home Exchange rates Course work: Forecasting the development of education (using the example of the Novosibirsk region). Forecasting and planning of education and training of specialists Planning programming and forecasting of education development

Course work: Forecasting the development of education (using the example of the Novosibirsk region). Forecasting and planning of education and training of specialists Planning programming and forecasting of education development

FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATION

(using the example of the Novosibirsk region)

Introduction

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system

1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education using the example of the Novosibirsk region

2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

2.2 Main directions and tasks innovative development education of the Novosibirsk region

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

Conclusion

Glossary

Literature

Introduction

Russia is a federal state that unites subjects with their own specific level of socio-economic, cultural, and educational potential.

The combination of a unified federal policy aimed at improving the quality of education, focused on the knowledge economy, with regional models for its implementation makes it possible to ensure the integration of the interests of the state and regions.

Throughout the modern world, the importance of education as the most important factor in the formation of a new quality of economy and public life increases along with the growing influence of human capital.

The quality of life and educational potential of the population is largely determined by the level of education and culture of the inhabitants, their ideological orientation and spiritual development, and the ability to systematically receive and use the necessary information. These factors influence the degree of inclusion of people living in the region in regional, national and global human processes of progressive development. Education that meets the modern needs of society and the labor market allows each person to develop the ability to quickly adapt to modern socio-economic realities, and this becomes the most important condition for successful and sustainable development. The common values accepted by the majority, culture and moral principles, as well as the intellectual, infrastructural, industrial and information potential created in our region, act as criteria for the quality of life of all residents of the region.

The inherited weak responsiveness of the existing education system to external demands and the deepening shortage of qualified personnel are a consequence of the inadequacy of the existing mechanisms government controlled the tasks of creating favorable conditions for the development of the education system that meet the needs of the region. There is an obvious underdevelopment of mechanisms for attracting public professional organizations to solving topical issues of the formation and implementation of educational policy. Conditions have not been created for the development of independent forms of assessing the quality of education, and mechanisms for identifying, supporting and disseminating the best examples of innovative educational activities have not been developed. Understanding this, the pedagogical community realizes that education needs innovative development.

Based on the above, the purpose of this work is to predict the development of the education system using the example of the Novosibirsk region.

Consider the theoretical foundations of forecasting the development of education;

Develop a concept for the development of education;

Analyze and draw conclusions about the feasibility of social forecasting.

The object of the study is education as an integral structure.

The subject of study is forecasting the development of education as an integral system.

The research hypothesis is as follows: The use of forecasting will allow us to determine priorities in the development (formation) of the economy of the education system; management methods in this industry; and the direction of transformations corresponding to the economic, political and social changes occurring in society.

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

The role of education in solving social problems economic development Russia is:

creating conditions for increasing individual competitiveness;

development of the innovation sphere;

changing the structure of the economy in favor knowledge-intensive industries;

formation labor resources capable of reproducing and developing the material and intellectual potential of the country;

ensuring social and professional mobility;

the formation of a personnel elite of society based on the free development of the individual.

The socio-economic development of the country is influenced primarily by:

development modern system continuing education;

improving the quality of professional education;

ensuring the availability of high-quality general education;

increasing the investment attractiveness of the education sector.

Implementation of these directions public policy in the field of education will allow, in 2006-2010, to create conditions for increasing the competitiveness of the country, which is one of the goals of its socio-economic development, by solving a number of problems that hinder the development of education, such as:

inconsistency of the current legislation with the goals of intensive development of the education system;

excessive state regulation of financial and economic activities and labor relations in the field of education with a lack of funds, insufficient freedom to use them and with a formal expansion of opportunities to attract resources in the field of education;

lack of requirements for the content and quality of education;

inconsistency of resource provision in the education sector with the tasks of the country’s socio-economic development.

The organizational basis for the implementation of state policy in the field of education should be the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006 - 2010 (hereinafter referred to as the Program), ensuring the continuation of the modernization of Russian education. Measures taken in 2001 - 2005 by federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments as part of the implementation Federal program development of education, the Concept of modernization of Russian education for the period until 2010, other interdepartmental and departmental programs in the field of education, created the basis for the domestic education system to solve the following tasks aimed at strengthening its role in the socio-economic development of the country:

bringing the content of education, teaching technologies and methods for assessing the quality of education in accordance with the requirements modern society;

development of management mechanisms adequate to the tasks of development of the education system;

creation of economic mechanisms that ensure the investment attractiveness of education.

The solution to these problems is achieved by improving the regulatory legal framework, necessary personnel, information and logistical support for the education sector.

Managing education as a dynamic system requires predictive information about the prospects for its development in order to make the necessary management decisions. From the quality of forecast estimates, their effective use in the process of managing the education system, the quality of human (intellectual) capital and the efficiency of the economy as a whole depend. Forecasting for the purposes of managing the education system, considered as predicting future changes, is the selection of methods and approaches for the best use of accumulated knowledge about the development of education in the short, medium and long term.

In developed countries, forecasting the development of the education system is given great importance. The costs of research and development in this direction amount annually to about 2% of all allocations for science in the field of education. The benefits from research and development are more than 50 times higher than the costs associated with their implementation. Particularly important role should be given to forecasting the development of the education system under conditions economic crisis.

A forecast is a probabilistic assessment of future results and development paths education system, and also resources and organizational events necessary for its implementation. In the process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system, the following methodological principles must be observed:

1) systematicity, which requires considering the forecast object and the forecast background as a system of interconnections and relationships;

2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost;

3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object;

4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object;

5) specificity, which requires mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and features inherent only to the analyzed object.

Forecasting the education system should be considered as predicting future changes in its development in the future. The purpose of forecasting, which includes a set of methods and approaches, is to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about education to select priority areas for its scientific and innovative development.

Forecasting is a necessary element of state regulation of the education system, the development of promising strategic plans, national programs and projects. Making strategic decisions without taking into account forecast estimates of the consequences of their implementation deepens crisis phenomena in the economy and social life. In this regard, it should be noted that in Russia and other post-socialist countries, starting from the 90s of the twentieth century, work on forecasting and strategic planning The development of education has been practically curtailed, which has led to many mistakes and failures.

State regulation of the education system should be based on a combination of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning, programming, scientific, financial, logistics and personnel support. Each of these elements unified system performs functions unique to it; they act in a certain sequence.

Forecasting (long-term, medium-term and short-term) determines possible trends in the development of the education system under the influence of external and internal factors, evaluates the trajectories of its dynamics, the paths and consequences of influencing these trajectories, so that the optimal path of development can be chosen in the forecast period.

Strategic planning is focused on the implementation of the optimal path for the development of the education system based on selected priorities, determined on the basis of forecasting results, achieving set goals to ensure universal accessibility of education, improving its quality and competitiveness in the world market educational services.

Indicative planning ensures balanced development of the education economy in the implementation of strategic plans, national and territorial programs and projects based on a system of general development indicators and balances the most important species resources.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of education development.

Scientific support for the development of education should provide answers to the following basic questions: what directions scientific research and developments will be a priority in the next 15-50 years; when and in what areas of knowledge the dominant scientific theories exhaust their potential, new paradigms will be formed; what branches of science will shape the technical and technological appearance of education in the future; what strength should be the scientific and technical potential that ensures: accelerated development of science within the chosen priority areas, transition of education to an innovative path of development; what should be the optimal balance between basic research, applied research and development in the field of education; what and when clusters of complex radical innovations are needed to ensure sustainable development of education on an innovative basis; what is the expected effect from obtaining and applying the results of research and (or) scientific and technical activities.

Financial support for the development of the education system in accordance with strategic and indicative plans, national and territorial programs and projects should be carried out on the basis of a combination of budgetary support for science and innovation activity with a system of tax and customs benefits and other financial and credit regulators, to create the interest of private investors in the implementation of selected priorities, programs and projects.

Logistics support involves organizing work on the construction of new and major renovation existing educational institutions (EI) and medical and recreational infrastructure, providing the educational process with educational equipment and educational visual aids, information technology, textbooks, educational furniture, as well as on the basis of specially developed standards taking into account the specifics of the level of education.

Personnel support for the education system should be aimed at organizing professional training and retraining of personnel for educational institutions, including in the system of postgraduate professional education.

1.2 Long-term forecasting

Long-term forecasting should occupy a leading place in the system of state regulation of the education system. This is due to a number of factors.

Firstly, the education system as a macrosystem has inertia in its development. The ongoing changes, shifts in the technological structure of the economy, changes in generations of people and technology span several decades. Therefore, a sufficient horizon of vision is needed in order to assess the essence and trends of change and choose the optimal trajectory for the development of the education system. For example, in the 21st century, the transition to a post-industrial technological mode of production began in developed countries, the structure of the economy is being transformed, and noospheric thinking is being implemented. In the context of globalization, these trends have an impact on developing countries and, to a lesser extent, on third world countries. In addition, these objective trends are superimposed on the contradictions of the ongoing socio-economic policies in specific countries. For example, in Russia, the reforms carried out in the last two decades have changed the type of demographic development (trends towards depopulation and population aging are developing).

Secondly, hundreds of millions, or even billions, of rubles are invested in large national programs and projects in the field of education, and their implementation is delayed for decades. The correctness of the chosen strategic decision on programs and projects can only be assessed after 5 - 10 years. Strategic decisions made without foreseeing their consequences are costly. This is especially true for education. Examples include decisions on the transition to 12-year education at school, the mass liquidation of small rural schools, the financing of universities on the basis of State Financial Institutions, etc. Therefore, in order to prevent strategic mistakes and failures, it is necessary to make decisions based on forecast development assessments the sphere of education and its individual sectors.

Thirdly, the need for long-term forecasting especially increases in the context of modernization of the education system, when the chaotic nature and uncertainty of dynamics trajectories sharply increases.

Directions in methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system

Theoretical foundations, practical experience and model apparatus for the development of long-term socio-economic and innovative-technological forecasting have been accumulated abroad and in Russia. However, it is necessary first of all to determine the theoretical foundations, methodology and classes of macromodels on which long-term forecasting of the education system should be based.

Summarizing the accumulated experience, we can identify three areas of methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system.

1. Linear extrapolation methodology is based on identifying development trends over a sufficiently long period and extending them into the future with one or another adjustment based on expert assessments. Such forecast calculations are made on the basis of processing statistical series using correlation methods and modified Cobb-Douglas functions, constructing input-output balances, etc.

This methodology is quite reliable and gives results close to the truth within one phase of a long-term cycle. But it fails when trends change, at bifurcation points, when cycle phases change, and even more so when the cycles themselves change.

2. Foresight methodology, based on collective expert assessment, makes it possible to collect, process and average the opinion of a large group of qualified scientists and specialists about trends and parameters of future development.

However, this methodology suffers from the following disadvantages: subjectivity of experts, high degree the averageness of expert assessments, large teams of experts are characterized by a certain inertia of thinking and a desire to extend already observed trends into the future. Trajectories that differ from the majority opinion are actually discarded, whereas they may turn out to be the most realistic in certain cases. Also V.I. Vernadsky stated that the history of science at every step shows the correctness of individuals in their statements than entire corporations of scientists or hundreds and thousands of researchers adhering to prevailing views. The truth is often revealed to a greater extent to scientific heretics than to orthodox representatives of scientific thought. Ignoring and not accepting fundamentally new scientific ideas expressed by scientific heretics can lead to wrong choice priorities scientific and technological development,loss of time and resources. In this case, turning points in trajectories and bifurcation points are often left behind, and the cyclical dynamics are reflected to a lesser extent.

3. The methodology, based on cyclical genetic patterns of development, allows us to take into account the rhythm of cyclical dynamics in the economy, genetic limitations, the limits of change in the hereditary genotype when changing cycles, the directions of variability of systems for adaptation to changes in the environment.

Therefore, it seems that the third methodological option should be chosen as a methodological basis for long-term forecasting of the development of the education sector. However, this choice does not exclude the development of forecasts and model calculations based on the first two options of the methodology and comparison of the results obtained.

In the process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to consider the object of forecasting and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships. This requires knowledge of the patterns of development of the forecast background. In this regard, we can highlight the following patterns of development of the forecast background of the education system at the beginning of the 21st century:

― cyclical development of the world and national economy;

- increase in specific gravity technological methods production of the V technological order (TU) and laying the foundations of the VI TU;

― accelerated development of the technological breakthrough sector in comparison with the evolutionary improvement sector;

― increasing the role of science as a factor in improving the quality of education;

― continuous (annual) increase in education costs, the growth rate of education costs exceeding the rate of economic growth, an increase in the knowledge intensity of education in developed countries;

― increasing the processes of globalization of education;

― acceleration of the processes of aging and updating of pedagogical technologies;

― an increase from year to year in the educational level gap in developed, developing and third world countries.

Forecast development process

The process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system should include the following stages: analytical, research, program and organizational. The analytical stage allows you to identify the state and development trends of the forecast object and compare them with the state and development trends of similar objects abroad. At this stage of developing the forecast, the results of the future development of science and education, necessary and desirable for achieving a certain level of satisfaction of the needs of the individual and specific consumers of educational services (employers), are determined. The result of the research stage is the determination of the goals of the future scientific and innovative development of the education system in the form of a scientific and technical problem to be solved during the forecast period. At the program stage, it is determined possible ways achieving the goals of the future development of the education system, identifying options for achieving the necessary and desired results, the time and probability of implementing these options. The organizational stage includes the definition possible options distribution of resources and complexes of organizational and technical measures necessary to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system, as well as the most rational ways to achieve these goals. This stage completes a single cycle of predictive research, the purpose of which is to provide information that will help improve the scientific validity of educational management.

To develop forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to justify and select small generalizing macro indicators for calculations and construction of balances for the main types of resources. The main features of the educational system forecasting object include the following:

1) difficulties,

2) scale,

3) the degree of its determinism,

4) the nature of development over time,

5) degree of information security,

6) the nature of the object. The object of forecasting in the education system can be: directions of scientific and innovative development; volume and cost structure; number and structure of teaching and scientific-pedagogical personnel; cost and structure of fixed assets; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

It should also be noted that the task of forecasting should consist not only of determining the priorities of scientific and innovative development of the education system, but also of assessing the industry’s capabilities to solve scientific and technical problems within the chosen areas.

Since forecasting is a process of balancing needs and capabilities, the forecaster needs to take into account the patterns of development of the forecast background within a particular national economy. The development of Russian education is taking place against the backdrop of sharp and rather unpredictable changes in macroeconomic indicators. The collapse of the economy inevitably affects the education economy in terms of reducing the effective demand of the state and the private sector in the educational services market. This in turn led to a decrease financial security education systems. Reducing the cost of education leads to the degradation and collapse of the educational level of the population, with formal indicators of an increase in the share of people with higher professional education, candidates and doctors of science in the structure of the number of people employed in the economy, since in such conditions there are processes of reduction in the number and aging of scientific and teaching personnel, deterioration of the material and technical base of science and education, decreased productivity of scientific activities.

Conducted in last years The policy of accelerated denationalization and privatization of public property is aimed at increasing the role of private business structures and reducing the role of the state in the economic life of the country. In this situation, the development of the education system will largely depend on the innovative activity of the entrepreneurial sector of the economy. This circumstance urgently requires the development of a forecast of effective demand of entrepreneurial structures in the market of educational services in conditions when the state is curtailing education funding. When developing such a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the results of sociological research, from which it follows that the majority of managers Russian enterprises indifferent to science and education.

Long-term forecasting of the development of education, taking into account global trends, should be carried out at the beginning of a partnership between the state, science and education. To justify its strategic and innovative function in the field of education, the state needs a long-term vision of the prospects for Russia's development against the backdrop of world trends and the country's inclusion in globalization processes. Therefore, federal and regional bodies state power should act as the general customer of such a forecast, finance its development and use the results obtained. Only science can be the developer of long-term forecasts - highly qualified scientists, independent in their judgments and assessments, who have knowledge of the laws of social development and the art of predicting the further course of events.

The central link in the overall state forecasting of scientific and innovative development of education is the choice of its priority areas. A nationwide approach is necessary here because the principle of self-sufficiency should not be applied in this case at all. In some areas it is significantly limited, and the payback period significantly exceeds the normative ones. If their payback periods go beyond 15-20 years, then the very concept of payback becomes conditional.

Forecasting the development of the education system should cover all the main directions of development of science and educational (pedagogical) technologies. The objects of forecasting scientific and innovative development of the education system include: priority areas of scientific and innovative development; scientific and technical potential; technical re-equipment and modernization of the material and technical base of the industry; personnel training; organizational and economic management mechanism; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

The effectiveness of the development of the education system is largely determined not only by the power of the country’s total scientific and educational potential, but also by its optimal distribution between regions and sectors of the national economy. The results of economic and mathematical modeling indicate that the maximum function of the strength of interaction between science and education is achieved under the condition of “equal magnitude” of the scientific and technical potentials of interacting objects. For example, the strength of scientific and technical interaction between industries with a predominance of products (works, services) III and V TU is practically zero. From the above it follows that it is necessary to develop a forecast of the optimal placement of the country’s scientific and educational potential, its concentration on priority areas of educational development.

