How will the labor market change in the future? Skills instead of professions: how the Russian labor market will change

The development of new technologies and the changing situation in the economy set new trends in the labor market of the Russian Federation. GorodRabot experts. ru told us what changes await us in the next 10 years.

Robotization walks the planet

Despite the slow pace of introduction of automated systems, which is ten times inferior to the intensity of re-equipment in Japan and South Korea, in the next decade, robots will replace up to 10 million Russian workers.

Even with sustained growth, this could lead to an avalanche of unemployment. Therefore, the authorities now need to think about advanced training and retraining programs for certain categories of citizens of working age.

Building Boom

Sooner or later it had to happen. Observed in last years a record fall in mortgage rates and government compensation programs are likely to provide the necessary impetus to revive the construction industry. The highest growth rates will be observed in residential construction, and an increase in demand for professional builders and engineers will occur very soon - before 2020.

The approach to personnel will change

If even 10 years ago most employers needed narrow specialists who could successfully perform tasks only within their own specialization, today employees who can work in a team are in demand. In the near future, the trend towards collective players who can solve non-standard tasks will only intensify.

Which professions are at risk of disappearing?

Continuing the topic of introducing new technologies, one cannot ignore those that may disappear in the near future. Security guards, salespeople, accountants and officials will be most at risk of losing their jobs. The system is already successfully operating in Russia e-government, which replaced thousands of officials responsible for issuing certificates and certificates.

Instead of traditional security services, modern business is increasingly using automated security systems, and sellers are being replaced by trading robots before our eyes. The inevitable technological boom will lead to an increase in demand for programmers of various specializations, the emergence of such professions as a 3D printing designer, a cyberprosthesis developer, a network doctor, an ecoanalyst, etc.

The report of the World Economic Forum "The Future of Work" focuses on the fourth industrial revolution. It says that the development of technology by 2020 will lead to a reduction in the number of jobs in the world by 5 million, and a number of socio-economic factors will completely change business models in all industries. The competencies required for a successful career will also change.

From the material you will learn:

• What fundamental changes will occur in the labor market;
• What new competencies will be in demand;
• How can companies prepare for changes in the labor market;
• What employers should do in the short and long term.

Experts in the report of the World Economic Forum "The Future of Work" note that the professions most in demand today did not exist at all some 5-10 years ago. The rate of obsolescence is growing, which is why the ability of both business representatives and employees themselves to anticipate and prepare for new market challenges is so important today. The WEF study highlights the main trends in the field of employment, names the key skills and methods of recruitment in different countries and industries.

Major changes in the labor market

According to experts, today we are on the verge of the fourth industrial revolution, so changes are inevitable, in particular in such areas as nanotechnology, genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing. Computers will gradually "force out" people, and "smart" houses, factories and farms will be able to solve various problems on one's own. This trend will lead to the fact that more than 7 million jobs will be completely lost, but about 2 million jobs will appear in the field of finance, architecture, management and IT.

The study showed that by 2020 almost in all areas analysts will be in demand and sales representatives. Many survey participants noted the need for such a specialist as a manager, since it is he who will help, if necessary, to get the company out of a difficult situation.

What new competencies will be in demand

In five years, according to experts, competition, as well as the struggle for specialists, will increase in such areas as mathematics, IT technologies and architecture. The skills required for employment will also change, since, for example, machine learning will not be able to completely replace a certain profession, however, it can replace a person in solving a number of issues. Therefore, employees will have to deal with several other tasks.

By 2020, the importance of social skills, such as learning ability, emotional intelligence, and the ability to persuade, will increase for employers. Technical skills, such as knowledge of certain programs, will be more likely to complement strong social competencies.

How companies prepare for changes in the labor market

According to the study, demographic, technological and socio-economic changes will greatly affect the employment sector, which will inevitably cause problems in the field of recruitment, training and personnel management. Companies that do not address these issues in time could face serious economic and social costs.

