The energy crisis required the development of unconventional models, as the BCG and GE/McKinsey models "didn't work" at that time. In this regard, it became necessary to develop a new model, which made it possible to analyze the possible development of the industry situation. The idea of ​​creating such a model - the Direct Policy Matrix - belongs to the British-Dutch chemical company Shell.

The Shell / DPM model matrix is ​​a two-dimensional table consisting of nine quadrants (Fig. 5.6), where the x-axis reflects the competitiveness of the company's business sector, the y-axis - the general state and prospective development of the industry.

So, among the variables characterizing the competitiveness of an enterprise, the authors of the model include the relative market share, coverage and efficiency. distribution network, breadth and depth of the product line, inventories, product quality.

The variables that characterize the attractiveness of an industry include the growth rate of the industry, the rate of return in the industry and its stability, the influence of the state, suppliers in the industry, barriers to entry. Each quadrant of the matrix has its own strategy.

Rice. 5.6.

According to this model, the strategic decisions made depend on the main point of analysis - either this is the life cycle of the type of business ( 1), or cash flow (2). In the first case, the strategy of moving across the matrix field will be optimal: doubling the volume of production or curtailing the business - the strategy of strengthening competitive advantage- leader strategy - growth strategy - cash generator strategy - partial curtailment strategy - curtailment strategy. If the main focus is on cash flow, the optimal trajectory will represent the movement from the lower right cells of the matrix to the upper left.

The Shell / DPM matrix has a number of similarities with the GE / McKinsey matrix and is a kind of development of the BCG matrix. Thus, the model under study has the same dimension as GE / McKinsey, i.e. 3 x 3 and is based on a multiple assessment of business parameters. At the same time, the main emphasis in the model is placed precisely on the quantitative parameters of the business - on the assessment of the flow Money(as in the BCG model) and return on investment (as in the GE/McKinsey model). The advantage of the model lies in the fact that it allows us to consider types of businesses that are at different stages. life cycle.

The Shell / DPM model is descriptive and instructive, as it allows you to clarify the actual position of the business and determine a possible strategy for future behavior. An important positive point is the ability to take into account time in the model (each section represents a special point in time).

As disadvantages of the model, specialists, in particular, V.S. Efremov, note the following: the choice of variables is conditional, the absence of a criterion for determining the number of variables, the complexity of assessing the significance of variables, and the difficulty in comparing business areas belonging to different industries.

The Shell / DPM model as a whole, despite all the advantages, turned out to be limited to a number of capital-intensive industries (chemistry, metallurgy, oil refining).

In 1975 the British-Dutch Chemical Company Shell developed and implemented in the practice of strategic analysis and planning its own model, called the directed policy matrix (Direct Policy Matrix or DPM)(hereinafter referred to as the Shell/DPM model) (Table 4.11, Figures 4.9 and 4.10).

Table 4.11

Variables used in the Shell/DPM model

Characteristics of the attractiveness of the industry

Characteristic enterprise competitiveness

Industry Growth Rate Industry Relative Rate of Return Buyer Price Buyer Commitment trademark The Importance of Competitive Preemption Relative stability of the industry rate of return Technological barriers to entry into the industry Significance of contractual discipline in the industry Influence of suppliers in the industry Influence of the state in the industry Level of utilization of industry capacities Product substitution Image of the industry in society

Relative market share Distribution network coverage Distribution network efficiency Technological Skills Product Line Width and Depth Equipment and Location Production Efficiency Experience Curve Inventory Product Quality R&D Capability Economy of scale production After-sales service

In the Shell/DPM model, as in other strategic models, the abscissa and ordinate axes reflect, respectively, strengths enterprise (competitive position of the company) and market attraction

Rice. 4.9.

katelnost. Each of the 9 cells corresponds to a specific strategy.

The Shell/DPM matrix is ​​similar in appearance to the McKinsey/GE matrices and develops the ideas of strategic business positioning underlying the BCG model.

However, there are fundamental differences between them. Thus, compared to the single-factor BCG model, the Shell/DPM matrix, like the McKinsey matrix, is a multi-factor matrix with a dimension of 3x3, based on multiple assessments of both qualitative and quantitative business parameters. The Shell/DPM model puts even more emphasis on the quantitative parameters of the business, suggests that when making strategic decisions, it is necessary to take into account both the assessment of cash flow (an indicator of short-term planning) and the assessment of return on investment (an indicator of long-term planning).

Rice. 4.10.

The Shell/DPM model identifies business lines that generate money supply, and with a high potential for return on investment in the future, directs managers to redistribute financial flows.

