home Success stories War in Syria Qatari gas. DWN: The war in Syria is not against IS, but for supremacy in the oil and gas market

War in Syria Qatari gas. DWN: The war in Syria is not against IS, but for supremacy in the oil and gas market

A new economic, and possibly military-political union in the Middle East (in the photo are the presidents of Russia and Turkey - Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan). Photo from the official website of the President of the Russian Federation

Military expert, Doctor of Military Sciences Vladimir Popov, in an article published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta (see) entitled “Russia is losing control over northeast Syria,” draws attention to the fact that the formation of a Turkish-American military alliance in Syria creates good preconditions for transportation of hydrocarbons through the occupied territories from the Arabian Peninsula to Turkey and further to Europe: “This makes the Turkish Stream gas pipeline almost unnecessary, in which the Russian Federation is interested and which became one of the unspoken motives for the entry of the Russian group into Syria.”

However, the statements of a respected military expert contain both outdated data and inaccuracies that mislead the reader. Therefore, it makes sense to understand what is actually hidden behind the gas background of the Syrian conflict. Moreover, there was a direct order from the newspaper’s editor-in-chief in this regard.

Syrian transit

This is not the first time that the problem of connecting the armed conflict in Syria with Russia’s gas interests has appeared in the world press. However, it should be noted that only Qatar and Iran can supply gas to Europe through Syria. According to the popular journalistic version, the Saudis and Qataris took up arms against Assad because in 2009 he rejected the idea of such a gas pipeline from Qatar, and instead chose in 2012 to sign a memorandum of intent with Tehran on organizing the Syrian transit of Iranian gas to Europe through Iraq, bypassing Turkey - referring to a gas liquefaction plant on the Mediterranean coast.

Indeed, the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline is an unrealized gas pipeline project for the supply of natural gas, which was supposed to begin in the super-giant oil and gas field of North - South Pars in the territorial waters of Qatar, Iran and pass through the territory of Turkey, where it could connect with the Nabucco gas pipeline. (also an unrealized project) with the aim of supplying European and Turkish consumers. It was assumed that one branch of the gas pipeline would pass through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, and the other through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.

In February 2016, journalist and writer Robert Kennedy Jr., by the way, the son of the deceased American Attorney General Robert Kennedy, in a voluminous analytical article for Politico magazine noted that the “undeclared war” of the United States against Assad began after the Syrian side rejected the idea of building a gas pipeline , which would link Turkey, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Qatar proposed building this gas pipeline at a cost of $10 billion in 2000. The pipeline would link Qatar to key European consumers, cement the Arabian Gulf monarchies' dominance of gas markets, and significantly enrich Qatar, a close US ally in the region.

There is a version that Syria officially refused to provide its territory for the line, justifying its refusal by the need to “protect the interests of Russia, an ally of Syria, which is a key supplier of gas to Europe.” Although in fact, as shown above, it was connected with Iran.

As a matter of fact, notes the German online publication www.heise.de, in this case Kennedy Jr. repeats the ideas of the famous journalist of Brazilian origin Pepe Escobar, who writes for various publications - from the Russian Sputnik to Asia Times Online and Al Jazeera - and in In December 2017, he noted in the article “Energy War in Syria” that the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic is explained precisely by the presence of two gas pipeline projects - with Qatar and with Iran. It was these projects that could cause damage to the Russian

projects related to gas supplies to Southern Europe. The government of Bashar al-Assad decided to accept Iranian conditions, ignoring Qatari ones. But in principle, this does not change anything in the fact that competitors may find themselves under attack Russian projects supplying the southern underbelly of Europe. And it doesn’t matter in this case whether we are talking about the Turkish Stream or its predecessor, the South Stream.

But at the same time, the importance of Syria for Russian gas interests seems to many to be exaggerated. Thus, one of the well-known specialists in the economics of the Middle East and Chatham House researcher David Butter, in an article for the Carnegie Center (Russia's Syria Interventionis Not All About Gas), published on November 19, 2015, indicates that the idea of the importance of Syria for the Russian gas exports (and the allegedly related Russian participation in the armed conflict) is based on three hypothetical scenarios: the laying of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey and further to Europe through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria; a gas pipeline from Iran through Iraq, Syria and beyond; the opening and development of new gas fields in Syrian territorial waters in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Qatari scenario—Qatar's possible participation in supplies via the Nabucco gas pipeline—was discussed back in 2009–2010, notes Butter. But such grandiose plans rarely go beyond declarations. It was alleged that the gas pipeline project from Qatar to Turkey did not take place because it was rejected by Russia's ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In fact, there are more prosaic explanations here.

