Trade in farm products uses all the main consumer trends: buy Russian, buy healthy, save time on purchases. Shops selling farm produce are opening all over the country, and the quality of the goods varies everywhere. What kind of business based on Russian eco-products has a future?

The fashion for natural products without additives is sweeping major Russian cities. Some people look for healthy meat, milk and vegetables in online stores, others organize food appropriations in the surrounding villages several times a month. The first city stores of farm products appeared in Moscow about 10 years ago, but we can only talk about any successful development of the segment in relation to Moscow and St. Petersburg. What is this business, what consumer sentiment is it based on, what are the prospects. He'll try to figure it out.

Fashion or trend: boom for healthy

Is the demand for natural things so great? According to Nielsen data, Russians are primarily inclined to buy at home: meat (81%), milk (80%), vegetables (75%) and fruits (67%). Patriotism is explained only by the favorable price, but also by the desire to purchase a natural product with a short shelf life.

As a factor motivating them to buy domestic rather than global production, Russians indicate:

• 56% - favorable price;
• 43% - “already took it, liked it”;
• 32% - safer ingredients and manufacturing process.

According to the Romir research holding, despite the crisis, Russians pay attention to the composition and shelf life of products, preferring environmentally friendly and fresh goods without GMOs. According to a 2015 TNS study, 67% of Russians agree to buy more expensive food products, provided that they are environmentally friendly.

Concerns about health in general and healthy eating in particular force people to look for locally produced products on store shelves: many are under the illusion that Russian food production technologies lag behind world ones, so preservatives and nitrates are not used.

Yandex statistics also prove the increasing interest of Russians in high-quality healthy food. Over the 10 months of 2015, compared to the same period in 2014, the number of requests increased:

• “natural products” - by 78%;
• “fresh products” - 3 times.

There is a demand for healthy and natural products of domestic production and it is growing. Traditional chains and stores practically leave it unanswered.

Organic food market: in Russia and the world

The prospects for farmers and their products are significant. However, today consumers and producers exist in parallel universes: it is difficult for farm products to reach the shelves retail chains due to the requirements for volumes, selling prices, packaging, and the majority of buyers come here to shop.

In general, Russians are not alone in their desire to embrace natural food. Organic products without chemicals and artificial additives are a global trend. To date, 84 countries around the world have adopted laws on organic farming. The EU biofood market is growing by 15-20% annually.

Leaders in organic markets in the world:

• USA - $29 billion;
• France - $9.2 billion;
• Germany - $5.2 billion.

What is in Russia? In our country, trade in natural products is in its infancy, so it has not yet come into the view of official statistics. According to information from the Union of Organic Farming (SOZ), in 2013 the volume domestic market certified organic products amounted to $148 million - less than 0.2% of the entire food market. At the same time, 90% of eco-products are imported.

There is uncertainty with the concept of “farm product” in Russia today: the regulatory framework for organic agriculture is just beginning to take shape.

Table 1. Documents regulating the sphere of organic agricultural production in the Russian Federation

Approved	At the discussion or development stage
GOST R 56104-2014 “Organic food products. Terms and definitions" approved. by order of Rosstandart No. 1068-st dated 09.10.14. GOST R 56508-2015 “Organic products. Rules for production, storage, transportation" approved. by order of Rosstandart No. 844-st dated June 30, 2015.	National standard “Production of organic products. Rules for voluntary certification." National standard “Guidelines for the production, processing, labeling and marking of organic food products (except for sections related to livestock products). CAC/GL 32-1999". Draft law “On the production of organic products”.

Currently in Russia an organic food product is called:

• grown in conditions that improve the ecosystem, preserve soil fertility, and protect human health;
• processed by methods biological/physical/mechanical in nature;
• obtained without the use of pesticides, chemicals. fertilizers, growth stimulants, antibiotics, hormonal/veterinary drugs, GMOs, not exposed to ionizing radiation.

The formation of a full-fledged regulatory environment in the field of production, determination of composition, labeling and certification of organics will help clear the market of pseudo-farm traders and identify real natural products. In addition, as a result of the regulation of the legal field, POP experts expect the market to increase to $300 million.

Farmer trade models

Today in Russia, both farmers themselves and intermediaries are involved in the sale of natural products. Farmers use several ways: open specialty stores in production or online stores, sell to neighbors and by word of mouth, arrange supplies to health food stores and restaurants.

There are three models of farm stores:

• Internet projects;
• traditional offline stores;
• projects using both sales channels: online and offline.

Features of traditional farm shops:

• Format.“At home” is most often used - a modest assortment is placed in a small area. Sometimes a store concentrates on only one type of product, such as dairy or meat products. By a small number commodity items Easier to monitor quality.
• Assortment and its structure. Wide or narrow, large proportion of perishable products, up to 70%. For comparison: in large supermarkets the share of products with a short shelf life is 7-15%. Outlets that sell exclusively local farm products usually offer a seasonal selection.
• Markup and prices. Prices are higher than in supermarkets. Abroad, products labeled “organic” are 20-30% more expensive than their analogues. In Russia, the range in prices is greater: the markup on healthy products can be 50, 100 and 200%. The market is not developed, the culture of healthy food consumption is in its infancy - this is how a creative attitude to prices is born. In some cases, high margins are set deliberately high in order to support farm production.
• Selection of manufacturers, product examination. Real farm stores set high standards for product quality and strictly select suppliers. This is done by technologists or specialists from the internal examination department, and at the stage of concluding a contract they check raw materials and production processes, then the product undergoes monthly laboratory examination.
• Service. Available individual order products and other features.

A few words about network projects. Today in Russia there is physically little farms, so they simply cannot cope with large volumes of supplies. Some networks are forced, in addition to farmers, to cooperate with small industrial producers. Calling such projects farm projects is hardly true. But if before installation on the shelf the goods undergo quality and naturalness checks, then we're talking about about health food stores.

Regarding services for the delivery of fresh and organic products. The intensity of Internet use is heterogeneous across Russian regions. The share of active users is growing, but so far only residents of large cities are ready to place online grocery orders. However, the future lies with specialized online stores of organic products, which will satisfy the need for healthy food and allow consumers to save time on shopping trips.

Successful farming projects

There are many players in the natural food trade today. Entrepreneurial activity in this area is mainly concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the capital, for example, the number of stores selling farm products amounts to hundreds (including online trading). How is business organized in three famous Russian projects?

“Izbenka” and “VkusVill”: a chain of eco-food stores

Andrey Krivenko’s chain of traditional healthy food stores is developing simultaneously in two directions:

• “Izbenki” are small establishments (15-20 sq. m) with farm dairy products with short term suitability. Assortment - up to 70 items.
• “VkusVills” - stores with an area of ​​60-120 sq. m with an assortment of 700-800 product items: meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, bread, juices, sweets, etc.

Is all food truly from farms? No, but the network doesn’t hide it. Of the 200 suppliers that VkusVill works with, 10-15% are large industrial farms, the remaining 85-90% are small industrial producers and farmers.

How the business is organized:

• the mission of the network is to think about the buyer first;
• cooperation with trusted suppliers, 3-4 for each type of product;
• a small assortment (600 items per 100 sq. m), 70% of which are “perishable”;
• absence own production;
• strict quality control (collection of customer reviews, laboratory examinations, production audit);
• sale of goods under private labels (private brands);
• low markup level for the segment - 55-56%;
• average bill - 500 rub.

The network’s indicators prove its effectiveness: the number of “Izbenok” opened in Moscow is 300, “VkusVillov” is 130, the network’s revenue in 2015 increased by 40% compared to the previous year.

Moscowfresh: online store of market and farm products

Moscowfresh positions itself as an express delivery service for fresh produce. The founder of the company is Lev Volozh. The assortment includes farm dairy and meat products, poultry, quality goods Moscow markets, imported chilled fish, vegetables/fruits, as well as baked goods, tea, coffee, and sweets.

How the business is organized:

• prices are higher than in supermarkets, but lower than those of competitors;
• minimum order - 1,900 rubles;
• Delivery within the Moscow Ring Road costs 290 rubles. and takes 2 hours (urgent - 90 minutes);
• assortment - premium quality products from trusted suppliers (Moscowfresh confirms the quality with certificates from city markets, and also guarantees its own control);
• Products you don't like can be returned or replaced.

LavkaLavka: both for the buyer and for the farmer

The most recognizable farming brand in Russia is LavkaLavka. The project arose in 2009 in the form of an account on LiveJournal, when not a single farm online store existed yet. In the first year of operation, the turnover of “Lavka” amounted to 900 thousand rubles, in 2014 - 250 million. The company was founded by Boris Akimov, a former artist and programmer, now a real farmer and ideologist of a return to organic farming.

Today LavkaLavka is:

• 5 Moscow offline farm stores and an online store with a developed network of pick-up points;
• restaurant "Mark and Lev";
• farmers market in Mega Khimki;
• a farming cooperative whose goal is nothing less than the revival Agriculture and lost gastronomic Russian traditions.

LavkaLavka is a farmers' association and a powerful communication channel between small agricultural producers and city residents. Suppliers of “Lavka” are members of the cooperative - small and medium-sized farms that have been certified according to the Internal Standard LavkaLavka.Expertise. Large agricultural enterprises are closed to the “Lavka”.

