Lecture 13

Lecture 16 This method is used when rational mathematical methods are ineffective in solving problems. Produced intuitively.

Lecture 18 The "synectics" method as a method of searching for new solutions was proposed by W. Gordon in the USA in 1961 in his book "Synectics:

Lecture 19. The Delphi Method Its other name is the "Delphic oracle", which he received in ancient Greece. This method was

Lecture 20. The method of "scenarios" The method of "scenarios" is one of the methods of expert assessments, with the help of which a picture of the object under study is given in the future based on the current situation. Using this method, the main goals of the development of the object of study are determined.

Lecture 21 external environment organization. This method consists of analyzing data on external and internal environment and linkages

Lecture 23 necessary information.

Lecture 24 In doing so, the researcher must use

Lecture 25. Polling as a private research method Polling is a question-answer method of collecting information about the object of research, which is collected by contacting the interviewed people with certain questions that contain the research problem. At the heart of this

Lecture 28 printed form, on magnetic film, in in electronic format, in

ATTACK PRINCIPLE LUCKY DOG DOESN'T BITE In the summer of 1975, I was visiting my grandmother in Long Beach, California. On a stuffy July afternoon, my friends wanted to get out of the hot city and swim in the Pacific Ocean. I also went, dying of horror. I was trembling like a frightened rabbit

The "brainstorming" method is widely used for the systematic training of creative thinking and its activation.

It is known that criticism or even fear of criticism interferes with creative thinking. Of course, any new idea may turn out to be incorrect. If the author is afraid of criticism, which may be caused by the fact that his idea is bad, he will not express unverified thoughts. In this case, many potentially good ideas will be lost. In order to eliminate the fear of criticism when generating an idea and the consequences it causes, A. Osborne developed a method of so-called "brainstorming". His book Applied Imagination, published in 1957, was adopted as the basis for lecture courses at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as well as in other higher education institutions. educational institutions USA, in colleges, research institutes and industrial companies.

The method proposed by A. Osborne is used to identify the largest possible number original ideas. In essence, it is a modified method of free association. The emphasis is on relaxing attention to the critical evaluation of the value of individual ideas. What matters is not their quality, but quantity. Criticism of the ideas put forward is made later, after the "creative session" is over.

The main rules for holding meetings (sessions) using the "brainstorming" method are recommended:

Formulate the problem in basic terms, single out a single central point.

Do not declare false and do not stop researching any idea.

To take up an idea of ​​any kind, even if its relevance seems dubious at the time.

Provide the support and encouragement that is so necessary to free participants from their inhibitions.

Evaluate and select ideas only after the end of the session with the help of a group of experts, preferably not participating in the session.

The success of a brainstorming meeting largely depends on its leader, who must be able to conduct meetings in accordance with certain rules, master the necessary techniques, be able to ask questions, suggest or clarify ideas submitted, make sure that there are no big pauses in the expression of ideas, or so that the expression of ideas does not go only in a rational direction (if this happens, the leader must take preventive measures, for example, suggesting a deliberately fantastic or impractical idea, directing reasoning along a less rational channel with a leading question).

The allowed number of participants in the meeting is from 4 to 15 people. The duration of the meeting according to the method of direct collective "brainstorming" - from 15 minutes to 1 hour, depending on the nature and complexity of the problem. A secretary is assigned to record the ideas expressed or a tape recorder is used.

The group of experts carefully studies the statements of the participants in the meeting, paying special attention to the possibility of using original, although, at first glance, unrealistic ideas. Experts first select ideas that can be implemented at a given level of technological development, then they choose best ideas for use in specific conditions.

In the event that it is necessary to identify shortcomings and contradictions in the technical object to be improved, a reverse "brainstorming" is carried out. In reverse brainstorming, in contrast to direct brainstorming, the main attention is paid to critical remarks, and the choice is made not of a general, but of a purely specific technical (or technological) task.

