home Exchange rates Modern problems of science and education. Enterprise valuation Peculiarities of business valuation in the Russian Federation

Modern problems of science and education. Enterprise valuation Peculiarities of business valuation in the Russian Federation

In the process of development of the Russian market, everything greater value acquires a qualified appraisal of the value of property objects. However, few people know that the profession of appraiser, which appeared in the 19th century, is not new to Russia and has its own history.

With the development of domestic market economy the Russian owner, finally, has the opportunity to dispose of his movable and immovable property at his own discretion, invest his funds in a business or sell it. But almost everyone who is going to exercise their rights as an owner has a lot of questions. One of the main ones is the issue of assessing the value of property, including business.

Just a few years ago, only a limited circle financial analysts and top managers Russian companies have a clear understanding of what “business (company) value” is, how it is defined and how this category can be used to search optimal solutions for company management. However, the integration process Russian economy into the world market system flows not only in the material sphere, but also affects the system of our corporate thinking, as a result of which an increasing number of Russian companies are managed using the cost estimates of the proposed development strategies.

Indeed, it is the value created for shareholders in the long term that is the best criterion for the optimality of management decisions. It is the shareholders, being the residual contenders for the company's cash flows, that, unlike any other circle of stakeholders (managers, employees, society as a whole), need the most complete information to make decisions, they think in long-term categories and must effectively manage all the company's cash flows. .

AT modern conditions any object of ownership can be a source of income and the object of a market transaction, including such an object are the rights of the owner. The business owner has the right to sell it, mortgage it, insure it, bequeath it, i.e. business becomes the object of a transaction, a commodity with all its inherent properties, and, like any commodity, business has utility for the buyer. But this is a special kind of product.

Firstly, it is an investment product, that is, a product in which investments are made with the aim of returning in the future. Costs and revenues are decoupled in the future. Moreover, the size of the expected profit is not known, it has a probabilistic nature, so the investor has to take into account the risk of possible failure.

Secondly, a business is a system, but both the entire system as a whole and its individual subsystems and even elements can be sold. In this case, business elements become the basis for the formation of a different, qualitatively new system, that is, it is no longer a business that becomes a product, but its individual components.

Thirdly, the need for this product depends on the processes that occur both within the product itself and in external environment. Moreover, on the one hand, instability in society leads business to instability, on the other hand, its instability leads to a further increase in instability in society itself. Another feature of business as a commodity follows from this - the need to regulate the sale and purchase.

According to I.V. Guseva, chief appraiser of the LAIR Center of Expertise, a feature of the valuation process is its market nature. This means that the assessment is not limited to taking into account only the costs of creating or acquiring the object being assessed. It necessarily takes into account a combination of market factors: the time factor, the risk factor, market conditions, the level and model of competition, economic features valued object, its market popularity and fame (goodwill), macro- and microeconomic environment of the object.

The whole process of assessing the value of a business (company) directly depends on the reasons that prompted it and the goals pursued by it. Correct Definition goals - one of the most important tasks of the initial stage of work on assessing the value of a business. Without a clear understanding of the client's problems and what function the assessment result will perform, it is impossible to determine either the object of assessment, or the methodology for conducting the study, or the required assessment base. The solution of the problem is also complicated by the fact that the managers or owners of the company are trying to solve different problems within the same work. A fairly typical situation is when the customer intends to use the same appraisal for the revaluation of fixed assets of the enterprise, the appraisal of property contributed as a contribution to authorized capital, and to decide on the restructuring of the company. The appraiser must clearly define and agree with the customer the purpose of the work, determine the basis for the assessment, identify the object of assessment and justify the need to use a particular methodology. Most often in world practice, business (company) valuation is carried out for the following purposes:

· Improving the efficiency of the current management of the company;
· Determining the value of securities for the purpose of buying and selling shares of companies on the stock market;
· Determining the value of the business in case of its purchase and sale in whole or in parts;
· Company restructuring. Conducting a market assessment is expected in the event of liquidation of the company, merger, acquisition or separation of independent enterprises from the holding;
· Development of company development plans. During strategic planning it is possible to assess the future income of the company, the degree of its stability and the value of the image;
· Determination of the creditworthiness of the company and the cost of collateral for lending;
· Insurance, during which there is a need to determine the value of assets in anticipation of losses;
· Taxation; .

The concept of business (company) value has many interpretations. Generally accepted value standards in business valuation are a set of valuation requirements. In the literature on business (company) valuation, there are four main valuation standards: reasonable market value; reasonable cost; investment value; internal (fundamental) value;

All of these standards assume that the assessment is done based on the so-called free, not forced (including administrative interventions), transactions to acquire a business or its shares.

Usually, in world and Russian practice, it is believed that the most objective valuation of a business as such meets the standard of reasonable market value.

Existing approaches to business valuation, as well as various methods for valuing the business of small businesses, have limitations in application related to the specifics of the activity and features of the functioning of these economic entities. The cost approach is generally recognized in assessing the value of an enterprise because of its versatility. The comparative approach in business valuation is based on the principle of substitution, according to which the buyer will not pay for an object more than the cost of a similar object on the market. The capital market method (analog company method) and the transaction method are possible only if there is a diversified financial information by a large number of similar firms selected as analogues. The method of industry coefficients is used directly to assess the business of small businesses and consists in determining the relationship between the sale price and the coefficient obtained on the basis of studying the practice of selling businesses in a particular industry. The income approach is based on the principle of expectation, when the value of the enterprise is reduced to the expected future profit or other benefits that can be obtained from the use of the enterprise's property, taking into account the amount of cash from its resale. For valuation using the income approach, the following two methods are used: direct capitalization of profit (income) and discounting cash flows. The problems of applicability of business valuation methods for small businesses can be reduced to the following: the absence or distortion of the information base; instability of small business; difficulties associated with the choice of analogue enterprises; difficulties associated with the organizational and legal form

entrepreneurship

business valuation

1. Civil Code Russian Federation. Part I: Feder. Law of November 30, 1994 No. 51-FZ (as amended and supplemented).

2. About appraisal activities in the Russian Federation: feder. law of 29.07.1998 No. 135-FZ (as amended on July 11, 2011, with amendments and additions, effective from October 01, 2011).

