Modern problems of science and education. Features of business planning in times of crisis Long-term planning in times of crisis
Orenburg State University
Korablina Anastasia Andreevna, undergraduate, Orenburg State University, Orenburg
Annotation:
The article discusses the specifics of strategic planning at an enterprise in a financial and economic crisis, examines the stages of strategic planning, and proposes the main indicator for a strategic goal in a crisis - the value of the company.
The article deals with the specifics of strategic planning at the enterprise in the context of the financial and economic crisis, the stages of strategic planning are explored, the main indicator for the strategic goal in crisis conditions is the company's cost.
Keywords:
strategic planning; financial and economic crisis; enterprise management.
strategic planning; financial and economic crisis; enterprise management.
UDC 338
The problems in the international monetary concept arose against the backdrop of the free pumping of the financial system with monetary symbols, not reinforced in any way by the commodity formation, issued first in the United States of America, Japan and the European Community, which provoked the promotion of negative lending rates around the world. Violation of the financial concept prompted a decrease in the value of the main assets - black gold, alloys, products of the chemical industry, and agriculture.
At present, all countries without exception are in a difficult state, and in the aspects of globalization, world problems will constantly affect the process of domestic events, which are complicated by characteristic internal problems.
With absolutely all this, in terms of decline, additional opportunities appear in order to extract large profits from investing in real estate. As a result of the impact of the crisis on the economy, the cost of housing in the Russian Federation and almost absolutely in all other states has significantly decreased. At the same time, this decrease in value in absolutely all alternatives is not interconnected with the influence of underlying factors that establish the need for real estate in the long term, which makes it possible to look for unvalued assets with important growth potential. With absolutely all this, the return on investment in such assets can significantly exceed the usual values during the stages of economic recovery.
As established, the position of the market depends on a large number of macroeconomic factors. The market sets the tasks for economic entities to survive, to ensure the continuity of their own growth.
The resolution of these issues associated with the formation and implementation of the company's competitive advantages is based on the study and introduction of certain strategies.
The impact on the nature of the resumption of the market after the crises is expressed by a variety of factors. In addition to the general state of the economy (GDP dynamics, economic stagnation, lack of work), such indicators play a significant role, as well as the income of residents and the interest rate on mortgages.
In this way, in a moment of crisis, strategic planning creates a requirement for the emergence of a set of important predetermining criteria for firms, guaranteeing a basis for making conclusions. The precise formulation of the firm's objectives can help establish more appropriate methods for achieving them and help reduce risk.
By receiving reasoned planning decisions, the firm reduces the threat of misdirection due to incorrect or unreliable data about the external situation. Strategic planning sets the company's strategic goals. The establishment and implementation of strategies refers to the level of difficult and complex managerial tasks that require not only a change in established business standards, but also the specific preparedness of managers who receive decisions on the prospective formation of a company.
Strategic planning is a process of practical work of management subjects. It makes it possible to eliminate large errors in the assessment of probable alternatives to market dynamics, the behavior of rivals and partners in the domestic and foreign markets.
All this is formed into a purposeful medium-term guidance document, including the concept of coordinated according to the terms of resources and executors of events that provide the result of the established project. The impact of the conditions of the volatility of the macro environment, which generates continuous changes in the market situation, explains the constant adjustment and refinement of the project.
It should be emphasized that strategic planning must refer to strategic guidelines that should be achieved in the future, and do not forget that the main dangers are present outside the company, and the company is able to predict threats and dangers up to the arrival of undesirable events and reduce losses if it is impossible to avoid them. .
In the concept of strategic planning, the assumption is not made that the future must certainly be better than the past, for this reason, in strategic planning, an essential role is given to considering the company's capabilities, which make it possible to detect trends, threats that can change established trends.
The vector of progressive formation of the company must be focused on strategic problems in order to be guided by target benchmarks, and operational correction to ensure the desired position of the company in the market. In this relationship, operational planning is considered a continuation and concretization of strategic planning.
The two main conditions characterizing the specifics of the strategy are:
The conditions of the sphere and competition, which are considered to be a reflection of the surrounding environment;
The internal situation and the competitive position of the company.
Industry and competitive analysis broadly includes the environment or macro environment of the firm, while situational research considers the specific environment or micro environment of the firm.
Managers are required to anticipate the strategic nuances of the macro and micro environment of the company in a timely manner in order to possess a strategic vision, be able to set key goals and create an effective strategy. The lack of such a view significantly increases the possibility of developing such a strategic plan, which will not fit the conditions in any way, will not create opportunities for obtaining competitive superiority and, most likely, will not improve the performance of the firm in any way.
When considering the position of a firm, there are 5 issues to focus on:
To what extent the current strategy is functioning well;
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the firm, what opportunities are open to it and what threats may appear;
Are the costs and prices of the firm competitive?
Is the firm's competitiveness strong?
What are the strategic goals for the company?
The evaluation of the strategy must be implemented, on the one hand, on the basis of high-quality characteristics (completeness, internal consistency, relevance to the situation), on the other hand, the best proof of the effectiveness of the company's strategy follows from the study of the financial characteristics of the activity, as well as the characteristics that determine the outcome of the implementation of the strategy. In particular, the indicators of the company's work have every chance to be:
The role of the firm in the field according to its market share;
Modification of the company's profitability, comparison with the characteristics of competitors;
Trends in the company's net profit and investment profitability.
An important step in considering the conditions of the company is considered to be a regular analysis of the stability of its competitive position in comparison with the position of close rivals. As a rule, the competitiveness of a firm must be based on its strengths and on the help of those areas in which the firm is competitively vulnerable.
The main elements of strategic planning are the establishment of the company's mission. This procedure is to establish the meaning of the life of the company, its purpose, significance and place in a market economy.
Formulation of goals and objectives. In order to display the nature and degree of business claims inherent in this or another type of business, terminology is used - goals and objectives.
Goals and objectives imply the establishment of the degree of customer service. They establish the motivation of the people working in the company. The target environment must have at least four types of targets:
Quantitative goals;
quality goals;
Strategic goals;
tactical goals.
Goals for the lower levels of the company look the same as tasks.
Analysis and evaluation of the external and internal spheres.
Scope analysis is usually the initial step in strategic management, as it provides the basis for both setting the mission and goals of the company, and for forming a strategy of behavior that allows the company to realize its own mission and achieve its own goals.
One of the main roles of each department is to maintain balance in the interaction of the company with the environment. Any enterprise is involved in the following processes:
Acquisition of resources from the external environment (access);
Transformation of resources into a product (change);
Providing a product to the external sphere (output).
Management is designed to ensure the balance of entry and exit. As soon as this balance is disturbed in the company, the company embarks on a course of dying.
Analysis of the environment involves the study of its three constituents:
macro environment;
direct environment;
The company's internal environment.
The analysis of the external environment (macro- and direct society) is focused on finding out what the company can rely on and what complications it can expect if it fails to prevent in time the negative attacks that society can bring to it.
The study of the macro environment contains the study of the impact of the economy, legal regulation and management of socio-political actions, the natural environment and resources, the social and civilized component of the community, the scientific and technological and scientific and technical formation of the community, infrastructure.
The immediate society is analyzed according to the following main components: consumers, suppliers, rivals, labor exchange. The study of the internal sphere reveals those opportunities, that reserve, on which a company is able to rely in a competitive war in the course of accomplishing its own goals.
The study of the internal sphere also makes it possible to better understand the mission of the company, to express the goal most correctly, that is, to establish the meaning and trends of the company's work. It is extremely important to keep in mind that the enterprise not only manufactures products for society, but also guarantees the likelihood of life for its own members, providing them with work, providing a chance to participate in profits, providing them with social guarantees.
The internal environment is analyzed further trends:
personnel reserve;
Enterprise management;
Finance;
Management;
Organizational structure.