The Soviet researcher A. Alexandrov proposed an analogue method with a destructive relative valuation. Its essence lies in the activation of the creative potential of the inventor in the collective generation of ideas with the subsequent formation of counter-tides. This provides for a step-by-step sequential implementation of a number of procedures:

the first stage is the formation of a group of participants in the dialogue, optimal in size and composition;

the second stage is the creation of a problem situation analysis group, the formation of an initial broadly defined inventive problem, the communication of the problem along with a description of the method of destructive related evaluation to all participants in the dialogue;

the third stage is the generation of ideas according to the rules of direct collective brainstorming, special attention at this stage is paid to creating a creative atmosphere and a relaxed atmosphere; a pre-prepared list of ideas is not allowed to be read out; each participant can perform several times, but not in a row;

the fourth stage is the systematization of ideas by the problem situation analysis group; in the process of systematization, a nomenclature list of the expressed ideas is compiled; each idea is formulated using commonly used terms, after which it is analyzed in order to identify duplicate and (or) complementary ideas; the main, duplicating them and (or) supplementing ideas are combined and formulated in the form of complex ideas; signs are studied by which complex ideas can be combined, according to these signs, ideas are classified into groups, a list of groups of ideas is compiled, expressing general principles approach to problem solving;

the fifth stage is the destruction of ideas, i.e. assessment of their feasibility in the process of "brainstorming"; "brainstorming" at this stage is aimed at a comprehensive consideration of possible obstacles to the implementation of ideas;

the sixth stage is the evaluation of the critical remarks made during the previous stage, the compilation of the final list of practically used ideas, only those ideas that were not rejected due to critical remarks, as well as counter-ideas, are included in the list.

The method of dialogue with destructive related evaluation was used in teaching students of a number of universities. At the same time, it was found that the most effective results are achieved when all participants in the brainstorming session are rationally divided into three groups: generating ideas, analyzing the problem situation and evaluating ideas, generating counter-reviews. Groups can work independently. In some cases, effective results are obtained by repeating the meetings with some modification of the wording of the same task and at the same time replacing the functions performed by the groups (for example, transferring the responsibilities of the idea generation group to the analysis group, the responsibilities of the countermeasure generation group to the idea generation group and the responsibilities of the generation group to the countermeasure generation group). ideas).

The "brainstorming" method is usually used as a group method using the techniques of analogy, fantasy, inversion, empathy, but there are reports of its individual use. This method gives the best results when searching for solutions that are not exact, special, but are of a general or organizational nature. Sometimes simple inventive problems are solved with the help of this method.

The most famous method of psychological activation of thinking is "brainstorming", proposed by A. Osborne (USA) in the 40s.

"Brainstorming" is a collective method of searching for inventive solutions and new business ideas, the main feature of which is the division of participants into critics and "generators", as well as the separation of the process of generating and criticizing ideas in time. In addition, "brainstorming" involves the implementation of a number of rules:

• 1. You can not criticize the proposed ideas, disputes and discussions are prohibited.
• 2. Any ideas are welcome, including fantastic ones. There are no bad ideas.

The development, improvement and combination of other people's ideas is encouraged.

Ideas should be stated briefly, without interrupting the baton of ideas.

The main goal is to get as many ideas as possible.

Mandatory conditions for conducting a brainstorming session are the creation of favorable conditions for overcoming psychological inertia and the fear of expressing ridiculous ideas for fear of their criticism, attracting specialists of various profiles to the group, their tendency to creative work. The group leader (leader) should be a specialist in the methods of technical creativity.

"Brainstorming" is a fairly universal method, the application of which is possible in scientific, technical, administrative, commercial, promotional activities, both for finding non-standard solutions in technology, and for finding new business ideas.

Methods for finding new ideas and solutions. Brainstorm

Brainstorm- one of the most famous methods of collective search for solutions. It is used when searching for solutions in various areas human activity with a lack of information.

