Examples of knowledge transformation in the oil and gas industry. “The Amazon Effect”: will “digitized” oil production continue the shale revolution?
Efficiency of oil and gas production in fields Western Siberia decreases annually by 4-5 percent, according to the Ministry of Energy. Will help increase productivity and optimize the drilling process digital technologies. “Disruptive innovations,” that is, those that make traditional solutions uncompetitive, should become the basis of digital transformation oil and gas industry, according to Ernst&Young. So far, according to company estimates, only 10 percent are focused on them key projects in the Russian oil industry.
Some companies have been introducing new technologies for several years. In 2008, “smart fields” were launched by Salym Petroleum Development N.V., and two sites in the West Salym field were selected as pilot sites. The project is aimed at optimizing oil production and increasing oil recovery from wells, reducing operating costs. Thanks to the introduction of new technologies, production increased by an average of 2-2.5 percent per year, and unscheduled downtime was reduced. On average, the number of wells served by one production operator has also increased by 15-20 units.
In 2016, the Tatneft company created a center for geological and technical activities, where solutions that increase oil recovery are modeled. The company also operates a modeling center created for the optimal design of exploration and development of geological objects, and an objective assessment of the reserves accumulated in them. All production drilling wells in 2017-2018 are equipped with models that calculate predictive performance indicators.
Almost all mining companies are now moving towards the development and implementation of smart field technology, especially in the oil and gas sector, said Mikhail Cherkasov, director of key customers in the oil and gas sector at Schneider Electric in Russia and the CIS. Also, according to him, energy efficiency technologies are widely used. "IN last years companies are considering the possibility of using renewable energy sources and their wider use in the mining industry using the smart field concept,” the expert noted.
There is more and more talk about the implementation of industrial Internet of things technologies. During the drilling process, for example, they make it possible to collect information about the operation of equipment from sensors built into the drill, build models of further actions, and propose solutions for various emergency situations, said Alexander Lopukhov, Deputy General Director of CROC. You can also schedule automatically Maintenance equipment and optimize costs, relying on data on its operating time, and not on the recommended timing of routine maintenance. "The Internet of Things is suitable for monitoring the environmental situation - monitoring emissions and discharges of pollutants (oil, household waste, drilling fluid) into the environment, established limits and standards, as well as for collecting information about the state of environment in the area of geological exploration drilling," Lopukhov added.
The implementation of the Internet of Things is closely related to the use of big data. Mining companies are already working with big data processing systems, however, according to Mikhail Cherkasov, this technology is not sufficiently developed in Russia. "We are building data processing centers for the needs of companies, but for now we are talking about effective use big data and the Internet of things are largely a Western topic. In Russia they are thinking about this, but no global trends are visible yet,” the expert believes. Alexander Lopukhov also agreed that big data is not being implemented at a wide industrial level. According to him, it is too early to talk about any new business processes that this technology can generate.However, we can already say for sure that thanks to big data, all traditional methods for the exploration and extraction of minerals are now being implemented many times faster, and their results are more reliable.
Almost all mining companies are moving towards the implementation of smart field technology
Extractive industries have always had a lot of data, and digitalization brings this data online. IT companies expect an increase in requests for the creation and optimization of data warehouses, express and online analytics. Digitalization also entails new requirements for the transmission of received information. Many mining companies need to use satellite communications, which limits the capabilities of online processes. As Alexander Lopukhov said, in 2016 CROC optimized network traffic and increased its speed in expensive satellite communication channels by 2.3 times. The cost of a megabit has decreased, and the transfer of large amounts of data from a floating drilling platform to an onshore data processing center of an oil producing company began to occur without delays or technological complications.
The introduction of technology also changes the requirements for personnel of mining enterprises. The higher the level of robotization, the fewer people are needed. However, there is a growing demand for employees who can program robots and create the necessary algorithms for them. For example, previously, measurement work at fields was carried out by different specialists, sometimes risking their lives. Now, fiber optic monitoring technology makes it possible to monitor geographically extensive objects in real time using a special cable, said Alexander Lopukhov. This protects the facility from unauthorized intrusion, increasing the safety and efficiency of its operation. “This technology is domestic, and, among other things, it also saves wages,” the expert concluded.
