planning horizon

Often we do projects lasting several months. At the same time, the planning horizon for teams in Sibiriks is about five weeks. In the arrangement for sprints - 3-5 sprints (depending on the experience of a particular team).

Vladimir Zavertailov

SPIK | Agile Marketing Agency, coordinator,
Sibiriks, scrum studio, CEO

I use two monitors, Google calendar, Scrumban, shared notebook
and hourglass. The method itself is constantly being improved, but general principles remain unchanged: keep all projects handy in handwritten form + manage the movement of projects on a virtual kanban board.

The procedure itself takes 2 hours per week. This time is enough to plan the workload for about 35-50 people. It is convenient to do either early Monday morning, or Friday afternoon, or
on Sunday evening.

Step 1. Concentration on planning. Lined

Planning is one of the most tedious tasks that I cannot delegate. I hate her. In addition, I am quite lazy, and always try to postpone planning until the most last moment. However, I know
that in return I will get clarity and control over the situation. It encourages you to start. Around Sunday at 6pm.

Although all information on projects is in in electronic format- I deliberately copy it on paper. This gives a complete picture of loading commands.
and allows you to restore a sense of control - usually it leaves me completely in two weeks (if I missed a planning meeting)
or one trip.

So, in the general notebook, first of all, I write down in the column the employees who are engaged in production. If there are teams in the department (we have development), then I group them by teams. If there are no teams within the department, I group them entirely by department, for example, design or copywriting.

At the top of the sheet I write the dates and cross out every five working days
(There are enough cells in a notebook for exactly 5 weeks - it coincides with the length of our planning horizon). It turns out like this:

From time to time there are guys who do the project solo or roam between the teams. It's bad and I know about it.

If you come across holidays- I stroke.

In addition to production, there is a customer service and sales department. I write them down on the other side of the notebook spread. So what will be there:

• The names of project managers, under each two columns - in one, projects in progress, in the other, future projects, but for which you already need to plan resources.
• Below the list project managers my account managers(they are responsible for the initial work with the client, clarifying any requirements for the project and collecting other "input data"). Next to them, I will keep a list of deals that they are overseeing this week.

Ruling takes about 20 minutes and allows me to concentrate on the task at hand.

Step 2. Planning for what is guaranteed to happen

The next thing I do is fire up Google Calendar and open the teams' work calendars in sequence. The calendar contains scheduled sprints and projects for which people are already reserved (these are ongoing projects that are already being worked on).

I put this information into my spreadsheet. Thus, I see a guaranteed download. Immediately paint over the holidays of employees,
so as not to accidentally schedule this time for projects.

Step 3. Compiling a list of projects

To do this, I open Scrumban on the second monitor, in which I have project cards for all phases. The card is the passport of the project.
I update them once a week, on Mondays, at managerial meetings (more on that sometime next time).

I read the card, transfer the name of the project to the table with the project manager (on paper), study the project checklists (this is a list of typical actions that must be done in each phase - such as “issue an invoice”, “take feedback”, etc.), I remember whether these actions were taken, if not, I put the corresponding tasks in the plan for project managers. If for some projects I know that resources will be needed, I book them in Google Calendar for the corresponding team. For each project or sprint, the estimated labor intensity is indicated.

If right now I can't schedule resources, for example, I don't know
100% status of the project or not sure which team will fit better -
I move it to a dedicated New Projects calendar.

As a result, I form a list of current projects at project managers, I create a part of the tasks that will be needed when maintaining the project, I more densely fill the planning horizon and Google calendar for specific teams.

This operation is approximately 40 minutes.

Step 4. Processing deals from CRM

Next, I open deals from CRM and go through them sequentially. Some of them have been transferred project managers(I write down such transactions in the first column, next to the last name project manager). But most of of which is assigned to accounts. These potential deals I bring
in the corresponding list next to the account name.

Analysis of applications from CRM takes about 10 minutes.

Those projects that are likely to go to work and require special attention - I mark in my notebook.

Today there will be an important, albeit somewhat boring post that will explain the difference in living standards between people who started together. You know how it happens - it’s like they studied at the same school, then at the same vocational school, got a job together at the same factory ... but now 20 years have passed, and one has everything, and the second last horseradish without salt eats up, watching the first with some mixture jealousy and confusion.

If you look at the root, then the planning horizon influences the change in the standard of living most of all. Take, for example, the automatic cat grooming devices that some commentators made fun of me the day before yesterday. When I bought a cat toilet and an automatic feeder, my calculations were something like this:

1. Let's say it takes 10 minutes a day to service a cat.
2. That's 60 hours per year, or 600 hours over 10 years.
3. average salary in St. Petersburg - 250 rubles per hour.
4. For 10 years, the savings will amount to 150 thousand rubles. We must take.

In practice, of course, the calculations were somewhat more complicated - it was also necessary to take into account the cost of cartridges, the drop in morale after daily cleaning of the tray, and a couple of less important factors. But you get the point - the planning horizon in this case was taken at 10 years.

Another real life situation. Need to buy a car. You can take a used Lada Grant for 250 thousand rubles, or you can take, say, a new Peugeot 408 for a million. If you count a year ahead, a new car is even more profitable - you can install it over 5 years and pay on a loan, say, 17 thousand rubles a month.

The one who counts a year ahead will spend about two million, since in 5 years it will be profitable for him to change the car for a new one, and the one who counts 10 years ahead will drive the old “grant” for 10 years. It is easy to see that in 20 years the difference will be 3.5 million rubles, with which you can now buy a one-room apartment in a good area in St. Petersburg, and then use the money saved on rent to drive a good car for the rest of your life.

Another situation from my professional area. The girl works as an assistant accountant with a salary of 30 thousand rubles. She can grow up to a full-fledged accountant with a salary of 45 thousand, but for this she needs to go to accounting courses for six months, and even pay 35 thousand for training.