Today, most employers are aware of what awaits them, but so far, unfortunately, they are in no hurry to make any decisions - for example, only 53% of the surveyed HR directors are confident in the adequacy of change management planning in the company. Typically, the impossibility competent training to change is associated with a lack of understanding of the scale of the impending disaster, limited resources or pressure from shareholders.

Among the most popular directions in the strategy of management and implementation of change today are investments in employee development, support for vertical and horizontal mobility, as well as mentoring and attracting foreign specialists.

What employers can do in the short term

During the study, experts made a number of recommendations for businesses in the short term. So, in the near future, the business should conduct:

• HR function update. It is she who must identify and use new types of tools to identify hiring trends and knowledge gaps in workers.
• Data analysis. Businesses need a new approach to managing talent and predicting data.
• Refusal of discrimination. Unconscious biases in job descriptions and the recruitment process need to be identified.
• Transition to online platforms. As organizational boundaries become increasingly blurred, companies need to learn how to interact with remote workers.

Read more about the features of the functioning of the labor market.

What employers should do in the long run

• Rethink the education system. Business and the state, according to researchers, must work together in order to understand how the education system of the 21st century should really look like. Today, there are problems of confrontation between knowledge and practice, on the one hand, and the prestige and filling of education, on the other. All existing systems training hinder progress and worsen the situation on the labor market.
• Provide opportunities for continuous learning. Business and government need to do everything possible to ensure that people have the time, funds and motivation to constantly improve their skills, as knowledge and skills are constantly becoming outdated.
• Engage in public-private collaboration. Businesses need to understand that collaboration in finding talent is a vital necessity for companies. Partnerships across sectors are an important component to addressing the recruitment challenge. In addition, it is necessary to establish cooperation with state institutions.

To answer the question of how the global labor market will develop and labor Relations on the planet in the next 20-30 years, the journalists of the business magazine Invest-Foresight analyzed more than 150 forecasts published by various research groups and consulting centers.

The forecasts of futurists, economists and political scientists say that by the middle of the 21st century the current state of the world and humanity will change quite noticeably. Many predict a bleak picture - almost all work will be done by robots, and the majority of the population will have nothing left but to live on benefits. This can threaten a variety of problems and conflicts of a social and military nature, as well as the fight against the robots themselves, the battle for resources, the use of birth control mechanisms and the segregation of different categories of people.

But there is another concept that offers, in fact, to take the next step in the history of human progress. According to her, we are waiting for the onset of the "golden age", due to infinite high performance robots, tax redistribution of excess income and the introduction of an unconditional basic income.

It is interesting that the origins of these paintings are the same, and the beginning has already been made. Today, robots and artificial intelligence (AI) perform only a small part of the work in some industries, but many agree that the pace of automation will only increase and lead to the washout of some people from the market.

And first of all, specialties that are regulated and easily algorithmized, including salespeople, drivers, tellers, call center employees, lawyers and economists, will be replaced by robots and AI. And “difficult” professions will remain in demand, where artificial intelligence cannot yet replace people (scientists, top managers, cultural figures, top IT specialists, doctors of the highest category, etc.), as well as “simple professions”, where the work is poorly algorithmized or the replacement of workers with “conditional robots” is not economically feasible (nurses, nannies, social workers and etc.). Crowding will devalue labor and increase technological unemployment. As a result, the polarization of jobs and the erosion of the middle class will accelerate in the labor market and the economy. Labor incomes will decline, while income from capital (for its owners) will increase. And then, depending on the decisions taken by governments or intergovernmental organizations, humanity will either follow the path of property stratification, or turn to the idea of ​​universal income.

Simultaneously with the release of jobs, new jobs will also appear, including those related to cognitive technologies and algorithmic processes - specialists in IT, machine learning, Big Data, robotics, etc. Depending on whether measures are taken in time to preserve jobs or create “new employment”, job losses may or may not have time to be offset by this “new employment”. In the best case, all cut jobs can be replaced by new professions, in the worst case, no more than half. However, with proper training, robotization will even lead to an increase in employment and wages, stimulating the demand for highly skilled labor.

