Anti-crisis management educational and methodological manual. Current bibliography: "Anti-crisis management"
Theoretical material for the course
1. Causes of crises and their role in the socio-economic development of society
1.1 Causes and typology of crises
A crisis is a period of acute difficulty, aggravation of contradictions in the process of socio-economic development of society.
The causes of the crisis can be: 1) objective, related to the outdated material and technical base and the need to restructure the economy; 2) subjective, caused by errors in management; 3) natural, manifested as a result of floods, earthquakes, climatic anomalies.
The causes of the crisis can also be divided into external and internal. External ones are related to trends in the development of the world economy, the political situation in the country, the presence competition, and internal reasons – with a risky economic strategy firms, shortcomings in the organization of production, errors in management, internal conflicts, illiterate investment policy.
The consequences of a crisis can be the improvement of the situation, the destruction of a conflict process or a company, as well as the emergence of a new crisis. The consequences of a crisis can lead to dramatic changes or a gentle, long-lasting and gradual recovery. And post-crisis changes in the development of a company can be long-term and short-term, qualitative and quantitative, reversible and irreversible.
Since crises differ in causes, consequences and essence, it is necessary to classify them, which will allow us to develop a mechanism for managing them. Based on the scale of manifestation, we can distinguish general crises that cover the entire socio-economic system, as well as local ones that affect only part of it. Based on their issues, they are divided into macro-crises, which have a large scale and volume of problems, and micro-crises, which cover only a separate problem.
According to the specific manifestations, the following crises are distinguished.
1. Economic, characterizing an acute exacerbation financial condition firms or society as a whole.
2. Social, exacerbating the contradictions of different social groups: workers and employers, personnel and managers, specialists of various professions. Within the framework of a social crisis, there is a political one, which characterizes the crisis of power and the political structure of society.
3. Organizational, manifested as a crisis of separation and integration of activities, distribution of functions, separation of branches or subsidiaries.
4. Psychological, characterized by instability of the socio-psychological climate of society or an individual team. It manifests itself in the form of dissatisfaction with work, legal protection and social status, and a feeling of dissatisfaction in the future.
5. Technological, exacerbating the contradictions between trends, opportunities and consequences of scientific and technological progress (for example, the use of nuclear energy). This may be a crisis of technological incompatibility of products or a crisis of rejection of new technological solutions in conditions of a clearly expressed need for new technologies.
6. Natural, caused by disturbances in the natural conditions of human activity (floods, earthquakes). Its variety is an environmental crisis that occurs when natural conditions caused by human activity. This is environmental pollution, neglect of the requirements of the laws of natural balance, the emergence of dangerous technologies, and depletion of resources.
Based on the nature of their manifestation, crises can be classified according to the following criteria:
1. Predictable and unexpected. The first act as a stage of development, they can be predicted and are caused by objective reasons - the need for restructuring production, changing the structure of consumer interests under the influence of scientific and technological progress. Unexpected crises are often the result or gross mistakes in management, or any natural phenomena, or economic dependence. Within the framework of predictable crises, there is a cyclical crisis that occurs periodically and has known phases of its onset and course.
2. Explicit and hidden. The first ones occur noticeably and are easily detected. The latter act unnoticed and are therefore the most dangerous.
3.Deep and light. Deep, acute crises often lead to the destruction of various social structures economic system. Light, mild crises occur more consistently and painlessly, they are better manageable.
4. Prolonged and short-term. Protracted crises are painful and difficult. They are often the result of inability to manage crisis situations, a lack of understanding of the essence and nature of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.
1.2 Trends of emergence and resolution economic crises
The root cause of economic crises is the gap between the production and consumption of goods. Within the framework of a subsistence economy, there was a direct connection between production and consumption, so there were no conditions for economic crises. This opportunity arose and expanded with the development of commodity production and circulation. Within the framework of simple commodity production, the likelihood of crises could not turn into a necessity, since goods were sold in local markets and difficulties with their sale were local in nature and could not disrupt the sales process throughout society. After the market became a spontaneous regulator of commodity-money relations, the gap between production and consumption intensified, and economic crises became an objective pattern. The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the overproduction of goods in relation to effective demand, in the disruption of the process of reproduction of capital, in mass bankruptcies of companies, rising unemployment and other socio-economic shocks.
Economists interpret the causes of economic cycles and crises differently. Some associate them with scientific and technological progress, and the cycle duration - with the period during which fixed capital becomes obsolete. Others believe that crises are caused by the lack of correct proportions between industries and spontaneous actions of entrepreneurs. Still others see the nature of economic crises in excessive business investment, including from the state.
The economic cycle consists of 4 phases:
1. Crisis (recession), as a result of which there is a radical reduction in production volumes and business activity, falling prices, overstocking of the market, rising unemployment and a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies. At the same time, there are differences in the degree of negative impact of economic crises on individual areas of business. The decline in production in heavy industry is, as a rule, significantly greater than in light and Food Industry where goods are formed everyday needs. If in highly monopolized areas of business during a crisis, prices for manufactured products decrease slightly with a sharp reduction in production volumes, then in industries with low concentration of capital there is a significant drop in prices with a relatively small decrease in the volume of products sold. Thus, monopolistic and oligopolistic enterprises, relying on their economic power, are able to survive the crisis in a softer mode and with much less losses.
2. Depression (stagnation), which represents the phase (from six months to three years) of adaptation of economic life to new conditions and needs, the phase of finding a new balance. It is characterized by uncertainty and chaotic actions of entrepreneurs, reducing their risk in investments.
3.Revival, which represents the recovery phase. It is accompanied by the resumption of capital investment in business, an increase in prices and production volumes, employment and interest rates on loans. At the same time, the greatest growth is observed in the areas of the economy that form the means of production. Economic revival is associated with the emergence of new firms and ends with the achievement of pre-crisis levels in terms of macroeconomic indicators.
4. A rise in which the acceleration of economic development is manifested in the formation of a mass of new goods and new firms, a steady increase in investment, stock prices and lending rates, price levels and wages. And at the same time, the tension in bank balance sheets is increasing, inventory. A rise that takes the economy to a new level in its progressive development prepares the basis for a new, periodic crisis.
The initial symptom of the new crisis is a reduction in consumer demand, in particular caused by the replacement of worn-out equipment (previous purchases of raw materials, materials, spare parts are reduced), an increase in credit interest and the specific content of taxes, violation of the law of monetary circulation, and anti-entrepreneurial political decisions. All this can break the existing market equilibrium and cause another economic crisis.