Development and research of strategic alternatives, strategy selection. The formation of strategies is performed at the highest level of management. At this stage of decision making, alternative ways of operating the company should be assessed and the best options selected to achieve the set goals.
The company faces four main strategic alternatives: small growth, growth, slow growth, and a combination of these strategies. The majority of institutions in civilized states adhere to limited growth. Least of all, executives prefer a downsizing strategy. In it, the degree of goals pursued is set lower than that achieved in the past.
For many companies, the decline may indicate a course of rationalization and reorientation of operations. The strategic choice is greatly influenced by various conditions:
Risk (a condition for the existence of a company);
Understanding previous strategies;
The response of equity holders, who often constrain management's flexibility in strategizing;
The time factor, determined by the selection of the required stage.
The adoption of conclusions according to strategic problems can be realized according to various trends: from the bottom up, from the top down.
In the interaction of the two directions mentioned above (the strategy is developed in the course of interaction among top management, planning service and operational units). The development of the company's strategy as a whole is becoming increasingly important. This concerns the priority of the problems to be solved, the establishment of the structure of the company, the rationale for capital investments, the coordination and integration of strategies.
Thus, the main advantage of strategic planning lies in the greater degree of validity of the planned characteristics, the greater likelihood of the implementation of the planned scenarios for the formation of events.
The current pace of change in the economy is considered to be so significant that strategic planning is the only method of formally forecasting future challenges and potentials. Strategic planning guarantees the top management of the company resources for the formation of a plan for a long period, provides a basis for making conclusions, helps reduce risk when making conclusions, guarantees the integration of goals and issues of absolutely all structural divisions and performers of the company.
However, strategic planning in no way provides and is in no way able to provide, due to its essence, a reflection of the picture of the future. What it can offer is a high-quality representation of the capital that the company must strive for in the future, what position it is able and obliged to capture in the market and in business in order to answer the main question - will the company endure all the hardships or not in a competitive war . Strategic planning does not contain a precise method for the formation and implementation of the plan.
Its schematic concept is combined with a specific philosophy or ideology of doing business. For this reason, a specific tool largely depends on the individual properties of a particular manager, and in general, strategic planning is the coexistence of intuition and the ability of top management, the manager's ability to lead the company to strategic goals.
Strategic plans must be designed in such a way that they are not only cohesive over long periods of time, but also flexible enough to be transformed and reoriented as needed. A unified strategic plan should also be regarded as a program that orients the functioning of the company over a long period of time, providing for itself an account that the sharply conflicting and regularly changing business and social atmosphere makes continuous adjustments inevitable.
Correction of the strategic plan is needed only in the event of an important revision of the company's formation goals or an unpredictable change, primarily external circumstances, as a result of which the initially established formation goals can confuse management.
A certain alternative to correcting the strategic plan is to reduce the planning horizon. Moreover, this is advisable not only in the case of a high probability of an unpredictable change in external circumstances, but also in general for inefficient or in a volatile financial condition of firms. Experience has shown that firms that do well do little to change the rules for making judgments.
At the same time, firms with low profitability are highly prone to finding new directions for formation, which necessarily leads to a revision of previously established projects and established tasks.
Thus, the lower the profitability of the company and the more difficult its economic condition, the shorter the planning horizon should be, or the more often corrections should be made in previously approved strategic plans.
Given that the reliability of monitoring decreases as its time period expands, with the expansion of the planning horizon, the possibility of 100% hitting the confirmed planned characteristics decreases.
Management can be asked to fully implement (or at least implement with the least deviations) timely plans, but with annual (and even more so with long-term) planning, the discrepancy between actual results and control characteristics becomes inevitable. In similar circumstances, it is difficult to correctly assess the compliance of the actual results obtained with the goals that were set for the firm when approving the strategic plan.
Therefore, an important condition integrated assessment The results of the company's work are considered to be the correct establishment of the composition of benchmarks and standards for the planned period.
The task is to select from among a large number of characteristics (positions, articles) those key ones, the implementation of which must be indispensable for management. The greater the financial results of the firm, the more importance should be given to planning and control, and the greater the number of benchmarks must be applied.
Let us analyze the increase in the price of the firm as the main problem facing its management. In this case, strategic planning must include, firstly, tasks according to the price increase for the planned period, and secondly, planned indicators for the main factors (trends) that have a great influence on the increase in the price of the company.
As for the increase in the price of the company for the planned period, the setting of this problem (and a suitable calculation) must be based on the conditions for return on the invested fixed capital, which is presented to the owners. In this case, invested capital means the price of capital at the time of the planning period, and the return is calculated as the sum of capitalization growth and income acquired during the planning period. As a principle, the formation of certain performance characteristics, fixed capital reflects both the subjective hopes of investors and objective comparisons with the profitability of other financial instruments (including the risk component).
Achieving the set goal of increasing capitalization depends on a number of both economic and non-economic (socio-political) conditions. In accordance with this, in order to increase the value of the company, planned tasks are formed according to the main indicators that have a great influence on its value and depend on its marketing (taking into account the expected influence of non-economic factors). As well as the principle, such characteristics include an increase in the size of the business (profit, capital investments, etc.), return on capital, and, in addition, indicators of the maximum level of debt and expenses.
Bibliographic list:
1. Ansoff I. Strategic management. - M.: Economics, 1995.
2. Keynes D.M. General theory of employment of interest and money. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://www.gumfak.ru/econom_html/keins/keins06. shtml
3. Korotkov E., Kuzmina E. Genesis of management// Problems of theory and practice of management. - 2006. - No. 1.
4. Semelkin V.Yu. Planning as a factor in the effective functioning of an enterprise // Economics and Management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).
5. Syrbu A.N. Analysis of the position of the company in the formation of strategy // Economics and management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).
6. Economic theory. Electronic textbook. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://el.tfi.uz/ru/et/gl14.html
Reviews:
11/10/2017, 19:52 Sergey Yatsky
Review: In the article by Korablina A.A. and Bezsmertnov A.O. an attempt was made to identify the features of strategic planning at the enterprise in the conditions of the financial and economic crisis. However, the stated goal of the article has not been realized - there is no clear formulation of the features of strategic planning in a crisis. In addition, strategic planning cannot be without forecasting. The article does not even contain the word “forecasting”… Therefore, the article is not recommended for publication in its present form. Sincerely, Yatsky S.A.
In a crisis situation, most managers think about simply surviving - in difficult times, this is seen by them as the only possible strategy. However, more savvy leaders understand that it is precisely a period of complete uncertainty, when the financial and market environment changes almost every day, that provides a chance to make a serious strategic breakthrough.
It is to this cohort of leaders that Douglas Daft, CEO of Coca-Cola in 2000-2004, belongs. In 1997, when he headed the Asian division of the company, a financial crisis swept through many Asian countries. Assets were devalued, capital investments were frozen, panic was growing. It was at this moment, according to Daft, that it was necessary to think about what to do so that the company would emerge from the crisis even stronger than before. He gathered his managers and held several meetings with them. AT Eventually, after all, after the Second World War, Coca-Cola managed to find new growth opportunities in the devastated Western Europe and make one of its major breakthroughs in international markets.
Daft believed that the crisis is the best time to acquire assets and it is unforgivable to miss such a chance. It was then that Coca-Cola bought a bottling plant in South Korea, which helped it penetrate local family retail chains, and also strengthened its position in China, Japan and Malaysia. The company abandoned the previous principle of planning sales for individual countries and began to build a strategy for the Asian region as a whole. In addition, she purchased several local brands of coffee and tea. And one more thing - it rebuilt its entire supply chain, consolidating purchases of aluminum and plastic for bottles, coffee and sugar and revising their conditions.