The functions of HR services will also change - they will begin a targeted struggle for talents; perhaps the tracking and development of abilities will begin with school and even preschool age. Enterprises themselves will begin not only to consume human capital, but also to actively invest in its development. The main asset will be human capital, and the core of motivation will be social factors and the employer brand. However, some scenarios suggest that in 10-20 years the HR function in its current form will disappear or be significantly reduced: it will be gradually replaced by automation, outsourcing and self-organizing teams.

Experts note that the forms of attracting and motivating staff will become more flexible and diverse. Based on existing trends, researchers predict rapid growth in the labor market of remote work, freelancing, self-employment, outsourcing, temporary project teams.

The education system will catch up with the requirements of companies and the general challenges of the labor market. In general, everyone will have to learn new things - those professions that remain will be seriously changed, even representatives of working specialties will have to constantly improve their level of knowledge. Continuous education – “lifelong leaning” – learning and retraining throughout life will become a common practice.

The education system as a whole will be revised and, possibly, re-created, as an option - in a single universal educational space. Educational process will become more flexible and individualized, will receive further development online and blended forms of education. Scientists say that 2/3 of the current first-graders will work in professions that do not currently exist. The main thing, again, is to notice the process in time and get involved in the course not even of updating education, but of creating fundamentally new education systems.

The prospects presented in this forecast were discussed by members of the Future Design expert club:

- Personally, one forecast was not enough for me. Despite the fact that it is said about the decrease in the average time of employment, reflecting in a hidden form the growth of unemployment (more precisely, its growth within the framework of official employment), there is not a word about where the mass released before the working time of mankind will move in general: into “shadow” employment, into gratuitous social activity (volunteering, family work, etc.) or personal leisure (travel, self-improvement, education, religion, culture, etc.).

The forecast convinced me that in the near future lawyers of a completely new category will not be left without work and, moreover, will successfully multiply: there will be a whole branch of jurisprudence associated with the so-called. "the law of robots". A police robot that shot an intruder, a drone that did not deliver pizza on time, or a driverless car that got into an accident will be introduced into an unambiguous legal field. In this reality, descended from the pages of Karel Capek and Isaac Asimov, we will have to live in the coming decades - here I trust the authors of the forecast.

Konstantin Frumkin , editor-in-chief of Invest-Foresight magazine

- The authors of the review contrast the growth of wealth inequality and the option of introducing a basic income - it seems that there is no opposition here. Whether in the form of a basic income or otherwise, it is clear that if we enter an era of problematic employment, this will mean an increase in various types of social transfers and will undoubtedly contribute to inequality between recipients of social benefits and those who retain more traditional sources of income.

But much more interesting is the prospect that the expansion of social benefits, on the one hand, and the sharp problematization of employment, on the other, may lead to the fact that questions about employment and the source of income in general may turn out to be divorced: that is, we can talk about finding employment as a source of personal self-realization and a sense of being in demand - despite the fact that, in fact, income can have a social origin that is different from labor. Of course, there are many transitional forms between “volunteering” that does not generate income and fully paid work, starting with state-subsidized jobs. Thus, a special kind of “new employment” should arise, which will not imply the need and profitability of jobs in the economic sense of the word. These will be jobs that will either be subsidized in the name of reducing the problem of unemployment, or, rather, satisfy the existential needs of the workers themselves. These will be volunteer jobs, sometimes even games. An important source of jobs in this case can be the area of ​​politics and public administration, which attracts in itself, etc. Expect jobs that did not previously exist for reasons of economy - wages will now become a form of unemployment benefits.