As the nature of economic crises was studied, there was a convergence of scientific views regarding the cyclical nature of economic development. Firstly, cyclicality and its most destructive phase - the economic crisis - are recognized not so much as “evil”, but as a unique form of progressive development market economy. Moreover, cyclicality is carried out not in a circle, but in a spiral, which is recognized as a form of progressive development of society. Secondly, scientists and managers realized the possibility and necessity of research effective methods and smoothing agents negative consequences economic crises and cyclicality in general.
Economic crises are differentiated into periodic ones, which are repeated with a certain pattern and give rise to a new cycle, as well as irregular ones, including intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural.
An intermediate crisis does not start a new cycle, but interrupts it certain time during the recovery or revival phase. A partial crisis, unlike an intermediate one, does not cover the entire economy, but a specific area of activity (for example, a banking crisis). An industry crisis covers one of the sectors of the economy either due to the existing imbalance in its development, or in connection with its structural restructuring, or due to overproduction of products (for example, agricultural products). The structural crisis is caused by a violation of proportional development social production(energy, raw materials, food).
2.1 Controlled and uncontrollable processes of anti-crisis development
All processes occurring in the company are divided into controlled and uncontrollable. Controlled processes can be changed in a certain direction with conscious influence on them. Uncontrollable processes cannot be changed for one reason or another, or their direction and nature of manifestation can be influenced.
Inattention to those processes that can be controlled can contribute to a crisis situation. A crisis can also arise when company managers try to manage uncontrollable processes, when, in the absence of an anti-crisis management mechanism, attempts are made to implement it. In addition, this is accompanied by a waste of company resources.
Anti-crisis development is a controlled process of preventing or overcoming a crisis that meets the goals of the company and corresponds to the objective trends of its development.
The process of development of a company is accompanied by the increasing complexity of organizing production and management in it. The expansion of the range and functional purpose of goods, caused by the improvement of their production technology, leads to the complication of economic relations and the development of human needs. In this situation, anti-crisis management in its development should be ahead of the development of production. This will require the reconstruction of management, will lead to its complication in functional, organizational, motivational, informational terms, and will require the professionalization of management.
2.2 The need for crisis management
Crisis management is the activity of managers aimed at anticipating the danger of a crisis, analyzing its symptoms, measures to reduce the negative consequences of the crisis and using its consequences for subsequent development.
The need for crisis management is related to the problems of social development. For example, the emergence of crisis situations in the environment that are harmful to human health forces us to look for and find new means of crisis management, aimed at improving the technology of production processes. So, in nuclear energy crisis management is expressed in the need to improve professionalism technical staff, strengthening discipline, searching for new technologies.
All problems of crisis management can be differentiated into 4 groups:
1. Problems of recognizing pre-crisis situations. It is advisable for a company to promptly notice the onset of a crisis, detect its first signs, and understand its nature in order to build and put into operation an anti-crisis management mechanism in a timely manner.
2. Methodological problems of the life of an organization. In the process of solving them, the mission and goal of management are formed, the ways, means and methods of management in a crisis situation are determined. This group primarily includes economic problems associated with the search for additional resources and sources of financing when diversifying production.
3. Problems of crisis management technology. They include problems of forecasting crises and options for a company’s behavior in a crisis situation, problems of searching necessary information and development management decisions.
4. Problems of personnel selection, which always accompany crisis situations.
2.3 Signs and features of crisis management
The main provisions of crisis management can be summarized as follows: 1) crises can be foreseen, expected and caused, and therefore, it is necessary to prepare for them; 2) crisis management requires special approaches, special skills and knowledge; 3) crises can be mitigated, postponed, anticipated; 4) controllability of crisis processes allows minimizing their consequences.
The crisis management system should have the following properties: 1) flexibility and activity, which are most often characteristic of a matrix organizational management system; 2) motivation of enthusiasm, patience, confidence; 3) diversification of management, that is, the ability to modernize it in difficult situations; 4) reducing centralism to ensure timely response to emerging problems; 5) strengthening integration processes, allowing to concentrate efforts and more effectively use the company’s potential.
The functions of crisis management are activities that reflect the subject of management and determine its result. They answer the question: what needs to be done to manage successfully in the run-up to, process and consequences of a crisis. There are 6 functions of crisis management: 1) pre-crisis management; 2) management in times of crisis; 3) managing the processes of overcoming the crisis; 4) stabilization of unstable situations; 5) minimizing losses and missed opportunities; 6) timely decision making.
For anti-crisis management, perspective and the ability to choose and build a rational development strategy are of particular importance. The following main strategies of crisis management are distinguished: 1) preventing a crisis, preparing for its occurrence; 2) waiting for the maturity of the crisis to successfully solve the problems of overcoming it; 3) countering crisis phenomena, slowing down its processes; 4) stabilization of situations through the use of reserves and additional resources; 5) calculated risk; 6) consistent recovery from the crisis; 7) foreseeing and creating conditions for eliminating the consequences of the crisis.
The choice of one strategy or another is determined by the nature and depth of the crisis.
2.4 Effectiveness of crisis management
The development of crisis management should be accompanied by an increase in its effectiveness.
The effectiveness of crisis management is characterized by the degree to which the goals of mitigating, localizing or positively using the crisis are achieved in comparison with the resources spent on it.
Factors determining the effectiveness of crisis management:
1. Professionalism and the art of crisis management. Of particular importance are the efficiency and flexibility of management, which are manifested in quick and decisive actions, operational measures, adjustments to the management system depending on developing situations, and adaptation to crisis conditions. Therefore, for crisis management, it is especially important to conduct psychological testing of managers, to select individuals who are able to react sensitively to the approach of a crisis and manage in extreme situations.
2.Strategy and quality anti-crisis programs. When developing management decisions, you should pay attention to such qualitative parameters as completeness of the problem, specificity, timeliness, and organizational significance.
3.Scientific analysis of the situation, forecasting trends. First of all, this includes a crisis monitoring system, which represents specially organized actions to determine the likelihood and reality of a crisis and is necessary for its timely detection and recognition.
4. Corporate spirit of the staff, that is, understanding and acceptance by all employees of the organization’s goals, willingness to work selflessly to achieve them. This special kind integration of all business, socio-psychological and organizational relationships.
2.5 Diagnosis of crises in management processes
Diagnostics is a set of methodological procedures for determining the state of economic processes in a particular enterprise, industry or economy as a whole. The purpose of diagnostics is to give a conclusion about the state of the research object both at the time of analysis and in the future, simultaneously identifying weak points in it. Understanding and taking into account diagnostic data will allow the company to develop correct and competent economic policy, strategy and tactics. The tasks of diagnostics are to determine measures aimed at debugging the work of all constituent elements of the anti-crisis system and methods for their implementation.