Prices for organic products here are high even by Moscow standards. However, the cooperative does not pay dividends, investing all profits in the development of the project. Therefore, purchasing goods at premium prices is a conscious choice of Lavka customers, and a kind of investment in responsible Russian agricultural producers. LavkaLavka regularly launches crowdinvesting (also known as crowdfunding), the money collected goes to the development of farms.

Project idea:

• the consumer is 100% confident in the quality of Lavka products;
• a certified farmer does not compete with resellers, receiving a stable distribution channel and payment adequate for the labor invested.

Unlike Moscowfresh, “Lavka” considers only those products that are produced in compliance with all organic farming standards to be farm products (healthy and useful) and does not take the word of suppliers.

As an afterword

Behind the scenes are dozens of regional and metropolitan farming projects, responsible producers and/or sellers who provide citizens with safe and healthy food. A natural food store is both a popular business and socially significant project. Russia’s turn towards organic farming, and the population towards natural food, is a matter of the near future. Therefore, farming, production and sale of healthy products is a long-term trend. Join us.

Health & Wellness as a market driver

The global market for health products, including functional, hypoallergenic, organic, etc., will reach $1 trillion (€770 million) in 2017, according to a study by Euromonitor International. This is a reflection of the global consumer trend - promoting health and preventing diseases by adjusting the diet.

According to Eve Hudson, head of health product research and wellness, today about 30% of the world's food companies invest in healthy products. Health food industry growth rate outpaces development Food Industry.

Euromonitor forecasts that the health and wellness (H&W) drinks segment in the global market will grow at 7.5% per annum until 2016, while the regular drinks segment will grow at 6.75% per annum. The healthy drinks segment will reach almost $400 billion (€308 billion), compared with approximately $500 billion (€385 billion) for conventional drinks. A similar trend is typical for the market of packaged food products.

According to a study by Leatherhead Food International, Japan traditionally holds 39.2% of the global functional foods market, the US share is 31.1%, and five European countries (UK, Spain, Italy, France and Germany) - 28.1%.
The UK has become the largest European market for functional foods, overtaking France. According to Leatherhead Food International, the European five market will grow by 27.6% by 2015: from $5.058 billion in 2009 to $6.454 billion in 2015.

Dairy and bakery products dominate the global functional foods market, accounting for a combined 72.9%. In 2009, the global market for functional dairy products amounted to $8.702 billion, and beverages - $2.825 billion (excluding mood and energy drinks).

This is not surprising, because dairy products have increased nutritional value and preventive properties to normalize the activity of the gastrointestinal tract due to the presence of vitamins A, B1, B2, B6, B11, D, E, microelements, biologically active fibers, iodized protein, biologically active additives (vetoron), fluorine, mesophilic lactic acid organisms, starter cultures based on pure cultures of propionic acid bacteria, calcium, bifido-, lacto- and acidophilic bacteria.

Experts from Leatherhead note that the European market is dominated by functional yoghurts and dairy drinks. Particularly popular are Danone Activia, drinking and regular Actimel yoghurts, spreads, Benecol products, Danone Danacol and So Good soy milk.

The leaders of the Russian market in this segment are considered by inFOLIO Research Group analysts to be Danone (TM Danone, Danissimo, Activia, Actimel, Vitalinea), Wimm-Bill-Dann (TM Biomax, Bioyogurt), Ehrmann (TM “Biogurt”, “Ermigurt”), as well as LLC “SVETA” (TM “Bifirut”) and Cherkizovsky Dairy Plant (TM “Bifilife”).

The leading importers of functional food products to Russia at the end of 2011 are Valio LLC - 50%, Danone Industry LLC - 9%, Mistral Trading LLC - 8%, EuroDis Vostok LLC - 5% and Vneshnetorovaya CJSC Foodline company - 5%.

Fashion for multifunctionality

Many Russians began to understand that by changing their diet, they can improve their health and reduce the risk of developing diseases. Consumers are willing to pay more for products that help solve health problems or provide good alternatives to unhealthy foods. IN last years This trend is supported by growing demand for certain types of health food and beverage products, and the segment is projected to continue to grow through 2014.

Today there are several main directions in the healthy food market:

Natural: no artificial additives, flavors, dyes, preservatives, GMOs.
Reducing calories, sugar, salt, trans fats, cholesterol, gluten, etc.
Additional value of the product: enrichment with vitamins, minerals and other valuable nutrients.

Multifunctionality (taste + quality + benefits).

New categories of dairy products have appeared on the market:

Products made from skim milk and whey for dietary nutrition with improved taste properties, enriched with natural additives (flavored kefir, drinks made from whey and buttermilk, low-fat curd creams, etc.);

Modified products with the replacement of individual milk components with vegetable ones (cheese, creamy spreads, canned milk, etc.);

Products with protective factors (fermented milk drinks, products enriched with vitamins, in particular b-carotene, multivitamin premixes and dietary supplements);

Products for vegetarians (soy milk, drinks)

Products with new consumer properties (cheese pastes based on cottage cheese, desserts based on sour cream and cream, sauces based on sour cream and whey, dairy products of increased stability with improved taste characteristics);

Foods and drinks for diabetic nutrition (sweetened through the use of non-calorie sweeteners).

In Russia, the richest selection is presented in the category of functional products that normalize digestion and strengthen the immune system. On store shelves you can find cheeses with reduced fat content, low-fat products that reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases, low-lactose and lactose-free products intended for 25% of the Russian population, for whom milk sugar is contraindicated.

New generation product format

Currently, among the existing groups of functional products in the food industry, drinks are showing the most rapid growth.

Thus, recently the Blagoveshchensk Dairy Plant began producing drinking yogurt without sugar and fruit fillers with a fat content of 2.5%, for the production of which a starter of live yogurt cultures is used.

“We created this product to please those who are on a diet and for some reason cannot drink sweet fermented milk drinks,” commented Commercial Director plant Maria Potapova. - And there are a lot of such people. These are, first of all, expectant and nursing mothers and children early age, overweight people. You can not only drink yogurt, but also season salads with it, using it instead of mayonnaise, which is practiced all over the world.”

Among the new fermented milk products are two new flavors of the Bifilife drink: “Wild Berry” and “Peach-Banana”. In addition, the company promises that by the end of the year, Amur residents will be able to try a wide range of products that will be bottled on the Italian line: bio-yogurt, bio-kefir, “Ayran” and “Tan”.

It is known that fermented milk products play an important role in dietary and therapeutic nutrition, as they contain nutrients and biologically active substances. Here we can observe obvious growth: if in 2010 61,282 tons of fortified fermented milk products were produced, then in the next year - 64,650 tons.

Danone-Unimilk's Bio Balance line of dairy products now includes milk enriched with BalancePro complex with vitamin D, which promotes calcium absorption.

The Nestlé Russia company presented at Russian market food industry dairy nutrition for pregnant and nursing mothers “Mom and Me”. The development of the product was preceded by many years of international research into the influence of proteins, fats, carbohydrates, various vitamins and minerals on fetal development, writes Sostav.ru. The product can be found in pharmacies and on store shelves in the baby food section.

This year, Wimm-Bill-Dann offered a new product for children from eight months - viscous yogurt "Agusha" prunes. The benefits of prunes are beyond doubt: they contain a lot of carbohydrates (glucose, fructose, sucrose), microelements (potassium, magnesium and iron) and vitamins (A, C, E, B vitamins). In addition, everyone knows the beneficial effect of prunes on digestion: the dietary fiber in its composition improves the functioning of the stomach and intestines. Yogurt with natural prunes helps the baby’s digestion, as it contains bifidobacteria and prebiotics.

Milk with lactulose from Dairy plant"Stavropol". It is designed to help the body cope with dysbiosis - an inevitable consequence of taking antibiotics.

Lactulose is an isomer of lactose, milk sugar. It is not broken down in the upper gastrointestinal tract and, unlike lactose, is not absorbed by the intestines, but it can be absorbed by a person’s own bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. In addition, it replaces a slightly alkaline environment, which promotes the proliferation of pathogenic microorganisms, with a slightly acidic environment, favorable for beneficial ones.

“200 grams of milk contains a preventive daily dose of lactulose - 3 grams. In eight to ten days, with the help of lactulose, you can completely restore the intestinal microflora and avoid the negative consequences of its disturbance,” explains CEO plant Sergey Anisimov.

The Tyumen company "Zolotye Luga" has expanded its range of low-fat dairy products with milk containing ppm. 0.5%. The company also produces 1% kefir, low-fat cottage cheese, sour cream with honey. 10%. All products are produced without the addition of any milk protein or fat substitutes

According to American scientists from Harvard University, drinking skim milk and yogurt makes your hip bones stronger and healthier. Their study showed that low-fat dairy products can effectively compensate for the deficiency of protein, calcium and vitamin D, which is especially important for older people. "Dairy products provide a number of important nutrients that are beneficial for bone health," said author Sahni. He stressed that this does not apply to all dairy products. For example, cream or ice cream contains a small amount of nutrients and at the same time oversaturated with unhealthy fats and sugar. According to him, drinking 2.5-3 servings of milk and yogurt per day improves bone density. During the new studies, scientists plan to study the effect of cheese on bone health, and will also try to find out whether certain dairy products have an effect on reducing the number of fractures.

By the way, just one cup of plain low-fat yogurt provides 415 mg of calcium - almost half the daily requirement for women.