It's not just large multinational corporations that can benefit from the recession. At the beginning of the Asian crisis, the South Korean Housing & Commercial Bank (H&CB) was a medium-sized state credit institution specializing in mortgage loans. The bank did not perform well, and its market capitalization did not exceed $ 250 million. But the head of H&CB, Kim Jung-tae, was a bright and bold-minded person. He knew that in times of crisis people are more willing to accept change and innovation, and he understood that he needed to seize this opportunity. Kim Jung Tae reformed the bank: he changed its organizational structure, strategy and work culture. In addition, the laws relating to mergers and acquisitions have been improved in the country. All this together allowed H&CB to merge with Kookmin Bank in 2001. Immediately prior to the merger, H&CB had a market capitalization of $2.1 billion, making it the first South Korean bank to list ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange.
How do companies manage to achieve such success in the conditions of general chaos? It follows from the above examples that it is important to understand that a crisis is not only a shock, uncertainty and new threats, a crisis is also unique conditions for radical and large-scale transformations. Far-sighted managers abandon stereotypes and try not to miss opportunities that would hardly interest them in a normal situation. Coca-Cola already knew that attitudes towards foreigners in local markets were changing and that the Asian crisis was opening up opportunities for the company that had never been seen before: it would have a chance to acquire tempting assets. That is, it was an ideal time to increase market share. H&CB took advantage of changes in legislation and the willingness of employees to change.
Out of bounds
Under normal circumstances, a company's performance—its business model and scope—depends on four factors: regulation, competition, purchasing behavior, and the organization's ability to grow. But in times of crisis, the picture changes dramatically and other factors are more important; if companies manage to seize the opportunity that has fallen, they occupy much more profitable positions in the market than before. By understanding the importance of these factors to the business and how they are likely to change during times of turmoil, top managers can prepare in advance to seize previously unavailable strategic opportunities during troubled times.
Law reform
Restrictions imposed by law, naturally, determine the essence of the business of most companies and the methods of its conduct. The lines of business allowed, the markets in which the company can operate, the types of products or services it is allowed to supply, the maximum market share allowed, etc., are all factors executives take for granted. However, during a crisis, restrictions are often eroded or even lifted.
For example, the South Korean Commission for the Control of Competition, which approves mergers, until 1997 was very tough on such transactions. However, when the government set out to rebuild the crumbling financial system countries, officials allowed hitherto unacceptable banking mergers. It was the legal change in 2001 that helped H&CB merge with Kookmin. The result was a financial giant like no other in South Korea's history: H&CB's share of the deposits market jumped from 11% to 26%, consumer loans from 29% to 44%, and corporate lending from 5% to 24%.
In addition, restrictions on foreign participation in business may be relaxed or completely abolished. For example, in most developed Asian countries, the permissible share of foreign participation in the banking sector has increased from 50 to 100% (Malaysia was an exception; see Chart 1). Approximately the same thing happened in other industries, thanks to which new prospects opened up for foreign players.
Changing legislation often unleashes hidden consumer demand, causing new industries to be created in the blink of an eye. During the 1994 crisis in Brazil, the government improved quite a lot the legislation regarding financial services for individuals. Under the new rules, mutual funds became legally independent from banks, and credit card issuers were allowed to work with several companies at once. As a result, the assets of mutual funds rose sharply - from almost zero in 1994 to $120 billion in 1996, and the volume of credit card transactions - from $10 to $26 billion. Companies ready for such changes ensured significant growth for themselves.
Changes in legislation during the period financial crises initiated not only from above. A lot also depends on the company. For example, in 1998, GE Capital got the Japanese government in the insurance legislation it needed when Japan wanted to stabilize the financial sector. As a result, GE Capital invested $1.1 billion in bankrupt Toho Mutual Life Insurance, and the government agreed to lower the interest rate on new policies from an unprofitable 4.75% to a better 1.5%. Managers should always consider the possibility of improving legislation, especially during a crisis and immediately after it.
Changing competitive environment
Industry leaders usually have more options to just ride out the financial storm. However, failure to pay interest, disruptions in supply chains, loss of creditor or investor confidence can quickly topple even the strongest, opening doors to new players and changing the balance of power in the industry. After the 1994 crises in Mexico and 1997 in South Korea, the lists of the top ten companies in these countries changed twice as often as usual. At the same time, consolidation increased sharply in many industries.
The financial services sector is hit hardest by the crisis. In 1994, three of Brazil's top 10 banks failed, and several state-owned banks were privatized, increasing industry consolidation and foreign ownership. By 2000, five of the top ten banks in the country were newcomers. Moreover, the assets of the ten largest foreign banks grew from zero to $63 billion (13% of all banking assets). In general, banks with foreign participation controlled almost 30% of the entire banking sector in Brazil - $133 billion of banking assets (see Chart 2). In Russia, roughly the same thing happened: five out of ten banks, which in 1996 were considered the largest, went bankrupt by 2001, and small local banks (like Alfa-Bank) grew to become the largest financial institutions. This situation has been repeated over and over again in many countries.
When small local companies burst at the seams, they are often bought by larger players, often foreign ones, who operate in many directions. Until 1997, virtually all cement in Southeast Asia was produced locally. Many of them turned out to be ineffective, and today most of them are owned by foreigners. Swiss cement giant Holcim has emerged as one of the strongest new players in the market. For almost ten years, the concern has been thinking about expanding its business in Asia. Holcim eventually bought major (in some cases majority) stakes in cement companies in Thailand (Siam City Cement), the Philippines (Alsons Cement and Union Cement) and Indonesia (PT Semen Cibinong). By revamping the management of these enterprises and changing the composition of their boards of directors, Holcim turned these rather weak companies into market leaders: for example, the market capitalization of Siam City Cement grew five times in the three years after the change of ownership. A similar scenario played out repeatedly throughout Southeast Asia.
The generally accepted principle is to postpone new investments and mergers and acquisitions until better times in a period of financial instability. But the experience of many strong companies proves otherwise. From August to December 1997, as financial chaos spread, Asia (apart from Japan) saw 400 deals totaling $35 billion, an increase of more than 200% over the same period the previous year.
Of course, it would be foolish to ignore the fact that during financial crises, mergers and acquisitions become much more risky. However, the deal can be structured taking into account new risks. In 1997, for example, Belgian brewer Interbrew was negotiating with South Korean Doosan to buy its brewing arm, Oriental Brewery. Due to market uncertainty and rumors of imminent changes in liquor laws, the companies have agreed to a series of contingent payments to hedge against changes in the value of the asset. Interbrew bought a 50% stake in Oriental Brewery with additional payouts for certain changes in the industry or tax laws. Thinking creatively, the leaders of Interbrew and Doosan reached a mutually beneficial deal.
Changing buying behavior
If people lose their jobs and even more so their savings, their consumer needs change. Then retail chains-discounters and manufacturers of inexpensive goods are in the most advantageous position. When the Indonesian middle class was rapidly growing, interested in global brands and products High Quality, the local discounter chain Ramayana was having a hard time. But the company's position began to improve when the national currency, the rupee, fell sharply, and after that the population tightened their belts. The Ramayana management reacted to the situation in the following way: it was decided to keep the same prices, offer more products in small packages and focus on inexpensive essential goods - vegetable oil, rice, etc. in the assortment. Overall sales in the country have declined, but Ramayana's annual sales growth was 18% by December 1998 - and this is in the midst of a crisis.
According to McKinsey research, consumer attitudes towards new financial products, new distribution channels and foreign organizations have changed in many Asian markets since 1997 (see Chart 3). In particular, in 1998-2000. this was clearly manifested in terms of loans. For example, the share of consumers who think it is "unwise" to take out a loan has fallen from 46% to 26% in South Korea, from 52% to 42% in Malaysia, and from 55% to 45% in the Philippines. Not surprisingly, after this, a credit boom began in many countries - in 1998-2001. consumer loans increased by 30% in South Korea and by 129% in China. Demand also changed in other sectors of the economy.