At the rate consulting company Ernst & Young, the main driver of digital transformation in the oil and gas industry is the introduction of new business technologies, which are also called “disruptive innovation”. However, so far 70% of key projects in the oil industry in Russia and in the world are focused on cost reduction, 20% on supporting technologies and only 10% on these same “disruptive innovations.” Oil and gas industry players acknowledge that the industry is moving towards digital business transformation slowly for a number of reasons. In particular, in the state program “Digital Economy”, industry specifics are almost not taken into account and not all companies have an understanding of what their digital transformation actually consists of.
“The main driver of digitalization in oil and gas is “disruptive innovation”. The return on investment in such new business technologies is the shortest, in contrast to the return on investment in solutions aimed at reducing costs, supporting projects, etc.,” noted the partner, Artem Kozlovsky, head of the group for providing consulting services to oil and gas companies in the CIS at Ernst & Young, speaking at the III Federal IT Forum of the Russian oil and gas industry "Smart Oil and Gas 2017: Digital transformation of the oil and gas industry", organized by ComNews Conferences and subsidiary company PJSC Gazprom Neft - LLC ITSK.
All oil companies have already launched the topic of digitalization, noted the head of the department information technologies, automation and telecommunications of Gazprom Neft PJSC Konstantin Kravchenko. “We have created a drilling support program that allows us to manage this process. This year we launched an Efficiency Management Center. We are now creating a Production Management Center,” he said.
He recalled that digitalization poses new challenges for oil companies, but also provides new opportunities. In the future, companies will have to change their business models. He drew an analogy from the telecom industry: as instant messengers emerge, traditional telecom operators change their business model and begin to make money on services that are new to them. In the oil and gas industry, the traditional oil business is being challenged, for example, by the emergence of electric vehicles and the use of renewable energy sources. The task of the oil and gas industry in such conditions is to change its business model, reincarnate, become more efficient, become different.
Business Development Director of the Industrie 4.0 Maturity Center Martin Blader noted the advantages of a digital enterprise over a traditional one. A flexible digital enterprise responds faster to various unplanned events occurring on it thanks to real-time production, integration of all information systems with each other, big data analysis and the use of artificial intelligence, automation production processes and etc.
However, not everyone in the industry has an idea of what digitalization is and how to implement it. “Digitalization is like sex in adolescence: everyone talks about it, but no one does it. Now they pay a lot of attention to digitalization: everyone has changed their colors, everyone on their slides says that they are engaged in digitalization, they use the word digital, but there is no understanding of what is actually happening , no,” said Rinat Gimranov, head of the information technology department of Surgutneftegaz OJSC. “We must first formulate the goals of digitalization, and then our requests for building digital solutions.”
Answering a question from the audience about how the heads of other divisions of oil companies feel about digitalization, Rinat Gimranov briefly answered: “Since Vladimir Putin said “everything is digital”, will some boss really be against it?”
The head of the department of metrology, automation, standardization and information technology of Zarubezhneft JSC, Vyacheslav Berzin, noted that the state program “Digital Economy” almost does not take into account industry specifics. During the online voting organized by the forum organizers, participants answered the question of how the industry should represent its interests in the digital economy. The majority of those present in the hall voted for the creation of an industry group to formulate requirements for digital infrastructure, innovative technologies, regulations and personnel training system.
“But the state program clearly states that the release of standards and regulations on the Internet of Things is scheduled for 2019-2020. And we need the Internet of Things now,” noted Vyacheslav Berzin. As Rinat Gimranov noted, Internet of Things technologies can be implemented now, without adopting standards, but it is important that IoT solutions are normal. President, member of the board of directors, chairman of the board of ER-Telecom Holding JSC Andrey Kuzyaev believes that waiting for the release of IoT standards is a waste of time. “We will develop IoT without waiting for standards to develop,” he said.
According to Pavel Gontarev, CEO of SAP in the CIS, the oil and gas industry is now developing more slowly than other industries. There are various reasons for this. President of the National Association oil and gas services Viktor Khaikov recalled that the oil and gas industry is conservative and slow to accept new digital solutions on the market. Among all other companies, he noted Gazprom Neft PJSC as having advanced further than others in the direction of digital transformation.
