Agro2b is an information and analytical portal in the field of agriculture, a trading platform, a social network for farmers. Grain harvest breaks records: will it affect bread prices Grain harvest forecast
The Ministry of Agriculture raised its forecast for the gross grain harvest this year to 127 million tons, acknowledging that the harvest could beat the Soviet-era record. According to the head of the ministry, Alexander Tkachev, until recently, the department was cautious in its assessments due to adverse weather conditions in a number of regions:
“But today, 85% of the sown area has already been harvested, almost 122 million tons have been harvested in bunker weight. And we can say with confidence that a record harvest will be harvested, perhaps in the entire history of Russia - and, of course, the Soviet Union, ”
On September 23, President Vladimir Putin announced that "it looks like there will be a record harvest again." Tkachev, in turn, recalled that at the moment the record in Russia was recorded in 1978, when 127 million tons were harvested. (excluding Crimea).
“This year we will beat this record, I have no doubt,”
the minister expressed his confidence.
According to Tkachev, 40-45 million tons will be sent for export this season. To date, exports have already exceeded last year by a third: more than 10 million tons of grain have been shipped, including almost 8 million tons of wheat.
“In a favorable situation on the world market, we plan to export almost 45 million tons, including 30 million tons of wheat. We hope that this year Russia will once again become the world leader in wheat exports,”
Tkachev emphasized.
Grain market experts predicted that this year's grain harvest could exceed the level of last year (120.7 million tons) back in mid-July, when the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture were at the level of 100-105 million tons. grow sharply and currently exceed 130 million tons. Thus, over the past week, the analytical company ProZerno increased its forecast by another 2 million tons to 134.1 million tons, including 81.9 million tons of wheat (in 2016 - 73.3 million tons), 20.3 million tons of barley and 16 million tons of corn, and the Rusagrotrans analytical center - by 1 million tons to 133.3 million tons, including 82.3 million tons of wheat. The forecast of the SovEcon analytical center is 133 million tons, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) is 131-134 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 28, 123.4 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were threshed in bunker weight, which, taking into account 5% refraction, means about 117 million tons in net weight. Harvesting has been completed on 86% of the area, the average yield is 30.4 centners per hectare against 26.1 centners per hectare on the same date in 2016. Including for wheat, which is already threshed in the country from 91% of the area, the yield exceeds last year's figure by 17%, barley, harvested by 93%, by 20%. So far, corn has been harvested from just over a quarter of the area, its yield is now lower than last year by 8% and is 48 centners per hectare.
Transportation compensation
To stimulate grain exports, the Ministry of Agriculture proposes this year to subsidize rail transport of grain for export from remote regions. According to Tkachev, the corresponding draft resolution has been prepared and the money for this purpose has already been found:
“It (the draft resolution) is being coordinated with the authorities concerned,”
After the government meeting, the minister confirmed to journalists that subsidies for transportation are planned to begin in October. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 3 billion rubles are needed to compensate for export transportation, which, as previously reported, will allow exporting about 3 million tons of grain from Siberia, the Urals, the Volga region, and the center of Russia.
“Taking into account the lack of demand for grain in these regions, the price was always underestimated by a ruble or two, and this made grain production not very efficient, not very profitable in these territories, and this is no less than about 70% of the grain produced in remote areas. from the center and southern ports territories",
- said the official quote by RNS).
Including thanks to grain exports of agricultural products by the end of 2017 can grow to $20 billion.
“Last year, it amounted to $17 billion. That is, this is a significant increase, and this indicates our export potential not only for grain, but also for meat, vegetable oil, and sugar,”
Tkachev summed up.