Basic requirements for diagnostics:
1) based on primary sources; 2) objectivity; 3) accuracy.
Methods for diagnosing a crisis: 1) analytical, which involves conducting research using statistical information, using comprehensive economic analysis; 2) expert, based on a generalization of assessments and information given by authoritative experts; 3) linear programming - a mathematical technique used to determine the best combination of resources and actions necessary to achieve an optimal result; 4) dynamic programming - a computational method for solving management problems of a certain structure, when the problem is presented as a multi-step decision-making process, which includes three stages: a) building a mathematical model, b) solving a management problem, c) analyzing and summarizing the results obtained.
The ability to use various diagnostic methods makes it possible to obtain a set of data and characteristics regarding the object being diagnosed, to draw conclusions regarding its economic and social development. Consider, for example, the characteristics of the development cycle of an economic system. The crisis is characterized by rising unemployment, inflation, a decline in production volumes, and a decline in the level of well-being of the population. Depression is characterized by minimal production, no rise in prices, low level people's lives. Signs of the next phase – revival – are growth in production volumes, employment and income. Finally, the last phase - recovery - is associated with the absence of unemployment, full utilization of production capacity, an increase in the level of gross domestic product relative to the beginning of the cycle, and an increase in people's living standards.
2.6 Strategy and tactics in crisis management
In crisis management, management strategy is critical. At the same time, the crisis management strategy focuses on finding ways out of the economic crisis, which are directly related to eliminating the causes that contribute to its occurrence.
The development of an anti-crisis management strategy includes 4 stages. At the first stage, a timely, comprehensive and accurate diagnosis of the company’s condition is carried out. First of all, it is necessary to study the external environment of the enterprise, which involves: 1) analysis of the macro environment, taking into account the political, economic, social and technological environment; 2) analysis of the competitive environment according to its five main components: buyers, suppliers, existing competitors, potential competitors, substitute products.
The information obtained about the external environment should be systematized and, on this basis, used in modeling possible situations by creating scripts. The latter will allow the company to highlight the most important factors external environment, put them under direct control in order to eliminate the existing danger or realize the emerging opportunity. A scenario is a description of trends that may appear in a particular area of the economy in the future.
Along with analyzing the external environment, the company must determine its real capacity. When analyzing a company's strategy, managers should concentrate on 5 points: 1) the effectiveness of the current strategy, which allows one to identify the company's place among competitors, the market capacity and its segments that enterprises are targeting, the effectiveness of production, financial, marketing policy; 2) strong and weak sides, opportunities and threats for the company; 3) competitiveness of manufactured products; 4) assessment of the strength of the enterprise’s competitive position; 5) identifying the reasons contributing to the crisis in the enterprise.
The second stage of the strategic anti-crisis planning is to adjust the mission and system of goals of the enterprise. A well-crafted mission that is understood and believed in can be a powerful incentive to change strategy. It includes the following: 1) proclamation of beliefs and values; 2) the types of products or services that the enterprise will sell; 3) markets in which the company will operate. At the same time, methods of entering the market, technologies used by the company, and policies for the development and financing of the enterprise are being worked out.
If a mission is a vision of what an enterprise should be like in the future, then a system of goals is desired results, corresponding to the company's development strategy. Goals are the starting point of systems strategic planning, motivation and control used in the enterprise. Long-term goals allow managers to evaluate the impact of current decisions on long-term performance. Short-term goals determine the speed of development of the company, the level of its performance indicators and the results that need to be achieved in the near future.
At the third stage of the anti-crisis strategy, tactical measures are formed to overcome the economic crisis, which can be the following: reduction of production costs, divisions and personnel of the company, reduction of production and sales volumes, activation marketing research, increasing product prices, identifying and using internal reserves, modernization, obtaining loans, strengthening discipline.
The last stage of the anti-crisis strategic management is to evaluate and control the implementation of the strategy. It is aimed at identifying the extent to which the implementation of the strategy leads to the achievement of the enterprise's goals.
3. Bankruptcy and liquidation of the enterprise
3.1 Diagnosis of bankruptcy
According to Federal law on insolvency (bankruptcy) dated 01/08/1998 bankruptcy is the inability of the debtor to fully satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations and to fulfill the obligation to pay obligatory payments, recognized by an arbitration court or declared by the debtor.
A sign of bankruptcy is the inability of a company to satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations within three months from the date of their fulfillment.
In this case, the current payments of the debtor company are suspended and, in anticipation of its bankruptcy, it can apply to the arbitration court. A company is considered bankrupt if it is recognized as insolvent by an arbitration court or if it officially declares bankruptcy and liquidation, which involves bankruptcy proceedings.
The law does not pursue the goal of mandatory liquidation of a company if there are signs of bankruptcy. If there are opportunities to restore the solvency of the enterprise, special reorganization procedures are provided, such as the introduction of external management of the debtor’s property.
An effective way to prevent possible bankruptcy is the systematic diagnosis by managers of the economic condition of the company.
Important place in the analysis financial situation enterprises are devoted to the study of solvency, liquidity of the company, and profit generation. The most popular types of profit include: 1) profit from the sale of goods (services), defined as the difference between the revenue received from the sale of products and its full cost; 2) gross, including profit from sales and depreciation of fixed assets; 3) balance sheet, determined by increasing profit from sales by non-operating assets (income) and decreasing by non-operating liabilities (expenses); 4) net, calculated by subtracting taxes from the balance sheet profit.
The solvency of a firm is its ability to meet its external obligations using its assets. A firm's liquidity reflects its ability to pay upcoming debts on time or its ability to convert its assets into cash to pay debts.
Indicators of the financial position of the enterprise include: 1. The break-even point (norm) is the minimum size of the batch of products at which self-sufficiency is achieved, that is, equality between revenue products sold and its cost. Further growth in sales volumes leads to profits.
2. Solvency ratio, determined by the ratio of equity capital to total liabilities, expressed as a percentage, and measures financial risk, that is, the likelihood of bankruptcy.
3. Total liquidity ratio, determined by the ratio working capital in cash and short-term liabilities.
4. Coverage ratio, determined by the ratio of all current assets and short-term liabilities. It indicates the extent to which the company's short-term debt is covered by its current assets.
3.2 Role and activities of the arbitration court
Bankruptcy cases are considered by the arbitration court at the location of the debtor enterprise if the claims against the debtor exceed 500 minimum wages.