When developing forecasts for the development of the education system, all necessary information must be collected, and the information material must be repeatedly replenished and re-evaluated. To build a predictive model, statistical data and expert (intuitive) assessments should be used in combination. Since simple extrapolation methods are not applicable to predict most indicators of science and education, the variables included in the model for the most part represent reasonable intuitive estimates and assumptions. Moreover, the degree of uncertainty of information obtained from such estimates and assumptions increases as the forecast horizon, complexity and scale of the scientific and technical problems being solved increase. The likelihood that the predicted events will actually occur depends on the quality of the experts and the scientific validity of their assessments and assumptions.

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education, for example, the Novosibirsk region 2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on spiritual, cultural and social values that have developed over many centuries in the continuous activity of man in search of the meaning of life in the great megacultural space of Russia and its integral part - Siberia.

The goal of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is to determine the conditions and mechanisms for their achievement, which:

will ensure qualitative changes in education itself, the education system and educational environments of the region to provide opportunities for a person to develop multifacetedly as a spiritual, creative and healthy personality in accordance with the requirements of the modern development of the region;

will create conditions for interested participation of society in the development of education;

will fully take into account public demand from various groups of the population;

will contribute to the effective, competitive and sustainable socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region;

meet development trends modern Russia as a leading participant in global relations in the world.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the directions for the development of education for 2006-2010 proposed by the Federal Target Program and specially developed principles. It is on the basis of these principles that systemic changes should occur in education in the Novosibirsk region to ensure its accessibility, quality, continuity and investment attractiveness.

A system of scientific and technical education, a system of knowledge generation, a system of technology generation, a system of technical re-equipment of industry, a system of effective innovation infrastructure - these are the main directions for shaping the future economy of the Novosibirsk region.

Innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the following principles:

the principle of advanced development of education;

principle of designing innovative development;

the principle of openness of education and public participation;

principle of continuity of education;

principle of strategic investment;

the principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

1. The principle of advanced development of education.

The principle of rapid development of education is applied as an adequate response to requests determined by the directions of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region until 2025. This principle means a mobile reorientation of the education system to prepare a person for life in rapidly changing conditions of intensive development of social and economic processes and a new quality of life, ready to quickly offer their participation in response to the demands of society and the labor market.

2. The principle of designing innovative development of education.

This principle means that the approaches to innovation in education themselves must be innovative for the education system. Traditional industry and program approaches do not have time to respond to rapidly occurring changes in society, the country and the world. Aware and considering modern tendencies development of the country and region, it is necessary today to design processes in education that are adequate to these changes.

The principle of designing innovative development of education involves the development and implementation now of projects aimed at the future - for the sustainable long-term development of education.

3. The principle of openness of education and public participation.

The development of education in the Novosibirsk region is not so much a departmental and administrative process as a strategic direction for the development of the entire region, affecting the interests of every person.

Taking this into account, the Concept of Innovative Development of Education is based on the principle of openness of education and public participation. This principle presupposes the achievement of public consent, on the basis of which the government, society, business, public organizations and the professional teaching community assume obligations to jointly promote innovative educational processes in the Novosibirsk region. The achieved public agreement will make it possible to build constructive mutually beneficial relations among all entities, which will ensure necessary changes in such a complex socio-economic sphere of life in the region as education.

4. The principle of continuity of formation.

Modern world is characterized by a transition to global processes in which human knowledge and competencies based on them will play the most important role.

Continuous education of a person throughout his life is a factor in the mobility of society and its readiness for predictable changes. Providing the state and society with opportunities for a person to constantly develop and educate himself, regardless of age, state of health and other factors, contributes to the harmonization of social relations through the fair redistribution of knowledge as the main capital of a person. Possession of knowledge capital allows a person to effectively organize own life and manage it, ensures the rights of everyone to self-realization.

5. The principle of strategic investment.

In modern post-industrial information society a person’s level of education has a direct impact on the quality of the created social product and its competitiveness. The main competitive quality of a person is his knowledge and competencies, social and professional mobility, the ability to initiate or support innovative technologies production and management, progressive processes social development, actively participate in their implementation.

If society wants to develop over the long term, its strategic investments must be directed towards people, and therefore into their education.

6. The principle of innovation in the educational environment.

Openness of education is the most important condition for the formation of an educational environment. Being one of the main subjects of the educational environment, educational institutions and organizations become active participants in diverse interactions, which certainly introduces new features into their activities.

2.2 Main directions and tasks of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The range of problems facing the development of education in the Novosibirsk region in accordance with the request of the Russian state is complex in nature, therefore, the tasks set to overcome existing problems can be grouped into complexes, on the basis of which the following directions for the innovative development of education in our region are determined:

development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region;

ensuring accessibility and quality of education;

development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region;

introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness.

A unified educational environment, which should be created in the Novosibirsk region, assumes an orientation towards the demands of citizens, public groups, the labor market, the state and ensures the free development of the individual, is aimed at the creative and healthy development of the individual, increasing the competitiveness of a person who has received professional training on the basis of free choice, and the formation of a regional personnel an elite capable of reproducing and developing the resource and intellectual potential of the region.

The basis for creating a unified educational environment is the expansion at the level of a subject of the Russian Federation of the powers and capabilities, rights and responsibilities of the founders of educational institutions, as well as regional and local communities as consumers of services provided by the education system. The guarantee of the participation of all subjects in the formation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region is the achievement of general public consent. State and municipal authorities of the Novosibirsk region, state and municipal institutions,political and public organizations, joint stock companies and individuals, associations of various directions, everyone whose activities are actively developing in the region.

Objectives of innovative development of education, ensuring the development of a unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region:

1. implementation of regional educational policy aimed at network interaction of all subjects of the unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region;

2. creation of mechanisms for the formation, based on the needs of students, of targeted orders from the state, society, corporations and labor market demands, consolidated and supported by means of ordering the education system of the Novosibirsk region and municipal education systems for the training and retraining of professional personnel of various profiles, levels and specializations of education;

3. qualitative change in advanced training and retraining of personnel in the education system based on predictive and advanced planning of courses based on educational programs and disciplines focused on innovative approaches to education;

4. creation of a unified information space of the Novosibirsk region for an objective presentation to the population of all educational opportunities in the region, development of corporate educational culture;

5. initiation of management processes that increase the responsibility of founders for the activities of educational institutions.

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

The right to education is a constitutional guarantee for every citizen.

To achieve accessibility and quality of education in the Novosibirsk region in the course of its innovative development, it is necessary to solve the following problems:

1. carry out a continuous educational process at its various levels, ensuring the maintenance of human health and the development of its potential;

2. develop and implement a regional state-public system for assessing the quality of education, the activities of educational institutions and organizations.

3. annually hold regional competitions for the development and implementation of projects in the areas of innovative development of education;

4. introduce models of integrated educational institutions, including adapted educational programs at various levels, providing equal starting opportunities for the education of children, regardless of their social, racial and religious background, psychophysical health, and the level of well-being of their families or guardians;

5. develop a system of continuous professional education focused on the needs of all categories of citizens in building their own educational and professional trajectories.

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of process management in education in the Novosibirsk region

Today, a clear conclusion has been made that the development of education is impossible without its openness to society. Openness consists not so much in the regular publication and public presentation of reports of educational authorities and educational institutions on their activities, but in public participation in educational activities.

Openness will allow education in the Novosibirsk region to gain an objective idea of its development, free itself from existing stereotypes, and enter into a constructive public dialogue that develops interactions and ensures mutual enrichment.

The openness of education is ensured by the principle of state and public management laid down in the Federal Law “On Education”. This principle must be implemented in advance of many other processes in education, since the innovative development of education is impossible without broad public support and active public participation in the development of educational policy, search effective ways ensuring accessible and quality education.

On the path to the development of social and civil forms of education management, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. test and begin the implementation of effective models of state and public management that contribute to the development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions as an important condition for the openness and investment attractiveness of education;

2. to work out the mechanisms for managing educational institutions when changing the organizational and legal forms of their activities in the conditions of increasing economic independence of educational institutions, increasing the transparency of financing, increasing their responsibility for the effectiveness of the educational process, the results of their activities;

3. carry out design developments in terms of building interaction between vocational education institutions and employers, ensuring the attraction of additional material, intellectual and other resources into the field of education.

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

The ineffectiveness of spending funds allocated for education is obvious. To a greater extent, this is due to the preservation in education as a sector of financial and economic mechanisms inherited from a costly equalizing economy.

Transition from financing educational institutions to financing educational consumers services are the basis modern budget economics of education. It is also fundamental to create a system of economic motivation for teachers for their professional growth. Particular attention should be paid to securing in the contracts of employees of educational management bodies, administrations and administrative workers educational institutions assessing their activities depending on the quality of education in the region, municipality or educational institution.

Innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is aimed at introducing effective financial and economic mechanisms that ensure the quality of educational processes and the efficiency of spending budget funds, as well as increasing the investment attractiveness of education.

Solving existing problems on the path to economically sustainable development of education in the Novosibirsk region is possible by performing the following tasks:

1. develop, test and implement a regional model of multi-channel financing of educational institutions and organizations of all levels, types and types;

2. develop, test and implement effective technologies for managing the quality of education that ensure its investment attractiveness;

3. actively use proven and design new mechanisms, including regulatory and legal ones, for the effective use of budget funds;

4. develop and implement a system of economic motivation for the work of education workers, associated with their use in their professional practice principles of innovative development of education;

5. implement promising economic and program analysis opportunities for multidisciplinary training of personnel ready to work in the new conditions of the education system of the Novosibirsk region on the basis of higher education institutions.

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

Currently, the volumes and list of specialties and professions for which young workers are trained are often planned on the basis of outdated or insufficiently verified information that does not reflect changes in the labor market and does not take into account the capacity of the labor market. As a result, some graduates risk obtaining specialties that are no longer in demand on the labor market (for example, there are known imbalances in training in the specialties “lawyer,” “economist,” “accountant”). On the other hand, there is a growing imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, associated with the ratio levels of vocational education. Thus, it should be noted that there is a double structural imbalance in the demand and supply of jobs in the regional labor market: by level of education (primary, secondary, higher vocational education) and in terms of professional qualifications.

Forecasting the needs of the labor market in these conditions is considered important component marketing information necessary for the development of measures to regulate and control changes in the educational services market, strategic planning of a system of training and retraining of personnel focused on demand.

Drawing up perspective balances of supply and demand work force acts as the main component of the control mechanism human resources potential region, an important component of an effective model of organizational and economic interaction between regional systems of vocational education and labor markets. But, as a rule, forecasts and economic development programs prepared in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are based on information received from state statistics bodies and reflecting the employment structure only in a sectoral context. Currently available statistical data do not allow us to assess the dynamics of employment in terms of the professional and qualification structure of jobs in the regional economy. This information is clearly not enough to plan a personnel training system. The sectoral structure of employment does not provide information about the professional qualifications of workers (in agriculture, these can be livestock breeders or winegrowers), nor about required level education (in livestock farming this could include veterinarians and milkmaids). On the other side, professional qualification a worker is not necessarily strictly tied to one or another sector of the economy: for example, the profession of a driver is universal and is present in the statistics of every sector of the economy.

The development of the methodology was based on the following basic ideas:

1. Since forecasting the personnel needs of the region is the main link in the holistic mechanism of interaction between regional labor markets and vocational education, and the target for developing the forecast is its use for the formation of an annual regional order for personnel training in the system of primary, secondary and higher vocational education, the methodology for analyzing the labor market assumes that forecasting The professional and personnel needs of the economy should be built not in terms of industry, but in terms of professions and specialties.

2. As the analysis of existing approaches to the development of medium-term personnel forecasts has shown, none of the methods used can be considered satisfactory from the point of view of achieving forecasting goals. A complementary approach is needed, including various methods of research and forecasting of the labor market.

3. It is advisable to use as additional research methods:

secondary analysis of statistical data and identification of trends in employment;

analysis of programs and projects for the socio-economic development of the region;

analysis of plans and programs for investment in the real sector of the regional economy;

analysis of demographic statistics.

The need to use additional methods is due, as the experience of testing the methodology shows, to a certain background of subjectivity in employers’ assessments of the prospects for the development of their enterprise.

4. The main method of collecting information should be a direct survey of employers in the region, since the structures of current and future employment, even at homogeneous enterprises, have significant differences. With this approach, it is possible to partially neutralize the factor of interchangeability of specialists, since the immediate managers of enterprises (personnel services) are quite well aware of the specific specifics of the employment structure. This is the difference between the proposed methodology and the methodology developed, for example, by the National Board of Education of Finland.

5. It is fundamentally important for the formation of a regional order for vocational education to forecast the total personnel needs for skilled workers, specialists with secondary and higher vocational education, i.e. all levels of professional training.

2.7 Updated main forecast indicators of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region in 2009

The high rates of economic development of the region in 2008 were realized against the background of the ongoing economic recovery in the Russian Federation. However, in the second half of the year, the impact of the global financial crisis began to manifest itself, especially in the banking sector and a number of industries that are highly dependent on borrowed funds.

Negative manifestations in the world Russian economy during 2009 and to a certain extent in the subsequent period will be a serious factor determining the pace of socio-economic development of the region.

Under these conditions, existing shortcomings of a systemic nature will affect the rate of economic growth - not high level competitiveness of enterprises due to low labor productivity, unreasonably high energy consumption and resource intensity, aging of fixed assets and technological backwardness, lack of prospects and insufficiently high quality consumer properties of the products of a number of enterprises.

Problems hindering the development of consumer and investment demand, as well as the high level of competition for financial investment resources, will become more severe due to their increasing shortage.

At the same time, the high level of diversification of the economy of the Novosibirsk region and the low share of the raw materials sector in its structure are an advantage that provides additional opportunities to stabilize the situation and ensure progressive development in the planned period.

An important advantage of the region is the high level of concentration of science and professional education, which, in the presence of effective innovation system, strengthening the motivation of the manufacturing sector to update technologies, develop new products can become an effective source of development of the high-tech sector of the economy.

The emergence of large retail chains in recent years, the development wholesale companies increases the demand for logistics services, which, together with the strengthened role of the Novosibirsk region as the largest interregional and international transport hub in the eastern part of Russia, is an important condition for continuing the investment process in creating a system of modern transport and logistics complexes.

The developed financial infrastructure of the Novosibirsk region, including the leading banking sector in the region, the largest regional exchange platforms: stock, foreign exchange and commodities, create conditions for concentration financial resources, technology specialists in the field of finance.

The stability of the functioning of the economy and social sphere of the region in the conditions of negative manifestations of the crisis will be ensured by a relatively high share of the budget sector in comparison with other constituent entities of Russia. In the structure of those employed in the regional economy, those employed in the budget sector make up about 25%. This area in 2009 will be least susceptible to crisis phenomena, will ensure stable employment, increased wages for those employed in it, as well as stable effective demand in the market for consumer goods and services (Table 1).

Even in the presence of a number of factors that ensure relative stability of the economy and social sphere in the planning period, difficult economic conditions place special demands on the effectiveness of management actions, the elaboration and formation of multivariate management decisions, and the involvement of specialist experts and participants in the transformation process in the development of such decisions.

In these conditions, the task is - first of all, not to lose the priority of strategic development goals, to mobilize the efforts of all branches of government to implement strategic development priorities, to ensure the subordination of operational management activities to solving strategically oriented problems.

In the planning period, concentration of efforts executive bodies state power and budgetary funds will focus on the development of science and education, the development of markets and maintaining the effective demand of the population, investment processes, technical and technological renewal of production and the creation of new knowledge-intensive enterprises, the development of housing construction, support and development of small and medium-sized businesses, optimization and improvement of the efficiency of social services .

Table 1 - Stability of functioning of the economy and social sphere of the Novosibirsk region

Name of indicators Unit of measurement 2007 report 2008 assessment 2009 forecast Gross regional product billion rubles 347,434,476 Gross regional product index as a percentage of the previous one. year 111.0 109.7 102.4 Gross regional product per capita thousand rubles 131.5 164.6 180.3 Index industrial production in% to previous year 112.3 109.0 102.2 Gross output index Agriculture in% to previous year 111.5 106.0 104.0 Index of the volume of work performed by type of activity “construction” in% of the previous one. year 133.7 109.0 92.0 Freight turnover of transport organizations in% of the previous one. year 105.8 102.5 101.5 Passenger turnover of transport organizations in% of the previous one. year 106.6 109.0 103.0 Retail trade turnover index as a percentage of the previous year. year 114.3 114.0 103.0 Index of the volume of paid services to the population as a percentage of the previous one. year 111.2 113.8 104.0 Volume of investments in fixed capital billion rubles 85.2 110.0 117.0 Index of volume of investments in fixed capital as a percentage of the previous year. year 144.4 118.0 100.0 Volume of investments in fixed assets per capita thousand rubles 32.3 41.7 44.4 Number of permanent residents (average annual) thousand people 2638.1 2637 2639.9 Overall coefficient birth rate people per 1000 population 11.4 12.5 12.6 Natural increase rate people per 1000 population - 3.3 - 2.1 - 1.7 Migration growth rate people per 1000 population 1.4 3.0 3.0 Number labor resources thousand people 1761 1721 1701 Average consumer price index for the year in% of the previous one. year 108.1 114.1 112 Maximum increase in tariffs for housing and communal services for the population in% of the previous one. year 115 118 122.8 Employees' wage fund billion rubles 129.6 167.8 192.4 Real disposable income of the population as a percentage of the previous one. year 113.3 112.6 102.7 Living wage rubles 4030 4826 5415

Noting that the actual growth rates of most indicators of the socio-economic development of the region are ahead of the forecast ones, the Governor of the region emphasized the following: “We are focusing on the development of the scientific and educational complex and an innovative economy aimed at producing a unique product. I am convinced that the economic effect from this will be much higher than in regions that rely on traditional sectors of the economy. This effect should lead to a significant increase in income and other indicators of quality of life. For example, within a three-year period we are ready to reach the normal regime of housing affordability that exists in developed countries, when the income of the population, on the one hand, and management decisions in the field of housing lending, on the other, are capable of making housing truly affordable for the absolute majority of the economically active population.”