The new price stabilization mechanism proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture looks more reasonable than interventional purchases of grain, Andrey Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical center, said earlier. At the same time, according to him, Russian ports are already fully loaded:
“Exports are now going as fast as possible. And even if we ship for free, there will be no more ports from this. Therefore, in the short term - in the coming weeks, or even months - using such a mechanism, it will not be possible to remove grain from the market, ”
The fact that the infrastructure is operating at full capacity and therefore it will be extremely difficult to increase exports, Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the analytical company ProZerno, also agrees. However, according to him, the zeroing of duties is likely to lift falling grain prices:
“To what extent, it is still difficult to say. However, this will not relieve the tension on the offer of grain: they will not export more, even if it is cheaper,”
Earlier, the Board of Russian Railways, for its part, decided to establish a discount of 10.3% on tariffs for export transportation of grain from a number of regions to Russian ports. The reduction factor will apply to transportation from the Voronezh, Orel, Tambov, Orenburg, Saratov, Novosibirsk, Omsk regions from October 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018. It will cover the transportation of wheat, rye, oats, barley, corn, rice, buckwheat, beans, peas, beans and other grain cargoes. In addition, on September 15, the government approved the rules for subsidizing the costs of transporting agricultural products from the central regions of Russia to Siberia and the Far East. As Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich stated, compensation for part of the logistics export costs will first work as a pilot project: in 2017, the mechanism will be tested on individual companies, “and next year there is an opportunity to deploy it fully.”
Wheat quality improved this season
According to federal center assessing the safety and quality of grain, 39.9 million tons of grain and leguminous crops have been examined in bunker weight, which is 41.5% of the gross harvest in 47 regions. The share of food wheat by September 21 was 68.2% (23.2 million tons), including 21.8% for grade 3 wheat and 0.1% for grade 2 wheat.
“In general, the quality is better in terms of classes than last year,”
- Yulia Koroleva, director of the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, stated at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18.
Taking into account the fact that harvesting continues in Siberia and the Volga region, by the end of the harvesting campaign, the percentage of wheat of the 3rd class will remain higher than last year and may amount to 25% of the total harvest.
"Last year, 3rd grade, we had no more than 22%",
she recalled.
Thus, in the Krasnodar Territory, the 3rd grade accounts for 14.9% of the crop, which is almost twice as high as last year's figure (7.9%), in the Crimea - 9.1% against 5.4% in 2016.
The SovEcon Analytical Center predicts the final share of 3rd class wheat this season is slightly lower - at the level of 23-23.5%. However, taking into account the expected record harvest, the “increase” in the volume of wheat of the 3rd class compared to last year will be significant and may amount to 3 million tons.
“With a forecasted wheat harvest of 83 million tons, the volume of wheat of the 3rd class can be 19-19.5 million tons against the estimated 16.3 million tons,”
SovEcon says in a statement.
Also, improvements in performance compared to last year can be expected for wheat of the 2nd class.
"Now the second class is revealed a small amount of— about 0.1% of the total gross harvest. But we understand that now Siberia, the Volga Federal District will give a noticeable increase in quality”,
The Queen noted.
According to the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, by mid-September, the 2nd class was detected in the Tula region (1.2%), the Tambov region (0.7%), the Stavropol Territory (0.2%), the Ulyanovsk region (0.14% ) and the Krasnodar Territory (0.08%).
“There is no second class in Siberia yet, but I think it will be. We expect,
The Queen expressed her hopes.
In general, in the Volga region, wheat of the 3rd class accounted for 24%, 4th - 32%, 5th - 44%; in Siberia - 59%, 29% and 12% respectively. In the Southern Federal District, the share of food wheat was 72%, the North Caucasus - 89%, the Central - 57%, the North-Western - 94%, the Urals - 46%, the Far East - 2%.
“As for the grain damaged by the turtle bug, we have better grain quality than before. Now such cases have been detected mainly only in the Center and in the South, and this figure is still much lower than last year. The only thing I would like to say is that maybe these indicators will change. Although this is not expected in Siberia, it will also be quite clean in the Volga region, ”
The Queen counts.
As for the quality of exported wheat, at the beginning of the 2017/18 season, the export structure changed somewhat.
“Less is shipped for export of wheat of the 3rd class - less than 6%”,
The Queen pointed out.