Depending on the circumstances of the case, the arbitration court: 1) decides to reject the application of the creditor or debtor if the actual solvency of the latter is revealed and the creditors’ claims can be satisfied; 2) suspends bankruptcy proceedings of a company if it is possible to restore its solvency through reorganization procedures and establishes external management of the debtor’s property; 3) declares the company bankrupt and opens bankruptcy proceedings for its forced liquidation, if the insolvency is confirmed and there is no real possibility of further functioning of the enterprise.
External management of the debtor's property is carried out by an external manager appointed by the arbitration court in order to restore the solvency of the company and continue its activities. The external manager carries out all activities according to the plan approved by the meeting of creditors. For the period of external administration (up to 12 months, but can be extended by an arbitration court to 18 months), there is a moratorium on satisfying creditors’ claims against the debtor. The external manager's remuneration is set by creditors and approved by the arbitration court. External administration of the debtor's property ends either with the termination of the company's insolvency proceedings, if the goal of external administration is achieved, or with a decision to declare the debtor bankrupt and open bankruptcy proceedings.
3.3 Reorganization of enterprises
crisis management bankruptcy risk
An important reorganization measure for the external management of the debtor's property is reorganization. It consists in the fact that the debtor company is provided financial aid in an amount sufficient to repay monetary obligations and mandatory payments, as well as restore its solvency. Reorganization of an enterprise can be carried out in three cases: 1) before creditors initiate bankruptcy proceedings, if the company manages to independently obtain external assistance to improve its economic situation; 2) if the decision on rehabilitation is made by the arbitration court at the proposal of creditors; 3) by decision of the arbitration court on the statement of the debtor company about its insolvency, if it simultaneously convincingly and reasonably proposes the conditions for its rehabilitation.
Depending on the depth of the crisis and the conditions for providing external assistance to the company, two types of reorganization are distinguished:
1. Reorganization of an enterprise in order to eliminate its insolvency without changing its status legal entity. Such reorganization provides for the following forms: a) debt repayment state enterprise at the expense of the budget; b) repayment of the company’s debt through a loan from the bank servicing the debtor after a thorough audit of the latter’s activities; c) transfer of debt to the account of another company that wished to participate in the debtor’s rehabilitation; d) issue of bonds guaranteed by the sanatorium by the bank servicing the debtor.
2. Reorganization of an enterprise with a change in the status of a legal entity. This form of reorganization is called the reorganization of an enterprise and involves a system of measures related to the adjustment of its organizational and legal form of activity (merger, acquisition, division, transformation into another form of business, lease, privatization). Undoubtedly, it is caused by the deeper crisis state of the company.
Development of a rehabilitation project involves studying the financial and economic condition of the debtor and identifying the reasons that determined it, forming the purpose and methods of rehabilitation, a rehabilitation plan highlighting priority measures for financial recovery, and calculating the effectiveness of the project. At the same time, the basis for choosing one or another method of rehabilitation is the calculation of their effectiveness, determined by the ratio of the expected results and the costs of carrying out the rehabilitation. Maximum term rehabilitation period established by the arbitration court is 18 months.
3.4 Liquidation of the enterprise
A company is declared bankrupt if measures taken in the process of its rehabilitation do not lead to the expected results. By decision of the arbitration court, a liquidation commission is created, which opens bankruptcy proceedings, appoints a bankruptcy trustee and monitors his activities in satisfying creditors' claims.
The bankruptcy liquidation process includes: 1) valuation of the company's property both at book value and at market value; 2) determination of the liquidation estate (the market value of the property minus the seizure provided for by law); 3) choice of the most effective forms property sales; 4) satisfaction of creditors’ claims in a certain order; 5) drawing up a liquidation balance sheet after satisfying all creditors’ claims and submitting it to the arbitration court.
If, based on the results of the balance sheet, there is no property left, the arbitration court makes a decision to liquidate the enterprise, and if the property remains after satisfying the claims of creditors, then the company is considered debt-free and can continue its business. entrepreneurial activity.
From the moment of commencement of bankruptcy proceedings, alienation of the debtor's property and repayment of his obligations is not allowed, except in cases provided for by law. The purpose of bankruptcy proceedings: 1) proportionate satisfaction of all claims of creditors; 2) declaring the enterprise debt-free; 3) protecting warring parties from illegal actions against each other.
The bankruptcy trustee, comparing the assets and debt of the debtor, determines the bankruptcy estate and sells the property.
The law protects liens. It is established that payments to creditors to mortgagees are not suspended upon the opening of bankruptcy proceedings; the property that is the subject of the pledge is not included in the bankruptcy estate; obligations secured by a pledge are repaid out of competition from the debtor's property. The bankruptcy estate, out of turn, covers the costs associated with bankruptcy proceedings and the continuation of the functioning of the debtor company.
To satisfy claims against a bankrupt, the following priority is established: 1) reimbursement of expenses of the arbitration court, liquidation commission, bankruptcy proceedings, creditors' claims secured by collateral; 2) obligations to the company’s employees; 3) repayment of debts on taxes and payments to the budget, insurance and pension funds; 4) claims of creditors not secured by collateral.
Claims of creditors not satisfied due to insufficient bankruptcy estate are considered extinguished. Claims not recognized by the bankruptcy trustees are also considered extinguished if the creditors do not challenge this in the arbitration court or if this court itself has recognized the creditors’ claims as unfounded.
4. Key Factors crisis management
4.1 Risk management
A risk arises if, when carrying out any economic event It is possible to use alternative approaches with a known probability of successful consequences of each of them. Risks and uncertainty are important attributes of the market method of economic management. Uncertainty is seen as a condition of a situation in which the probability of a potential outcome cannot be assessed. The concept of risk in the economic sense covers the amplitude of fluctuations, on the one hand, losses, the probability of which is associated with the presence of uncertainty (lack of information, its unreliability), and on the other hand, benefits (profits), which can only be obtained through actions associated with risk.
Risk level is the ratio of the amount of possible damage to the costs of preparing and implementing a risk solution. A manager must be able to take risks, that is, in a balanced manner, without exaggerating the dangers of achieving the intended goals, naturally, while respecting the boundaries of the legitimacy of the risk. He must compare the expected economic benefits and possible losses due to risky actions.
The stages of the process of developing and implementing risk decisions include: 1) information analysis, containing monitoring of external and internal environment, identifying new sources of risk and adjusting known factors; 2) diagnosis of the situation, where the main emphasis is on taking into account the reasons causing changes in risk, their ranking and assessment of losses (benefits) under certain parameters of the situation; 3) development of solution options with consideration of possible negative manifestations of risk for each of them; 4) adoption, organization and implementation of risk decisions.