Other names: brainstorming, direct brainstorming (Brainstorming). The author of the method is A. Osborne (USA), late 1930s. XX century.

Purpose of the method

Stimulate the group to quickly generate a large number of diverse ideas.

The essence of the method

• · Separation in time of the process of generating ideas and the process of their evaluation.
• ·Group ideation process.
• · The process is managed by a professional facilitator who is able to ensure compliance with all conditions and rules.
• · Ideas are not yet a solution to a problem, but the emergence of a direction for its solution.
• · The universality of the method is inversely proportional to its effectiveness.

Action plan

• · Select a group of people to generate ideas and a group of people to evaluate ideas (4-8 people each).
• · Familiarize participants with the rules of brainstorming.
• ·Clearly formulating the problem and presenting it in a form that is most convenient for the participants.
• Strictly follow the rules of brainstorming.
• ·After the meeting of "generators" ideas are considered by a group of experts in the field.

Rules for Brainstorming

• · Quantity of ideas is preferable to quality.
• · Criticism of ideas at the stage of generation is prohibited.
• · There should be no boss in the idea generation group.
• · No bad ideas! Any ideas are welcome.
• Any idea should be developed, even if its relevance seems to be this moment dubious.
• · Encouraging jokes, puns, fantastic ideas.
• ·Providing support and encouragement for the release of meeting participants from constraint.
• · Keep your ideas short.
• · All put forward ideas are fixed and then edited.
• · When evaluating ideas, obviously erroneous and unrealistic ones are discarded.

Stages of brainstorming

1. Preparation

o Appointment of leader.

oSelection of participants for working groups.

o Selection of factual material.

oTraining and briefing of participants.

o Ensuring the activities of the participants.

2. Putting forward ideas

o Clarification of the task.

o Generation of ideas.

o Elaboration and development of the most valuable ideas.

o Recording proposals.

oEditing the list of ideas.

3. Evaluation and selection of ideas

o Understanding the problem.

o Definition of evaluation criteria.

oClassification and evaluation of ideas.

o Development of ideas based on analysis.

• · Ease of development and simplicity in the address.
• · Insignificant expenses of time for carrying out.
• ·Universality of the method.
• · Most effective in solving organizational problems, as well as technical problems of a low level of complexity.

disadvantages

• · Solving relatively simple problems.
• · Absence of criteria giving priority directions for putting forward ideas.
• · No guarantee of finding strong ideas.

Among the many methods for generating ideas and developing creative thinking, the brainstorming method (another name) stands out. It enjoys great popularity all over the world. Using the method allows you to find solutions to complex problems and helps to reveal personal potential. As a rule, the method is used in large teams at meetings when it becomes necessary to find optimal solution one problem or another.

The method was developed in 1930. Its author is the American scientist Alex Osborne. He offered his methodology to business leaders in order to most effectively plan entrepreneurial activity. In 1953, A. Osborne published the book "Guided Imagination", the author described the techniques he developed, and which quickly gained popularity among enterprise managers. Many big businessmen respect the method and successfully practice it, while noting the increase in labor efficiency, profit growth, the emergence of a large number of new, interesting ideas.

The essence of the method is as follows: employees and managers of the enterprise come together. They are given a task to solve. Each member of the group can offer their own solutions, put forward hypotheses, make assumptions, discuss the results, challenge the proposals of other participants. During the process, new ideas and proposals begin to emerge.

Alex Osborne

A. Osborne was prompted to create the method by the situation that arose at the enterprise where he worked. The company faced the problem of lack of creative ideas, although there was sufficient intellectual and creative potential. The scientist began to understand the problem and came to the conclusion that the reason for the current situation is the closed nature of the development and adoption management decisions because only experienced professionals are involved in this process. But the course of their thought, as a rule, is stereotyped, although they themselves do not notice it. Other employees who do not have the appropriate specialization do not participate in the search for solutions. Osborne suggested that non-specialists who could submit non-standard ideas. He also divided the process of working on a problem into two stages: the proposal of ideas and their analysis and selection. Osborn considered the absence of restrictions on the creative activity of the participants to be an important condition for the discussion. Thus was born the method of brainstorming.

