life are impossible without careful observance of the rules and regulations for operation and maintenance, analysis of the effectiveness of certain control actions, development of methods for probabilistic forecasting of equipment life characteristics, as well as the introduction of modern procedures for processing monitoring data. Reviews by I.A. Tutnova, V.I. Baranenko, A.I. Arzhaeva, S.V. Evropina, works by A.F. Getman, V.P. Gorbatykh, N.B. Trunova, A.A. Tutnova and others.

But in addition to the safety condition, the operation of the power unit is also subject to the condition of economic efficiency of operation. These problems are considered and developed in the works of A.N. Karkhova, O.D. Kazachkovsky and others. The efficiency of electricity production largely depends on the downtime of the unit associated with preventive maintenance or elimination of the causes of NPP equipment failures. The classification of equipment important from the point of view of the impact on safety, made in different countries developing nuclear power, outlined the main types of equipment that should be considered when deciding to extend the service life. These issues are substantively considered in the documents of the IAEA, in the works of E.M. Sigala, V.A. Ostreikovskiy and others. The influence of the selected equipment on the power supply unit factor is due to downtime due to the unreliability of this equipment. One of the main tasks in this regard is to predict the reliability characteristics of equipment and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures based on models of aging processes that limit its resource. In a large number of works devoted to the development of theoretical models of these processes, the presented models are quite complex and contain a large amount of specific data, which makes it difficult to use such models in resource prediction.

Currently, the problem of optimizing the service life of a power unit is topical, taking into account the effects of equipment metal aging and the cost of modernization measures. A feature of the task of optimizing the service life of an EB is that it is a task of individual forecasting, therefore, it is required to organize the collection and processing of initial information, justify the choice of an economic criterion, and formulate an optimization principle taking into account the economic situation during the operation of a particular EB.

Secondary circuit equipment in this regard plays a special role, because. it is subject to different aging processes, works in different conditions, the assigned resource, as a rule, is commensurate with the resource of the block, the replacement has a rather high cost.

The aging processes of secondary circuit equipment materials, as well as NPP equipment in general, are objective, and for timely effective resource management, it is necessary to assess the technical condition of equipment during operation and widely use diagnostic and non-destructive testing programs. These data must be processed in a timely and high-quality manner and used in predicting the resource characteristics of equipment.

Therefore, the need to develop approaches, methods and algorithms for setting and solving the problem of optimizing the EB service life, developing methods for predicting the resource, taking into account various factors, the nature of the aging process and its probabilistic nature, as well as applying computational procedures that allow obtaining effective estimates, determine the relevance of the dissertation work.

The conditions laid down in the project and determining the technical, economic and temporal aspects of the design period may differ significantly from the real ones during operation. Moreover, they can be improved by mitigating damaging factors as a result of maintenance and modernization and, therefore, manage the service life.

AC (Ageing Management Program - AMP) Life Management Program (AMP) concept is based on the concept of maintaining design indicators and functions important to safety through an interconnected system of measures for maintenance and diagnostic maintenance, timely repair and modernization. Modernization should also include the introduction of new technologies for operation and repair, including those for managing nuclear power plants, which make it possible to reduce the rate of degradation of the properties and parameters of equipment, engineering systems of specific units.

Active work on the topic of life extension, (PSS) with a focus on the mechanisms of aging and measures to reduce their impact has led to the emergence of the term “aging management”, which emphasizes the controllability of the process and the possibility of active influence< со стороны эксплуатирующей организации.

Lifetime management (LMS) for nuclear power plants is an integrated practice for ensuring socio-economic efficiency and safe operation, including aging management programs.

From an economic point of view, CSS is one of the essential parts of the overall methodology and practice of cost optimization in order to achieve maximum profit while maintaining competitiveness in the market of electricity producers and ensuring safety. From a technical point of view, the CSS is a set of measures to maintain or improve the safety of nuclear power plants, ensure the operability and durability of the main elements (systems) and the unit as a whole, while minimizing operating costs. Conditions for the preparation and implementation of life cycle management should be created at all stages of the life cycle of a power unit.