In 2005, Qatar famously imposed a moratorium on new export-oriented gas projects. The country refused to expand the Dolphin gas pipeline to the UAE and Oman until its neighbors agreed to higher gas prices, and the idea of building a gas pipeline to Kuwait never materialized due to Saudi Arabia's objections. At the same time, Qatar already has the opportunity to trade liquefied natural gas with Europeans. In 2014, Europe (primarily Britain) accounted for about a quarter of Qatari LNG supplies. This gives Qatar much more room to maneuver than building a gas pipeline that would have to pass through a dozen countries to reach northern Europe. However, July 4, 2017 CEO Qatar Petroleum's Saad Sherid Al Kaabi announced an increase in LNG production from the current 77 million tons per year to 100 million tons per year by increasing production in the southern sector of the North Field. This will take five to seven years.

According to Butter, the idea that Iran's gas ambitions play a role in the Syrian crisis is even more absurd. Iran is not only largest supplier, but also the largest consumer of gas in the Middle East. Every year it supplies about 10 billion cubic meters. m of gas to Turkey, but imports about the same amount from Turkmenistan. However, we note that today the situation has changed, since the conflict with Turkmenistan over the price of gas prompted Iran to build its own gas pipeline between the southern and northern regions of the country. Even if Iran had enough gas to export to Europe, it would be enough to expand the existing gas pipeline through Turkey or begin construction of liquefied gas terminals.

However, his statements contradict the facts. In fact, in 2012, the government of Bashar al-Assad decided to sign a memorandum with Tehran, which recorded intentions to organize the Syrian transit of Iranian gas to Europe through Iraq, bypassing Turkey. This agreement also stipulated the possibility of building a gas liquefaction plant on the Mediterranean coast. In other words, Bashar al-Assad provoked a sharp reaction from the Sunni monarchies after his publicly expressed approval of the “Islamic gas pipeline”, through which gas from the Iranian part of South Pars was supposed to go through Syria to Lebanese ports and from there to Europe. The implementation of this project would strengthen the economic position of Iran, whose influence on political and economic processes in the Middle East would increase significantly. Shortly after Assad refused to support the idea of a Qatari-Turkish gas pipeline and agreed to facilitate the implementation of the Iran-Lebanon pipeline project, Israel criticized this intention. First of all, official Jerusalem expressed concern about the possible strengthening of the Shiite paramilitary rebel organizations Hezbollah and Hamas, which would be able to receive more funding for subversive activities that would be anti-Israeli in nature. On the other hand, during behind-the-scenes discussions, the possibility of running one of the gas pipeline branches from the Arabian Peninsula along the old Iran-Eilat-Ashkelon route (or to Ashkelon) was considered natural gas could be sent through Jordan).

From Butter's point of view, the third perceived threat to Russian interests is the possible discovery of gas fields in Syria itself. Today, Syria's gas reserves are sufficient to meet its own electricity production needs. And Syrian consumers would benefit from the construction of gas distribution networks that would eliminate their need to rely on heating oil and liquefied butane fuel. Stroytransgaz and others Russian companies have already built a number of gas chemical plants and local pipelines in Syria.

In the mid-2000s, when large gas fields were discovered off the coast of Israel and Cyprus, the Syrian government decided to begin exploration in its own territorial waters and at the end of 2013, involved the Russian Soyuzneftegaz, which was already working on the Syrian gas market. But in September 2015, the day before Russian bombing began, the company announced it would cease operations in Syria for security reasons. So there is no evidence yet of the presence of gas on the Syrian shelf. But even if deposits exist, the process of their development is very complex and expensive. Difficulties with the development of the Israeli Leviathan field are the best proof of this. That is, Syrian gas clearly does not threaten Gazprom’s positions in Europe.

Note that the situation has now changed and there is a significant increase in gas consumption in Europe. In 2015, Butter wrote that the network of gas pipelines connecting Europe with Russia more than covers the existing demand, and Russia also plans to launch the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will supply 55 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year to Germany. The construction of the Turkish Stream even before the incident with the Russian Su-24 was in great doubt due to weak demand and low prices for gas, says Butter. Therefore, linking the Turkish Stream with Russian interests in Syria is a clear exaggeration.