This year the Savushkin Product company (Belarus) presented Optimal yogurt enriched with bifidobacteria. The Institute of Physiology of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus has confirmed that Optimal yoghurts help normalize metabolism and intestinal microflora. For those who are watching their figure, the company presents low-fat yogurt “Optimal. Nothing superfluous!”, which can be used in dietary nutrition, helps maintain optimal weight. In addition, as reported by Unipack.ru, “Savushkin Product” produces cottage cheese with “Nezhny” sea salt. The potassium and sodium it contains help nutrients penetrate cells: calcium improves blood clotting and the functioning of the nervous system, magnesium normalizes metabolic processes and prevents development of allergies, bromine has a calming effect and improves skin condition, and iodine promotes the functioning of the thyroid gland.

Also at the end of last year, the company introduced a new product for the youngest lovers of dairy products - Montik curd and yogurt cream. The dessert combines the benefits of cottage cheese and yogurt and is additionally enriched with calcium and vitamin D, which are necessary for the normal growth and development of a child’s bones.

The Russian market for functional food products is rather poorly developed, and the market for ingredients for food fortification is even less so. Despite a number of activities carried out in this direction, for example, the preparation of the “Concept of state policy in the field of healthy nutrition of the Russian population,” government officials do not provide tangible support for this branch of the food industry, whereas in developed countries it was government regulation that gave impetus to its development.

As Leatherhead researchers note, the future of functional foods depends on several key factors. Europe is currently considering the adoption of certain standards that would allow declaring the benefits of products. Especially important element there will be authenticity. It will be possible to make only those claims on packaging that have a reliable scientific basis, which will also affect the legislation of other countries.

In addition, consumers around the world are becoming skeptics and do not trust all claims made on packaging. They are beginning to pay more and more attention to proving the benefits of the product, so its benefits should not only be attractive, but also reasoned. Along with the expansion of the number of functional products, the key words have become “proven” and “recommended”. That is why it is important for manufacturers to use ingredients whose functionality has been confirmed by the world's leading clinical laboratories.

Useful properties can become the basis for a strategy for promoting a product in the food industry market and distinguishing it from competing brands. The functional dairy products and beverages market is a dynamically developing segment where innovation is the key to success. And if the modern dairy market poses challenges for manufacturers, the ingredients market always offers up-to-date solutions. By creating new products that correspond to the main global trends, the manufacturer gets a real chance to become a leader in a certain niche.

* The calculations use average data for Russia

This market analysis is based on information from independent industry and news sources, as well as official data Federal service state statistics. Interpretation of indicators is also carried out taking into account data available in open sources. The analytics includes representative areas and indicators that provide the most complete overview of the market in question. The analysis is carried out for the Russian Federation as a whole, as well as for federal districts; The Crimean Federal District is not included in some reviews due to a lack of statistical data.

1. GENERAL INFORMATION

Milk and dairy products are among the most consumed food products both in the world and in Russia. Milk and dairy products are usually understood as liquid whole milk and fermented milk products, cream, cheeses and cottage cheese, butter, milk powder (skimmed and whole), milk fat powder, whey, condensed milk products, milk protein concentrates, ice cream. Among fermented milk products, the most popular are kefir, yogurt, acidophilus, yogurt (including Greek), tan, ayran, and kumiss. Buttermilk, fermented baked milk, Varenets, sour cream.

World prices for dairy products are set by the Global Daily Trade auction, which is held by the world's largest dairy producer and is held once every two weeks.

2. CLASSIFIER OKVED

In Russia, according to the OKVED classifier, the production of dairy products falls under section 15.5 “Production of dairy products,” which includes the following groups:

15.51 “Milk processing and cheese production”

15.51.1 “Production of whole milk products”

15.51.11 “Production of processed liquid milk”

15.51.12 “Production of sour cream and liquid cream”

15.51.13 “Production of fermented milk products”

15.51.14 “Production of cottage cheese and cheese and curd products”

15.51.2 “Production of milk, cream and other dairy products in solid forms”

15.51.3 “Production of cow butter”

15.51.4 “Cheese production”

15.51.5 “Production of condensed dairy products and dairy products not included in other groups”

15.52 “Ice cream production”

Despite the detailed classification, all groups are quite closely related to each other, which makes it advisable to analyze the dairy products market as a whole.

3. ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE INDUSTRY

Experts suggest that in the next ten years the consumption of milk and dairy products in the world will increase by 35-40%. Their consumption in Russia has been declining in recent years. In 2014, according to Rosstat, it amounted to 244 kg per person per year, which is almost 100 kg less than the consumption rate recommended by the Ministry of Health (320-340 kg). According to the results of a study conducted by the Dairy Products Market Index company, the majority of Russians note an insufficient range of dairy products in stores.

In 2016, there was an increase in demand for dairy products. According to the National Union of Milk Producers, in the first quarter of 2016, the consumption of whole milk powder increased by more than 30%, cheeses and cheese products - by 5.8%, whole milk products and skim milk - by 3%, butter - by 2% .

Table 1. Consumption of main dairy products per capita in Russia in 2010-2015*, kg

* Data for 2015 are estimates due to the lack of official market statistics

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In the first half of 2015, Russian enterprises produced 1.4% more whole milk (5,873 thousand tons) than in the same period in 2014. The growth leaders were the Central and Volga federal districts. Overall, 6 regions produce 95% of the total volume of whole milk.

Figure 1. Shares of regions in the total volume of whole milk production

The volume of production of fermented milk products (without cottage cheese and sour cream) in the first half of 2015 decreased slightly - by about 2%. A total of 1,273 thousand tons were produced. More than half of the volume was produced by 10 regions.

Figure 2. Shares of regions in the total production of fermented milk products (without cottage cheese and sour cream)

The production volumes of cottage cheese (+9.7% compared to 2014) and sour cream (+5.6% compared to 2014) increased. The leaders in the production of cottage cheese are the Central and Volga Federal Districts - they each own 25% of the market. The most dynamic region in development is the Crimean Federal District, which increased production volume by 56% over the year. The leaders in sour cream production are also the Central and Volga Federal Districts with market shares of 21% and 20%, respectively.

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Prices for dairy products have recently shown a steady upward trend. Experts consider this a delayed effect from the increase in raw milk prices in 2013-2014. However, the decline in demand significantly restrains this growth. In April 2016, the retail price of drinking milk increased by 0.3% and amounted to 35 rubles/kg, which, however, is 1.3% cheaper than in April 2015. The price of butter in April 2016 decreased by 0.7% (261.2 rubles/kg), while the annual cost increase was 4.6%. Experts attribute the decrease in prices in April to the growing volume of imports. The cost of hard cheeses increased to 308.8 rubles/kg (+2.2%), the annual increase in price was 4.2%.

The growth in demand for dairy products in Russia is primarily due to imported products. In particular, in the first quarter of 2016, 30% more cheeses and cheese-like products were imported than in the same period in 2015. Among the reasons for this growth, experts cite a decrease in world prices for cheeses, as well as a slight strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. The main increase was shown by: the Republic of Belarus – by 41%, Serbia – by 87%, Armenia – by 2 times. The main importer of cheeses, cottage cheese and other dairy products is Belarus, whose share in total imports is 85%.

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According to analysts, increasing import volumes leads to increased consumption and curbs price increases. Thus, in the first quarter of 2016, cheese consumption increased by 8.1%. On the other hand, this reduces the competitiveness and profitability of domestic producers. To increase competitiveness Russian enterprises will be forced to reduce the cost of production, which, according to experts, may lead to an increase in the share of counterfeit products.

Figure 3. Structure of imports of cheeses and cottage cheese (in in physical terms) to Russia in 2015

The volume of exports of dairy products in the first quarter of 2016 also increased, exceeding last year’s figure by 29% (176 thousand tons). At the same time, in value terms, the volume of exports increased by only 5.9%, which indicates a decrease in export prices. In the structure of exports, the share of whole milk products increased - up to 12%, cheeses and cottage cheese - up to 23%, butter - up to 7%. The share of ice cream, condensed and powdered milk, and cream has decreased. The main consumers of Russian dairy products are Kazakhstan and other CIS countries. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s share in the export structure is decreasing, and Ukraine’s share is increasing due to the supply of humanitarian aid.

In 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Trade created a department for the development of the market for socially significant goods, which at the first stage will deal only with the dairy and meat products, cereals, sunflower and butter, as well as a number of other products, the prices of which can be regulated by the state.

To increase the competitiveness of products Russian manufacturers– both for internal and external foreign markets– the introduction of innovative solutions in the areas of production technology and organizational management is required.

4. ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM THE FEDERAL STATISTICS SERVICE

Rosstat data, which the service receives by collecting official data from market participants, may not coincide with data from analytical agencies, whose analytics are based on surveys and the collection of unofficial data.

Figure 4. Dynamics of the main financial indicators industry according to section OKVED 15.5 for 2007-2015, thousand rubles.

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Figure 5. Dynamics of indicators of receivables and payables of the industry according to section OKVED 15.5 for 2007-2015, thousand rubles.

Figure 6. Dynamics of the main financial ratios industry according to section OKVED 15.5 for 2007-2015.

Figure 7. Shipped products of own production, OKVED 15.5 for 2007-2015, thousand rubles.