A brief analysis of the programs of the IAEA Member States and a general methodology for solving the problem of life extension (LAT) are given in the IAEA report "Nuclear Plant Aging and Life Extension". All programs are classified as follows:

Estimating the life of equipment that cannot be replaced;

Service life extensions or planned replacements of major components that are economically feasible;

Planning for overhaul and replacement of equipment in order to ensure the safety and reliability of operation.

The main theoretical developments in this area should be:

Reliability assessment methods;

Safety assessment methods;

Methods for assessing economic efficiency;

Methods for predicting aging as a function of time.

The object of study is the equipment of the second circuit of the NPP. The subject of the study is the assessment of resource characteristics of equipment.

The purpose and objectives of the study are to develop theoretical foundations and applied models for assessing, predicting and managing the service life of NPP secondary circuit equipment based on statistical processing of data on operation and taking into account the mechanisms of aging processes. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved: 1. Data analysis and systematization operation from the point of view of the impact of physical processes on the aging processes of materials of the secondary circuit equipment and the rationale for the use of physical and statistical models for individual assessment, prediction and management of the service life of the equipment of the second circuit of NPP.

2. Development of methods for predicting the resource characteristics of secondary circuit equipment under conditions of damage accumulation from the action of various material aging processes, taking into account their probabilistic nature.

3. Development of methods and algorithms for optimizing the service life of a power unit based on an economic criterion that takes into account the diversity of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit's equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation.

4. Development of methods for solving the problem of reaching the limit state by elements of NPP equipment.

5. Optimization of volumes and frequency of monitoring the technical condition of NPP secondary circuit equipment subject to erosion-corrosion wear.

6. Development of a method for predicting the intensity of the FCI process of NPP equipment elements made of pearlitic steels based on the theory of neural networks.

Research methods. The work is based on the use and development of methods for the safe operation of nuclear power plants, reliability theory, probability theory and mathematical statistics, using which the following were carried out:

Analysis of operating factors limiting the service life of NPP equipment;

Analysis of statistical data on the operability of NPP equipment;

Modeling of aging processes based on the physics of processes, experimental data and periodic monitoring data.

The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that, in contrast to existing approaches to determining the service life of a power unit, the proposed concept uses the formulation of the problem taking into account the effects of aging of NPP equipment, and also that methods have been developed for predicting the resource characteristics of equipment using models of physical aging processes , more information on operating parameters and measures taken to manage the service life of secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants. When developing methods for assessing and predicting resource characteristics, a number of new theoretical results were obtained: the significance of the factors that determine the intensity of aging processes in the material, which is necessary to manage the resource of specific NPP equipment;

A probabilistic model for predicting the resource of heat exchange tubes of a steam generator based on the methods of linear and nonlinear summation of damages, taking into account the operating parameters and the type of the main aging process; asymptotic methods for solving the problem of reaching the limit state by equipment elements: in the model of drop impact erosion under conditions of two-phase coolant flows, in methods of damage summation in the problem of estimating the life of the SG HOT;

A method for predicting the resource of a steam generator tube based on linear stochastic Kalman filtering, which allows taking into account a large amount of operational data, control data and research results based on mathematical models of damage processes and ongoing preventive measures, which, in contrast to known methods, leads to an increase in the reliability of the forecast and the possibility to qualitatively manage the tubular resource on the basis of the formulated principle of optimal control;

A method for optimizing the volumes and frequency of control of the thickness of NPP equipment elements subject to erosion-corrosion wear, based on the proposed method for processing control data and determining the elements belonging to the EQI risk group, calculating the allowable wall thicknesses and ranking the elements according to the degree of wear and EQI rate, based on the first analysis of a large number of measurements at the Kola, Kalinin, Balakovo, Novovoronezh, Smolensk NPPs;

A neural network model for assessing and predicting the performance of equipment elements subject to erosion-corrosion wear, based on the observed parameters that determine the intensity of the ECI process, and control data, which, unlike existing statistical and empirical models, allows estimating the mutual influence of all factors, highlighting the essential properties of incoming information and, ultimately, to improve the accuracy of the forecast without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the ECI process; a method for optimizing the life of a power unit based on an economic criterion that takes into account the diversity of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit's equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation.