The main means of influence in risk management: 1) management strategy - a policy that ensures the legality and admissibility of a specific type of risk; 2) criteria for choosing a risk solution, namely the development of risk limits, the dynamics of losses (increases) depending on sales volumes, costs, price changes, inflation; 3) development of ways to minimize losses, compensate for the negative consequences of risk decisions, insurance and other possibilities for protection against risk; 4) assessment of efficiency as the ratio of missed opportunities or losses to the costs of risk management.
4.2 Innovation and investment policy in anti-crisis management
Financial investments in the development of enterprises are divided into investments, innovations and capital investments. Innovative activity of an enterprise is a system of measures to use scientific, technical and intellectual potential in order to obtain a new product or technology for its production. There are two types of innovation: product and process. Product innovation is the creation of a new product. Process innovation is the development of new production methods and technologies.
Innovation process, being part life cycle products, includes various stages, starting with research and development of a new technical idea, technology and ending with bringing it to industrial implementation, obtaining a new product and its commercialization. The final stage innovation process associated with the development of large-scale production new products, requires reconstruction of production facilities, improvement of technology, personnel training, advertising activities. When making management decisions, one should take into account the degree of novelty of innovations, their potential, and the resource capabilities of the enterprise.
There are two types of innovation strategy: 1) adaptive, when an enterprise uses innovation as a response to changing market conditions in order to maintain its position in the market, that is, for the purpose of survival; 2) competitive, when innovation is used as an initial basis for achieving success, a means of obtaining competitive advantages.
An adaptive strategy is characterized by the concentration of efforts on partial changes, improvement of manufactured products, sales markets, and technology. But such a strategy deprives the company of the opportunity to see and use new production and market opportunities, finding new competitive advantages makes this strategy predictable for competitors. This problem usually faces enterprises that have a strong position in the industry and have not been able to abandon their usual approaches.
Competitive strategy is based on creativity and requires constant innovation and experimentation in ways of analyzing and solving problems. Creativity has two important aspects: 1) personal flexibility, that is, the ability to change one’s own behavior under the influence of reality; 2) desire to take risks.
Innovation infrastructure is understood as organizational, material, financial and credit, information base to create conditions for development innovation activity, technology transfer, commercialization of scientific and technical products.
Investments are funds invested in business activities in order to increase production efficiency. Investments are divided into the following types: 1) venture capital - issuing new shares in new types of activities associated with high risk; 2) direct lines – embedding in authorized capital firms for the purpose of making a profit and participating in the management of this enterprise; 3) portfolio – acquisition of securities and other assets of the company; 4) annuities – investments in insurance and pension funds.
An anti-crisis investment strategy should be aimed at overcoming negative phenomena in the Russian economy. In managing the investment process, it is necessary to rely on the following: 1) investment goals must be clearly formulated (creation of new enterprises, technical re-equipment, modernization of equipment); 2) it is necessary to select investment objects in accordance with the designated priorities. So, in modern conditions The predominant direction for using budget funds is the creation of relatively small projects with high speed capital turnover and quick returns.
In the process of making investment decisions, the following stages can be distinguished: 1) assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise and the possibilities of its participation in investment activities; 2) justification of the amount of investment and selection of sources of financing; 3) assessment of future cash flows from the implementation of the investment project.
4.3 Human factor of crisis management
In the theory and practice of conflict management in enterprises, two strategies are known: 1) conflict prevention; 2) conflict resolution. The conflict prevention strategy aims to create such production conditions and psychological atmosphere in the team, in which the occurrence of conflicts is minimized. The implementation of this strategy consists of carrying out various organizational events aimed at improving working conditions, creating a rational information system and management structures of the organization, developing reasonable remuneration systems for labor results, ensuring strict compliance with internal regulations.
The conflict resolution strategy aims to stop the confrontation between the parties and find an acceptable solution to the problem that has arisen. This area is associated with a clear explanation to employees of their rights, powers and responsibilities, coordination of the interests of various departments, and the development of an incentive system that eliminates conflicts of interests of different employees. Administrative methods conflict management involves directive intervention in its process.
Principles of crisis management:
1) consistency, implying a coordinated approach to personnel management (selection and placement of personnel, their retraining and selection); 2) equal opportunities for representatives of all social, class, national and gender groups in the selection and placement of personnel; 3) respect for a person and his dignity; 4) team unity; 5) legal and social security; 6) taking into account the long-term perspective of the company; 7) integration and cohesion of the team, based on educating the team in the spirit of corporate, joint responsibility, the understanding that everyone’s personal fate depends on the survival of the company, on the correctly chosen development strategy.
5. Government regulation crisis situations
In modern conditions of transition to market relations The object of state regulation is agricultural business. First of all, for these purposes the state must use such economic leverage as pricing. It is necessary to introduce collateral (guaranteed) prices for the main types of agricultural products and their use in cases where market prices fall below their level. This minimum price level for the manufacturer, guaranteed by the state, increases the protection of the commodity producer from market fluctuations, and, consequently, the stability of the industry. In addition, public services must regulate the parity between changes in deposit prices for agricultural products and wholesale prices on resources of agro-industrial production.
In market conditions, the state should not pursue a pricing policy, but a policy of regulating the food market, creating economic prerequisites for the development of agricultural production in the required volumes and proportions. Price should be a means, not an object, of government regulation. Naturally, it is necessary to adjust the structure food products, and therefore agricultural raw materials in accordance with the demands of the local population.
Therefore, we need Government program protection of domestic producers, which would ensure the sale of a certain part of their products. Essential agricultural raw materials and food products produced locally must be protected from competition from cheaper goods produced in other countries.
To summarize, it should be concluded that in Russia it is necessary to create an effective system for stimulating agricultural production, including tax, credit, and price systems. The state must take control of a vital sector of the economy - the Russian agro-industrial complex.
Parallel state support it is necessary to improve and master a rational mechanism for the functioning of agricultural enterprises, adapted to the market infrastructure, to introduce mutually beneficial, fair economic relations between these agricultural formations and enterprises in capital-producing and processing industries, and trading companies.
The use of pledged (guaranteed) prices for agricultural products should not be extended only within the limits of quotas established for farms for specific types of products, as recommended by some economists, which would inevitably lead to contractual relations between the producers themselves, meaning the possibility of repurchase of products by farms, “not those who have reached the quota volume from commodity producers whose production exceeded the quota.
Another important lever of government regulation is lending policy. First of all, it is necessary that the basic principles of lending are strictly followed: repayment, urgency, payment. We must not continue to make mistakes in banking policy that would lead (as happened in the 70-80s) to financial irresponsibility and indiscipline. It is necessary to understand that the practice of writing off any debts is in itself absurd. It is better to use the funds allocated for debt write-off to create more favorable conditions for the development of production, increase its efficiency, and on this basis ensure the likelihood of loan repayment.