3. On the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian Federation: Feder. law of 24.07.2007 No. 209-FZ.

4. Requirements for the assessment report: federal standard estimates (FSO No. 3) (approved by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated July 20, 2007 No. 254).

5. Vilensky A.V. Features of Russian small business // Higher School of Economics Economic Journal. - 2004. - No. 2. Access mode: .

6. Kozodaev M., Pylov M. Evaluation and business. - M.: OLMA-PRESS Invest: Institute of Economic Strategies, 2003. - 128 p.

7. Nevsky I.A. modest models. Usage issues existing methods and indicators in evaluating the effectiveness of Russian small enterprises // Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship. - 2007. - No. 8 (1). - S.28-33.

8. Business Valuation: Textbook / Ed. A.G. Gryaznova, M.A. Fedotova. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Finance and statistics, 2006. - 736 p.

9. Business valuation: Tutorial/ Ed. V.E. Esipova, G.A. Makhovikova. - 3rd ed. - St. Petersburg: Piter, 2010. - 512 p.

10. Sokolova N.A., Shindina T.A. Fundamentals of non-linear development of socio-economic systems // Vestnik SibGAU. - 2010. - No. 2. - From 24-29.

The problems of business valuation in the business environment are associated with a high degree of uncertainty of the situation and disunity of interests of the participants in the valuation process. Generally speaking, business valuation is carried out for the following purposes:

determining the value of securities in the event of the sale and purchase of shares of enterprises on the stock market. To make an informed investment decision, it is necessary to evaluate the property of the enterprise and the share of this property attributable to the acquired block of shares, as well as possible future income from the business;
determining the value of the enterprise in the event of its purchase and sale in whole or in parts (specific shares in the capital, shares), the withdrawal of one or more owners from the founders of the enterprise for the calculation of compensation payments, adding own contributions to the authorized capital of the business of its founders for further development business, repurchase of shares from current shareholders, contestation of a court decision on the seizure of the property of the enterprise;
enterprise restructuring (mergers, acquisitions, liquidation, separation from the structure);
determining the creditworthiness of the enterprise and the value of collateral for lending;
insurance;
taxation;
implementation of an investment project for business development;
formation of a plan for priority and long-term development;
improving management efficiency.

The above objectives of the assessment are typical for both large, medium and small businesses. According to Russian legislation, small businesses include those entered in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities consumer cooperatives and commercial organizations (with the exception of state and municipal unitary enterprises), as well as individual entrepreneurs, peasant (farm) enterprises that meet the following conditions:

for legal entities, the total share of participation of the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipalities, foreign legal entities, foreign citizens, public and religious organizations(associations), charitable and other funds in the authorized (share) capital (share fund) of these legal entities should not exceed 25% (except for the assets of joint-stock investment funds and closed-end investment funds); the share of participation of legal entities that are not subjects of small and medium-sized businesses should not exceed 25%;
the average number of employees for the previous calendar year should not exceed the limit values: up to 100 people inclusive for small enterprises; up to 15 people for micro-enterprises;
proceeds from the sale of goods (works, services) excluding VAT for the previous calendar year should not exceed 60 million rubles. for micro-enterprises, 400 million rubles. for small businesses.

The peculiarities of small business are a higher degree of instability in the market due to a high level of risk, increased sensitivity to changes in factors of the internal and external economic environment, lack of capital, long-term return on investment, and, as a result, low investment activity, difficulties in attracting additional financial resources and getting loans. In this regard, the need to improve the efficiency of current management, make informed management decisions, and develop a development strategy is of particular importance. An indicator that characterizes qualitative changes in these areas is the value of the company, and business valuation acts as a tool for determining this value.

Federal valuation standards establish the obligatory use by the appraiser of all possible approaches (profitable, costly, comparative) to the valuation or the rationale for refusing to use any approach. The simultaneous use of different approaches allows you to analyze information about the company from different points of view and get a balanced, most reasonable and most reliable result, but increases labor costs.

In the scientific literature, the advantages and disadvantages of various approaches and methods of assessment have been identified, cases have been identified when the application of certain methods and approaches is most effective or expedient, but the issue of applicability and problems of using business valuation methods in the context of Russian small business has not been given enough attention.

In the case of business valuation of small businesses, certain difficulties arise in the choice and use of methods within each of the approaches, caused by the specifics of the activities of the entities in question, as well as due to the influence of the features of their organizational and legal form.

The cost approach is generally recognized in estimating the value of an enterprise due to its versatility. It is based on the principle of substitution, which means that a reasonable buyer would not pay more for an enterprise than the cost of recreating or acquiring a similar enterprise with the same degree of utility. The basic formula for the cost approach is as follows:

Value = Market Value - Debt

enterprises assets liabilities

When evaluating joint-stock companies, it is necessary to take into account the “Procedure for assessing the value net assets joint-stock companies”, approved by the Order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia and the Federal Commission for the Securities Market of Russia dated January 29, 2003 No. 10n / 03-6 / pz. The information base is the balance sheet.

With this approach, there are difficulties in assessing micro-enterprises of any form of ownership using the simplified taxation system (STS) using this method. This is due to the fact that such entities are exempted from conducting professional accounting. In addition, lists of fixed assets are often missing, accounts payable and receivable are not kept, and other necessary data are missing. The assessment of such an enterprise is based on the customer's data "from words" or "according to information". There is also the problem of "hidden income" not reflected in the financial statements. Thus, we can conclude that the net assets method is inapplicable in the assessment of micro-enterprises located on the simplified tax system, due to the high probability of the information base being unreliable.