If a girl thinks six months or a year ahead, this combination is obviously not interesting for her - until she learns, until she changes jobs, until she passes probation... there is no point in bothering at all.

If a girl thinks 10 years ahead, the courses become much more interesting.

Costs - 500 hours of study time with a salary of 30 thousand rubles a month can be estimated at 100 thousand rubles. The cost of the courses themselves is another 35 thousand. Total 135 thousand rubles. Income - a year later, the girl begins to earn an additional 15 thousand rubles a month. For 9 years, it turns out 1 million 620 thousand rubles. The project is certainly paying off, and with a huge overlap.

You already got the idea. Now, as a summary, I will say extremely politically incorrect things, on the verge of Roskomnadzor.

AT different countries planned differently. In the poor countries of Africa, the planning horizon hardly reaches a couple of hours. If you ask a Negro to dig a small hole in an hour, and promise to give him a dollar if successful, there is a chance that the hole will be dug. If you offer a Negro to work for a month for a salary of $ 200, with a high degree of probability the Negro will refuse. A month is too far away for him.

In Germany, on the contrary, it is customary to plan 20-30 years ahead. An ordinary German would prefer to buy a more expensive metal teapot in the expectation that it will serve him for at least 25 years. A German real estate buyer with a serious look will ask the agent for a plan for the development of the area until 2050.

We are somewhere in the middle between blacks and Germans. Some of us live by the principle “no need to worry, suddenly tomorrow a brick will fall on your head, and you, like a fool, have built plans for the future.” Others, on the contrary, already in their youth are figuring out how they will live in retirement. The standard of living of the former is on average closer to the standard of living of the Negroes, and the standard of living of the latter is closer to the standard of living of the Germans.

It is understandable. If you are running a marathon distance, but rely on your strength only for the next 100 meters, you do not have very many chances to show a decent result.

PS. Of course, those who do not plan anything have their own reasons. The main one is: "why plan if there is no 100% guarantee that the plan will be implemented." To save time, I will object to this thesis right in the article: even if only 20-30% of plans come true, planning is still more profitable than living one day.

Your decisions depend on the planning time horizon.

Just about planning

You might think that planning is a scientific term from some book "Economics of the Enterprise" or another time management training.

Let's drop all the false science full of abstractions and look at the life of an ordinary, living person.

If you think that you are not planning, then it is not true. In all conversations about the future, add the expression "I plan": to go / buy / learn / earn - and you will understand that this is so.
We are constantly planning.

And we plan in everyday life, quotes from life:

• How are you planning to spend your weekend?
• Let's get married in the fall.
• We will buy a car in the spring - the prices are lower.

Planning is primarily a thought process. This is not necessarily a written plan on paper, or worse, a 20-page business plan.

Planning is the analysis of actions to change the future.
This is a look into the future, and an analysis of how to get there.

Planning is a reflection of responsibility

Many "people" do not like to plan their lives, and in general they are afraid of such expressions. Yes, their current situation scares them, but when they look that the next 10 years nothing good shines - they immediately hide in a mink.

When you are irresponsible about your life, how it flows, what happens in it, then the word “planning” is slag. Some take an iPhone on credit instead of going to the seaside.

Responsible attitude to life - taking responsibility for the consequences of decisions made. Not to be confused with responsibility for non-compliance with the rules and norms of behavior at the enterprise - this is a whip, not a responsibility.

Without understanding what today's action will bring in the future, it is impossible to plan. Most do not take responsibility for their lives (in broad sense). Therefore, it does not plan for the long term.

Planning horizon in the "wheel"

The planning horizon is the foresight of the plan.

Simple workers "plan" life with a time horizon of 1 month. "Pay to Pay".
If the salary was paid once a week, the horizon would be reduced to the 1st week.
Who else takes a loan, can not even cope with such a simple task.

In general, they cope with planning in 1 month. This is already good, you just need to get out of the vicious circle and look a little ahead. And who does not expand the time horizon of planning - continues to run in this wheel.

What goal does a person set for himself, planning only 1 month ahead?
Hold on until next month. Of course, not everything is so simple, but almost exactly the same.

Many, at the same time, show miracles of strategic thinking - they plan vacations in a year - that's power!
They don’t know if there will be enough money until the end of the month, but they know that in a year from August 12 to 18 they will be on vacation.
It is a pity that they did not decide this themselves, but they are given the opportunity to take a break from running in the wheel.

Your planning horizon

No one is as interesting to us as we are. Come on about us. Let's move on to "you".

Turn off the critic and the debater. Let's just think together. If you feel like arguing, track down why, avoid uncomfortable question?

Where will you be tomorrow? Life flows in the usual way. If today is Monday and you are at work, then 100% tomorrow you are also at work. Step back from the “well, anything can happen” answer.

Do you know where you will be in 10 years? What do you do, how and with whom do you live?
Here you think. Do not waste time reading the article and ignoring the most important. Think about the answer, or close the page. Don't stare blankly at the screen for 2 minutes, it won't help.
You will answer: "No one knows ...". Yes, I agree. But this is an attempt to avoid an answer that you don't have. Be careful.

I hope you saw a bright picture interesting, happy life. That's your dream.

Now define your planning horizon:

• After 1 month. What will you do to get closer to this dream?
  If there are no conscious actions to approach the dream, the horizon is a month.
  Maybe you are waiting special occasion to get into your desired future? How long have you been waiting?
  If there is a connection, we move on.
• After 1 year. What will you do to get closer to your dream?
  You know? Then you know how you will be there in 10 years. You have at least a planning horizon of 10 years, or even more.

If you have a planning horizon of 5-10 or more years, then I have nothing special to tell you. Are you cool or cool!

If you plan your life every year, maybe you have a tradition - to plan for the next year. But you don’t make plans for more than 1 year, because you don’t know how life will turn out.