The banking system is a two-tier structure: 1st tier – the central bank; Tier 2 – commercial, mortgage (loans secured by real estate), innovative (lending for innovations), managed by the central bank. Commercial Bank- This financial enterprise, which buys and sells money in order to generate income. Lending is the process of providing Money loan under certain conditions. A loan is a sum of money that is lent under certain conditions.
Through passive operations, the bank accumulates temporarily available funds. Liabilities include current accounts (deposits), time deposits, equity jar. Liability determines the bank's liabilities, since its depositors can make claims for such an amount. The bank's active operations are related to the placement of loans. The asset includes a minimum of cash, reserves, loans and discounted bills, government securities. The asset characterizes the financial capabilities of the bank. Balance means the equality of the bank's assets and liabilities.
The Central Bank performs the following functions: 1) bears full responsibility for the organization and state of the monetary system in the country; 2) as a strategy, creating conditions for non-inflationary economic development.
Finally, great importance in stimulating production is given to the taxation system. Here it is necessary not only to strengthen the agricultural sector with the help of preferential taxation, but also to protect final products The agro-industrial complex from external intervention in food products by tightening tax duties and quotas. The latter circumstance helps to increase the competitiveness of local producers, preserve jobs in the agricultural sector, and preserve foreign currency. Of course, the role of land tax in this system should change. Today, land tax is calculated based on the amount that the landowner can pay, but not on the excess income from the better location and higher fertility of the land.
It is necessary to move from using taxes as a means of forming budgets to primarily using them as a means of stimulating economic and investment activity. The amount of the tax should be such that, on the one hand, it does not push the producer to hide income and does not cause apathy towards improvement production process, and on the other hand, “filled” the state budget to a level that ensured the governance process in the country and the social protection of compatriots.
The historical experience of the United States and Western European countries shows that reducing tax rates to reasonable limits led in these countries to an increase in the absolute amount of funds received as taxes. This occurs due to the expansion of the tax base as a result of improved policies to stimulate production and, as a consequence, an increase in production volumes and income of commodity producers. In addition, the richer the society as a whole, the less funds the state requires for the social protection of citizens.
Varying interest rates by certain species taxes, the state either increases the flow of investment in production or restrains it (in a saturated market). Thus, progressive income taxation individuals with more modest deductions from profits (and according to existing legislation, profits directed to the development of production are not taxed at all) encourages commodity producers to direct funds to production, thereby withdrawing them from the tax base, and vice versa.
All taxes in Russia are divided into three levels: federal, regional (republican, regional) and local. Federal taxes include: value added tax, excise taxes, tax on transactions with securities, customs duties, payments for the use of natural resources, income tax, personal income tax, state duties, taxes on road funds, etc. Regional taxes include: property tax for enterprises, water fees for enterprises, etc. Local taxes include: advertising tax, land tax, property tax for individuals, trade fee, etc.
All of the listed taxes can be divided into direct and indirect according to the method of their collection. Direct taxes are directly levied on a specific taxpayer according to predetermined standards depending on the level of the tax base. Indirect taxes are not levied on a specific manufacturer, but are included in the cost of products and passed on to the consumer of this product (service). This primarily includes excise taxes and value added tax.
Crisis management - Textbook - Korotkova E.M. - 2003
Presents the modern concept crisis management an organization operating in a market economy from the standpoint of a fundamental approach to understanding crisis management. At the same time, the needs of the practical activities of a modern manager are not lost sight of. The textbook is fundamentally different from similar publications in that it examines the sources, causes and manifestations of crises in all the variety of interrelated trends in the development of an organization. Some problems of crisis management are considered here for the first time. For example, government regulation of crisis situations, crises in the system government controlled, the role of trade unions in anti-crisis management, etc. The textbook can be successfully used by students when preparing for the specialty “Anti-crisis management”, as well as other specialties in the direction of “Management”. It will be useful to graduate students, teachers and practical managers working in the difficult conditions of the economic crisis in our country.
UDC 338.24(075.8)
BBK 65.290-2ya73
ISBN 5-16-000156-5
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Introduction
Part one. CRISES IN TRENDS MACRO DEVELOPMENT AND MICRO DEVELOPMENT
Chapter 1. CRISES IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
1.1. The concept of crisis in socio-economic development and the reasons for its occurrence
1.2. Typology of crises
1.3. Signs of a crisis: recognizing and overcoming
1.4. Human factor of crisis management
Chapter 2. TRENDS IN THE ARISE AND RESOLUTION OF ECONOMIC ECONOMICS
CRISES
2.1. The essence and patterns of economic crises
2.2. Causes of economic crises
2.3. Phases of the cycle and their manifestation
2.4. Types of economic crises and their dynamics
Chapter 3. STATE REGULATION OF CRISIS SITUATIONS
3.1. Analytical basis for state regulation of crisis situations
3.2. The role of the state in anti-crisis management
3.3. Types of government regulation of crisis situations
Chapter 4. CRISES IN THE SYSTEM OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
4.1. Mechanism state power and crises of the management system
4.2. Causes and consequences of governance crises
4.3. Systemic crisis of public administration
4.4. Overcoming public administration crises
4.5. Reforms as a means of crisis management
Chapter 5. CRISES IN ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
5.1. General and specific, external and internal factors risky development of the organization
5.2. The emergence of crises in the organization
5.3. Trends in cyclical development of an organization
5.4. The danger and likelihood of crises in the cyclical development trends of an organization
Part two. POSSIBILITY, NECESSITY AND CONTENT OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chapter 6. MAIN FEATURES OF ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
6.1. Controlled and uncontrollable processes of anti-crisis development
6.2. Possibility, necessity and problems of crisis management
6.3. Signs and features of crisis management
6.4. Effectiveness of crisis management
Chapter 7. DIAGNOSTICS OF CRISES IN MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
7.1. Basic diagnostic parameters
7.2. Stages of crisis diagnosis
7.3. Methods for diagnosing a crisis
7.4. Diagnostic information
7.5. Diagnosis of enterprise bankruptcy
Chapter 8. MARKETING IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
8.1. Goals and functions of marketing in crisis management
8.2. Formation marketing strategies in crisis management and their classification
8.3. Using marketing tools in crisis management
Chapter 9 STRATEGY AND TACTICS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
9.1. The role of strategy in crisis management
9.2. Development of an anti-crisis strategy for the organization
9.3. Implementation of the chosen anti-crisis strategy
9.4. Organization of the implementation of the anti-crisis strategy
Chapter 10. BANKRUPTCY AND LIQUIDATION OF AN ORGANIZATION (ENTERPRISE)
10.1. Signs and procedure for establishing bankruptcy of an enterprise
10.2. Role and activities of the arbitration court
10.Z. Types and procedure for implementing reorganization procedures
10.4. Liquidation of bankrupt enterprises
10.5. Reorganization and liquidation of the cooperative
Part three. KEY FACTORS OF ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chapter 11. RISKS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