Advantage of the Shell/DPM Model is that it solves the problems of combining qualitative and quantitative variables into a single parametric system and does not depend on the statistical relationship between market share and profitability. Applied to petrochemical industry special methods were developed, compiled according to the principle of the "tree of goals". This allowed the authors, depending on the mutual combination of values ​​or characteristics of the factors under consideration, to obtain generalized estimates of the degree of market attractiveness and competitiveness of the enterprise.

Disadvantages of the Shell/DPM model:

• descriptive and constructive character;
• the significance of variables has not been determined, and their determination is very difficult;
• the specific boundaries of the breakdown of the scales of the axes are not indicated (the differentiation of markets according to the degree of their attractiveness and the classification of companies according to competitive advantages into three categories);
• variables are highly industry-specific.

• Efremov V.S. Decree. op. S. 82.

The Shell DPM model (British-Dutch Shell, Direct Policy Matrix) was proposed in 1975 during the energy crisis. The current situation did not allow effective use of the well-known BCG and McKinsey models focused on assessing the achievements of the organization in the past, but required focusing on the analysis of the development of the current industry situation. The Shell matrix was intended for entrepreneurial companies vertically integrated around one business, in which all enterprises included in it produce a full range of products, competing with each other.

The Shell model matrix is ​​based primarily on quantitative assessments of business parameters (the duration of the technology life cycle phases, the speed and prospects for demand growth, profitability, the level of instability, etc.), which in practice is more promising than the BCG approach (Table 8.2).

Table 8.2 - Shell DPM Matrix

The main objective of the Shell model, like BCG, is to manage financial performance for the development of new promising types of business. However, here the emphasis is not only on the current cash flow, but also not on the prospective return on investment, which allows us to give a commercial assessment of the attractiveness of businesses in the future. In accordance with the positions occupied in the matrix, the following types of market structures are distinguished.

1. business leader, with a strong position in an attractive industry. Its potential market is quite large, growth rates are high, there are practically no weaknesses, and there are no obvious threats from competitors. For him, an investment strategy is recommended as long as the industry is promising, allowing you to protect your leading position.

2. Growth- the position occupied by a strong firm in a moderately attractive industry in the absence of serious competitors. Stable or growing sales provide a high rate of return. A strategy of maintaining the status quo is used to ensure that the necessary funds are received.

3. cash generator- a firm with a fairly strong and well-established business, but in an unattractive industry where the market is stable or declining, and the profit rate is falling. Investments are recommended to maintain current returns.

4. Strengthen competitive advantages- the position of medium-sized and efficient firms operating in attractive industries. It is advisable for them, if the business is promising, and the market share, product quality and business reputation are high enough, to make investments. In this case, there is a chance to become a leader.

5. Continue business with care can companies that have no special prospects. They usually occupy intermediate positions in medium attractive industries. Since market growth and industry rate of return decline is slow, it is possible to apply a strategy of consistently investing in small portions in the hope of a quick return.

6. Partially wind down business and gradually transferring assets to other areas is recommended if the company does not have any strengths and opportunities. This occurs when the market is unattractive, the rate of return is low, and there is excess capacity.

7. Double the volume or wind down the business maybe a corporation with a weak position in an attractive industry. With a favorable situation, an attack along the entire front is possible (but it requires significant funds). Otherwise, you need to leave the business.

8. Continue business with caution or curtail production appropriate for companies with a weak position in a moderately attractive industry. Here, new investments are not made, and objects that do not bring profit are gradually liquidated.

9. Curtail business and to get rid of enterprises that bring losses is necessary in a weak position in an unattractive industry.

In general, when focusing on cash flow, the optimal strategy is to invest the profits created in the field of cash generator and received as a result of partial winding down of the business, in the field of doubling production and strengthening competitive advantages. In general, the strategic decisions made on the basis of the Shell DPM model depend on what is in the center of management's attention - the life cycle of a type of business or the company's cash flow.

Human factor - a set of factors and conditions that ensure the accident-free activity and performance of a person and aspects of his interaction with systems that are usually not considered in the framework of basic research in the field of microergonomics. And this is interaction and relationships with other participants joint activities, with physical factors, as well as social environment in a collaborative environment. At the same time, the Black Sea Fleet is understood as a combination of professional, psychological and social opportunities and restrictions of all participants in the activity, not taking into account which, when designing aircraft, organizing the maintenance and conditions of flight activity, may lead to erroneous actions.