In the same period of the last agricultural year, this figure was twice as high - 14.2%. At the same time, in July-August, the share of exports of wheat of the 4th grade increased from 83.1% to 84.5%. Among the exported wheat, the 5th grade in July-August accounted for 9.7% (in 2016 - 2.7%).
“If Egypt traditionally buys the 4th grade, then Turkey reduced the quality of the purchased grain: there was a change in favor of increasing the 5th grade to 37%, while it became slightly less than the 3rd grade - 17.5. The average share of protein in exported wheat in the first two months of the 2017/18 season was 12.3%.
The Queen explained.
As the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin reported to the President, now there are “just perfect weather conditions for harvesting”:
“And the yield is at a level higher than last year, and the number of losses has also seriously decreased.”
The Ministry of Agriculture gives a disappointing forecast for the 2018 harvest
At present, the laying of the future crop is underway, and today the forecast for the next year is disappointing, said Petr Chekmarev, Director of the Crop Production Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18:
“With winter crops, sowing was delayed until autumn - in the Volga region, in the Central Federal District, although now they managed to catch up due to the south. There is a delay in harvesting - plowing, tillage is delayed, which is also not a plus, ”
In addition, according to the head of the department of crop production, the weather this year is not conducive to a high harvest in 2018.
“Due to the rains this year, nutrients were washed out, the temperature is lowering, microbiological processes in the soil are weaker. Therefore, the fertile part next year will not be quite pleasant for the next harvest, ”
he noted.
At the same time, he recalled that crop failures often occur after seasons with a high gross yield.
“And next year doesn’t bode well for a good harvest yet, so this year we need to have stocks for next year,”
Chekmarev concluded.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture, by September 21, winter crops were sown on an area of 10.0 million hectares, or 57.5% of the projected area (in 2016 - 10.1 million hectares). Harvesting work on grain and leguminous crops has been completed on 80.9% of the sown area, 117.7 million tons of grain in bunker weight have been harvested with a yield of 30.9 centners per hectare (in 2016 - 26.5 centners per hectare).
As Chekmarev noted, the harvesting campaign is currently underway in difficult weather conditions:
“It's raining, especially in Siberia, where harvesting is going badly. In the Northwestern Federal District, the situation is also not very good. Well, in the near future they promise snow in these regions, this also complicates the situation in harvesting,”
In addition, in his opinion, one should not expect a high harvest this year for corn, which is currently harvested on 19% of the area:
“The corn let us down this year because there was not enough heat for the corn to form a good yield, despite the fact that there were very good varieties,”
In 2016, according to Rosstat, the corn harvest reached a record high of 15.3 million tons.
In Russia, 69% of arable land is used
In Russia, on average, 69% of arable land resources are exploited, while in the world, the average use of arable land is 
80%, noted the head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Snitko at the VI industry business conference Russian Crop Production - 2017/18:
“In key regions where Russian arable land is concentrated, the picture is very uneven. A number of regions, in principle, have already reached a fairly high level of arable land use. For example, Altai region, Rostov region and, of course, Krasnodar region. There are even such precedents that show that the area of sown arable land is greater than the rewritten resources of arable land.
Thus, 98% of arable resources are sown in the Krasnodar Territory, 91% in Tatarstan, 88% in Bashkiria, and 83% in Altai Territory.
According to Snitko, in Russia, the area of arable land in most regions was declining until 2007, when the minimum was passed:
“After that, the area gradually began to grow.”
Despite this, only three regions by 2016 managed to increase the sown area to the level of 1995 - the Amur and Kursk regions, as well as Adygea.
“At the same time, six regions were found where arable land has been falling since 1990 and is still falling. These are the Arkhangelsk, Yaroslavl, Tver regions, Udmurtia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory,
Snitko said.