11.1. Nature and classification of management risks
11.2. Anti-crisis risk management
11.3. Methods for assessing regional investment risk
Chapter 12. INNOVATIONS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
12.1. Innovation process as a factor in crisis management
12.2. Innovative potential of the enterprise, its role in crisis management
12.3. State innovation strategy for anti-crisis development
12.4. Formation of innovative infrastructures as a condition for overcoming the crisis
12.5. Innovative projects, criteria for their selection
Chapter 13. INVESTMENT POLICY IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
13.1. Characteristics of the state of the investment process as a basis for making investment decisions in crisis management
13.2. Sources of investment financing in conditions of limited financial resources
13.3. Assessing the investment attractiveness of enterprises
13.4. Assessment methods investment projects
Chapter 14. ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES
14.1. Concept of crisis management technology
14.2. General technology system crisis management process
14.3. Technology for developing managerial solutions in crisis management
14.4. Parameters for monitoring crisis situations in anti-crisis technology
management
Part four. THE HUMAN FACTOR OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chapter 15. MECHANISMS OF CONFLICTOLOGY IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
15.1. Conflicts in the development of an organization
15.2. Causes of conflicts and their role in crisis management
15.3. Procedural characteristics of the conflict
15.4. Anti-crisis conflict management
Chapter 16. ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL PERSONNEL
16.1. Anti-crisis characteristics of personnel management
16.2. Anti-crisis personnel management system
16.3. Anti-crisis policy in personnel management
16.4. Principles of anti-crisis personnel management
Chapter 17. ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT MANAGER
17.1. Purpose and scope of activity of a manager in crisis management
17.2. Crisis management manager model
17.3. Role structure of a manager's activity in crisis management
Part five. TRADE UNIONS AND FOREIGN EXPERIENCE OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chapter 18. ROLE OF TRADE UNIONS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
18.1. Goals and principles trade union movement and its role in the anti-crisis
management
18.2. Social partnership in crisis management
18.3. Regulation of social and labor relations in anti-crisis management processes
18.4. Social conflicts and negotiations with trade unions
18.5. The main directions of action of trade unions in times of crisis
Chapter 19. EXPERIENCE OF ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN COUNTRIES WITH DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES
19.1. "New Deal" F.D. Roosevelt - a program to bring the American economy out of crisis
19.2. Anti-crisis orientation of L. Erhard's reforms
19.3. The activities of Lee Iacocca in the largest American corporation Chrysler
19.4. Anti-crisis aspects of public administration in countries with developed market economies
Conclusion
Glossary
Applications
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Year of issue : 2005
Genre : economics, management
Publisher:"Dashkov and K"
Format: PDF
Quality : Scanned pages
Number of pages: 316
Description : Crisis management has become one of the most “popular” terms in Russian business life. However, its content is vague. The literature does not record any signs of differences between anti-crisis and conventional management. Attention, as a rule, is focused not on the “treatment” of the crisis, but on measures to prevent it and the bankruptcy mechanism. Since all management theory and practice is aimed at achieving this goal, the specific content of crisis management is unclear. It seems that the only justification for the existence of this term is government regulations that created the institution of crisis managers: crisis management is what crisis managers do. Anti-crisis management can and should find its “niche” in management theory and practice. It is only necessary to correctly determine its difference from control in normal mode. The path to this lies through clarifying the concept of “enterprise crisis”.
Objectively, a crisis is characterized by many interconnected situations that increase the complexity and risk of management. In this case, it is possible to postpone the crisis and its prevention, stabilize the crisis, escalate one into another, overcome the crisis, etc. Typical signs of a critical state of enterprises: profitability decreases, loans mainly begin to be used repayment of interest and repayment of previously taken loans (the company falls into a “credit trap”), “overlaps”, disruptions in deliveries to customers are increasingly occurring, management can hardly assess the objective state of the company, uncontrollability arises and any unfavorable incident can create a real threat of bankruptcy.
The answer to the question "what to do?" in general terms is well known: to attract personnel capable of working effectively in a transition economy, to use Foreign experience work in market conditions, invite professional consultants, etc., and comprehensively solve the entire tangle of problems of the enterprise, starting with improving the management system.
Chapter 1. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CRISIS PHENOMENA IN THE ECONOMY
1.1. Causes of economic crises
1.2. Classification of economic crises
1.3. State regulation of crisis situations in the economy
1.4. Financial and economic crises at the enterprise
Chapter 2. LEGAL ASPECTS OF ENTERPRISE BANKRUPTCY
2.1. Legal regulation Institute of Insolvency (Bankruptcy)
2.2. Observation
2.3. Financial recovery
2.4. External control
2.5. Bankruptcy proceedings
2.6. Settlement agreement
2.7. Other bankruptcy procedures for an enterprise
Chapter 3. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AN ENTERPRISE IN THE CRISIS STAGE
3.1. Basic financial indicators insolvent enterprise
3.2. Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise according to the methodology of the FSFO of the Russian Federation
3.3. Business planning for the financial recovery of an insolvent enterprise
3.4. The role of innovation in the process of forming an enterprise strategy
3.5. Using innovative potential in the financial recovery of an enterprise
3.6. Evaluation of innovative products according to the criterion "quality-cost"
Eyes 4. THE ROLE OF INVESTMENTS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE
4.1. Investments like most important factor sustainable development of the enterprise
4.2. Integral indicators of investment activity
4.3. Enterprise investment management
4.4. The role and place of investment projects in anti-crisis management
4.5. Methodology for forming an optimal portfolio of investments in real assets
Chapter 5. METHODOLOGICAL BASICS OF ANTI-CRISIS ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT
5.1. Method for calculating the Altman coefficient (Z-score)
5.2. Forecasting bankruptcy using the rating methodology G, V. Savitskaya
5.3. Diagnostics of the financial condition of the enterprise
- 5.3.1. Analysis and evaluation property status enterprises
- 5.3.2. Analysis and assessment of liquidity and solvency of the enterprise
- 5.3.3. Grade financial stability enterprises
- 5.4.1. Improving the enterprise bankruptcy diagnostic system
- 5.4.2. Crisis forecasting using quantitative methods
- 5.4.3. Mechanisms for stabilizing an enterprise under threat of bankruptcy
6.1. The need and trends of crisis management
6.2. Contents of crisis management
- 6.2.1. Diagnosis of crises
- 6.2.2. Planning in crisis management
6.4. Main directions of changes in anti-crisis management
6.5. Measures to overcome crisis state enterprises
6.6. Personnel in the crisis management system
Olga Nikolaevna Demchuk, Tatyana Alekseevna Efremova
Anti-crisis management: training manual
Preface
The importance and necessity of crisis management in Russia emerged as a result of the transitivity of its economy. There was not a single country or organization in the world that was not affected by crisis phenomena, often leading enterprises to bankruptcy. Consequently, government bodies and management of organizations are faced with the task of preventing crisis phenomena and ensuring the sustainable position of enterprises, because the bankruptcy of some organizations often causes a deterioration in the solvency of many others, giving rise to a domino effect. Solving problems of preventing crisis phenomena or mitigating their impact on the performance of organizations is possible with the help of a system of anti-crisis measures.
