Strategic planning during the financial and economic crisis. How to get a company out of a financial crisis

Crisis Planning

The threat of another world economic crisis relevant today. One way or another, the Russian economy will be seriously affected by the economic crisis, so the management of any enterprise needs a list of measures and methods of anti-crisis management to respond to emerging crisis situations in companies that are somehow related to the crisis. A special role in anti-crisis management is played by the ability to manage the personnel of an enterprise during this period. This article highlights the main methods of personnel management in a crisis period.

Human resource management - it is a strategy and a coherent approach to the management of the most valuable assets of the enterprise - the people working for the enterprise with their individual or collective contribution to the achievement of the organization's goals. The terms "human resource management" and "human resources" in a broad sense replace the term "human management" as a description of the processes of personnel management in an enterprise.

Under the management of labor resources is understood the whole set of organizational measures aimed at the optimal formation of personnel (labor collective) and the full use of its capabilities and abilities in the production process. This management is a multi-stage process, including the following management actions:

• planning the necessary labor resources to achieve the goals of the enterprise;
• recruitment and creation of a reserve of personal candidates;
• selection of the best candidates for job replacement from the reserve created during the recruitment process;
• · Determining wages and benefits that reflect the situation on the labor market and the capabilities of the enterprise, as well as its interest in hiring specific candidates to fill vacancies;
• · professional orientation and adaptation of newly hired personnel;
• training of personnel in labor skills and improvement of their qualifications for the effective performance of work;
• · grade labor activity personnel;
• • movement of personnel, including promotion and demotion, transfer to another job and dismissal;
• · training of management personnel for enterprise management at all levels of the organizational and production hierarchy.

In general, human resources management includes the following areas of work: the formation and development of labor resources, as well as the stimulation and improvement of the quality of the working life of personnel. The planning of the resources necessary to achieve the goals of the enterprise is carried out by applying certain procedures for the implementation of this process to staff the approved staffing levels. Assessment of available resources is the basis for organizing work on personnel management. In the process of evaluation, management should determine the actual availability of personnel, their sufficiency and quality to achieve the objectives of the enterprise. The results of such an assessment make it possible to forecast future needs, which is carried out separately for short-term and long-term goals (plans) of the enterprise. Particular attention should be paid to identifying categories of personnel, the need for which should increase with a limited supply in the labor market. A general need for personnel is also predicted with a differentiation of workers in certain specialties. For the qualitative formation of labor resources, management must know in detail the tasks of a particular job and its characteristics, which determine the requirements for specific personnel for organizing (replacing) jobs.

Top and middle managers responsible for the human resources of a company certainly face challenges in managing personnel during business crises and economic downturns. The staff is the most valuable capital of the company, and at the same time it is the largest item of its expenses, not only in terms of financial estimates, but also in terms of performance, risks and reputation. Reductions in human resources costs are in most cases misunderstood as downsizing. But in world practice, there are many other available ways to reduce personnel costs that allow companies to improve the level of HR management in a crisis. "The main purpose of this section will be to show all the possibilities of how, in a crisis, enterprises should adjust their personnel management strategies, applying more flexible management measures, thereby avoiding increased risks of reducing the level of production in the enterprise" .

During the economic crisis, companies are forced to reduce operating costs, including those for the personnel of the enterprise. Reducing the cost of human resources involves reducing the cost of wages, training courses, benefits, insurance and other items of expenditure. The traditional way to reduce costs is to lay off staff, however, the application of this practice leads to undesirable consequences in the form of:

• loss of company assets during the crisis
• Possible serious damage to the corporate culture of the enterprise
• Deterioration of structural communications
• can cause irreparable damage to the company's reputation (especially if we are talking about large, city-forming companies)
• Creation of a tense working atmosphere in the enterprise.

Many companies are constantly looking for alternative methods reduce human resource costs before moving on to layoffs:

human asset management costs

Techniques to Reduce Human Resource Costs

Alternative Methods	Characteristic
Suspension of an employment contract	Temporary workers, part-time workers, student interns and subcontract workers are subject to layoffs to keep permanent jobs full-time employees. Specifically, the strategic application of this policy to provide full-time job security for full-time employees is referred to as the “work safety ring approach”. Under this approach, the layoff rate of full-time employees who work all day is deliberately kept low. In the event of an increase in demand for labor force, will re-fill the staff with temporary workers or freelancers. The advantage of this approach is that it guarantees some stability and security, at least for full-time employees.
Wage freeze	As one of the ways to reduce costs, when managers can forcibly freeze payments to staff, during which the level of salaries and wages does not increase. Freezing payments should be implemented everywhere, this policy can be argued by reducing payments for overtime work and also asking employees to use their holidays and day off. Unfortunately, this method can force the most valuable personnel of the enterprise to leave the company, as they may feel their stagnation in the career ladder.
Reducing working hours	Assumes a reduction in the number of working hours and, therefore, the number of hours for which the enterprise must pay its employees. Workers get the opportunity to receive voluntary, unpaid leave or they can be transferred to part-time work. In some cases, all employees are willing to cut their work hours as a last resort to save jobs.
Division of work	An enterprise can always use division of work, when possible, to reallocate one work function to two work functions, but on a part-time basis. The main problem with this method is to find two employees who are willing to share their working hours and wages. As a last resort, highly paid employees may be demoted to low-paying jobs.
Reduction of personnel development programs through their internships at the enterprise	During a crisis, companies tend not to recruit new staff through his internship at the enterprise. Due to the fact that young specialists who are trained at the enterprise in most cases are free personnel who are not tied to a particular enterprise and do not share its difficulties. In addition, it is more important for enterprises in crisis situations to retain more experienced staff than to bear additional expenses for internship programs.
Expansion of job responsibilities of employees	A company can guarantee its employees job retention if employees are willing to work overtime and take on new job responsibilities as needed.
Outsourcing and Offshoring	One of the most effective ways to reduce personnel costs. First of all, because the enterprise can get rid of the costs associated with the recruitment and management of personnel, and it can use the benefits of lower tax payments by manufacturing products in developing countries. Outsourcing can bring benefits to the enterprise by looking for an employee who will be more qualified for more complex tasks (instead of two workers for various tasks, an enterprise may have one employee to perform two types of work). The main problems of the method are errors in choosing the location of new production sites, problems associated with the transfer of production. When using outsourcing, an enterprise may have difficulty adapting new "borrowed" employees.
Reducing the cost of staff training	The company may resort to the practice of reducing staff training programs. Also reduce the number of staff involved in these programs or distribute their work hours more efficiently. However, such measures in the long run can harm the enterprise.
career breaks	Instead of being fired, the enterprise may offer the employee the opportunity to get some time off from work to use it for personal purposes (continue training, for example). With a further guarantee of restoration in the future.

Bibliography

• 1. Vinokurov V. Organization of strategic management at the enterprise. M., Center for Economics and Marketing, 1996. 234 p.
• 2. Gradov A.N. The economic strategy of the firm. St. Petersburg, Spetsliterature, 1995. 87 p.
• 3. Goncharov V.I. Management: Tutorial, - Minsk: Misanta, 2003. - 624 p.
• 4. Maslov E.V. Enterprise personnel management, - M .: UNITI, 2005.
• 5. Planning in a crisis Dmitry Sirotkin, Inna Zinina, ICF "ALT" Abbreviated version - Financial Director, No. 3, 2009 http://www.altrc.ru/? p=libr_card&item_id=863&group_id=6
• 6. "A handbook of human resource management practice" Michael Armstrong London; Philadelphia: Kogan Page, 2006.

1

The study is devoted to the issues of financial planning in crisis conditions. The purpose of this work is to determine the place of financial planning and investment at the micro and meso levels of the economy. The authors conducted a study of the effectiveness of corporate financial management, assessed the feasibility of investments in a crisis and uncertainty. The main directions of investments and possible difficulties in the financial work of enterprises are studied. As an example, the paper considers the indicators of the Udmurt Republic as a typical Russian region with an industrial development specialization. The main methods of the research should be deduction, induction, scientific analogy, analysis and comparison. The results of the study can be used in financial and economic activity enterprises, as well as in educational and scientific works in planning, corporate economics, financial and investment management. The authors suggest directions for effective financial planning and highlight its most important aspects.

tax payments

industrial region

economic structure

regional economy

governmental support

investment in agro-industrial complex

financial markets

corporate finance

market forecasting

business planning

consolidated budget

price dynamics

Udmurt republic

investments

financial crisis

economic crisis

financial planning

1. Annenkov V.I. Administrative activity: organization and technologies: textbook / V.I. Annenkov, N.N. Barchan, S.N. Baranov, A.V. Moiseev // Ed. Prof. Annenkova V.I. – M.: RUSAVIA. 2015. - 350 p.

2. Barchan N.N. Analysis of non-classical ideas about managerial decision / N.N. Barchan // Cloud of Science. - 2013. - No. 1. - P. 33–36

3. Bubnov G.G. Strategic planning as the most important function of management / G.G. Bubnov, A.V. Pautova, V.I. Zolotarev // Transport business of Russia. - 2011. - No. 7. - S. 24–26.

4. Bubnov G.G. Adaptive-developing management of innovative projects based on the use of maturity models. Report on R & D / G.G. Bubnov, S.A. Titov, E.V. Borisova, S.N. Suetin. - M.: Moscow Technological Institute, 2014. - 127 p.

5. Glinkina O.V. Management: Monograph. - M.: TechPolygraphTsentr, 2014. - 226 p.

6. Danilova I.L. Management of borrowed capital in agriculture / I.L. Danilova, S.N. Suetin // Bulletin of KIGIT. - 2010. - No. 3 (12). – P. 57–60.

7. Ilyin S.Yu. Basic production assets in agriculture: study guide / S.Yu. Ilyin. - Izhevsk: Udmurt University, 2005. - 101 p.

8. Ilyin S.Yu. Resource potential of the agrarian sector of the economy: monograph / S.Yu. Ilyin. - Izhevsk: Institute for Computer Research, 2011. - 155 p.

9. Ilyin S.Yu. Intensive use of production resources in the agrarian sector of the economy: monograph / S.Yu. Ilyin. - Izhevsk: Institute for Computer Research, 2012. - 105 p.

10. Ilyin S.Yu. Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the use of production resources (on the example of agriculture in the Udmurt Republic) / S.Yu. Ilyin // Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. - 2012. - No. 31. - P. 49–53.

11. Kloyan K. Global financial crisis 2007–2009: causes and measures to prevent new economic anomalies / K. Kloyan, S.N. Suetin // Bulletin of KIGIT. - 2012. - No. 8 (26). – P. 52–58.

12. Kondratiev D. V. Organizational and economic mechanism for implementation and a model for optimizing production synergy factors in organizations Food Industry/ D.V. Kondratiev, S.N. Suetin, K.N. Yushkov // Caspian journal: management and high tech. - 2014. - No. 3 (27). – P. 33–48.

13. Kondratiev D.V. Methods of making managerial decisions. Workshop Tutorial / D.V. Kondratiev. - Izhevsk: FGBOU VPO Izhevsk State Agricultural Academy, 2013. - 124 p.

14. Kotlyachkov O.V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of investor funds in innovative activity. Collective monograph / Kotlyachkov O.V., Ilyin S.Yu., Kochetkova I.A., Vasilyeva G.N., Pavlov K.V., Mokhnachev S.A. Shamaeva N.P., Verezubova T.A., Sava A.P., Kachala T.N., Yatsenko V.N., Shevchenko A.N., Kolesnikova A.V., Lyashenko S.V., Yatsenko A .V., Kernasyuk Yu.V. - Izhevsk: Shelest, 2014. - 200 p.

15. Kotlyachkov O.V. Audit of the effectiveness of the use of investment funds / O.V. Kotlyachkov, N.V. Kotlyachkova, S.N. Suetin // Bulletin of KIGIT. - 2012. - No. 8 (26). – P. 83–89.

16. Matosyan V.A., Suetin S.N. Problems of modern financial education and ways to solve them. Collection of scientific papers of the IX International scientific and practical conference under the general editorship of G.G. Bubnova, E.V. Pluzhnik, V.I. Soldatkin. - M., 2014. - S. 270-272.

17. Ministry of Finance of the Udmurt Republic. Access mode: http://www.mfur.ru/budjet/ispolnenie/index.php (accessed 05.05.2015).

18. Nagovitsyna Yu.S. Financial crisis: forms of its manifestation and ways of overcoming / Yu.S. Nagovitsyna, S.N. Suetin // Bulletin of KIGIT. - 2010. - No. 5 (14). – P. 59–62.

19. Pavlov K.V. Problems of extensive and intensive directions of use of fixed assets in agricultural production in Udmurtia / K.V. Pavlov, S.Yu. Ilyin // Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. - 2007. - No. 11. - P. 15–21.

20. Struchkova E.S. Development of methodological provisions for the activities of financial infrastructure facilities industrial production/ E.S. Struchkova, S.N. Suetin // Economics and Entrepreneurship. - 2014. - No. 7 (48). - P. 806–813.

21. Struchkova E. S. Methodological solutions for managing financial resources production processes based on their consolidation and rationalization / Struchkova E.S., Suetin S.N. // Scientific review. - 2014. - No. 8(2). - S. 688-693.

22. Struchkova E.S. Strengthening the effects of tax administration of production in the process of modernizing the economy / E.S. Struchkova, S. N. Suetin // Cloud of Science. - 2015. - T. 2. - No. 1. - S. 152–169.

23. Suetin A.N. Financial markets in conditions of changing volatility // Educational environment today and tomorrow. Collection of scientific papers of the IX International scientific and practical conference under the general editorship of G.G. Bubnova, E.V. Pluzhnik, V.I. Soldatkin. - M., 2014. - S. 355–357.

24. Suetin A.N. Peculiarities of financial forecasting and planning in a rich information environment / A.N. Suetin, V.A. Matosyan, S.V. Emelyanov, O.V. Kotlyachkov // Fundamental research. - 2014. - No. 12–12. – S. 2616–2620. URL: http://rae.ru/fs/?section=content&op=show_article&article_id=10006007

25. Suetina N.A. Adaptation of the agro-industrial complex of Udmurtia to the conditions of financial markets / N.A. Suetina, S.N. Suetin // Modern problems of science and education. - 2013. - No. 6. URL: http://www.site/113-11046

26. Suetin S.N. Management of corporation financial resources in conditions of increased volatility of financial markets / S.N. Suetin, V.N. Anoshin, O.V. Kotlyachkov, V.G. Keshchyan // Fundamental research. - 2015. - No. 3. - S. 212-216.