Of course, Butter notes, without understanding Russia's strategic interests in Syria, it is impossible to understand this conflict. But the assertion that Russia's intervention is dictated by gas interests is completely unfounded. Of course, we must make allowances for the fact that Butter wrote this article in 2015, when the situation on international gas markets was still due to the industrial decline in Europe and the fall in oil prices, to which the bulk of gas transactions are still tied, not quite clear.

Realities of the Turkish Stream

The analysis shows that Russia’s interests in Syria would be more likely to be threatened by Iran than by a hypothetical gas pipeline from Qatar. This is all the more important because Iran does not intend to leave Syria after the end of the fight against the Islamic State (an organization banned in Russia). On the contrary, together with Shiite paramilitary units, it organizes military bases, including near the borders with Israel.

As for Qatar, after the shale revolution in the United States and the entry of American shale gas into the world market, Qatar is becoming a competitor for the United States, especially in terms of supplies to Europe. After all, now it is Qatar that satisfies Europe’s basic needs in liquefied gas(LNG). And according to Qatari Minister of Industry Affairs Mohammed al-Sad, the EU is the most promising market for LNG sales. In Europe, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 2017, Qatar's main partners include countries such as the UK, Italy, Belgium, Spain, France, and Turkey.

Regarding Turkey and the Turkish Stream under construction, its first line should meet Turkey's growing need for gas, since Turkey already lacks the existing gas pipelines to supply Russian Blue Stream gas, and the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline will be a branch from main gas pipeline"Soyuz" passing through Ukraine. Let us remind you that there is already a solid international legal basis for the construction of the Turkish Stream. After all, on October 10, Moscow and Ankara entered into an intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. The document was signed by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Turkish counterpart Berat Albayrak in the presence of the presidents of the two countries, Vladimir Putin and Recep Taipei Erdogan.

On December 2, the Turkish Parliament adopted a law ratifying the agreement with Russia on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project (210 deputies voted for ratification of the document, seven opposed and six abstained).

On December 6, Turkish President Recep Taipei Erdogan signed a law ratifying this agreement with Russia.

On December 19, 2017, State Duma deputies at a plenary meeting approved the ratification of the agreement between Russia and Turkey on the construction of two strings of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline.

And on February 1, the Federation Council also approved the law ratifying the agreement between the governments of Russia and Turkey on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project.

And we should not discount other Russian-Turkish projects, including the construction of a nuclear power plant. And the proposed delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey may indicate the depth of the developing not only economic, but also military-political ties between Russia and Turkey.

Thus, Vladimir Popov’s reasoning about the threat to the Turkish Stream, at best, indicates the lack of information of this military expert, and at worst, deliberately misleading readers. Indeed, for many military experts of the Soviet school, the current Russian Union with Turkey seems unnatural, since relations with Turkey of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union(with the exception of a short period of Bolshevik support for the government of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the 20s of the last century) have always been quite confrontational and tense. It is clear that Russian-Turkish relations go back no more than five centuries, and during this time many events took place. What Vladimir Popov may be right about is that the current alliance with Turkey is based on the authoritarian regime of Erdogan and in the event of its collapse, internal Turkish contradictions may well lead to the rise of supporters of a pro-American line in Turkish politics. In this case, the Russian expert may turn out to be right: a US-Turkish military alliance will be created on a new basis with all the ensuing negative consequences for Russia, including for the Turkish Stream.

The modern world is precisely characterized by the absence of obvious fronts, especially on a regional scale. And as they rightly say, politics is the art of the possible. This is especially true of our time, when the ideological component fades into the background, or even into the background.

In the spring of 2011, an armed conflict between the Syrian opposition (Free Syrian Army - FSA) and the Assad government began in Syria. Unexpectedly, it turned out that the conflict was well prepared - it began on the crest of the Arab Spring, the opposition confidently “smashed” the Assad regime even in Paris, the FSA was armed with everything necessary, and the Kurdish people’s self-defense units and Islamist terrorist groups - ISIS, al-Nusra Front - actively joined the confrontation (branch of Al-Qaeda) and others.