As can be seen from the above diagrams, revenue and profit in the industry have a stable growth trend throughout the entire period under review. The profitability of sales is approximately at the same level. Characteristic is the growth of receivables and payables - more than 2 times in the period under review. At the same time, the provision of own funds from 2010 to 2014 was at a fairly high level - within 40%; in 2015 the figure decreased by almost half. All this may indicate problems in mutual settlements with both suppliers and buyers, which, in turn, leads to shortages working capital in branch. Return on sales and return on assets are at a fairly low level - less than 10%, which may indicate a shallow level of processing of products, giving low level added value of products.

Figure 8. Shares of regions in total sales of products according to section OKVED 15.5 in 2015

5. CONCLUSION

In recent years – until 2015 – demand on the Russian dairy market has been declining. At the beginning of 2016, there was some increase in demand, however, primarily due to imported products. The competitiveness of Russian products is at a fairly low level. To increase it, it is necessary to master new technologies, as well as effective management. Governmental support industry is sporadic, which also negatively affects its condition.

Denis Miroshnichenko
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Portrait of the end consumer of the Russian milk and dairy products market

Milk and dairy products have traditionally been a vital component in the Russian diet. Their share in the cost of the consumer basket is 16%. For comparison: 11% of the total consumer basket is bread and bakery products. The overwhelming, if not absolute, majority of Russians are consumers of milk and dairy products. Milk and dairy products are equally loved by both urban and rural residents. With all this, Russia lags significantly behind many developed countries in the consumption of milk and dairy products. Thus, according to the Russian Dairy Union, today the average resident of our country produces approximately 260 kg of this product annually, which is almost two times lower than the standards recommended by international nutrition experts.

It is impossible not to note the influence of income on consumer preferences. Thus, with low income, many consumers focus on more traditional products (milk, kefir, sour cream) in a lower price segment. With rising incomes, preferences are confidently shifting towards more expensive products, as well as so-called “new” products, for example, dairy products fortified with vitamins and microelements, with the addition of juices, dairy desserts and much more (sugurts, smoothies, whey products, curd desserts and dairy products with a special advertising emphasis on a specific consumer).

If we structure the Russian population according to average per capita income, we get the following picture:

Table 1

Population structure by average per capita monetary income

Income level, rub.	Population share, %
2 000,1 - 4 000,0
4 000,1 - 6 000,0
6 000,1 - 8 000,0
8 000,1 - 10 000,0
10 000,1 - 15 000,0
15 000,1 - 25 000,0
Over 25,000.0
Total:

Thus, the largest share of the population (19.1%) falls on people with an income level of 10-15,000 rubles per month.

As part of the implementation of the "Dairy Health" project, aimed at promoting Russian producers of high-quality dairy products, a survey of consumers of milk and dairy products was conducted. Analysis of the results showed that more than 55% buy milk at least 2 times a week, of which 33% prefer to go to the store for it every day.

The majority of the consumer audience is women. At the same time, 61% buy milk 2 or more times a week, 36% buy milk every day. Among men, 42% make regular purchases (at least 2 times a week), and only 24% of them make purchases every day.
Women's consumer activity is explained by the fact that they not only drink more milk (63% buy it for themselves, 54% of them drink milk daily), but also buy it for children and grandchildren - 40%, and other family members - 35%.

Among men, only 19% of respondents buy dairy products and milk for children and grandchildren, 28% - for other family members. Almost half of the male audience (49%) buys milk for themselves, and consumes it every day - 39%.

However, it is worth noting that 22% of respondents do not buy milk at all and 21% do not drink milk. Moreover, there are significantly more men who do not buy or drink milk than women: 35% versus 16% do not buy, 31% versus 18% do not drink.

Diagram 1

Portrait of a buyer and consumer of milk and dairy products

Source: M"Index

The current consumption volume on the dairy market is as follows. The average per capita milk consumption is 230 liters. Over the past 5 years, per capita consumption has fluctuated between 200-250 liters per person. According to experts, the consumption rate of whole milk is about 340-350 liters per capita per year. Thus, milk consumption practically remains at about 60-65 of the recommended amount. That is, compared to an American or European, a Russian underconsumes 35-40% of the recommended milk intake per year.

Over the past 5 years, consumer preferences in the dairy market have become a completely stable trend. Consumer demand is increasingly individualized, many prefer to choose products that suit their lifestyle, where the nutritional system plays an important role, focusing on the calorie content and healthiness of food, age and gender gradation.

Currently, for a significant part of buyers, the cost of the product is not as important as the issue of the quality and composition of the milk. This is facilitated by the media, which constantly maintains the hype around the market for dairy products and milk. At the same time, the undisputed majority of respondents (42%) give preference to domestically produced products. The demand for branded products is increasing. What is important to the buyer is a brand that he trusts and is used to. When purchasing, 40% of consumers pay attention, first of all, to the shelf life and production date. Moreover, if for the population with a low level of income long term storage is a positive characteristic of a product, then for the population with an average and high level This is definitely a deterrent factor, signaling the low quality and unnaturalness of the product.

In terms of consumption, the market leaders continue to be traditional dairy products - milk, kefir, fermented baked milk, sour cream, etc. Their share in volume terms accounts for about 83% of sales, of which 49% is drinking (sterilized and pasteurized) milk. The remaining 17% belong to the yogurt and dessert group.
The absolute leader in consumption in Russia is drinking milk, followed by fermented milk products in second place, cheese in third place, and butter and spreads in fourth place. The best-selling product is kefir. Every year the demand for yoghurts with pieces of fruit and juices grows by 40-50%, and milk-juice shakes are also actively gaining ground. From traditional segments good growth show cheeses (hard and processed) - by 15% per year, curd products - by 10-12% per year.

Fermented milk products are in stable consumer demand. The most popular are yogurt, kefir and cottage cheese - these products are chosen by 38, 29 and 21% of consumers who consume fermented milk products daily, respectively.

Diagram 2
Dairy consumption

The attitude of consumers towards the quality of dairy products can be characterized as follows. According to numerous specialized surveys, the main criteria by which consumers choose dairy products include the following:

• naturalness and usefulness of the product;
• freshness and shelf life (shorter shelf life confirms the freshness of the product);
• product composition (no preservatives or dyes);
• taste qualities of the product (variety of flavors and fillers);
• product packaging (convenience, availability of lid and design);
• manufacturer and brand of product.

In addition, buyers of milk and dairy products, largely thanks to advertising and information in the media, popular science articles and television programs, pay attention to such characteristics as the presence of beneficial bacteria, fat content and price.

Having analyzed all of the above, we can draw the following conclusions. The Russian dairy market is actively expanding the range of dairy products provided. Experts predict a gradual decline in the consumption of traditional dairy products (sour cream, fermented baked milk, yogurt) in favor of fortified modern products (biokefir, bio-milk, bio-yogurt). Any dessert dairy products that people consume not to satisfy hunger, but for pleasure, are also promising. And this is, first of all, due to an increase in the income of the population. The total volume of these products will grow not only due to an increase in the number of new consumers, but also due to an increase in the frequency of consumption of this product category by regular customers.

That is, in general, the Russian market follows the development of mature markets, whose consumers are seriously concerned about the issues of preserving youth and healthy eating.

Introduction

Conclusion

Bibliography

Annex 1

Appendix 2

Introduction

Topic of this course work– analysis of the dairy products market.

The work will analyze changes in the volume of production and consumption of goods, changes in the structure of exports and imports of goods, changes in the price of goods. Technological changes taking place in the industry will be discussed.

The purpose of the work is to consolidate theoretical knowledge on the topics “Theory of supply and demand”, “Elasticity of demand and supply”, “ Government regulation market”, “Production of economic goods”, practical acquaintance with methods economic analysis, acquisition of skills for independent analysis of economic reality.

1. Analysis of the dairy market

Milk is one of the oldest food products known to us.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2007 the production of whole milk products in Russia continued to increase. Domestic enterprises produced products in the amount of 10,021,718 tons, the growth rate compared to the corresponding period from the beginning of the previous year amounted to 102.9%.

The production of whole milk products in terms of milk for the 12 months of 2007 in all federal districts, except for the Central, increased, and in the Southern and Ural districts it was possible to ensure the best indicators - there the increase in volumes amounted to 7.3% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 2006

The largest producing regions of milk and dairy products are the Central and Volga districts. Their total share in the total output of dairy products in Russia in January–December 2007 was about 56%.

Data on the production of whole milk products in 2007 by region are presented in Table 1.