The reliability of scientific provisions is confirmed by a rigorous substantiation of models describing the processes of operability of the secondary circuit equipment with the correct formulation of the definitions of the limit states of the equipment, methods and provisions, as well as the correspondence of a number of results to operational data. Provisions submitted for defense 1. Significance of factors influencing the aging processes of metals and necessary for individual application of physical and statistical models for assessing and managing the service life of secondary circuit equipment.

2. Physico-statistical models for assessing, predicting and managing the life of equipment in the secondary circuit of NPPs, based on the method of summing damage caused by various aging processes, for carrying out variational calculations and justifying the values ​​of parameters that make it possible to manage the equipment life.

3. Asymptotic methods for solving problems of estimating the resource characteristics of NPP equipment elements based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and their application to damage accumulated in the equipment material under conditions of drop impact erosion of pipeline bends with a two-phase coolant and under stress corrosion cracking of steam generator heat exchange tubes .

4. Method for predicting the resource of tubulars of steam generators of nuclear power plants based on the theory of stochastic filtration.

5. Method for optimizing the volumes and frequency of thickness measurement of NPP equipment elements, taking into account their categorization in terms of FAC speed.

6. Neural network model of the generalized consideration of operating factors for predicting the FAC rate in the elements of equipment of nuclear power plants.

7. Method of optimal management of the service life of a power unit, taking into account the difference in costs and results.

The practical value of the results of the work lies in the fact that, on the basis of the above theoretical provisions and methods, algorithms and engineering methods have been developed that make it possible to justify the values ​​of technological parameters for managing the resource of equipment. The calculations carried out according to the developed methods made it possible to obtain an assessment of the resource indicators of the secondary circuit equipment of NPPs with VVER-1000, VVER-440 and RBMK-1000 reactors at the Kola, Smolensk, Kalinin, Balakovo NPPs and develop recommendations for their management.

The area of ​​application of the results is the resource management of SG tubes, heat-exchange condenser tubes, pipeline elements made of pearlitic steels.

Approbation and implementation of results

The work was carried out within the framework of the themes of the Energoatom concern

Diagnostics, equipment resource, steam generators, quality. Feasibility study for the replacement of copper-containing equipment of the KPT for the head unit of VVER-1000 (power unit No. 3 of BlokNPP),

Fundamental problems of decommissioning of nuclear power plants,

Refinement of the "Norms for the permissible thickness of pipeline elements made of carbon steel AS" RD EO 0571-2006 "and" Development of a guidance document for assessing the technical condition of equipment elements and pipelines subject to erosion-corrosion wear ";

A comprehensive program of measures to prevent damage and improve the operational erosion and corrosion resistance of NPP pipelines. No. NPP PRG-550 K07 of Energoatom Concern on the topic "Computational and experimental justification of the volumes and frequency of control of erosion and corrosion wear of pipelines of NPP power units with VVER:1000 reactor plant",

Processing and analysis of the results of thickness measurement of pipeline elements of the 1-3 units of the Smolensk NPP.

The materials of the dissertation were reported and discussed at the following international and all-Russian conferences: 1. System problems of reliability, mathematical modeling and information technology, Moscow-Sochi, 1997, 1998.

2. NPP safety and personnel training, Obninsk, 1998,1999,2001,

3. 7th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Tokyo, Japan, April 1923, 1999 ICONE-1.

4. Control and diagnostics of pipelines, Moscow, 2001.

5. PSAM 7 ESREL 04 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Berlin, 2004.

6. Mathematical ideas P. JI. Chebyshev and their application to modern problems of natural science, Obninsk, 2006.

7. Safety, efficiency and economics of nuclear energy, Moscow,

8. MMR 2007 International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability. Glasgow, Great Britain, 2007.

9. Problems of materials science in the design, manufacture and operation of equipment, St. Petersburg, 2008. Publications. 57 scientific papers were published on the topic of the dissertation, including 20 articles in scientific and technical journals, 15 articles in collections, 22 in conference proceedings.