The salvage value method within the framework of the cost approach is used when the termination of the enterprise is expected. Its features compared to the net asset method are determined by differences in economic condition enterprises, therefore, when calculating the liquidation value, Goodwill is excluded, the value of other intangible assets due to the absence of buyers may be reduced to zero, the price of assets decreases below the market value, and the costs of the enterprise associated with liquidation are deducted. When using this method, in assessing small businesses, the only, but significant, limitation is seen related to the reliability of the information base of micro-enterprises located on the simplified tax system.

The cost approach is good in that it is advisable to use it if income cannot be accurately forecast, it is necessary to evaluate a new enterprise that does not have profit data, and there is no way to determine prospective cash flows. So, for example, the net assets method can be used when evaluating enterprises with a fundamentally new product or a limited number of competitors in a given market segment.

The comparative approach in business valuation is based on the principle of substitution, according to which the buyer will not pay for an object more than the cost of a similar object on the market. The possibility of applying this approach depends on the presence of an active financial market, the availability of financial information and the availability of services that accumulate price and financial information. Within the framework of the comparative approach, the following main methods are used: the capital market method (analog company method), the transaction method and the industry coefficient method.

The capital market method (analog company method) and the transaction method are possible only if comprehensive financial information is available for a large number of similar firms selected as analogues. The application of these methods becomes more complicated when evaluating closed enterprises, information about analogues of which is difficult to find in open sources. In addition, transactions for the sale of blocks of shares of closed-type companies are usually rare, and prices may not be objective enough, namely, they may not reflect the consensus opinion of investors. The possibility of applying the above methods also depends on the existence of an active financial market, since it is supposed to use data on actually completed transactions. In the case of small enterprises, the number of such transactions may be limited within different industries.

In the case of valuation of closed companies by these methods, some authors suggest using information on comparable public companies, whose shares are listed on the stock market, as a guideline. The criteria for comparability are similar industry, identity with the company being valued in terms of capital structure, absence of the involvement of a peer company in negotiations or in the actual acquisition process, since this usually affects the sale price of a non-controlling stake. Depending on the size of the stake, when deriving the total cost, various adjustments are set (premiums and discounts: discount for non-controlling nature, control premium, discount for insufficient liquidity) that affect its value. The amount of discounts and premiums is determined by the methods of assessment used. Thus, when assessing the value of a non-controlling stake in closed companies, it is proposed to apply a discount for insufficient liquidity of the company's assets in the amount of 30 - 40%.

As for small businesses in the Russian Federation, when assessing by the capital market method and the transaction method, in the absence of information on transactions with similar companies on Russian market we propose to use information on comparable companies on the foreign market, further adjusted for country risk.

The method of industry coefficients is used directly to assess the business of small businesses and consists in determining the relationship between the sale price and the coefficient obtained on the basis of studying the practice of selling a business in a particular industry. This method is widely used in the USA, but is currently not applicable in Russia due to the lack of an appropriate statistical base for constructing coefficients taking into account the specifics of the activity. Russian enterprises. At the moment, the development of the main coefficients that can be used in the assessment of the business of the Russian Federation is underway.

The income approach is based on the principle of expectation, when the value of the enterprise is reduced to the expected future profit or other benefits that can be obtained from the use of the property of the enterprise, taking into account the amount of cash from its resale. For valuation using the income approach, the following two methods are used: direct capitalization of profits (income) and discounted cash flows.

The use of the profit (income) capitalization method in the assessment of microenterprises and small enterprises is limited to cases where the business brings a stable profit, the value of which varies little from year to year or its growth rate is constant. This situation is possible when the enterprise is in the stage of maturity of its life cycle, with a well-established sales market and the absence of plans for management and owners regarding changes in the product or market niche.

When using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, there is a difficulty in calculating the discount rate. Thus, the application of the capital asset valuation model (CAPM) for private companies requires additional adjustments, since the model is based on the analysis of changes in the yield of publicly traded shares. The weighted average cost of capital model in determining an acceptable discount rate can only be used by open joint-stock companies (OJSC). The method is not applicable for companies that do not have enough statistical data to calculate the β-coefficient, as well as those that are unable to find an analogue enterprise whose β-coefficient could be used in the calculations of the company to be assessed.

When determining the length of the forecast period, it is important to remember the risks associated with the resistance of small enterprises to negative factors of the external and internal environment, therefore, in our opinion, the most adequate length of the forecast period for small businesses when assessed by the DCF method is 3 years.

As noted above, due to the fact that some small businesses are on the simplified tax system, it is difficult to evaluate the business of such entities using the cost approach due to the lack of information base. In this regard, the valuation of such a business is possible within the framework of the income approach. However, in this case, the assessment will depend on the specifics of the enterprise. So, for example, if the object of assessment is a small enterprise with a capital-intensive nature of the services provided (shop, hotel), then it is possible to predict cash flows and determine the cost. But, if the business is based on the provision of services such as audit, consulting, mediation, wholesale trade, then when assessing the cost, it is necessary to take into account the features of the formation of the client base and the level of professional training of the manager, his personal contribution to the formation of the company's cash flows. So, small business as a whole is distinguished by mobility, which is expressed in a flexible approach to the client, the company's orientation to the market and to the consumer. Adaptability and flexible approach ensure a constant growth of new consumers of goods and services, as well as guarantee a quick response to changing consumer demands. The leadership of the company's management as an important criterion for determining the true value of a small business implies that usually all management decisions for small business management are taken solely by its leader, and the higher his leadership qualities and professional knowledge, the more efficiently the business works. When such a manager moves to another company, some of the clients automatically follow him. In such a situation, cash flow forecasting will have a low degree of certainty.