People gradually begin to perceive foreign companies differently. In 1994, only 47% of South Korean citizens were positive about foreign direct investment, and in March 1998 it was already 90%. People have realized the country's need not only for foreign capital, but also for the technology and management practices that foreign companies bring with them. The newly elected President of South Korea, Kim Dae-jung, managed to convince his compatriots of the benefits of foreign investment. He cited the example of the financial and automotive industries in the UK: although the British own only a few companies in them, they provide the country with many well-paid jobs. This argument worked, and from 1997 to 1999, foreign direct investment inflows into South Korea rose from $7 billion to $15 billion. Foreign companies, which react quickly to such changes in the minds of consumers, can skim all the cream.
Organization reform
For leaders ready to take bold steps, the crisis offers a chance to radically change the corporate culture and methods of work: shareholders, employees and creditors realize the need for change, and resistance to it weakens. It is then that far-sighted leaders can rebuild the entire system of power, bring the size of the organization to optimal size, root a stronger culture of efficiency, and resolutely abandon outdated dogmas.
Let's take H&CB. During the crisis of 1997-1998. its head, Kim Jung Tae, carried out an unprecedented reform of the entire organizational structure. First of all, he approved for the company high targets efficiency (ROA 1.5% and return on equity 25%) are the same as those of the American bank Wells Fargo and the British Lloyds TSB. Kim said that H&CB "could become a world-class bank and become one of the top 100 commercial banks in the world in three years" - a very audacious goal for a small and very ordinary South Korean bank. Nevertheless, financial instability played into Kim's hands: in three months he reduced his staff by 30%, and during the first year he himself received a salary of only 1 won (less than 1 cent) - the rest of his income was options for the company's shares. This practice was uncharacteristic for South Korea.
Over the next two years, Kim initiated more than 20 performance improvement programs in areas such as pricing strategy, consumer credit scoring systems, and customer experience. To increase the responsibility of banking units and the transparency of their work, he reorganized them, shifting their focus from servicing a specific territory to serving customers. The salary of employees has become more dependent on the effectiveness of their work, and the bonus system has been revised. It was simply impossible to imagine these radical reforms before the crisis, but during the crisis all interest groups recognized their legitimacy. As a result, H&CB was able to achieve high performance targets in just two years.
Ayala, a Philippine firm that is over 170 years old, has always been proud of the social guarantees it provided to employees, namely, that they were assigned to them for life workplace. But during the crisis of 1997-1998. the company's management realized the need to update the staff in order to remain competitive. The company took the unprecedented step of offering a voluntary layoff program.
Over and over again, we see how the crisis is pushing managers and shareholders to reconsider their previous management methods and catch up to the world level in management, reporting and work with personnel. Companies that manage to implement such reforms are likely to take the lead in the post-crisis recovery.
Don't miss the moment
To turn the crisis situation to your advantage, it is not enough just to realize that the rules of the game have changed and you need to look for new opportunities. For example, if under normal conditions a company can slowly, for more than one month, “sort things out” with a distributor, it shows slow ones, but also generously rewards those who act quickly and flexibly.
The fastest are often the first to enter new markets, the future of which is even more than vague. It takes courage, but the prize for the winner is worth it. Lone Star Funds was the first to buy distressed banking assets in South Korea. In December 1998, with a handful of investors bidding, Lone Star acquired its first NPL portfolio from Korean Asset Management Company (KAMCO) for just 36% of its book value. The deal seemed very risky. Stephen Lee, head of Lone Star's South Korean office, said: “Nobody has yet assessed the liquidity of these assets in the market before us. It was almost impossible to conduct a control examination.” Nevertheless, the deal turned out to be profitable and the portfolio brought in a very substantial annual income. During the next KAMCO auction in June 1999, 14 investors already bid, and prices jumped.
In order to develop a strategy in such conditions, you need, as they say, to be able to turn around and quickly reassess the state of affairs after each next significant change. The most far-sighted leaders conduct such reassessment weekly, if not daily. Managing a company during periods of instability is difficult, but we must not forget about the transformations necessary for the future of the company. We need to figure out how to take advantage of the situation - before competitors do it.
Financial crises shock and paralyze not only countries but also companies and often push them to the bottom. However, true professionals perceive instability differently - as a change of scenery for their business - and try to use the moment to the maximum advantage. Keeping calm in the chaos and confusion, constantly monitoring important legislative, financial and political changes, the most talented crisis managers find new sources of growth in adverse circumstances.
After the merger, the new bank was named Kookmin Bank.
Before the 1997 crisis, there was only one merger in the banking sector; in many respects, it was unsuccessful, since labor legislation did not allow banks to seriously reduce costs.
Banco Centralo do Brasil data.
Inkombank, Menatep, Mosbusinessbank, SBS-Agro and ONEXIM.
See Rajan Anandan, Anil Kumar, Gautam Kumra, Asutosh Padhi. M&A in Asia // The McKinsey Quarterly, 1998, No 2, p. 64-75.
Studies of the attitude of South Koreans towards foreign investment in the country's economy, conducted by the Korea Development Institute in 1994 and 1998.
See: Pupil Who Has Learned Enough to Tutor // Financial Times, March 21, 2002; Foreign Direct Investment in Korea // KPMG, September 2001.
A government organization that buys distressed assets of banks and other financial institutions with a view to their subsequent resale.
Dominic Barton- Director of McKinsey, Seoul
Roberto Newell- former McKinsey employee, Miami
Gregory Wilson- Partner at McKinsey, Washington
Most business planning work deals with the preparation of a business plan under the normal conditions of an enterprise. The most common option is the formation of a business plan to attract investment. Anti-crisis business planning is considered much less often, but it is necessary no less often, and a business plan in a crisis is very different from planning routine work.
In a crisis situation, the company's management does not have time to work out in detail each item of the plan, all decisions must be made within a strictly limited time frame. Hence the first requirement for the process of developing an anti-crisis business plan is the speed of preparation. At the same time, the thoughtfulness and rationality of the prescribed provisions should exceed the plan drawn up in a typical situation.
The preparation of an anti-crisis business plan should begin with an analysis of the causes of the current crisis. In fact, their neutralization is the first goal of anti-crisis management. The sooner this process begins, the faster and easier the organization will be able to overcome the crisis. The main requirements for the diagnostic process are listed below: representatives of all departments of the enterprise should take part in identifying the causes of the current crisis and drawing conclusions; in the analysis, attention should be paid to all revealed facts, including those that seem insignificant; diagnostics should be prompt; for each identified bottleneck» it is necessary to formulate (at least indicative) solutions.
After the diagnostics, a report should be drawn up, revealing the causes of the crisis. You should not make this document too voluminous - it is enough to outline the main trends, which will be enough to understand the current situation, set goals that will allow you to get out of the crisis, and develop operational decisions (how management will achieve goals). The result of the planned actions depends on how clearly, accessible, and on time the goals are formulated. It is important to correctly convey the formulated goals to those people who will be involved in their implementation. The goals must be achievable, and it is very important not to allow either underestimation or overestimation of requirements.