27. Suetin S.N. Economic relations in the "city-village" system. Monograph / S.N. Suetin, M.I. Shishkin, L.G. Kim. - Izhevsk: Association "Scientific Book", 2006. - 208 p.

28. Suetin S.N. Crisis management. Textbook / S.N. Suetin, S.F. Zaitsev. - Izhevsk: RIO NOU VPO "KIGIT", 2011. - 256 p.

29. Suetin S.N. City and enterprises: strategy of joint development. Domestic and foreign experience // Real sector of economy: theory and practice of management. - 2005. - No. 4 - S. 152–155.

30. Suetin S.N. Strategy state regulation economic relations between city and village // Real sector of economy: theory and practice of management. - 2005. - No. 3 - S. 131–136.

31. Suetin S.N. Causes of economic crises and ways to overcome them in the works of F. Engels and K. Marx // Proceedings of the II International Scientific and Practical Conference "Marxism and Modernity: Outlines of the Future in the Works of F. Engels" / Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. - Kyiv, 2010. - S. 309-311.

32. Suetin S.N. Formation of mutually beneficial economic relations in the "city-village" system. Dissertation for the degree of candidate of economic sciences. - Izhevsk: Udmurtsky Publishing House state university, 2006. - 198 p.

33. Suetin S.N. The role of scientific and technological progress in the development of the agro-industrial complex / S.N. Suetin, S.Yu. Ilyin // Bulletin of KIGIT. - 2010. - No. 3 (12). – P. 110–113.

34. Suetin S.N. The financial mechanism of the agro-industrial complex of Russia in the conditions of the WTO // " Innovative development Agro-industrial complex and agricultural education - scientific support. Proceedings of the All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference February 14–17, 2012 Volume III / Izhevsk State Agricultural Academy. - Izhevsk, 2012. - S. 201-204.

35. Suetin S.N. Formation of an effective investment strategy in the context of the financial and economic crisis (on the example of the "second wave" of the crisis) // Collection "Education and Science - Innovative Developments of the NOU VPO "KIGIT"". Dedicated to the 20th anniversary of NOU VPO "KIGIT". Rep. for the issue of M.A. Loiferman. - Izhevsk, 2013. - P. 37.

36. Suetin A.N. Automation of accounting and crisis management/ A.N. Suetin, N.A. Suetina, S.N. Suetin // Proceedings of the All-Russian scientific and practical conference dedicated to the 90th anniversary of the statehood of Udmurtia. FGBOU VPO Izhevsk State Agricultural Academy. - Izhevsk, 2010. - S. 283-284.

37. Suetin S. N. Improving economic relations between industrial and agricultural enterprises // Science of Udmurtia, 2005. - No. 6. - P. 139–145.

38. Suetin S.N. The role of regional authorities in the development of effective relations between the city and the countryside // Science of Udmurtia. Izhevsk, 2005. - No. 3. - S. 191-107.

In the current economic situation, enterprises of all industries are striving to improve the efficiency of their activities. This is primarily due to the issue of the survival of the organizations themselves, as well as the life support of employees. more favorable economic conditions past years allowed to put into practice not always correct and economically justified decisions. Errors in management - primarily in financial planning - were covered by high profitability. Now that demand in the market as a whole has declined, many inaccuracies in financial planning have begun to manifest themselves in the form of significant losses.

An urgent problem is the identification of areas for investment and financial planning of income and expenses. This is an extremely important task, because a mistake for enterprises can turn into bankruptcy.

Modern management and the problems of its development are considered in the works of many scientists, we adhere to the opinion of Barchan N.N. , Glinkina O.V. , Ilyina S.Yu. . We consider the views of D.V. Kondratiev to be relevant. and Kotlyachkova O.V. on the way to the development of the agro-industrial complex.

We have studied the main features of financial planning of enterprises in the consumer, industrial and agricultural sectors on the example of the Udmurt Republic. According to many socio-economic indicators, this region is typical for central Russia, therefore, to a certain extent, this experience can be transferred to other regions. We applied the methodology integrated assessment region in order to put forward the main hypotheses of risks and opportunities. This study can be viewed as a strategy for entering the market of a particular region and effectively functioning in it.

We have determined that the Udmurt Republic is a fairly powerful industrial region: there are large factories of various types, the production facilities of the Kalashnikov federal concern, Rosatom, and the Izhevsk Automobile Plant. Also developed here Agriculture, to a lesser extent - hydrocarbon production and processing. The problems of the development of the economy of the UR, including the agro-industrial complex, are studied in detail in the works of Suetin S.N. .

At the beginning of the study, a general picture of the economic climate of the region should be drawn up. The analysis revealed that, according to the Ministry of Finance of the Udmurt Republic, the consolidated budget of the republic for January-July 2014 was executed with a deficit of 3,935 million rubles. (Table 1, based on data from the Ministry of Finance of the UR).

Table 1

Execution of the consolidated budget of the Udmurt Republic for January-July 2014 (million rubles)

			surplus, deficit (-)			surplus, deficit (-)
January February
January March
January—April
January—May
January June
January—July
January—August
January—September
January—October
January—November
January December

In January-July 2014, the consolidated budget of the republic received 36,818 million rubles, which is 10% more than in the corresponding period of 2013. Land tax receipts increased significantly (2.1 times), corporate income tax (by 26%), single tax levied in connection with the application of the simplified taxation system (by 11%), income tax individuals(by 8%), transport tax and personal property tax (by 7%). At the same time, revenues from the mineral extraction tax (by 29%), excises on excisable goods (products) produced in the territory of the Russian Federation (by 5%), income from the use of state and municipal property (by 4%) decreased. , gratuitous receipts (by 3%).

From the analysis carried out, it can be concluded that the budget deficit is increasing, and, no less important, the budget is consistently in deficit.

The influence of this factor should be taken into account in certain aspects.

• A stable deficit suggests that, when working with budgetary regional organizations, an enterprise should always take into account the significant risk of overdue receivables, as well as the minimum markup on goods sold. However, budgetary organizations always make payments, documentation and legality of transactions in most cases are beyond doubt.
• With a high deficit, the region is not able to invest in infrastructure (roads, communications, new facilities social value), as well as in the creation of new enterprises. On the one hand, this is a minus, on the other hand, it can become a certain advantage. Companies with the appropriate capital can become virtual monopolies in some areas (for example, build roads, conduct communications and create a large shopping center). At the same time, smaller companies cannot penetrate certain market segments at all, since the minimum amount of initial investment is very high.

As practical experience shows, when assessing the external environment of the future market, companies should pay attention to the arrears in taxes and fees in the region.

Financial planning issues are reflected in the works of economists at MIT and leading universities in Izhevsk. In recent years, special attention has been paid by economists to the crisis aspect and its impact on the finances of organizations and the regional economy.

Table 2 shows the position of Udmurtia in terms of payments to the consolidated budget. One of the important parameters is the share of debt in all accrued payments (Table 2).

table 2

Receipt of tax payments and other revenues to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation for January-July 2014 and debt on tax payments as of August 1, 2014 in the context of the subjects of the Volga Federal District (according to the Interregional Inspectorate of the Federal Tax Service of Russia for the Volga Federal District), million rubles

	Received tax payments and other income to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation	Received tax payments and other revenues to the federal budget of the Russian Federation	Tax debt	Total payments	Share of debt in total payments, %
Republic of Tatarstan
Orenburg region
Perm region
Republic of Bashkortostan
Udmurt republic
Samara Region
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Saratov region
Ulyanovsk region
Penza region
The Republic of Mordovia
Mari El Republic
Chuvash Republic
Kirov region

Calculations show that Udmurtia is approximately in the middle of the list. This suggests that enterprises in the region have certain problems with solvency, but in general, the republic does not stand out in the Volga Federal District.

To understand in more detail the essence of the use of these data, it is necessary to supplement them with the structure of debt.

In the course of the analysis of Figure 1, it was revealed that the most part is occupied by arrears on VAT and income tax. A certain proportion of the arrears are created large enterprises, but also in terms of income tax and VAT, a significant share can be created by a whole series of “one-day firms” that legalize unpaid taxes through fictitious contracts, deceit of the population and other things, i.e. illegally withdraw significant amounts from taxation.

The presence of any arrears should be considered as a negative factor, because the enterprise is a tax evader, not even paying funds to the state, all the more it should be considered as a probable bad debtor in relation to other organizations.

Rice. 1. Dynamics of the structure of arrears by types of taxes and fees

One of the most important areas of financial planning is to use the opportunities of the consumer sector.

Let us show its importance as a result of the next step of research.

Consider the dynamics of prices for basic foodstuffs in the Udmurt Republic.

In the context of the financial and economic crisis, the purchase of food products is a consistently large cost item. She plays key role in what will be the structure of income distribution of the population: the lower the cost of food, the more funds can be directed to the purchase of industrial goods, savings, deposits, investments in securities, etc.

The current economic situation is different as follows.

Some foreign countries imposed sanctions on Russian enterprises. This is expressed in the limitation of the ability to purchase and sell goods, materials, the impossibility of obtaining credit and other resources. At the same time, Russia often cannot introduce similar answers that are close to symmetry: for example, in relation to country A, which has closed access to credit resources, it is impossible to impose a restriction on the supply of, for example, apples, since this is contrary to WTO rules. It should be noted that the response of the country's leadership was made much more tangible: the dollar was released into free movement, its growth was almost not restrained. This automatically made it impractical to supply any imported products because it has become uncompetitive. This state of affairs allows intensively pursuing a policy of import substitution.

At the same time, taking into account current economic trends, domestic consumption will be negatively affected by price dynamics.

Let's analyze table 3, where we see the dynamics of food prices.

Table 3

Food prices in the Udmurt Republic, rub.

	Average price in rubles per kilogram
		August 2014	August 2014 to August 2013, %
Beef (except boneless meat)
Pork (excluding boneless meat)
Chilled and frozen chickens
Semi-smoked and boiled-smoked sausage
boiled sausage
Frozen whole fish
Butter
Sunflower oil
Margarine
Pasteurized milk, liter
Low-fat cottage cheese
Rennet cheeses, hard and soft
Eggs, 10 pcs.
Granulated sugar
Food salt
Wheat flour
Rye-wheat bread
Wheat bread 1s. and 2s.
Buckwheat groats
Vermicelli
Potato
Onion

According to the table, it can be seen that pork, sour cream and cottage cheese have risen in price most significantly. In conditions of high dollar and euro prices, the situation will be even tougher. Given the influence of the external environment, it is much less profitable for food producers to sell them domestically than abroad. At present, the demand for them has increased significantly: India and China, as the well-being of the population grows, begin to consume more high-quality protein foods. In these countries, there are not enough natural resources to meet domestic demand with sufficient supply. Therefore, in dollar terms, Russian products are becoming more accessible and at the same time in demand. Under such conditions, according to our calculations, dairy products will rise in price the most. This is due to the fact that pastures are required to obtain milk.

A number of other products can be obtained commercially (pork, chicken, eggs, etc.). Industrial production has practically unlimited opportunities for growth, while pastoral production does not. It should also be noted that dairy products are often obtained as a result of deep processing (milk, cheese, cottage cheese), which allows creating significant added value.

One of the indicators of milk quality is protein content. If fat content can be increased simply by adding fat to milk, then protein can only be increased by updating the breed of the herd, since this is a genetically dependent trait. This upgrade takes time and money. Thus, over the next 2-3 years, the scenario of a shortage of milk and an increase in prices for it is very likely on the Russian market. Since this product is included in the list of socially significant products and its growth will be restrained in every possible way by the authorities, a drop in the quality of products sold is inevitable.

Similar growth can be assumed for wheat grain, vegetable oils and fish. Consequently, the rise in price of products that can withstand transportation and are in demand abroad is almost inevitable, as well as a significant decrease in their quality in our stores is extremely likely.

In order to improve the efficiency of activities, we provide the following recommendations.

For investors, in the context of financial planning, there is a promising direction - the agro-industrial complex. Taking into account foreign and domestic development experience, the rise in price of products will lead to a decrease in demand for industrial products. The population will spend a significant part of their income on food. However, the increased demand abroad will increase the consumption of the food market, limited only by domestic demand until then.

Further, in view of the reduced demand for industrial products, the revenue side of the budgets of all levels will inevitably decline. The production of the agro-industrial complex will not be able to compensate for this, if only because the majority of the population of the region and the country as a whole is concentrated in cities. Here the state should pay attention to the support of the townspeople so that they can stably hold out during the crisis period. According to our estimates, it will be 1.5-2 years before the start of growth. As soon as the growth starts, the demand for industrial products and financial services will increase very quickly, and the funds spent earlier will pay off soon enough.

The solution of the formulated questions has been implemented at the Moscow Technological Institute, which is widely conducting scientific and practical activities in the field of finance, which is reflected in the scientific research of graduate students.

Based on the calculations made in regions similar to the Udmurt Republic, enterprises should take into account the following important factors and cost-effective areas of financial planning.

1. State support for industry is possible at the first stage of the crisis. The goal is to release products that have become inaccessible due to prices or restrictions on exports to Russia, as well as to support enterprises during a period of reduced demand (for example, in the automotive industry).

2. A significant increase in investment in the agro-industrial complex is possible. This is especially true for holdings that include both industry and agriculture. The goal is a sharp increase in the output of products for export. The effect is that this will make it possible to recoup costs as quickly as possible, which in non-crisis conditions takes much longer.

3. It is necessary to provide for the possibility of introducing a legislative ban on the export of products. This is especially true for food products, which took place in 2010, when restrictions were imposed on the export of wheat. Such non-market methods often significantly reduce returns and require alternative investment options.

4. The exactingness of tax collection will increase significantly, so the quality of accounting work should be at the highest level. Financial planning of settlements with the budget should have priority execution.

5. When working with budget organizations you should expect the lowest purchase prices possible, but the probability of an uncollectible receivable is almost zero.

6. Large companies should pay attention to regions that do not have the ability to create infrastructure. The effect is that in this case, firms can relatively easily resolve issues of obtaining land for industrial production or the creation of trading floors.

Main conclusions:

1. It is cost-effective to increase investment in the agro-industrial complex.

2. The exactingness of tax collection will increase significantly, so the quality of accounting work should be at the highest level. Financial planning of settlements with the budget should have priority execution.