I propose this option: write down your dream, pour your bright future in 10 years on paper, but not in 2-3 words, but on 2-3 pages. Add as many details as possible: Where do you live? With whom? Where you work and what do you do? Rest? What about creativity, hobbies? What is your lifestyle?

You change, and change with you - a dream, correct it. Just a detailed description of the dream in 10 years - will allow you to check it out. This will be your new planning horizon.

If you have a planning horizon of 1 month, "from paycheck to paycheck" - stop humpbacking! Think about yourself. No dream - create. If you have a dream, start moving towards it. Make it so that your daily activities gradually take you out of the “wheel”. You can't run, so at least you will go towards your dream. Why do you need a vicious circle?

At your leisure, think about how you would plan your life with a horizon of 1000 years?

planning horizon

Depending on which horizon (period) of time the plans drawn up by the organization cover, planning is divided into three types:

long term planning;

medium term planning;

short term planning.

The classification of planning according to the duration of the planning horizon should not be confused with the previous classification - according to the temporal orientation of ideas. The division of types according to the temporal orientation of ideas implies the existence of fundamentally different planning philosophies depending on the attitude to the past, present and future. The division of planning into long-term, medium-term and short-term means the difference in the length of time required to fulfill the planned indicators, and is of a technical nature.

Long term planning usually covers long periods of time - from 10 to 25 years. At one time, long-term planning was identified with strategic, but now these two concepts exist separately. Strategic planning in its content is much more complicated than long-term planning. It is not a way of simply lengthening the planning period, that is, strategic planning is not just a function of time. Strategic planning will be discussed in more detail in the following sections.

Medium term planning concretizes the milestones defined by the long-term plan. It may be for a shorter period. Until recently, the medium-term planning horizon was five years. However, the unforeseen nature and rate of change external environment forced many firms to reduce the length of their plans from five to three years, respectively, five-year plans moved into the category of long-term ones.

short term planning- this is the development of plans for one or two years (usually short-term plans are annual plans). Short-term plans include specific ways in which the organization's resources will be used to achieve the goals defined in the longer-term plans. The content of short-term plans is detailed by quarters and months.

All three types of planning should be linked to each other and not contradict each other.

In addition to the three classification methods indicated, there is a division of planning types depending on the importance of one or another type in the process of planning activities. Hence, planning is divided into two main types: strategic and operational.

Strategic and operational planning.

The planning process in economic organization

The entire planning process in an economic organization can be divided into two main stages: the development of a firm's strategy (strategic planning) and the determination of tactics for implementing the developed strategy (operational, or, what is the same, tactical planning).

Strategic planning

The concept of "strategy" is of Greek origin. Initially, it had a military meaning and meant "the art of the general" to find right ways to achieve victory.

The strategy of an economic organization is a set of its main goals and the main ways to achieve these goals. In other words, to develop a strategy for the firm means to determine the general directions of its activities.

A strategy cannot simply be a definition of desired goals and convenient ways to implement them. Wishful thinking is not the same as developing a strategy. The strategy should not come from pleasant dreams, but from the real possibilities for the development of the company. Therefore, strategy is, first of all, the organization's response to the objective external and internal circumstances of its activities.

Typically, strategic planning is designed for a long period, although in many organizations the strategy is based on medium-term planning (the second method is more acceptable for Russian organizations operating in conditions of extremely high uncertainty). At the same time, strategic and long-term planning, as already noted, are ambiguous processes. Strategy is not a function of time, but first of all direction function. It is not just focused on a given period of time, but includes a set of global ideas for the development of the company.

Responsibility for developing a strategy lies primarily with the management of an economic organization, since strategic planning requires high responsibility, large-scale coverage of actions by the manager. The planning team provides strategic planning with an analytical approach to making decisions about the future of the firm.

tactical planning

The term "tactics" is also originally a military term of Greek origin, meaning the maneuvering of forces suitable for the implementation of given goals. Tactical planning deals with decisions about how an organization's resources should be allocated to achieve strategic goals. Tactical planning usually covers the short and medium term, that is, it is the subject of concern for middle and lower management.

 A concrete example of one of the directions of the strategy could be a farmer's decision to enter the production of products under his own brand (in particular, the production of chickens in special packaging). Then tactical planning may include the following tasks:

the creation of new production facilities (say, by acquiring a chicken processing plant or acquiring a neighboring farm that has one);

special training in marketing and personnel training;

creating a more mobile distribution system, establishing contacts with new outlets.

What are the main differences between strategic and tactical planning?

Main Question strategic planning – what the organization wants to achieve. Tactical planning focuses on as the organization must reach this state. That is, the difference between strategic and tactical planning is the difference between ends and means.

Other differences:

decision-making at the tactical planning level tends to be less subjective because tactical planners have more good, specific information available. In tactical planning, computer-based technologies are applicable. quantitative methods analysis;

the implementation of tactical decisions is better monitored, less risky, since such decisions are mainly related to internal problems;

tactical decisions are easier to evaluate, as they can be expressed in more specific numerical results (for example, it is more difficult for a farmer to evaluate the specific benefits of introducing products under his own brand than to calculate the increase in the production of chickens in special packaging when acquiring new production facilities);

tactical planning is also characterized by an attraction to the levels of individual divisions - product, regional, functional.

operational planning means almost the same thing as tactical planning. The term "operational" is more vivid than the term "tactical", it emphasizes that this is the planning of individual operations in the general economic flow in the short and medium periods, for example, production planning, marketing planning, etc. Operational planning is also understood as the organization's budgeting.

The planning process in an organization

Planning activities can be divided into several main stages (Figure 3.1).

differences

Feedback (corrective information)

Rice. 3.1 Planning activities in an economic organization

The process of planning, or the direct process of planning, that is, making decisions about the future goals of the organization and how to achieve them. The result of the planning process is a system of plans (4).