Depending on the situation in which the enterprise is located, it is necessary to decide for what period a business plan is drawn up. A feature of anti-crisis business planning is that the plan should be drawn up for a minimum period. This does not mean that anti-crisis business planning cannot be long-term. It's just that in a crisis the plan will have to be reviewed more often than in normal economic conditions. Thus, the implementation of the overall strategy will be distributed over several small periods. At the same time, intermediate plans can and should be adjusted, while the strategy must remain constant. As A. Daile notes, “in difficult times, the expected values should be determined monthly” Daile A. The practice of controlling. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 2003. - S. 52 .. Of course, following a single goal should not be brought to the point of absurdity - it is quite possible that external and internal conditions change to such an extent that it becomes easy to focus on the originally set task unacceptable. Quite often in the works on business planning there is an opinion that in Russian conditions the planning process is complicated too quickly and often changing business environment conditions. A. Daile writes: “Planning is necessary just when a lot is changing. If everything remains the way you are used to, it is enough to simply transfer past trends to the future. Of course, with the help of planning it is impossible to prevent the occurrence of deviations, to predict unforeseen situations, or to direct past events to the line of planned development. But the advantages of planning lie elsewhere: by comparing the actual indicators with the planned ones, we get the opportunity to intervene in what is happening, regulate it, and provide corrective action in order to keep the enterprise on the planned course. If plans had not been developed, it would not have been possible to see how much current events deviate from what they originally wanted to receive. Deviations are signals that allow for improved regulation and that should be interpreted from a meaningful point of view as a help or service function that allows additional learning” Ibid. - S. 53.
When the causes of the crisis are identified, strategic and operational goals are formulated on their basis, we can assume that the company's management is ready to draw up a business plan. One or two people should be directly involved in its development.
Drawing up a business plan in this case means the systematization and structuring of information obtained at all levels of management, and not an exhaustive set of works, including independent search and data processing.
After identifying the causes of the onset of the crisis and setting a strategic goal, the management of the enterprise should appoint qualified employees who will be involved in the formation of a business plan. Their task, first of all, should be to raise questions for managers of structural divisions and draw up a business plan, and with the active participation of colleagues who provided them with the analyzed information. Thus, planning is carried out a small amount employees, but representatives of all strategically important departments take part in it. It is better for managers to be given some freedom of action - they should be able to make their own proposal. It is worth telling employees not how they should do something, but agreeing with them what they should achieve. Such a business plan will turn out to be more versatile and creative, and, therefore, the result of its implementation will be the best.
For whatever purpose a business plan is drawn up, first of all it is necessary for the company's management and middle management. The fact is that during the analysis and written presentation of information, the planned actions are rethought and their optimization takes place. As V.P. Savchuk, “... the plan is the end result. However, the process of its development is valuable in itself. First, planning forces the financial manager to consider the cumulative effect of investment decisions along with the results. financial solutions. Secondly, planning forces the financial manager to study events that may hinder the success of the company and stock up on strategies that are considered as a fallback response in case of unexpected circumstances. Savchuk V.P. Financial management enterprises: practical issues with the analysis of business situations. - Kyiv: Publishing House "Maximum", 2001. - S. 87 .. The anti-crisis business plan should first of all help the company's managers in the implementation of their functions. Hence the next requirement for it: all information must be clearly structured and presented in the most convenient form for perception. The more calculations are done in the enterprise and the more simulation models are used, the less transparent planning becomes. Thus, it is not the number of business plan pages that matters, but their content. The general requirements are the same as in normal conditions - accessibility and simplicity of presentation, sufficiency, reliability and reliability of information.
In a crisis, this requirement takes on special significance due to the extreme conditions of activity and the lack of time to make a decision.
Considering the importance of management decisions made in a crisis, failure to implement a business plan can lead to a breakdown in the overall strategy of anti-crisis management. Therefore, a competent business planning system plays a decisive role in the anti-crisis management system Solntsev I.V. Formation and implementation of a business plan to bring the enterprise out of a crisis // Management in Russia and abroad. - 2006. - No. 5. - S. 12 ..
The XIV All-Russian Forum "Strategic Planning in the Regions and Cities of Russia" took place in St. Petersburg. The main topics of the event were the reconfiguration of the strategic planning system in connection with the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ and the problem of resource support for strategies and their linkage with the budget process.
Strategies and Reality
Exactly one year ago, summing up the results of the 13th Forum of Strategists, we talked about the crisis faced by the ideology of strategic planning in the new economic and political conditions. The deepening economic recession against the backdrop of sanctions, as well as the collapse of the national currency, made previously adopted forecasts and strategies irrelevant. Moreover, the activities of authorities at all levels have practically lost their strategic "dimension". It can be stated that over the past year the level of uncertainty has not decreased at all. Experts speak of a general decrease in activity in the development of strategies, a further reduction in the real planning horizon. Obviously, strat-planning is going through hard times.
A certain illusion of progress is created by the work that began in connection with the adoption of Law No. 172‑FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”. The drafters of the law still hope that it will make it possible to implement the long-standing idea of a clear hierarchy of federal, regional and local strategic documents linked by timeframes, tasks and indicators. However, this pyramid still lacks a key - upper - tier. Chief Economist at Vnesheconombank (and in the recent past - Deputy Minister of Economic Development, in charge of strategic planning) A. N. Klepach stated that the main strategic document of the country - the Concept of long-term development of the Russian Federation until 2020 - was already outdated by the time of its adoption, since this happened at the height of the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. There is no need to talk about the relevance of the CRA-2020 in the realities of 2015 at all. According to the economist, this document still retains its significance as an exponent of certain strategic approaches, goals, as an “image of the desired tomorrow” (apparently, the same can be said about other unrealizable strategies: you can’t work on them, but at least they make us think about where we are going).
However, the relevance of this "image" also raises questions. As Klepach himself noted, it is not entirely clear to what extent the current operational decisions that the government is forced to make in a crisis (primarily spending cuts) have strategic implications. Do they mean that we no longer adhere to all previously identified strategic priorities (including, for example, those contained in the May decrees of the President of the Russian Federation)? “It is clear that plans now need to be adjusted. But the question is different: are we going to fulfill them in principle? Have we simply deviated and will return to the chosen trajectory in the future, or are we basically going the other way?” - this question was put by the chief economist of Vnesheconombank.
Prospects for Law No. 172-FZ
“After the previous crisis, many were under the illusion that, despite all the problems, the budget would still allow us to implement a variety of priorities. However, now the resources have become really scarce, and without a strategic planning system it will be impossible to properly distribute them, ”said the Secretary of State - Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation O. V. Fomichev. He acknowledged that in the past two or three years, long-term development goals have increasingly been sacrificed for short-term ones. “Within the framework of the current policy, we cease to focus on making decisions that would ensure our long-term development. The task of the strategic planning law is to finally begin to build short term policy based on long-term priorities,” the official stressed.
In its first year of operation, the law does not appear to have done much in this regard. So far, at the federal level, efforts in terms of stratification are focused more on the adoption of regulatory legal acts in the development of Law No. 172-FZ. Six government resolutions have already been adopted, nine more are to be adopted by the end of the year. According to Fomichev, a problem has emerged: although the law describes in detail the hierarchy of the strategic planning system, it does not provide for the adoption of an act that would regulate the procedures for developing the numerous documents provided for in it and thereby ensure their mutual coordination.
Fomichev said that his ministry has already begun preparations for the development of a strategy for 2030 - the main document of strategic planning in accordance with the law. The Ministry of Economy of Russia created working group, there are even some preliminary versions of the strategy concept. Nevertheless, there is an instruction from the Government of the Russian Federation to approve the strategy no earlier than 2017. Probably, the government took into account both the general economic uncertainty and the need for a large-scale study of this document with the expert community.
President of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation V. N. Knyaginin gave a brief description of the full cycle of strategic planning in accordance with the new law. “First, we make forecasts, strategies follow from the forecasts, on the basis of the strategies, the main directions of the activities of executive authorities are adopted, then state programs, and from them follow medium term plans which fully rely on the budget. The law requires us to voice problems, set goals, decompose them into tasks, tie resources to them and receive a system of indicators that can reflect the achievement or non-achievement of the goals,” the expert said.