Types of brainstorming

There are several types of brainstorming: direct, reverse, shadow and individual.

• Direct brainstorming is the most common type of method and is used to quickly solve problems. actual problem. It is suitable for discussing the most important issues related to the development of the enterprise, the implementation of new projects, etc. Introducing an element of a business game into ordinary planning meetings and meetings allows you to unleash the intellectual potential of employees. In addition, this method improves the psychological climate in the team.
• Reverse brainstorming is effective when a previously made decision turned out to be untenable and an urgent need to come up with another one. During the discussion, participants should actively challenge each other's ideas. Disputes and entry into controversy are welcome. Reverse brainstorming can be used to overcome unresolvable conflicts that require substantial intervention. Participants in the discussion can make any proposals without restrictions. This approach is very efficient.
• Shadow brainstorming is designed for people who cannot be creative in a team. To implement the method, the group of participants is divided into two subgroups. One subgroup is actively discussing, expressing ideas and challenging them. The other subgroup does not take an active part in the discussion, but plays the role of observers. Each member of the second subgroup writes down on paper the ideas that arise in his head under the influence of the work of the active group. The list of ideas that were devised by both the active and the shadow group are given to experts for evaluation, refinement and further development.
• Individual brainstorming is suitable for a person experiencing a professional or creative crisis. Reception is perfect for activating ideas not only in a team, but also in an individual. During an individual approach, a person conducts a dialogue with himself, puts forward a wide variety of ideas, evaluates them himself. This method works quite effectively and helps to overcome the creative block. It can be used as a decision-making method under limited time conditions.

How the method is implemented in practice

All work is carried out in three stages:

1. Preparatory stage. At this stage, preparation for brainstorming is carried out. First of all, the leader of the group is chosen, who must formulate the tasks and goals of the method, select participants for the subsequent stages and solve all organizational issues. The participants in the discussion are divided into two groups: “generators” and “analysts”. The first group includes active employees with developed creative thinking. The second group includes experts who are well versed in the topic of discussion. They evaluate the ideas put forward by the first group. In some cases, a third, additional group is created - “counter-tide generators”.
2. The main stage (generation of ideas). The main stage of work lasts approximately 15-20 minutes. At this time, there is an active search for ideas. The entire process of brainstorming takes 1.5-2 hours. All ideas put forward by group members are carefully recorded. During the generation process, the group leader supports the participants in every possible way, trying to maximize their creative thinking. He can give examples of the craziest ideas to push others into the process.
3. The final stage (summarizing). At this stage, the collected proposals are presented to a group of "analysts" for analysis, systematization and assessment of their viability. The selection of the most interesting and constructive options is carried out and a list of them is compiled.

Rules for brainstorming

The optimal number of participants is 6-12 people. It is good if the group includes not only experienced employees, but also young people who do not yet have rigid stereotypes of thinking. Groups must be mixed and consist of men and women. It is necessary to try so that the difference in age and service status of the participants is not too large. It is recommended to occasionally introduce new people into groups who can bring fresh, non-standard ideas.

The number of active and moderate members in the group should be approximately the same. To conduct brainstorming, you need to choose a separate room or meeting room, where nothing will interfere with the process. It is best to have a round table discussion.

The facilitator should try to create a relaxed environment that will allow participants to feel at ease. To do this, you can use humor and other tricks. All ideas must be recorded on paper or recorded on a voice recorder.

The leader also takes part in the idea generation process. The task of the leader is to free the group members from stereotyped thinking and push them to a creative search. Often the process of generating ideas from the participants of the discussion continues after the end of the meeting. In this case, the leader should gather the group after a few days and record the ideas they came up with.