A significant limitation of using the income approach in assessing the business of small businesses is that information base accounting data are used for analysis, if it is mandatory for maintenance, often distorting, veiling or even falsifying real cost indicators.

Along with the above features of the application of various methods and approaches in valuation, small businesses, as a rule, practically do not own real fixed capital. The dominant part of them leads economic activity on the basis of rented premises and equipment, which also gives certain specifics to the assessment of the business of these entities.

Thus, the problems of applicability of business valuation methods for small businesses can be reduced to the following:

1. Absence or distortion of the information base.

Small businesses are owned by a fairly narrow circle of people, which is a determining factor in building a business management system and its reporting. In addition, the transition to the simplified tax system also causes this problem. Absence required documents does not allow assessing the real profit of the enterprise, predicting cash flows, assessing its value.

The solution to the problem may be the use of enterprise management reporting in the assessment, but such an assessment, according to Russian law, cannot be fully legitimate and will be in the nature of an expert opinion.

2. Small business instability.

Small business is less resistant to changing factors of the external and internal environment. Thus, a change in the management of a company with all its inherent professional skills can lead to negative changes in the business.

The solution to the problem is the analysis of a shorter period when forecasting cash flows.

3. Difficulties associated with the choice of analogue enterprises.

The choice of analogue enterprises in the assessment of small businesses is complicated by the lack of comprehensive financial information on a large number of identical firms, the inaccessibility of financial information on closed enterprises.

The solution may be the choice of foreign companies using the transaction method and the capital market method, with appropriate amendments.

4. Difficulties associated with the organizational and legal form.

A number of methods are applicable, mainly, only for the valuation of companies open type and cannot be used in its pure form to value closed small enterprises without making appropriate adjustments.

Reviewers:

Shindina T.A., Doctor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship of the South Ural state university, Chelyabinsk.
Kiseleva V.A., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head. Department of Economics of the Firm and Markets, Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk.

Bibliographic link

Akhtyamov M.K., Bobrova A.V., Ilinskaya L.G. ESTIMATION OF THE COST OF BUSINESS FOR SMALL BUSINESS SUBJECTS: GOALS AND PROBLEMS // Contemporary Issues science and education. - 2012. - No. 1.;
URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=5600 (date of access: 03/24/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"

Classical business valuation approaches to Russian enterprises (in Russian conditions) are accompanied by certain difficulties due to objective reasons. These include:

underdevelopment the Russian stock market, as a result of which there is no information on the market quotation of the securities of most enterprises;
informational secrecy Russian stock market - in some cases it is impossible to obtain a public financial statements even open joint-stock companies, which makes it difficult to collect information on peer companies. Thus, the use of a comparative (market) approach to the valuation of an enterprise in our country is limited due to the impossibility of obtaining reliable information for comparison in sufficient volume;
complexity of application net asset method due to the large size of the enterprises themselves; measured in hundreds and thousands of items, the range of products manufactured by Russian industrial enterprises, complicates the search for analogues of the evaluated enterprise not only in our country, but also abroad;
most of the enterprises assessed show a profit close to zero, which is a consequence of income tax evasion or they are generally unprofitable, which is a consequence of the general state of the economy in the country or inefficient management. Thus, it becomes impossible to use cash flow discounting method;
in an inflationary economy, it is most suitable for assessing an enterprise discounted cash flow method, since the percentage of inflation is taken into account in the discount rate. This is possible if inflation rates are predictable and the economy is functioning normally. However, it is very problematic to predict the flow of net income from the activities of an enterprise for several years in advance in an unstable economy.

A distinctive feature of the Russian economy and currently continues to be its instability. The risks faced by entrepreneurs in Russia exceed the average values typical for countries with developed market relations. The situation is aggravated by rather high (by the standards of developed market countries) inflation rates, which lead to the fact that the insignificant information that can be obtained (or that is available) to assess the value of an enterprise reflects the business in "distorted mirrors". Inflationary processes affect the position of the enterprise: the value of the property of the enterprise is underestimated; the accumulation of money for capital investments becomes impossible; dominated by the short-term interests of management and owners.

When evaluating Russian enterprises, it is of particular importance evaluation date. Linking the valuation to time is especially important when, on the one hand, the market is oversaturated with pre-bankruptcy property, and, on the other hand, lacks investment resources. The Russian economy is characterized by an excess of supply of all assets, including real estate, over effective demand. This imbalance in the supply side directly affects the expected value of the property offered for sale. It should be borne in mind that the price of property in a balanced market does not coincide with the price in a market depression. Property owners and investors are interested in exactly the price that will be offered in a particular market, at a particular moment and under specific conditions. Buyers seek to reduce the chance of losing their money and require certain guarantees. Therefore, in assessing the value of an enterprise, it is necessary to take into account all risk factors, including the risk of inflation and bankruptcy.

Pricing and valuation are interrelated and interdependent. The pricing mechanism and the price system formed on its basis are of a general nature, and therefore the pricing that forms flail, and valuation, which results in value, cannot be opposed to each other, but must be considered as related professions that study adjoining categories in the conditions of existing commodity-money relations. However, the features of assessment as a profession should be considered in more detail.

5.1. Modified Income Capitalization Methods

The capital asset method does not take into account the value of tangible and intangible assets. It measures the efficiency of the use of all assets in terms of their ability to generate income. The more justified the values of the cash flow and the capitalization rate, the more weight the assessment obtained by this method will have for the potential buyer. In most cases, in practice, the profit of the last reporting year is chosen as the capitalized value. The capitalization rate R is the rate of expected return. The capitalization rate is usually derived from the discount rate by subtracting the expected CAGR in earnings or cash flow.

The general formulas for determining the value of a business and the capitalization rate are valid under the following assumptions:

The expected income from the business is constant.
The term for obtaining such income is indefinitely long (i.e. tends to infinity).