In 2000, Qatar proposed building a Qatari-Turkish gas pipeline to Europe from its South Pars field in the Persian Gulf, shared with Iran. The project had 2 branches: one through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, the second through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Both branches met in a powerful gas concentrator in Turkey, and from there to Europe. All expenses - $10 billion (at prices of that time) - were borne by Qatar.

Europe, for its part, was ready to sharply reduce gas supplies from Russia, its long-term partner, and for this purpose developed the 3rd energy package, which legally limits Russia in the gas transportation and distribution system of the European Union.

All Arab countries were in favor of the project, except Syria, which refused to provide its territory for laying pipes, justifying this by the fact that it was obliged to protect the interests of its ally Russia, a key supplier of gas to Europe.

Iraq was also against it. And although Saddam was neutralized in 2003, it was impossible to come to an agreement with the Shiites who came to power, constituting 2/3 of the population.

What is the correct spelling – Iraq or Iran? The shadow opponent of the project - both the Syrian and Iraqi lines - was Iran. He has always opposed Arab countries based on internal Islamic contradictions - they are so deep that in 1980 they led Iran to a full-scale 8-year war with Iraq.

And a year later (in 2002), Iran proposed its gas pipeline project - Nabucco, which was supposed to deliver gas to Austria through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary.

This was a real threat to Russia's gas supremacy in Europe. But Iran does not have its own volume of raw materials in the Caspian part of the country, and Russia managed to “divorce” Tehran from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, the sources of gas supplies to Nabucco, and thereby disrupt the construction plan.

However, a more effective reason is the lack of funds and technological backwardness of Iran, which does not allow it to build a gas pipeline from its main field in the Persian Gulf. But if money is not a problem, then no one will give technology to Tehran. And the only country on whose shoulders it is possible to deliver Iranian gas to Europe is Qatar. He has gas and money, which means he has technology.

Qatar is a tiny state in the Sunni world (only 1.9 million people), but the richest, with the largest GDP per capita - $144 thousand, and, most importantly, well organized.

Qatar's wealth is oil and gas. It has the third largest reserves of natural gas, after Russia and Iran. Unlike other oil-producing countries (with the exception of the Arab ones), all the wealth is owned by the royal family, and therefore the money is not stolen, but integrated into special funds, they are used to purchase modern technologies, we hire experienced specialized engineers from all over the world.

Without gas pipelines to other countries, Qatar has become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, producing 120 billion cubic meters annually, almost 3 times ahead of its closest pursuer Australia. Half of the exports go to China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

In 2005, the Qatar Sovereign Investment Fund, one of the largest in the world, was created to manage state revenues. Operates in Europe, USA, Asia. Its assets are $340 billion.

He has large investments and even controlling stakes in leading companies in the world. We are talking about car manufacturers (for example, Volkswagen), fashion houses (Valentino), department store chains (El Corte Ingles and Sainsbury's), airports (Heathrow and Pulkovo), real estate in the most prestigious areas of London, Paris and Moscow, hotels (Savoy) , football clubs (Paris Saint-Germain), banks (Barclays and Credit Suisse), advertising (title sponsor of the Barcelona football club).The fund has a 10 percent stake ($11 billion) in Rosneft.

Recently, in accordance with the strategy of diversifying the Qatari economy, the fund has been actively investing in the US High Tech sector - $35 billion. Qatar acquired the Hollywood film studio Miramax, which owns, in particular, the film "Pulp Fiction". It is also significant that Qatar, which is not football at all, received the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup and a monopoly on broadcasting matches.

On June 4, the Gulf Sunnis—Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Egypt—severed diplomatic relations and canceled all land, sea and air contacts with Qatar. They were later joined by Yemen, Libya, the Maldives, Mauritius and even the Sunni Union of Comoros.

The richest kingdom is accused of destabilizing the situation in the region, interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring countries, aiding the terrorist groups Al-Qaeda and ISIS, supporting Hamas, providing financial assistance Iran-linked Hezbollah group. A separate line is the accusation that Qatar is trying to improve relations with Shiite Iran.

Within 24 hours, Qatar almost completely lost its well-established air transportation market, media space and other connections with the Sunni world. What happened and what is it - politics or a manifestation of intra-Islamic discord?

Until now, there has been a cold agreement between Qatar and Iran - each takes from the South Pars field as much as it can pump out. And, despite the common goal of delivering gas from one field to Europe, they acted separately - each promoting their own gas pipeline.