Text: Natalia Petrova, Illustrations: Alexey Stolyarov
To assess the effect of the changes taking place today, it is enough to mentally step back into the past and remember how we lived, worked and did business 10-15 years ago. Analysts, however, argue that this is just the beginning of the process, and promise the business world dramatic changes in the near future. The winds of change are well felt at the top floors of corporations: in the survey general directors international companies, which is regularly conducted by IBM, technology came out on top among key factors business back in 2012 and have reliably maintained this position since then.
Experts note that the danger of the ongoing processes lies primarily in their scale and speed. Scientific and technical progress Never before has it passed at such a speed - and this speed continues to increase, leaving less and less time for thinking, forecasting and preparation. The changes themselves have never before been so all-encompassing: digitization does not bypass any area of our lives and sooner or later the numbers will come to every industry and to every home. In addition, all previous technological breakthroughs concerned the material world, but now the boundaries between the material world and virtual space are blurred, mixing together what was always reliably separated. How to deal with these changes? What to expect from them and how should businesses proceed?
Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the Board of Gazprom Neft: « We live in a special era - the era of the fourth industrial revolution. This era has a very serious impact on world economy. We see very well how quickly new industries emerge, how new companies appear and grow. Those players who previously dominated are forced to either accept the challenge of developing digital technologies and try to actively engage in them, or leave the market. If we talk about the oil industry, then we, unlike, for example, the banking business, are not so dependent and not so sensitive to the digital revolution. However, the use of digital technologies can provide certain advantages to companies. We have chosen a global course technological leadership, and one of the conditions for this leadership is the effective, rapid application of digital technologies.”
In the general flow
At first glance, transformations seem to happen haphazardly and unpredictably. The “digital icebreaker” begins here and there - it touches one industry on a tangent, turns another upside down, recent market leaders are derailed, and companies that no one had heard of a year ago come to the fore. Thus, with the development of the Internet, print media are slowly but surely leaving the market, giving way to electronic ones. Not only the method of disseminating information is changing, but also the genres and formats of handling the printed word. Mobile application technologies are also changing market after market - trucking, banking services, tourism. Retail is next, cellular and even B2B markets, where mobile applications, replacing various service functions. The interaction model proposed at one time by Uber has become a household name today.
Wave after wave of various digital technologies and related transformations is rolling in: the Internet, social media, big data, neural networks... However, a careful study of events and the forces driving them shows that behind the external diversity lie common universal features that allow us to say that we are dealing with a single process. This process of change is increasingly referred to as digital transformation.
Educational platform
A striking example implementation of a platform solution within the company - Gazprom Neft Corporate University. This new form educational projects, allowing employees not only to be consumers of knowledge, but to actively participate in its creation. The prerequisite for the emergence of the Corporate University was, on the one hand, the need of a large number of employees to improve their skills, and on the other, the colossal amount of knowledge and experience accumulated by the company’s experts. The platform format provides both with virtually unlimited opportunities for interaction due to the total integration of the educational space.
At the same time, Corporate University does a lot of work behind the scenes to ensure that the service is of the appropriate quality. The structural basis of this work is the faculties and departments within them. The department is a professional community, which is a key instrument for preserving and disseminating knowledge. Carriers of professional experience and knowledge can act in two roles within this community. As experts they provide high quality training content and monitor the relevance of the content of competency models, profiles, tests and curricula. As internal trainers, they develop and deliver training courses. One of the most important tasks of the Corporate University is to involve managers and holders of expertise in this work and help them strengthen the skills and abilities that are needed to carry it out. Currently, the Corporate University already has 21 departments and it is planned to open 9 more. The platform format of the Corporate University makes it possible to involve thousands of experts in its work who are able to provide educational process for tens of thousands of managers and employees.
What features are we talking about? Firstly, the increase in the number of connections. The number of connections increases every time some element of the physical world, previously isolated, is connected to the digital world. Such an element can be the person himself or some of the objects and devices surrounding him. Phones, cameras, players have become digital - they are all turning into auxiliary devices for connecting a person with the network. Refrigerators and washing machines are already mastering wi-fi. We are dealing with the Internet of things. Digital self-service checkout. Digital reception. Digital code on a museum exhibit. The emergence of compounds in itself is not a new phenomenon; the novelty lies in the rapid growth of their number.