These assumptions and, accordingly, the basic capitalization model are more suitable for theoretical understanding of the essence of the capital assets method. In the practice of business valuation, special cases of the capitalization method (Gordon, Inwood, Hoskhald, Ring models) are used more, depending on the compliance with the assumptions regarding the uniformity and duration of income received by the enterprise (see: Table 5.1 and formulas 5.1-5.4 below) .

Accepted assumptions			Calculation modelbusiness value
Regarding the uniformity of business income	Regarding the procedure for reinvesting income	Regarding the duration of receipt of income from the business	Calculation modelbusiness value
			base model
Business revenues are distinctly variable, but growth rate is constant	The capital return amount is reinvested at the rate of return on capital	The period of receipt of income is not limited	Gordon Model
Expected business returns are constant in each period	The capital return amount is reinvested at the rate of return on capital		Inwood method
Expected business returns are constant in each period	The capital return amount is reinvested at the risk-free rate	The period of receipt of income is limited	Hoskald method
Income stream is expected to decline systematically	Reimbursement of the principal amount of investments is carried out in equal parts	The period of receipt of income is limited	Ring method

Gordon Model

Hoskald model

Where: R biz. – reasonable market value operating enterprise(business);

D year. - annual profitability of the business by the end of the period;

R - discount rate;

Long-term growth rate of cash flow or earnings;

Other business – average annual business income;

– the future value of each ruble initially invested in the business being valued;

The use of real options can be successfully carried out in the conditions of the Russian economy, since their use does not require a specialized exchange platform where options would be actively traded. To use real options to give flexibility to projects, you need the mutual agreement of the parties to conclude a fixed-term contract. At the same time, each of the parties remains a winner: the one who has a long position (the ability to choose between execution and non-execution of the contract) has the opportunity to adjust his decisions depending on the prevailing conditions for a fee acceptable to him, and the one who has a short position (obligation exercise the option if the other party so desires), receives additional funds for the conclusion of the contract.

Such options provide various kinds of flexibility and, based on this, the following main types of real options are distinguished:

options to exit the project (Abandonment Options);
options for temporary suspension or deferral of project development (Options to Defer Development);
options to expand the project (Options to Expand);
Switching Options.

This classification is not exhaustive and in practice it is possible to use other types of real options. The following is a description of the above types of options.

Option to terminate operations similar to a put option on stocks. If the first period ends unfavorably, then the decision maker has the right to abandon the project. When the present value of the assets falls below their salvage value (sales price), the act of terminating the project is equivalent to exercising the put option. And since the salvage value serves as a floor to the cost of the project, the option to terminate has value. Therefore, a project that can be terminated costs more than a similar project that does not provide this opportunity.

Option to defer development or deferral of investment in tangible assets in a form similar to a call option on stocks. For example, a tenant of undeveloped oil field has the right to “purchase” the developed deposit by paying the development costs. However, the tenant may delay development until oil prices rise. In other words, the management option created by the acquisition of an undeveloped field is a deferral option. The expected development costs can be thought of as the exercise price of a call option. The net income from production is opportunity cost investment delay. If such costs are too high, then the decision maker may prefer to exercise the option, i.e., start developing the field.

ate we are talking on the temporary suspension of the project, then the option will have a form similar to the form of the option to suspend the business, with the only difference that the assets are not sold, but leased, for example.

Option to switch (change activity) the most common type of options. Essentially, a project change option is a portfolio of options consisting of both options to buy (“call”) and to sell (“put”). For example, the ability to resume operations on a currently frozen project is similar to a call option, and to suspend activities (close the enterprise) in adverse circumstances- put option. The cost of resuming or stopping can be thought of as the strike price of a call or put option. A project that allows you to go from active to completely stop it (or transfer operations from one enterprise to another, etc.) costs more than the same project, but does not have such flexibility. Flexible production system, capable of producing two products, serves good example this type of option.

The literature describes various ways determining the cost of real options and assessing their impact on the cost of projects. In the work of S. V. Valdaitsev, a method for comparing indicators of the net present value of the project is proposed (NPV) without providing for a real option in it and for the case when such an option is planned. The difference is understood as a measure of the effectiveness of a real option. It simultaneously serves as a measure of increasing the value of the company as a result of the use of a real option, since it is competitive advantage companies. At the same time, the NPV indicator is a weighted average of three indicators - NPV project expected in cases where optimistic (NPV opt), the most probable (NPV n.v.) and pessimistic (NPV dog) project implementation scenarios.

The NPV opt indicator (for the option of using a real option) is calculated as a weighted average (according to the probabilities of the same scenarios) value, but for the case of a pessimistic project scenario, instead of the NPV pes indicator, the NPV opt. pes indicator is taken into account, which reflects:

cash flow dp t pes, which will appear on the project by the time the real option is exercised;
expenses C opt(price of a real option) to purchase the specified option;
exercise price of a real option, i.e. gross income or revenue In opt from its performance.

Indicators NPV wholesale and NPV n.v. are simply reduced by the cost of the option that will not be exercised.

Thus:

The formulas use the risk-free rate R, since the risks of the project have already been taken into account by the scenario method, and the exercise of the option is considered reliable 3 .

This method has the following disadvantage: the price of the option (the value of the option contract) is used in the calculations. It is logical to assume that it makes sense to acquire such a contract only if the benefit from its acquisition exceeds the costs of its acquisition. The measure of efficiency, as mentioned above, is determined by NPV indicators for two options - with and without an option. And it (a measure of efficiency), in turn, cannot be calculated without knowing the option price. Thus, a "vicious circle" is obtained and the calculations are purely theoretical.

Also, other methods for determining the value of a real option are proposed in the literature, for example, based on a binomial model (two options for the development of market conditions are considered - favorable and unfavorable). Consider a project deferral option that allows management to wait a year and then, under favorable circumstances, carry out the project, and under unfavorable circumstances, simply lose this opportunity when the option expires. Let's say the risk-free interest rate is 8%. The decision tree for this project describes it as follows.