According to Knyaginin, the hierarchy of strategic documents provided for by law is its most controversial and difficult innovation to implement. He refers to the general problems of the emerging system of strategic planning as weak forecasting, which, in theory, should be the starting point of any strategy, as well as incorrect formulation of goals. “Strategies should be focused on solving problems, and not on providing a certain amount of state and municipal services. So far, very often we receive “purchasing” strategies and budgets,” the expert noted. He also stressed that strategies can only work in principle if they are leadership strategies or backed by a team. Otherwise, they remain on paper.
Responding to Knyaginin's statement about the shortcomings of forecasting, Klepach explained that the difficulty for forecasts and strategies is the "suspended" nature of many previously made decisions. “Thanks to the mechanism of conditionally approved spending, up to a third of the federal budget is not distributed among departments, but remains at the disposal of the Russian Ministry of Finance, which allows it to respond to the economic situation. This is not possible in forecasting. Some decisions are immediately laid down there and their consequences are assessed,” the economist said. An example is the recent decision to index pensions by 4% instead of the planned 12%. “Not only the parameters of the budget depend on this, but also such indicators as the growth of real incomes of the population, the level of demand for 2015-2016,” he added.
Regional opinion
Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia do not deny that the practice of implementing the law on strategizing can be assessed not earlier than in a few years, when the full cycle of strategizing has passed. Nevertheless, the regions, when developing their strategies, are already trying to focus on the new law. So, according to the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan A. A. Zdunova, the law helped formalize the work on the regional strategy, properly structure it to ensure communication with state programs, and through them - with the operational level of decision-making. The strategy of Tatarstan provides for a separate section with a list of state programs. The strategy, as well as the plan for its implementation, has already been adopted, so the necessary changes are being made to state programs.
Having waited for the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ, the Tomsk Region also began to develop its strategic documents. In March 2015, a regional law on strat-planning was adopted, and in May, the regional development strategy until 2030 was approved. “We have come to understand that the strategy is more of an interdepartmental tool, especially a regional one. The first thing to be achieved is the coordination of all participants in the strat-planning process and the tools at their disposal. In our case, the coordination of industrialists and transport workers was of great importance, ”said the chairman of the committee for strategic planning and program-targeted management of the Department of Economics of the Tomsk Region E. A. Bugaeva. According to her, the regional strategy attempts to solve two problems: to implement the priorities of federal policy in the region and municipalities, and to link all the tools of ministries and departments and investment plans of large corporations in one document. As a problem, Bugaeva noted the lack of a mechanism for taking into account regional priorities at the federal level, as well as the “infrastructure” for identifying regional points of growth.
Resource problem
Perhaps the most painful issue for those involved in strategies in recent years has been the synchronization of strategic and budget planning processes and the resource provision of adopted documents. This problem, to put it mildly, is far from its solution. So, it turned out that we cannot adequately predict the amount of resources that we will have at our disposal in just a few years. As the former Minister of Finance of Russia recalled A. L. Kudrin, during the development of the CRA-2020, there were active disputes about what indicator of average annual GDP growth should be included in the strategy - 6% or 4%. As a result, the average GDP growth in 2008-2015 was about 1%. “This makes a huge difference in terms of the resources we can count on. Maybe even earlier they should have been redistributed in some other way, for example, focusing on reforms that would eventually allow for more serious growth,” Kudrin said.
So, on the one hand, in principle, Russia lacks strategies that are backed by resources. On the other hand, long-term budgeting itself is in better shape. State programs, viewed as a bridge between budgets and strategies, are also not entirely unrealistic - according to Kudrin, today they are formulated as if additional resources will appear from somewhere for their implementation.
According to the Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation A. L. Vedeva, the law on strategic planning has not actually come into force and the planning cycle in accordance with it will be launched only in 2017, after the development of the 2030 strategy. In his opinion, the strategy development process has slowed down due to the crisis. “The situation inclines everyone - both the expert community and the government - to develop short-term forecasts, not forecasts for 5-10 years. In the current conditions, it is difficult to plan on the principles of strategic management. With all the desire to keep the strategic direction of development, we must adapt to crisis processes and use operational planning tools,” Vedev said. According to him, now it is important to set new guidelines for the medium term, in accordance with which the development of long-term programs for the development of the country will proceed. At present, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is developing a baseline (most likely) scenario; conservative, taking into account adverse external conditions to a greater extent; and target. The target scenario involves the transition Russian economy to sustainable growth at a rate no lower than the world average, a reduction in inflation to the level of 4% and an increase in labor productivity by at least 5%. “The main concept of the target scenario is to increase the efficiency of the economy by stimulating investment demand by reducing current consumption,” Vedev emphasized.
Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia A. M. Lavrov believes that when planning budget resources, it is necessary to adhere to the base scenario, and when planning the activities of government bodies within the framework of state programs and strategies, the target one. This means that different variants of the forecast must simultaneously exist. At the same time, the achievement of the goals of strategies and state programs should be based primarily on regulatory instruments and only then on resources.
According to Lavrov, in Russia the transition to the program budget has so far taken place only formally. State programs were adopted mainly in 2012 and no longer correspond to anything: “On average, they are provided with funding by no more than 60-70 percent. Each budget cycle of the state program has to be squeezed into these budget constraints. We refuse some events, some we reduce,” Lavrov explained. Klepach called a profanation a situation in which state programs are essentially adjusted to an already adopted budget without changing their target indicators. According to Lavrov, the Russian Ministry of Finance proposes to re-approve state programs, but this requires a general strategy for socio-economic development: without it, it is difficult to choose priorities, formulate goals and objectives of state programs. The second necessary condition is an understanding of the amount of available resources. The function of their description should be fulfilled by the long-term budget forecast up to 2030. As the deputy minister emphasized, this forecast must necessarily provide for ceilings on the expenditures of state programs.
According to the director of the Institute for Public Finance Reform V. V. Klimanova, a combination of budget planning and long-term planning of socio-economic development is necessary, but there is an insurmountable theoretical contradiction between these two processes. “On the one hand, strategizing should be aimed at development, on the other hand, the financial body should at some point indicate the presence of budgetary constraints and restrain the setting of tasks that are not provided with a resource base. But, again, if ambitious goals are not set when drawing up strategies, then there will be no development. No matter how many structures we create, this contradiction will still remain,” the expert noted. According to his observations, so far very little attention has been paid to the problem of resource constraints in strategies at various levels, including in the new strategies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adopted in accordance with Law No. 172-FZ.
Klimanov also recalled that in 2013 the Russian Ministry of Finance had already made an unsuccessful attempt to set strategic financial guidelines with the help of spending ceilings for all state programs. If this cannot be done even now, then, according to the expert, the entire ideology of strategic planning will fail. The same will happen if the government does not abandon the one-year budget and continue to work on raising the horizons of budget planning.
It cannot be ruled out that in the new economic conditions, the ideology of strategic planning is expected to be transformed, and limited financial resources will lead to the abandonment of the hierarchical models familiar to Russia, which are more suitable for a planned economy and oriented towards top-down distribution. The need to use more flexible approaches was also discussed at the Forum of Strategists. Thus, Klepach recalled that in Russia the idea of strategic planning was born by regions and municipalities, their practice and desire to live not only for today, and suggested building a system from below. A similar opinion was expressed by the governor of the Tomsk region S. A. Zhvachkin. In his opinion, an attempt to build a vertical system of strategic planning breaks down on the economic diversity of Russian regions.
PROBLEMS OF PLANNING AT ENTERPRISES IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE CRISIS OF THE MARKET ECONOMY
Victor Artemevich Zhuravlev
Siberian State Geodetic Academy, 630108, Novosibirsk, st. Plakhotny, 10, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of Land Management and Real Estate, tel. 8 913 892 85 10, e-mail: [email protected]
The article deals with the problems of making planned decisions at enterprises in the conditions of the market economy crisis in Russia.
Keywords: business, current and strategic planning, crisis,
financial success, enterprise, consumer, products.