Currently, when analyzing factors Black Sea Fleet (ICAO) uses the “SHEL” model, the abbreviation of which is made up of the initial letters of the English names of its constituent elements: Software, Hardware, Environment, Liveware. The SHEL model was first developed by Edwards in 1972. and then in 1975. supplemented by the Hawkins diagram illustrating it (Fig.). The components included in the model mean the following:

Software - procedures.

Hardware - machine (object).

Environment - environment.

Liveware is a person (subject).

In ICAO materials, the concept Black Sea Fleet Edwards is accepted as the main one and is an extended version of the conceptual model " man-machine-environment ».

In this model, the following interpretation is proposed:

- Subject (Liveware): performer (L1) or other performers interacting with him (L2), their biological-medical, physiological, psycho-physiological, psychological, social-psychological resources.

- Object (Hardware): the machine is the ergonomic characteristics of workplaces: controls and information display systems, etc.

- Procedures (Software):(manuals, technologies, installations, norms, rules, etc..

-Environment (Environment): natural and microclimatic conditions in which the components that make up the model must interact.

In this model, matching or non-matching block boundaries

(interfaces) are important, as are the characteristics of the blocks themselves. The subject (executor of activity) is the central "nodal" part of the SHELL model. The remaining components must be adapted and matched accordingly

with this "nodal" part.

To analyze possible failures in the system of joint activities, it is recommended to investigate the state of the following lines of interconnection of components:

Subject - object (L-H).

Subject - installations (L-S).

Subject - environment (L-E).

Subject - subject (L-L).

Subject - object. The relationship between the human and machine interface is considered, namely:

taking into account the characteristics of the human body; taking into account the possibilities of assimilation of information by the user; as well as controls, their coding and placement in the workplace.

Subject - procedures. The relationship of a person with such components as rules, guidelines and other documents regulating the work is considered.

The subject is the environment. The relationship of the type "man - environment" in the process of activity was one of the first to be established.

Subject - subject. The feature of interaction and mutual relations of people at joint activity is considered.

According to the Human Factors Training Manual (ICAO), theoretical sources in the study of the influence of the human factor in the areas of its influence are such sciences as:

Psychology and human physiology;

Anthropometry and biomechanics;

Biology and chronobiology.

PSYCHOLOGICAL SYSTEM OF ACTIVITY (PSD) - is a psychological structure of activity, organized in terms of performing the functions of a specific activity, achieving a specific goal.

Another model of strategic analysis is the "directed policy matrix" (DPM - DirectPoliticMatrice), which was developed by the British-Dutch company Shell. The Shell/DPM model was created as a development of the Boston Advisory Group (BCG) model. The directional policy matrix has an outward resemblance to the General Electric-McKinsey matrix, but at the same time it is a kind of development of the idea of ​​​​strategic business positioning, embedded in the BCG model. The Shell/DPM matrix is ​​a two factor 3x3 matrix. It is based on assessments of both quantitative and qualitative business parameters.
The following indicators are located along the axes of the Shell/DPM matrix:

· perspectives of the business sector;

business competitiveness.

The Shell/DPM model puts more emphasis on quantification than the GE-McKinsey model. With the help of the Shell/DPM model, the cash flow is immediately estimated ( BCG matrix) and return on investment (GE-McKinsey matrix). As in the GE-McKinsey model, businesses that are at different stages of their life cycle can be valued here.
The X-axis in the directed policy matrix reflects the strengths of the enterprise (competitive position), and the Y-axis reflects industry attractiveness. The y-axis is a general measure of the state and prospects of an industry.

Each of the nine cells of the matrix corresponds to a specific strategy:
business leader– the company has a strong position in an attractive industry. The development strategy of the enterprise should be aimed at protecting its leading positions and further development business.
Growth strategy– the company has a strong position in a moderately attractive industry. The company needs to try to maintain its position.
Cash Generator Strategy The company has a strong position in an unattractive industry. The main task of the enterprise is to extract the maximum income.
Strategies for Strengthening Competitive Advantage The company is in the middle position in an attractive industry. It is necessary to invest in order to move into a leadership position.
Continue business with care- the company occupies an average position in the industry with an average attractiveness. Careful investment with a quick return.
Partial collapse strategy The company is in the middle position in an unattractive industry. You should extract the maximum income from what is left, and then invest in promising industries.
Double production or shut down business The company is in a weak position in an attractive industry. The company must either invest or leave the business.

Continue business with caution or cut production partially- the company occupies a weak position in a moderately attractive industry. Try to stay in the industry while it makes a profit.
Business exit strategy The company is in a weak position in an unattractive industry. The company needs to get rid of such business.