Activities for the implementation of planned decisions. The results of this activity are the real performance indicators of the organization (5).

Results control. At this stage, real results are compared with planned indicators, as well as the creation of prerequisites for adjusting the organization's actions in the right direction. Despite the fact that control is the last stage of planning activities, its importance is very high, since it is control that establishes the effectiveness of the planning process in the organization (3).

Thus, The planning process is the first stage of the overall activity of the company.

The planning process is not an easy one. subsequence planning operations and procedure, the meaning of which is that one event must necessarily occur after another. The process requires great flexibility and managerial skill. If certain points in the process do not meet the objectives of the organization, they can be bypassed, which is not possible in the procedure. The people involved in the planning process do not just perform the functions assigned to them, but act creatively and are capable of changing the nature of the action if circumstances so require.

The business planning process consists of a series of steps following each other (Fig. 3.2).

Rice. 3.2 The planning process in an economic organization

First stage. The firm conducts research on the external and internal environment of the organization. Identifies the main components of the organizational environment, highlights those that really matter to the organization, collects and monitors information about these components, makes forecasts for the future state of the environment, and assesses the real situation of the company.

Second phase. The firm sets guidelines for its activities: vision, mission, set of goals. Sometimes the stage of setting goals precedes the analysis of the environment.

The third stage. Strategic analysis. The company compares the goals (desired indicators) and the results of studies of external and internal environmental factors (limiting the achievement of the desired indicators), determines the gap between them. With the help of methods of strategic analysis, various options for the strategy are formed.

Fourth stage. The choice of one of the alternative strategies and its development are made.

Fifth stage. The final strategic plan of the company is being prepared.

Sixth stage. Medium term planning. Medium-term plans and programs are being prepared.

Seventh stage. Based on the strategic plan and the results of medium-term planning, the firm develops annual operational plans and projects.

Eighth and ninth stages not being stages of the direct planning process, nevertheless, they determine the prerequisites for creating new plans, which should take into account:

what the organization managed to do, realizing its plans;

what is the gap between planned indicators and actual performance.

In general, the planning process is a closed cycle with direct (from developing a strategy to determining operational plans to implementation and control) and reverse (from taking into account the results of implementation to reformulating the plan) communication.

3.2 System of firm plans

The result of the planning process is a system of plans. The plan includes key performance indicators to be achieved by the end of the planning period. Essentially, a plan is a set of instructions for managers describing what role each part of the organization should play in the process of achieving the firm's goals.

The planning process is complex and varied. This determines the complex nature of the system of plans, which can be divided into the following elements.

Strategic plan, otherwise called the master plan of the company (often drawn up 5 years in advance).

Company-wide plans drawn up in continuation of the strategic plan and defining the main tasks of the organization's development. The basis of these plans is the developed plan.

Operational plans of the organization:

company-wide plans for current activities, the so-called "economic plans", or " profit plans", are calculated for one year. With the help of plans current activities goods and services are produced and placed on the market;

current plans of subdivisions, including budgetary ones, complement the company-wide plans for current activities.

In addition to plans, the outputs of the planning process are programs(or plans-programs) and projects.

strategic plan includes a vision and mission, common goals that determine the place of the organization in the future, selected action strategies. An integral part of the strategic plan is the policy of the organization. The strategic plan includes the global programs of the organization.

The strategic plan is the guideline for acceptance decisions at lower levels; the general goals of the organization, defined in the strategic plan, are specified in the goals of current activities, called tasks. In addition, the strategic plan is a limiter for plans of lower levels, since it limits the number of resources needed to solve the tasks of operational planning.

The action plans of any organization can be characterized as either offensive or defensive. Offensive plans involve the development of the organization: the production of new goods and services, entering new markets, gaining competitive advantage. Offensive plans are usually created by large firms with high economic potential.

Medium and small firms in many cases are content with defensive plans aimed at maintaining their positions in the market and preventing the bankruptcy of the company.

Organization development plan, being an expression of offensive plans, it includes a set of measures necessary to create new areas of the company's activities. The development plan should determine the ways to enter new positions and be able to answer the following questions.

What will be the conditions of demand in the future, what goods and services will consumers expect from this economic organization?

What should be the nature of the internal elements of the organization necessary for its development?

What new types of products should be added to the nomenclature of the enterprise or what part of the main products should be replaced by new goods and services?

textbook for students higher training establishments Publishing house NORMA Moscow, 2001 Authors textbook: M. A. Sazhina, doctor economic... 162 § 5. Planning and production ... cool business; manifold... Specially for... facilities for investment. Enterprise...

1.4. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

If we compare the manager with the captain of the ship, then the problem of choosing a path becomes clearer. Where to sail? Tools for answering this question are provided by strategic management, i.e. strategic planning and management.

1.4.1. Planning pyramid in strategic management

The first and main of the main functions of management (see chapter 1.2) is the function of forecasting and planning. Consider its components in relation to strategic planning.

Strategic planning should not be confused with long-term planning - usually for 10-15 years. The horizon of strategic planning depends on what kind of work the organization is engaged in. Strategic planning for the nuclear power industry is planning for decades ahead, and for trading company- two or three years ahead. The time to which strategic planning relates will come well after the end of the work that the organization is currently doing. Moreover, the boundaries of the time interval of strategic planning are blurred.

Company mission. When planning, obviously, one must proceed from what the company is intended for, what is its "mission" in the business world. For example, the mission of Avion is to carry out safe and profitable air transportation of passengers and cargo. The mission of the company is Moscow State Technical University. N.E. Bauman” - to train students and graduate students in the traditions of the Russian system of engineering education (in the relevant specialties).