Table 1

Region Russian Federation	Production of whole milk products
	in terms of milk in regional terms, t
	12 months 2007	12 months 2006	Rates of growth, %
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Central Federal District
Belgorod region
Bryansk region
Vladimir region
Voronezh region
Ivanovo region
Kaluga region
Kostroma region
Kursk region
Lipetsk region
Moscow region
Oryol region
Ryazan region
Smolensk region
Tambov region
Tver region
Tula region
Yaroslavl region
Republic of Karelia
Komi Republic
Arkhangelsk region
Nenets Autonomous Okrug
Vologda region
Kaliningrad region
Leningrad region.
Murmansk region
Novgorod region
Pskov region
Saint Petersburg
Southern Federal District
Republic of Adygea
The Republic of Dagestan
Republic of Kalmykia
Karachay-Cherkess Republic
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania
Krasnodar region
Stavropol region
Astrakhan region
Volgograd region
Rostov region
Volga Federal District
Republic of Bashkortostan
Mari El Republic
The Republic of Mordovia
Republic of Tatarstan
Udmurt republic
Chuvash Republic
Perm region
Kirov region
Nizhny Novgorod region.
Orenburg region
Penza region
Samara region
Saratov region
Ulyanovsk region
Ural federal district
Kurgan region
Sverdlovsk region.
Tyumen region
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug
Chelyabinsk region
Siberian Federal District
Altai Republic
The Republic of Buryatia
Tyva Republic
The Republic of Khakassia
Altai region
Krasnoyarsk region
Irkutsk region
Ust-Ordynsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug 1539
Kemerovo region.
Novosibirsk region
Omsk region
Tomsk region
Chita region
Aginsky Buryatinsky Autonomous Okrug
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Primorsky Krai
Khabarovsk region
Amur region
Kamchatka region
Magadan region
Sakhalin region
Jewish Autonomous Region
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug

In the Central Federal District over the 12 months of 2007, production output decreased slightly compared to the corresponding period in 2006 - by only 0.6%. However, some regions in this federal district have increased their volumes: Belgorod region. – by 17.1%, Vladimir region. – by 3.3, Ivanovo region. – by 3.1, Kaluga region. – by 3.7, Kostroma region. – by 13.4, Kursk region. – at 15.3, Moscow region. – by 6.7, Ryazan region. – by 5.6, Tula region. – by 2.1 and Moscow – by 3%. However, in some regions of the district, production decreased, including Bryansk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Oryol, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver and Yaroslavl regions.

In the Northwestern Federal District, indicators improved by 4.2% due to seven regions. At the same time, the largest increase in production volumes was recorded in St. Petersburg, where production increased by 10.8%. However, in four regions - the Komi Republic, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions - a decrease in the output of dairy products was noted.

In the Southern Federal District, production volumes of whole milk products increased by 7.3% due to six regions, with the most significant increase in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic - by 26.4%, the Astrakhan region. – by 26.1, the Republic of Adygea – by 22.1%, the Krasnodar Territory – by 12.9%, the Republic of Dagestan – by 3.9%. In four regions they decreased, especially sharply in the Republic of Kalmykia, where only 58.7% of output was used compared to last year.

In the Volga Federal District, product output increased by 4.1%. All regions, except five - the Chuvash Republic, Kirov, Nizhny Novgorod, Penza and Saratov regions, worked above last year's indicators. At the same time, the best performance in January-December 2006 was achieved by producers from the Udmurt Republic, which increased their volumes by 16.3%, and from the Ulyanovsk region. – at 15.5, Orenburg region. – by 13.3%.

In the Ural Federal District, volume growth of 6.4% was ensured by the following regions: Tyumen region, where production increased by 8.4% compared to last year, Sverdlovsk region. – by 5.4, Chelyabinsk region. – by 7.3, Kurgan region. – by 4.5%. Output decreased only in Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrugs, where 93.6 and 74.5% have been mastered, respectively.

In the Siberian Federal District, volumes increased by 4.2% compared to last year: in the Novosibirsk region. - by 27.3%, the Republic of Khakassia - by 15.7, Irkutsk region. – by 9.7%, in the Altai Republic – by 2.6 times.

In the Far Eastern Federal District in 2007, the production of whole milk products increased by 3.5% due to the following regions: Republic of Sakha - by 9.2%, Sakhalin region. – by 6.2, Magadan region. - 9.4, Khabarovsk Territory - by 6.2, Amur Region. – by 3.8, Kamchatka region. – by 2.7, Jewish Autonomous Region – by 24.9%.

The output of low-fat dairy products, although it continued to decline compared to last year, was at a slower pace than in previous periods. 447,455 tons of products were produced, or 97.8% compared to 2006.

Data on the volume of production of low-fat dairy products in the region for 12 months of 2007 are presented in Table 2. As can be seen from the data in Table 2, over the 12 months of 2007, consumer demand for low-fat dairy products begins to intensify slightly. In the largest producing and consuming region, Moscow, during the specified period, only 77%, or 43,069 tons, were produced instead of last year’s 55,906 tons. But in the Moscow region. Manufacturers achieved high growth rates: production volumes increased by 65.8% - from last year’s 5930 tons to 9832 tons in 2007.

table 2

Region of the Russian Federation	Production of low-fat dairy products
	in terms of	for skim milk, t
			2007 to 2006, %
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Central Federal District
Belgorod region
Bryansk region
Vladimir region
Voronezh region
Ivanovo region
Kaluga region
Kostroma region
Kursk region
Lipetsk region
Moscow region
Oryol region
Ryazan region
Smolensk region
Tambov region
Tver region
Tula region
Yaroslavl region
Northwestern Federal District
Republic of Karelia
Komi Republic
Arkhangelsk region
Nenets Autonomous Okrug
Vologda region
Kaliningrad region
Leningrad region.
Murmansk region
Novgorod region
Pskov region
Saint Petersburg
Southern Federal District
Republic of Adygea
The Republic of Dagestan
Krasnodar region
Stavropol region
Volgograd region
Rostov region
Volga Federal District
Republic of Bashkortostan
Mari El Republic
The Republic of Mordovia
Republic of Tatarstan
Udmurt republic
Chuvash Republic
Perm region
Kirov region
Nizhny Novgorod region.
Orenburg region
Penza region
Samara region
Saratov region
Ulyanovsk region
Ural federal district
Kurgan region
Sverdlovsk region.
Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug
Chelyabinsk region
Siberian Federal District
The Republic of Buryatia
The Republic of Khakassia
Altai region
Krasnoyarsk region
Irkutsk region
Ust-Ordynsky Buryat Autonomous District 8
Kemerovo region.
Novosibirsk region
Omsk region
Tomsk region
Chita region
Far Eastern Federal District
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Primorsky Krai
Amur region
Kamchatka region
Sakhalin region

In St. Petersburg, the output of low-fat dairy products in 2007 corresponded to only 63.2% of last year’s level, or 3519 tons instead of 5572 tons in 2006. In the Leningrad region. things are even worse: only 6.3% of the previous year’s level was mastered and only 102 tons were produced instead of 1607 tons.

Statistical data on the production of whole milk substitute (powdered) for 12 months. 2007 are presented in table. 3.

Table 3

Region of the Russian Federation	Production of whole substitute		milk (powdered), t
			2007 to 2006, %
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Central Federal District
Bryansk region
Moscow region
Tver region
Tula region
Northwestern Federal District
Novgorod region
Southern Federal District
Stavropol region
Volgograd region
Volga Federal District
Republic of Bashkortostan
Republic of Tatarstan
Udmurt republic
Siberian Federal District
Altai region
Krasnoyarsk region
Kemerovo region.
Novosibirsk region
Omsk region

Information on liquid and pasty dairy products for young children for 2007 is presented in Table 4.

Table 4

Region of the Russian Federation	Production	liquid and paste dairy products
	products for young children, tons
			2007 to 2006, %
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Central Federal District
Bryansk region
Voronezh region
Lipetsk region
Moscow region
Tver region
Northwestern Federal District
Saint Petersburg
Southern Federal District
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic
Astrakhan region
Volgograd region
Volga Federal District
Republic of Tatarstan
Penza region
Ulyanovsk region
Ural federal district
Sverdlovsk region.
Siberian Federal District
The Republic of Khakassia
Altai region
Irkutsk region
Kemerovo region.
Novosibirsk region
Chita region
Far Eastern Federal District
Khabarovsk region
Amur region
Sakhalin region

Liquid and paste-like dairy products for young children are in good demand among consumers - their production volumes for 12 months. 2007 increased by 1.8%.

The largest producing and consumer region is Moscow – its share in the period under review amounted to 71.2% of Russian production volumes. At the same time, production volumes in Moscow are actively growing - the increase in the period under review was 9.5%. In Moscow, these products are produced by the Children's Dairy Products Plant (Wimm-Bill-Dann company) under the Agusha brand. The Agushi assortment includes children's cottage cheese, children's and Beefy kefir, children's yogurt, and fortified baby milk.

One of the large producers of children's dairy products is OJSC Bryansk City Dairy Plant. This enterprise produces products under the Am-am brand, including sterilized and pasteurized drinking milk, Detsky kefir, cottage cheese-DM (using the ultrafiltration method), fermented milk pastes, and the fermented milk product Bifilife.

Products under the Tema brand are produced by Petmol in St. Petersburg, the Novosibirsk plant and dairy plant No. 3 in Volgograd, and the Samaralakto plant in Samara will also soon begin producing. In the series of children's products under the Tema brand, customers can purchase fortified and fortified baby milk, kefir, fermented milk product with bifidobacteria, vitamins, minerals and iodine, as well as cottage cheese and curd paste.

The Russian dairy market is becoming increasingly dependent on changing global conditions. For many years, even in a market economy, it remained relatively autonomous. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, milk is a perishable product; given the large geographical extent, it is impossible to organize supplies of raw milk from abroad. The import of small volumes from border areas does not change the situation. Secondly, until recently, the main suppliers of milk powder and dairy products remained Belarus and Ukraine, which are experiencing similar difficulties in dairy farming as we are and whose product prices are quite comparable to ours. Restrictions on the import of dairy products from Ukraine immediately increased our dependence on European supplies.

Processing enterprises coexisted with foreign production on our territory in the presence of large volumes of imported products on the market. It is difficult to call this coexistence peaceful. Domestic dairy farming slowly degraded, and enterprises, in the face of a constant decrease in supplies of raw materials, desperately tried to survive. Market leaders and holding companies that have emerged in recent years have been crowding out regional factories that have not yet lost their independence. Over the past decade, between 5% and 8% of factories have ceased production each year.