The bet on Syria has paid off - Assad is weakened, today he controls only 45% of his territory, and after his “complete victory over the enemies,” the winners and donors will sit down at the negotiating table to determine who will finance the restoration of Syria and on what terms.

And it turns out that the main sponsors of this process will be the Sunnis, UN funds and the European Union. But at the same time, the interests of Syria, Russia and other countries participating in the victory will be taken into account. Logically, so does Iran.

Russia is unable to stop the process of laying a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe through Turkey, but at the negotiating table it will be able to receive preferences in Europe. We are talking about Nord Stream 2, the Opal gas pipeline (shunting transit through Ukraine), half of which has already been “squeezed out” from Russia in accordance with the 3rd package mentioned above, and Turkish Stream, which the European Union will not interfere with.

Why did everything change in one day?

Intelligence agencies of the United States, Israel and Sunni countries received confirmed information about the secret plans of Qatar and Iran, about the conditions under which Tehran was able to persuade Doha to abandon the Syrian route and build a joint gas pipeline to Europe through Iranian territory.

The Qatari dossier contains an interesting “Freudian slip”: when the Arabs closed their airspace to Qatari airlines, they began to fly through Iran. This is more convenient according to various criteria.

There is also an inversion: at the request of Damascus, Iran, no matter what, will be included in the negotiators, but it will not agree to the transfer of Eastern Syria, where their gas pipeline will pass, to the Sunnis. You say - then they won’t give money? Well, don’t - to hell with Syria - well, they won’t restore it in 5-7 years - it will recover itself in half a century. Does anyone care?

The European trace in the “Sunni demarche” is more than plausible: it is more profitable for Europeans to receive Qatari gas through Iran rather than through Syria - they save on colossal funds for the restoration of Syria and maintain the validity of the 3rd package, without introducing the 4th, which is already ready for forced acceptance by the European Union.

The “American trace” is less plausible, but there is more than enough conspiracy theory in it. The United States, having the largest air force base in the region with 11 thousand military personnel on Qatari territory, acting proactively, developed a demarche plan. The expectation is that Qatar should falter and abandon the still vague Iranian direction. And they were not mistaken - Doha was confused and on the very first day it began to work backwards - Qatar is not able to survive under conditions of isolation and blockade. Not just gas...

But Iran is not asleep either - its arguments for Qatar’s withdrawal from the Sunni gas pipeline plan are more than weighty. First of all, the cost of the Iranian route is at least half as much. And therefore, Qatar will return the money spent on the war in Syria using a cheaper “pipe”. In addition, in this situation, Qatar will not have to contribute a share to the Sunni amount for the reconstruction of Syria. And it is at least $40 billion.

Secondly, by laying a gas pipeline through Iran, the Iranian-Qatari couple knocks out the Russian competitor from the game, freeing the European Union from its obligations and increasing the volume of its supplies. Cost of raw materials in joint project decreases significantly, which means profits increase.

...The “Syrian plan” for a gas pipeline from Qatar was thwarted by 2 events - Russia’s entry into the Syrian war and the Americans lifting sanctions on Iran.

Did the Sunni kingdoms manage to hide the true reasons for the demarche? Perhaps, yes - experts and analysts, for some reason, attacked the conflict from the side of relations within countries, without seeing or touching the gas side of the matter.

On the surface, perhaps, is the fact that Qatar transported its liquefied natural gas to the UK not through the Suez Canal, which was closed to it, but around Africa. Which is significantly more expensive.

A classic matrix of connections could help to understand the complex intricacy of relations - both between Sunnis and between the Gulf Arabs and Iran. But it won’t help - everything in it is so confusing. However, judge for yourself.

The June terrorist attacks in Iran, it would seem, only confirm the accusation imposed by the Shiites and their allies - ISIS is fighting with the money of the Sunnis and, of course, in their interests.

But the very next day, ISIS makes a sharp statement addressed to the Saudi royal family, saying that after Iran, it’s your turn.

You will say - this is a tactical move aimed precisely at diverting suspicion from the sponsor of terrorists. Maybe, maybe... But after such a “move”, shares of Saudi companies fell sharply. And pay attention - ISIS does not touch Qatar with a word...

And the final touch is that our “sweet couple” was supported by Turkey, after which the Sunnis found themselves cut off from gas pipelines. And the performance is just beginning. We'll have to see what its plot will be like.