Every active connection becomes a source of information for the digital ocean. This information was scattered in the physical world, but with the new connection it merged into the general information array. And the explosive growth of compounds leads to an explosive growth in the number available information. In other words, we are accumulating big data.
Available information, in turn, opens up hitherto unknown possibilities for interaction. Today, the game strategy of a basketball team can be based not on the experience of the coach, but on a machine analysis of the shots and behavior of the opposing players on the field. Using big data, Amazon analyzes the subtle nuances of its customers' preferences and makes surprisingly accurate offers to them. Yandex.Traffic, interacting with various sources, collects information about the situation on the road and improves traffic flows.
As a result, increased digital density—the number of connections, available information, and interactions—creates a bridge between the physical and digital worlds: digital world reflects the physical more and more accurately and, in turn, begins to transform it. This influence can be direct, as in the example with basketball, shopping and city navigation, or more indirect. An increase in digital density at some point develops into qualitative changes in the environment in which people and businesses exist.
Big Data
Gazprom Neft is already successfully using the phenomenon of growing digital density to improve business efficiency. Thus, back in 2012, the company launched the ERA (Electronic Asset Development) program, aimed at developing automation in exploration and production. Geological information about all the company's fields is accumulated and analyzed in its own information system GeoMate, and in the “Chess and Technical Mode” program, information from wells is stored and the technological mode of their operation is formed.
The implementation of various IT solutions immediately brought results - the company has increased the amount of information related to geological exploration, field development, well operation, etc. Today, to effectively process seismic data and build hydrodynamic models, Gazprom Neft is turning to the help of the supercomputer St. -Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University. Such power is needed to benefit from the enormous amount of heterogeneous and poorly structured data obtained when studying complex reserves.
Konstantin Kravchenko, Head of the Department of Information Technology, Automation and Telecommunications: “It is very important to understand that digital transformation is not the replacement of one technology with another. Digital transformation is, first of all, a change in the business management model, a change in business processes, a restructuring of the model of organization and conduct of business in a company, and in the case of oil and gas companies we're talking about on the transformation of all areas of its activities - exploration, production, processing, sales and corporate governance. Therefore, in order for such large-scale transformations to be accomplished, a digital transformation strategy is required. We must move from individual innovative initiatives and projects to a single step-by-step plan for the transition to digital economy. And such work is already underway at Gazprom Neft.”
Another example of active practical use the opportunities that the idea of digital transformation brings with it - information analysis using machine learning - artificial intelligence. Every day, large volumes of data are received from Gazprom Neft's production assets - operational well measurements (liquid and oil flow rates, product water cut, bottomhole pressure values), research physical characteristics formation and produced fluid. At the same time, for various reasons, these data may not always be correct or complete, and their analysis may lead to incorrect conclusions about the current state of wells or the field as a whole and ultimately affect decision-making regarding development. Such solutions may include hydraulic fracturing or well workover, drilling sidetracks, or the use of tertiary enhanced oil recovery methods.
The task of artificial intelligence in this situation is to find errors in the data and additionally determine missing values, thereby improving the quality of information, identifying new, previously unnoticed patterns, and speeding up the analysis process itself. Only a machine can analyze every megabyte of data, integrate heterogeneous data, and take into account various patterns when making forecasts. Today specialists Scientific and Technical Center Gazprom Neft together with Engineering center MIPT began developing algorithms to teach machines relevant skills. In the future, we will create a full-fledged intellectual assistant for a developer specialist.
Signs of transformation
Digital transformation has a lot of symptoms that can be roughly grouped into three groups. Firstly, there is a change in the mentality of end consumers, which has already been called consumerization. The meaning of the changes is that specialized IT technologies are increasingly becoming available to the mass user. In turn, users try to use “home” technologies in the office without thinking about their security. Over the past decade and a half, the technological emphasis has shifted significantly from the business segment to consumer segment: if at the beginning of the millennium the leaders were such technology companies as Microsoft, Cisco, IBM, which worked primarily with business, now Google, Apple, Facebook, focused on the ordinary person at the very end of the chain, have taken the leading positions. People in droves have received a first-class digital experience - and their expectations and behavior have changed dramatically. A man who yesterday, together with his son, filmed their area with an iPhone from a quadcopter is not satisfied with a mobile banking application with an interface like an ATM or the previous one. simple circuit“paid - filled up - went” to the gas station - he wants to get something more, something that corresponds to the rest of his experience. At the same time, if a person needs to send a large file at work or urgently contact someone, he will not hesitate to use online file sharing or instant messenger. Businesses must take these trends into account so that the moment does not come when the company will seem antediluvian not only to clients, but also to its own employees.