3. When working with budgetary organizations, one should count on the lowest possible purchase prices, but the probability of occurrence of bad receivables tends to zero.

4. Large companies should pay attention to regions that do not have the ability to create infrastructure, which will allow them to gain large market shares.

Reviewers:

Kuzminova T.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Moscow Technological Institute, Moscow;

Emelyanov S.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor of the Moscow Business School, Moscow.

Bibliographic link

Suetin A.N., Matosyan V.A. FINANCIAL PLANNING AND INVESTMENT PROSPECTS DURING THE CRISIS // Contemporary Issues science and education. - 2015. - No. 1-1 .;
URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=19502 (date of access: 03/20/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"

Issues discussed in the material:

• What are the consequences of the crisis
• Why any enterprise needs an anti-crisis program
• What can be anti-crisis action plans
• What steps should a competent anti-crisis action plan include?

The crisis at the enterprise is usually caused by the whole range of macro- and microeconomic problems, the cause of which is irrational conduct of activities or environmental conditions. To overcome the existing economic barriers, it is necessary to adjust the business activity of the enterprise to the most modern requirements and market changes. This result can be achieved by developing an effective plan of anti-crisis measures.

Crisis at the enterprise and its possible consequences

A crisis is called an extreme aggravation of contradictions in the socio-economic system (company), leading to its inability to resist external factors. Speaking of the crisis, one cannot avoid the topic of risks. The enterprise finds itself in a dangerous position due to a whole set of internal reasons of a design-technological, economic, financial nature, shortcomings in economic management inside the company.

In addition to the causes of the crisis, its various consequences are also important: the renewal of the organization, its destruction, recovery or transition to a state of a new crisis. It should be clarified that crises often arise as a chain reaction, and prolonged conservation of crisis situations is also possible.

The crisis can either lead to drastic changes in the company or end with a long, but soft and consistent way out of it. Experts divide crisis changes into long-term and short-term, qualitative and quantitative, reversible and irreversible.

The consequences of the crisis depend on its nature, as well as on the chosen plan of anti-crisis measures - the latter can both alleviate and aggravate the situation of the company. In this case, much depends on the goals of the manager, his professionalism, management skills, motivation, understanding of the causes, consequences, and responsibility.

A crisis can arise in a company for various reasons, the main thing is to notice the symptoms of its development in time in order to have time to apply crisis management programs. To do this, each leader must be aware of the factors, symptoms and causes of the crisis.

As soon as the manager notices that the development of the enterprise is gradually starting to go according to a crisis scenario, he must resort to an anti-crisis action plan. Otherwise, the company will have to face considerable negative consequences and a difficult way out of the situation.

All factors of the anti-crisis program are conditionally divided into four groups.

First group– problems of identifying pre-crisis situations. In fact, this task is not easy, because it is necessary to notice and recognize the signs of the onset of the crisis in a timely manner, to determine its nature. Further counteraction to it depends on these steps.

Another difficulty that any manager has to face is the fact that it is necessary to form and launch crisis prevention mechanisms. However, not every crisis situation can be avoided, many will simply have to be experienced, and this will not succeed without competent management.

Second group consists of the problems of the company's life, namely, a complex of difficulties of a financial and economic nature. During their solution, the mission, goal, ways, means and methods of anti-crisis management are determined.

Third group is related to the anti-crisis management factor, which can be represented in the diversification of management technologies. Here are collected the problems of predicting crises and patterns of behavior of the socio-economic system in a crisis state, the problems of searching for information and preparing managerial decisions. Of no small importance are the problems of analysis and assessment of crisis situations.

Fourth group factors is anti-crisis personnel management.

The anti-crisis program is a separate type of management that differs from others in its specific characteristics. Although it should be noted that it also has similarities with other types of management. Yes, one of key features any management is considered to be human activity, that is, the management of a company is management joint activities people with a range of problems.

The subject of the plan of anti-crisis measures are the factors of the crisis or all manifestations of the aggravation of contradictions that cause it.

The anti-crisis program is aimed at preventing bankruptcy or at a timely, competent and, if possible, quick way out of the current situation.

The main goal of the anti-crisis program is to provide the company with a stable position in the market and stable finances, regardless of changes in the economic, political and social sphere. Such a program allows even in a difficult situation, for example, on the verge of bankruptcy, to apply managerial and financial mechanisms and with their help overcome difficulties with minimal losses.

The plan of anti-crisis measures at the enterprise can be built in accordance with "defensive" or "offensive" tactics. Here are the main protective measures:

• lower prices for the company's products, quick sale;
• downsizing of staff;
• decrease in production volumes;
• temporary stop of production or closing of one division;
• sale of a certain amount of equipment.

The “offensive” tactics of the anti-crisis action plan is based on active strategic actions, namely:

• equipment upgrades;
• introduction of innovative methods in management, production, marketing, etc.
• work on product quality;
• expansion of sales markets and use of other opportunities;
• reorganization of the management system.

The purpose of using an anti-crisis action plan may be to restore current and debt solvency. In the second case, one searches for one's own Money through the immobilization of current assets. In other words, the company withdraws money from circulation for costs that are not provided for by the estimate. Another source of funds may be the sale of a part of fixed assets not used in production.

To restore the current solvency at the expense of the owners' funds, they increase the authorized capital, place additional shares, increase turnover, reduce costs for innovative areas of the company's work, as they are among the most costly, and reorganize debt through loans and guarantees.

It is necessary to take the preparation of an anti-crisis action plan as seriously as possible, because from informed choice one or another action depends on the fate of the entire company. The list of anti-crisis measures that is optimal in a particular situation depends on the depth of the crisis and consists of operational and long-term financial measures.

Let's say right away that the ways out of the crisis are not empirically justified, their choice and sequence of use are selected in accordance with the conditions of a particular enterprise. But when preparing a plan, it is worth relying on the following key principles:

• focus on actual problems;
• compliance with time constraints;
• validity of anti-crisis measures;
• multivariance of solutions;
• expert professional approach;
• performance optimization and risk measures.

The first step in preparing an anti-crisis action plan is to analyze the company's internal reserves and the state of its affairs from a financial point of view. To do this, an analytical balance is drawn up.

Anti-crisis financial measures include:

• rejection of unprofitable departments;
• cost reduction (cost);
• assortment change;
• getting started with the budgeting system;
• regulation of labor.

To cope with crisis influences, the company must resort to all possible financial and innovative measures.

6 basic principles for drawing up a plan of anti-crisis measures in the organization

When preparing and implementing an anti-crisis action plan, we recommend starting from a number of principles - they are a set of basic requirements for the development and implementation of a company's recovery program.

As you understand, an anti-crisis program is a system of measures aimed at preventing or eliminating phenomena that are dangerous for business. For this, the full potential of modern management is used and a special strategic program is being developed and implemented. The advantage of the latter is that it makes it possible, at the expense of the company's own resources, to carry out measures to overcome temporary difficulties, maintain and improve market positions, regardless of external factors.

What can be the action plans of anti-crisis management

When the assessment was made property status and financial and economic activities of the company, financial director starts preparing a plan of anti-crisis measures. Its form depends on the complexity of the situation, the structure of assets and liabilities, and the type of activity of the organization.

Anti-crisis action plan: content, drafting and implementation

There is a certain periodicity with which national and global crises unfold. At this time, only a few companies are able to keep their financial performance from falling. But even if the overall economic situation remains calm, an internal crisis can flare up in the organization, the causes of which are usually problems in the industry or product category. What anti-crisis measures should be taken in this case? How to overcome the negative scenario of the development of the situation?

1. Recognize that there is a problem.

It would seem a simple step, but until the manager is ready to admit the existence of a crisis situation, he will not be able to do anything about it. The more time it takes for this process, the more difficulties will have to be faced in the future. You can wait for a long time that everything will correct itself, in the near future there will be a fall in the exchange rate, it will be possible to conclude a profitable contract, but remember: if financial indicators continue to decline every month for two quarters, you need to start preparing an anti-crisis action plan.




In addition, analyze your own capabilities to understand whether the company is able to cope with the crisis without outside help or whether it is time to close or merge with a stronger partner.

2. Keep top managers up to date.

The sooner managers realize the seriousness of the situation, the sooner it will be possible to respond to crisis phenomena. Present to your specialists all the subtleties, the main risks. But be careful not to sow panic - keep a constructive working attitude.

3. Find like-minded people.

It is extremely difficult for a company to survive in a crisis without well-coordinated teamwork. Rest assured, your chances will be reduced by five times if you fail to find like-minded people and unite them with a common idea or goal. In a crisis situation, you need to rely on experience and loyalty, forgetting about high positions and regalia.

4. Create a special anti-crisis group.

Gather up to fifteen of the most experienced managers and tell us what is happening in your enterprise and the market as a whole, ask for their support and understanding, make it clear that you will soon have to resort to unpopular measures. At this point, it is important for managers to understand that they are expected to achieve maximum return and efficiency. Thus, they will be able to save themselves and their team from dismissal, salary delays, cancellation of bonuses, etc. In the active phase of the crisis, such a committee must be convened 1-2 times a month.

5. Work out a strategy.

What are the key indicators for your company? Sales volume, market share, profit or survival? Large experienced companies rarely find themselves in a situation where the issue of their life or death is being decided - even in the most difficult periods, they have the resources to get out of the crisis without serious losses. Often they take advantage of the difficult economic situation for rapid large-scale expansion: they buy up the business of competitors, win shares of shelf space, and expand advertising campaigns.

It is dangerous for small and medium-sized firms to enter into such a game, their task is to reduce risks and costs. Thanks to competent actions and a reasonably drawn up plan of anti-crisis measures, you can significantly increase your chances of a sharp rise in business after the acute phase of the crisis is over. A company that is in good shape and operates efficiently moves to the development stage much faster than other market players who want to keep a share, but have lost their “turnover” or have accumulated debts.

6. Write your most pessimistic scenario.

After discussing the pessimistic sales plan, deduct another 15-20% from it. The fact is that often we are not ready to believe in such a strong recession, so it is better to play it safe.




If things go better than expected, you will have windfall profits. Prepare an expense budget in line with a pessimistic sales plan to maintain the lowest margin possible.

7. Reduce financial costs under this scenario.

Costs are cut sharply and without delay. First of all, you have to completely abandon unnecessary investments, as well as seriously reduce the remaining cost items.

8. Reduce purchases.

Buy according to your pessimistic plan, but alert suppliers to be ready to reorder. Your task is to shift the risks to your suppliers within reasonable limits. By the way, during a crisis, the best situation for you is to sell the remaining goods with low liquidity from warehouses (your own and partner ones). Challenge buyers to reduce contract prices by about 10% in the currency of your sales. Even if it is possible to do this by only 5%, it is already good, because against the backdrop of a crisis, a sharp increase in purchase prices is often observed due to an increase in exchange rates.

9. Reduce overhead.

Not only do you need to eliminate a number of inefficient and unnecessary services, but also reduce the cost of all others by 20-30%. Negotiate with landlords - it is advisable to involve an experienced negotiator from a consulting company for this, because such specialists know exactly how to develop a negotiation strategy and bargain. An important anti-crisis measure can be a reduction in the IT budget, because you can easily continue to work without new computers.

10. Analyze the work of employees.

In a crisis, people always appear who make the system unstable: they shake the team, on the sidelines, arguing that "everything is lost."




It is better to immediately part with such employees, but if this is not possible, they should at least be isolated.

11. Cut the payroll.

Say goodbye to ineffective team members - this is a very important point in your anti-crisis plan. Temporarily prohibit salary increases, even reduce them, while following this policy: the higher the position a person occupies, the more the salary is reduced.

translate part fixed payment into a variable, cancel bonuses based on the results of the period if the set goals were not achieved. Postpone the payment of well-deserved bonuses for six months or a year, because this is always a good incentive for a specialist not to leave the company even in a crisis. If you have not lost sight of the tenth point, reducing the payroll will not present any difficulty for you, especially in a crisis of a national scale.

12. Avoid unprofitable projects.

Close or freeze projects if you know that they are unlikely to bring profit in the next six months or a year.

13. Think about other ways to earn money.

For example, you can offer consumers services that will be your salvation during a crisis.




If you have found suitable options, research the potential market, make a sales forecast, prepare a production/sales/services plan, as well as marketing and organizational plans.

14. Take care of financial security.

As soon as possible, transfer your accounts to absolutely reliable banks, there are no more than two or three of them in our country, so you will quickly make your choice. If you do not have an impeccably trusting relationship with your suppliers, always remember that any one of them may one day go bankrupt and you will be the last to know. Therefore, negotiate with three to five suppliers so that in an unforeseen situation you have a fallback option, prepare contracts, delivery schemes.

If technology permits, purchase from two to three different suppliers at the same time. Buy on a pay-as-you-go or postpaid basis, and sell on a prepaid basis, but in this case you need to be flexible, because your buyers may also have financial difficulties. Being overly tough on pay will cause customers to go to your more accommodating competitors. But do not forget that a long delay in a crisis can lead to a complete lack of payment, so you need to find a middle ground in this matter.

15. Try to form alliances.

Everything is very simple: four mothers can carry one child to school in four cars every day, but it is much more convenient if one mother drives all four in one car every four days.




Alliances with companies that have variable costs per client is much less than full. Suppose the cost of one showing of a film in a cinema is 2000 rubles. There are 100 seats in the hall, 20 tickets for 100 rubles each have been sold, which means that the session will take place. If one more viewer is added to this hundred, the costs will not increase to the cost price - variable costs for the 21st viewer are close to zero, as well as for the 22nd and 23rd.

If you make an interesting offer to the cinema in exchange for tickets at zero cost, and then turn the received tickets into free app to their goods, they will gain new value. Of course, not every client of yours will be interested in this value, but the meaning of the alliance is clear.

When developing your crisis response plan, think about which companies and how you can team up with to reduce overall costs and create more customer engagement.

16. Make products/services more accessible.

In a crisis, purchasing power drops, so you need to decide how to make the product more affordable. In fact, it does not have to be cheaper, although the price at such a time plays a significant role.

Let's say you're making products, then make the packaging bigger and the volume smaller. A product in a package of 900 grams for 90 rubles will sell better than a product weighing a kilogram for 100 rubles.

If possible, buy lower-quality raw materials, but do not overdo it, because by reducing the quality, you need to drop the price. The purpose of these events is not to get super profits, but to keep the product available to the audience. Otherwise, people will think that you are just deceiving them, which means that your chances of survival will be greatly reduced.