The Kingdom of Crooked Mirrors is the most relevant name for the oil and gas pygmies with the money of colossi in the Looking Glass, where the state of affairs and the relationships of the heroes are brought to the point of absurdity .

The war in Syria is actually being fought for the most advantageous positions from the point of view of supplies of Middle Eastern energy resources to Europe, writes Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten. Intense battles are taking place precisely where the most important oil and gas pipelines pass or are supposed to pass. At the same time, Russia seeks to prevent the development of pro-Western routes, and the United States seeks to prevent the implementation of Russian interests in this area.

If you look closely at the war in Syria, it will become noticeable that military operations are carried out only in those areas where important oil pipelines are located or planned, writes Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten. According to the publication, Russia, Western powers and the Gulf countries are fighting for the best positions for gas and oil supplies to the European market.

The two most important oil markets are in the Syrian cities of Manbij and Al-Bab in Aleppo province, the article notes. Two significant oil pipelines pass through their territories, supplying oil from Iraq to Syria, all the way to Idlib province. In the west, it also passes through Aleppo, the publication reports.

Whoever controls Manbij has great influence over oil transportation in Syria, Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten claims. This also applies to cities such as Aleppo, Idlib and Al-Bab in the west of the country. The same oil pipeline that passes through these settlements stretches in the east of the country through Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, the publication emphasizes. This oil pipeline supplies oil from Iraqi Mossul to Syria.

As the article notes, until now Turkey has been unable to influence oil pipelines in any way in the Syrian conflict. However, if Manbij is captured, Ankara may gain influence over oil pipeline systems in Syria, the publication assures.

The currently unfolding battle for Aleppo is called decisive only because Aleppo is the last major city through which the most important oil pipeline in the country passes, Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten emphasizes. “Whoever controls Aleppo controls the “key” to the oil pipeline,”- writes the publication. At the same time, readers' attention is drawn to the fact that particularly intense fighting between the conflicting parties is taking place precisely in those cities of Syria through which this important oil pipeline passes, or in areas where the creation of a gas pipeline between Qatar and Turkey is planned.

As the article notes, Russia, in turn, supports the construction of a gas pipeline from Iran through Iraq and Syria (it should pass through the Syrian Homs) - therefore, from the Russian point of view, this city should not fall under the control of Islamic militants.

US airstrikes are concentrated primarily in the eastern part of the country, while Russian airstrikes are carried out primarily in western Syria. Control over the western regions is important for Russia in order to thwart plans for the construction of pro-Western oil and gas pipelines. At the same time, it is important for the United States to prevent plans for pro-Russian gas pipelines, the publication explains.

In addition, there is a gas pipeline project that should connect Israel and Turkey through Damascus. Subject to the fall of the government in Damascus, this gas pipeline would allow Israel to improve its position as a gas supplier, but Russia does not want competitors in this area, Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten notes.

As the Kafkassam Center for Strategic Studies in Ankara explains, the attempt to build a “Kurdish corridor” in Syria is also connected with the desire to control the most important oil and gas pipeline routes . "The real purpose of this corridor is to transport Kurdish oil and gas from northern Iraq through northern Syria to the Mediterranean Sea,"- Center analysts report. They note that “The United States has planned to build a new oil and gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf to northern Iraq and from there further, through northern Syria. Thus, Iraqi oil should be supplied to the West through Turkey and northern Syria and, first of all, to the energy market in Europe.”.

However, this plan to create a “Kurdish corridor” failed because Russia intervened in Syrian events, emphasize researchers from the Kafkassam Center in the Turkish capital . “Russia is against this corridor because it wants to keep Europe as a client,” buying Russian energy resources, the article explains. “Under no circumstances will Russia give up its position in the European market,”- analysts are confident research center in Ankara.

source Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten Germany Europe tags

Just a year ago it was something like this:

Syria is a fight for gas in Europe between Russia and Qatar. The prospect of the fall of the Assad regime - gas from Qatar will appear in Europe. Gas experts understand well that Assad will never allow the Qatari gas pipeline, unfriendly to Iran, to pass through his territory. As soon as the Sunnis come to power in Syria, the Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline will be immediately built. The final destination of this route is Southern and Central Europe.

Russia will be the first to suffer from this.