The leaders in terms of the volume of unused arable land are the Volgograd region, where almost 2.8 million hectares of arable resources are not sown, the Saratov region (2 million hectares) and the Orenburg region (1.8 million hectares). In general, the Southern Volga region today, according to Snitko, has the greatest potential for investment in the crop sector: the return potential of arable land is estimated at more than 7.5 million hectares. At the same time, the logistics capabilities of the Volga River can be used to export products, and integration with the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan also has an export potential, the expert noted. Also, the expert believes, in the near future investors will be interested in the north-western part of Russia - first of all, for the development of the dairy sector and organic farming.
“In my opinion, among the regions that in the near future will be of interest for investment in the crop sector are the Orenburg and Saratov regions, the Altai Territory, the Tula and Moscow regions, the Yaroslavl region and, perhaps, some regions Far East. Firstly, these regions have recently burst into the ranks of the best regions in terms of investment climate, and especially the Moscow and Yaroslavl regions should be noted here. In addition, these regions have a fairly good financial position»,
Snitko noted.
The price of land for agricultural production in the country, according to the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank, ranges from $ 1.5-2 thousand / ha in the best regions to $ 200-500 / ha in more arid areas.
The total area of unused agricultural land in the country is estimated at 40 million hectares. In July 2016, Russia entered into force the federal law who improved the land acquisition procedure. In particular, the period after which a land plot can be withdrawn from the owner if it is not used for agricultural production has been reduced from five to three years. The seizure procedure is initiated by the Rosselkhoznadzor, which transfers the materials to the regional executive authorities, and they must apply to the court with a request for seizure within a month land plot and its sale at public auction. As Head of the Ministry of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev reported earlier, in 2016, decisions were made to withdraw 10,000 hectares of unused land, four times more than in 2015. The region with the largest amount of seized land turned out to be the Moscow region - here the owners lost 2.58 thousand hectares of unused land.
The progress of the harvest and the high grain yield this year forced the experts of the grain market to revise their previous forecasts of the gross harvest. The new grain harvest estimates are higher than last year's record of 120.7 million tons. But a high harvest threatens farmers with falling prices.
Analytical Center Experts CJSC "Rusagrotrans" raised the forecast for gross harvest immediately to 127-129 million tons from previous assessment at 118.3 million tons.
According to the center, the forecast for wheat harvest increased to 78-80 million tons from 74 million tons, barley - up to 18.5-19 million tons from 18 million tons, corn - up to 16-16.5 million tons from 15.5 million tons. tons.
"It is clear that I will increase the grain harvest forecast, and there are all prerequisites for both wheat and corn", said CEO center "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko.
Now his forecast for the gross harvest is 122 million tons, including 74 million tons of wheat. The expert promised new estimates this week.
As V. Petrichenko explained, the reason for the increase in the forecast is, first of all, the high yield of grain and leguminous crops. "The yield this year will be a record one, besides, the sowing area has grown, the supply of grain will be greater", - he said.
According to V. Petrichenko, yield records are based, in particular, on "increasing the technological background of grain production: every year more funds are invested in the industry, which allows the use of high-quality seeds, plant protection products, and efficient equipment."
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of August 14, the grain yield in Russia amounted to 40.3 centners per hectare against 33.1 centners per hectare on the same date last year. In particular, in the central regions, the yield reached 45.2 centners per hectare against 37.4 centners per hectare a year earlier.
At the same time, V. Petrichenko noted that the high harvest was the catalyst for the fall in grain prices. Last week, a negative signal also came from abroad. "The USDA August forecast (US Department of Agriculture - ed.) of world balances of grains and oilseeds produced the effect of an anti-bomb for the world market conditions, — he said . “The main surprise in the wheat balance sheet was the very steep revaluation of gross harvests in the Black Sea region, which turned out to be much higher than expected.”. Thus, the forecast for wheat harvest in the Russian Federation was increased immediately by 5.5 million tons, to 77.5 million tons, in Ukraine - by 2.5 million tons, to 26.5 million tons.
Meanwhile, the forecast for the harvest of wheat in Australia, which is a major world producer and exporter of grain, has not changed. Crop estimates in the countries of the Western and Southern Hemispheres are even reduced.