In industrial products, you can reduce the number of functions, offer simplified configurations, and also reduce their price.

If we are talking about services, they can be broken down into components, elements, stages, so that the final price consists of several small ones. Never summarize the total cost, for example, in service descriptions, commercial offers - people react negatively to large numbers, it is morally easier for them to pay 100,000 for five separate services than 500,000 for one.

17. Always keep hope.

Be optimistic, even in situations where there is little reason to be happy. In difficult times, people need hope, because sometimes this is the last thing left.

You can give hope to your subordinates, colleagues, consumers, make it a nice and free bonus to your offerings. Few people like to buy from the gloomy types who constantly declare that the world is falling apart, especially when things really don't go very smoothly. The economy is cyclical, this cannot be avoided, and after any crisis there will definitely come a rise.

Determining the timing of the implementation of anti-crisis measures

Depending on the complexity of the situation, scale and industry of the company, it may take from two weeks to several years to work with a plan of anti-crisis measures. If reorganization has become the main anti-crisis measure, it may take from six months to one and a half years. If it is planned to sell movable property, the timing must take into account the need to hold a meeting of founders with an agenda for the sale of property (for major transactions). This takes about a month.

Preparing an appraisal report also requires time, the latter depending on the number of objects and the stage of their registration, but the estimated time spent on this event is two weeks - six months. It takes from two weeks to six months to collect receivables. Your anti-crisis action plan should contain specific deadlines for each action, because in this way it is easier to track the implementation of measures and the effect received from them.

Effective work of organizations is not possible without the formation of an appropriate development strategy that provides them with market advantages and development horizons. The essence of the strategy is to establish a set of actions aimed at capturing the maximum possible market share while receiving the planned amount of profit in accordance with the financial and tactical tasks being solved.

However, the lack of due attention to the development of organizational strategies that determine the competitiveness of economic entities has become an obstacle to the expanded reproduction of the production and technical potential and sustainable economic growth of domestic innovative enterprises and the national economy as a whole.

Moreover, the emergence of global financial crises leading to a recession in almost all areas of economic activity requires a clear and well-coordinated program for the functioning of enterprises, and the lack of clear priorities determined by the strategy leads to bankruptcy.

In these conditions, there is a need to improve methodological approaches to the formation of a strategy aimed at creating competitive advantages, maintaining financial stability, which would allow enterprises to efficiently use resources and make strategic decisions, responding to all changes taking place in the organization's market environment.

The formation of a scientific base for ensuring the long-term profitability of Russian enterprises belongs to the "responsibility" of the theory of strategic management.

Unfortunately, real achievements in this area are not very great, and unequivocal empirical evidence of the effectiveness of strategic management has not yet been found. It is not surprising that managers in practice devote so little time to future analysis and strategic planning, which often degenerates into a set of rituals that cover up real decision-making processes.

These problems are largely caused by the fact that the dominant concepts of strategic management are not quite adequate. modern conditions business. Therefore, there is a need to develop strategic management concepts that adequately reflect the features of the "knowledge economy", in which the key resource of Russian enterprises is intellectual capital - the totality of knowledge, skills and connections necessary to create value.

The development of the Russian economy is generally in line with global trends. In Russia, although lagging far behind the leading countries, the information sector of the economy is developing, the degree of internationalization of the economic activity of enterprises is growing, and the proportion of people engaged mainly in mental work is increasing. Ensuring the competitiveness of Russian enterprises in an economy open to foreign firms is impossible without understanding the specifics of post-industrial business. Significant problems are observed in this area at Russian enterprises: as a rule, there are no substantiated strategic development programs; strategic objectives are not aligned with available resources; managers and specialists do not have a common vision for the future of their organizations, enterprises do not have strong brands, etc. All of the above fully applies to organizations whose shares are quoted on trading floors RTS and MICEX systems, where these problems determined the relevance of research in the field of forming business strategies of an organization in the conditions of the global financial crisis, and predetermined the choice of the topic of the thesis.

The purpose of the thesis is to develop recommendations for substantiating the business strategy and financial concept of the organization in the context of the global crisis.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved in the thesis work:

Consider the strategic aspects of the functioning of the organization in a global crisis;

Justify the choice of the financial mechanism for the functioning of the organization in a crisis;

To analyze the financial strategy of the enterprise in a crisis;

Identify strategic issues;

The theoretical and methodological basis of the thesis was the works of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of theory and practice of competition, marketing, fundamentals of management theory, economic theory. In the course of the work, legislative and regulatory legal acts were studied Russian Federation and resolutions of the Government of the Russian Federation on issues related to the maintenance market activity organizations, materials of indices and quotations in the Russian trading system.

The object of the study is the communication enterprise JSC "Armada".

The subject of the study is organizational and managerial relations that arise in the process of diagnosing an enterprise's strategy in a crisis. The information base of the thesis consists of materials of monographic studies, publications in periodicals, legal acts, materials of conferences and seminars, information from statistical authorities, financial and economic reporting on the activities of industrial enterprises

Section 1. Strategic aspects of the functioning of the enterprise

in times of crisis

1.1. Content and principles of strategic planning

at an enterprise in a crisis

Currently, domestic companies operate in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which has had a negative impact on the activities of many sectors of the economy associated with the globalization of the world economic space.

The process of strategic planning is the forecasting of the socio-economic development of the enterprise, the search for new opportunities, the choice of strategies.

In a crisis, the strategic planning process corrects the existing development strategy of the enterprise, reduces planning time, and excludes various opportunities in order to preserve the integrity of the company and the possibility of its survival.

The main tool of strategic planning is the process of forming a financial strategy, interpreting it as a concept of creating and using a competitive advantage, covering the formation of finance and their planning to ensure the financial stability of the enterprise.

Strategic planning, first of all, involves determining the competitive position of the enterprise in the market and in the industry.

In modern conditions, the growth rate of consumer requirements for the quality of goods (services) is growing exponentially, and competitiveness tends to depend on and spread to the immediate environment of the enterprise.

Therefore, strategic planning should be carried out by the enterprise together with its suppliers and partners, which will create the basis for the formation and maintenance of competitive advantages in a crisis.

The logical chain of the determination process core competencies, consisting of five main blocks, is shown in Figure 1.1

Figure 1.1 - The process of identifying key competencies (QC) of the enterprise

What are the goals of developing the corresponding object of strategic planning in a crisis?;

What should be the sequence of the process of developing managerial decisions in the form of strategic forecasts, programs and plans, in a crisis?;

What should be the strategic forecasts, programs and plans themselves, and what requirements should they meet?;

What methodological approaches to solving what problems of strategic planning should be used in a crisis?

The solution of any problems of management, and, consequently, of strategic planning, in a crisis has certain principles.

Пoд принципами cтpaтeгичecкoгo плaниpoвaния пoнимaют yпopядoчeннyю пocлeдoвaтeльнocть, взaимocoглacoвaннocть и oбocнoвaннocть пpoцeдyp, cвязaнныx c peшeниeм любoй пpoблeмы cтpaтeгичecкoгo плaниpoвaния в условиях кризиса, a тaкжe oпpeдeлeниe иcxoднoгo пyнктa, oттaлкивaяcь oт кoтopoгo oни дoлжны peшaтьcя и кoтopoмy дoлжeн пoдчинятьcя вecь пpoцecc плaнoвoй paбoты.

Strategic planning provides the basis for all management decisions.

The functions of organization, motivation and control are focused on the development of strategic plans.

Without taking advantage of strategic planning, organizations as a whole and individuals will be deprived of a clear way to assess the purpose and direction of the corporate enterprise.

The strategic planning process provides the basis for managing members of the organization, which enables shareholders and company management to determine the direction and pace of business development, outline global market trends, understand what organizational and structural changes should occur in the company, in a crisis, what is its advantage What tools does she need to successful development in future.

Until recently strategic planning was the prerogative of large international concerns. However, the situation began to change, and, as surveys show, more and more companies representing medium business begin to engage in strategic planning.

Thus, we can conclude that strategic planning in a crisis is the most important tool that allows you to adjust the prospects for further development of a company in a crisis, make the process of functioning in a crisis manageable and creates an opportunity to determine the possibilities of overcoming the financial crisis.

1.2. Approaches to the process of developing an enterprise development strategy

in times of crisis

The process of developing an enterprise development strategy in a global crisis can consist of the following steps:

Definition of short-term goals of the organization;

Analysis of the environment, which includes the collection of information, analysis of strengths and weaknesses the firm, as well as its potential opportunities based on the available external and internal information in a crisis;

Choice of strategy, special attention to financial strategy;

Implementation of strategic decisions;

Evaluation and control of implementation;

Strategic analysis in times of crisis is the main element of strategic planning.

This analysis acts as a strategic management tool, with the help of which the company's management identifies and evaluates its activities in order to maintain liquidity and financial stability, using all the most profitable and promising areas. The main method of analysis is the construction of two-dimensional matrices. With the help of such matrices, productions, departments, processes, products are compared according to the relevant criteria.

There are three approaches to the formation of matrices:

1. A tabular approach, in which the values ​​of varying parameters increase as they move away from the column of the name of these parameters. In this case, the portfolio analysis is carried out from the upper left corner to the lower right.

2. The coordinate approach, in which the values ​​of the variable parameters increase with distance from the point of intersection of the coordinates.

Portfolio analysis here is conducted from the lower left corner to the upper right.

3. A logical approach, in which the portfolio is analyzed from the lower right corner to the upper left. Such a campaign is most widely used in foreign practice.

4. Environmental analysis is necessary in the implementation of strategic analysis, because. its result is the receipt of information on the basis of which estimates are made regarding the current position of the enterprise in the market.

Environmental analysis involves the study of its three components:

External environment;

immediate environment;

The internal environment of the organization.

The analysis of the external environment includes the study of the impact of the crisis on the economy as a whole, legal regulation and management, political processes, natural environment and resources, social and cultural components of society, scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc. in terms of impact on the company's activities.

The immediate environment is analyzed according to the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market.

Analysis internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in a crisis in the process of achieving its goals.

The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas:

Personnel of the company, their potential, qualifications, interests, etc.; management organization;

Production, including organizational, operational and technical and technological characteristics and research and development; company finances;

Marketing;

Organizational culture.

Block process		Executed subprocesses	Tool used
1 Strategic analysis		Complex analysis external and internal environment;	Steiner's product-market model. STEP analysis of the macro environment. Porter's "5 forces of industry competition" model. Campbell's model "Industry Resource Analysis", SWOT-analysis.
2 Strategic forecasting		Forecasting trends in the development of the situation; scenario development	Heuristic: "Delphi", PATTERN, MAI, OTSP, SSO, TMP. Economic and mathematical: Brown, Holt, Holt-Winters models, evolution method for two- and three-parameter models, MAF method, harmonic weights method, linear time series models, correlation, regression, factor analysis
4 Strategic choice	Formation of a set of alternative strategies; selection of the most effective strategy			Correlation SWOT analysis, model life cycle product, portfolio analysis models Calculation of financial indicators of alternative strategies
4 Strategic controlling	Strategy implementation planning, control and adjustment			Balanced system indicators (BSC). Budgeting. Designing organizational change. Planning change by goals

This toolkit is based on the theory of general competition, not allowing mutual support, which contradicts the main postulate of modern management - partnership and cooperation. There is also a deeper approach in the concept of strategic planning, which is based on the principle of "forecast-strategy-plan" (Figure 1.2) i.e. from the standpoint of building the "ideal enterprise" and "ideal product" models, reflecting strategic goals enterprise development.

Figure 1.2 - Tools for building a strategic planning system at an enterprise in a crisis

The "ideal enterprise" model is a set of specific parameters for industrial, financial, commercial activities, information technology, corporate culture; "ideal product" - functionality, ergonomics and safety, quality, breadth of assortment, exclusivity, service.

The above approach is distinguished by a more complete coverage of all elements of the strategic planning system and its components, which ensures the effectiveness of its application in the process of managing an enterprise in a crisis, as it is focused on achieving long-term competitive advantages.

At the same time, a special role is assigned to the process of ensuring the quality of products at the stage of product development and pre-production, which meets the requirements of the TQM management system implemented at domestic enterprises during their certification according to the requirements of international standards ISO 9004-2001.

In general, the review of the data allows us to conclude that the implementation of the set of tools listed in Table 1.1 and the above approach to strategic planning allow the use of more advanced tools in a crisis.

According to M. Porter, there are three main strategies that are universal and applicable to any competitive force.

It's a cost advantage, differentiation, focus. Each of the main strategies requires the selection of a specific kind of economic resources and skills, as well as certain managerial decisions. Along with advantages in a competitive position, general strategies involve certain risks.

The financial strategy of the enterprise and the set of rules and techniques corresponding to it is aimed primarily at the effective implementation of the financial potential of the enterprise.

The expediency of developing a financial strategy arises, for example, in conditions of steadily growing demand, when there is practically no competition in any industry. A review of the financial strategy should always be carried out when the risk of bankruptcy is likely to increase.

The basic strategy of competition, which is the basis competitive behavior enterprise in the market and describing the scheme for providing advantages over competitors, is a central point in the strategic orientation of the enterprise. All subsequent marketing activities of the enterprise in a crisis depend on its correct choice.

Unlike tactical actions in the market, the strategy of competition should be aimed at providing an advantage over competitors in times of crisis.

Thus, the concept of typical strategies is based on the idea that each strategy is based on competitive advantage and that in order to achieve it in a crisis, a company must justify and choose its strategy taking into account factors of its own competitiveness.

In terms of cost leadership strategy, there are many ways to reduce costs while maintaining industry average quality.

However, some ways to reduce costs are associated with moving along the experience curve, increasing the scale of production to achieve maximum savings.

The philosophy of economies of scale in production is based on the so-called experience curve. It was proposed in 1926 when, through empirical analysis, it was found that the cost of producing a unit of output falls by 20% every time output doubles.

According to this theory, increasing the company's market share is emphasized, since this allows you to increase production volumes and move down the curve towards lower production costs. This is how you can achieve a higher level of income and profit margins and, consequently, greater competitiveness of the enterprise in the market in a crisis.

Moreover, the crisis has both negative and positive aspects. For example, in the face of a decline in the competitiveness of firms in the market, a more financially secure organization can organize a strategy of greater market coverage by offering existing buyers in a crisis more favorable conditions, which will allow it to receive additional competitive advantages.

Understanding the needs of the customer is central to this strategy.