Europeans play a complex game with their own interest.

His name is the price of gas in European burners.

The players are Russia and competing gas pipelines, including the Caspian Baku-Erzurum, which moves through Austria to the German market, North African, Nabucco (Iran + Iraq) and, finally, a gas pipeline from Qatar. It was for this purpose that Qatar started a game of war with Iran.

First, if you remember, Iran was isolated - sanctions and an embargo on oil and gas supplies, as a result of which gas production at the South Pars field jointly with Qatar decreased significantly.

Then came the conflict in Syria, which stands in the way of pipes from Qatar to Europe. A conflict largely paid for by Qatar.
Qatar has proven natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic meters, which at current production rates will last for 160 years.

Qatari gas has a significant advantage over Russian gas - a significantly lower cost, which will allow Qatar to reduce gas prices in Europe so much that it will be very difficult to compete with it.

And the Europeans, despite the high and impeccable level of Gazprom’s service to its contracts in Europe, will play to lower prices, waving Qatari gas “from Al-Qaeda” (the structure is prohibited in the Russian Federation - ed.).
But something, somewhere and someone went “wrong” and suddenly everything changed...
As it became known on Friday, Novatek would like to engage in LNG marketing together with a Qatari company. Novak: “Our famous company“NOVATEK is interested in participating together with the Qatari company in the markets, let’s say, the sale of liquefied natural gas, in the marketing of this gas.”

The moment to make public wishes and make an almost official proposal was chosen well: a Russian-Qatari forum is being held in Moscow.
What is the meaning of this sentence? If the parties agree, Qatari volumes intended for Europe will go to Asia, towards the obligations of Yamal LNG, and vice versa - gas from Yamal LNG will go to Europe towards Qatari sales.

Judging by today's news, the parties have agreed...

And more on the topic of the day: Qatar will be put under the knife by common consent

There is a version that the Arabs unanimously and all at once united against Qatar not only of their own free will, but also with the quiet approval of the United States and Russia.

The fact is that Qatar is today the leader in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and in this niche is an annoying competitor for both the Americans and Russia, which is now building several powerful gas liquefaction complexes at once.

It is noteworthy that relations with Qatar were severed by both the Arabs, “protected” by the Americans (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), and Egypt and Libya, under the influence of Moscow.

It seems that Russia and the United States have agreed to leave Europe access only to “Russian” and “American” gas. And maybe to oil too. Europeans, of course, will try to resist and do the best they can in response, for example, with lawsuits, etc. But all this to Moscow and Washington is a waste of grain for elephants, and Europe is not capable of more.

The EU has a real problem - either the Russian oil and gas needle, or the “American” one, and there will be no other options. Europe will not survive on green energy alone. By the way, the US refusal to sponsor green energy and Trump’s announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement are exactly from the same opera.

Europe had its last hope for energy supplies from Iran and Qatar. It is in the interests of both the Americans and the Russians to take control of these flows. And it looks like they have already agreed on this issue. Russia, at a minimum, will not interfere with the Americans and Arabs clearing Qatar to zero.
Except economic interest, Moscow has long had a grudge against Qatar for supporting gangs in our Caucasus.

So it is quite possible that at some point Tomahawks from the Persian Gulf and Calibers from the Caspian and Mediterranean will simultaneously fly to Qatar.
And the final touch: apparently, the World Cup in Qatar in 2022 will no longer be held. It is not a fact that Qatar itself will survive by this time.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, commenting on the decision of a number of Arab countries to sever diplomatic relations with Qatar, said that Russia does not interfere in the affairs of other states.

“As for the decision of a number of Arab states to sever relations with Qatar, that’s their business. This is a bilateral relationship between these states. We do not interfere in these decisions. Although we are suspected that we are behind any event in the world, I assure you: this is not so.<…>We have never rejoiced at the difficulties that arise in relations between other countries,” Lavrov said at a press conference following negotiations with his Belarusian colleague Vladimir Makei.

The Russian minister emphasized that Moscow is interested in maintaining good relations with all countries.