PROBLEMS OF CORPORATE PLANNING UNDER MARKET ECONOMICS CRYSIS CONDITIONS
Victor A. Zhuravlyov
Assoc. Prof., Department of Land Management and Real Property, Siberian State Academy of Geodesy, 10 Plakhotnogo St., 630108 Novosibirsk, phone: 8 913 892 85 10, email: [email protected]
The problems of corporate planning decision-making under the market economics crisis conditions in Russia are considered.
Key words: business, current and strategic planning, crisis, financial success, enterprise, consumer, production.
In market conditions, each enterprise (firm, corporation, company, plant, factory) is an open production and technical system associated with certain relationships with the external environment.
In market conditions, the enterprise must timely determine the upcoming scientific, technical, organizational, economic, socio-political and other types of environmental impact (both negative and positive) and make appropriate planning decisions. This significantly changes the attitude towards the enterprise management system, since organizational management schemes should take into account not only the nature of strategies, the type of structures, planning and control procedures, but also the promptness of the management response and the readiness of the enterprise personnel to adequately respond to environmental changes than to provide guaranteed financial well-being of the object of control.
Enterprises as open systems can be simple (small firms), complex (medium-sized companies) and super-complex (large integrated corporations). Each enterprise has certain capabilities, therefore, its management system should ensure the most efficient use of available resources (fixed, circulating, labor), as well as
create conditions and prerequisites for the consistent growth of the enterprise's potential.
Thus, for successful functioning, each enterprise must simultaneously perform two main functions:
Ensure the solvency of the company through effective current activities;
To increase the potential of the enterprise by updating technology, production capacities, products (services), i.e., to develop the enterprise, than to ensure that the internal environment corresponds to the tasks facing it.
For the simultaneous performance of these functions, it is necessary to maintain a balance of compliance with the allocated resources, operational (current) and strategic objectives of the enterprise.
Excessive activation of the development of the enterprise (a large range of updated products, frequent changes in technology, radical innovations, etc.) requires large investment costs, and current activities from the sale of products are not able to provide the necessary solvency in short term.
As a result, debt obligations (both short-term and long-term) grow, reasonable proportions between own funds (capital) and debt obligations are violated, and the enterprise finds itself in a crisis situation (possible bankruptcy).
Otherwise, when only current activities are provided and no attention is paid to development, the enterprise can function successfully in the short term, but may lose its competitiveness in the long term, as sales volumes and market share decrease, and its financial stability sharply decreases, and it moves to bankruptcy.
Thus, for the successful fulfillment of the functions of current activities and the development of an enterprise, it is necessary to carry out effective planning of all types of its activities.
Enterprise planning is a tool for designing the desired future and effective ways his achievements.
When forming a system of intra-company planning, it must be taken into account that in market conditions all economic entities develop cyclically, that is, at certain periods the enterprise may experience a decline, or depression, or an upturn or steady growth.
The cyclic nature of the state is due not only to the action of the crisis of the external environment, but also to internal factors.
Each recession has a negative impact on the economy not only of enterprises, regions, countries, but also on the life of society.
During a crisis situation that occurs due to a violation of the balance of supply and demand for products that has developed in the market, which in turn leads to stagnation in the development of enterprises, increases unemployment and worsens the previously achieved standard of living of society.
At the same time, the crisis situation is a catalyst for the revitalization of activities in all directions, in order to overcome the crisis and ensure subsequent growth, it is necessary to take into account the cyclical nature of the development of the economy.
In order to take into account cyclicality in the planning process, it is necessary to have an idea of the factors influencing the cyclical development. To learn how to manage an enterprise in a cyclical development, it is necessary to take into account not only the features of growth and decline curves in these crisis cycles, but also to know the factors (external and internal) that affect the ability to manage an enterprise.
External factors include:
The state of the market and the position on it of the object of management (enterprise);
The general state of the economy of the country, region, industry to which the enterprise belongs;
The level of solvent demand of consumers;
Position of suppliers;
inflation rate;
The interest rate for a bank loan.
The dynamics of changes in these factors can greatly affect the economy of the enterprise, and the enterprise itself is not able to influence them.
Managers of enterprises should monitor such changes and adjust their activities taking into account changes in external factors.
To internal factors affecting economic development enterprises include:
Personnel potential;
Condition of fixed assets (equipment, etc.);
The volume of working capital;
The amount of debt obligations (short-term and long-term);
The level of utilization of production capacities;
Progressiveness of the technologies used;
The level of compliance in the adequacy of the development of the production infrastructure with current tasks;
The operational ability of production to update products.
Internal factors the management of the enterprise can manage, and therefore they must be developed taking into account the cyclical development of the external environment.
Every company experiences fluctuations financial condition depending on the management decisions made due to changes in the situation in the external environment. These fluctuations also occur in the event of a violation of the equilibrium state between current and strategic activities.
So in the process of mastering new products and advanced technologies at the enterprise, there is a transitional period when the inevitable
a decline in the economic performance of the enterprise, and then, when the enterprise adapts to innovation, the period of mastering innovations and staff training ends, and the economic condition of the enterprise improves, since it is already at a qualitatively new level of adequate correspondence with the external environment.
All innovations focus the enterprise on a product policy that meets the needs of the consumer of products and on adaptation to a changing external environment. The art of leadership in making planned decisions is determined by the understanding of this correspondence.
Since each stage of the development of an enterprise requires investments, it is necessary that in the course of current activities resources are accumulated for subsequent development, i.e., the economic and financial potential is increased, and it is used to develop the competitive advantages of products.
Thus, in the planning process, it is necessary to take into account not only the current activities and opportunities for increasing the potential of the enterprise, but also take into account the cyclicality due to the economic, technological, product, and organizational stages of the development of the enterprise.
Intra-company planning is an organic element of the management system and affects all aspects of the enterprise.
Since planning is the process of designing the desired future and effective ways to achieve it, the end result of such a process is to strengthen the competitiveness of products for confident subsequent purposeful activities of the enterprise in the market.
Planning decisions are interconnected with a set of organizational, technical, economic, financial and social decisions and take into account the necessary conditions for the development of the enterprise at the present time and in the foreseeable future.
Like any process, planning is carried out continuously through iterations, bringing the planned solution closer to the real new capabilities of the enterprise. Thus, the planning process is aimed at determining the conditions under which it is possible to achieve the desired state of the planning object, determined by the strategy and tactics of the enterprise development.
The disadvantage of the current planning practice in the formation of the budget is the predominant attention to current tasks. As a result, the prospective activity of the enterprise remains without proper attention and funding. To avoid this situation, in the planning process it is necessary to ensure a balance between the strategic and current orientation in the activities of the enterprise.
To solve this problem, planning is divided into a dual system with two independent action plans (strategic and current) and dual funding (separate budgets - current and strategic).
The tasks of the current budget are:
Ensuring continuous profit from the use of the existing capacities of the enterprise;
Current investment of resources in increasing capacity;
Cost reduction costs.
The strategic development budget is characterized by:
Investments in the development of product policy and increasing the competitiveness of products;
Market expansion;
Investments in the diversification of production.
The need to develop a strategy and tactics for the development of an enterprise determines the use of strategic and tactical (current) planning for their implementation.
The entire set of plans is present in the activities of the enterprise, however, the formation of each of them has its own characteristics in terms of the level of detail, the degree of aggregation (enlargement) of information, the set of indicators used, targets and other differences.
From the point of view of responsibility for the formation and implementation of plans, each level in the management hierarchy has its own type of planning.
Thus, the highest level of management (top management) is responsible for the mission of the enterprise, development strategy, strategic goals and strategic planning. In this regard, the management structure should be built in such a way as to separate the general management as much as possible from the solution of current tasks.