Fig.5. Decision tree with defer option

It depicts three options for the development of events: the immediate implementation of the project, the abandonment of it and the delay. How should we value the option that gives us the right to defer? The valuation process proceeds by creating a portfolio of directly observable securities, whose prices, as well as rates of return, are known, and the payment flows for which exactly reproduce the payment flows inherent in our "tree" of decisions. Since the market prices of securities are known to us, we can determine the value of the deferral option. The equivalent portfolio will consist of m stocks with a value S equal to, say, $28, and debt obligations worth B $. with a risk-free interest rate R f . We can learn the number m and the cost B from two equations with two unknowns, which also reflect the nature of the change in the economic situation. The coefficients d and u characterize the unfavorable and unfavorable state of the economy, respectively, in which the share price will change and amount to uS =50 dollars, dS =20 dollars.

The equations look like this:

m (uS) - (1+ R f)*B = $72.56– for a favorable state of the economy,

m (dS) – (1+ R f)*B = $0- for the unfavorable state of the economy.

Solving these equations, we get that B = 44.79 dollars, and m = 2.24 shares. Now it is necessary to determine the value of the equivalent portfolio, which corresponds to the value of the deferral option:

MS - B \u003d 2.42 * 28 dollars. - 44.79 dollars. = $22.97

Thus, if the option is worth less than $22.97. it should be purchased. This model gives an answer to the question up to what point the acquisition of a real option is profitable, which distinguishes it from the previous model. The value of efficiency is determined, as in the previous model, by the difference between different NPV values. Here, this amount will be $28.97 = $22.97 - (-6), where (-6) is the NPV of the project without purchasing the deferral option.

This example was considered in the work of T. Copeland and T. Koller, but a similar approach is also considered in the work of V. A. Vorontsovsky “Risk Management”, where this model is used to determine the value of a land plot.

It should also be pointed out that some sources of literature indicate certain disadvantages of using real options on the asset side.

The full application of the real options methodology aims to increase the organizational flexibility of the company, which implies a fundamental revision of business approaches. The use of real options actually changes the process of forming a company's strategy. Flexibility is undoubtedly an advantage when implementing one or more investment projects. But “when the whole strategy of a company is based on the principle of flexibility, the probability of unsuccessful implementation of such a strategy can be high” 4 .

The formation of a strategy in the form of a portfolio of real options can first of all lead to a weakening of the "commitment" of the staff. The success of a new idea in a company depends very much on the motivation of the main “players”. Having a leader who is fully committed to the project is often one of the critical factors in the successful completion of a project. Any project that contains real options that allow for the postponement of vital decisions for the project will imply a weakened "commitment" on the part of key participants. When using the real options technique, the company states that it will not make a final decision on the project at this time, but will keep the project in a state of readiness for a certain time, which is necessary to clarify the situation in the market. The staff who work on such a project will not be fully committed to a cause whose future is yet to be determined. Thus, one of the consequences of the use of real options in practice can be a weakening of the company's strategic focus, and the company's management needs to clearly understand under what conditions the application of the real options technique can increase the total value of the company.

5.4. Application of valuation methods in Russian conditions

In modern Russia, the market for independent appraisal services began to actively form in the early 1990s. XX century, with the revival of the institution of private property. The first few years before the adoption of the law "On appraisal activities in the Russian Federation" appraisers worked, as they say, who is in what much. There was no regulatory framework for the assessment, there were no approved standards, no clear requirements for the content of the report and the methods used. The situation with the assessment of the market value was bad. What could be said about the value of, for example, a business, when the ruble exchange rate changed several times a day, and the entrepreneur had no idea what he would do next week. At first, no one required special education from the appraiser. Any citizen who completed a one-two-week course and received a certificate could do the assessment. Although this was not required. Many newly minted appraisers, taking advantage of the uncertainty of the situation, issued brief references instead of reports, and the methods for determining the value were very far from scientific.

Even at that time, competent and conscientious specialists worked in the appraisal, who perceived the appraisal not as a way to make money quickly, but as a new promising profession. Almost all of them are in business today. By the second half of the 1990s. in the appraisal market there were, according to our estimates, about three to four thousand small appraisal firms, and by the end of 2000, according to Russian Society appraisers, the number of firms increased to 15 thousand. Public appraisal organizations, in the absence of a regulatory framework, tried to somehow influence the quality of appraisal services, but the documents they adopted were purely advisory in nature, and few people followed them.

On July 29, 1998, the Federal Law “On Valuation Activities in the Russian Federation” was adopted, introducing the basic concepts of valuation activities, the grounds and conditions for the implementation and regulation of valuation activities.

True, by this time a significant part of the country's most valuable assets was already in the hands of private owners. The volume of appraisal work fell in 1998 to a critical level. The reason for this was the abolition of mandatory revaluation, as well as the decline in market activity on the eve of the famous August crisis. The crisis brought new round redistribution of property, as a result of which the number of orders began to grow slowly but steadily. At the same time, the volume of valuation work for the purpose of revaluation of fixed assets remained at a low level, but the number of orders for other types of valuation increased.

Have been published:

Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of July 6, 2001 No. 519 “On Approval of Valuation Standards”, which introduced valuation standards that are mandatory for use by valuation entities,
Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of June 7, 2002 No. 395 “On Licensing Valuation Activities”, which introduced a provision on licensing valuation activities.

According to the Decree "On Approval of Valuation Standards", the appraiser:

1. Collects and processes:

title documents, information about the encumbrance of the object of assessment with the rights of other persons;
accounting and reporting data related to the object of assessment;
information on the technical and operational characteristics of the object of assessment;
information necessary to establish quantitative and quality characteristics valuation object in order to determine its value, as well as other information related to the valuation object.