Conditions for successful brainstorming

During the discussion, criticism of the ideas put forward is not allowed. Even the most fantastic unusual idea must be recorded. This contributes to the activation of thinking among group members. Participants should try to come up with as many sentences as possible.

The essence of the brainstorming method is to rid the participants of stereotyped thinking and force them to think outside the box. Only in this case the method will be effective. What matters is not the quality of ideas, but their quantity. In total, in 20 minutes of work, a group can generate about 100 ideas. With a competent organization of the process, a higher result is possible - 200-250 ideas.

All ideas are written down so that the participants in the discussion can see them. It is most convenient to write them down with markers on large sheets of paper or on a special board. After all the ideas are collected and written down, the group members need to be given a break so that they can take a break from mental work. At this stage, work on the task often continues on an unconscious level, and a reorganization of ideas may occur.

Advantages and disadvantages of the method

The brainstorming method, like any idea generation method, has a number of advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages :

• creative thinking is activated;
• the process of collective discussion brings group members closer and teaches them to work effectively in a team;
• the process of searching for ideas eliminates laziness, stereotyped thinking, passivity, pushing even the most inactive members to the creative process;
• the method is easy to use, its rules are easy to understand for all participants in the process, in addition, its implementation does not require special equipment and conditions.

disadvantages :

• because of the encouragement of any, even the most fantastic ideas, members of the group can get away from the real problem;
• among the options put forward, it can be difficult to find a truly practical option;
• the most experienced and active participants can begin to claim leadership and try to promote their ideas as the most productive ones.

The use of the brainstorming method will help the manager to reveal the intellectual potential of his subordinates and direct him to the search for new, creative ideas that can improve the efficiency of production.

A fairly common method of peer review is "brainstorming" or "brainstorming". The basis of the method is the development of a solution based on the joint service of the problem by experts. As experts, as a rule, not only specialists in this problem are accepted, but also people who are specialists in other fields of knowledge. The discussion is based on a pre-designed scenario.

The brainstorming method appeared in the United States of America at the end of the 30s, and finally took shape and became known to a wide range of specialists with the release of A. Osborne's book "Guided Imagination" in 1953, in which the principles and procedures of creative thinking were revealed.

Brainstorming methods can be classified according to the presence or absence of feedback between the leader and the participants of the "brainstorming" in the process of solving some problem situation.

The current situation required the development of a method of "brainstorming" - destructive related evaluation (DRE), capable of qualitatively and quickly assessing options, without limiting their number.
The essence of this method lies in the actualization of the creative potential of specialists during the "brainstorming" of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas with the formation of counter-ideas.

Structurally, the method is quite simple. It is a two-stage procedure for solving a problem: at the first stage, ideas are put forward, and at the second they are concretized and developed.

Osborne faced an everyday situation that most citizens do not perceive as a problem. Many acute tasks facing enterprises are not solved for a long time, despite the obviously high intellectual potential of the employees of enterprises. Is it only the lack of resources and material incentives that is to blame here? Let us ask ourselves after A. Osborne the same question: why is the creative potential of the country's citizens so little used to solve the problems it faces? After all, everyone has creativity. The answer was found by Osborn in a detailed examination of the procedure for including a "newcomer" in the solution of the problem. As a rule, problems are formulated by specialists in a professional language, using special terms, based on knowledge of deep effects. To thoroughly understand such a problem in order to join in its discussion is not easy. And to top it off, ideas are expressed by non-professionals without regard to restrictions, often in an ‘Incorrect, non-strict form. All this leads to a negative reaction of professionals, a wave of criticism directed at the form of the statement. Judgments about incompetence very quickly develop into conclusions about the impossibility of using this person for creative work.

So, in order for the idea to be accepted by specialists, it must be put forward in a “correct way” – this is a widely held opinion.

The most important element of the method proposed by Osborne is the removal of this limitation. “Why not separate each problem in such a way that one part of experienced experts take care of finding facts about legal judgment, while creative consultants would focus only on putting forward one idea after another,” writes A. Osborne.