In the most general terms, strategic management is a means of ensuring that the company fulfills its mission. Goal setting is the most difficult and responsible stage of planning. Formulating a firm's mission is the most important decision for founders and top managers. Changing the mission actually means closing the old company and opening a new one in its place, even if under the same name. The mission is the core of the company, the most stable part of its body. (Note that the company should be compared with a living organism, and not with a soulless dead machine!)

strategic goals. The specification of the company's mission is its strategic goals, i.e. fixed goals over a long period for which strategic planning is carried out. For Avion, such goals may be:

· expansion of the market segment in transatlantic transportation; improving flight safety;

· raising the general and professional level of training of personnel (pilots, technicians, stewardesses, managers, etc.);

Creation of a favorable social climate in the team;

Maintaining the composition of the air fleet and ground support at a level not lower than that of competitors, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" strategic goals may be:

raising the high scientific level of the teaching staff (and for this, the development of scientific research at the university at the world level), mastering it modern technologies teaching, equipped teaching materials on paper and electronic media;

· organizing a recruitment of well-trained applicants who are able to master the specialties taught at the institute at a level that gives graduates the necessary competitiveness in the labor market;

creation and maintenance of the material and technical base necessary for the implementation of a high-quality educational process;

Ensuring the necessary control over the quality of work of teachers and students, etc.

Obviously, for strategic purposes, it is practically impossible to give numerical values ​​for the parameters to be achieved, or the time frame in which this must be done. It would be a simplification to say that the timeframe for achieving the strategic goal is, say, 10 years. It is more correct not to determine the term, but to discuss long-term planning for an indefinite period of time. Some strategic goals, such as achieving superiority over competitors, must be constantly achieved.

Company tasks. The next level of specification is the tasks that must be solved in order to achieve a particular strategic goal. For example, for the Avion company, the tasks may be:

99% yield of the aircraft arrival on time;

· Creation of a system of annual retraining of pilots and stewardesses;

· annual purchase of at least 3 modern aircraft, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" the tasks may be:

· Ensuring the presence of at least 20% of professors - doctors of science and 50% of associate professors - candidates of science in the teaching staff;

Ensuring a favorable age composition of teachers (for example, the average age of teachers should not be less than 40 and more than 50 years);

Ensuring regular scientific work of teachers (for example, everyone must publish at least 5 scientific works and speak at least at 3 conferences of the All-Russian and international level);

· in the system of pre-university training, applicants in various schools, circles, and courses should attend at least 4,000 schoolchildren annually;

Departments of the Institute should be equipped with computers, combined in electronic network providing email inside the institute and giving teachers and students direct access to the Internet, etc.

Although there are numerical parameters in some of the tasks listed, they are still not enough for specific planning and control, so the next level of planning is fully defined specific tasks, the degree of completion of which can be unambiguously assessed.

specific tasks. Consider, for example, the above task for the company "Avion" - reaching 99% of the indicator of aircraft arrival on time. First of all, you need to add a due date, for example, within 2 years. Then the task becomes a specific task, for which further analysis is required. First of all, what are the reasons for the planes not arriving on time? Some of the reasons are obvious - a headwind that delays planes, a sidewind that deviates them from the optimal route calculated in the absence of wind, and a tailwind that delivers them to their destination airport ahead of schedule. To eliminate the influence of wind at the time of aircraft arrival, it is necessary to develop aircraft control algorithms and coordinate them with ground services. You can also ask a counter question - do all flights have to arrive just in time? A positive answer is obvious if the destination is a major airport where 1-2 planes land every minute. If, on the other hand, 1-2 planes per week land at the field airfield and the flight is not urgent, then it obviously makes sense to sacrifice the accuracy of arrival for the sake of, for example, saving fuel or improving flight safety. It is quite reasonable to correct a specific task, task, strategic goal or even the mission of the company as a result of careful planning analysis.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman", the task was indicated to have at least 20% of professors - doctors of sciences and 50% of associate professors - candidates of sciences in the composition of teachers. To turn this task into a set of specific tasks, it is necessary :

Analyze the composition of the staff at the moment,

Predict its natural change (as a result of the retirement of older teachers, the transition of other employees to another job, etc.),

Assess the opportunities for professional development (thesis defense) for specific employees, as well as the possibility of attracting new staff.

After that, it will be possible to plan an active personnel policy and evaluate its results in improving the professional level of staff. Is the task at all achievable? And if it is achievable, then in what time frame? And after all the described analysis, a specific action plan should be approved.

We discussed the entire planning pyramid - from the top (the mission of the top) through the second layer - strategic goals (there are usually no more than 10 of them) and the third - tasks (tens of tasks can be directed to achieve strategic goals, so the total number of tasks of the company can be estimated as 100) to the foot - specific tasks. Each task may require a dozen specific tasks, so the total number of specific tasks performed in any large firm is thousands. The planning technology discussed in Chapter 1.2 makes it possible to turn thousands of individual specific tasks into a general plan for the work of the company, balanced in terms of material, personnel and financial costs. This plan is very specific for the near future (say, a year), and moves to more and more general (non-specific, indefinite, vague) formulations as it moves away into the future.

Arrow "Present - Future". As already noted, the planning process was previously analyzed in detail. In the case of strategic management, a feature of this process is the aspiration to the distant future. We are moving from the particular to the general, which corresponds to the movement from the bustle of the present to the far horizon of planning - the mountain peaks of the future:

specific tasks - tasks - strategic goals -

- company mission.

At the same time, when moving from the bottom of the planning pyramid to its top, the questions we answer change as follows:

What exactly needs to be done? What do you need to achieve in general? Why are we working?

When moving from the short term to the long term, we go through the following stages of planning:

operational planning - business planning -

- strategy Development.

Operational planning is understood as plans for the near future, primarily related to the implementation of current work under existing contracts (orders). Operational planning is usually short-term - something between one day and one year.

"Long term" refers to the analysis and planning of changes that should not end very soon, say, in ten years. This is exactly the typical period from an idea to the release of a new brand of car or aircraft.