The firm needs to know what is valued by customers, provide exactly the required set of qualities and, accordingly, set the price.

If the firm is successful, then a certain group of buyers in this market segment will not consider products offered by other companies as a substitute for its products. The firm thus creates a group of loyal customers, almost a mini-monopoly.

A successful differentiation strategy reduces the intensity of competition that often occurs in times of crisis. If suppliers raise prices, "loyal" buyers with little price sensitivity are more likely to accept the final price increase offered by the manufacturer of the exclusive product.

Moreover, customer loyalty plays the role of a kind of barrier for new manufacturers to enter the market and replace this product with other similar products. However, a differentiation strategy is not a risk-free strategy.

First, if the basis of differentiation, that is, what a firm wants to be different from others, can be easily copied, other firms will be perceived as offering the same product or service. Then competition in this industry is likely to turn into price competition.

Second, firms that focus on broad differentiation may be marginalized by firms that focus on only one particular segment.

Thirdly, if the strategy is based on the process of continuous product improvement (with the goal of always being one step ahead of its competitors), then the company risks simply being at a disadvantage, as it will bear the maximum costs of research and development, while competitors will use the results of its activities to their advantage.

Fourth, if the firm ignores the costs of differentiation, then raising prices will not increase profits.

A focus strategy involves choosing a narrow segment or group of segments in an industry and meeting the needs of that segment more effectively than competitors serving a broader market segment can.

The focus strategy can be applied by both a cost leader serving a given segment and a differentiator that meets the special requirements of a market segment in a way that allows high prices to be charged. So firms can compete broadly (serving multiple segments) or focus narrowly (targeted action). Both variants of the focus strategy are based on the differences between the target and the rest of the industry segments.

It is these differences that can be called the reason for the formation of a segment that is poorly served by competitors who carry out large-scale activities and are not able to adapt to the specific needs of this segment. A cost-focused firm can outperform a consumer-oriented firm by its ability to eliminate "excesses" that are not valued in that segment.

Moreover, broad differentiation and focused differentiation are often confused. The difference between the two is mainly that a broadly differentiated company bases its strategy on widely valued differentiators, while a focused manufacturer seeks out a segment with specific needs and satisfies them much better.

The obvious danger of the focus strategy is that the target segment may disappear for any reason. In addition, some other firms will enter this segment, surpassing this firm in focus, and lure buyers, or for some reason (for example, tastes will change, demographic changes will occur), the segment will shrink.

Following one or another typical strategy makes it necessary for the firm to have certain restrictions (barriers) that would make it difficult for competitors to imitate (copy) the strategies chosen by it. Since these barriers are not insurmountable, a firm is usually required to offer its competitors a changing goal through constant investment and innovation.

For all the distinctness and diversity of M. Porter's typical strategies, they nevertheless have common elements: both strategies require entrepreneurs to pay great attention to both product quality and cost control.

F. Kotler offers his own classification of competitive strategies based on the market share owned by an enterprise (firm).

1. The strategy of the "leader". The “leading” company of the product market occupies a dominant position, and this is also recognized by its competitors. The leading firm has a set of strategic alternatives at its disposal:

Expansion of primary demand, aimed at discovering new consumers of the product, expanding the scope of its use, increasing the one-time use of the product, which is usually advisable to apply at the initial stages of the product life cycle

A defensive strategy that an innovator firm adopts to protect its market share from its most dangerous competitors;

An offensive strategy, most often consisting of increasing profitability by exploiting the experience effect as widely as possible. However, as practice shows, there is a certain limit, above which a further increase in market share becomes unprofitable;

A demarketing strategy that involves reducing one's market share in order to avoid accusations of monopoly.

Challenger strategy. A firm that does not occupy a dominant position can attack the leader, that is, challenge him. The purpose of this strategy is to take the place of the leader. In this case, the solution of two most important tasks becomes key: choosing a springboard for attacking the leader and assessing the possibilities of his reaction and defense.

Follow-the-leader strategy. A "follow-the-leader" is a competitor with a small market share that chooses adaptive behavior by aligning its decisions with those made by competitors. Such a strategy is most typical for small businesses, so let's take a closer look at possible strategic alternatives that provide small businesses with the most acceptable level of profitability.

Creative market segmentation. small firm should focus only on certain market segments in which it can better exercise its competence or have greater agility to avoid major competitors.

Use R&D effectively. Since small businesses cannot compete with large companies in the field of fundamental research, insofar as they should focus R&D on improving technologies in order to reduce costs.

Stay small. Successful small businesses focus on profit rather than increasing sales or market share, and they tend to specialize rather than diversify.

Strong leader. The influence of the manager in such firms goes beyond formulating a strategy and communicating it to employees, covering also the management of the current activities of the company.

specialist strategy. The "specialist" focuses mainly on only one or several market segments, i.e., he is more interested in the qualitative side of the market share.

Based on the reviewed material, we draw the following conclusions:

1. The process of substantiation and formation of the goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise in a crisis is influenced by the value system of its top management, within which it is advisable to single out internal and external system values ​​of top managers.

2. In the process of determining the system of goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise in a crisis, two key points must be taken into account.

Firstly, any goal characterizes the direction of development of the enterprise in a certain period of time, which is its qualitative characteristic.

Secondly, the goal defines the desired state, which should be achieved by the enterprise after a certain period of time. This is the quantitative characteristic of the goal.

3. The process of forming the goals of the strategic development plan of the enterprise is significantly influenced by the level of its organizational culture, which can and should be considered as a strategic factor in the development of the enterprise.

The formation of the goals of the strategic plan for the development of an enterprise (actually goal-setting) is a logical process that can be systematized to a certain extent, but cannot be formalized. At the same time, it should be interactive in order to achieve a balance between the goals and a specific program of action that ensures their full implementation.

4. The concept of model strategies is based on the idea that each strategy is based on competitive advantage and that in order to achieve it, the firm must justify and choose its strategy.

Thus, companies that wish to gain competitive advantage and market resilience in a crisis must choose only one of the strategies and strive for excellence in it.

2.2. Methodology for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise

To assess the financial condition, the following groups of indicators are calculated:

liquidity;

financial stability;

Profitability.

Consider the formulas for these indicators by groups.

The first indicator of liquidity is the current liquidity ratio:

Current liquidity ratio (Kt.l.), or coverage ratio, is equal to the ratio of the value of all current (mobile) assets of the enterprise to the value of short-term liabilities. The value of this indicator from 1 to 2 is considered the most acceptable in modern conditions.

The second indicator is the quick liquidity ratio. The quick liquidity ratio is determined by the ratio of the most liquid part of current assets, that is, excluding the least liquid part of current assets - stocks, to short-term liabilities:

The third ratio is the absolute liquidity ratio. The absolute liquidity ratio shows what part of short-term liabilities can be repaid immediately:

Meaning Cal.l. ≥ 0.2 positively characterizes the quality of liquidity management.

Financial stability indicators characterize the degree of protection of the interests of investors and creditors. The basis for their calculation is the value of property, therefore, in order to analyze financial stability, closer attention should be paid to the company's liabilities.

The most important indicator of this group of indicators is the coefficient of maneuverability equity(Km.sk.).

Sufficiently high level Km.sk. considered 0.5. In this case, the risk of creditors is minimized. Having sold half of the property, the company will be able to pay off its debt obligations, even if the second half, in which the borrowed funds are invested, is depreciated for some reason. The value of the inverse Km.sk. is the coefficient of financial independence (Kf.z):

The dependence of the enterprise on external loans characterizes the ratio of borrowed and own funds. This ratio is determined using the debt capital concentration ratio (Кз):

How more value indicator, the higher the degree of risk of shareholders, since in case of non-fulfillment of payment obligations, the possibility of bankruptcy of the enterprise increases. The standard value of the indicator is 0.5-1. Its critical value is equal to one. The excess of the amount of debt over the amount of own funds indicates that the financial stability of the enterprise is in doubt.

To characterize the ratio of borrowed funds and other elements of capital, the coefficient of the ratio of own and borrowed funds (Ks.zk.sk) is calculated:

A good characteristic of the sustainability of an enterprise is its ability to develop in changing conditions of the internal and external environment.

Profitability indicators allow you to evaluate the performance of the enterprise as a whole. They also provide an opportunity to compare alternative options for the use of advanced resources and current costs in terms of their effectiveness.

For rate business activity joint-stock companies (or enterprises paying dividends on securities), the economic growth sustainability coefficient is applied:

The numerator of this ratio P N- div „ represents the net income minus dividends paid to shareholders. If dividends are not paid, this indicator is the same as the net return on assets. Other indicators of profitability are also important. A characteristic of management efficiency is the profitability of products:

where: Pr - profit from sales.

Рп - shows the share of profit from sales in each ruble of turnover.

Cost efficiency for the main activity and for its other types allows you to compare the profitability of the main activity:

where: SPT is the cost of production and sales of products (line 020 + line 030 + line 040 (form No. 2)). It shows the share of profit from sales in each ruble of the cost of goods sold, serves as a characteristic of management efficiency and the correctness of the chosen strategy.

Return on total capital (Rsov.k) comparing its value with the value of R.d allows you to identify reserves to improve the efficiency of the enterprise.

where: Pch - net profit of the enterprise.

If Rsov.k will be more than Ro.d , This means that there is reason to think about whether this type of activity should be left as the main one for the enterprise. The application of this indicator is based on the assumption that profit is generated by capital and does not depend on the value of property. The assessment of the company's capital in this case directly depends on the amount of net profit, confirming that capital is an asset that can make a profit.

The disadvantage of this approach should be considered too much conditional assessment of capital and focus more on future income than on actually received. Another important disadvantage of the return on total capital is that it distorts the idea of financial results businesses under inflation. He evaluates the effectiveness economic activity depending on the amount of profit received for reporting period, but in the future, the enterprise may face a completely new situation. Important Information For reflection, the shareholders of the enterprise are given knowledge of the return on equity (Rsk):

This indicator allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of managing the capital advanced at the stage of organizing an enterprise. The growth of the indicator indicates that financial managers skillfully use the attracted financial resources.

One of the key performance indicators of the enterprise is the total return on assets (Ra). It represents the ratio of book profit to the value of the property, i.e. the amount of economic funds (assets) at the disposal of the enterprise:

where: Pb - balance sheet profit;

Asr - the average value of the assets of the enterprise (p. 190) for the analyzed period.

Net return on current assets (Rch.a) shows what net profit the company receives from each ruble invested in assets:

where: ОАср - the average value of current assets of the enterprise.

Having considered a considerable number of evaluation criteria, however, we can conclude that these indicators, in general, can give an idea of ​​the financial condition of the enterprise, and comparing these indicators with those of competitors can give an idea of ​​the financial competitiveness of the object of study.

In 2007, the company's revenue was $133 million and net income was $13 million. In 2008, the revenue decreased by 70%. In general, according to the media, the company's financial activities developed in accordance with the plans developed, but the impact of the global financial crisis significantly reduced the company's capitalization due to a sharp drop in the company's stock prices.

The company's client base consists of more than 700 large and medium-sized companies from various sectors of the economy, as well as state structures.

In ARMADA's portfolio of IT contracts, approximately 50% of revenue comes from commercial Russian companies, about 40% from orders from government agencies, and 10% from orders from foreign clients.

In the beginning, we will calculate a group of indicators characterizing the financial stability and liquidity of the company, Table. 2.1.

Table 2.1

Liquidity and Financial Stability Indicators of OJSC Armada in 2007-2008

Indicator			Change
Current liquidity ratio (Ktl)
Quick liquidity ratio (Kbl)
Absolute liquidity ratio (Cal)
The ratio of own and borrowed funds (Ks.zk.sk)
Debt capital concentration ratio (Кз)
Financial Independence Ratio (Kf.z)
Equity maneuverability ratio (Km.sk.)

In 2008 current, quick and absolute liquidity ratios decreased. The greatest change is observed in the absolute liquidity ratio, which decreased by more than two times and amounted to 0.72 at the end of 2008.

A decrease in liquidity ratios means a drop in the company's ability to repay its debts, however, the high value of the current (4.44) and quick liquidity ratios (6.57) indicates the ability of Armada OJSC to use more credit and attracted financial resources in its turnover, without losing financial independence.

The indicators of financial stability also testify to the significant potential of the company. For every ruble of borrowed funds in 2008, there are 13.74 rubles of own financial resources.

In general, the calculation of liquidity and financial stability indicators indicates a high stability and sufficiency cash enterprises, which is very important, as it characterizes a high potential for competitiveness.

Data on the dynamics of the company's revenue are presented in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2

Revenue of Armada JSC in 2007-2008

In 2008, Armada demonstrated organic growth in consolidated revenue, which increased by 27% in dollar terms (unaudited IFRS).

The share of proceeds from state structures has grown to 75%, and each of the largest clients brought no more than 10% of total income. The share of long-term contracts has increased to approximately 30%.

For a complete assessment financial condition JSC "Armada" will calculate the indicators characterizing the performance of the company, table. 2.3.

Table 2.3

The performance of JSC "Armada" in 2007-2008

Indicator			Change
Economic Growth Sustainability Ratio (Kst)
Product profitability (Rp)
Profitability of the main activity (Kin)
Return on total capital (Rsov.k)
Return on equity (Rsk)
Total return on assets (Ra)
Net profitability of current assets (Рч.а)

The calculation of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of activities showed that, compared with 2007, there was a deterioration in the performance of the enterprise. This is caused by two main factors:

1. Decreased net profit due to the financial crisis;

2. There was a significant drop in the company's capitalization.

As a result, operating profitability declined, with operating profitability down 29.2%.

The only indicator that tends to increase is the return on assets, which increased by 101.8%.

Thus, we can conclude that the indicators of the financial condition indicate that, in general, the performance indicators of JSC "Armada" have significantly decreased under the influence of the global financial crisis. More accurately this conclusion confirms the dynamics of prices for the company's shares listed in the Russian Trading System (RTS) presented in fig. 2.1 and 2.2. With the help of stock trading, the company managed to attract significant amounts of financial resources, which were diversified into new developments and the purchase of promising companies, which in the future made it possible to significantly improve the financial inflow of financial resources and financial condition.

Trading in the shares of JSC "Armada" continues on the stock exchange to the present. The dynamics of demand for shares and their market price depended on the conjuncture of the Russian trading system. Thus, since July 31, 2007, the shares of Armada JSC have been listed on the stock exchange at a price of 323 rubles or 16.4 US dollars. Dynamics of changes in the share price in US dollars is shown in fig. 2.1.