Performance Management Center
In June 2017, the Gazprom Neft Oil Refining and Marketing Efficiency Management Center (ERC) opened in St. Petersburg. Strategic goal This unique project for the industry is the construction of a unified digital platform for managing the efficiency of the value chain - from the receipt of oil at refineries to the sale of petroleum products to the end consumer. The center uses modern technologies data analysis, predictive analytics methods and big data.
The operating principle of the TsUE is based on integration various systems value chain management, organizing free and continuous data exchange between them and using predictive analytics methods on parameters such as demand for petroleum products, equipment reliability, petroleum product quality, environmental monitoring, energy efficiency, etc. In real time, 250,000 sensors and dozens of systems transmit information to the central control center from all company assets included in the perimeter of the Gazprom Neft logistics, refining and sales block.
As part of the work of the center, the formation of accurate engineering models continues technological installations— digital twins of assets, which will allow us to move to proactive management of the reliability, security and efficiency of enterprises.
Another important sign that digital transformation has already affected a particular industry: a democratic competitive environment, which is achieved by lowering the entry threshold into business and is expressed in an avalanche-like growth in the number of startups. The founders of many startups are looking for small niches where large companies poorly cover the needs of clients, but at the same time they can get significant income. They do not necessarily compete with the “dinosaurs” directly, but by their very vibrant existence in their chosen niche they form an environment that creates strong competitive pressure on traditional businesses. In such a conservative industry as oil and gas, startups can find their place by offering companies innovative technologies, IT products, business management solutions.
At the same time, the democratization of business results in a variety of business models being used, and this applies not only to startups, although they undoubtedly set the tone here. Any company, regardless of size or scope of activity, can expand or change its ways of interacting with customers. A striking example of a new approach is platform solutions. Google and Apple were among the first to implement this model, followed by hundreds of consumer platforms. Now the time has come for industrial companies. In Russia, the development of platform production systems is carried out, for example, by Mail.ru Group. The holding has already entered the industrial Internet of things (IIoT) market by launching the Tarantool IIoT platform, which allows you to collect data from sensors at enterprises and send it to data centers for analysis.
Platform production systems allow you to build business management in a new way, increase production efficiency and optimize the entire value chain. At Gazprom Neft, such a platform was the recently opened Performance Management Center in the logistics, refining and sales block (see inset).
At the same time, large industrial companies themselves can take an active part in creating platforms as business models for the interaction of various business representatives - technology creators, service providers. Thus, Gazprom Neft is already an active customer of innovations, simultaneously involving both scientific organizations and equipment manufacturers in their creation. In particular, the company is implementing the project “Creation of a complex of domestic technologies and high-tech equipment for the development of reserves of the Bazhenov formation.” This project can be considered a prototype of a platform model of relationships between all market participants. Various research institutes and industrial companies are invited to participate. And systematic development and testing of new domestic technologies is expected to be carried out on the basis of the Center for the Development of TRIZ Production Technologies, which Gazprom Neft is creating in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug together with the administration of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - Ugra.
Sales platform
Digital transformation can provide significant competitive advantages for the sales unit of Gazprom Neft. Today, the company is creating a digital sales platform. It will allow you to finely and accurately customize the product and service offering for each client in any of the sales channels, quickly create and introduce new products and services to the market, provide the consumer with instant access to the required solution - be it a gas station management contract, a fuel supply contract, or an order to deliver an order from an online store to a specific station at a specific time.