In this regard, the problem of crisis management for Russia, referred to abroad as “crisis management,” is relevant. The main goal of crisis management should be to ensure the competitiveness of the organization over a long period, which will allow it to receive sufficient funds to maintain reliable financial stability, pay obligations and further development.
The concept of “anti-crisis management” includes the management of an organization in conditions of the general economic crisis of the country, and the management of an organization in conditions of its financial insolvency, and management associated with the activities of arbitration managers within the framework of judicial procedures for the bankruptcy of an organization. Officially, an organization is bankrupt when it becomes insolvent, so managing the level of liquidity of an enterprise is the key task of a crisis manager. At the same time, timely diagnosis of the financial condition of the organization is necessary in order to prevent bankruptcy, and not just the use of crisis management when the prospects for bankruptcy of the organization become real and it must be brought out of the crisis.
Therefore, crisis management should be based on management based on constant monitoring of the organization’s activities in order to timely diagnose the reasons for the deterioration of the financial condition and determine ways to restore it, ensure the existing profitability of the activity, as well as the economic growth and development of the organization. To do this, any organization must have a crisis management manager, whose main function is to ensure its functioning, eliminate external influence and internal “interference,” and make unconventional management decisions.
Chapter 1. Anti-crisis management at the macro level of the economy
1.1. Crisis phenomena in the economy
1.1.1. The concept and essence of crises
Greek word a crisis means decision. Subsequently, the concept of crisis expanded and was applied to any abrupt transition, to all changes perceived as a break in continuity.
John M. Keynes: there is another one in the economic cycle characteristic, which our theory should explain, namely the phenomenon of crisis, i.e. a sudden and sharp, as a rule, change from an upward trend to a downward one, whereas in the reverse process such a sharp turn often does not occur. Authors of a popular textbook of the 70-80s. “Economics” S. Fischer, R. Dornbusch and R. Schmalenzi, based on the fact that the crisis is an integral part of the economic cycle, give the following definition: when imbalances of various nature occur in the economy, monetary and fiscal policies change, new products appear or new production methods, people's consumer preferences or their preferences when choosing a job change, prices for oil and other types of raw materials change, etc., aggregate demand curves shift, and production volumes and prices change in parallel with these shifts, i.e. imbalance of supply and demand. Continuing the work of S. Fisher and his group, modern popularizers of “Economics” K. McConnell and S. Brew limit themselves to this definition of an economy with a declining business activity: An unfavorable situation of economic stagnation occurs when gross investment is less than depreciation, i.e., when the economy consumes more capital in a year than it produces. Under these conditions, net investment will have a minus sign, and disinvestment will occur in the economy, i.e., a reduction in investment. As a result, incentives to replace worn-out capital, and even more so to create additional capital, are either very small or practically absent. Depreciation begins to exceed gross investment, resulting in capital at the end of the year being less than it was at the beginning of the year.
The team of authors of the book “Anticrisis Management” edited by E.M. Korotkova defines a crisis so: this is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in the socio-economic system, threatening its viability in environment or the growing danger of bankruptcy, liquidation of the organization, a turning point, mismatch of financial and other systems.
The socio-economic system in any of its forms, be it a state or an organization, has two trends in its existence: functioning and development. Operation- this is the preservation of oneself as a whole in its original form, achieving a goal based on the use and transformation of resources from the external environment, maintaining life activity. Development– constant transformation that strengthens life in a changing internal and external environment. Development characterizes changes in the organization, means of labor and in workers. The criterion for these changes is the emergence of a new quality that strengthens the stability and harmonious functioning of the socio-economic system. The facts of development are the nature of labor productivity and its increase, increased motivation for activity, and the emergence of new technologies.
Functioning and development are closely interconnected and reflect the unity of the main trends of the socio-economic system, which can be seen in its characteristics and indicators. The connection between functioning and development is dialectical in nature, which reflects the possibility and pattern of the onset and resolution of crises. Functioning restrains development and at the same time is its breeding ground; development destroys many functioning processes, but creates conditions for its implementation. Thus, a cyclical development trend arises, which reflects the periodic onset of crises.
Functions of crisis. Crises are progressive, no matter how painful they are. A crisis performs three most important functions in the dynamics of systems movement:
– a sharp weakening and elimination of outdated elements of the dominant system, which has already exhausted its potential;
– clearing the way for the approval of initially weak elements new system, future cycle;
– strength test and inheritance of those elements of the system that accumulate and pass into the future.
Dynamics of the crisis. The crisis is going through several stages in its dynamics:
– a latent, hidden period, when its prerequisites are maturing, but have not yet broken through;
– a period of collapse, a rapid aggravation of all contradictions, a sharp deterioration in all indicators of dynamics. During this period, elements gain strength, openly manifest themselves and enter into struggle. next system, representing the future;
- a period of mitigation of the crisis, creation of preconditions for overcoming it, transition to the phase of depression, ensuring a temporary balance between the system that has lost its former strength and the new one that has established itself and shown its strength.
1.1.2. Classification (typologization) of crises
Crises are different not only in their causes and consequences, but also in their very essence. Branched classification of crises associated with the differentiation of means and methods of managing them. Crises can be classified on several grounds, as shown in Fig. 1.
Rice. 1. Branched classification of crises
1) According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system, according to the differentiation of the problems of its development, groups are distinguished:
– economic crises reflect acute contradictions in the country’s economy or the economic state of an individual organization. These are crises in the production and sale of goods, relationships between economic agents, crises of non-payments, loss of competitive advantages, bankruptcy, etc. In the group of economic crises, we can separately highlight financial crises - these are crises monetary value economic processes;