The middle level of management carries out functional management and is responsible for tactical - current planning, although it participates in the formation of strategic plans.
An enterprise operating in a market economy is exposed to the external environment, in which there are rapid changes caused by various factors - changing market conditions, saturation of sales markets, the emergence of new goods (services).
The ongoing changes increase the degree of uncertainty in making operational planning decisions, and consequently, the economic risk in achieving the planned results increases.
Under these conditions, the enterprise needs to have guidelines for moving forward, that is, to have a current development strategy. The lack of a strategy leads to the fact that every structural subdivision the enterprise begins to look for its own ways out of this situation, not consistent with the overall strategy of the enterprise.
In this situation, the role of the marketing service sharply increases, which should:
Activate the promotion of goods and revive the demand for products;
Provide information to management about the problems of consumers of products and the actions of competitors;
Indicate areas for enhancing efforts in the interests of consumers.
The presence of a strategy allows for more targeted and interconnected strategic planning, which reduces material and financial losses in achieving strategic goals.
In planning the activities of enterprises, various approaches are used, the main of which are:
Matrix planning of production costs based on the matrices "costs - output" (Leontiev's model) and normalized unit costs of resources;
Optimal planning, which includes an objective function, a set of restrictions in the forming planning decision according to the degree of satisfaction of a given criterion (profit, etc.);
Adaptive planning, taking into account the dynamics of enterprise resources and the consistency of enterprise goals when choosing planned solutions.
The planning process consists of:
Estimates of the real capabilities or potential of the enterprise at the time of the decision;
Determining the necessary conditions for achieving the set goals in a given period of time;
Making a planned decision, which includes a set of measures that ensure the achievement of set goals with the effective use of the enterprise's potential.
The size of enterprises, the scale of production, the range of products (services), the complexity of products, the intensity of updating the production of products (services) impose their own limitations and determine the features of planning.
In a small enterprise, almost all management functions, including planning, are carried out by the entrepreneur (owner) due to a lack of financial resources.
Depending on the type of business, the production program can be:
wholesale trade- procurement plan;
Service sector - volume of ordered services;
In the tourist industry - the volume of sales of vouchers;
In the scientific and technical business - the volume of orders for R&D (development);
In consulting firms, the volume of orders for consulting services.
Common to all types of business is the planning of the volume of trade. On the basis of these planning documents, working capital and fixed assets necessary for the implementation of the production program are calculated, a system is formed wages and work motivation.
Planning in small firms is carried out in conditions of significant financial and credit constraints, so development plans depend on the financial and credit capabilities of the firm.
Increasing the financial potential of the company will contribute to the planning of costs and working capital, since the saving of all types of resources and the effective use of the existing potential of the company are the sources of economic growth of the enterprise and the basis for the transition to a medium-sized business.
Medium business (up to 500 people) is characterized by a large turnover, and the losses from incorrect planning decisions become more tangible. In this regard, the level of analytical work on planning financial, economic, marketing, production and personnel activities objectively increases in relation to small businesses.
The marketing plan becomes the basis for planning other activities, that is, only after determining:
Market capacity;
Possible distribution channels;
Calculation of the expected sales volumes for each type of product, taking into account competition, you can develop the rest of the plans.
It must also be borne in mind that with an increase in turnover, the degree of uncertainty in achieving final results increases due to higher competition, and therefore the level of economic risk increases, which must be taken into account in the planning process.
In a medium-sized business, the boss is the entrepreneur (general director) and he already delegates the performance of certain management functions and the definition of activities to the appropriate managers:
Marketing;
Financial and economic management;
By production;
Personnel management, etc.
Professionals who own modern technology of management, decision-making and business conduct are involved in the work. However, the functional management groups themselves are small in number.
Strategically, they become topical issues growth of assets and authorized capital as the basis for increasing collateral guarantees and, accordingly, expanding the opportunities for attracting investments for
company development. Aspirations are being developed to increase the market share, the absorption of firms, and the development of a network of dealers.
Thus, practically all procedures and mechanisms of professional in-house planning become necessary in medium-sized businesses.
In a large business based on the concentration of capital and the integration of structures, intra-company planning is essential element company management.
Large companies have both advantages and disadvantages.
The benefits include:
Large production capacities;
High technical equipment;
Large range of manufactured products;
Relatively low unit costs;
The possibility of obtaining superprofits;
financial stability;
Great Opportunities production of competitive products;
Unity of scientific and production processes;
Greater social protection for staff.
The disadvantages include:
Organizational inertia of structures;
Complex communication links;
Large number of management personnel;
Weak adaptation and reaction to a fundamentally new
Products (conservatism in innovation);
The complexity and duration of management decisions.
In large companies, planning difficulties are due to:
Diversity of products;
The dynamics of product renewal, which leads to an increase in the degree of uncertainty in management production systems;
The need to take into account the impact of economic risk.
Large complexes should plan:
The goals of the company are both strategic and tactical;
Development of the company's potential;
Nomenclature and volumes of products;
Master planning.
Large complexes are more susceptible to intra-company economic fluctuations due to the impact of innovation cycles, technological and organizational cycles of development. Concerning
the planning system should take into account not only specific cycles, but also the relationships between them and their impact on the planned results.
Financial planning, as the resulting component of the system of plans, presents certain difficulties due to the need to take into account the impact of all areas of planning activity on financial results. A special place in the financial activities of the complexes belongs to the planning of cash receipts and payments, the formation of sources of investment in the development of the company.
Given the large number of employees in integrated companies (tens and hundreds of thousands of employees), the most important area of planned work is social planning, which provides for the growth of opportunities for social protection of workers and the creation of favorable socio-psychological conditions for activity.
Small, medium and large enterprises, as well as various forms integration of enterprises require a planning mechanism appropriate to their status, subject to general principles management and management requirements.
Given the current crisis state of the market for making planned decisions in the product policy of enterprises, we can formulate the following general recommendations:
1. Do not detail the strategy, but form general directions with a consumer focus.
2. Strategic events take place not only on the basis of sound information, but also on the basis of chance (crisis).
3. The way to effective planning in an unstable environment is the presence of strategic goals and flexible management of deviations.
4. Do not take a large-scale decision that can bring the organization to the brink of bankruptcy, look for a way out of this situation, and in this case, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of bankruptcy.
5. Realize that any planned decision is inevitably probabilistic. The probability of error remains, no matter how carefully the decision is justified.
6. It must be remembered that the implementation of decisions depends on the person and the human factor always takes place, and its intervention can lead to unforeseen consequences, often contrary to our expectations.
7. Complement the process of forming planned decisions with a conscious search for favorable opportunities in any situation. Look for answers to questions: what is not good? what doesn't make sense? why? what to use?
8. Information is the main strategic advantage. Do not spare funds for the creation information base and for research (scientific and technical, financial and economic, marketing, etc.).
9. When making planned decisions, observe the interests of all participants in the implementation of these decisions. This will help reduce the difficulty of making decisions and avoid conflict situations. Know how to lead
negotiation. This is a means of resolving conflicts and finding an area of coincidence of interests with partners.
10. Make friends with cost sheets, balance sheet, budget. This will allow you to become an active participant in improving the financial stability of the enterprise.
11. Learn from competitors, not just defend against them. Use the market's reaction to competitive moves as one of the most reliable ways to study the market.
12. Remember that big problems are best solved by breaking them down into smaller ones. Large-scale problems seem invincible, while gradual steps are feasible and fruitful.
13. Prioritize issues and goals.
14. Stay in control of what matters most - results. Define the boundaries of the solution space and the range of possible changes in the planned indicators.
15. Keep the achieved capabilities of infrastructure units and in crisis situations, provide them with the opportunity to work on external environment. The task of matching the actual need for services to units engaged in core activities can be solved not only by reducing staff.
© V.A. Zhuravlev, 2012