The thesis raises methodological issues of predicting the resource of NPP secondary circuit equipment, develops methods based on the physical-statistical approach, and proposes effective computational procedures for calculating resource characteristics.

Major Publications

1. Gulina O. M., Ostreykovskiy V. A. Analytical dependencies for assessing reliability, taking into account the correlation between the load and the bearing capacity of the object// Reliability and quality control. - 1981. - No. 2.-p. 36-41.

2. Gulina O.M., Ostreykovsky V.A., Salnikov H.JI. Generalization of the models "parameter-tolerance field" and "load-bearing capacity" in assessing the reliability of objects//Reliability and quality control.-1982.-№2.-p. 10-14.

3. Gulina O. M., Salnikov N. JI. Building a model for predicting the resource of a pipeline in case of erosion damage. Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. - 1995. - No. Z.-s. 40-46.

4. Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Diffusion model for probabilistic forecasting of the resource of nuclear power equipment//Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. - 1995. - No. 1. - p. 48-51.

5. Gulina O. M., Salnikov N. JI. Model for estimating the resource of SG tubes under conditions of corrosion cracking// Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. - 1996. - No. 1. - p. 16-19.

6. Egishyants S. A., Gulina O. M., Konovalov E. N. Estimation of resource distribution in case of damage summation. Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. 1997.-No. 1.- p.18-21.

7. Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Probabilistic forecasting of the resource of pipelines and pressure vessels AS // Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. -1998. -No. 1.-C.4-11.

8. Filimonov E.V., Gulina O.M. A generalized integral model for predicting the reliability of NPP pipelines under fatigue loading. Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. - 1998. - No. Z.-s.Z-l 1.

9. Gulina O.M. Estimation and forecasting of NPP equipment resource. / Scientific research in the field of nuclear energy in technical universities of Russia: collection of scientific papers - M .: MPEI, 1999.-S.201-204.

Yu.Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Calculation of resource characteristics of equipment under conditions of non-linear effects of degradation processes//Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. -1999. -#4. -p.11-15.

11. V. A. Andreev, O. M. Gulna. A fast method for predicting the growth of cracks in large-diameter pipelines//Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear Energy. - 2000. - No. 3. - p. 14-18.

12. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Chepurko V.A. Development of a criterion for optimizing the service life of a power unit // Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. -2001. -#2. -p.10-14.

13. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Korniets* T.P. Multicriteria problem of optimizing the service life of an ACS power unit/Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. - 2002.-№4.-p. 12-15.

14. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Mikhaltsov A.V., Tsykunova S.Yu. The problem of assessing the service life of NPP equipment under aging conditions // Nuclear measurement and information technologies. - 2004. - No. 1. - p.62-66.

15. Gulina O.M., Kornienko K.A., Pavlova M.N. Analysis of contamination of the SG tubular and assessment of the interwash period by diffusion processes // Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear energy. -2006. -№1.-s. 12-18.

16. Gulina O.M., Kornienko K.A., Polityukov V.P., Frolov S.A. Application of the stochastic Kalman filtering method for predicting the resource characteristics of a nuclear power plant steam generator// Atomic Energy. - 2006.-t.101 (4).- p.313-316.

17. Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Methods for predicting the resource of heat exchange equipment AS// Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear Energy. - 2007. - No. 3, issue 1. - p. 23-29.

18. Baranenko V.I., Gulina O.M., Dokukin D.A. Methodological basis for predicting erosion-corrosion wear of NPP equipment using neural network modeling // Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear Energy. - 2008. - No. 1. - p.Z-8.

19. Gulina O.M., Pavlova M.N., Polityukov V.P., Salnikov H.JI. Optimal control of the resource of the NPP steam generator// Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear Energy. - 2008. - No. 4. - With. 25-30.

20. A. V. Igitov, O. M. Gulina, and H. J. Salnikov, Level optimization problem for detecting discord in an observed random process, Izvestiya vuzov. Nuclear Energy, - 2009-№1.- p. 125-129.