This division of the idea search process into constructive stages and the selection of people to carry out each stage is the basis of the proposed method. A. Osborne points to the emergence of a new approach to problem solving, an approach that he called "imagery". "You let your fantasy fly, and then you 'image' it to the ground." The development of this idea led to the emergence of a rather complex sequence of actions. The most important premise on which Osborn relied was the idea that each person has two most important aspects of the brain: creative mind and analytical thinking. Their alternation, according to Osborne, is the basis of all processes of creative work.

1. Think through all aspects of the problem. The most important of these are often so complex that it takes the imagination to bring them to light.

2. Select sub-problems to attack. Refer to the list of possible aspects of the problem, carefully analyze them, select a few goals.

3. Think about what data might be useful. We have formulated the problem, now we need quite specific information. But first, let's put ourselves at the mercy of creativity to come up with all kinds of data that can help the most.

4. Select the most preferred sources of information. Having answered the question about the types of information needed, let's move on to deciding which of the sources should be studied first.

5. Come up with all sorts of ideas - "keys" to the problem. This part of the thinking process certainly requires freedom of the imagination, unaccompanied or interrupted by critical thinking.

6. Select ideas that are most likely to lead to a solution. This process is associated mainly with logical thinking. The emphasis here is on comparative analysis.

7. Come up with all sorts of ways to test. Here again we need creative thinking. It is often possible to discover completely new ways of checking.

8. Select the most thorough verification methods. When deciding how best to check, we will be strict and consistent. We will select those methods that seem the most convincing.

9. Imagine all possible applications. Even if our final solution is confirmed experimentally, we should have an idea of ​​what might happen as a result of its use in various fields. For example, every military strategy is ultimately shaped by the idea of ​​what the enemy can do.

10. Give a final answer.

Here one can clearly see the alternation of creative, synthesizing stages and analytical, rational ones. This alternation of expansions and narrowings of the search field is inherent in all developed search methods. A shorter sequence of actions, also described in the book Practical Imagination, has become widely known and is the essence of the brainstorming method. The method includes two main steps:

— Stage of nomination (generation) of ideas.

— Stage of analysis of the put forward ideas.

Work within these stages must be carried out subject to a number of basic rules. At the generation stage, there are three of them:

3. Encouragement of all put forward ideas, including unrealistic and fantastic.

At the analysis stage, the main rule is:

4. Revealing the rational basis in each analyzed idea.

The method proposed by A. Osborne was called ("brainstorming").

Working with the DOO method involves the implementation of the following six stages.

The first stage is the formation of a group of brainstorming participants (in terms of size and composition). The optimal size of a group of participants is found empirically: groups of 10–15 people are recognized as the most productive. The composition of the group of participants involves their targeted selection:

1) from persons of approximately the same rank, if the participants know each other;

2) from persons of different ranks, if the participants are not familiar with each other (in this case, each of the participants should be leveled by assigning him a number and then addressing the participant by number).

The second stage is the compilation of a problem note by a brainstorming participant. It is compiled by the problem situation analysis group and includes a description of the DOO method and a description of the problem situation.

The third stage is idea generation. Brainstorming sessions are recommended to be no less than 20 minutes and no more than 1 hour, depending on the activity of the participants. It is advisable to record the expressed ideas on a tape recorder so as not to “miss” a single idea and be able to systematize them for the next stage.

The fourth stage is the systematization of ideas expressed at the generation stage. The systematization of ideas by the problem situation analysis group is carried out in the following sequence: a nomenclature list of all the ideas expressed is compiled; each of the ideas is formulated in commonly used terms; duplicate and complementary ideas are identified; duplicating and (or) complementary ideas are combined and formed into one complex idea; signs are distinguished by which ideas can be combined; ideas are combined into groups according to the selected features; a list of ideas is compiled by groups (in each group, ideas are written in the order of their generality from more general to particular, supplementing or developing more general ideas).