According to ProZerno, last week the largest price drop was recorded on the 5th grade wheat market. In the center, prices for this grain fell by 550 rubles, to 6,717 rubles per ton, in the Chernozem and Volga regions - by 285-310 rubles, to 6,810 and 6,775 rubles, respectively, in the south - by 185 rubles, to 8,050 rubles, in the Urals - by 140 rubles, up to 7,013 rubles. In Siberia, where mass harvesting will begin later, by 65 rubles, up to 7,133 rubles per ton.
The center has become a leader in terms of the rate of price decline for grades 3 and 4 wheat. Here, it immediately fell in price by 285 rubles (up to 9,300 rubles) and by 315 rubles (up to 8,017 rubles), respectively. The fall in prices accelerated in other regions as well, with the exception of Siberia.
Barley and corn fell most of all in the Volga region - by 240 and 350 rubles, to 6,763 and 7,700 rubles per ton, respectively. "Prices will keep going down", Vice President predicts of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut.
"There is a lot of new grain, besides, there are carry-over stocks, - he said. — Exports in August are good. True, it is difficult to talk about world prices - speculative factors may appear on the stock exchange, but the short-term prospect is still down. The growth rate of world grain production is higher than the growth rate of its consumption".
The Grain Union raised the forecast for grain harvest this year to 124 million tons, including wheat - up to 77.5-80 million tons. "But everything will depend on how the harvesting goes in Siberia. It happens that snow falls there in the last week of August. The further we go with the growing season, the greater the risks"- said A. Korbut.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture still keeps the forecast of grain harvest this year at the level of 103-105 million tons. True, the head of the department, Alexander Tkachev, does not rule out that, under favorable weather conditions, the harvest may exceed 105 million tons.
MOSCOW, August 22 - RIA Novosti, Maria Saltykova. Russia this year can set a new grain record: according to experts, the harvest will grow to 125-130 million tons and more. The Ministry of Agriculture still gives much lower figures, but, according to the head of the department, Alexander Tkachev, in September the state will have to start restraining the decline in grain prices with the help of purchasing interventions. Will this affect the price of bread - in the material RIA Novosti.
Will the new grain crop break the 40-year record?
In 2016, the grain harvest in Russia amounted to 120.7 million tons - almost very close to the historical record of 1978: then 127 million tons were harvested in the country. According to official forecasts, in 2017 the results will be somewhat worse: farmers will be able to harvest no more than 105-110 million tons of grain. This was stated by the Minister Agriculture Alexander Tkachev in an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel. Despite this, the Ministry of Agriculture is already planning grain purchase interventions in September "in the event of all sorts of jumps up or down in price."
All experts interviewed by RIA Novosti consider the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture to be too low. Thus, the Prozerno analytical agency believes that the harvest will grow to 130 million tons of grain and more, said Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the agency. In his opinion, this is due to ideal weather conditions.
At the beginning of August, the Sovecon analytical center assumed that the harvest would reach 125 million tons, and this week the forecast would be revised upwards. A similar opinion is shared by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR): according to analysts, the grain harvest will grow to 124-127 million tons, including wheat - up to 77-80 million, barley - up to about 18 million and corn - up to 15 million.
Manufacturers estimate their capabilities lower, but they still do not doubt that they will beat the record of last year. "The harvest will be less than 130 million tons, but more than last year," Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, believes. The National Union of Grain Producers believes that the harvest will be "at the level of 120 million, maybe a little higher," said Union President Pavel Skurikhin.
Why will bread prices not be affected?
“In the price of a roll that is on the shelf, only 20% is the cost of grain,” explains Skurikhin. The main part is the costs of the bakery and the margin retail network, "which is often very high". "Prices for grain on the market have already repeatedly decreased, but this has never led to a decrease in the price of bread," Arkady Zlochevsky said.