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

The method and mechanisms for its implementation involved in the framework of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region are aimed at:

to a transition from understanding education as a sphere of consumption, i.e. transfer and acquisition of knowledge, to the sphere of creation - personal and corporate development and competent application of knowledge;

to change the dominant attitude towards education as a costly sector of the economy towards the understanding that education is a strategic resource for economic development.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the design and software method.

The project-program method activates intersectoral relations, affecting many regional and municipal organizations and institutions. This will make it possible to pursue a unified regional policy in the field of education, solve the problem of imbalances in the development of municipal education systems and create a unified educational environment and a unified information space in the Novosibirsk region.

The use of the design and program method will allow us to assess the readiness of the education system of the Novosibirsk region for cinematic innovation development (Table 2).

Table 2 - Development of a network of general educational institutions in the region: providing conditions for obtaining high-quality general education regardless of place of residence

Indicator name Actual Liabilities 2006 2007 2008 2009 Share of schoolchildren (%) studying in educational institutions, answering modern requirements to the conditions of the educational process 52% 67% 80% 100% Average class size in general education institutions located in urban areas, within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards 22.0 22.8 24.3 25.0 Average class size in general educational institutions located in rural areas, within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards 8.4 9.6 11.0 12.7 Creating for senior level students the opportunity to choose a training profile, provided with the necessary equipment and highly qualified personnel for high-quality implementation of appropriate educational programs in each subject and effective use of educational resources 51.8 56 60 62

The proposed mechanisms for the implementation of innovative development of education are tools for the project-program method.

1. Mechanism for prognostic analysis of educational development

Through this mechanism, the principle of advanced development of education is largely implemented. Another effect is that information flows in the education system should qualitatively change due to the use of modern technologies creating databases about education and educational environments, prompt collection, processing and dissemination of statistical and other information.

Launching a mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development will allow us to resolve pressing problems existing in the Novosibirsk region, which include:

lack of a system of public and public services that promote the employment and employment of graduates of educational institutions;

underdevelopment of the regional network of analytical and information educational centers for forecasting, monitoring and marketing of educational services.

The use of this mechanism will create conditions for qualitative transformations in vocational education and retraining of specialists in the education system through forecasting long-term personnel requirements of educational organizations, founders and educational institutions.

2. The mechanism for creating systemic educational complexes

A systemic educational complex is created at the level of the municipality (urban district) of the Novosibirsk region and includes educational and other organizations and institutions of various levels, types and types, innovative educational programs, technologies and methods, as well as management infrastructure.

The goal of the systemic educational complex is to integrate the resources of the territory, create comprehensive conditions for diagnosing the educational potential of an individual, prognostically building and implementing continuous educational and professional trajectories of all participants in the educational process. The systemic educational complex provides education:

from the preschool level,

through the level of acquisition of knowledge and competencies based on state standards and the choice of educational profile and profession at the stage of general education,

to individual choice of the level of their professional education (primary, secondary or higher), as well as the opportunity for everyone to quickly undergo professional retraining or receive education in a new specialty.

Systemic educational complexes are focused on the prospects for economic, social and cultural development of the territory, and also take into account climatic and natural specifics.

The creation of systemic educational complexes is carried out on a competitive basis through the development of regional, municipal or public innovative educational projects that introduce and test:

integrated and network approaches to continuous general and professional education;

principles of state and public management of educational institutions;

technologies for network interaction of educational institutions (organizations) with other institutions and organizations in the local community (public institutions, businesses, universities, etc.).

3. Mechanism for targeted network implementation of innovations at the municipal level

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is implemented through the initiatives of the founders of educational institutions and the structures of their state and public administration, aimed at creating educational environments in the territories of their activities.

The mechanism of targeted network implementation of innovations at the level of municipalities implies that applications for participation in innovation activities are submitted exclusively by municipal authorities or structures of state and public education management as guarantors of implementation innovative projects and the creation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region. Within the framework of one application (participation of several applicants is possible), the creation of at least two interacting systemic educational complexes may be presented.

The mechanism of targeted network innovation creates favorable conditions for the development of the principles of strategic investment and design of innovative development. Special conditions are created to implement the principle of openness of education and public participation. Within the framework of the mechanism under consideration, this principle is implemented through the proactive development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions at different levels, the formation of regional and municipal educational policies, and participation in assessing the quality of education.

The forms of public and civil participation in education management include:

councils of participants in the educational process and councils of educational institutions;

councils of graduates of educational institutions;

boards of trustees and foundations of educational institutions;

municipal organizations and the regional association of teachers and educators;

regional association of educational leaders;

funds for the development of education in municipalities and in the Novosibirsk region,

Public Chamber of the Novosibirsk Region;

employers' associations, etc.

It is the state-public structures of education management and determination of educational policy that ensure broad social interaction, develop network cooperation of educational institutions of different levels, types and types, their coordinated partnership with other associations of citizens living or actively operating in the territory where the educational environment is formed and developed.

4. The mechanism for attracting investment in education through public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy

Public participation in the management of education and the processes of determining educational policy is the most effective mechanism for attracting investment in education through:

creating effective socio-economic relations between various subjects of the educational services market:

educational institutions of different levels, different types and types;

parents, government and municipal organizations and institutions, as well as the labor market as the main customers of the quality of education and training of specialists;

business incubators, consulting firms, etc.;

development of funds created by boards of trustees and alumni councils of educational institutions;

creation and development of a system of regional and municipal support for educational lending as an effective tool for increasing accessibility, first of all, of the vocational education system.

5. Mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services

The project, as an organizational form of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region, is fully consistent with the abandonment of estimated financing of educational institutions and the transition to a mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of consumers of educational services.

Regulatory financing will objectively lead to innovative processes in education, which include:

creation of progressive methods for calculating regulatory funding for different levels of education, types and types of educational institutions;

development of legislative and regulatory framework, increasing the financial and economic independence and responsibility of educational institutions for the quality of educational services;

development of mechanisms for multi-channel and multi-level financing of educational institutions;

ensuring diversity of organizational and legal forms of educational institutions at different levels through the development of an appropriate regulatory framework;

formation of motivation of education workers, educational institutions, education authorities for innovative development.

Risks

When implementing the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region, risks may arise associated with:

with an underestimation of the principle of results-based management;

with an inadequate interpretation of the selected principles and directions of innovative development of education on the part of the education system;

with the inertia of the legislator in matters of changing currently existing approaches to providing financial and economic independence to educational institutions;

with the unpreparedness of the education system to implement the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region;

with weak coordination of the actions of various subjects of educational policy.

2.9 Assessing the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region offers modern approaches to assessing the quality and effectiveness of education. In accordance with such approaches, the assessment system relies more on qualitative criteria and indicators, the main of which are focused on long-term effects, and their assessment is delayed in time in manifestations and measurements.

The qualitative long-term effects of the implementation of the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region can be divided into two groups.

The first is the lasting effects in innovative work educational institutions and education authorities. These include:

diagnosable solutions to the tasks and achieving the goal of innovative development of educational institutions or the education system in the municipality;

long-term and budget-supported planning of innovative processes carried out by educational institutions or educational authorities;

the duration of the initiative participation of teaching staff of educational institutions and specialists of educational management bodies in innovative activities;

sustainable positive attitude of participants in the educational process towards the innovative development of education;

the presence of competition within the framework of participation in educational processes among partners of educational institutions or educational authorities;

extension by partners of proposals for participation in events and programs planned as part of the innovative development of education, including regional, national and international; and etc.

The second group should include effects associated with long-term support for the innovative activities of an educational institution and education management body from society. Among them:

a constant increase in partnership offers to an educational institution or educational authority;

creation of new innovative projects on the territory of the municipality;

constant interest of teaching staff in participating in advanced training courses, trainings, innovative seminars, creative research, including on the basis of a personal contribution from the participant, on a volunteer or free basis;

diagnosable implementation of innovative educational technologies;

active lobbying by the public and partners in various institutions and organizations of the interests of the innovative activities of an educational institution or education management body;

long-term presence in the budgets of the region and municipalities of articles on the financing of innovative educational projects and events proposed by educational authorities and educational institutions;

the ratio in budgets of all levels of the share of expenses for the current maintenance and functioning of the education system and the share of expenses for innovative educational socially significant programs and projects;

the ratio of the share of budget expenditures on education with the share of funds raised for the development of education; and etc.

The system of quantitative indicators of the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region correlates with the system of target indicators and indicators of the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006-2010 and the Program for the Social and Economic Development of the Novosibirsk Region until 2025.

The demographic situation in the Novosibirsk region is gradually improving. In the forecast period, the birth rate will continue to increase, the number of children born will increase from 27.9 thousand people in 2006 to 31.3 thousand people in 2010.

The rate of natural population decline will decrease.

The number of children is projected to increase preschool age(by 115% by 2006). At the same time, the number of school-age children will decrease by 19.2%.

A reduction in the number of children aged 15-17 years by 34.9% over the period 2007-2010 will lead to a reduction in the number of school graduates and, accordingly, the number of applicants and students in all institutions of primary, secondary and higher vocational education in the Novosibirsk region from among the region's residents.

During this period, the positive dynamics of migration population growth is predicted to continue, but it will not compensate for the natural population decline.

Since 2008, a gradual decline in the working-age population has been predicted; the number of labor resources by 2010 may decrease by 41 thousand people (2.4%) and amount to 1672 thousand people. The process of population aging will continue. The share of people over working age will be almost 1.4 times higher than the share of the child population. The demographic burden on the working-age population will increase to 596 people per 1,000 people of working age by 2010. At the same time, an increase in the number of people employed in the economy is predicted. In 2010, the number of employed will be 1250 thousand people. The number of unemployed will decrease labor activity citizens. The number of unemployed and, accordingly, the level of overall unemployment are projected to decrease from 7.1% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2010.

In general, the general state of the labor market in the Novosibirsk region in the coming years is predicted to be stable.

The volume of investments directed to the development of the economy and social sphere of the region for the period 2008-2010 is projected to be at least 380 billion rubles, the index of the physical volume of investments in 2010 will be 209.9% compared to 2006.

Conclusion

With the adoption of the Federal Education Development Program, new stage its development. The Federal Program, which was the organizational basis of state policy in the field of education, determined the strategy for the development of this most important area, its priority, and the need state support and real financing. The Federal Program, based on the Laws of the Russian Federation “Education”, “On Higher and Postgraduate Professional Education”, is aimed at the medium term (until 2010). The need to reinforce it with republican, regional and sectoral programs for the development of education is determined by their focus on taking into account national and regional socio-economic, environmental, cultural, demographic and other features, the development and implementation of specific activities assigned to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments, providing targeted funding from budgets of all levels , extrabudgetary sources.

The implementation of the main directions of development of the domestic education system, reforms at all its levels and ensuring the self-sufficient functioning of this most important sphere in the interests of the individual, society and the state is possible only if project goals, objectives, and main directions of modernization are communicated to specific educational institutions. In this regard, an important mechanism for implementing the Federal Education Development Program is the formation on its basis of municipal programs for forecasting the development of education.

Glossary

Education is a purposeful process of upbringing and training in the interests of an individual, society, and state, accompanied by a statement of the achievement by a citizen (student) of educational levels (educational qualifications) established by the state.

The receipt of education by a citizen (student) is understood as the achievement and confirmation of a certain educational qualification, which is certified by the appropriate document.

The education system is a set of interacting:

continuous educational programs and government educational standards different levels and directions;

networks of educational institutions implementing them, regardless of their organizational and legal forms, types and types;

education management bodies of institutions and organizations subordinate to them.

The educational environment is an integral set of opportunities and conditions for personal development available in a given territory that correspond to the level of development of the environment and the education system.

The quality of education is the correspondence of the results achieved in education to a given goal, that is, a measure of the fulfillment of the goal.

Mission is the philosophy and purpose of an activity, the meaning of its implementation, the difference between a type of activity and other types of activity.

The philosophy of activity determines its values and internal culture.

The purpose of an activity is characterized by the goals and objectives for the implementation of which the activity is carried out.

Health is a state of complete physical, spiritual and social well-being, and not just the absence of disease and physical defects.

Competence is an alienated, predetermined requirement for the educational preparation of students (state order, standard).

Competence is the ability to solve real life problems; proven readiness for action. The Council of Europe has identified five key competencies:

political and social competence;

the ability to live in a multicultural world;

communication culture;

knowledge of information technologies;

ability to learn throughout life.

A public educational contract is a social contract concluded between citizens and the state regarding the conditions, processes and results of educational activities and public control over the state’s implementation of these conditions. It is implemented through the creation by citizens themselves of influential and effectively operating public educational associations.

A systemic educational complex is an association of legal entities that corresponds to the tasks of creating an effective integration mechanism that ensures the implementation of a regional innovative strategic educational policy; as well as the practical implementation of lifelong education.

Innovation is an innovation in any field of activity or the final result of innovative activity, which has been implemented in the form of:

a new or improved process used in the practice;

a new or improved product sold on the market.

Sustainable development is social development that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the opportunities left as a legacy for future generations to meet their own needs.

Development is an irreversible, directed, natural change in objects, as a result of which their new qualitative state arises.

Investment attractiveness - in the broad sense of the word, means the presence of certain investment conditions that influence the investor’s preferences in choosing a particular investment object. As the main components of investment attractiveness, it is customary to distinguish its characteristics: quantitative - “investment potential” and qualitative - “investment risk” .

The directions and structure of activities, the presence of active and professional teams, and effective management are essential for investment attractiveness.

Corporate educational culture is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by society when solving problems of adaptation to changes external environment and internal integration, the effectiveness of which turns out to be sufficient to consider them valuable and transfer them to new members of the community through educational mechanisms as an adequate system for perceiving and resolving these problems. The assessment of corporate educational culture is based on the degree of its compliance with the mission, strategy and goals of education.

Literature

1. Agapova T.N., Ivanova M.I. Forecasting indicators of general education at the level of a municipal district // Regional economics: theory and practice. - 2007. - No. 2. - P.34-41.

2. Concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

3. The concept of modernization of Russian education for the period until 2010

4. Kryukova E. The time has come for training // Paid education. - 2005. - No. 4. - P.48-49

5. Kuleshov V.V. Strategy for socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region: humanitarian aspect.

6. Methods, models and systems for forecasting regional development: Textbook / Ed. G.R. Khasaeva. M.: Academy, 2006. - 380 p.

7. Development of the education system as most important factor socio-economic development of the territory. Results of the implementation of the program of socio-economic development of the Kachkanar urban district for 2005 - 2006 under the section “Education”.

8. Sergeev N.G. etc. Monitoring system for analysis and forecasting of the development of education and educational structures of the Russian Federation. M.: Press, 2002. - 204 p.

9. Todosiychuk A.V. Forecasting the development of the education system // Education in documents. - 2008. - No. 7. - P.23-37.

11. Ushakov A.K. Development of forecasts for socio-economic development of regions using a complex simulation model // Russian Economic Journal. - 2000. - No. 2. - P.15-19.

12. Federal Law “On Education” dated January 13, 1996 N 12-FZ, dated November 16, 1997 N 144-FZ, dated July 20, 2000 N 102-FZ, dated August 7, 2000 N 122-FZ, dated February 13, 2002 N20-FZ , from 03/21/2002 N 31-FZ, from 06/25/2002 N 71-ФЗ, from 07/25/2002 N 112-ФЗ, from 01/10/2003 N 11-ФЗ, from 07/07/2003 N 123-ФЗ, from 12/08/2003 N 169-ФЗ, dated 03/05/2004 N 9-ФЗ, dated 06/30/2004 N 61-ФЗ, dated 07/20/2004 N 68-ФЗ, dated 08/22/2004 N 122-ФЗ, amended by the Resolution of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation dated 10/24/2000 N 13-P, Federal laws dated December 27, 2000 N 150-FZ, dated December 30, 2001 N 194-FZ, dated December 24, 2002 N 176-FZ, dated December 23, 2003 N 186-FZ.

13. Federal target program for the development of education for 2006-2010.

II. THE ONLY CORRECT WAY TO MANAGE PERSONNEL

VI. Pedagogical technologies based on the effectiveness of management and organization of the educational process

The 20th century is often characterized as the “atomic age,” which is associated not only with the advent of atomic weapons, but also with the development of nuclear energy.

Automated management systems in healthcare (clinical, city, regional, management levels.