In other words, the company will ensure leadership in the end-consumer market, including in the B2B segment, by using accumulated knowledge about its client, organizing effective end-to-end logistics and the ability to seamlessly integrate the capabilities of partners from any other industries into its own client offering. IT solutions in these three areas will form the basis of the architecture of the digital sales platform. Detailing of competitive areas for the formation of specific IT projects is carried out as part of the development of the digital strategy of the directorate regional sales. By the end of the year, the development of the strategy will be completed and the implementation of the technological component of the platform will begin. At the same time, changes are being developed in organizational model directorates necessary to form the business component of the digital sales platform.
Company of the future
With the growth of digital density, the key competencies of a business are changing, which ensure its very existence - they allow you to create value for the client and monetize the created value. The emergence of some and the disappearance of other key competencies cannot be called something new: once upon a time, the advent of cars devalued the skills of driving a horse, but created a need for the skills of driving a car. Nowadays, with the advent of the navigator, the skill of orienting in the city has become less useful - but the value of the skill of handling digital devices. The same thing happens at the level of organizations and industries. However, it can be very difficult for both people and organizations to give up their polished competencies when they are no longer needed.
Changes in key competencies entail industry restructuring, the emergence of new business models, and organizational changes. Digital transformation of business is the development of the ability to create and develop new competencies that make a business successful in an environment of constant and large-scale changes. Media, retailers, IT companies, banks have encountered the described phenomena in full height. Industry is away from the center of events, but those who feel safe are engaged in self-deception: the first echoes of digital transformation can be heard here too. According to experts, in the digital future for oil and gas companies, competencies related to innovative development, development of new products, development of new markets. While routine functions will increasingly be outsourced to robots, knowledge related to geological exploration, data analysis, reliability management and company efficiency will remain in demand.
Just last year, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that US crude oil production was on track to reach all-time highs. In October 2017, US crude oil exports rose to almost 2 million barrels per day, which became a new record for America - it now rivals Kuwait in export volumes.
This state of affairs causes concern among industry leaders, especially OPEC, and among supporters of alternative energy - they hope for a decrease in US oil production and an increase in prices; even current production values are of serious concern. Last month, Citi released a forecast that US shale oil production would double in five years. New players will appear in the largest regional markets, which will change the supply structure; one of the fastest growing markets is Asian, and the export of shale oil there from the United States has already become sensational.
American shale companies announce ambitious projects to increase production. Their plans threaten to undermine OPEC's efforts to stabilize the global oil market and restore commodity prices. According to the EIA, oil production in the United States in 2018 could reach 10 million barrels per day, this level could become a record since 1970, in which the previous maximum was reached - 9.6 million barrels per day. Over the past 10 years, shale oil production has transformed the traditional market - significantly reducing conventional oil production, as well as prices, including in 2014 and becoming a serious problem for OPEC.
Digital technologies and software are having a major impact on shale oil production, further transforming the energy industry. A number of experts believe that the energy sector is on the verge of a real transformation change - comparable to Amazon's revolutionary transformation in retail. This opinion was expressed in American Forbes by Mark Mills, a strategic partner of Cottonwood Venture Partners, a technology venture fund specializing in digital solutions for the oil and gas industry. Mills cited examples of startups offering horizontal drilling software, on-demand contractor networks, and AI-powered well design platforms and other innovative solutions. Their common feature is that they narrowly specialize in various segments oil industry, providing solutions that significantly reduce time, labor and costs while improving results.
According to Mills, three factors in technological development will create an “Amazon effect” in the oil and gas industry that will change the face of the industry forever. These are cheap computing technologies with the ability to industrial applications, the ubiquitous presence of communication networks, and finally, cloud technologies. The Internet of Things is pervasive in the oil and gas industry, along with data analytics technologies and artificial intelligence.
It is these areas of modern digital technologies that will become one of the driving forces of the second shale revolution. In particular, shale oil project operators are increasingly turning their attention to effective business software solutions that level the playing field between independent players and the oil and gas industry giants that previously dominated for decades.
But the oil and gas industry is complex, and technological innovations come to it unevenly, Nikolay Legkodimov, head of the KPMG advanced technologies consulting group in Russia and the CIS, explained to Forbes. What is closest to the consumer - retail(refueling and related products), will indeed transform quite seriously: due to new payment methods, cross-selling with other products and offers, development of loyalty programs, integration with other retail services, etc. More and more it will look like regular retail. This part, both abroad and in Russia, will be highly dependent on technology.