Dmitry Evstafiev , Professor of the Faculty of Communications, Media and Design high school economy

– The central problem in forecasting the future of the labor market, both globally and at the national level, is probably that we do not see much of the state of the global economy for the next 12-15 years, for less than one educational cycle. We understand that, firstly, the future will be very different from the present - both in terms of the economy and in terms of social relations, and most importantly, that the "landing" will be tough. Secondly, we see an approximate set of technologies from which the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” will be constructed, but we do not yet fully understand the relationships between them. Finally, we understand that the so-called. The "Fourth Industrial Revolution" will be a phenomenon as social as it is technological. But we do not have a holistic image of the future economy, except for a few colorful phrases. Hence the contradictory requirements for personnel. However, one thing is clear: the requirements for those who are going, conditionally, to break "up" in socially(not in property or professional, but specifically in social), if they do not belong to the business or political aristocracy, will increase, which will return us to the problem of the relative pauperization of society, noted by Marx, and to the impact of social disproportions on global and national political processes. And I'm afraid we won't find anything but a combination of self-employment and strengthening state institutions as an answer.

Slow post-crisis recovery - this is how experts characterize the current state of the Russian labor market, which reacts quite quickly to changes in the economy. About who is at risk of being left without a job in the new year, and for whom the demand will go off scale, whether it is worth fearing new cuts and why every second job seeker is ready to go for a lower salary - in the RIA Novosti material.

The market is stabilizing

Analysts state that three years have passed since the beginning of the crisis and the labor market is finally stabilizing, and therefore, there is no reason to fear a large-scale wave of layoffs.

"In 2014, employers have already managed to "actively optimize the staff", so, in fact, they have no one to lay off," says Maria Ignatova, head of research at HeadHunter.

However, experts warn that the demand for low-skilled personnel will continue to fall. At risk are almost all professions that do not require specific knowledge and skills. These are cashiers, call center operators, couriers, secretaries and administrators.

In large hypermarkets, cashiers are already being replaced by terminals, and in call centers the lion's share work is performed by robot operators. There are even HR bots that can pick up sales consultants.

But there is no need to talk about large-scale automation yet - Russia is only at the beginning of its journey and is five to six years behind the West. Although in step with the times, of course, they go large companies- market leaders.

Giant enterprises are increasingly striving to develop the concept of "zero people in the mine / in the plant," Superjob points out.

"In the next 15 years, about two million people will lose their jobs in the transport industry - these are taxi drivers, drivers public transport, courier drivers, forwarding drivers, personal drivers, forklift drivers, truckers," Internet recruiting experts predict.

However, if robots take away part of the work from people, they will create new places in return: after all automated systems and artificial intelligence needs to be maintained. And therefore, the demand for specialists capable of creating and working with automation and robotization technologies will only grow.

Accountants in question

Qualified specialists will also be candidates for departure.

So, for example, according to recruiters' forecasts, large and medium-sized companies will continue to reduce the staff of accountants, which is associated with the introduction software products to optimize processes.

But lawyers can breathe a sigh of relief: the burden on the legal departments of many companies has recently increased due to the entry into force of the law on personal data.

Specialists in promotion and marketing will also be in demand. However, there is little demand for classical marketers - digital marketing is coming to the fore.
Medicine, pharmaceuticals and… blockchain

In connection with the development of biotechnology, companies will need specialists in the field of medicine and pharmaceuticals, genetic engineering, new professions will set the tone in the market.

Employers have already launched a real hunt for talents in so far unexplored areas: in the IT field, the demand for experts in blockchain and cryptocurrencies has sharply increased.

“Since there are practically no such specialists on the market, it is enough for applicants to simply state that they understand something about cryptocurrencies in order to get a highly paid job,” said Superjob.

This picture marks the beginning of another "hype cycle" - a surge of interest in certain specialties. The current cycle - this time with the prefix "blockchain" - will last, as experts suggest, for the next two to three years.

According to HeadHunter, the maximum salary increase that Russian employers are ready to accept next year is 10%. On average, wage growth will not exceed 5-7%.

According to recruiters, mass indexing can not be expected in January. Practice shows that usually the increase occurs in different periods - depending on financial indicators companies. “Many people decide to raise salaries in April, when the results of the first quarter have already become known,” Ignatova explains.