The EU promised to abolish export subsidies by 2012. The abolition proceeded in stages, and there was no sign of an acceleration of this process. In mid-2007, subsidies for butter and cheeses were completely removed. This should not be considered an act of good will, it is an economically forced measure. There is not enough milk in Europe. The shortage began to be felt last year and gradually increased. The increased demand for milk powder in Asia and North Africa has led to an increase in prices. Drying milk has become so profitable that even European cheese makers have become interested in it. Then the EU Milk Management Committee, at the proposal of the European Commission, completely abolished subsidies for milk powder. This did not solve the problem; milk exports continued. Meanwhile, the demand for dairy products grew in Europe itself, as a result, their shortage began to be felt, and prices “crept up” while prices for raw milk remained unchanged. In August, European livestock farmers also demanded that milk prices be set at 0.4 euros without canceling quotas.

Russia is one of the leading importing countries, so the influence of the world market until recently, given the presence of export subsidies in the EU, was indirect. Powdered milk from Europe was not affordable, so the rise in prices began to affect it only when Belarus began supplying milk to Asian and African countries this year. It didn't last long. As soon as prices approached New Zealand prices, they stopped purchasing Belarusian milk, because the quality of New Zealand milk is noticeably higher. Europe does not need Belarusian milk, if only for livestock feed, but this is already an expensive pleasure. Russia again became almost the only major buyer. Belarusian traders are trying to raise prices to world levels, but they are not succeeding. As soon as prices approach Russian prices, trading stops. And yet this exhausting struggle to raise and lower prices, equalizing supply and demand leads to rising prices. Although our prices for milk powder have not risen to European levels, they have “soared” significantly.

The abolition of export subsidies in terms of the impact on the Russian dairy market can be to some extent compared with the default of 1998, when, due to rising import prices, high demand for domestic products. This year, producers no longer have the usual reserves of butter and cheese. To increase production, we need milk, and high-quality milk, because we need to replace it with high-quality European products. But there was always a shortage of premium quality milk in Russia. In 2007, its share was only 28.5% of what was received for processing. The battle for milk has begun - a battle of giants, since only they can convince the milk producer to sell it to them. They have a compelling argument - price. Already today the price offered is 15 rubles/l, and it will continue to rise, since 1 kg of whole milk powder today already costs 116 rubles.

Following the prices for premium milk, prices for other raw milk will also rise. They began to grow already in July, as soon as European products appeared on sale at prices on average 25% higher than before. Prices for Russian dairy products also began to rise, although not as actively. In past years, they were known to reach their annual minimum in the summer.

Suppliers of imported products agreed with representatives retail chains about a gradual increase in prices. Wholesale price for imported butter with 82% fat content may exceed 150 rubles/kg by the end of this year. What will happen to domestic products? In the near future, their prices will continue to rise slowly.

There is also a positive aspect in the current situation: the production of raw milk is becoming an increasingly attractive business for large producers focused on producing large volumes of top quality milk. The number of mega-farms in the country will continue to grow.

Culture of milk consumption different nations turned out differently. About 80% of all milk consumed in the world comes from just 10 countries. Citizens of the USA and Great Britain drink the most of it (more than 100 liters per year). Consumption of milk and dairy products is traditionally high in the Nordic countries and Scandinavia. Russia is one of the “dairy” countries of the world.

The growth rate of milk consumption in the world is almost 3% per year. The consolidation of enterprises, the growth of cities, organized forms of trade, and, ultimately, a change in the entire rhythm of life greatly influence both the volume of milk consumption in general and the growth of individual segments of the dairy market in traditional or new regions. The most convenient for transportation, storage and subsequent distribution are milk and dairy products that have undergone high-temperature processing, the shelf life of which is several months without additional refrigeration. The segment of so-called aseptic or UHT milk is developing almost 2 times faster than pasteurized milk. In Russia, the growth of the UHT milk market is about 6% per year, which is almost 2 times higher than the growth rate of the pasteurized milk market. This, on the one hand, is due to the development of retail chains and their promotion to the regions, on the other hand, to the trend of concentration in the dairy industry.

The growth of the milk market is determined, on the one hand, by the growth in consumption of traditional white milk, which is used for cooking, and on the other, by the differentiation of the market and the emergence of new products on it.

The driving forces for the development of new directions are the demands and needs of people. Around the world, consumers want dairy products that are healthy, convenient for consumption in different situations, and also meet their needs. different groups population.

The desire to maintain and improve health is the main driver of innovation in the dairy market. Most new products in the dairy industry are focused on meeting the needs of consumers to maintain health and figure (diet) and try new tastes and types of products (variety). General condition product success on modern market is convenient packaging. A striking example of this is the Russian market of dairy products with a long shelf life.

In 2006 and 2007 The Russian market for dairy products with a long shelf life was influenced by the “convenience” trend. More than 40% of new products were released in more convenient packaging. These new products include the appearance of drinking white milk “House in the Village” in liter packaging with a valve cap. The consumer's desire to take care of their health and at the same time have fun is reflected in 25% of innovations. A striking example is successful development on the market of the Neo Majitel brand from the Wimm-Bill-Dann company.

Mostly white drinking milk is consumed in the world. Its volume accounts for about 80% of the world dairy market. Due to current trends in differentiation and specific milk consumption in different regions of the world, the volumes of production and consumption of white milk are slightly reduced. Other segments of the UHT milk market show high growth rates. Non-white milk segments account for about 25% of the total global volume of UHT products. The Russian UHT milk market is mainly dominated by the familiar white drinking milk with varying degrees of fat content.

The food industry is one of the oldest spheres of human activity, which has a significant impact on the level of consumption of energy, mineral and other resources of the planet. At the same time, the scale of food production, including dairy, has a significant impact on the population, its genetic and creative potential.

The problems of production and consumption of milk and dairy products are becoming increasingly relevant and increasingly dependent on the general trends in the development of the world food market. In practice, changes in the development of the dairy business are already being felt, which are determined by the processes of globalization of the world economy, changes in social patterns of nutrition of the population, reflected in the structure of agri-food markets, an increase in the level of information technology support, and the achievements of world science in this area.

2. Work assignment (with initial data)

Based on information characterizing supply and demand on the product market (Table 5), we will complete the task.

Supply and demand. Mechanism for establishing market equilibrium

1. Determine how the equilibrium price and quantity of goods have changed over ten years based on the data given in the appendix. 1 et adj. 2. The supply of goods in 2007 decreased by J% compared to 2000. Draw supply and demand curves. Explain what factors could cause changes in the supply and demand of a product.

2. Calculate the price elasticity of supply and demand in 2007. Calculate the elasticity of demand by income if the average per capita income in 2000. amounted to I00 rub. per month, and in 2007 I07 rub. per month. Draw conclusions.

Perform further tasks based on market conditions in 2007.

3. Assuming that the market price for a product in the previous period was F% below the equilibrium price, build a dynamic market model for 3 periods. Determine the amount of commodity intervention necessary to keep prices in 2007 at the level of the previous period.

4. What should be the tax rate (or subsidy) on the sale of a unit of goods so that the total revenue of sellers is maximized.

5. How will the equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity of a good change when such a tax is introduced (a subsidy is provided). Draw a graph. Describe the changes.

6. Determine the total amount of tax revenues to the budget (subsidies paid). How is this amount distributed between consumers and producers of the goods? Analyze the feasibility of introducing a tax (providing a subsidy).

7. What will happen if the government, instead of using taxes and subsidies, introduces price regulation. If the price at which the total revenue of sellers will be maximum is lower than the equilibrium price, then the state sets a “ceiling” of the price; if it is higher, then it sets a lower price limit. Draw graphically and describe the current situation.

Production and costs in market economy

Assuming that the firm is an imperfect competitor, and that the previously determined demand function for the product in 2007 quite accurately determines the consumer response to changes in production volume, it is necessary:

Determine the optimal volume of production and price, costs and profits;

Draw a graph comparing marginal revenue and marginal cost, as well as a graph comparing total revenue and total costs;

Determine the firm's costs at the equilibrium price and equilibrium production volume (P*2007 and Q*2007 from part 2). Calculate the amount of profit. Is it advisable for the firm to continue its activities in a given equilibrium state of the market?

Determine the change in consumer surplus and the amount of “dead weight” losses when the production volume changes from equilibrium to optimal.

Table 5

Initial data

Indicators

Initial data

1.In 2000 demand for goods was characterized by points with coordinates: point A: price, den. units number of units point B: price, den. units number of units 2. In 2007, the demand for goods was characterized by points with coordinates: point B: price, den. units number of units point G: price, den. units number of units 3. In 2000, the supply of goods was characterized by points with coordinates: point D: price, den. units number of units point E: price, den. units number of units 4. The supply of goods in 2007 decreased compared to 2000 by J,% 6. Average per capita income in 2000, rub. per month 7. Average per capita income in 2007, rub. per month 8. Amount of charge. fees, w, den. units 9. Decrease in the market price of a product in the previous period compared to the equilibrium price by F, % 10. Variable g from the formula for finding TFC 11. Share of labor costs in the total costs of the company, l 12. Power of natural logarithm, α

3. Supply and demand. Mechanism for establishing market equilibrium

Based on information characterizing supply and demand on the product market (Table 5), we will complete the task.