However, Legkodimov believes that in areas that are not visible to the end consumer, but are nevertheless fundamental, for example, mining and processing, digitalization penetrates to a lesser extent, but not because it is less in demand, but because it has been there for a long time . There is historically large funding, serious industrial groups and serious vendors who are working on the automation of these industries: “Accordingly, there will not be any fundamental change here, simply because there is no low base effect. Of course, some new developments will be introduced. For example, the same mechanisms based on artificial intelligence, will increase equipment reliability/fail-safety management. Also, geological exploration will be a consumer of everything digital - where there is a lot of data, there are many options for using IT.”
As Daria Kozlova, senior consultant at VYGON Consulting, told Forbes, it is necessary to separate the concept of operational technologies, which are directly related to exploration and development of fields (4D seismic, horizontal drilling), and digital technologies, which allow collecting and analyzing large volumes of information, increasing the efficiency of companies. . “Digital technologies are an infrastructure that makes it possible to increase the efficiency of operational technologies or speed up the process of their implementation. Therefore, on the one hand, they will put pressure on the price of oil, worsening economic efficiency tight oil development. On the other hand, digital technologies increase drilling efficiency. They likely contributed to the decline in the Bakken breakeven point from $58/bbl in 2014 to $32/bbl in 2016.” But the shale revolution is nevertheless limited not only by technology, but also by economics and shale production. “In my opinion, its prospects are solely a question of whether oil is expensive enough on the market to make it technologically difficult enough to extract it from shale,” Nikolai Legkodimov explained to Forbes.
Independent for now oil companies The US doesn't invest as much money in technology (compared to healthcare or finance), but Mark Mills predicts there will be a flurry of M&A deals in oil and gas software in the near future. The reason for this consolidation is clear: among shale oil producers there are many independent companies, and technological improvements will separate the winners from the losers. Some independent shale companies are seriously burdened with debt resulting from expansion of production, and not all will survive the new digital revolution.
And among the competitors there are not only the flagships of the oil and gas industry, but also renewable energy sources, which step on the heels whenever oil prices rise, and which are already actively using modern software - this will become a strong motivation for shale producers. And indeed, in conditions low prices In the oil industry, industry leaders are paying increasing attention to this area, introducing digital technologies and collaborating with global IT companies - IBM, Microsoft. “The number of “smart fields” and “smart wells” is increasing around the world. BP, for example, even held its own “Digital day,” says Daria Kozlova.
In her opinion, Russian companies are not lagging behind their foreign partners in this direction. There are 27 intellectual fields operating in Russia. Considering that Russia has a significant resource potential of hard-to-recover reserves, prospecting areas, as well as projects to apply enhanced oil recovery methods, digital technologies can have a significant impact on the level of production in the country. “According to our estimates, the potential additional effect could be up to 150 million tons by 2035. Therefore, their implementation may even need to be further stimulated,” Kozlova explained.
But the Russian oil industry, Legkodimov notes, has traditionally not been at the forefront of technology, and now this trend is breaking. At the same time, it is important to understand that this is not about implementation promising technologies, and still about automation. “Digital field” or “digital plant” is to a large extent an automation program: “To talk about a digital breakthrough where it is not always possible to abandon manual data entry and paper storage of records, in my opinion, is a little naive.”
As Danila Shaposhnikov, partner at North Energy Venture, notes, leading global companies are now working on the “smart field” area: Chevron - iFields project, BP - Field of the Future project, Shell - Smart Fields project. Russian companies are also not lagging behind.
“However, startups remain the center of development of these technologies. The world's leading independent and corporate venture funds, including Energy Ventures, Lime Rock Partners, Altira and many others, are investing in this sector. The venture industry focuses on the following technological areas: Instrumentation & Field Capture - collecting data using sensors from ground, underground and underwater O&G infrastructure; Data Integration & Analytics - interpretation and analysis of data, including in real time, for geological modeling, optimization of drilling operations, etc.; Networking & Communications - technologies for remote monitoring of field infrastructure facilities,” noted Shaposhnikov.
He also noted that in Russia the number of venture funds with a focus on oil and gas technologies is growing, for example, RDIF recently announced the creation of a joint fund with Saudi Arabia with a mandate to invest in high tech oil services.