Automated airport production management systems

Managing education as a dynamic system requires predictive information about the prospects for its development in order to make the necessary management decisions. The quality of human (intellectual) capital and the efficiency of the economy as a whole depend on the quality of forecast estimates and their effective use in the process of managing the education system. Forecasting for educational management purposes, considered as predicting future changes, is the selection of methods and approaches to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about educational development in the short, medium and long term.

In developed countries, forecasting the development of the education system is given great importance. Expenditures on research and development in this direction amount annually to about 2% of all allocations for science in education. The benefits from research and development are more than 50 times greater than the costs associated with its implementation. Particularly important role should be given to forecasting the development of the education system in conditions of economic crisis.

The forecast is a probabilistic assessment of future results and development paths of the education system, as well as the resources and organizational measures necessary for its implementation. In the process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to observe the following methodological principles: 1) systematicity, which requires considering the object of forecasting and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships; 2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts when minimum costs; 3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object; 4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object; 5) specificity, which presupposes mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only to the analyzed object.

Forecasting the education system should be considered as predicting future changes in its development in the future. The goal of forecasting, which includes a set of methods and approaches, is to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about education to select priority areas for its scientific and innovative development.

Forecasting is a necessary element of state regulation of the education system, the development of long-term strategic plans, national programs and projects. Making strategic decisions without taking into account forecast estimates of the consequences of their implementation deepens crisis phenomena in the economy and social life. In this regard, it should be noted that in Russia and other post-socialist countries, since the 90s of the twentieth century, work on forecasting and strategic planning for the development of education has been practically curtailed, which has led to many errors and failures.

State regulation of the education system should be based on a combination of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning, programming, scientific, financial, logistics and personnel support. Each of these elements of a single system performs functions unique to it; they act in a certain sequence.

Forecasting (long-term, medium-term and short-term) determines possible trends in the development of the education system under the influence of external and internal factors, evaluates the trajectories of its dynamics, the paths and consequences of influencing these trajectories, so that the optimal development path can be chosen in the forecast period.

Strategic planning is focused on implementing the optimal path for the development of the education system based on selected priorities, determined on the basis of forecasting results, achieving set goals to ensure universal access to education, improving its quality and competitiveness in the global market of educational services.

Indicative planning ensures the balanced development of the education economy in the implementation of strategic plans, national and territorial programs and projects based on a system of general development indicators and balances of the most important types of resources.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of educational development.

Scientific support for the development of education should provide answers to the following basic questions: what areas of scientific research and development will be priorities in the next 15-50 years; when and in what areas of knowledge the dominant scientific theories exhaust their potential, new paradigms will be formed; what branches of science will shape the technical and technological appearance of education in the future; what strength should be the scientific and technical potential that ensures: accelerated development of science within the framework of selected priority areas, transition of education to an innovative path of development; what should be the optimal balance between basic research, applied research and development in the field of education; what and when clusters of complex radical innovations are needed to ensure sustainable development of education on an innovative basis; what is the expected effect from obtaining and applying the results of research and (or) scientific and technical activities.

Principles of public administration.

The formulation of public administration goals and the process of achieving them are based on a number of principles. Principles of public administration – These are, as a rule, legislatively enshrined basic provisions in accordance with which the public administration system is formed and functions. In science, I distinguish 3 blocks of principles: general, organizational and technological, private.

Are common – relate to the content and goals of the public administration system and are divided into:

1. social and value (humanism, democracy);

2. social-functional (the principle of separation of powers, federalism, legality).

Organizational and technological:

1. structural and target (hierarchy of public administration goals, sequence of achieving goals);

2. structural and organizational (unity of the public administration system, a combination of collegiality and unity of command in the activities of public authorities);

3. structural and functional (fastening management functions within the competence of the relevant government body);

4. structural and procedural (the principle of compliance of management methods with the functions of a government body).

Usage private principles focused on increasing the importance of the human factor in the process of public administration. These include principles projected onto various spheres of society(economic planning, marketing principles), and operating principles state and public institutions

The performance by public authorities of the functions of forecasting, planning and programming presupposes a clear definition of such methods of influence of the state on economic entities and such methods of using the resources available in society that would allow achieving the set goals in the shortest possible time.

Forecasting - this is a reasonable prediction of the development of the situation. In the process of public administration, conditions arise when factors of uncertainty and uncontrollability hinder the development of long-term government plans and programs; then forecasting acquires special significance, to a certain extent replacing both planning and programming.

Forecasting in public administration - scientific a based understanding of the development of social processes and relations, the timing and nature of their changes. The forecasting process is not limited by strict time frames, previously made decisions, and is preliminary in nature. Forecasts are a source of information, first of all, about those objects of public administration that significantly influence the course of socio-economic events and at the same time are partially amenable (or not) to influence by the state. As weakly controllable (or uncontrollable) factors, as a rule, natural-climatic, demographic, military-political, scientific-cognitive, trade and market factors are identified.

The following are used in the activities of government bodies: types of forecasts :

ü socio-economic;

ü demographic; forecasts

ü labor resources and workforce;

ü forecasts regarding natural resources;

ü social macroeconomic forecasts;

ü macroeconomic forecasts of the domestic and foreign markets;

ü forecasts in the scientific and technical field;

ü military-political;

ü foreign economic forecasts.

According to the time characteristic allocate short-, medium-, long-term forecasts, the subjects of which, respectively, can be exchange rates, stock rates, prices, etc.; creation and provision of new types of services or products, implementation of a target program, national project etc.; demographic situation in the country, socio-economic transformations of society, etc.

The fundamental element of state forecasting has become consolidated macroeconomic forecasts, related to determining the expected state of the country’s economy and identifying trends in the dynamics of its main parameters - GDP, volume of industrial and agricultural production, volume of investment in fixed capital, real cash income of the population, etc. Macroeconomic forecasting involves the development of pessimistic, optimistic and realistic forecasts. Macroeconomic forecasts are made through various forecasting methods .

Extrapolation method is based on the fact that the trajectory of future development is a continuation of the trajectory of past development. Extrapolation forecasting is applied to inertial processes.

Factor forecasting method involves identifying factors that influence the subject of the forecast, determining the type of dependence of the required indicators on the factors (can be linear or power law)/and calculating the values of the predicted indicators.

Model forecasting method is a forecasting tool based on economic and mathematical models. In the practice of public administration, it has not received widespread use; due to the complexity of constructing macroeconomic models corresponding to the modeled object.

In recent years, government bodies have increasingly begun to turn to expert forecasting method as the most universal, when an expert gives a forecast based on experience, analogies, and intuition.

Planned activities – natural and necessary function of the subject of management. In the public administration system, planning is universal. A plan is not only desired result, but also ways to achieve it, and this is the main difference between planning and forecasting. Planning as a process consists of developing, drawing up, monitoring the progress of implementation and adjusting the plan. Plans are developed for a certain time period. Short term plans focused on a period of up to one year. Medium term plans make up , usually for a period of time from; one year to five years. Long term plans are developed for a period of 5-20 years.

Different types of plan development are characteristic of discrete planning and continuous-sliding planning. In the first case, plans are developed “end-to-end”; as one plan is completed, it is replaced by another; In the second case, the plan is periodically extended even before its completion. The planning process has level character, therefore, they distinguish: international planning (joint political, economic and other activities of countries); government planning; sectoral planning; territorial planning; planning of territories of economic entities. By planning object and applied indicators allocate:

ü social planning (applies to processes and objects of a social nature);

ü production and economic planning at the macro level (aimed at economic growth);

ü state;

ü financial planning(related to the formation of state budgets and funds).

For modern Russia, the development of the following is relevant: forms of state planning:

1) planning concept, with its mandatory approval at the state level;

2) state directive planning guidelines of a long-term nature;

3) indicative planning through the development and adoption of indicative plans at the state level;

4) state target programs;

5) state planned order;

6) formation of the state budget as financial plan states;

7) adoption of state plans and programs for privatization and use of state property;

8) state investment and innovation projects.

State programming often used as a term equivalent to program-target planning. Program-target method - the main way to solve major socio-economic problems through the development and implementation by public authorities and management of interrelated program measures aimed at solving problems in various spheres of society. Specific features of program-target planning are:

ü clear formulation and systematization of goals (“tree of goals and objectives”);

ü the conditionality of the implemented activities by the set goals (system of goal-realizing actions);

ü initial establishment of means and resources for implementing program activities;

ü a systematic approach to program management and control over the implementation of measures by management bodies.

The essence of the program approach is revealed through the concepts of “program area”, “program parameters”, “program structure”. IN general view The program structure includes the following blocks: target (content of the problem, justification for the need to solve it using program methods, goals, objectives, terms and stages of the program), executive (system of program events) resourceful(volumes, sources of resources), organizational (implementation mechanism, management organization and control, impact assessment, program passport).

The process of developing a target program consists of the following stages: target setting of the program; scientific and design development of the program (justification of methods for its implementation); structural development (formation of sections, construction of the executive structure of the program, justification of program activities); resource development (justification of the volumes and sources of resources necessary for the implementation of the program). There is no unified algorithm for the content of methods for developing state programs due to the fact that the development of a target program is not a linear, but a cyclical process.

Classification of government programs possible for the following reasons:

1. According to the functional area of the state program:

ü socially oriented (social);

ü scientific and technical (innovative);

ü investment (reproduction);

ü environmental;

ü programs for ensuring national security, preventing and eliminating the consequences of emergency situations.

2. By object of implementation of state programs:

ü territorial (regional);

ü industry;

ü resource potential development programs;

ü foreign economic;

ü organizational and managerial;

ü marketing.

3. According to the program implementation period:

ü short-term, for a period of up to 3 years;

ü medium-term, for a period of 3-5 years;

ü long-term, for a period of over 5 years.

4. According to the degree of state support:

ü programs implemented entirely at the expense of the federal budget;

ü programs supported by the state with the involvement of non-state sources of financing;

ü joint territorial programs (state-supported programs for the socio-economic development of territories);

ü programs related to current activities federal authorities and management.

Evaluation of government programs includes evaluation of program preparation, evaluation of program implementation, evaluation of results, evaluation economic efficiency, assessment of consequences and effects. The methodology for assessing a state program is developed at the stage of formation of the program itself and must be adequate to its content. In practice, as a rule, the following are used: 1) the method of expert assessments; 2) methods of quantitative assessment. The change in the vector of development of the country's economy has led to a significant increase in the role of state programs as an instrument of public administration, as a way of implementing state policy aimed at effectively solving pressing problems of social and state development.

The orientation of the Russian state towards building democratic foundations and developing market relations predetermined the beginning of the process of forming a new paradigm of state forecasting and planning, legal basis which became Federal Law No. 115-FZ of July 20, 1995 “On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.” A legislative definition of the content of the concepts “concept of socio-economic development of Russia”, “program of socio-economic development”, “annual indicative plan for socio-economic development of Russia” was given. Fundamental changes in the system of public administration institutions have led to the fact that the long-term strategy for the socio-economic development of the country is being developed in accordance with the Messages of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and the Action Plan of the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of this message.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

STATE EDUCATIONAL BUDGETARY INSTITUTION

HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

"STATE UNIVERSITY - EDUCATIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION COMPLEX"

Department of ET and UP

COURSE WORK

discipline: "Strategic planning"

on the topic: “Forecasting and indicative planning of education development”

Student Tsygankova E. A.

Group 11-U(m)

Head E. A. Zbinyakova

Introduction

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system

Chapter 2 Goal setting for forecasting the development of the education system

1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of the education system

3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education in the Oryol region

Chapter 3 Indicative planning for the development of the education system

2 Methodological foundations, principles and forms of indicative planning for the development of the education system

Conclusion

Literature

Introduction

education forecasting planning

Russia is a federal state that unites subjects with their own specific level of socio-economic, cultural, and educational potential. The combination of a unified federal policy aimed at improving the quality of education, focused on the knowledge economy, with regional models for its implementation makes it possible to ensure the integration of the interests of the state and regions.

Throughout the modern world, the importance of education as the most important factor in the formation of a new quality of economy and social life is increasing along with the growing influence of human capital. The quality of life and educational potential of the population is largely determined by the level of education and culture of the residents, their worldview orientation and spiritual development, and the ability to systematically receive and use the necessary information. These factors influence the degree of inclusion of people living in the region in regional, national and global human processes of progressive development. Education that meets the modern needs of society and the labor market allows each person to develop the ability to quickly adapt to modern socio-economic realities, and this becomes the most important condition for successful and sustainable development. Common values accepted by the majority, culture and moral principles, as well as the intellectual, infrastructural, industrial and information potential created in our country, act as criteria for the quality of life of all residents of the region.

The inherited weak susceptibility of the existing education system to external demands and the deepening shortage of qualified personnel are a consequence of the incompatibility of the existing mechanisms of public administration with the tasks of creating favorable conditions for the development of the education system that meet the needs. The underdevelopment of mechanisms for involving public and professional organizations in solving pressing issues of the formation and implementation of educational policy is obvious. Conditions have not been created for the development of independent forms of assessing the quality of education, and mechanisms for identifying, supporting and disseminating the best examples of innovative educational activities have not been developed. Understanding this, the pedagogical community realizes that education needs innovative development.

Based on the foregoing, the purpose of this work is to consider, analyze forecasting and indicative planning for the development of the education system.

Chapter 1. Forecasting the development of the education system

1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

The role of education in solving the problems of socio-economic development of Russia is:

creating conditions for increasing individual competitiveness;
development of the innovation sphere;
changing the structure of the economy in favor of knowledge-intensive industries;
formation of labor resources capable of reproducing and developing the material and intellectual potential of the country;
ensuring social and professional mobility;
formation of the personnel elite of society, based on the free development of the individual.

The socio-economic development of the country is influenced primarily by:

development of a modern system of continuous education;
improving the quality of vocational education;
ensuring accessibility to quality general education;
increasing the investment attractiveness of the education sector.

The implementation of these directions of state policy in the field of education will make it possible in 2013 - 2020 to create conditions for increasing the competitiveness of the country, which is one of the goals of its socio-economic development, by solving a number of problems that hinder the development of education, such as:

inconsistency of current legislation with the goals of intensive development of the education system;
excessive state regulation of financial and economic activities and labor relations in the field of education with a lack of funds, insufficient freedom to use them and with a formal expansion of opportunities to attract resources to the field of education;
lack of requirements for the content and quality of education;
inconsistency resource provision sphere of education to the tasks of socio-economic development of the country.

The organizational basis for the implementation of state policy in the field of education should be the State Program for the Development of Education in Russia for the period from 2013 to 2020. The state program has 7 strategic guidelines:

· availability of kindergartens

· information transparency and public accountability

It consists of four key subroutines:

· "Development of vocational education." Its goal is to increase the contribution of vocational education to the socio-economic and cultural modernization of Russia, ensuring that every student is in demand by the economy and society;

· “Development of preschool general education and additional education of children” pursues the goal of creating equal opportunities in the education system for modern quality education and positive socialization of all children;

· "Development of a system for assessing the quality of information transparency." The subprogram is aimed at providing reliable and up-to-date information to consumers of educational services about decision-making processes in the education system for all participants in educational relations;

· "Involving youth in social practice"The goal is to create conditions for successful socialization and effective self-realization of youth.

The State Program for the Development of Education in Russia for 2013-2020 ensures the continuation of the modernization of Russian education.

Measures taken in 2007 - 2012 by federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments as part of the implementation of the Federal Education Development Program, the Concept for the Modernization of Russian Education for the Period until 2010, and other interdepartmental and departmental programs in the field of education, created a basis for the domestic education system to solve the following tasks aimed at strengthening its role in the socio-economic development of the country:

bringing the content of education, teaching technologies and methods for assessing the quality of education in accordance with the requirements of modern society;
development of management mechanisms adequate to the tasks of development of the education system;
creation of economic mechanisms that ensure the investment attractiveness of education.

The solution to these problems was achieved by improving the regulatory legal framework, personnel, information and material and technical support for the education sector.

) systematicity, which requires considering the forecast object and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships;

) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost;

) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object;

) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object;

) specificity, which presupposes mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only to the analyzed object.

State regulation of the education system should be based on a combination of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning, programming, scientific, financial, logistics and personnel support. Each of these elements of a single system performs functions unique to it; they act in a certain sequence.

Forecasting (long-term, medium-term and short-term) determines possible trends in the development of the education system under the influence of external and internal factors, evaluates the trajectories of its dynamics, the paths and consequences of influencing these trajectories, so that the optimal development path can be chosen in the forecast period.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of education development.

Financial support for the development of the education system in accordance with strategic and indicative plans, national and territorial programs and projects should be carried out on the basis of a combination of budgetary support for science and innovation with a system of tax and customs benefits and other financial and credit regulators, to create the interest of private investors in implementation of selected priorities, programs and projects.

Logistics support involves organizing work on the construction of new and major repairs of existing educational institutions (EIs) and medical and health infrastructure, providing the educational process with educational equipment and educational visual aids, information technology, textbooks, educational furniture, as well as on the basis of specially developed standards taking into account the specifics of the level of education.

2 Long-term forecasting

Long-term forecasting should occupy a leading place in the system of state regulation of the education system. This is due to a number of factors.