1. Assuming that the dependence of the volume of goods demanded and offered on its price is linear, we write the supply and demand functions in the following form:

Qd = a + b×P, (1)

Qs = c + e×P, (2)

where Qd, Qs – quantity, respectively, of the requested and offered goods, units;

P - product price, monetary units;

a, b, c, e – variables.

Let us determine the equation of supply and demand for goods in 1990.

Qd00 = 616.6667 – 333.3333P

Qs00 = 66.6666+266.6667P

Let us determine the coordinates of the market equilibrium point in 2000.

616.6666 – 333.3333P = 66.6667 + 266.6667P,

from where P*00 = 0.9 monetary units, Q*00 = 306.8 units.

Let us determine the equation of demand for goods in 2007.

Let us determine the supply equation for goods in 2007.

where c00, e00 are variables characterizing the dependence of the supply of goods on price in the year 2000.

i - index of price changes for the period from 2000 to 2007.

j is the coefficient of reduction in the supply of goods for the period.

Let us determine the coordinates of the market equilibrium point in 2007.

700-100P = 53.3333+42.72P,

from where P*07=4.5 monetary units. Q*07= 250 units

Consequently, over the past period the equilibrium quantity of goods decreased from 306.8 units. to 250 units, and the price increased from 0.9 den.unit. up to 4.5 den. units

Graphically, the change in supply and demand for a given period is presented in Figure 1 (Appendix 1).

The decrease in demand for goods is associated with a decrease in the standard of living of the population.

A change in the slope of the demand curve is associated with a decrease in the elasticity of demand. The decrease in the elasticity of demand was influenced by the increasing stratification of society.

2. Let us determine the elasticity of supply and demand by price in 2007.

Ed==1.8( absolute value)

This means that this product has high elasticity. The price change, expressed as a percentage, is equal to the percentage change in sales volume.

Es== 0.8 (absolute value)

An elasticity of supply less than 1 means that the product has an inelastic supply.

Let us determine the income elasticity of demand.

where Qd07, Qd00 is the volume of demand for a product at a constant price. Let us take the equilibrium price of the product in 2000 as a basis.

Qd00=Q*00 = 306.8 units.

Qd07=a07+b07 ×P*00 ×i ,(7)

where a07, b07 are the coefficients from the demand equation in 2007.

Qd07 = 700-100×0.9×5 = 250 units;

i – price change index

I00 – average per capita income in 2000.

Ic07 – average per capita income in 2007, adjusted for the price change index.

So, this product has a high income elasticity of demand. Consequently, an increase in income is accompanied by an increase in demand for this product. Indeed, with income growth, the consumer will be able to buy dairy products High Quality.

3. Assuming that the market price for a product in the previous period was 25% lower than the equilibrium price in 2007, we will build a dynamic market model, which is presented in Figure 2 (Appendix 1). Wherein:

where Qs (t) is the volume of supply of goods in t-th period.

P(t-1) - the price of the product in the (t-1) period.

Pd(t) is the market price of the product in the (t)-th period.

P(0)= P*07 × (1-f),

where f is a coefficient taking into account the lower price level in the previous period compared to the current period.

P(0) = 4.5×(1 – 0.25) = 3.375 monetary units

Qs(1) = 53.3333 + 42.72×3.375 = 197.38 units.

Pd(1) = 7 – 197.38/100 = 5.0262 monetary units.

Qs(2) = 53.3333 + 42.72×5.0262 = 267.9 units.

Pd(2) = 7 – 267.9/100 = 4.321 monetary units.

Qs(3) = 53.3333 + 42.72×4.321 = 237.8 units.

Pd(3) = 7 – 237.8/100 = 4.622 monetary units.

Consequently, over time, the deviation from equilibrium decreases, i.e. the system tends to an equilibrium position, which is clearly seen in Figure 2. The market is in a stable state.

The amount of commodity intervention in 2007 necessary to maintain the price of the previous period is determined by the difference in demand and supply of goods.

INT = Qd(P0) – Qs(P0),(10)

where INT is the amount of commodity intervention.

Qd(P0) , Qs(P0) – volumes of supply and demand at the price of the 0th period.

INT = (700-100×3.375) – (53.3333+42.72×3.375) = 165.12 monetary units.

4. Sellers' revenue will be maximum at the point where the elasticity of demand coefficient is -1. Therefore, the supply curve for the good must also pass through this point.

Considering that the price elasticity of demand can be determined by the formula

Let's determine the price at which sellers' revenue will be maximum:

The demand for the product will be: Qd = 700 – 100×3.5 = 350 units.

5. Let us determine the amount of tax or subsidy per unit of goods, the introduction of which will lead to the establishment of market equilibrium at the point with coordinates:

P = 3.5 thousand rubles, Q = 350 units.

The supply equation will then look like:

Qs = 200.48 + 42.72P

Let's move on to the inverse equations, it was:

necessary: ​​Ps =

Therefore, the amount of the subsidy should be: T= -4.7+1.2= 3.5 monetary units. for 1 unit goods.

After the introduction of the subsidy, the equilibrium price will decrease from 4.5 monetary units. to 3.5 monetary units, and the equilibrium quantity of goods will increase from 250 to 350 units.

A graphical interpretation of the introduction of the subsidy is presented in Figure 3 (Appendix 1).

6. The total amount of subsidy payments from the budget (TS) will be:

S =3.5×350 =1225

Producers will increase production volumes, and the equilibrium price will decrease. Therefore, payment of a subsidy is appropriate.

7. Instead of introducing subsidies, the state can use methods of direct price regulation. In this case, in order for sellers to maximize their revenue, it is necessary to set the upper price limit at 3.5 thousand rubles. per ton. We depict the establishment of a price ceiling in Figure 4 (Appendix 1).

At a given price level, the quantity supplied of a good is:

Qs = 53.3333 + 42.72 × 3.5 = 203 units.

And the volume of demand: Qd = 700 – 100 × 3.5 = 350 units.

The deficit will be (350 – 203 = 147) units. and will exceed the volume of production of goods. The introduction of a price “ceiling” means that non-monetary costs will be added to the monetary costs of consumers. The latter are associated with searching for goods, standing in queues, etc. These non-monetary costs will fall into the distribution of scarce goods. Consequently, the introduction of an upper price limit at 3.5 thousand rubles. per unit products are inappropriate.

4. Production and costs in a market economy

1. Let us assume that the firm is an imperfect competitor, i.e. has a significant share of industry production and can influence price. Therefore, as production output increases, the market becomes increasingly saturated and, consequently, prices decrease. In such conditions, an increase in production beyond a certain level will lead to a fall in profits.

It is necessary, in accordance with market conditions, to determine the optimal volume of production, its price, fixed and variable costs, and profit.

We believe that the previously determined demand function in 2007 quite accurately reflects the reaction of consumers to changes in production volume. Based on the demand equation of the form:

Let's plot the demand function (Fig. 5, Appendix 2). We will divide the segment on the abscissa axis from 0 to Qmax into 8 equal parts. Each production volume Qi corresponds to a price Pi (i = 1.7), i.e.

The maximum quantity demanded will be established at a price equal to 0, and the price will be maximum if the quantity demanded is equal to 0.

At P=0, Q=700. At Q=0, P=7. Let's find P using the formula:

Q = 87.5 units, P = 6.125 monetary units.

Q = 175 units, P = 5.25 monetary units.

Q = 262.5 units, P = 4.375 monetary units.

Q = 350 units, P = 3.5 monetary units.

Q = 437.5 units, P = 2.625 monetary units.

Q = 525 units, P = 1.75 monetary units.

Q = 612.5 units, P = 0. 875 monetary units.

The total revenue TRi from the sale of goods for each i-th volume of production Qi and the corresponding price Pi will be determined by the formula

TR = Qi × Pi(15)

TR = 535.9375 monetary units

TR = 918.75 monetary units

TR = 1148.4375 monetary units

TR = 1225 monetary units

TR = 1148.4375 monetary units

TR = 918.75 monetary units

TR = 535.9375 monetary units

Marginal revenue (MR) is the difference in revenue a firm receives when its output increases by an additional unit.

MR = (535.9375-0)/87.5 = 6.125

MR= (918.75-535.937)/87.5 = 4.375

MR = (1148.4375-918.75)/87.5 = 2.625

MR = (1225-1148.4375)/87.5 = 0.875

MR = (1148.4375-1225)/87.5 = -0.875

MR = (918.75-1148.4375)/87.5 = -2.625

MR = (535.9375-918.75)/87.5 = -4.375

MR = (0-535.9375)/87.5 = -6.125

Each company in its strategy is focused on obtaining maximum profits or minimizing losses. An accurate guideline for maximizing profits or minimizing losses, regardless of whether the company operates in conditions of perfection or imperfect competition is the volume of production at which marginal costs equal marginal revenue, i.e.

where TCi+1, TCi are the total expenses of the company, respectively, for the i-th and (i+1)-th production volumes.

TCi=TVCi + TFCi(19)

Total fixed costs in short term do not change with an increase or decrease in output. Their presence is associated with the use of constant factors of production. The total fixed costs of the company will be determined by the formula

TFC = g × ea × P*07 × Q*07,(20)

where g is a variable equal to 0.13,

e is the base of the natural logarithm,

a - degree of natural logarithm equal to 1.5,

P*07, Q*07 - equilibrium price and quantity of goods (from part 2).