But also the prerequisites for the growth of the cost bakery products not now, the price is stable, according to the Research Institute of the Baking Industry. "There are mass varieties - they are relatively inexpensive, there are varieties with various additional ingredients - they are more expensive," said the Deputy Director for scientific work Research Institute Vladimir Martirosyan.
According to both experts, annual inflation will continue to affect bread prices. If there are no shocks for the ruble by the end of the year, the price will not change, Martirosyan noted.
According to Rosstat, bread prices increased by an average of 5% in the first half of the year, and by 0.1-0.2% in the first week of August.
Will something give Russia world leadership in grain exports?
Export of grain this year will increase to 40 million tons, Alexander Tkachev said in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel. According to experts interviewed by RIA Novosti, this is realistic before the end of the year. Petrichenko from Prozern names 47-48 million tons.
The forecast of the Sovecon center is slightly lower. "The other day we increased it from 40.3 million tons to 43.5 million tons of grain in general, which is a record," said Andrei Sizov, director of the center. Last year, 37.7 million tons of grain were exported.
"The export forecast, according to IKAR, is 39-41.6 million tons of grain, including 29.5-31.5 million tons of wheat," said Yevgeny Zaitsev, a leading grain market expert. According to IKAR experts, exports to the countries of South-East Asia may grow this year. In 2016, Russia exported wheat to 86 countries of the world. The largest volume of deliveries fell on Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Yemen, Sudan, Iran, Morocco, Lebanon.
Producers, meanwhile, are complaining about old problems: there is nowhere to store grain, and world prices and prices for domestic market are declining. “It is worrying that against the backdrop of a high harvest, the state does not start purchasing interventions. Prices are already falling: last week alone we had a decrease from 150 to 400 rubles - depending on the types of products, this is 5-7% per week,” — notes Skurikhin from the National Union of Grain Producers.
According to Sizov, the Ministry of Agriculture should have already started intervention - after prices fell below the level announced in March. At the same time, according to the expert, the intervention mechanism itself is archaic and inefficient: its impact on the market can be considered minimal. The problem with grain storage, according to IKAR, is now becoming acute in the regions of the Volga region and in the Central Federal District. “There is not enough capacity, and the harvest of vegetable crops is approaching - corn, seeds, soybeans, this creates additional stress,” Zaitsev added.
) updated its forecast for grain harvest this year, increasing it by 2.5 million tons to 131-134 million tons. The previous estimates, announced last week, were at the level of 128.5-131.5 million tons. the absence of negative weather "surprises" in the eastern regions of the country, analysts say. As explained " Agro-investor" leading expert IKAR Evgeniy Zaytsev, high estimates of production are based on the results of the main producing regions, where record yields were recorded. So, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the Rostov region, the yield of grain and leguminous crops this year increased by 10% to 39.8 centners per hectare, in the Krasnodar Territory - by 4% to 62.9 centners per hectare, in the Stavropol Territory - by 2 % up to 43.3 q/ha. In the Urals Federal District, the yield is 19% higher than last year (21.8 centners per hectare), in the Siberian Federal District it is approximately at the level of 2016 (17.9 centners per hectare).
First of all, the increase in the expected gross harvest was due to wheat, the harvest of which IKAR forecasts in the range of 81-84 million tons (the previous forecast was 79-82 million tons). In 2016, wheat production amounted to 73.3 million tons. At the same time, the estimate of wheat exports was increased from 30-32 million tons to 31-33 million tons. The total export of grain, according to experts IKAR, will amount to 41.5-44 million tons. “A further increase in the forecast for the export of wheat and grain in general seems unlikely due to infrastructure and other restrictions,” notes IKAR.