Firstly, the education system as a macrosystem has inertia in its development. The ongoing changes, shifts in the technological structure of the economy, changes in generations of people and technology, span several decades. Therefore, a sufficient horizon of vision is needed in order to assess the essence and trends of change, and choose the optimal trajectory for the development of the education system. For example, in the 21st century in developed countries, the transition to a post-industrial technological mode of production began, the structure of the economy is being transformed, and noospheric thinking is being implemented. In the context of globalization, these trends have an impact on developing countries and, to a lesser extent, on third world countries. In addition, these objective trends are superimposed on the contradictions of the ongoing socio-economic policies in specific countries. For example, in Russia, reforms carried out in the last two decades have changed the type of demographic development (trends towards depopulation and population aging are developing).

Secondly, hundreds of millions, or even billions, of rubles are invested in large national programs and projects in the field of education, and their implementation is delayed for decades. The correctness of the chosen strategic decision on programs and projects can only be assessed after 5 - 10 years. Strategic decisions made without foreseeing their consequences are costly. This is especially true for education. Examples include decisions on the transition to 12-year education at school, the mass liquidation of small-scale rural schools, the financing of universities on the basis of State Financial Institutions, etc. Therefore, in order to prevent strategic mistakes and failures, it is necessary to make decisions based on forecast assessments of the development of the education sector and its individual sectors.

Thirdly, the need for long-term forecasting especially increases in the context of modernization of the education system, when the chaotic nature and uncertainty of dynamic trajectories sharply increases.

Directions in the methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system

Theoretical foundations, practical experience and model apparatus have been accumulated abroad and in Russia for the development of long-term socio-economic and innovative-technological forecasting. However, it is necessary first of all to determine the theoretical foundations, methodology and classes of macromodels on which long-term forecasting of the education system should be based.

Summarizing the accumulated experience, we can distinguish three areas of methodology for predicting the dynamics of the education system.

Linear extrapolation methodology is based on identifying development trends over a sufficiently long period and extending them into the future with one or another adjustment based on expert assessments. Such forecast calculations are made on the basis of processing statistical series using correlation methods and modified Cobb-Douglas functions, constructing input-output balances, etc.

This methodology is quite reliable and gives results close to the truth within one phase of a long-term cycle. But it fails when trends change, at bifurcation points, when phases of cycles and, moreover, the cycles themselves change.

The Foresight methodology, based on collective expert assessment, makes it possible to collect, process and average the opinion of a large group of qualified scientists and specialists about trends and parameters of future development.

However, this methodology suffers from the following disadvantages: subjectivity of experts, a high degree of averageness of expert assessments, large teams of experts are characterized by a certain inertia of thinking and the desire to extend already observed trends into the future. Trajectories that differ from the majority opinion are actually discarded, whereas they may turn out to be the most realistic in certain cases. Also V.I. Vernadsky stated that the history of science at every step shows the correctness of individuals in their statements than entire corporations of scientists or hundreds and thousands of researchers adhering to prevailing views. The truth is often revealed to a greater extent to scientific heretics than to orthodox representatives of scientific thought. Ignoring and not accepting fundamentally new scientific ideas expressed by scientific heretics can lead to the wrong choice of priorities for scientific and technological development, loss of time and resources. In this case, turning points in trajectories and bifurcation points are often left behind, and the cyclical dynamics are reflected to a lesser extent.

The methodology, based on cyclical genetic patterns of development, makes it possible to take into account the rhythm of cyclical dynamics in the economy, genetic limitations, the limits of changes in the hereditary genotype when changing cycles, and the directions of variability of systems to adapt to changes in the environment. Therefore, it seems that the third version of the methodology should be chosen as a methodological basis for long-term forecasting of the development of the education sector. However, this choice does not exclude the development of forecasts and model calculations using the first two options of the methodology and comparison of the results obtained.

? cyclical development of the world and national economy;

? increase specific gravity technological methods of production of the V technological structure (TU) and laying the foundations of the VI TU;

? accelerated development of the technological breakthrough sector in comparison with the evolutionary improvement sector;

? the increasing role of science as a factor in improving the quality of education;

? continuous (annual) increase in education costs, the rate of growth in education costs exceeding the rate of economic growth, an increase in the knowledge intensity of education in developed countries;

? increasing the processes of globalization of education;

? accelerating the processes of obsolescence and updating pedagogical technologies;

? The gap in educational attainment between developed, developing and third world countries is increasing year after year.

Forecast development process.

The process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system should include the following stages: analytical, research, program and organizational. The analytical stage allows us to identify the state and development trends of the forecast object and compare them with the state and development trends of similar objects abroad. At this stage of developing the forecast, the results of the future development of science and education are determined, necessary and desirable to achieve a certain level of satisfaction of the needs of the individual and specific consumers of educational services (employers). The result of the research stage is the determination of the goals of the future scientific and innovative development of the education system in the form of a scientific and technical problem to be solved during the forecast period. At the program stage, possible ways to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system are determined, options for achieving the necessary and desired results, the time and probability of implementing these options are identified. The organizational stage includes the identification of possible options for the distribution of resources and sets of organizational and technical measures necessary to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system, as well as the most rational ways to achieve these goals. This stage completes a single cycle of predictive research, the purpose of which is to provide information that contributes to increasing the scientific validity of educational management.

To develop forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to justify and select a small range of general macro indicators for calculations and construction of balances for the main types of resources. The main features of the object of forecasting the education system include the following:

) difficulties,

) scale,

) the degree of its determinism,

) the nature of development over time,

) degree of information security,

) the nature of the object.

The object of forecasting in the education system can be: directions of scientific and innovative development; volume and cost structure; number and structure of teaching and scientific-pedagogical personnel; cost and structure of fixed assets; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

Since forecasting is a process of balancing needs and capabilities, the forecaster needs to take into account the patterns of development of the forecast background within a particular national economy. The development of Russian education is taking place against the backdrop of sharp and rather unpredictable changes in macroeconomic indicators. The collapse of the economy inevitably affects the economics of education in terms of reducing the effective demand of the state and the private sector in the market for educational services. This in turn led to a decrease in the financial support of the education system. Reducing the cost of education leads to the degradation and collapse of the educational level of the population, with formal indicators of an increase in the share of people with higher professional education, candidates and doctors of science in the structure of the number of people employed in the economy, since in such conditions there are processes of reduction in the number and aging of scientific and teaching personnel, deterioration material and technical base of science and education, reduction in the effectiveness of scientific activity.

The policy of accelerated denationalization and privatization of public property pursued in recent years is aimed at increasing the role of private business structures and reducing the role of the state in the economic life of the country. In this situation, the development of the education system will largely depend on the innovative activity of the entrepreneurial sector of the sector’s economy. This circumstance urgently requires the development of a forecast of effective demand of business structures in the educational services market in conditions when the state is curtailing education funding. When developing such a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the results of sociological research, from which it follows that the majority of managers of Russian enterprises are indifferent to science and education.

Long-term forecasting of the development of education, taking into account global trends, should be carried out on the basis of partnership between the state, science and education. To justify its strategic and innovative function in the field of education, the state needs a long-term vision of the prospects for Russia’s development against the backdrop of global trends and the country’s inclusion in globalization processes. Therefore, federal and regional government authorities should act as the general customer of such a forecast, finance its development and use the results obtained. Only science can be the developer of long-term forecasts - highly qualified scientists, independent in their judgments and assessments, who have knowledge of the laws of social development and the art of foreseeing the further course of events.

Forecasting the development of the education system should cover all main areas of development of science and educational (pedagogical) technologies. The objects of forecasting scientific and innovative development of the education system include: priority areas of scientific and innovative development; scientific and technical potential; technical re-equipment and modernization of the material and technical base of the industry; personnel training; organizational and economic management mechanism; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

The effectiveness of the development of the education system is largely determined not only by the power of the country’s total scientific and educational potential, but also by its optimal distribution between regions and sectors of the national economy. The results of economic and mathematical modeling indicate that the maximum function of the strength of interaction between science and education is achieved under the condition of “equal magnitude” of the powers of the scientific and technical potentials of interacting objects. For example, the strength of scientific and technical interaction between industries with a predominance of products (works, services) III and V TU is practically zero. From the above it follows the need to develop a forecast for the optimal placement of the country’s scientific and educational potential, its concentration on priority areas of educational development.

When developing forecasts for the development of the education system, all necessary information must be collected, and the information material must be replenished and re-evaluated many times. To build a predictive model, statistical data and expert (intuitive) assessments should be used in combination. Since simple extrapolation methods are not applicable to predict most indicators of science and education, the variables included in the model for the most part represent reasonable intuitive estimates and assumptions. Moreover, the degree of uncertainty of information obtained from such estimates and assumptions increases as the forecast horizon, complexity and scale of the scientific and technical problems being solved increase. The likelihood that the predicted events will actually occur depends on the quality of the experts and the scientific validity of their assessments and assumptions.

One of the most important tasks in improving the education system is modernizing the existing model of managing this system. IN modern conditions education management is, first of all, management of its development, goal-oriented for results. The final result is considered to be a personality capable of developing in a space of cultural diversity, active, independent, creative. It is creativity that expresses the measure of human universality and allows the individual to expand the horizons of his own life. Education is a complex object - a social system of information exchange between individuals, various types of their organizations (social, ethnic, religious, etc.) and the world community as a whole. Being a system, education itself is an element (subsystem) of a higher order system - society as a whole, and, thus, realizes its target functions based on the goals, objectives and standards inherent in a particular society.

Chapter 2. Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

The concept of innovative development of education is based on spiritual, cultural and social values that have developed over many centuries in continuous human activity in search of the meaning of life in the great megacultural space of Russia.

The goal of innovative development of education is to determine the conditions and mechanisms for their achievement, which:

will ensure qualitative changes in education itself, the education system and educational environments of the region to provide opportunities for a person to develop multifacetedly as a spiritual, creative and healthy personality in accordance with the requirements modern development region;
will create conditions for the interested participation of society in the development of education;
will fully take into account public demand from various groups of the population;
will contribute to the effective, competitive and sustainable socio-economic development of the country;
correspond to the development trends of modern Russia as a leading participant in global relations in the world.

Innovative development of education is based on the following principles:

the principle of advanced development of education;

principle of designing innovative development;

the principle of openness of education and public participation;

the principle of continuity of education;

principle of strategic investment;

the principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

The principle of advanced development of education.

The principle of accelerated development of education is applied as an adequate response to requests determined by the directions of the country’s socio-economic development until 2025. This principle means a mobile reorientation of the education system to prepare a person for life in rapidly changing conditions of intensive development of social and economic processes and a new quality of life, ready to quickly offer their participation, responding to the demands of society and the labor market.

The principle of designing innovative development of education.

This principle means that the approaches to innovation in education themselves must be innovative for the education system. Traditional industry and program approaches do not have time to respond to rapidly occurring changes in society, the country and the world. Realizing and taking into account current trends in the development of the country and region, it is necessary today to design processes in education that are adequate to these changes.

The principle of designing innovative development of education involves the development and implementation of projects aimed at the future - towards the sustainable long-term development of education.

The principle of openness of education and public participation.

The development of education is not so much a departmental and administrative process as a strategic direction of the country's development, affecting the interests of every person.

Taking this into account, the Concept of Innovative Development of Education is based on the principle of openness of education and public participation. This principle presupposes the achievement of public consent, on the basis of which government, society, business, public organizations and the professional teaching community assume obligations to jointly promote innovative educational processes. The achieved public agreement will make it possible to build constructive mutually beneficial relations between all subjects, which will ensure the necessary changes in such a complex socio-economic sphere of life in the region as education.

The principle of continuity of education.

The modern world is characterized by a transition to global processes, in which human knowledge and competencies based on them will play the most important role.

Continuous education of a person throughout his life is a factor in the mobility of society and its readiness for predictable changes. Providing the state and society with opportunities for a person to constantly develop and educate himself, regardless of age, state of health and other factors, contributes to the harmonization of social relations through the fair redistribution of knowledge as a person’s main capital. Possession of knowledge capital allows a person to effectively organize and manage his own life, and ensures the rights of everyone to self-realization.

The principle of strategic investment.

In a modern post-industrial information society, a person’s level of education has a direct impact on the quality of the created social product and its competitiveness. The main competitive quality of a person is his knowledge and competencies, social and professional mobility, the ability to initiate or support innovative production and management technologies, progressive processes of social development, and to actively participate in their implementation.

If society wants to develop over the long term, its strategic investments must be directed towards people, and therefore into their education.

The principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

2 Main directions and tasks of development of education in the Oryol region

As of September 1, 2012, the education system of the Oryol region is represented by 215 kindergartens, 407 institutions implementing general education programs, 5 orphanages,
95 institutions of additional education for children, 12 institutions of primary vocational education, 19 institutions of secondary vocational education, 7 institutions of higher vocational education and 5 branches of universities. The priority areas of work in the educational sector of the Oryol region are to ensure accessibility and quality of education for all social segments of the population in accordance with the requirements of today.

Throughout the entire period of activity, the regional education system has established itself as a highly qualified, knowledge-intensive industry, capable of efficiently fulfilling the tasks of educating the younger generation and professional training.

A multi-level education system based on the use of modern techniques has been created and operates effectively in the region.
and programs. To meet the increased demands of students
lyceums, gymnasiums, schools operate for education
with in-depth study of subjects. The region has seen an increase in the number of students enrolled in specialized training programs and in-depth study of certain general education subjects. The established practice of creating basic schools has made it possible to significantly improve and modernize the material and technical base of educational institutions in the region, create “points” for innovative development, and ensure the availability of quality education.

The strategy for the development of vocational education in the region provides for high-quality training in accordance with the modern level of development of science, technology and technology, increasing the competitiveness and professional mobility of graduates in the labor market. The result of this work is almost 100% employment of graduates in the first year after graduation.

Currently, there are a number of problems in the education system of the Oryol region, which are an obstacle to its effective functioning and successful development:

only 65% of general education institutions meet the basic requirements defined in the National Educational Initiative “Our New School”: About 10% of the buildings of all educational institutions currently require major repairs
and reconstruction, and almost 30% require serious ongoing repairs; The provision of school libraries with educational literature is about 40%. There is an urgent need to purchase textbooks that comply with the Federal State Educational Standard, and educational and methodological complexes for new educational courses and subjects;

the quality of services offered to children by additional education institutions is insufficient due to a weak material and technical base;

shortage of places in preschool educational institutions,
as well as general educational institutions with in-depth study of individual subjects; insufficient communication between vocational education institutions
with representatives of the developing labor market, the discrepancy between the content of vocational education and the tasks of ensuring the competitiveness of trained personnel; gyms and playgrounds equipped to varying degrees with the necessary equipment are available in only 69% and 92% of educational institutions;

The share of teachers who have worked in an educational institution in the Oryol region for over 20 years is almost 6 times more than teachers with experience from 5 to 10 years). State educational institutions of primary vocational education are experiencing a shortage of masters industrial training who own promising technologies and have experience working in modern production.

The current system of advanced training for teachers needs modernization, including the creation of an effective mechanism feedback between organizations providing additional vocational education services and the customer - state educational institutions and teachers.

The range of problems standing in the way of the development of education in the Oryol region in accordance with the request of the Russian state is complex in nature, therefore, the tasks set to overcome existing problems can be grouped into complexes, on the basis of which the following directions for the development of education in our region are determined:

development of a unified educational environment in the Oryol region;
ensuring accessibility and quality of education;
introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Oryol region and increasing its investment attractiveness.

A unified educational environment, which should be created in the Oryol region, involves focusing on the needs of citizens, public groups, the labor market, the state and ensures the free development of the individual, is aimed at the creative and healthy development of the individual, increasing the competitiveness of a person who has received professional training on the basis of free choice , and the formation of a regional personnel elite capable of reproducing and developing the resource and intellectual potential of the region The basis for creating a unified educational environment is the expansion at the level of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation of powers and opportunities, rights and responsibilities of the founders of educational institutions, as well as regional and local communities as consumers of services provided by the education system. The guarantor of the participation of all subjects in the formation of a unified educational environment in the Oryol region is the achievement of general public consent. State and municipal authorities of the Oryol region, state and municipal institutions, political and public organizations, joint-stock companies and individuals, associations of various types, everyone whose activities are actively developing in the region are invited to take part in the social contract.

Objectives for the development of education, ensuring the development of a unified educational environment in the Oryol region:

Carrying out a regional educational policy aimed at network interaction of all subjects of the unified educational environment of the Oryol region;

Creation of mechanisms for the formation, based on the needs of students, of targeted orders from the state, society, corporations and labor market demands, consolidated and supported by means of ordering the education system of the Oryol region and municipal education systems for the training and retraining of professional personnel of various profiles, levels and specializations of education;

Qualitative change in advanced training and retraining of personnel in the education system based on predictive and advanced planning of courses based on educational programs and disciplines focused on innovative approaches to education;

Creation of a unified information space of the Oryol region for an objective presentation to the population of all educational opportunities in the region, development of corporate educational culture;

Initiating management processes that increase the responsibility of founders for the activities of educational institutions.

The use of the program-target method in solving the assigned tasks will allow concentrating financial resources on program activities aimed at solving the priority tasks of developing the education system of the Oryol region.