2. Identifies and analyzes the market to which the object of assessment belongs, its history, current conditions and trends, as well as analogues of the object of assessment, and justifies their choice.

3. Implements necessary calculations of one or another type of value of the appraised object, taking into account the obtained quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the appraised object, the results of the analysis of the market to which the appraised object belongs, as well as circumstances that reduce the likelihood of receiving income from the appraised object in the future (risks), and other information.

4. When conducting an assessment, it is obliged to use (or justify the refusal to use) the cost, comparative and income approaches to assessment.

5. The right to independently determine, within the framework of each of the assessment approaches, specific assessment methods.

The appraiser must adhere to the following steps when conducting an appraisal:

conclusion of an appraisal agreement with the customer;
establishment of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the object of assessment;
analysis of the market to which the object of assessment belongs;
selection of the method (methods) of assessment within each of the approaches to assessment and the implementation of the necessary calculations;
summarizing the results obtained within the framework of each of the approaches to the assessment, and determining the final value of the value of the object of assessment;
preparation and transfer to the customer of the assessment report.

The appraiser, on the basis of the results obtained within the framework of each of the approaches to the assessment, determines the final value of the value of the appraisal object. The final value of the value of the appraisal object indicated in the appraisal report drawn up in accordance with the procedure and on the basis of the requirements established by the Federal Law "On Appraisal Activities in the Russian Federation" must be expressed in rubles as a single value, unless otherwise provided in the appraisal agreement. .

The Decree "On Licensing Valuation Activities" sets out the requirements and conditions for the implementation of valuation activities:

Compliance by the licensee with the requirements of legislative and other regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation on issues of valuation activities.
Availability in the state legal entity at least one employee for whom this legal entity is the main place of work, having the appropriate qualification in the field of valuation activities, obtained in accordance with the professional qualifications agreed with the authorized Government of the Russian Federation body for monitoring the implementation of valuation activities in the Russian Federation educational programs and supported by a certificate of education.
Availability individual entrepreneur the relevant qualification in the field of appraisal activities, obtained in accordance with professional educational programs agreed with the authorized government of the Russian Federation body for monitoring the implementation of appraisal activities in the Russian Federation and confirmed by a document on education.
Raising at least 1 time in 3 years qualifications in the field of appraisal activities of an employee (employees) of a legal entity and an individual entrepreneur.
Civil liability insurance of the licensee by concluding an insurance contract under specific type appraisal activities (depending on the appraisal object) or under a specific appraisal agreement for the appraisal object.
Providing, at the request of the licensing authority, documents and information necessary to monitor compliance with license requirements and conditions.

The license is issued for 5 years. The term of the license may be extended at the request of the licensee. Renewal of the license is carried out in the manner established for reissuing a license. Re-issuance of a license is carried out within 10 days from the date of receipt by the licensing authority of the relevant application.

As a result of these changes, there was a very significant reduction in the number of appraisers, mainly due to those who did not consider appraisal a priority activity (auditors, consultants, realtors, etc.). Appraisal firms that remained on the market united and consolidated, acquired licensed specialists in their staff and sent the remaining employees to receive specialized education. And most importantly, there was a desire to improve the quality of appraisal services. Public appraisal organizations try to track the facts of unfair performance by appraisers of work under the contract.

Many of them were founded in 1993& #8212; 1999, which means they have stood the test of time. Nevertheless, young firms appear (Intelis-Otsenka, founded in January 2005), which seek to conquer the business valuation market.

Either way, there are complexities involved in determining the value of a business from a regulatory perspective, such as:

approaches and methods used in business valuation in the Western market, which have proven themselves, cannot always be used in Russia without adequate adaptation;
none of the Russian self-regulatory organizations in the Russian Federation does not have professional standards business valuation. This is especially strange due to the presence of national specifics due to the fact that the objects of business valuation in our country and abroad have significant differences.

It is worth noting that the ability to apply all the above methods is not enough, you need to know where and which methods will give the most reliable and fastest results. In addition, the valuation methods used in world practice make it possible to determine the market value fairly quickly and reliably. Among them, I would like to single out the most universal and effective - this is a comparative method (the method of an analogue company). With its help, knowing the value of similar property, the appraiser can make a preliminary assessment within a short period of time, which can be beneficial for both parties. It is used very widely in most of the developed countries of the world. However, Russia is still very young in terms of market relations. In this regard, the use of this method in Russia is limited by the available information about analogues. It is necessary to weed out analogue companies due to their characteristics (significant fluctuations in the market value of shares, seasonal dependencies), to be able to average and predict them in a certain way.

As for the income approach, this is the most subjective method, since it is based on the prediction of the medium-term perspective of cash flows, which depend, for example, on the level of inflation, changes in legislation, etc. Also, the method for calculating the discount rate is subjective, and professional appraisers do not consensus on what discount rate should be applied in a particular case. In principle, the discount rate is determined by the level of return that an investor can expect in the future, given certain risks. Accordingly, the calculation of the value of the income approach is extremely sensitive to changes in many factors independent of the appraiser, due to which it is impossible to reasonably predict the future development of the situation. Therefore, it is difficult for the appraiser to achieve accurate results in the appraisal.

Most appraisal companies rarely apply the cost approach to business valuation due to the huge labor intensity and often low cost of the contracts offered. Ignoring the cost approach leads to a distortion of the cost, but it gives a direct idea of the potential of production capacities in the enterprise and is less subjective than other methods. In Russian conditions, the method is not ideal, because there are large distortions in the values of assets and liabilities in accounting.