21. Baranenko V.I., Yanchenko Yu.A., Gulina O.M., Tarasov A.V., Tarasova O.S. Operational control of pipelines subject to erosive-corrosive wear// Thermal power engineering.-2009.-№5.-p.20-27.

6.5 Conclusions on Section 6

1. To assess the frequency of control, models for predicting the development of the ECI process are needed. Methods for predicting the intensity of the ECI process can be classified as follows:

Methods using analytical models;

Methods using empirical models;

Methods of forecasting with the help of artificial intelligence.

2. Analytical models based on a theoretical description of the physical processes - individual ECI mechanisms - can only provide a qualitative analysis due to the fact that the effect on the overall wear process is determined by many factors: the geometry of the equipment element, the chemical composition of the metal, the type of coolant and operating parameters.

3. Statistical models allow assessing the general state of the system I f or individual groups of pipeline elements at the moment. Statistical models are based on operational control data. Statistical analysis methods are used to quickly respond to the current situation: identifying elements subject to ECI, estimating the maximum and average speed of ECI, etc. - on the basis of which it is possible to estimate the volume and approximate date of the next control.

4. Empirical models are built on the basis of operational control data and laboratory research results: statistical, physicochemical and neural network models. In order to predict the ECI of the equipment of a specific block, it is necessary to calibrate the empirical model using the field control data of this block. The model obtained as a result of calibration cannot be applied to another block without appropriate adaptation.

5. A large number of parameters that determine the intensity of the ECI process affect each other in a complex way. The use of ANN for solving the problem of FEC forecasting makes it possible to evaluate the mutual influence of all factors, highlight the essential properties of the incoming information and, ultimately, improve the accuracy of the forecast without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the FEC process. This makes it possible to substantiate the neural network approach to determining the intensity of the FAC process in the equipment of the NPP condensate-feed duct.

6. An overview of methods for training neural networks is given and an optimal combination of approaches to the creation and training of an artificial neural network that solves the problem of predicting the FAC intensity in NPP pipelines is proposed. To increase the reliability of the forecast, it is necessary to filter the data, which consists in using only information about thinning, since the FCI process is associated with wall thinning, and thickenings are due to the transfer of corrosion products.

7. The study was carried out on the basis of a simplified artificial neural network that solves the problem of predicting the thinning of the wall of the straight section of the pipeline with a single-phase medium of the CPT of NPP with VVER. The simplified network is trained using the elastic backpropagation algorithm. The area of ​​correct forecasting is determined on the time interval up to 4 years.

8. To optimize the solution of the problem of predicting the FAC rate using the NN, an algorithm is proposed that includes

Performing cluster analysis for the analyzed situations in order to divide them into clusters of situations with similar properties, while the accuracy can be improved by taking into account local and unique dependencies and factors for each cluster. I

Construction for each class of the input set of NN trained using the backpropagation algorithm, which will calculate the thinning of the pipeline wall for the predicted period.

9. The proposed algorithm is implemented using a complex of neural networks

Replicative NS;

Self-organizing map of Kohonnen;

NS backpropagation. t

CONCLUSION

The main theoretical and practical results obtained in the work are as follows.

1. Based on the analysis and systematization of operation data, the features of the impact of physical processes on the aging processes of metals of the secondary circuit equipment, the need to develop and apply physical and statistical models for assessing, predicting and managing the service life of NPP equipment is substantiated. The analysis showed the decisive influence of the presence of copper in the circuit on the intensity of the aging processes of the metal of the equipment of the second circuit of the NPP. An individual approach to assessing the current state of equipment and developing predictive models with the maximum use of available information: data on damage and its causes, factors that intensify damage processes, data from periodic monitoring of the technical condition, chemistry parameters, as well as measures that contribute to mitigating operating conditions and reducing intensity of damage processes, - determines the methods for calculating the resource characteristics of equipment.

2. The mutual influence of the equipment of the condensate-feeding and steam paths, united by a water circuit, on the technical condition of each other, especially on the technical condition and efficiency of the SG operation, is shown. The main aging processes typical for the metal of the secondary circuit equipment, as well as factors affecting the service life of condenser tubes, HDPE and HPH, pipelines and heat exchange tubes of SG are considered. Measures are noted to reduce the intensity of damage processes.