3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

The priority direction of the educational sector in the Oryol region is to ensure accessibility and quality of education for all social segments of the population in accordance with the requirements of today.

To date, a regional the legislative framework, allowing full exercise of powers to implement the project at the regional and municipal levels. Relevant agreements have been concluded between the regional board and federal authorities. The regional budget provides funds for co-financing the activities of the national project. The right to education is a constitutional guarantee for every citizen.

The main goal of the development of education in the Oryol region is to create optimal conditions for providing accessible, high-quality and competitive education, regardless of the place of residence and income of students and pupils, which is achieved by solving the following tasks:

Satisfying the needs of children and youth in receiving preschool, general (including correctional), additional and vocational education.
Increasing the enrollment of children in preschool education and creating conditions for the development of preschool education.
Strengthening the material and technical base and resource support of the education system, including preserving and strengthening the health of students based on improving the sports and recreational complexes of educational institutions.
Increasing the efficiency of pedagogical, economic and managerial activities in the education system.
Improving the industry's staffing system.
Development of vocational guidance for schoolchildren, increasing their motivation to work in professions and specialties in demand in the labor market.
Development of effective models of interaction and cooperation of educational institutions, enterprises and organizations in the region.
Improving the state order for training personnel in the field of vocational education that meets the needs of the labor market

The activities of eight long-term regional target programs are aimed at solving these problems:

1.“Development of education in the Oryol region for 2011-2015”,

2.“Development of a network of preschool educational institutions in the Oryol region for 2011-2015”

3.“Social support and adaptation of pupils and graduates of boarding schools in the Oryol region for 2011-2013”

4.“Development of vocational education in the Oryol region for 2012-2016” “Health improvement and recreation of children in the Oryol region for 2012-2016”

.“Construction of warm sanitary and hygienic premises in educational institutions of the Oryol region for 2012-2014”

.“Improving catering in educational institutions of the Oryol region for 2013-2017”

.“Health improvement and recreation for children in the Oryol region for 2012-2016”

8.“Mortgage lending for young teachers for 2012-2016”

Chapter 3. Indicative planning for the development of the education system

1 Fundamentals of indicative planning for the development of the education system

The education system plays an important role in legitimizing the institutions of society. Both formal and informal institutions in the form of norms of behavior and ethical codes are introduced into consciousness and rationalized through the education system. Education can be an active agent of change in existing institutions. For example, the need for knowledge leads to the development of the education system, the growth of universities with their own goals, interests and ability to influence society, in particular, public administration. In turn, this can lead to changes in the attitudes and values of politicians and voters and thereby stimulate changes in the political and economic rules of society.

Thus, the socio-economic policy of the state and the education system are both autonomous and interdependent patterns, updating management by human resourses, considered as an integration factor. The most important feature of education management in modern conditions is that educational problems must be solved not only at the level of the educational system itself. The solution to these problems is a component of national policy. The instrument of state regulation of the functioning and development of the educational system is indicative management.

In the world practice of regulating economic development, it is generally accepted that the foundations of indicative planning were laid by the German scientist K. Landauer, who emigrated to the USA and published there in 1944 an extensive treatise “The Theory of National Economic Planning”. According to his concept, the government influences economic development through coordination and provision of information, relying on the ability to plan and economic regulation. Takes corrective actions, eliminates emerging deformations and periodically returns market relations to normal perfect competition, the economy - into a state of dynamic balance, consumption of the least protected segments of the population at the level of the socially recognized subsistence minimum.

Certain elements of long-term planning have been used since the end of the 19th century, and in the mid-thirties of the last century, bodies responsible for planning the industrial development of the country were created. In Europe, the leader of indicative planning can be considered France, which applied the experience of indicative planning in the mid-forties almost immediately after the end of the Second World War. Indicative plans made it possible to quickly mobilize targeted financial resources and implement government support measures for producers. It was indicative planning that acted as a counterweight to the free and spontaneous formation of market relations and helped to achieve a high level of competitiveness.

Indicative management in general is considered as a method of regulating the economy, which is based on a set of interrelated and balanced management goals developed as a result of forecasting, criteria for assessing management effectiveness, mechanisms for interaction with other methods of regulation: marketing, monitoring, the concept of economic growth, etc.

Indicative management is based on the coordination of actions of government bodies and institutions organizing the education system, aimed at creating sustainable development of education and improving its quality.

There is an analytical stage of indicative management - planning.

Indicative planning is considered as an analytical stage of indicative management, is recommendatory in nature and allows you to build a development plan in the conditions of the problem field of educational institutions and society, the contradictory interests of business and the state.

Indicative planning for the development of the education system acts as an institutionally separate block of indicative planning for the development of the Russian economy. The conceptual characteristics of indicative planning for Russia's socio-economic development are universal for all sectors of the economy, including education.

Thus, indicative planning in the management of the state economy, decomposed in all blocks, makes it possible to coordinate management processes to achieve effective development of both institutionalized sectors (subsystems) of the economy and the state economy as a whole.

Indicative planning of socio-economic development provides detailed development targeted programs linking the solution of the task to financial sources. Financing of target programs from the state budget, attracted loans, including those under government guarantees, is a direct tool for the implementation of indicative plans through the mechanisms of budget policy, state target programs, investment programs and projects, as well as various hidden subsidies and benefits for strategic industries and projects , important for achieving the goals of indicative plans.

3.2 Methodological foundations, principles and forms of indicative planning for the development of the education system

Methodological principles of institutionally oriented

indicative plans are defined:

the use of a resource-targeted approach, which involves structuring an indicative plan based on the main goals and priorities of the economy for the planned period, and their planning is determined by possible sources of financing;
A complex approach to the formation of a block of the most important, targeted, planned indicators;
taking into account the planning time horizon in determining indicators (in short term there are always more of them than in the long term);
monitoring the implementation of the indicative plan in terms of achieving indicative indicators, identifying the reasons that did not allow achieving the intended goals, for subsequent correction at the level of state programs;
use of the algorithm: analysis - forecast - implementation mechanisms (tools), which allows you to have a completed cycle of the indicative plan.

Let us note that the indicative plan cannot be failed. It just may not be achieved. Failure to achieve the indicators of the indicative plan necessitates an analysis of the reasons for the failure of the plan and the development of a set of measures to correct it, including in the field of determining standards, regulators, and limiters. Monitoring allows you to assess the accuracy and reliability of forecast estimates of indicative plans. The institutional system for developing indicative plans in education is represented by levels:

Monitoring the implementation of indicative development plans in the education system and achieving indicators at all levels allows us to form a hierarchy of goals for the state’s socio-economic development program for the new period. However, to implement the indicative planning strategy, it is necessary to ensure the development of education in all regions and municipalities of Russia on the basis of variable models of indicative plans, closely linked, first of all, to budget parameters.

In the practice of regulating the economy of a number of countries (USA, France, China, Indonesia, etc.), the following classification of forms of indicative plans has developed.

From the point of view of the goals set, there are three main forms of indicative plans:

The Oryol region has adopted a long-term regional target program “Development of education in the Oryol region for 2011-2015.” The overall goal of the Program is to create conditions for the most successful implementation strategic directions for the development of the education system of the Oryol region, aimed at improving the quality and efficiency of the educational services provided. This is ensuring the availability of high-quality general education, a phased transition to a new level of education based on information technology, creating conditions for preserving and strengthening the health of schoolchildren, education healthy image life, improving the quality of the educational process, obtaining education for children with disabilities, increasing the social status of education workers. The program is characterized by 9 main indicators. They allow us to obtain a holistic picture of the functioning of the region in the field of education.

Indicative planning consists of determining economic priorities. The indicative plan is of a recommendatory nature. In its content, the indicative planning process is similar to the consulting process, the main functions of which are information, orientation and stimulation.

The indicative management methodology is a set of interrelated and interdependent methods, techniques and procedures based on a system of indicators and which are the basis for making management decisions aimed at the effective functioning of the institutional sphere of the state economy in general and its industries in particular.

The methodology of indicative management in the field of education determines:

The education system is the key link connecting social processes and economic development processes. The effectiveness of the education system is determined from the standpoint of its ability to fulfill in the required volume and with the required level of quality the social and state task of preschool and school education, the business task of training professional personnel for enterprises and organizations, the task of developing scientific and technical personnel potential for fundamental and applied science and innovation. Based on this, the criteria for the final effectiveness of the education system are not located within it, but in related areas of public policy, public life and the economy of the state.

Indicators of the final effect of the education system are associated with indicators of the state of processes and resources as objects of improvement.

Thus, the subject of indicative planning should be: indicators of direct results (indicators of the final effect and quality of educational services), indicators of the state of processes and resources of the education system, indicators of the direct results of program activities that determine the measure of regulatory impacts on the education system.

The methodology of indicative planning in the field of education should take into account a number of features of management objects, namely:

territorial isolation, which determines the need to build information and communication networks with developed infrastructure, high throughput and other characteristics that must be laid down already at the level of designing an indicative plan for the development of territorial educational segments;
variety of existing hardware and software for various types educational institutions. This is due to the unevenness of the information support of educational institutions in past periods of time, which leads to a variety of inherited information systems, significantly complicating management;
weak controllability and stability of educational systems, manifested as a result of non-linear development caused by innovation.
Weak stability is caused by the instability of the trend in the development of the needs of the educational services market, the incompleteness of the structural and substantive reform of the Russian education system, problems in information support spheres of education management, vagueness in the description of facts and events of educational processes, etc.;
in the objectively lagging nature of management of educational systems. Inertia is associated with influence external factors and the objective need to transform random influences and information into conscious rules of behavior, as well as the very nature of interaction between the consumer of educational services and the surrounding social environment.

Let us note that the indicative planning methodology allows us to consider the process of managing the development of the education system from a systemic perspective, as a multi-level, multi-component process, allowing for the adaptation of a system approach to a specifically solved management problem at a given level of educational activity (federal, municipal, etc.). A management task determines the need to use a specific approach to implement it. Within the framework of the approach, it is possible to describe any aspect of the activity of an educational structure, including models of functions, processes, events initiating processes, information data and flows, organizational structure, its placement, plans and regulations of activities with detail on goals and objectives, resources, educational technologies and their supportive technical means.

Indicative planning involves the creation of process development models, determination of effective organizational structure management, development of rational ways to manage various aspects of educational activities.

The methodology of indicative management of educational systems is characterized by interdisciplinarity. The concept of the model of indicative management of the development of educational systems is determined by the multidimensional methodology. Interdisciplinarity is the functional core of maintaining stability in multidimensionality.

Analysis of the state of the education system at lower levels is the basis for designing regional/municipal programs and indicative plans for the long, medium and short periods, thereby allowing you to achieve or get closer to achieving the standard set by the federal level.

Quality is the basis of strategic management, defined as a process that represents a sequence of several stages-functions, including: strategic analysis, strategic forecasting, strategic planning, strategic organization and motivation, strategic control and regulation. Each stage ends with the achievement of a certain result. Strategy in the context of quality management of educational systems is considered as a system of actions regulated by the framework of an indicative plan, the characteristics of which are determined by the principles of universality, information interaction, taking into account the assessment of the state of functioning of the education system, taking into account the resources of the educational infrastructure in terms of development, reflexivity of the educational system, characterized by the concepts of sustainability, controllability, individuality, self-organization.

Thus, the model for managing the quality of education in Russia is essentially a multi-dimensional, multi-level and multi-factor project, centered on the State Program for the Development of Education and the universal model of the indicative plan.

The socio-economic policy of the state determines the conceptualization of indicative management. The practice of implementing the indicative management model acts as an indicator that confirms the chosen strategy or determines the need for its adjustment in order to maintain the stability of the functioning and development of the Russian education system.

Conclusion

In October 2012 Russian Government approved the State Program for the Development of Education until 2020, which is the organizational basis of state policy in the field of education. The state program determined the development strategy of this important area, its priority, the need for state support and real financing. Its main objectives are the formation of a system of continuous vocational education, the development of the infrastructure of schools and preschool institutions, and the creation of conditions for additional children's education. It is also planned to modernize school and preschool educational programs and create new system assessment of the quality of education.

The state program contains basic indicators that must be achieved by 2020 according to 7 strategic guidelines:

· attractiveness of the teaching profession

· availability of kindergartens

· improving the quality of school education

· support for the additional education system

· updating the system for training highly qualified personnel

· increasing the international competitiveness of universities

· information transparency and public accountability in education.

Organizationally, the state program consists of 4 subprograms dedicated to vocational education, children’s education (preschool, school, additional), development of a system for assessing the quality and information transparency of education, and youth policy. There is also a supporting subprogram: scientific, methodological, regulatory and legal support, monitoring studies, performance assessment).

The implementation of the main directions of development of the domestic education system, reforms at all its levels and ensuring the self-sufficient functioning of this most important sphere in the interests of the individual, society and the state is possible only if project goals, objectives, and main directions of modernization are communicated to specific educational institutions. In this regard, an important mechanism for implementing the State Education Development Program is the formation of regional and municipal education development programs on its basis.

Literature

1. Agapova T.N., Ivanova M.I. Forecasting indicators of general education at the level of a municipal district // Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. - 2007. - No. 2. - P.34-41.

2. The concept of modernization of Russian education for the period until 2010

Methods, models and systems for forecasting regional development: Tutorial/ Ed. G.R. Khasaeva. M.: Academy, 2006. - 380 p.

Sergeev N.G. etc. Monitoring system for analysis and forecasting of the development of education and educational structures of the Russian Federation. M.: Press, 2002. - 204 p.

Todosiychuk A.V. Forecasting the development of the education system // Education in documents. - 2008. - No. 7. - P.23-37.

Federal Law "On Education" dated January 13, 1996 N 12-FZ, dated November 16, 1997 N 144-FZ, dated July 20, 2000 N 102-FZ, dated August 7, 2000 N 122-FZ, dated February 13, 2002 N 20-FZ , from 03/21/2002 N 31-FZ, from 06/25/2002 N 71-ФЗ, from 07/25/2002 N 112-ФЗ, from 01/10/2003 N 11-ФЗ, from 07/07/2003 N 123-ФЗ, from 12/08/2003 N 169-ФЗ, dated 03/05/2004 N 9-ФЗ, dated 06/30/2004 N 61-ФЗ, dated 07/20/2004 N 68-ФЗ, dated 08/22/2004 N 122-ФЗ, as amended by the Resolution of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation dated October 24, 2000 N 13-P, Federal Laws dated December 27, 2000 N 150-FZ, dated December 30, 2001 N 194-FZ, dated December 24, 2002 N 176-FZ, dated December 23, 2003 N 186-FZ.

Federal target program for the development of education for 2006-2010.

State program for the development of education 2013-2020

9. Agibalov V.V. “Accessibility and quality of education for all segments of the population” // Education and Society. - 2099. No. 5

Mill J. S. Fundamentals of Political Economy: T. I. - M.: Progress, 1980.

Tutoring

Need help studying a topic?

Our specialists will advise or provide tutoring services on topics that interest you.
Submit your application indicating the topic right now to find out about the possibility of obtaining a consultation.

FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATION

(using the example of the Novosibirsk region)

Introduction

Conclusion

Glossary

Literature

Introduction

Russia is a federal state that unites subjects with their own specific level of socio-economic, cultural, and educational potential.

The quality of life and educational potential of the population is largely determined by the level of education and culture of the residents, their ideological orientation and spiritual development, and the ability to systematically receive and use the necessary information. These factors influence the degree of inclusion of people living in the region in regional, national and global human processes of progressive development. Education that meets the modern needs of society and the labor market allows each person to develop the ability to quickly adapt to modern socio-economic realities, and this becomes the most important condition for successful and sustainable development. The common values accepted by the majority, culture and moral principles, as well as the intellectual, infrastructural, industrial and information potential created in our region, act as criteria for the quality of life of all residents of the region.

The inherited weak susceptibility of the existing education system to external demands and the deepening shortage of qualified personnel are a consequence of the incompatibility of the existing mechanisms of public administration with the tasks of creating favorable conditions for the development of the education system that meet the needs of the region. The underdevelopment of mechanisms for involving public and professional organizations in solving pressing issues of the formation and implementation of educational policy is obvious. Conditions have not been created for the development of independent forms of assessing the quality of education, and mechanisms for identifying, supporting and disseminating the best examples of innovative educational activities have not been developed. Understanding this, the pedagogical community realizes that education needs innovative development.

Based on the above, the purpose of this work is to predict the development of the education system using the example of the Novosibirsk region.

Consider the theoretical foundations for forecasting the development of education;

Develop a concept for the development of education;

Analyze and draw conclusions about the feasibility of social forecasting.

The object of the study is education as an integral structure.

The subject of study is forecasting the development of education as an integral system.

The research hypothesis is as follows: The use of forecasting will allow us to determine priorities in the development (formation) of the economics of the education system; management methods in this industry; and the direction of transformations corresponding to the economic, political and social changes occurring in society.

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system

1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

The role of education in solving the problems of socio-economic development of Russia is:

creating conditions for increasing individual competitiveness;

development of the innovation sphere;

changing the structure of the economy in favor of knowledge-intensive industries;

formation of labor resources capable of reproducing and developing the material and intellectual potential of the country;

ensuring social and professional mobility;

formation of the personnel elite of society, based on the free development of the individual.