Let's summarize the shortcomings of business valuation methods (in order to offer something new, you should figure out what shortcomings are found when using the above valuation methods):

Difficulty in finding information and cumbersome calculation. Using business valuation on a regular basis should be as simple as possible, and the result should be clear.
The presence of a large number of adjustments related to the opacity of financial statements. Management should use data to evaluate management accounting, which must be adapted for evaluation.
Complexity long term planning makes it difficult to use income valuation methods. Mostly a retrospective of actual data for past periods is used. In this regard, it is necessary to develop a methodology for determining the growth rate of cash flows or make forecasts for up to five years.
Accounting valuation of assets leads to an underestimation of the value of net assets. A market revaluation of all fixed assets and, if required, intangible assets is required.
Lack of an adequate basis for comparison with analogues. Tasks and requirements for business valuation should become the basis for solving the following tasks:
1. Development of plans and strategies for the development of the enterprise;
2. Evaluation of management effectiveness;
3. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the company's activities;
4. Determining the real value of one share.

The business valuation must meet the following requirements:

- simplicity;

- visibility;

- validity;

- periodicity;

- informative.

5.5. Russian specifics, peculiarities of the assessment of Russian companies

In understanding and applying the value of an enterprise in Russia, its own characteristics stand out. Russian specificity is primarily determined by the following points:

1. Many Russian companies, even though formally open joint-stock companies, are not yet interested in having their shares actually placed on the stock market. This is due both to the fact that they prefer to be quite informationally closed, and to the fact that for their development they still have enough sources of self-financing of investments in combination with the use of loans from affiliated banks.

Under these conditions, assessing the effectiveness of management based on changes in the observed or predicted market price of the shares of such companies is practically impossible. At the same time, when implementing sufficiently large investment projects at their initial stages, managers feel the need to report to shareholders in such a way as to show them that a temporary decrease in the company's profits (until the mentioned projects had time to give returns, requiring large expenditures) is not only natural, but and justified. The only way for managers to demonstrate their effectiveness during such periods may just be an attempt to present their activities to shareholders in terms of the concept of enterprise value management - proving to shareholders that as a result successful implementation investment projects carried out at the enterprise, the “true” market value of the enterprise has already grown and continues to grow. This is often an effective method to convince shareholders to agree that the enterprise will not generate profits for some time (due to the continuation of the stages of large capital investments in investment projects), rather than to prove what specific expected profits the enterprise will be able to provide in the future.

At the same time, the calculation is made that at least some of the major shareholders will support the managers, because as a backup option for themselves, they can always plan to exit the enterprise, on their own - not through the stock market - finding another strategic investor who is ready to purchase a package from them. shares. Of course, for them then the argument about the increase in the possible contractual price (on the basis of the business valuation presented by managers) for the block of shares being sold will be very effective.

What has been noted becomes even more relevant if one considers that Russia today is still characterized by a frequent change of strategic investors (large shareholders) of enterprises due to the ongoing “redistribution of property”. However, the same effect arises as a result of intensive mergers in the process of actively building up new industrial groups that ensure the production of products that have not yet been produced in Russia, but are being developed at the initiative of foreign capital coming into the country.

2. Due to the lack of a developed stock market in Russia (sufficiently large, with low transaction costs, reliable and fast mechanisms for transferring ownership of shares in the process of making changes to the relevant shareholder registers), a specific market for the purchase and sale of property complexes is rapidly developing in the country. In light of this, a fairly real alternative to selling large blocks of shares as a way to exit the enterprise is the separation of local businesses from the developed business (for the production and / or marketing of part of the products) and the sale of all assets of the spun-off enterprise.

Management of the value of the enterprise then turns into management of the value not of the company's shares, but of its property complex, understood as the totality of all tangible and intangible assets that ensure the release and marketing of the relevant products.

3. It is no secret to anyone that in Russia bankruptcy procedures often also serve the market for the purchase and sale of property complexes - with the difference that the form of "purchase and sale" in this case turns out to be specific: through the purchase of a property complex within, as a rule, the procedure of bankruptcy proceedings, which is forcibly introduced at the insistence of creditors at a bankrupt enterprise.

It is clear that in this case the property complex will be sold at a reduced price, at a sort of "liquidation value" - although in reality no one was going to "disassemble" the valuable property complex and subsequently sell it in parts; it will be exploited.

In anticipation of such situations, management of the value of an operating enterprise by its managers, in fact, is carried out in the interests of any creditor planning to purchase the property complex of a bankrupt at a reduced price as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. The maximization of utility for him will be achieved precisely because he will be able to acquire a value-maximized business at a lower price.

Of course, the scheme briefly described here is close to criminal, since it assumes that managers who maximize the value of the company's property complex on the eve of its bankruptcy in order to sell it in reality in the near future at a much lower price as part of the bankruptcy proceedings are not acting in the interests of the owners of the company, but in the interests of third parties. In addition, in this scheme, as a rule, the so-called fictitious bankruptcy will be applied, under which the company will be “substituted”, using, for example, the so-called simplified bankruptcy procedure.

4. Due to the significant information secrecy of even those Russian companies whose shares are liquid, in Russia, serious underestimation or overestimation of these companies by the stock market is very often typical. Consequently, it is necessary to focus the management of the value of such enterprises not so much on the current or forecast market price of their shares, but on maximizing their estimated reasonable market value, at which, if desired, major shareholders will be able to sell their shares, revealing the inside information of the company to potential buyers.

Therefore, simpler, albeit approximate, but more reliably verifiable methods are needed to assess at least the direction of changes in the value of an enterprise that occur as a result of the actions of managers - especially as a result of their decisions on capital-intensive investment projects, as well as decisions during the management of these projects.

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Valdaytsev S.V. Enterprise value management: common features and Russian specifics / Finansovyi Mir. - St. Petersburg: Publishing House of St. Petersburg. un-ta, 2002.
Gerasimov N. Application of the Olsen model in company valuation.
Kozlov K. Salun V. How much does a closed company cost? // Stocks and bods market. - 1999. - No. 16.
Kozyr Yu. Some aspects of the application of the real options model.