The fifth stage is the destruction (destruction) of systematized ideas (a specialized procedure for evaluating ideas for practical feasibility in the process of brainstorming, when each of them is subjected to comprehensive criticism from the brainstorming participants).

The basic rule of the destruction stage is to consider each of the systematized ideas only from the point of view of obstacles to its implementation, i.e., the participants in the attack put forward conclusions that reject the systematized idea. Especially valuable is the fact that in the process of destruction a counteridea can be generated that formulates the existing restrictions and puts forward an assumption about the possibility of removing these restrictions.

The sixth stage is the assessment of criticisms and the compilation of a list of practically applicable ideas.

The method of collective generation of ideas has been tested in practice and allows you to find a group solution when determining options development of the object of forecasting, excluding the path of compromises, when a consensus cannot be considered the result of an impartial analysis of the problem.

Depending on the rules adopted and the rigidity of their implementation, there are direct brainstorming, the method of exchange of opinions, methods such as commissions, courts (when one group makes as many proposals as possible, and the second tries to criticize them as much as possible), etc. Recently, sometimes brainstorming is carried out in the form of a business game.

In practice, the similarity of the OIG sessions are various kinds of meetings - constructors, meetings of scientists and scientific councils, specially created temporary commissions.

In real conditions, it is quite difficult to ensure strict compliance with the required rules, to create an “atmosphere of brainstorming”, the influence of the official structure of the organization interferes with the designers and councils: it is difficult to gather specialists for interdepartmental commissions. Therefore, it is desirable to use methods of attracting competent specialists that do not require their mandatory presence in a specific place and at a specific time and verbal expression of their opinions.

2. DELPHI METHOD. ESSENCE AND FEATURES OF APPLICATION.

One of the most popular expert methods is the Delphi method.

Among the varieties of expert methods is the Delphi method. In 1970 - 1980. Separate methods have been created that allow, to a certain extent, to organize the statistical processing of the opinions of expert experts and achieve a more or less agreed opinion. The Delphi method is one of the most common methods of expert assessment of the future, i.e. expert forecasting. This method was developed by the American research corporation RAND and serves to determine and evaluate the likelihood of certain events.

The Delphi method, or the Delphi Oracle method, was originally proposed by O. Helmer and his colleagues as an iterative brainstorming procedure that would help reduce the impact psychological factors when repeating meetings and increasing the objectivity of the results. However, almost simultaneously, "Delphi" procedures became a means of increasing the objectivity of expert surveys using quantitative assessments in the evaluation of the "goal tree" and in the development of "scenarios".

The specificity of this method lies in the fact that the generalization of the results of the study is carried out by an individual written survey of experts in several rounds according to a specially developed research procedure.

The reliability of the Delphi method is considered high when forecasting for a period of 1 to 3 years, as well as for a more distant period of time. Depending on the purpose of the forecast, from 10 to 150 experts can be involved in obtaining expert estimates.

The Delphi method is based on the following principle: in inexact sciences, expert opinions and subjective judgments must necessarily replace the exact laws of causality reflected by the natural sciences.

The expert survey procedure according to the Delphi method is built in several stages.

Stage 1. Formation of the working group

Task working group is to organize the procedure of expert survey.

Stage 2. formation of an expert group

In accordance with the Delphi method, the expert group should include 10-15 experts in the field. The competence of experts is determined by questioning, analysis of the level of abstracting (the number of references to the work of this specialist), the use of self-assessment sheets.

Stage 3. Formulation of questions

The wording of the questions should be clear and unambiguously interpreted, assuming unambiguous answers.

Stage 4. examination

The Delphi method involves repeating several steps of the survey. According to the results of the first survey, extreme, so-called "heretical" opinions are singled out, and the authors of these opinions substantiate their point of view, followed by a discussion. This allows, on the one hand, all experts to take into account the arguments of the supporters of extreme points of view, on the other hand, it gives the latter an opportunity to rethink their point of view and either further substantiate it, or reject it. After the discussion, the survey is conducted again in order to provide an opportunity for the experts to take into account the results of the discussion. And so it is repeated 4 - 5 times until the points of view of experts converge.