The socio-economic development of the country is influenced primarily by:

development of a modern system of continuous education;

improving the quality of vocational education;

ensuring accessibility to quality general education;

increasing the investment attractiveness of the education sector.

The implementation of these directions of state policy in the field of education will make it possible in 2006 - 2010 to create conditions for increasing the country's competitiveness, which is one of the goals of its socio-economic development, by solving a number of problems hindering the development of education, such as:

inconsistency of current legislation with the goals of intensive development of the education system;

lack of requirements for the content and quality of education;

discrepancy between the resource provision of the education sector and the tasks of the country’s socio-economic development.

The organizational basis for the implementation of state policy in the field of education should be the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006 - 2010 (hereinafter referred to as the Program), ensuring the continued modernization of Russian education. Measures taken in 2001 - 2005 by federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments within the framework of the implementation of the Federal Education Development Program, the Concept for the Modernization of Russian Education for the Period until 2010, and other interdepartmental and departmental programs in the field of education, created a basis for the domestic education system to solve the following tasks aimed at strengthening its role in the socio-economic development of the country:

bringing the content of education, teaching technologies and methods for assessing the quality of education in accordance with the requirements of modern society;

development of management mechanisms adequate to the tasks of development of the education system;

creation of economic mechanisms that ensure the investment attractiveness of education.

The solution to these problems is achieved by improving the regulatory legal framework, the necessary personnel, information and material and technical support for the education sector.

1) systematicity, which requires considering the forecast object and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships;

2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost;

3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object;

4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object;

5) specificity, which presupposes mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only to the analyzed object.

State regulation of the education system should be based on a combination of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning, programming, scientific, financial, logistics and personnel support. Each of these elements of a single system performs functions unique to it; they act in a certain sequence.

Forecasting (long-term, medium-term and short-term) determines possible trends in the development of the education system under the influence of external and internal factors, evaluates the trajectories of its dynamics, the paths and consequences of influencing these trajectories, so that the optimal development path can be chosen in the forecast period.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of education development.

Financial support for the development of the education system in accordance with strategic and indicative plans, national and territorial programs and projects should be carried out on the basis of a combination of budgetary support for science and innovation with a system of tax and customs benefits and other financial and credit regulators, to create the interest of private investors in implementation of selected priorities, programs and projects.

1.2 Long-term forecasting

Long-term forecasting should occupy a leading place in the system of state regulation of the education system. This is due to a number of factors.

Firstly, the education system as a macrosystem has inertia in its development. The ongoing changes, shifts in the technological structure of the economy, changes in generations of people and technology, span several decades. Therefore, a sufficient horizon of vision is needed in order to assess the essence and trends of change, and choose the optimal trajectory for the development of the education system. For example, in the 21st century in developed countries, the transition to a post-industrial technological mode of production began, the structure of the economy is being transformed, and noospheric thinking is being implemented. In the context of globalization, these trends have an impact on developing countries and, to a lesser extent, on third world countries. In addition, these objective trends are superimposed on the contradictions of the ongoing socio-economic policies in specific countries. For example, in Russia, reforms carried out in the last two decades have changed the type of demographic development (trends towards depopulation and population aging are developing).

Secondly, hundreds of millions, or even billions, of rubles are invested in large national programs and projects in the field of education, and their implementation is delayed for decades. The correctness of the chosen strategic decision on programs and projects can only be assessed after 5 - 10 years. Strategic decisions made without foreseeing their consequences are costly. This is especially true for education. Examples include decisions on the transition to 12-year education at school, the mass liquidation of small-scale rural schools, the financing of universities on the basis of State Financial Institutions, etc. Therefore, in order to prevent strategic mistakes and failures, it is necessary to make decisions based on forecast assessments of the development of the education sector and its individual sectors.

Directions in the methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system

Summarizing the accumulated experience, we can distinguish three areas of methodology for predicting the dynamics of the education system.

3. A methodology based on cyclical genetic patterns of development allows one to take into account the rhythm of cyclical dynamics in the economy, genetic limitations, the limits of changes in the hereditary genotype when changing cycles, and the directions of variability of systems to adapt to changes in the environment.

Therefore, it seems that the third version of the methodology should be chosen as a methodological basis for long-term forecasting of the development of the education sector. However, this choice does not exclude the development of forecasts and model calculations using the first two options of the methodology and comparison of the results obtained.

― cyclical development of the world and national economy;

― increasing the share of technological methods of production of the V technological order (TU) and laying the foundations of the VI TU;

― accelerated development of the technological breakthrough sector in comparison with the sector of evolutionary improvement;

― increasing the role of science as a factor in improving the quality of education;

― continuous (annual) increase in education costs, the growth rate of education costs exceeding the economic growth rate, an increase in the knowledge intensity of education in developed countries;

― increasing the processes of globalization of education;

― acceleration of the processes of obsolescence and updating of pedagogical technologies;

― an increase from year to year in the gap in the educational level of developed, developing and third world countries.

Forecast development process

The process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system should include the following stages: analytical, research, program and organizational. The analytical stage allows us to identify the state and development trends of the forecast object and compare them with the state and development trends of similar objects abroad. At this stage of developing the forecast, the results of the future development of science and education are determined, necessary and desirable to achieve a certain level of satisfaction of the needs of the individual and specific consumers of educational services (employers). The result of the research stage is the determination of the goals of the future scientific and innovative development of the education system in the form of a scientific and technical problem to be solved during the forecast period. At the program stage, possible ways to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system are determined, options for achieving the necessary and desired results, the time and probability of implementing these options are identified. The organizational stage includes the identification of possible options for the distribution of resources and sets of organizational and technical measures necessary to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system, as well as the most rational ways to achieve these goals. This stage completes a single cycle of predictive research, the purpose of which is to provide information that contributes to increasing the scientific validity of educational management.

1) difficulties,

2) scale,

3) the degree of its determinism,

4) the nature of development over time,

5) degree of information security,

Since forecasting is a process of balancing needs and capabilities, the forecaster needs to take into account the patterns of development of the forecast background within a particular national economy. The development of Russian education is taking place against the backdrop of sharp and rather unpredictable changes in macroeconomic indicators. The collapse of the economy inevitably affects the economics of education in terms of reducing the effective demand of the state and the private sector in the market for educational services. This in turn led to a decrease in the financial support of the education system. Reducing the cost of education leads to the degradation and collapse of the educational level of the population, with formal indicators of an increase in the share of people with higher professional education, candidates and doctors of science in the structure of the number of people employed in the economy, since in such conditions there are processes of reduction in the number and aging of scientific and teaching personnel, deterioration material and technical base of science and education, reduction in the effectiveness of scientific activity.

The effectiveness of the development of the education system is largely determined not only by the power of the country’s total scientific and educational potential, but also by its optimal distribution between regions and sectors of the national economy. The results of economic and mathematical modeling indicate that the maximum function of the strength of interaction between science and education is achieved under the condition of “equal magnitude” of the powers of the scientific and technical potentials of interacting objects. For example, the strength of scientific and technical interaction between industries with a predominance of products (works, services) III and V TU is practically zero. From the above it follows the need to develop a forecast for the optimal placement of the country’s scientific and educational potential, its concentration on priority areas of educational development.

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education using the example of the Novosibirsk region

2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on spiritual, cultural and social values that have developed over many centuries in continuous human activity in search of the meaning of life in the great megacultural space of Russia and its integral part - Siberia.

The goal of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is to determine the conditions and mechanisms for their achievement, which:

will create conditions for the interested participation of society in the development of education;

will fully take into account public demand from various groups of the population;

will contribute to the effective, competitive and sustainable socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region;

correspond to the development trends of modern Russia as a leading participant in global relations in the world.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the directions for the development of education for 2006-2010 proposed by the Federal Target Program and specially developed principles. It is on the basis of these principles that systemic changes should occur in education in the Novosibirsk region, ensuring its accessibility, quality, continuity and investment attractiveness.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the following principles:

the principle of advanced development of education;

principle of designing innovative development;

the principle of openness of education and public participation;

the principle of continuity of education;

principle of strategic investment;

the principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

1. The principle of advanced development of education.

The principle of accelerated development of education is applied as an adequate response to requests determined by the directions of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region until 2025. This principle means a mobile reorientation of the education system to prepare a person for life in rapidly changing conditions of intensive development of social and economic processes and a new quality of life, ready to quickly offer their participation, responding to the demands of society and the labor market.

2. The principle of designing innovative development of education.

This principle means that the approaches to innovation in education themselves must be innovative for the education system. Traditional industry and program approaches do not have time to respond to rapidly occurring changes in society, the country and the world. Realizing and taking into account current trends in the development of the country and region, it is necessary today to design processes in education that are adequate to these changes.

3. The principle of openness of education and public participation.

Taking this into account, the Concept of Innovative Development of Education is based on the principle of openness of education and public participation. This principle presupposes the achievement of public consent, on the basis of which the government, society, business, public organizations and the professional teaching community assume obligations to jointly promote innovative educational processes in the Novosibirsk region. The achieved public agreement will make it possible to build constructive mutually beneficial relations between all subjects, which will ensure the necessary changes in such a complex socio-economic sphere of life in the region as education.

4. The principle of continuous education.

The modern world is characterized by a transition to global processes, in which human knowledge and competencies based on them will play the most important role.

Continuous education of a person throughout his life is a factor in the mobility of society and its readiness for predictable changes. Providing the state and society with opportunities for a person to constantly develop and educate himself, regardless of age, state of health and other factors, contributes to the harmonization of social relations through the fair redistribution of knowledge as a person’s main capital. Possession of knowledge capital allows a person to effectively organize and manage his own life, and ensures the rights of everyone to self-realization.

5. The principle of strategic investment.

If society wants to develop over the long term, its strategic investments must be directed towards people, and therefore into their education.

6. The principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

2.2 Main directions and tasks of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The range of problems standing in the way of the development of education in the Novosibirsk region in accordance with the request of the Russian state is complex in nature, therefore, the tasks set to overcome existing problems can be grouped into complexes, on the basis of which the following directions for the innovative development of education in our region are determined:

development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region;

ensuring accessibility and quality of education;

development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region;

introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness.

A unified educational environment, which should be created in the Novosibirsk region, involves focusing on the needs of citizens, public groups, the labor market, the state and ensures the free development of the individual, is aimed at the creative and healthy development of the individual, increasing the competitiveness of a person who has received professional training on the basis of free choice , and the formation of a regional personnel elite capable of reproducing and developing the resource and intellectual potential of the region.

The basis for creating a unified educational environment is the expansion at the level of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation of powers and opportunities, rights and responsibilities of the founders of educational institutions, as well as regional and local communities as consumers of services provided by the education system. The guarantee of the participation of all subjects in the formation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region is the achievement of general public consent. State and municipal authorities of the Novosibirsk region, state and municipal institutions, political and public organizations, joint-stock companies and individuals, associations of various types, everyone whose activities are actively developing in the region are invited to take part in the social contract.

Objectives of innovative development of education, ensuring the development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region:

1. implementation of regional educational policy aimed at network interaction of all subjects of the unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region;

5. initiation of management processes that increase the responsibility of founders for the activities of educational institutions.

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

The right to education is a constitutional guarantee for every citizen.

To achieve accessibility and quality of education in the Novosibirsk region during its innovative development, it is necessary to solve the following problems:

1. carry out a continuous educational process at its various levels, ensuring the maintenance of human health and the development of its potential;

2. develop and implement a regional state-public system for assessing the quality of education, the activities of educational institutions and organizations.

3. annually hold regional competitions for the development and implementation of projects in the areas of innovative development of education;

4. introduce models of integrated educational institutions that implement, among other things, adapted educational programs at various levels, providing equal starting opportunities for the education of children, regardless of their social, racial and religious background, psychophysical health, and the level of well-being of their families or guardians;

5. develop a system of continuous professional education focused on the needs of all categories of citizens in building their own educational and professional trajectories.

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of process management in education in the Novosibirsk region

Today, a clear conclusion has been made that the development of education is impossible without its openness to society. Openness lies not so much in the regular publication and public presentation of reports by educational authorities and educational institutions on their activities, but in public participation in educational activities.

Openness will allow the education of the Novosibirsk region to obtain an objective picture of its development, free itself from existing stereotypes, and enter into a constructive public dialogue that develops interactions and ensures mutual enrichment.

The openness of education is ensured by the principle of state and public management laid down in the Federal Law “On Education”. This principle must be implemented in advance of many other processes in education, since the innovative development of education is impossible without broad public support and active public participation in the development of educational policy and the search for effective ways to ensure accessible and high-quality education.

On the path to the development of social and civil forms of education management, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. test and begin to implement effective models of state and public management that contribute to the development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions as an important condition for the openness and investment attractiveness of education;

2. to work out the mechanisms for managing educational institutions when changing the organizational and legal forms of their activities in the conditions of increasing economic independence of educational institutions, increasing the transparency of financing, strengthening their responsibility for the effectiveness of the educational process and performance results;

3. carry out project developments in terms of building interaction between vocational education institutions and employers, ensuring the attraction of additional material, intellectual and other resources into the field of education.

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

The transition from financing educational institutions to financing consumers of educational services is the basis of the modern budget economics of education. It is also fundamental to create a system of economic motivation for teachers for their professional growth. Particular attention should be paid to stipulating in the contracts of employees of educational management bodies of administrations and administrative employees of educational institutions an assessment of their activities depending on the quality of education in the region, municipality or educational institution.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is aimed at introducing effective financial and economic mechanisms that ensure the quality of educational processes and the efficiency of spending budget funds, as well as increasing the investment attractiveness of education.

Solving existing problems on the path of economically sustainable development of education in the Novosibirsk region is possible by performing the following tasks:

1. develop, test and implement a regional model of multi-channel financing of educational institutions and organizations of all levels, types and types;

2. develop, test and implement effective technologies for managing the quality of education, ensuring its investment attractiveness;

3. actively use proven and design new mechanisms, including regulatory and legal ones, for the effective use of budget funds;

4. develop and implement a system of economic motivation for the work of education workers, related to their application in their professional practice of the principles of innovative development of education;

5. carry out a long-term economic and program analysis of the possibility of multidisciplinary training of personnel ready to work in the new conditions of the education system of the Novosibirsk region on the basis of higher education institutions.

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

Currently, the volumes and list of specialties and professions for which young workers and specialists are trained are often planned on the basis of outdated or insufficiently verified information that does not reflect changes in the labor market and does not take into account the capacity of the labor market. As a result, some graduates risk obtaining specialties that are no longer in demand on the labor market (for example, there are known imbalances in training in the specialties “lawyer”, “economist”, “accountant”). On the other hand, there is a growing imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, associated with the ratio of levels of professional education. Thus, it should be noted that there is a double structural imbalance in the demand and supply of jobs in the regional labor market: by level of education (primary, secondary, higher vocational education) and in terms of professional qualifications.

Forecasting the needs of the labor market in these conditions is considered as an important component of the marketing information necessary for the development of measures to regulate and control changes in the educational services market, for strategic planning of a demand-oriented system of training and retraining.

Drawing up long-term balances of labor supply and demand is the main component of the mechanism for managing the human resources potential of the region, an important component of an effective model of organizational and economic interaction between regional vocational education systems and labor markets. But, as a rule, forecasts and economic development programs prepared in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are based on information received from state statistics bodies and reflecting the employment structure only in a sectoral context. Currently available statistical data do not allow us to assess the dynamics of employment in the context of the professional and qualification structure of jobs in the regional economy. This information is clearly insufficient for planning a personnel training system. The sectoral structure of employment does not provide information about the professional qualifications of workers (in agriculture, these can be livestock breeders and winegrowers), nor about the required level of education (in livestock farming, these can be veterinarians and milkmaids). On the other hand, a worker’s professional qualifications are not necessarily strictly tied to a particular sector of the economy: for example, the profession of a driver is universal and is present in the statistics of every sector of the economy.

The development of the methodology was based on the following basic ideas:

1. Since forecasting the personnel needs of the region is the main link in the holistic mechanism of interaction between regional labor markets and vocational education, and the target for developing the forecast is its use for the formation of an annual regional order for personnel training in the system of primary, secondary and higher vocational education, the market analysis methodology labor suggests that forecasting the professional and personnel needs of the economy should be built not in the context of industry, but in the context of professions and specialties.

2. As the analysis of existing approaches to the development of medium-term personnel forecasts has shown, none of the methods used can be considered satisfactory from the point of view of achieving the forecasting goals. A complementary approach is needed, including various methods of research and forecasting of the labor market.

3. It is advisable to use as additional research methods:

secondary analysis of statistical data and identification of trends in employment;

analysis of programs and projects for the socio-economic development of the region;

analysis of plans and investment programs in the real sector of the regional economy;

analysis of demographic statistics.

4. The main method of collecting information should be a direct survey of employers in the region, since the structures of current and future employment, even at homogeneous enterprises, have significant differences. With this approach, it is possible to partially neutralize the factor of interchangeability of specialists, since the immediate managers of enterprises (HR services) are quite well aware of the specific specifics of the employment structure. This is the difference between the proposed methodology and the methodology developed, for example, by the National Board of Education of Finland.