3. Optimization of the service life of a power unit is carried out on the basis of an economic criterion that takes into account the diversity of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit's equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation - net present value (NPV). The criterion for optimizing the service life is the maximum NPV.

The structure of the payment flow is obtained using the developed Markov model of exploitation. The proposed model for calculating the cost of operation takes into account the loss associated with downtime, the cost of electricity produced, the cost of replacements, the cost of restoration work, the cost of modernization measures, etc.

4. Methods have been developed and studied for predicting the service life characteristics of equipment based on the accumulation of damage from the action of various aging processes of the material of the equipment of the secondary circuit of NPP, taking into account their probabilistic nature. To assess the performance of equipment, a stochastic measure of damage is introduced based on the accumulation of damage in the material from the action of certain aging processes. The resource is defined as the moment when the random process of damage accumulation exceeds the set level.

5. The probabilistic characteristics of the resource are obtained by the methods of linear and nonlinear summation of damages - for the processes of drop impact erosion in a two-phase flow and stress corrosion cracking of SG heat exchange tubes - at various concentrations of damaging factors and are calculated on the basis of asymptotic approximations of probability theory and mathematical statistics.

6. For the process of drop-impact erosion, which is typical for bends of steam pipelines, steam turbine blades, inlet sections of PSTE in HPH, etc., the mechanism of impact of a drop on a solid surface is taken as a basis, taking into account the distribution of normal velocities, drop sizes, and also such parameters such as steam humidity, flow rate, impact spot radius, temperature, pressure, liquid and steam density, liquid sound velocity, material parameters.

For SG heat exchange tubes, the damage process is based on the process of stress corrosion cracking, the intensity of which significantly depends on the concentrations of corrosion activators, the presence of deposits on the heat exchange surface, and copper concentrations in the deposits, which makes it possible to control the aging process of the SG HOT by substantiating the values ​​of the corresponding model parameters.

7. An approach has been proposed and substantiated that uses stochastic linear filtering to take into account heterogeneous information about an object when predicting its resource, as well as to take into account measures taken or planned to reduce the intensity of aging processes. The Kalman stochastic filtering method is adapted to predict the resource characteristics of SG heat exchange tubes. Smoothing filter and predictor algorithms have been developed. Additional information is used in the form of periodic inspection data, the location of the tube in the assembly, wall thickness measurement errors, etc. Based on the requirements for the pace of the aging process, it is possible to evaluate the optimal period or the optimal follow-up plan. The principle of the optimal algorithm for managing the HOT SG resource is formulated.

8. A systematic review of models for predicting FEC in equipment elements is given. Procedures have been developed for processing thickness measurement data on NPP secondary circuit equipment elements to optimize the volumes and frequency of control. Based on the analysis of a large amount of monitoring data for NPPs with VVER-1000, RBMK-1000, VVER-440 reactors - KlnNPP, BlkNPP, NVNPP, KolNPP,

SAES - developed methods and algorithms for processing thickness measurement data, requirements for the type and quality of information provided for calculations, introduced the concept of a category to designate a risk group for intense thinning. It is proposed to include in the control plan elements, the residual life of which is approaching the date of the next outage.

9. The use of neural network modeling for solving the problem of predicting the FAC is justified, which makes it possible to evaluate the mutual influence of all influencing factors, to highlight the essential properties of incoming operational information without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the FAC process. On the example of studying a simplified network for predicting the thinning of the wall of the straight section of the pipeline of the main condensate of a NPP with VVER, trained using the elastic backpropagation algorithm, the correctness of the forecast is shown over a time interval of up to 4 years.

10. To optimize the solution of the problem of predicting the ECI speed using a neural network, an algorithm is proposed that includes

Filtering data for training;

- "identifying" the characteristic features of the input set and reducing the number of input factors on its basis;

Performing cluster analysis for analyzed situations;

Building for each class of a neural network trained using the backpropagation algorithm.

The proposed algorithm is implemented using a set of neural networks: replicative NN; self-organizing map of Kohonnen; NS backpropagation.

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