In the interval between long-term and short-term planning is medium-term planning - for 3 - 5 years. And between strategic and operational planning is business planning, which answers the question: “What will we do after completing all the available orders?”

Comparison of strategic and operational management. Strategic planning is the basis of strategic management. In addition to the function of forecasting and planning, other basic management functions are “included”, discussed in chapter 1.2. Comparison of strategic and operational management by nine features is presented in Table 1, taken from the monograph.

Table 1.

Comparison of strategic and operational management

signs	Strategic management	Operational management
Hierarchical steps	Mostly at the senior management level	Includes all levels with main focus on middle management
Uncertainty	Significantly higher
Problem type	Most problems are not structured	Relatively well structured
time horizon	Emphasis on long-term as well as medium- and short-term aspects	Emphasis on short- and medium-term aspects
Required information	First of all from the external environment	First of all from the enterprise itself
Plan Alternatives	The range of alternatives is broad	Spectrum limited
	Concentration on certain important positions	Covers all functional areas and integrates them
Degree of detail	low	Relatively large
Main controlled values	Potentials for success (e.g. growth in market share)	Profit, profitability, liquidity

Operational management includes, for example, the distribution of profits between dividends and the enterprise development fund. Here there is a conflict between the momentary interests of shareholders and strategic development firms. It is clear that any investments and expenses for the development and implementation of innovations reduce the profit of the current year. But without such expenses, the enterprise is doomed to loss of competitiveness in the future.

Managers are quite often co-owners of the enterprise. Why is it profitable for a shareholder to receive a salary? Because the amount of salary decreases profits, and therefore income tax. Since the same income tax is taken from dividends and salaries (as a percentage), and the income tax rate is less than the income tax rate, the “pumping” of money into salary increases the manager’s income (and, accordingly, reduces deductions to the budget).

Expert methods in strategic management. What will happen in ten years? It is enough to think about this formulation of the question, to analyze how ten years ago we imagined the present day, in order to understand that there simply cannot be 100% reliable forecasts. Instead of statements with specific numbers, only qualitative assessments can be expected. Nevertheless, we must make decisions that will have consequences in ten, twenty, and so on. years. How to be? It remains to turn to the methods expert assessments(chapter 3.4).

1.4.2. Planning horizon problem

in strategic management

Let us continue the discussion begun above of the influence of the choice of the planning horizon on the decisions made. Note that in many real situations, the duration of, for example, an investment project is not fully defined, or the investor's planning horizon does not cover the entire duration of the project until the disposal stage. In such cases, it is important to study the influence of the planning horizon on the decisions made.

Let's consider a hypothetical example. Suppose I am the owner of a factory. If my planning horizon is 1 month, then I will receive the highest cash income by selling the enterprise (including buildings, raw materials, technological equipment, the land on which the enterprise stands - if, of course, I have the right to sell it). If I plan for a year, then I will first incur costs by purchasing raw materials and paying for the labor of workers, and only then, by selling products, will I make a profit. If I plan for 10 years, then I will go to great expense, purchasing licenses and new equipment, with the aim of increasing income in the coming years. When planning for 30 years, it makes sense to invest in the creation and development of your own research center, etc.

We emphasize that real investments (in fixed assets - in buildings, equipment, design developments, etc.), which will pay off in the coming years, will worsen many financial and economic indicators of the enterprise, reduce its profits, reduce profitability indicators, as a result, shareholders will receive - in this year- smaller.

Thus, the popular statement "the firm works to maximize profits" or "the goal of the firm is to maximize profits" does not have an exact meaning. For what period to maximize profit - for a month, a year, 10 or 30 years? The decisions made depend on the planning horizon. Understanding this, a number of Western economists refuse to consider firms as instruments for making profit, prefer to look at them as quasi-living beings trying to ensure the continuation of their existence and further development. Accordingly, strategic management proceeds from the concepts of "company mission", "strategic goals" (for example, strategic goal may take the form: "increase the market share controlled by the firm"), which cannot be directly expressed in monetary units (for more details, see, for example, ).

Before discussing directly the influence of the planning horizon on the decisions made by the manager, let's consider some optimization models used in decision-making (Chapter 3.2 is devoted to optimization methods).

Characterization of models with discounting. Let, for simplicity of presentation, time take discrete values. Then the development of the economic situation is described by the sequence where the variables xj lie in some space X, possibly of a rather complex nature. It should also be noted that the position at the next moment cannot be arbitrary, it is connected with the position at the previous moment. It is easiest to assume that there is some set To such that the result economic activity behind j The th period is described by the value Dependence not only on the initial and final position, but also on the number of the period is explained by the fact that through the number of the period a connection is made with the general economic situation. Wishing to maximize the total results of economic activity, we arrive at the formulation of a standard dynamic programming problem:

Thus, it is necessary to choose a design ( ) that satisfies the above restrictions, on which the functional F m. Naturally, it is assumed that the set of possible transitions To is such that the domain of the functional F m not empty. Under the usual mathematical assumptions, the maximum is reached.

As is known, problem (1) often arises in many applied economic and econometric areas, in macroeconomics, in logistics (inventory management) (see, for example, the monograph).

Models are widely proposed, studied and applied, leading to the following special case of problem (1):

These are models with discounting (as you know, the discount factor). It is natural to try to find out what "internal" properties distinguish problems of type (2) from all problems of type (1). In particular, why is the characteristic so popular? investment project NPV (Net Present Value)- clean present value), relating to characteristics of the discounted type and discussed in detail below (chapter 2.3).

It is of interest to study and compare the plans of the possible economic behavior on the k steps and . (Naturally, we assume that all pairs of neighboring elements are included in the set To.) It is natural to carry out the comparison with the help of functions describing the results of economic activity participating in tasks (1) and (2). Namely, we will say that the plan X 1 better plan X 2 in implementation since i, if

Will write X 1 R(i)X 2, if inequality (3) holds, where R(i)- a binary relation on the set of plans, which specifies the ordering of plans by the relation "better".