In 2009, Qatar discussed with Syria the construction of a 1,500-mile gas pipeline in Europe. The gas pipeline route was supposed to pass through the province of Aleppo. This information is provided by the publication OilPrice in the material “The Natural Gas War Burning Under Syria”. Qatar in those days (as, indeed, now) was not happy with the fact that the country sells gas almost entirely in the form of LNG, and pipeline transport is limited to supplies to the UAE and Oman via the Dolphin gas pipeline. In general, the route of the gas pipeline to Europe, as proposed by Qatar, was supposed to pass, in addition to Syria, through Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Then Syria refused Qatar due to the fact that such a project was contrary to the interests of Russia, an ally of Syria. Instead, the Syrian authorities agreed to participate in the Friendship Pipeline project (also called the Islamic Pipeline) from Iran (from the city of Assalouyeh) through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Cyprus to Greece, bypassing Turkey. This project was referred to behind the scenes as a “Shiite” gas pipeline.

In 2011, the Arab Spring began to flare up in the region. Also in 2011, Türkiye provided its bases to support Syrian opposition forces. In August of the same year, the UN called on Bashar al-Assad to resign.

Despite the difficult situation, Syria, Iran and Iraq entered into a preliminary agreement in Amman in July 2011 on the construction of the Friendship gas pipeline, which would deliver natural gas from Iran's South Pars field to Syria's Damascus.

Qatar still had a chance to change the route of its gas pipeline to Europe, choosing instead of Syria through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, but Saudi Arabia opposed Kuwait. I would like to add that theoretically it was possible to lay a gas pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey, bypassing all other countries, and some sources, such as the Syrian Free Press, draw just such a route, calling it “Plan B” - but for In order to assess the reality of a particular route, you need to accurately understand the geomorphology of the issue. One thing is clear - the easiest way is to lay a gas pipeline next to an existing pipeline, and there are not many options: either first along the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, and then through Jordan and Syria, or through Kuwait, and then through Iraq partially along the pipeline, which is on the map The EIA is designated Iraq Strategic Pipeline.

Thus, it is time to create a government in Syria that is friendly to Qatar, does not want to protect the interests of Iran and Russia, and would agree to lay a Qatari gas pipeline to Europe through its territory.

Let us remember that the Qataris are a tiny people. The country's indigenous population does not exceed 250 thousand people. The rest of the country's residents are actually migrant workers. In addition, the Qataris for the most part are not distinguished by good health and it is difficult to create a combat-ready army from them. But the country’s checkbook is ok. In particular, there were quite enough funds to finance the Syrian opposition.

Qatar's troubles in Syria were not limited to the refusal to build a gas pipeline to Europe, and plans to build such a gas pipeline from Iran. The agreements within the framework of the Friendship gas pipeline provided for the creation of a gas hub in Syria. In the future, Cyprus itself, off the coast of which significant reserves of natural gas have been found, as well as Lebanon, Israel and Egypt, where large reserves of blue fuel have also been discovered, could join gas sales through the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Cyprus-Greece gas pipeline. Sales of Qatari gas to Europe would be a big question mark, especially in a situation where exports to the US have fallen to zero due to shale gas production in that country.

Thus, Qatar faced the prospect of limiting the sales market for its gas to the UAE, Oman, as well as Asian countries, where Australia (and, in the future, the United States) actively competes with it. The European market would be completely closed by Iran and Russia with the support of Iraq, Syria, Cyprus and, possibly, Israel and Egypt. Well, the United States would have joined in with its shale gas, which would have completely buried any Qatari hopes.

As a result, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which support the moderate Syrian opposition, have focused on the route along which a gas pipeline could eventually run from Qatar through Syria. This is the province of Aleppo. It was there that Türkiye planned to create a “security buffer zone.”

Owning this buffer zone, Turkey would practically guarantee itself the position of an “energy hub” and would “collect” natural gas from Central Asia (if the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is built), the Caspian region, as well as from the already mentioned eastern Mediterranean (Israel, Cyprus, Egypt and Lebanon). Accordingly, Turkey would have many potential gas suppliers, and it would cease to depend on Russian gas. At the same time, Turkey turns refugee flows into Europe on and off, trying to achieve what it wants. This means that, most likely, having become an energy hub, it would “turn on” and “turn off” the gas, trying to push through its own decisions.

Russia was categorically not happy with this situation. As a result, Turkey was “surrounded” on three sides: according to the author of OilPrice, Russia took Turkey into a semi-ring, returning Crimea, strengthening the military group in Armenia, and also deploying air defense and troops in Syria. Qatar's plans to build a gas pipeline to Europe look completely illusory in this situation.