Stage 5. Summing up the results of the survey

According to the Delphi method, the median is taken as the final opinion of experts, that is, the average value in an ordered series of opinions. If a series ordered by the magnitude of responses (for example, responses to a question about the price of an innovative product) includes n values: P1, P2, ..., Pn, then the opinion M, defined as follows, is taken as the final assessment based on the survey results:

M \u003d Pk, if n \u003d 2k-1

M \u003d (Pk + Pk + 1) / 2, if n \u003d 2k,

where k = 1, 2, 3,…

The Delphi method allows you to generalize the opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion. It has all the shortcomings of forecasts built on the basis of expert assessments. However, the work carried out by the RAND Corporation to improve this system has significantly increased the flexibility, speed and accuracy of forecasting. The Delphi method is characterized by three features that distinguish it from the usual methods of group interaction of experts. These features include:

a) anonymity of experts;

b) using the results of the previous round of the survey;

c) statistical characteristic of the group response.

Anonymity lies in the fact that during the procedure of expert evaluation of the predicted phenomenon, the object, the participants of the expert group are unknown to each other. At the same time, the interaction of group members when filling out questionnaires is completely eliminated. As a result of this statement, the author of the answer can change his mind without publicly announcing it.

The statistical characteristic of the group response involves processing the results obtained using following methods measurements: ranking, pairwise comparison, sequential comparison and direct evaluation.

In the development of the Delphi method, cross-correction is applied. The future event is presented as a huge set of connected and passing into each other paths of development. With the introduction of cross-correlation, the value of each event due to the introduced certain relationships will change either positively or negatively, thereby adjusting the probabilities of the events under consideration. For the purpose of the future correspondence of the model to real conditions, elements of randomness can be introduced into the model.

The main means of increasing the objectivity of the results when applying the Delphi method are the use of feedback, familiarizing experts with the results of the previous round of the survey and taking these results into account when assessing the significance of expert opinions.

In specific techniques that implement the Delphi procedure, this tool is used to varying degrees. So, in a simplified form, a sequence of iterative brainstorming cycles is organized. In a more complex version, a program of sequential individual surveys is developed using questionnaires that exclude contacts between experts, but provide for their acquaintance with each other's opinions between rounds. Questionnaires from tour to tour can be updated. To reduce factors such as suggestion or accommodation to the opinion of the majority, sometimes it is required that experts substantiate their point of view, but this does not always lead to the desired result, but, on the contrary, may increase the effect of adjustment. In the most advanced methods, experts are assigned weight coefficients of the significance of their opinions, calculated on the basis of previous surveys, refined from round to round, and taken into account when obtaining generalized assessment results.

Due to the complexity of processing the results and significant time costs, the originally envisaged Delphi methods are not always possible to implement in practice. Recently, the Delphi procedure in one form or another usually accompanies any other methods of system modeling - morphological, network, etc. In particular, a very promising idea for the development of methods of expert assessments, proposed at the time by V.M. Glushkov, is to combine a purposeful multi-stage survey with a "scan" of the problem in time, which becomes quite feasible in the conditions of the algorithmization of such a (quite complex) procedure and the use of computer technology.

To increase the effectiveness of surveys and activate experts, the Delphi procedure is sometimes combined with elements of a business game: the expert is invited to conduct self-assessment, putting himself in the place of a designer who is actually assigned to carry out a project, or in the place of an employee of the management apparatus, the head of the appropriate level of the organizational management system, etc. .d.

The disadvantage of this method is that the problem of correlating scientific and technological shifts is very complex, since in real life the magnitude of the correlation is very difficult to measure, the correlations are fuzzy and vary widely depending on the achievement under consideration.

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