TFC = 0.13 × e1.5 × 0.9167 × 250 = 0.17 × 3.0042 × 0.9167 × 250 =

Average fixed costs, i.e. fixed costs per unit of production are calculated for each i-th volume of production using the formula

AFCi = TFC / Qi(21)

AFC = 145.64815/87.5 = 1.6646

AFC = 145.64815/175 = 0.8323

AFC = 145.64815/262.5 = 0.55485

AFC = 145.64815/350 = 0.4161

AFC = 145.64815/437.5 = 0.33291

AFC = 145.64815/525 = 0.2774

AFC = 145.64815/612.5 = 0.2378

Total variable costs TVC change as output increases or decreases. Average variable costs, i.e. Variable costs per unit of output are also not constant. According to the law of diminishing returns, the marginal productivity of additional variable inputs added to fixed fixed factors of production decreases starting from a certain level of output.

We will calculate average variable costs (AVC) for different (i-th) production volumes using the formulas:

AVC1 = 0.374 × P1 × e-1.17

AVC2 = 0.394 × P2 × e-1.07

AVC3 = 0.421 × P3 × e-0.94

AVC4 = 0.481 × P4 × e-0.81(22)

AVC5 = 0.592 × P5 × e-0.66

AVC6 = 0.784 × P6 × e-0.5

AVC7 = 1.500 × P7 × e-0.35

AVC1 = 0.374 × 6.125 × 0.3104 = 0.7111

AVC2 = 0.394 × 5.25 × 0.3430 = 0.7095

AVC3 = 0.421 × 4.375 × 0.3906 = 0.7194

AVC4 = 0.481 × 3.5 × 0.4449 = 0.7490

AVC5 = 0.592 × 2.625 × 0.5169 = 0.8033

AVC6 = 0.784 × 1.75 × 0.6065 = 0.8321

AVC7 = 1.500 × 0.875 × 0.7047 = 0.9249

Total variable costs are calculated using the formula

TVC = AVCi × Qi(23)

TVC1 = AVC1 × Q1 = 0.7111 ∙ 87.5 = 62.22125

TVC2 = AVC2 × Q2 = 0.7095 ∙ 175 = 124.1625

TVC3 = AVC3 × Q3 = 0.7194 ∙ 262.5 = 188.8425

TVC4 = AVC4 × Q4 = 0.7490 ∙ 350 = 262.15

TVC5 = AVC5 × Q5 = 0.8033 ∙ 437.5 = 351.44375

TVC6 = AVC6 × Q6 = 0.8321 ∙ 525 = 436.8525

TVC7 = AVC7 × Q7 = 0.9249 ∙ 612.5 = 566.50125

A firm's total costs are made up of total variable costs (TVC) and total fixed costs (TFC).

TCi = TVCi + TFCi

TC1 = TVC1 + TFC = 62.22125 + 145.64815= 207.8694

TC2 = TVC2 + TFC = 124.1625 + 145.64815= 269.8107

TC3 = TVC3 + TFC = 188.8425 + 145.64815= 334.4907

TC4 = TVC4 + TFC = 262.15 + 145.64815= 407.79815

TC5 = TVC5 + TFC = 351.44375 + 145.64815= 497.0919

TC6 = TVC6 + TFC = 436.8525 + 145.64815= 582.5007

TC7 = TVC7 + TFC = 566.50125 + 145.64815= 712.1494

Having determined the total costs of the company at various production volumes, we can calculate the marginal costs:

MC is marginal cost, i.e. An increase in total costs associated with an increase in finished product output by an additional unit:

Having determined the total costs of the company for various volumes of production, we can calculate the marginal costs, as well as the amount of profit INCi for each volume of production and the average costs ACi.

ACi = AVCi + AFCi(24)

AC1 = AVC1 + AFC1 = 0.7111 + 1.6646= 2.3756

AC2 = AVC2 + AFC2 = 0.7095 + 0.8323 = 1.5418

AC3 = AVC3 + AFC3 = 0.7194 + 0.5549= 1.2743

AC4 = AVC4 + AFC4 = 0.7490 + 0.4161= 1.1631

AC5 = AVC5 + AFC5 = 0.8033 + 0.33291= 1.1362

AC6 = AVC6 + AFC6 = 0.8321 + 0.2774= 1.1095

AC7 = AVC7 + AFC7 = 0.9249 + 0.2378= 1.1627

INCi = TRi – TCi

INC1 = TR1 – TC1 = 535.9375 – 207.8607= 328.0768

INC2 = TR2 – TC2 = 918.75 – 269.81065= 648.9394

INC3 = TR3 – TC3 = 1148.4375 – 334.4907= 813.9468

INC4 ​​= TR4 – TC4 = 1225 – 407.098= 817.9018

INC5 = TR5 – TC5 = 1148.4375 – 497.0919= 651.3456

INC6 = TR6 – TC6 = 918.75 – 582.5007= 336.2493

INC7 = TR7 – TC7 = 535.9375 – 712.1495= -176.212

We will enter all calculated indicators in Table 6.

Table 2 Profit calculation.

Indicators		Volume of production
Number of products, Qi, units.
Price, Pi, den. units
Gross revenue, TRi, den. units
Coeff. prices elastic demand, Edi
Fixed costs	Average AFCi, monetary units
	General TFCi, monetary units
Variable costs	Average AVCi, den. units
	General TVCi, den. ed
Gross costs TCi, den. ed
Profit INCi, den. units
Marginal costs MC, den. units
Marginal income MR, den. units

2. Based on the indicators, we will construct two graphs. On the first graph (Fig. 6) we depict the curves of demand, marginal costs, average constants, average variable and average costs, as well as marginal revenue.

In the second graph (Fig. 7) we depict the revenue and total cost curves.

To identify patterns in changes in total revenue, we calculate the elasticity of demand at each point of direct demand corresponding to the i-th production volume (i = 1.7)

Ed = - 100∙6.125/(700 – 100∙6.125) = -7

Ed = -100∙5.25/(700 – 100∙5.25) = -3

Ed = -100∙4.375/(700 – 100∙4.375) = -1.7

Ed = -100∙3.5/(700 – 100∙3.5) = -1

Ed = -100∙2.625/(700 – 100∙2.625) = -0.6

Ed = -100∙1.75/(700 – 100∙1.75) = -0.3

Ed = -100∙0.875/(700 – 100∙0.875) = -0.1

By analyzing the calculation results and the resulting graphs, we determine the optimal production volume (Qopt) and the price at which an imperfect competitor maximizes its profit (Popt). The optimal volume will be in which the elasticity coefficient is almost equal to -1. This point corresponds to a volume equal to 350 units. If you analyze the graph, you can come to the same conclusions. Because on the graph, the point of intersection of the marginal cost and marginal revenue curves (MC = MR) corresponds to point c, at which the volume is 350 units, and it will be optimal. The price corresponding to this volume is 3.5 monetary units, i.e. Qopt = 350 units, Popt = 3.5 monetary units. Also at this point the rule P is satisfied

The maximum profit is 818 den. units

The optimal production volume is 350 units.

The equilibrium production volume is 586.25 units, with an equilibrium price equal to 1.2 den. units.

From here, we find that the optimal production volume of the company is 350 units. The maximum profit for a given production volume is 818 monetary units.

But the equilibrium production volume is 586.25 units, with an equilibrium price of 1.2 monetary units.

Therefore, the company needs to reduce production. This means that this enterprise must take measures to reduce the efficiency of the production process. It should strive to obtain greater profits and break even.

3. In the short term, in conditions of perfect competition, the company will continue its activities, minimizing losses, because P* AVC.

4. The excess of the price of an imperfect competitor over the equilibrium price prevailing in the market leads to a decrease in consumer surplus. Some of this reduction turns into profit for the manufacturer. In Figure 6, this is the area of ​​rectangle A, which can be calculated as

SА = (Popt – P*) × Qopt(26)

SА = (3.5 –1.2) × 350 = 805

And the rest is a loss of “dead weight”, since it does not go to anyone. The amount of “dead weight” loss is determined by the area of ​​figure B and can be calculated as

SB = (Popt – P*) × (Q* - Qopt)/2(27)

SB = (3.5 –1.2) × (586.25 - 350)/2 = 271.7

Comparison of marginal revenue and marginal costs (Fig. 6)

Comparison of total revenue and total costs (Fig. 7)

Conclusion

In this work, an analysis of the dairy products market was carried out.

The work analyzed changes in the volume of production and consumption of goods, changes in the structure of exports and imports of goods, and changes in the price of goods. The technological changes taking place in the industry were reviewed.

Theoretical knowledge was also consolidated on the topics “Theory of Supply and Demand”, “Elasticity of Demand and Supply”, “Government Regulation of the Market”, “Production of Economic Goods”. There was a practical acquaintance with the methods of economic analysis, acquisition of skills for independent analysis of economic reality.

Bibliography

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3. Nureyev R.M. Microeconomics course. Textbook for universities. - M.: Norma, 2007. - 576 p.

4. Goroshchenko L.G. Russian market of dairy products // Dairy industry. – 2007. - No. 3. – P.10-12.

5. Karamanovich V. Practice of choosing systems for obtaining ice water for dairy enterprises // Dairy industry. – 2007. - No. 8. – P.64-65.

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8. Seregin S.N. Dairy industry 2006 – from stabilization to growth through innovative technologies // Dairy industry. – 2007. - No. 3. – P.5-8.

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