It is clear that the ordering of plans for k steps, defined using the binary relation R(i), may depend on i, i.e. The "goodness" of a plan depends on when i it starts to happen. From the point of view of the real economy, this is quite understandable. For example, action plans that are quite rational for a period of stable development are no good for a period of hyperinflation. Conversely, operations acceptable during a period of hyperinflation will not bring an effect in a stable environment.

However, it is easy to see that in models with discounting (2) all orderings R(i) match , i = 1,2, …, m-k. It turns out - this is the main theoretical result of this subsection - that the opposite is also true: if the orderings coincide, then we are dealing with problem (2) - a problem with discounting, and it suffices to match only when k=1.2. Let us formulate in more detail the assumptions about the stability of the ordering of plans.

(I). Let be One of two things is true: either

for all or

for all

(II). Let one of two things be true: either

for all or

for all

As shown in detail for the first time in , under certain intra-mathematical regularity conditions, the stability conditions for the ordering of plans (I) and (II) imply the existence of constants and such that

Since adding a constant does not change the point at which the function reaches its maximum, the last relation means that the stability conditions for the ordering of plans (I) and (II) characterize (in other words, uniquely distinguish) discounted models among all dynamic programming models.

The mathematical conditions under which the discounted model characterization theorem was proved gradually weakened throughout the 1970s (see about this in ), but these intra-mathematical improvements did not affect the economic side of the matter.

Asymptotically optimal plans. Consider model (2) with , i.e. no discount model

Under natural mathematical assumptions, which we will not dwell on, for each m there is an optimal plan for which the optimized function reaches its maximum. Since the choice of the planning horizon cannot be rationally justified, we would like to build an action plan that is close to optimal for different planning horizons. This means that the goal is to build an infinite sequence such that its initial segment of length m, those. , gives approximately the same value of the optimized functional as the value for the optimal plan. An infinite sequence is called an asymptotically optimal plan.

Let us find out whether it is possible to use directly the optimal plan to construct an asymptotically optimal plan. Let's fix k and consider the sequence . It is easy to construct examples showing that, first, the elements in this sequence will change; secondly, they may not have limits. Therefore, optimal plans can behave extremely irregularly, and therefore, in such cases, they cannot be used to construct asymptotically optimal plans.

Nevertheless, it can be proved (the corresponding economic-mathematical theory is developed in chapter 5 of the monograph) that asymptotically optimal plans exist, i.e. one can specify infinite sequences such that

With the help of this approach, the problem of the planning horizon is solved - it is necessary to use asymptotically optimal plans that do not depend on the planning horizon. It is interesting that the optimal trajectory of movement consists of three sections - initial, final and main, and the main section is movement along the highway. A complete analogy with the movement of vehicles: to get somewhere, you must first go to the highway (highway), drive along a good road as close to the goal as possible, then overcome the final section.

1.4.3. Some Decision Methods

in strategic management

Let's consider several widely used practical decision-making tools in strategic management.

Information and tools for strategic planning. The starting points for strategic planning are:
- structure of competitors;
- structure of sales markets;
- trends technical development and the evolution of fashion;
- structure of supply markets;
- legal, social, technological, economic, environmental and political Environment;
- own strengths and weaknesses.

Based on the above data, in accordance with the mission of the company, long-term goals are selected and the resources that are needed for this are analyzed. The tools of strategic planning are, in addition to the method of expert assessments mentioned above, the analysis of "gaps", the analysis of chances and risks (strong and weaknesses), portfolio analysis, checklist method, scoring method, product life cycle concept, and other methods of forecasting, planning and decision making.

When analyzing “gaps”, three possible scenarios for the development of a firm are compared:
- what turnover (profit and other characteristics of the enterprise) can be achieved if nothing changes in the sales process in the future (scenario A);
- what kind of turnover can be achieved if we try to penetrate more intensively with the existing product into the existing markets with the maximum effort of forces (scenario B);
- if in addition (to scenario B) to develop new products and/or new markets (scenario C).

The difference between the results of scenarios B and A is called the operational gap, and between the results of scenarios C and B is called the strategic gap. This terminology emphasizes the role of innovation in a firm's strategic plan - developing new products or entering new markets, or both.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix. In strategic planning, it may be useful to analyze the portfolio of an enterprise (Table 2). It must be borne in mind that this is not about strategic planning for the entire enterprise, but for its “strategic divisions”. They are distinguished by product-market combinations that:
homogeneous, i.e. are aimed at a certain rather homogeneous circle of consumers;
Can operate independently from other departments of the enterprise;
manage a large enough market share so that research to develop a specific strategy is beneficial.

Table 2.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix

By entering the goods (taking into account their share in the company's turnover) in the corresponding cells of Table 2, it is possible to calculate the share of especially successful goods of type 1 (Stars), which may need further funding to increase and consolidate success. Although growth in demand for Type 2 products (Cash Cows) is low, due to their large market share, they can still bring good income for a long time in little-changing (stagnant) markets. The fate of Type 3 (Question Mark) goods is unclear. Are the high financial costs of expanding their market share justified? Goods of type 4 (Dogs) "earn" only their living.

Based on the analysis of Table 2, several possible strategies can be analyzed:
- “build”, i.e. "question marks" to translate into "stars";
- “keep”, i.e. "cash cows" should hold their market shares and strive for growth primarily to support the "stars" and "question marks";
- "harvest", i.e., without taking into account the long-term consequences, skim the cream of the moment (while in question about the "weak" - "cash cows", "dogs" and "question marks");
- “to move out”, i.e. “dogs” and “question marks” are taken off the market (stopped) because they don’t bring anything and are not expected to grow, etc.