Analytical Center " Rusagrotrans also specified the grain harvest forecast for this year. According to analysts, it will amount to 132.3 million tons against the previous estimate of 127-129 million tons. Wheat yield increased from 78-80 million tons to 81.1 million tons, barley - from 18.5-19 million tons to .3 million tons, the forecast for corn production is maintained at the level of 16.5 million tons. Rusagrotrans”, the grain harvest in the South and North Caucasus will increase compared to last year by 3.4 million tons to 49.3 million tons, in the Volga region - by 2.9 million tons to 27.4 million tons, in the Center - by 4, 3 million tons to 32.1 million tons, in Siberia - by 0.4 million tons to 15.5 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for grain exports remains at the level of 43 million tons, clarified " Agro-investor» head of the analytical center « Rusagrotrans» Igor Pavensky. “Taking into account peas and flour, it is quite possible to export up to 44.3 million tons,” he added.
Earlier, to 130.7 million tons of grain (including 80.1 million tons of wheat, 19 million tons of barley and 16.3 million tons of corn), the analytical company " ProZerno". “The maximum harvest in history was recorded in 1978, when 127.4 million tons were harvested. That is, even if we take into account the Crimea, 130 million tons will still exceed that record volume,” said “ Agro-investor» CEO « ProZerno» Vladimir Petrichenko. Think Tank Assessment " SovEcon- 127.6 million tons, including wheat - 78.9 million tons, barley - 19.4 million tons, corn - 16.4 million tons, grain exports are forecasted at 44 million tons.
Ministry of Agriculture maintains its forecast at the level of 110 million tons of grain. Pyotr Chekmarev, head of the plant growing department, explained such expectations by the fact that a sharp cold snap is observed in a number of regions of Central Russia, the Volga region and the Urals, weather forecasters predict rainy weather, which can lead to a decrease in crop yields and difficulties with harvesting. However, experts believe the ministry's assessment is too conservative. “Now the weather, rather, can affect the timing of harvesting, its complexity (the grain will crumble, they will not have time to harvest everything, etc.), as well as the quality of the grain,” Zaitsev believes.
By August 31, 94.9 million tons of grain were harvested in Russia in the originally recorded weight, grain and leguminous crops were harvested from 57.5% of the sown area. 67.1 million tons of wheat, 17.2 million tons of barley, and 232.8 thousand tons of corn for grain were harvested. 188.8 thousand hectares, damage at direct costs is estimated at 2 billion rubles.
After last season's record wheat harvests, forecasts for new season gradually reduced by many analysts, which affected many countries of the world. Against this background, the price of wheat went up, and this supported Russian exports. In fact, the Agro-Industrial Union of Russia notes, the situation is beginning to take shape in our favor - the forecasts for the harvest are good, old stocks are being actively sold.
The reason for the sharp increase in world prices, the organization said, is both negative weather conditions and a reduction in forecasts for the new season wheat harvest, which led to an increase in quotations for American, European, Australian wheat, as well as wheat from countries South America. However, experts admit, there is also a speculative growth in Chicago, which stimulated neighboring wheat sites. The growth of quotations is not yet confident, which is complicated by the assessment of the dynamics of demand for such expensive grain, as well as the possibility of reducing the stocks of the old crop accumulated over the past season in many countries.
For Russian market so far, there is a tendency to strengthen prices for grain, and especially in the Southern Federal District. Since harvesting in Russia in most regions this season will be carried out a little later than last year, the price of the new (as well as the old crop) has not yet fully strengthened. Domestic grain prices are supported by export prices for new crop grain (10,400-10,500 rubles/t) and for old crop grain (10,800-10,900 rubles/t)
The results of exports in June exceeded the figure of June last year, despite the complication of export relations with Russia's key partners in the world market and the activation of other countries in the world market. Export of grain from 1 to 30 June 2017 amounted to 2,012.2 thousand tons (against 1,208.25 thousand tons for the same period last year. Even the weather, which turned out to be much colder than last year, did not spoil the situation.
Yes, Alexander Raksha, partner of the NEO Center consulting group, admits that the situation on the wheat market rarely develops so well for our exporters: the harvest of last year and this year is also becoming more expensive, plus a record 2017 wheat harvest is expected, 74 million tons against also a record 73.3 million tons in 2016. At the same time, if we analyze the world market, then in general, wheat production on the planet this year will decrease by about 1.8-2%, and will amount to about 738 - 744 million tons. Thus, we find that the volume of wheat produced in Russia is approximately 1/10 of the world volume, which, moreover, is declining.