In Moscow, the growth in the number of real jobs will not exceed 10%, as the market is already saturated, and on average in Russia the number of vacancies may increase by 15-20%, and this, as recruiters assure, is rather a pessimistic forecast: in the regions there are still opportunities for growth.

Job Seekers in Tension

Analysts of "Romir" state: the market returns to pre-crisis indicators. This year, the proportion of Russians who changed jobs has dropped significantly to 9%, while only 2% of job seekers have faced layoffs or layoffs. In the previous two crisis years, this figure was 23%.

At the same time, as noted by leading companies in the field of online recruiting, applicants are now in suspense: people are increasingly afraid of losing workplace.

"Companies, for their part, are increasingly using tools such as KPI to measure employee performance and motivation," HeadHunter said.

About ten people are applying for one vacancy in Moscow, the average for Russia is seven to eight.

Experience decides

As early as last year, recruiters pointed out that companies are increasingly targeting people who want to improve. professional competencies, and not "take" the experience, now there was a certain reversal of the trend: experience is again an important criterion.

For this reason, the demand for young specialists has somewhat decreased: many companies do not have time to train them and, accordingly, pay for it.

This approach is another consequence of the crisis years. At first, companies tried to save money by recruiting young people, but this often did not work, so now experienced employees who play the role of mentors have become more in demand.

At the same time, employers are more willing to take those who have been trained: according to Superjob estimates, six out of ten internships for students and young professionals ended in an intern's job.

Moderated appetites

The situation on the labor market is also reflected in the demands of job seekers. There are fewer and fewer people who are ready to change jobs once every one or two years. Wage expectations have also subsided.

“If earlier applicants were offered five thousand rubles less, they did not agree to any. Now, almost every second person is ready to accept a lower salary, but the allowable reduction threshold is 5-10%,” HeadHunter shared their observations.

In parallel, there is a trend towards whitewashing wages. More and more of those who seek to find a job with formal employment. In 2017, the maximum number of those who disagreed with black wages was recorded, Superjob stated.

Will artificial intelligence shake the labor market, will companies need directors of labor, and when will offices disappear? How the market can change work force in the near future, read on.

Most of the changes we will see in the next five years have already begun to take place, but they will accelerate, - says Peter Andrew, director of job optimization at real estate agency CBRE. - The future is already here.

Large companies usually enter into office lease agreements for a period of 25 years or more. Based on this, realtors usually observe how various production processes in a particular company and in the premises that they rent. The CBRE Companies, together with real estate developer Genesis, interviewed experts, managers and employees from various offices around the world and found out the following possible scenarios for the development of the labor market in the future:

Artificial intelligence will take over all the routine work and not only

The majority opinion that robots will replace workers, for example, in warehouses and production lines, is being replaced by the assertion that machines will also be able to perform knowledge-based work. Computers learn to gather information and make rational decisions based on the data they analyze.

In some cases, they have advantages because people are bound by prejudices. For example, they tend to resort to risky behavior and underestimate the likelihood of negative consequences, notes Andrew. - Artificial intelligence excludes such an installation.

As a result of such innovations, some jobs may disappear completely. BUT world economy will not be able to constantly create new ones with the same speed as old jobs will disappear. Thus, humanity is waiting for a rather difficult period of adaptation to such changes.

Implementation advantage artificial intelligence in different kinds production is the liberation of people from routine and mechanical work in favor of more creative pursuits.

New profession - director of labor

The top management of many companies may appear new position- director of labor The duties of this specialist will include coordinating the work of the team (with an emphasis on creating a common corporate culture), attracting top talent and impact on production. In addition, the director of labor will look for best solutions in team relationships.

The disappearance of offices as such

The development of various technologies, according to experts, will necessarily lead to the fact that the desktop will simply disappear as a concept. Workers armed with laptops and tablets will be able to create jobs where they feel most comfortable. The usual lighting will most likely be replaced by LED, which will be different during the day - depending on how the light outside the window changes.

Thus, various business parks will appear in the world, such as Chiswick Park in England, main goal which is an affordable, well-maintained space ideal for both work and leisure.