As can be seen from fig. 2.1. The global financial crisis and the sharp drop in the RTS index in the second half of 2008 led to a significant drop in the selling price of shares in OAO Armada. As of 01.03.2009, at the time of closing, shares of OAO Armada were trading at a price of $1 per share.

Rice. 2.1. Dynamics of the sale price of shares of JSC "Armada" (USD) for the period from 31.07.2007 to 01.03.2009

Thus, the share price has fallen 16 times since the company's IPO on March 1, 2009. This had a significant impact on the company's capitalization, the dynamics of which is shown in Fig. 2.3.

Rice. 2.2. Capitalization of JSC "Armada" (USD) for the period from 31.07.2007 to 01.03.2009

From the moment of the IPO until 07/01/2008, the capitalization of the company JSC "Armada" has been constantly increasing, which confirms the calculations made to justify the market value of the company's shares at the time of the initial offering, however, the global financial crisis brought down the company's capitalization, as a result of which we can conclude that as of 01.03 .2009 the financial possibilities of the company are sharply limited and the company suffered significant losses. The correction, as noted above, affected the company's financial performance, which declined. However, given that the company as a whole is focused mainly on domestic market, we can conclude that the share price will grow in the future, since the potential of the IT market in Russia is very high. This confirms the gradual increase in the price of the company's shares, which began in April 2009, and although it develops in different directions, it tends to increase, fig. 2.3.

Rice. 2.3 Dynamics of the value of the shares of JSC "Armada" and the RTS index from 02.06.08 to 25.09.2009

Thus, we can conclude that the global financial crisis had a negative impact on the activities of JSC "Armada", which caused the need for management at the end of 2008 to revise its financial development strategy for the period of the crisis.

3.2. Analysis of strategic alternatives of an enterprise in a crisis

The main sales market for JSC ARMADA products is the Russian IT market, which is one of the fastest growing segments Russian economy: its average annual growth rate was in 2003-2007. 23-25%, and in 2008 the growth was 0.5%, and this is one of the best indicators of the growth of the IT market among developed countries in the world.

In the five-year forecast period (2009-2013) spending on IT in Russia will grow annually by an average of 5.8% and in 2012 will amount to $29.5 billion.

In terms of market volumes, 2009 may turn out to be similar to 2007 in dollar terms, as the impact of the financial crisis will subside during 2009, while the capitalization of Armada OJSC will increase.

According to Gartner's forecast, the Russian IT market in 2009 will grow by 2.7-5.7% compared to sales in 2008 ($17.23 billion).

In a crisis, outsourcing can become an option for optimizing IT costs for customers.

As the experience of Western countries shows, the economic downturns of recent years were accompanied by an increase in investment in outsourcing. Volumes of IT outsourcing in 2009 will not decrease,

First of all, IT costs in 2009 will be reduced by not buying hardware. Companies' PC upgrade cycles will be extended, and new planned projects will be "frozen" or downsized.

One of the main drivers of the IT sector in recent years is the public sector. The public sector has a significant impact on the industry due to the annual increase in federal and regional spending on IT, as well as the beginning of active informatization of the social sphere, caused by the launch of priority national projects.

In the coming years, this trend will not only continue, but will further intensify due to allocations for the development of "Electronic Government".

Currently, ARMADA does not intend to expand into foreign markets, as it sees great strategic prospects in the Russian market, including in the provision of IT services to the public sector.

The following factors may adversely affect the sale of ARMADA products - the risk of a decrease in demand in all sales markets due to a slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy.

To minimize this risk, ARMADA pursues a policy of constant cost-effectiveness control, but at the same time strives to provide the highest quality services, which will ensure the development of competencies necessary to form a long-term competitive advantage over competitors.

Currently, the Russian IT market is actively developing: there are already a significant number of players on the market (more than 5,000), but no single participant controls more than 10% of the market (less than 40% of the market falls to the share of the 20 largest companies).

Section 4. Analysis of the results of the studies

The analysis carried out according to the data of JSC "Armada" allows us to draw the following conclusions:

The global financial crisis has a significant impact on the shares of companies that are traded on the market valuable papers;

The global financial crisis has had a greater impact on the corporate sector of the Russian economy than on the public sector;

JSC "Armada" expects a decrease in demand from the corporate sector for its own products and services and expects an increase in demand from the public sector;

The impact of the global financial crisis affected the financial condition of JSC "Armada", the indicators of the financial condition deteriorated;

The price of the shares of JSC "Armada" traded on the RTS has fallen significantly, and as of September 2009, although there is a trend in the growth of the share price, it is much lower than before the crisis;

JSC "Armada" builds its business on the basis of borrowed capital both in the form of bank loans, including foreign ones, and through borrowing in the securities market;

JSC "Armada" allocates the funds raised to the acquisition of the most promising companies in the field of development software products and IT outsourcing;

The strategic goal of ARMADA for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

In the future, Armada OJSC will continue to attract financial resources in order to purchase market players in order to achieve its strategic goal.

The market development strategy is to form in the foreseeable future 3-5 major players that control more than half of the market.

Thus, we can conclude that, despite the financial crisis, the company has the opportunity, due to the fact that it is one of the largest market players, to consolidate assets by purchasing smaller companies to increase its market share.

Thus, JSC "Armada" has three main strategic alternatives for the next 3 years:

Strategic purchases of niche leaders - companies with their own product, innovative technologies of the company that complement its business;

Expanding our own product and service line by investing in development, expertise and partnerships;

Synergy through cross-selling an extended product line to existing and new customers.

The goal of the Armada OJSC group for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

The company does not plan to shift its priorities towards low-margin products and services such as distribution, hardware and others.

Armada expects that in 2009 IT services will continue to develop at a faster pace.

Many companies, in an effort to optimize costs, will partially reduce their own IT resources, resorting to the services of third parties. Currently, Soyuzinform, which is part of Armada, is one of the leaders in the Russian IT outsourcing market, which allows it to count on an increase in the number of orders.

In addition, the crisis provides successful companies with additional opportunities - weak players leave the market or are consolidated by stronger ones.

The company has a stable portfolio of orders, has successfully optimized costs, has no debts and does not need long-term external financing, so it will be able to increase profitability.

2009 the company intends to continue the strategy of "mergers and acquisitions" - M&A. Armada is currently actively negotiating with various IT companies for takeover.

The financial crisis has created a unique opportunity to acquire assets with huge growth potential at very attractive prices.

The company expects that after the end of the economic downturn, Armada, as one of the few public IT companies in Russia with no debt burden, with significant M&A experience, will have an advantage over competitors in the upcoming consolidation in the industry.

Combining organic growth and an acquisition strategy will help achieve the goal of occupying about 5% of the Russian IT market in the medium term.

Section 5. Identification of strategic problems and possible solutions

In the context of the financial crisis, there is a possibility of a slowdown in the growth of demand for IT solutions from customers, and as a result, increased competition in all segments of the IT market.

The largest decline in demand for services will occur in the corporate segment, which is also suffering from the crisis, and therefore will undergo a greater correction than in the segment of government customers. As a result, the income and profitability of the company may decrease.

To solve this problem, JSC "Armada" should concentrate its competitive advantages in the sector of IT solutions for government agencies.

The IT market is actively developing: technologies, industrial standards are changing, new types of services are appearing, and consumer requirements are constantly growing. The success of Armada OJSC will depend on its ability to adequately respond to changes in modern technologies and the IT market as a whole. If ARMADA OJSC fails to achieve this, then consumer interest in the services and products of ARMADA OJSC may fall, which may adversely affect its activities and financial condition.

To minimize this problem, JSC "Armada" attracts professional specialists and constantly searches for new technologies and innovations, invests heavily in the development of new technologies and product lines of the company.

The development of JSC "Armada" in particular is based on plans to acquire other IT companies. In connection with a possible correction in the IT market, the problems of making investments are increasing. On the other hand, there is a strategic problem that the most attractive in the long term but depreciated in the short term will be bought by competitors.

To minimize the first problem, as before, ARMADA pays considerable attention to assessing the risks of making acquisitions. An important role is played by the experience of several years of systematic activity carried out by JSC "Armada" to search for and offer favorable conditions to companies of interest to it. The company will continue to maintain its contacts with potential assets, which will allow more accurate forecasting of problems from the acquisition of an asset.

To minimize the second problem, the company should consider various options for structuring and paying transactions, including share swaps.

The company has always tried to minimize problems with key employees. Such employees are top managers, project managers, salespeople, key specialists.

The company must provide employees with a constant competitive market level of wages and bonuses, social benefits and compensation, as well as a career development program. The Company should use adaptation mechanisms for newly hired employees, aimed at the speedy inclusion of new employees in the work, and also takes care of the training of young specialists, much attention is paid to training in staff development.

The intellectual property rights of JSC ARMADA are protected by copyrights, trademark rights, trade secret laws, user policies, license agreements and disclosure restrictions.

At the same time, third parties may be able to unauthorizedly copy the software developed by ARMADA OJSC, or otherwise illegally use the intellectual property of ARMADA OJSC.

Problems of JSC "Armada" in protecting its intellectual property rights from infringement or illegal use may adversely affect its financial position and ability to conduct commercial activity. In addition, there is a risk that Armada OJSC will be involved in legal proceedings to protect its intellectual property rights. Any litigation of JSC "Armada" may adversely affect its activities and financial position.

JSC "Armada" rents office space and in the event of an increase in rental prices, this may adversely affect the results of its activities. However, according to numerous analysts' forecasts, the current turbulent market situation may lead to a decrease in rental rates due to falling demand.

If the cost of production of OJSC ARMADA increases (in particular, due to higher tax rates, the introduction of new currency legislation, the establishment of new requirements for licensing activities carried out by the Holding companies), and OJSC ARMADA will not be able to adequately increase prices for their products to cover such costs (for example, due to increased competition and lower prices for similar services), this may adversely affect the results of economic activities. Therefore, to solve this problem, it is necessary to constantly look for opportunities to minimize your costs by more effective management projects.

Changes in the global economy have already begun to adversely affect the Russian economy and are likely to continue to do so well into 2009. This may result in limited access of OJSC ARMADA to capital, and may also adversely affect the purchasing power of OJSC ARMADA's customers and, consequently, its commercial activities.

In order to minimize the dependence on these problems, ARMADA will focus on sectors where, on the one hand, the decline in demand, according to management forecasts, will be the smallest, and on the other hand, where the company has great competitive advantages. In the area of ​​market segments by customers, these are state structures and structures with a share of state capital. In terms of the company's product line segments, priority should still be given to high-margin products and services, such as software development and IT services.

To raise capital, Armada must use its transparency for investors, which is an advantage over a large number of closed competitor structures.

Risks associated with possible military conflicts, the introduction of a state of emergency and strikes in the country (countries) and region in which the issuer is registered as a taxpayer and/or carries out its main activities:

Military conflicts, introduction of a state of emergency, strikes, accidents at environmentally hazardous facilities in the Russian Federation may adversely affect the Issuer's activities.

The consequences of the crisis may lead to an increase in the cost of external financing for its transparency to investors (if such financing is needed).

Some costs are transparent to investors, such as wages for employees, and are sensitive to increases in the general price level in Russia. In such a situation, due to strong competition, its transparency to investors may not be able to raise the prices of its products sufficiently to keep the rate of return at the same level. Thus, inflation can increase the cost of its transparency to investors and lower rates of return, reducing the value of shares of its transparency to investors.

To minimize this problem, ARMADA enters into long-term contracts with customers (more than a year), in which the cost of work at the next stage is approved by the parties upon completion of work at the current stage, which allows taking into account changes in market conditions.

Exposure to the financial condition of JSC "Armada", its liquidity, funding sources, performance results, etc. changes in the exchange rate (currency risks).

A fall in the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar or the euro may have a negative impact on OJSC ARMADA, increasing the ruble equivalent of OJSC ARMADA's debt on loans and borrowings received in foreign currency (if such loans exist), and, accordingly, the cost of paying interest.

To minimize this problem, the majority of revenues and expenses of JSC "Armada" remains in rubles.

Thus, we have identified the main strategic problems of JSC "Armada" and we will develop recommendations for determining the goals of the enterprise's development in the context of the global financial crisis.

Section 6. Recommendations for changing the strategy in a crisis in terms of financial strategy

6.1. Determining the goals of enterprise development in a crisis

In 2009, in connection with the crisis, the emphasis on the tasks solved by IT will be different, and the shares in IT budgets will be revised. Thus, the largest part of IT budgets of companies - about 65-75%, aimed at covering operating costs, will be optimized in order to reduce IT costs. Funds allocated for innovation - about 10% and modernization and migration - about 25%, will be used to maintain the competitiveness of business at the end of the crisis and the development of new models of IT use. In such a situation, we do not exclude the possibility of using IT outsourcing.”

Successful purchases of companies with high growth potential in the early stages of their growth or at times of low value due to unfavorable market conditions, combined with opportunities already existing business JSC "Armada", can act as a catalyst for significant growth in the acquired businesses. The probability of occurrence of such events is quite high due to the rich accumulated experience in the choice of investment objects.

The company has historically started from highly profitable segments of the IT market, such as Software Development and Implementation and IT Services, and therefore has high-quality expertise, a mature corporate culture and significant intellectual potential in these areas. This allows Armada to more effectively than many competitors to combine with similar highly profitable IT businesses and get more synergies.

To develop the goals of JSC "Armada", we will determine the interests of the main groups of people who are interested in the organization's activities in the market, table 6.1.

Table 6.1

Interests of key stakeholder groups

Name of the person concerned	Main interest
1. Owner	Making a profit, raising one's own status
2. Employees of the organization	Prestige of the organization, high level of remuneration
3. Buyers of products and services	High level reliability and quality
4. Business partners	Permanent orders, convenient scheme of work, high solvency
5. IT market in Russia	The emergence of a major player with great opportunities
6. State as a whole	Production of IT products, competitiveness of IT products in comparison with competitors

Thus, we can conclude that the main interest of the activities of JSC "Armada" is that all persons are interested in the enterprise:

Received profit and increased capitalization;

Produced competitive products and services;

Acquired niche players in order to increase its market share.

Thus, on the basis of the represented interests, we will make goal-setting for the long-term period of the company.

Table 6.2

Goals of strategic planning of JSC "Armada"

The main objectives of strategic planning for Russian market is to attract financial resources, increase the company's capitalization, increase the market share to 3-5% with a moderate basic pricing policy.