When setting goals and strategies further development strategic units need mutual coordination, but without suppression of their identity (in other words, controlled decentralized leadership must be exercised by the management of the company). The company's management must direct individual divisions to attractive markets, discovering and using the synergistic effect from their interaction and rationally allocating resources. Thus, the company's management should ensure that the "cash cows" transfer part of the income to the "stars".

In table. 2 compares such characteristics of the manufactured product as "growth in demand" and "market share". It is clear that high growth corresponds to an early stage life cycle goods, and low - late stage. Usually, a high market share signals a long period of profit, and a low one - a short one. So, a high market share may be due to weak competition. A market leader can have a cost advantage per product - economies of scale!

List and summary evaluation methods. The checklist method and the scoring method are also widely used and very useful strategic planning tools. The first one is quite simple. A number of “success factors” are identified and all projects under consideration are assessed (for example, with the help of a commission of experts) on these factors. For example, Table 3 presents a form of a checklist for projects involving the organization of the release of certain goods (strategies such as "product-market").

Table 3

Checklist Example

Products
degree of innovation
Number of possible buyers
Willingness to cooperate in trade
Barriers to entry of new sellers
Provision with raw materials

Please note that the scores are given in a qualitative way (measured on an ordinal scale - see below in chapter 3.4). Any quantitative certainty would be only an illusion in such assessments.

It is advisable to divide the factors into "obligatory", "necessary" and "desirable". Those. introduce the weights of the factors expressed in qualitative form. The decision rule might be: "Force the planning of those product-to-market strategies in which all of the required factors and at least two of the required factors are 'good'."

The checklist method, in which both the assessments of individual factors and the weights of factors and decision-making methods are of a qualitative nature, corresponds to a quantitative twin - the method of total assessment.

Of course, it is much easier to operate with numbers than with qualitative estimates. No wonder mathematicians are usually eager to "digitize" the qualitative factors and weights. But at the same time, as we know from the theory of measurements (see below Chapter 3.4), subjectivity associated with the choice of the method of "digitizing" qualitative assessments and weights can be introduced into the final conclusions. In connection with what has been said, pay attention to the discussion of decision-making methods based on the use of expert assessments (Chapter 3.4), where, in particular, recommendations are given to reduce subjectivity in the choice of factor weights in a single summary assessment.

Consider a conditional example of calculating and using a single summary score. Let the estimates of factors 1 and 2 for products A and B be given in Table 4 (for simplicity of presentation, we omit the methods for obtaining numerical values ​​in Table 4 and do not consider the errors of these values).

To obtain a summary estimate, it is necessary to know the weights of the factors. Let the experts rate factor 1 as twice as important as factor 2. Since the sum of the weights of the factors must be 1, the weight of factor 1 is 0.67, and that of factor 2 is 0.33.

Table 4

Summary method scoring

Products

The total score for product A is

0.67 x 40% + 0.33 x 50% \u003d 26.8% + 16.5% \u003d 43.3%,

and the total score for product B is

0.67 x 90% + 0.33 x 20% = 60.3% + 6.6% = 66.9%.

However, obtaining summary scores is only a step in the decision-making process. We also need a selection criterion - which products to deal with and which not. The simplest formulation is to define a boundary. If the total estimate of the product is greater than this limit, then the planning work associated with it continues; if not, it is excluded from consideration as unpromising. If in the case under consideration such a boundary is chosen at the level of 55%, then work on product A stops, and work on product B continues.

Note that making a decision based on the boundary somewhat reduces the impact of specific digitization rules. For example, if for product A the ratings for factors A and B rise by 10% and reach 50% and 60%, respectively, then the total rating will be equal to

0.67 x 50% + 0.33 x 60% \u003d 33.5% + 19.8% \u003d 53.3%,

those. the general solution does not change, product A remains among the unpromising ones.

The manager is the main person in long-term planning. If forecasting is a research work, its results can be compared with a searchlight that illuminates the main features of the future, then planning is private view decision making. For strategic planning and management, not only those methods of preparation and decision-making, which are discussed above in this chapter, but also the entire arsenal of modern theory decision making .

However, all these simple or ingenious computer tricks are only an aid to the manager. It is he who is responsible for the fate of the company, and it is on his knowledge of the matter, on his intuition that he must rely when making decisions in strategic management.

Literature

1. Karminsky A.M., Olenev N.I., Primak A.G., Falko S.G. Controlling in business. Methodological and practical foundations for building controlling in organizations. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1998. - 256 p.
2. Management / Ed. J.V. Prokofieva. - M.: Knowledge, 2000. - 288 p.
3. Orlov A.I. Sustainability in socio-economic models. - M.: Nauka, 1979. -296 p.
4. Orlov A. Sur la stabilite "dans les modeles economiques discrets et les modeles de gestion des stocks. // Publications Econometriques. 1977. Vol. X. F. 2. Pp. 63-81.
5. Shmalen G. Fundamentals and problems of enterprise economics. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1996. - 512 p.
6. Khan D. Planning and control: the concept of controlling / Per. with him. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997. - 800 p.
7. Manilovsky R.G. Business plan. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1998. - 160 p.
8. Business planning: Methods. Organization. Modern practice. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997. - 368 p.

test questions

1. Tell us about the planning pyramid in strategic management.
2. Compare strategic and operational management.
3. What distinguishes discounted models among all dynamic programming models?
4. Why is the use of an asymptotically optimal plan justified?
5. Describe the content and use of the Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix.
6. What is the difference between the checklist and summary assessment methods?

Topics of reports and abstracts

1. Describe a planning pyramid for a firm you know.
2. Correlation between optimal and asymptotically optimal plans.
2. Strategic management tools.
3. The problem of stability of conclusions (in relation to small deviations of the initial data and subjective "digitization" of qualitative assessments) when solving problems of strategic management.
4. Methods for constructing a summary estimate of the project based on estimates of individual factors.
5. Methods for choosing weight coefficients in the tasks of strategic management.

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