This means, the expert explains, that the first of two decisive factors will be the competitive environment in which Russian grain traders will operate on the world stage, whether there will be any obstacles from developed countries, which themselves are expected to have record harvests: for example, Germany . One of the largest and most unpredictable players in the wheat market is China: it will produce about 131 million tons of wheat this year, and it has the same amount in carry-over stocks.
To know if he will splash these volumes on the market, you need to try to imagine what the domestic demand for wheat in China will be like. So far, it is showing a decline of about 2 million tons this year, which means that China will offer more for export. Russia, probably, should compete for the Indian market, which will definitely import grain, they lack about 5-10 million tons for domestic consumption this year.
In addition, says Alexander Raksha, now grain storage capacities are growing all over the world, so a record harvest with unfavorable price dynamics can easily be accumulated. The growth of inventories, in turn, will undermine the further growth of the market, leading to price collapses. The second decisive factor will be the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against world currencies: in order to successfully increase grain exports, a weakening ruble is needed. This condition is favorable: since the beginning of June, the ruble has weakened against the US dollar by 6.7%, and continues to fall, as cheap oil, the declining Central Bank rate, and the rising key rate of the US Federal Reserve indicate that the ruble is overvalued.
The cold summer of 2017 rendered the Russian agro-industrial sector a great service, Kirill Yakovenko, an analyst at Alor Broker, comments in turn on the statistics. According to him, despite the negative impact of the weather factor on key economic indicators, as stated by the Ministry of Economics and the Central Bank, in general, farmers simply did not need a third consecutive record year in terms of yield. Just three years ago, the cost of a contract for the supply of 1 ton of wheat reached $ 320, but the oversupply formed in the market by the largest exporters, primarily Russia, France, the USA, Canada and Australia, brought down quotes to levels almost half as low as last year. for a ton of wheat they did not even give 170 dollars.
For the exporting state, the expert says, such a market situation is extremely unfavorable: an overabundance of grain leads to a decrease in market value, agrarians burdened with debts begin to work at a loss, which leads to the need to intervene in the market, the state begins to spend budgetary funds on the formation of stocks , while the costs of withdrawing surpluses from the market can cover the income received from exports, the formed stocks are transferred from year to year, storage facilities are overflowing, but it is impossible to release them. And although the high level of grain supply leads to a decrease in inflation, by and large this positive effect is more than offset by the losses incurred by both the state and the agrarians. Moreover, as shown last year, a record harvest is not a guarantee of low inflation rates, as market participants seek to compensate for lost profits and increase prices in the domestic market.
As Kirill Yakovenko recalls, back in April-May, independent analysts and the state made forecasts that this year would bring another record, in particular, it was planned that this season Russia would export 40 million tons of grain, 29 of which would be wheat, which is more than in the 16-17 season (about 37 tons of grain). Obviously, such "optimistic" forecasts took into account, first of all, the presence of 24 million tons of carry-over stocks formed earlier, the presence of which essentially meant that the state in this agricultural year, in fact, does not have the ability to intervene in the necessary to maintain prices on the market, not so much due to the lack of necessary funds, how much due to the banal congestion of granaries.
In fact, the impossibility of withdrawing surpluses from the market would mean their redirection to foreign market, which would inevitably lead to a drop in quotations, lost profits, losses and an increase in the debt burden of farmers, Kirill Yakovenko believes. In general, apparently, this year nature has decided to take a breather, which must be used, in particular, to sell the already formed carry-over stocks, which were estimated at 24 million tons by the beginning of the sowing season. However, the analyst believes, it is too early to rejoice. Firstly, despite quite apocalyptic forecasts, a cold summer is no guarantee that the yield this year will be below the average. In fact, we are talking only about a slight shift in the timing of sowing and harvesting.
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