2.7 Updated main forecast indicators of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region in 2009

Negative manifestations in the global and Russian economy during 2009 and to a certain extent in the subsequent period will be a serious factor determining the pace of socio-economic development of the region.

In these conditions, the rate of economic growth will be affected by the existing shortcomings of a systemic nature - the low level of competitiveness of enterprises due to low labor productivity, unreasonably high energy consumption and resource intensity, aging of fixed assets and technological backwardness, unpromising and insufficiently high quality consumer properties of the products of a number of enterprises.

Problems hampering the development of consumer and investment demand, as well as the high level of competition for financial investment resources, will become more severe due to their increasing shortage.

An important advantage of the region is the high level of concentration of science and professional education, which, in the presence of an effective innovation system, increased motivation of the production sector to update technologies and develop new products, can become an effective source of development of the high-tech sector of the economy.

The emergence in recent years of large retail trade networks and the development of wholesale companies increases the demand for logistics services, which, together with the strengthened role of the Novosibirsk region as the largest interregional and international transport hub in the eastern part of Russia, is an important condition for continuing the investment process in creating a system of modern transport and logistics complexes .

The developed financial infrastructure of the Novosibirsk region, including the leading banking sector in the region, the largest regional exchange platforms: stock, currency and commodity, create conditions for the concentration of financial resources, technologies and specialists in the field of finance.

The stability of the functioning of the economy and social sphere of the region in the conditions of negative manifestations of the crisis will be ensured by a relatively high share of the budget sector in comparison with other constituent entities of Russia. In the structure of those employed in the regional economy, those employed in the public sector account for about 25%. This area in 2009 will be least susceptible to crisis phenomena, will ensure stable employment, increased wages for those employed in it, as well as stable effective demand in the market for consumer goods and services (Table 1).

Even in the presence of a number of factors that ensure relative stability of the economy and social sphere in the planning period, difficult economic conditions place special demands on the effectiveness of management actions, the elaboration and formation of multivariate management decisions, and the involvement of expert specialists and participants in the transformation process in the development of such decisions.

In the planning period, the concentration of efforts of executive bodies of state power and budgetary funds will be focused on the development of science and education, the development of markets and maintaining the effective demand of the population, investment processes, technical and technological renewal of production and the creation of new knowledge-intensive enterprises, the development of housing construction, support and development of small and medium-sized businesses, optimization and increasing the efficiency of social services.

Table 1 - Stability of functioning of the economy and social sphere of the Novosibirsk region

The name of indicators	Unit	2008 estimate	2009 forecast
Gross regional product	billion rubles
Gross regional product index	in% to previous year
Gross regional product per capita	thousand rubles
Industrial production index	in% to previous year
Gross agricultural output index	in% to previous year
Index of the volume of work performed by type of activity "construction"	in% to previous year
Freight turnover of transport organizations	in% to previous year
Passenger turnover of transport organizations	in% to previous year
Retail trade turnover index	in% to previous year
Index of the volume of paid services to the population	in% to previous year
Volume of investments in fixed assets	billion rubles
Fixed capital investment volume index	in% to previous year
Volume of investments in fixed assets per capita	thousand rubles
Resident population (annual average)	thousand people
Total fertility rate	people per 1000 population
Natural increase rate	people per 1000 population
Migration growth rate	people per 1000 population
Number of labor resources	thousand people
Average annual consumer price index	in% to previous year
Maximum increase in tariffs for housing and communal services for the population	in% to previous year
Employees' wage fund	billion rubles
Real disposable income of the population	in% to previous year
The cost of living

Noting that the actual growth rates of most indicators of the socio-economic development of the region are ahead of the forecast ones, the Governor of the region emphasized the following: “We are relying on the development of the scientific and educational complex and an innovative economy aimed at producing a unique product. I am convinced that economic effect this will be much higher than in regions relying on traditional sectors of the economy. This effect should lead to a significant increase in income and other indicators of quality of life. For example, within a three-year period we are ready to reach the normal regime of housing affordability that exists in developed countries, when the income of the population, on the one hand, and management decisions in the field of housing lending, on the other, are capable of making housing truly affordable for the absolute majority of the economically active population.”

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

The method and mechanisms for its implementation involved in the framework of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region are aimed at:

to change the dominant attitude towards education as a costly sector of the economy towards the understanding that education is a strategic resource for economic development.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the design and software method.

The use of the design and program method will allow us to assess the readiness of the education system of the Novosibirsk region for innovative development (Table 2).

Table 2 - Development of a network of general educational institutions in the region: providing conditions for obtaining high-quality general education regardless of place of residence

Indicator name		Liabilities
Indicator name
Share of schoolchildren (%) studying in general education institutions that meet modern requirements for the conditions of the educational process
The average class size in general education institutions located in urban areas is within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards
The average class size in general education institutions located in rural areas is within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards
Creating for senior level students the opportunity to choose a training profile provided with the necessary equipment and highly qualified personnel for the high-quality implementation of relevant educational programs in each subject and effective in terms of the use of educational resources

The proposed mechanisms for implementing innovative development of education are tools for the design and software method.

1. Mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development

Through this mechanism, the principle of advanced development of education is largely implemented. Another effect is that information flows in the education system should change qualitatively through the use of modern technologies for creating databases about education and educational environments, prompt collection, processing and dissemination of statistical and other information.

The launch of a mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development will allow us to resolve pressing problems existing in the Novosibirsk region, which include:

lack of a system of public and public services that promote the employment and employment of graduates of educational institutions;

underdevelopment of the regional network of analytical and information educational centers for forecasting, monitoring and marketing of educational services.

2. Mechanism for creating systemic educational complexes

A systemic educational complex is being created at the level of the municipality (urban district) of the Novosibirsk region and includes educational and other organizations and institutions of various levels, types and types, innovative educational programs, technologies and methods, as well as management infrastructure.

The goal of the systemic educational complex is to integrate the resources of the territory, create comprehensive conditions for diagnosing the educational potential of an individual, predictively building and implementing continuous educational and professional trajectories of all participants in the educational process. The systemic educational complex provides education:

from the level of preschool education,

through the level of acquisition of knowledge and competencies based on state standards and the choice of educational profile and profession at the stage of general education,

to the individual choice of the level of his professional education (primary, secondary or higher), as well as the opportunity for everyone to quickly undergo professional retraining or receive education in a new specialty.

Systemic educational complexes are focused on the prospects for economic, social and cultural development of the territory, and also take into account climatic and natural specifics.

The creation of systemic educational complexes is carried out on a competitive basis through the development of regional, municipal or public innovative educational projects that introduce and test:

integrated and network approaches to continuous general and professional education;

principles of state and public management of educational institutions;

3. Mechanism for targeted network implementation of innovations at the municipal level

The mechanism of targeted network implementation of innovations at the level of municipalities implies that applications for participation in innovation activities are submitted exclusively by municipal authorities or structures of state and public education management as guarantors of the implementation of innovative projects and the creation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region. Within the framework of one application (participation of several applicants is possible), the creation of at least two interacting systemic educational complexes can be presented.

The mechanism of targeted network innovation creates favorable conditions for the development of the principles of strategic investment and design of innovative development. Special conditions are created to implement the principle of openness of education and public participation. Within the framework of the mechanism under consideration, this principle is implemented through the proactive development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions at various levels, the formation of regional and municipal educational policies, and participation in assessing the quality of education.

The forms of public and civil participation in education management include:

councils of participants in the educational process and councils of educational institutions;

councils of graduates of educational institutions;

boards of trustees and foundations of educational institutions;

municipal organizations and regional association of teachers and lecturers;

regional association of educational leaders;

funds for the development of education in municipalities and in the Novosibirsk region,

Public Chamber of the Novosibirsk Region;

employers' associations, etc.

It is the state-public structures of education management and determination of educational policy that ensure broad social interaction, develop network cooperation of educational institutions of different levels, types and types, their coordinated partnership with other associations of citizens living or actively carrying out their activities in the territory where educational institutions are formed and developed. Wednesday .

4. A mechanism for attracting investment in education through public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy

Public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy is the most effective mechanism for attracting investment in education through:

creating effective socio-economic relations between various subjects of the educational services market:

educational institutions of different levels, different types and types;

parents, state and municipal organizations and institutions, as well as the labor market as the main customers of the quality of education and training of specialists;

business incubators, consulting firms, etc.;

development of funds created by boards of trustees and alumni councils of educational institutions;

creation and development of a system of regional and municipal support for educational lending as an effective tool for increasing accessibility, first of all, of the vocational education system.

5. Mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services

Project like organizational form innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is fully consistent with the abandonment of estimated financing of educational institutions and the transition to a mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services.

Regulatory financing will objectively lead to innovative processes in education, which include:

creation of progressive methods for calculating regulatory funding for different levels of education, types and types of educational institutions;

development of a legislative and regulatory framework that increases the financial and economic independence and responsibility of educational institutions for the quality of educational services;

development of mechanisms for multi-channel and multi-level financing of educational institutions;

ensuring diversity of organizational and legal forms of educational institutions at different levels through the development of an appropriate regulatory framework;

formation of motivation of education workers, educational institutions, educational authorities for innovative development.

Risks

When implementing the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region, risks may arise associated with:

with underestimation of the principle of management by results;

with an inadequate interpretation on the part of the education system of the selected principles and directions of innovative development of education;

with the inertia of the legislator in matters of changing currently existing approaches to providing financial and economic independence to educational institutions;

with the unpreparedness of the education system to implement the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region;

with weak coordination of the actions of various subjects of educational policy.

2.9 Assessment of the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region offers modern approaches to assessing the quality and effectiveness of education. In accordance with such approaches, the evaluation system relies more on qualitative criteria and indicators, the main of which are focused on long-term effects, and their assessment is delayed in time in manifestations and measurements.

The qualitative long-term effects of the implementation of the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region can be divided into two groups.

The first is the lasting effects in the innovative work of educational institutions and educational authorities. These include:

diagnosable solutions to assigned tasks and achieving the goal of innovative development of educational institutions or the education system in a municipality;

long-term and budget-supported planning of innovative processes carried out by educational institutions or educational authorities;

the duration of the proactive participation of teaching staff of educational institutions and specialists of educational authorities in innovative activities;

a stable positive attitude of participants in the educational process towards the innovative development of education;

the presence of competition in the framework of participation in educational processes among partners of educational institutions or educational authorities;

extension by partners of proposals for participation in events and programs planned as part of the innovative development of education, including regional, national and international; and etc.

The second group should include effects associated with long-term support for the innovative activities of an educational institution and education management body from society. Among them:

a constant increase in partnership offers to an educational institution or educational authority;

creation of new innovative projects on the territory of the municipality;

diagnosable implementation of innovative educational technologies;

active lobbying by the public and partners in various institutions and organizations of the interests of innovative activities of an educational institution or educational management body;

the ratio of the share of budget expenditures on education with the share of funds raised for the development of education; and etc.

The rate of natural population decline will decrease.

The number of preschool children is projected to increase (by 115% by 2006). At the same time, the number of school-age children will decrease by 19.2%.

During this period, it is predicted that the positive dynamics of migration population growth will continue, but it will not compensate for the natural population decline.

Since 2008, a gradual decline in the working-age population is predicted; the number of labor resources by 2010 may decrease by 41 thousand people (2.4%) and amount to 1672 thousand people. The process of population aging will continue. The share of people over working age will be almost 1.4 times higher than the share of the child population. The demographic burden on the working-age population will increase to 596 people per 1,000 people of working age by 2010. At the same time, an increase in the number of people employed in the economy is predicted. In 2010, the number of employees will be 1250 thousand people. The number of unemployed citizens will decrease. The number of unemployed and, accordingly, the level of overall unemployment are projected to decrease from 7.1% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2010.

In general, the general state of the labor market in the Novosibirsk region in the coming years is predicted to be stable.

The volume of investments allocated for the development of the economy and social sphere of the region for the period 2008-2010 is projected to be at least 380 billion rubles, the index of physical volume of investments in 2010 will be 209.9% compared to 2006.

Conclusion

With the adoption of the Federal Program for the Development of Education, a new stage in its development was outlined. The Federal Program, which was the organizational basis of state policy in the field of education, determined the strategy for the development of this most important area, its priority, the need for state support and real financing. The Federal Program, based on the Laws of the Russian Federation “On Education”, “On Higher and Postgraduate Professional Education”, is aimed at the medium term (until 2010). The need to reinforce it with republican, regional and sectoral programs for the development of education is determined by their orientation towards taking into account national and regional socio-economic, environmental, cultural, demographic and other features, the development and implementation of specific activities falling under the jurisdiction of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments, providing targeted financing from budgets of all levels and extra-budgetary sources.

Glossary

Education is a purposeful process of upbringing and training in the interests of an individual, society, and state, accompanied by a statement of achievement by a citizen (student) established by the state educational levels (educational qualifications).

The receipt of education by a citizen (student) is understood as the achievement and confirmation of a certain educational qualification, which is certified by the appropriate document.

The education system is a set of interacting:

continuous educational programs and state educational standards of various levels and directions;

networks of educational institutions implementing them, regardless of their organizational and legal forms, types and types;

education authorities and institutions and organizations subordinate to them.

The quality of education is the correspondence of the results achieved in education to a given goal, that is, a measure of goal fulfillment.

Mission is the philosophy and purpose of an activity, the meaning of its implementation, the difference between a type of activity and other types of activity.

The philosophy of an activity determines its values and internal culture.

The purpose of an activity is characterized by the goals and objectives for the implementation of which the activity is carried out.

Health is a state of complete physical, spiritual and social well-being, and not just the absence of disease and physical defects.

Competence is an alienated, predetermined requirement for the educational preparation of students (state order, standard).

Competence - the ability to solve real life problems; proven readiness for action. The Council of Europe has identified five key competencies:

political and social competence;

ability to live in a multicultural world;

communication culture;

possession information technology;

ability to learn throughout life.

A social educational contract is a social contract concluded between citizens and the state regarding the conditions, processes and results of educational activities and public control over the state’s implementation of these conditions. It is implemented through the creation by citizens themselves of influential and effectively operating public educational associations.

Innovation is an innovation in any field of activity or the final result of innovative activity, realized in the form of:

a new or improved process used in the practice;

a new or improved product sold on the market.

Sustainable development - social development that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the ability to bequeath to future generations to meet their own needs.

Development is an irreversible, directed, natural change in objects, as a result of which their new qualitative state arises.

Investment attractiveness - in the broad sense of the word, means the presence of certain investment conditions that influence the investor's preferences in choosing a particular investment object. It is customary to distinguish its characteristics as the main components of investment attractiveness: quantitative - “investment potential” and qualitative - “investment risk”.

The directions and structure of activities, the presence of active and professional teams, and effective management are essential for investment attractiveness.

Corporate educational culture is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by society when solving problems of adaptation to changes in the external environment and internal integration, the effectiveness of which is sufficient to consider them valuable and transfer them to new members of the community through educational mechanisms as an adequate system of perception and resolution of these problems. The assessment of corporate educational culture is based on the degree of its compliance with the mission, strategy and goals of education.

Literature

1. Agapova T.N., Ivanova M.I. Forecasting indicators of general education at the level of a municipal district // Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. - 2007. - No. 2. - P.34-41.

2. Concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

3. The concept of modernization of Russian education for the period until 2010

4. Kryukova E. The time has come for training // Paid education. - 2005. - No. 4. - P.48-49

5. Kuleshov V.V. Strategy for socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region: humanitarian aspect.

6. Methods, models and systems for forecasting regional development: Textbook / Ed. G.R. Khasaeva. M.: Academy, 2006. - 380 p.

7. Development of the education system as the most important factor in the socio-economic development of the territory. Results of the implementation of the program of socio-economic development of the Kachkanar urban district for 2005 - 2006 under the section "Education".

8. Sergeev N.G. etc. Monitoring system for analysis and forecasting of the development of education and educational structures of the Russian Federation. M.: Press, 2002. - 204 p.

9. Todosiychuk A.V. Forecasting the development of the education system // Education in documents. - 2008. - No. 7. - P.23-37.

11. Ushakov A.K. Development of forecasts for socio-economic development of regions using a complex simulation model // Russian Economic Journal. - 2000. - No. 2. - P.15-19.

12. Federal Law “On Education” dated January 13, 1996 N 12-FZ, dated November 16, 1997 N 144-FZ, dated July 20, 2000 N 102-FZ, dated August 7, 2000 N 122-FZ, dated February 13, 2002 N 20 -FZ, dated 03/21/2002 N 31-FZ, dated 06/25/2002 N 71-FZ, dated 07/25/2002 N 112-FZ, dated 01/10/2003 N 11-FZ, dated 07/07/2003 N 123-FZ, dated 08.12 .2003 N 169-ФЗ, dated 03/05/2004 N 9-ФЗ, dated 06/30/2004 N 61-ФЗ, dated 07/20/2004 N 68-ФЗ, dated 08/22/2004 N 122-ФЗ, as amended by the Resolution of the Constitutional Courts of the Russian Federation dated October 24, 2000 N 13-P, Federal Laws dated December 27, 2000 N 150-FZ, dated December 30, 2001 N 194-FZ, dated December 24, 2002 N 176-FZ, dated December 23, 2003 N 186-FZ.

13. Federal target program for the development of education for 2006-2010.