The market share of OJSC "Armada" should be at least 3-5% in the period 2009-2012, and the pricing policy should be flexible and moderate in order to achieve the set goals. In the short term (up to a year), JSC "Armada" should strive to conclude a significant number of contracts, both in the public and corporate sectors.

Thus, we will form the main goals of the company's development for the next 3 years, formed under the influence of the global financial crisis:

1. Carrying out an M&A strategy to buy companies in the IT market and increase the company's share to 3-5% by 2012;

2. Expansion of the product line, in order to gain a foothold in the market;

3. Optimal borrowing policy using loans and the securities market.

6.2. Designing a strategic development program in a crisis

Prior to the onset of the crisis, Armada OJSC was developing steadily, which allowed it to make a profit, increase capitalization and attract significant resources from the securities market.

Prior to the crisis, Armada OJSC pursued a strategy of mergers and acquisitions of niche companies, and the financial crisis led to the fact that it became more difficult to attract borrowed funds and the price of borrowed capital increased. At the same time, the value of the acquired companies decreased. Thus, JSC "Armada" should take the following strategic actions in a crisis.

Rice. 6.1 - Strategic actions of JSC "Armada" in a crisis

Based on the selected strategic actions, we will justify the development strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012.

The corporate business strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012 is the implementation of corporate mergers and acquisitions in the IT market.

The implementation of this strategy of JSC "Armada" can have both positive and negative sides.

The positive side is the synergy effect.

Synergy is the effect of the addition of forces, exceeding the arithmetic sum. In accordance with it, JSC Armada arising from business integration can use a wide range of advantages (synergies) that arise as a result of combining the resources of these corporations. All synergies can be divided into two types: operational synergies and financial synergies.

Operational synergies are represented by the following effects.

1. Savings in transaction costs (agglomeration effect).

OJSC "Armada", as a result of the merger, can achieve a significant reduction in administrative, marketing and many other operating costs.

2. Savings on R&D (research and development).

JSC "Armada" can use the research centers of the acquired corporation, as well as its employees to create and implement new products, while significantly reducing the costs associated with such activities.

3. The effect of combining complementary resources.

JSC "Armada" and small companies often have complementary resources. When such companies merge, everyone wins: a small company gets access to financial resources, and Armada OJSC gets the product it needs at a low price (and there are no costs for developing its own production).

4. Increasing the size of the corporation's market niche.

Capturing a large segment of the market through a horizontal or vertical merger entails a significant reduction in competition in it, which is beneficial for the new corporation, but leads to market monopolization. That is why in many countries of the world in the past few decades there has been a fight against mergers that “restrict competition”.

Financial synergies are associated with the creation of tax shields (avoidance of taxation). The possibility of using a merger as a way to avoid taxation plays an important role among the factors that stimulate mergers. For example, Armada OJSC may decide to merge if one of them has tax benefits and the other does not. Then, if after the merger the tax benefits are extended to the new corporation, it is beneficial to both corporations.

The negative aspects of the implementation of the strategy include the following.

When implementing this strategy, top managers, having significant influence and power, no longer act in the interests of their shareholders, their main motive is their own interests, which often do not coincide with the interests of shareholders (see Table 6.3).

Table 6.3

Motivation of corporate management behavior

Problem	Definition
Motivation	Managers have reasons to put less effort into running a company than shareholders expect them to.
Choosing an investment horizon	Managers always have a shorter investment horizon than their shareholders. Managers prefer short-term projects that increase their own wealth over long-term projects that increase shareholder wealth.
risk taking	The well-being of a manager directly depends on whether he remains in his post or is removed from it (as a result of a decision of the board of directors or the bankruptcy of the company), so managers are always more careful in making decisions compared to their shareholders
Efficiency use of assets	Managers may have motives for inefficient use of the company's assets, since their own well-being does not directly depend on the impact of the use of assets on the value of the company.

Top managers have reasons for allowing their corporations to grow beyond their optimal size through mergers and acquisitions. Growth and, as a result, the concentration of resources under the control of management, increase their power.

In practice, in order to reduce the impact of this negative factor, JSC "Armada" should apply techniques for the activities of managers.

First of all, it is the control of the stock market. The capital market quickly signals to a company's shareholders (through the value of the company's shares on the stock market) that its management cares more about its own interests than about increasing their net wealth.

Another tool of control for shareholders can be contracts concluded with the manager when he is hired, which clearly spell out all his duties, decisions that he can and cannot make, the amount and conditions of his remuneration, etc.

A powerful new tool in this area can be the corporate control market with mergers and acquisitions, which does not materially exist, but its material measure exists - the stock market.

The main premise underlying the effective functioning of the corporate control market is the existence of a high positive correlation between the effectiveness of a company's management and the market value of its shares.

If a company under the control of its management performs unsatisfactorily, then this is reflected in the fall in the market value of its shares.

In this case, the company quickly becomes a potential takeover target from other companies that are guided by different motives:

Armada's managers may hope, through takeover or takeover, to capture the wealth of the target company's managers, which takes the form of wages, pensions, compensatory and bonus incentive schemes;

The underestimated value of the shares of the target company due to inefficient management of its current management may reflect its hidden potential, which will be revealed as soon as control over the corporation passes to more effective management. The lower the value of a share compared to what it would have had it been managed more effectively, the greater its attractiveness as a target company.

Thus, the corporate control market performs the following functions:

Resolves agency conflicts within the company by removing its inefficient management through mergers or acquisitions;

It improves the quality of company management, since with a developed market for corporate control, each manager understands that the lower the quality level of his management, the sooner his company will become the target of a takeover, which means that the chance of losing his job increases;

Increases the efficiency and competitiveness of the corporate sector of the national economy.

It allows you to quickly replace inefficient management with effective management and resolve agency conflicts, which significantly reduce the value of companies.

Thus, it can be concluded that JSC "Armada" in general uses a corporate growth strategy, which necessitated the use of scientific methods in substantiating mergers/acquisitions.

To a large extent, the main problem that JSC "Armada" may face is the problem of developing solutions for the formation corporate strategies mergers, taking into account the criteria of economic feasibility of their implementation.

Conclusion

Under the influence of the global financial crisis, there is a decrease in the solvency of various companies, and subsequently ordinary people, which leads to instability in the economic situation, which greatly complicates the process of determining strategic prospects.

The main provisions of strategic planning in a crisis are based on 2 possible situations of an enterprise's activity:

Stability;

Survival.

A stability strategy focuses on supporting existing lines of business through "low price" leadership, either differentiation (creating unique product features), or focusing on a specific market segment. This strategy is implemented only in those segments where the company's competitive advantages are significant.

The survival strategy is applied due to existing internal or external reasons that have led the enterprise to a critical situation. This strategy is expressed through "harvesting" - obtaining the maximum income in the short term; "reversal" - the rejection of ineffective products; "separation" - the closure of unprofitable industries.

Combination of several types competitive strategy within a business portfolio represents a hybrid strategy.

Armada is a diversified IT holding whose main activities are software development, provision of IT services and equipment sales, while the high-margin segments IT Services and Software Development and Implementation fall into the scope of the company's main priorities.

JSC "Armada" was formed in early 2007 as a result of the spin-off of the IT business from the RBC group. In July 2007, Armada was the first Russian IT company to place shares on Russian stock exchanges MICEX and RTS.

The funds raised as a result of the IPO were used to develop the business and make new acquisitions. Thus, during 2007 the group included PM Expert, Soyuzinform and ETS.

ARMADA's strategy is aimed at combining dynamic organic development and growth through the consolidation of new highly profitable assets.

The indicators of the financial condition indicate that, in general, the performance of JSC "Armada" has significantly decreased under the influence of the global financial crisis.

JSC "Armada" has three main strategic alternatives for the next 3 years:

Strategic purchases of niche leaders - companies with their own product, innovative technologies of the company that complement its business;

Expanding our own product and service line by investing in development, expertise and partnerships;

Synergy through cross-selling an extended product line to existing and new customers.

The goal of the Armada OJSC group for the next 3-5 years is to occupy 3-5% of the Russian IT market through the consolidation of leading niche market players and its own growth.

In 2009 JSC "Armada" should focus on minimizing the possible impact of the global financial crisis on demand among customers.

To do this, JSC "Armada" must continue to participate in government programs on the creation of large-scale information systems, which also provide a competitive advantage in competitions when concluding contracts to support the developed systems.

The financial crisis made adjustments to the company's activities, which reduced the possibility of raising borrowed funds, both in the securities market and from the banking sector. However, the financial crisis also affected the activities of other smaller companies, making them more attractive for takeovers.

The strategy of JSC "Armada" until 2012, implemented in the context of the global financial crisis in a broad sense, can be characterized as vertical integration in the form of any form of relationship between legally independent or non-independent enterprises that go beyond market transactions.

To a large extent, the main problem that JSC "Armada" may face is the problem of developing solutions for the formation of corporate merger strategies, taking into account the criteria for the economic feasibility of their implementation.

Bibliography

1. Artamonov B.V. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /B. V. Artamonov. - M. Ch. 2: Typical strategies and organizational design. – 2006

2. Aristov O.V. Competition and competitiveness: Proc. allowance for part-time training in all special /O.V. Aristov; State. un-t ex., Inst. learning. - M.: Finstatinform, 1999.- 142 p.

3. Akmaeva R.I. Strategic planning and strategic management: [proc. allowance] /R. I. Akmaeva; Astrakh. state tech. un-t. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.- 206, p.

4. Bukanova V.I. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for 08050765, 08050265 /V. I. Bukanova. - Saratov, 2007

5. Bryantseva E.N. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /E. N. Bryantseva. - Omsk, 2007

6. Barinov V.A. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /V. A. Barinov, V. L. Kharchenko. - M.: INFRA-M, 2006.- 283, p.

7. Volkogonova O.D. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /O. D. Volkogonov. - M., 2007

8. Gornostaeva A.N. Strategic management: theory and practice /A. N. Gornostaeva, I. N. Gornostaeva, N. S. Gornostaev; Feder. education agency, Bryan. state tech. un-t. - Bryansk: Publishing House of BSTU, 2006.- 212 p.

9. Glumakov V.N. Strategic management: workshop: [proc. allowance for the specialty 080507 "Management org."] / V. N. Glumakov, M. M. Maksimtsov, N. I. Malyshev. - M.: Vuz. textbook, 2006.- 185, p.

10. Degtyareva N.M. Quality management in a competitive environment /N.M. Degtyareva, E.G. Pipko; State. acad. spheres of life and services. Povolzh. technol. in-t service. - Togliatti: PTIS, 1999.- 128 p.

11. Zaitsev L.G. Strategic management: textbook. module /L. G. Zaitsev. - M., 2004

12. Kuznetsov A.L. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for the specialty 080507, 080501 /A. L. Kuznetsov. - Izhevsk, 2006

13. Kuznetsova I.D. Strategic management: lectures, tasks, control. questions /I. D. Kuznetsova. - Ivanovo, 2006

14. Lapygin Yu.N. Strategic management: textbook. allowance: [specialty "Management org."] / Yu. N. Lapygin. - M.: INFRA-M, 2007.- 234, p.

15. Markova V.D. Strategic management: a course. lectures: [proc. allowance] /V. D. Markova, S. A. Kuznetsova. - M.; Novosibirsk: INFRA-M; Sib. agreement, 2006.- 287 p.

16. Morozova I.A. Methods of strategic management: textbook.-method. allowance /I. A. Morozova. - Volgograd, 2006

17. Panov A.I. Strategic management: [proc. manual for universities in the direction 080100 "Economics and management."] / A. I. Panov, I. O. Korobeinikov, V. A. Panov. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional .. - M .: UNITY-DANA, 2006.- 301, p.

18. Parakhina V.N. Strategic management: [proc. majoring in "Management org."] / V. N. Parakhina, L. S. Maksimenko, S. V. Panasenko. - Ed. 2nd, ster. - M.: KnoRus, 2006.- 494, p.

19. Romanov A.P. Strategic management: textbook. allowance /A. P. Romanov. - Tambov, 2006

20. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for universities. - M., 2007

21. Strategic management of an innovative organization: textbook. manual for the specialty 220601. - M., 2006

22. Shifrin M.B. Strategic management: [proc. manual for universities in the specialty and direction "Management"] / M. B. Shifrin. - St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg: Peter; Peter Press, 2007.- 240 p.

23. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Strategic Management: Textbook. – Ed. "Case". – 2005.- 447 p.

24. Khasanov R. Competition strategies: Analysis and practice /R. Khasanov. - Omsk: OmGTU, 1999.- 118 p.

25. Shcherbakovsky G.Z. Competition and firm stability /G.Z. Shcherbakovsky; St. Petersburg. state University of Economics and Finance. - St. Petersburg: SPbGUEF, 1998.- 157 p.

26. Yablokova S.A. Strategic management: lecture notes /S. A. Yablokova. - M., 2007

Appendix 1

Bukanova V.I. Strategic management: textbook. allowance for 08050765, 08050265 /V. I. Bukanova. - Saratov, 2007

JSC "Armada. Official site.#"#_ftnref24" name="_ftn24" title=""> #"#_ftnref25" name="_ftn25" title=""> http://www.interstock.ru – website of the Interstock company providing trading services on international stock exchanges

The crisis is a “litmus test” for the management of an enterprise: how effectively an enterprise can respond to a negative change in the external environment and “extinguish” it, how much it can change and improve, thereby giving the enterprise a chance to survive in a crisis. Natalya Kovalchuk, CFO, OMZ Mining Equipment and Technologies (OMZ GOiT), Mark Sorokin, CFO, IZ-KARTEX:- CFO, No. 3, 2009

The current global financial crisis is a link in the chain of crises, which are described in extensive economic literature. In the 1990s alone, several crises occurred in the world economy, engulfing entire groups of countries. In 1992-1993 currency crises experienced some countries of the European Union (Great Britain, Italy, Sweden, Norway and Finland). In 1994--1995. the severe crisis that began in Mexico spread to other Latin American countries. In 1997-1998 the global financial crisis began in the countries of Southeast Asia (Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines), then spread to Eastern Europe (Russia and some countries former USSR) and Latin America (Brazil).

The current financial crisis is notable for both depth and scope - it is perhaps the first time since the Great Depression that it has swept the whole world. The “trigger” that triggered the crisis mechanism was problems in the US mortgage lending market. However, the underlying causes of the crisis are more fundamental, including macroeconomic, microeconomic and institutional ones. The leading macroeconomic reason was excess liquidity in the US economy.

Of course, the global crisis has captured Russia as well. In these challenging times, there are different requirements for planning in enterprises than in a stable economy.

This chapter focuses on the following issues:

1. What are the features of planning in a crisis?

2. What are the main approaches to such planning?

3. How does the preparation of the plan deal with the problem of high uncertainty?

4. How is scenario planning used in practice?

5. What useful tips do practitioners have?

Features of planning in a crisis period.

Most managers view the plan as essential tool company management in times of crisis. It is planned indicators that are an element of stability in the chaos of the crisis. Moreover, planning should be not only operational, but also medium-term. Although the concept of medium-term in times of crisis changes somewhat. If during the period of stability a 1-3-year plan was considered medium-term, now it is only for 1 year. Longer ones are meaningless, the degree of uncertainty is too high. You can't plan for less than a year. You can correct and refine plans as part of quarterly planning. And for the month to do only updated reports "On the flow of funds."

In a crisis situation, the role of the annual plan in the management of the company changes. First of all, the plan becomes not so much a set financial indicators how many indications for action depending on the implementation of various risk factors. In this case, the goals should be “reasonably fuzzy”, i.e. set the direction of development and identify the priorities of the company, while leaving freedom in terms of a specific interpretation. This will allow planning to maintain a single direction of movement, leaving the possibility of choosing the paths along which the company will develop. Moreover, it is in times of crisis that the importance of the coordinating function of the plan, which ensures coherence, increases. anti-crisis actions all divisions of the company.

Further, the plan must allow operational decisions to be made in response to current changes in the external environment. Excessive pressure from tight budgets can reduce the effectiveness of middle management decisions by limiting their flexibility in responding to changing market conditions. To do this, the company's management should pay maximum attention to the effective exchange of information between the unit and ensure feedback to all levels of management, sometimes even contrary to information security considerations.

For managers and shareholders, the plan performs a psychoanalytic function - experiencing troubles before they occur. A well-designed plan gives confidence that any difficulties can be overcome.

So, the key features of the approach to planning in a crisis are the reduction of detail, increased flexibility and efficiency. That is, all types of planning should continue to exist, only the emphasis on detailing is changing.” First of all, the degree of detailing of medium-term plans is reduced. The detail of the development of the medium-term plan can be reduced to indicative planning. For example, a good measure of the level of detail required may be a plan that provides exactly the level of detail that allows management to manage the enterprise.

With regard to the flexibility and efficiency of planning, experts highly appreciate such a tool as rolling planning. So, in some companies, a rolling plan is developed for three months and revised approximately 2-3 times a month. It is important to remember that with significant variability and flexibility in medium-term and operational plans, the strategic plans of the company should change only in special occasions. In no case can you change strategic plans at the same speed - a company in times of crisis should be “dynamically stable” more than ever. This means that while the strategic goals and mission remain unchanged, operational plans must fully comply with the realities of the business environment. It is also important to take into account industry specifics. Metallurgy - not retail, here it is impossible to change the direction of activity or assortment at once, the moments of inertia are strong. But what definitely needs to be done is to revise the numerical expression of goals.

Basic approaches to anti-crisis planning.

At first glance, in a crisis situation, the approach of companies to planning is unified. Planning becomes more flexible, less detailed, but at the same time more critical for the company. The set of planning tools used in general also coincides.

However, a closer look reveals that different companies have different planning priorities. For some, the survival of the company is critical, for others - the behavior of macroeconomic factors. For others, almost nothing has changed.

There are 3 approaches to planning in a crisis:

1. from the "living wage"

2. from scenarios for the development of the external environment

3. from targets

Of course, in practice there are many more options. Usually all three approaches are combined in various proportions. But it is important to clearly understand which of the approaches for the company is the main one, and which ones are additional.

1. The approach “from the subsistence level” is quite common in the current period. It is actively used by companies from the industries most affected by the crisis or companies from relatively prosperous industries that entered the crisis with a significant debt burden. Here is how the financial director of RIAT Alexander Selyukov describes the approach to planning: “Weekly, based on an assessment of the external environment (applications for supply and preliminary plans buyers), an adjusted version of the budget is formed and considered. The scenario is pessimistic, but taking into account the need to maintain a positive balance of DC, additional tasks are set to reduce warehouses, demand for remote control, etc.”

Usually, with this approach, the key task is to maintain the liquidity of the company. However, other indicators are also used in practice. For the "survival" of enterprises main task is the minimum required contracting, ensuring the loading of the enterprise at least at the level of 50%, even at the cost of worsening payment terms (for example, 100% deferred payment) of manufactured products.

2. The approach “based on scenarios for the development of the external environment” is critically important for companies whose business is significantly dependent on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and government decisions. First of all, this applies to importers and exporters, monopoly companies. Depending on the combination of significant environmental factors, financial and economic results may differ significantly. The influence of internal factors on them is usually less significant. Of course, scenario planning is very useful for "ordinary" companies. Scenarios are developed on the basis of market analysis, forecasts of the economic situation, government decisions in their industry.

Unlike the previous approach, key indicators, which are taken into account when planning, are indicators such as the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, the investment program of Gazprom, etc. Here is how Yulia Belova, Director of Economics at GazReserve Group of Companies, comments on this issue: “Since our company is one of the leading importers in the North-West region, the main difficulty we face is forecasting the euro and dollar exchange rates. At the moment, based on several possible scenarios for changing exchange rates, a number of plans are being developed. For ourselves, we have adopted: an optimistic option - the dollar and euro exchange rates of 33 and 43 rubles, respectively, a realistic one - 36 and 47 rubles, and a pessimistic one - 40 and 50 rubles.

3. The “target indicators” approach is typical for companies, the impact of the crisis on the business of which is still insignificant. As a rule, when planning, they start from the same indicators as in the pre-crisis period. For most companies, this is problematic. But now the use of target indicators is effective only in the operational period.

Elena Streltsova, CEO The confectionery association "Lubimiy Krai" has no problems with planning in a crisis: "And in normal times, we lived like on a volcano, so we didn't have to change anything, since our planning system is fully consistent with the reality in which many now find themselves." The company produces low-margin gingerbread and cookies and is active with most chains. “The biggest risk for us is non-payments of retail and wholesale customers, and we are following this very closely until we complain,” Elena Streltsova states.

The differences between the three approaches described are well shown in how companies approach balancing liquidity and profitability in their plans. For the first approach, this is “providing liquidity with a minimum acceptable level profitability", for the third approach - "ensuring a given level of profitability with an acceptable level of liquidity".

Practitioners designate different "levels of resistance". Ivan Bagazeev (Sibelektromotor) notes that this year profitability is not a target indicator, “as it turned out as a result of calculations, it’s good.” Natalya Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin (OMZ Mining Business) state that one has to "compromise on profitability (but not below variable costs), but with more favorable payment terms due to this." According to Oleg Fedonin (MMK), “in the short term, the company prioritizes maintaining liquidity. This is due to the task of maintaining an appropriate level working capital in conditions of extremely high cost of borrowing capital. The main criterion in determining the range of manufactured products is the condition for covering variable costs, so that at least the products bring marginal profit. At RIAT, the profitability target is zero (i.e. no loss), including all overheads. While Roman Gusev (Angstrem TM) notes that the annual plan includes an increased level of profitability, taking into account inflation and currency risks.

The most difficult feature of planning in a crisis is a high degree of uncertainty about the future.

From the experience of expert practitioners, a number of rules can be distinguished on how to make a crisis plan more realistic.

1. Calculation based on a pessimistic forecast. If the company is prepared for the worst case scenario, then it will certainly cope with the best. In operational terms, one can consciously use the pessimistic preconditions for the development of various factors and use the maximum of compensatory measures to insure possible disruptions. This avoids a high degree of uncertainty.

2. Usage expert assessments employees are one of the main ones for overcoming the problem of uncertainty, if it is sufficiently formalized in the company. During the sessions anti-crisis planning the method of expert assessments plays an important role and allows in a short time to effectively use the vast experience and knowledge accumulated by top managers of companies. In the current practice of companies, this method is usually not sufficiently involved. It stops that this is not accurate data and forecasts. But for planning in a crisis, accurate ones are not needed.

3. Reliance on the knowledge and experience of the sales service. At the same time, it is important to realistically assess the level of understanding by the company of its market. Unfortunately, we have often encountered a situation where the company's management was sure that the market was well studied, and then it turned out that this knowledge was significantly overestimated and the company did not understand what was happening with sales in a crisis situation. You can talk a lot about market forecasts, trends in the global and domestic economy, but without a professional, responsible sales service, it is almost impossible to get a realistic plan.

4. Prompt response for changes. It is also possible to create a special group of managers in the company, which will monitor the main industry and macroeconomic indicators and broadcast the results for a quick response. Such a change management task force has been established at Fuel Systems. According to Andrey Kazinsky, Economics Director of Brok-Invest-Service, the key point in operational planning is the group work of top managers to coordinate payments and receipts: “In fact, the main business processes in the company are synchronized and “short and FAST” solutions are developed the current situation."

5. Maintain stable purchasing and sales system. For example, the company GazReserve has been actively present on the market for more than 6 years, 70% of all operating contracts are concluded with the company's permanent partners, which are carried out almost without deviations from month to month. The share of free sales and purchases is less than 30% - thus, even if the sales plan in this part is “failed” by a quarter (which, in principle, should not be), this will lead to a failure of the overall sales plan by only 7.5%.

Undoubtedly, scenario planning is a key planning tool in conditions of high uncertainty.

Each company has its own scenario development features. However, the general approach is often the same. We single out 5 main stages of scenario planning in a company:

1. Identification of key environmental factors affecting the company.

It is very important to approach individually the issue of identifying influencing factors for each specific company. Do not get carried away with excessive analysis and forecasting of external macroeconomic factors, which, on the one hand, may not be so significant for the company, and on the other hand, often cannot be accurately predicted even by specialized expert structures.

The number of really influencing factors may be small. For example, only two factors are important for IC RED: the state of the money market (accessibility of borrowing) and the demand for the product (purchase/rent of premises) as a result of the economic situation in the country or region.

2. Formulation of scenarios at a qualitative level.

In scenario forecasting, it is very important to formulate qualitatively different scenarios for the development of events. Often companies limit themselves to drawing up pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios, which is wrong, because. are essentially mathematical variations of the same scenario. In addition, it is often too difficult to make adequate quantitative forecasts, while it is more realistic to determine the main possible trends and directions of development.

A characteristic feature of the current crisis is predominantly pessimistic business forecasts. Often this is justified. However, in practice, a situation arises when no one even tries to look for positive opportunities and non-banal anti-crisis ideas. For example, for an exporting company, the positive impact of the crisis on the company's business (opportunities for export sales growth, etc.) may be stronger than its negative impact (recession in domestic demand, etc.).

However, some companies take into account the opportunities provided by the crisis in their scenarios. For example, the STEP General Contracting Company developed 2 scenarios: a pessimistic one, which was compiled only for existing facilities with an assessment of the solvency of customers, and an optimistic one, which assumes the emergence of new construction orders during 2010. Pavel Mikhailushkin, financial director of the company, comments on this as follows: “They were based on the following factors: a decrease in investment activity in the country and the emergence of new opportunities due to structural changes. In particular, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to the emergence of activity in import-substituting industries, a decrease in the value of Russian assets and expenses denominated in rubles will increase interest foreign companies for investments in Russia.

3. Digitization of scenarios - a forecast of the development of factors and a forecast of the development of markets.

Enlarged digitization of scenarios is needed, because allows you to move on to the development of company plans, which are always in the “figure”. For example, for the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, the key factors included in the scenarios are exchange rates, market conditions, and macroeconomic parameters of the Russian Federation. In the medium term, it is quite difficult to determine the real price level. And here it is more appropriate to determine the ratio of prices for metal and raw materials, since these prices exist in a close correlation.

4. Identification of risks and opportunities for the company in each scenario.

At this stage, the basic prerequisites for formulating response measures are laid.

The company (GazReserve Group of Companies) has an interesting experience of transition from developing scenarios to response measures: “After studying the plans created on the basis of the developed scenarios, it was decided to return to the “vicious” practice of the 90s - setting sales prices in conventional units (equal to a dollar). In this case, the risk is eliminated that, having received (conditionally) 100 rubles for 100 kg a month after shipment (commodity credit for 30 days), we will be able to purchase only 85 kg of the next batch, because the ruble has depreciated by 15% in a month.”

5. Identification critical events and defining milestones for scenario development.

At this stage, two types of indicators are determined:

1) Events of the external environment, the occurrence of which will be an indicator of a change in scenarios

2) Indicators by which the development of scenarios is regularly monitored.

Andrey Kazinsky (Brock-Invest-Service) comments on this issue in the following way: “As part of the planning for 2010, we used two sets of target figures: for the base case (“the bottom” in the industry has been reached) and the very hard option. The second option (option “g”) was worked out in the context of activities in parallel with the creation of budgets for the base option. It is assumed that when the external environment deteriorates, the company simultaneously switches to option “g”, and each manager keeps in mind a set of necessary measures to make this transition.”

It is important to have clear scenarios in the minds of leaders. For this possible options developments of events are repeatedly "driven" in a group of top managers of companies.

Useful tips from expert practitioners

Planning is a job for all top managers of the enterprise, the results of which are communicated to each of the employees.

The adopted planning system and forecasting methods must be consistent and not change ad hoc, that is, with or without reason - they must be consistent.

If the pessimistic option does not allow maintaining a positive balance of DS and fulfilling obligations, then it is necessary to set targets related to motivation (sale of warehouses, activation of measures to demand DS).

Mirror contracts for the implementation of the terms of payment in procurement contracts: (100% deferred payment for the maximum possible time, an argument for buyers: guaranteed loading of the supplier's production is a competitive advantage).

Sequestration fixed costs and their rationing for revenue, i.e. "transfer" them into variable costs.

In times of crisis, for assets, the “zero” budgeting approach is used, when budgets are drawn up not on the basis of the results of the previous period, but on the basis of strategic and operational measures planned for the billing period.

Develop a deliberately excessive number of measures aimed at compensating for "problem gaps" (lack of funds, shortfall in profits). At the same time, you should not slide into a chaotic dispersion of efforts - you can not get any effect at all. The leader in each of these “mini-project events” is important.